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Clearance Analysis of CTC2 (on ELC4) to S-TRRJ HRS Radiator Rotation Envelope

In response to the planned retirement of the Space Shuttle Program, International Space Station (ISS) management began stockpiling spare parts on the ISS. Many of the larger orbital replacement units were stored on the Expedite the Processing of Experiments to Space Station (EXPRESS) Logistics Carriers (ELCs) mounted on the end of the S3 and P3 truss segments, immediately outboard of the Thermal Radiator Rotary Joints (TRRJs) and their attached radiators. In an August 2009 computer-aided design (CAD) assessment, it was determined that mounting the Cargo Transport Container (CTC) 2 on the inboard face of ELC4 as planned would create insufficient clearance between the CTC2 and the rotational envelope of the radiators when the TRRJs were rotated to a gamma angle of 35.0 degrees. The true clearance would depend on how the Unpressurized Cargo Carrier Attachment System (UCCAS) was mounted to the S3 truss and how the ELC4 was attached to it. If the plane of the UCCAS attachment points were tilted even slightly inboard, it would significantly change the clearance between CTC2 and the Starboard TRRJ (S-TRRJ) radiators. Additionally, since CTC2 would be covered in multilayer insulation (MLI), the true outer profile of CTC2 was not captured in the CAD models used for the clearance assessment. It was possible that, even if the S-TRRJ radiators cleared CTC2, they could snag the MLI covering. In the fall of 2010, the Image Science and Analysis Group (ISAG) was asked to perform an on-orbit clearance analysis to determine the location of CTC2 on ELC4 and the S-TRRJ radiators at the angle of closest approach so that a positive clearance could be assured. To provide the measurements as quickly as possible to aid in the assessment, it was decided that the clearance analysis would be broken into two phases. Phase I: The location and orientation of the UCCAS fittings, which support and hold the ELC4 in place, would be measured relative to the ISS Analytical Coordinate System (ISSACS) as defined by nine preexisting Space Vision System (SVS) targets affixed to the forward/zenith side of the S1 and S3 truss segments. The location of the outboard edge of the S-TRRJ radiator would also be measured when positioned at the angle of closest approach to CTC2 (gamma = 35.0 degrees). This data would allow the Digital Pre-Assembly Group to predict how the ELC4 would sit on the UCCAS and how that would translate into the clearance between CTC2 and the S-TRRJ radiators. Phase II: After the ELC4 was delivered and installed into the UCCAS, the position of the CTC2 mounting plate on the inboard face of ELC4, would be measured in the ISSACS coordinate system relative to the SVS control points used in Phase I. Although CTC2 would not yet be mounted on ELC4, the working envelope of CTC2 could be mathematically added to the measured position of ELC4 to produce a best estimate for CTC2's mounted location. Comparing CTC2's best estimated location to the S-TRRJ radiator (measured in Phase I); relative to the ISSACS coordinate system, would provide a direct measurement of the expected clearance. Due to the impending delivery of ELC4 (scheduled for January 2011), planning for the Phase I clearance analysis began immediately. Using the Dynamic Onboard Ubiquitous Graphics (DOUG) program, ISAG designed a way to acquire images of the SVS control points on truss segments S1 and S3, the aft facing edge of the S-TRRJ Heat Rejection Subsystem (HRS) radiator, and the three UCCAS latch mechanisms mounted on the zenith face of the S3 truss using the Space Station Remote Manipulator System (SSRMS). To minimize the number of SSRMS movements, the Special Purpose Dexterous Manipulator (SPDM) would be attached to the SSRMS. This would make it possible to park the SPDM in one position and acquire multiple images by changing the viewing orientation of the SPDM body cameras using the pan/tilt units on which they are mounted. Using this implementation concept, ISAG identified four SSRMS/SPDM positions from which the majority of the needed imagery could be acquired. Five additional images would be acquired using the CP-3 external ISS camera mounted on the S1 truss immediately inboard of ELC4. Based on a photogrammetric simulation, it was estimated that the measured location of the HRS radiator and UCCAS latch points would be accurate to about 0.3 in. in each of the three axes relative to ISSACS. Working with ROBO, ISAG collected 78 images of the ISS December 29, 2010. From this imagery, the best 40 were selected for use in the analysis process. The images were radiometrically enhanced to improve color and contrast and loaded into the FotoG analysis software along with the camera parameters and control data, which consisted of the coordinates for the nine SVS targets on the S1 and S3 trusses in the ISSACS coordinate system.

Liddle, Donn↗

Mapping Permafrost Variability and Degradation Using Seismic Surface Waves, Electrical Resistivity, and Temperature Sensing: A Case Study in Arctic Alaska

Subsurface processes significantly influence surface dynamics in permafrost regions, necessitating utilizing diverse geophysical methods to reliably constrain permafrost characteristics. This research uses multiple geophysical techniques to explore the spatial variability of permafrost in undisturbed tundra and its degradation in disturbed tundra in Utqiagvik, Alaska. Here, we integrate multiple quantitative techniques, including multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW), electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and ground temperature sensing, to study heterogeneity in permafrost’s geophysical characteristics. MASW results reveal active layer shear wave velocities (V s ) between 240 and 370 m/s, and permafrost V s between 450 and 1,700 m/s, typically showing a low-high-low velocity pattern. Additionally, we find an inverse relationship between in situ V s and ground temperature measurements. The V s profiles along with electrical resistivity profiles reveal cryostructures such as cryopeg and ice-rich zones in the permafrost layer. The integrated results of MASW and ERT provide valuable information for characterizing permafrost heterogeneity and cryostructure. Corroboration of these geophysical observations with permafrost core samples’ stratigraphies and salinity measurements further validates these findings. This combination of geophysical and temperature sensing methods along with permafrost core sampling confirms a robust approach for assessing permafrost’s spatial variability in coastal environments. Our results also indicate that civil infrastructure systems such as gravel roads and pile foundations affect permafrost by thickening the active layer, lowering the V s , and reducing heterogeneity. We show how the resulting V s profiles can be used to estimate key parameters for designing buildings in permafrost regions and maintaining existing infrastructure in polar regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microtearing instabilities and electron thermal transport in low and high collisionality NSTX discharges

Microtearing mode (MTM) real frequency, growth rate, magnetic fluctuation amplitude and resulting electron thermal transport are studied in systematic NSTX scans of relevant plasma parameters. Here, the dependency of the MTM real frequency and growth rate on plasma parameters, suitable for low and high collision NSTX discharges, is obtained by using the reduced MTM transport model. The plasma parameter dependencies are compared and found to be consistent with the results obtained from MTM using the Gyrokinetic GYRO code. The scaling trend of collision frequency and plasma beta is found to be consistent with the global energy confinement trend observed in the NSTX experiment. The strength of the magnetic fluctuation is found to be consistent with the gyrokinetic estimate. In earlier studies, it was found that the version of the Multi-Mode (MM) anomalous transport model, which did not contain the effect of MTMs, provided an appropriate description of the electron temperature profiles in standard tokamak discharges and not in spherical tokamaks. When the MM model, which involves transport associated with MTMs, is incorporated in the TRANSP code and is used in the study of electron thermal transport in NSTX discharges, it is observed that the agreement with the experimental electron temperature profile is substantially improved.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Solid State Quantum Refrigeration Superconducting, Absorption and Measurement Based (Final Technical Report)

During this DOE grant, DE-SC0017890, in place for the past six years, all proposed research was carried out and published in peer-reviewed papers, as well as other projects that emerged during the research. In that effort the research team accomplished all proposed research, as well as many closely related research projects discovered and conceived of during the grant. These works included “Efficient Quantum Measurement Engines”, a work published in Physical Review Letters, giving a theory of quantum measurement-based engines, which uses quantum measurement as a resource. These engines are designed to efficiently convert energy from the stochastic quantum measurement process into useful work. Further publications include “Experimental Realization of a Quantum Dot Energy Harvester”, a joint theory and experimental work in collaboration with the group of Charles Smith in Cambridge, UK, as well as long time theoretical collaborators, Rafael Sánchez and Björn Sothmann. This work, featured as an Editor’s Suggestion in Physical Review Letters, realized an earlier theoretical proposal of ours, whereby two resonant tunneling quantum dots are connected to a central electronic cavity that is heated by a hot energy source. We also published “Superconducting Quantum Refrigerator: Breaking and Rejoining Cooper Pairs with Magnetic Field Cycles” a work done in collaboration with experimentalist Francesco Giazotto from ENS Pisa, Italy, which also resulted in a patent. This paper, published in Phys. Rev. Applied, advanced the concept of a cyclic fridge based on the normal/superconducting phase transition together with layered materials separated by tunnel junctions. We also completed the proposed research on a heat transistor, publishing “Thermal transistor and thermometer based on Coulomb-coupled conductors”, carried out as a collaboration between my group and theorists Splettstoesser (Lund U., Sweden), Sothmann (U. Duisburg-Essen, Germany), and Sánchez (U. Autónoma de Madrid, Spain). We carried out an analysis of a quantum coupled to a quantum point contact as a sensitive thermometer and heat transistor. We found the optimal statistical estimator for the temperature and compared it with experiments on the same type of devices. We also investigated autonomous quantum absorption refrigerators using quantum dots to cool by using a very hot thermal reservoir to drive heat between two other reservoirs. In the article “Quantifying the quantum heat contribution from a driven superconducting circuit”, we demonstrated that for a driven superconducting circuit, we showed heat flow provided by a hot source to the qubit can be switched on and off by varying external parameters, the frequency and the intensity of the driving. In the work “Stochastic thermodynamic cycles of a mesoscopic thermoelectric engine”, we reconsidered the autonomous thermoelectric heat engine in terms of underlying cycles. Rather than periodic behavior, the cycles were stochastic in nature. Nevertheless, by undertaking a graph theoretical analysis of the elementary transport processed, great quantitative and qualitative insight could be found. We also considered the quantum measurement process and showed that a quantum version of Maxwell’s demon could be related to the work extraction of a quantum system, closely related to arrow-of-time measures for quantum measurement, as described in our article “Thermodynamics of quantum measurement and Maxwell's demon's arrow of time”. This work was selected in Phys. Rev. A as an Editor’s Suggestion. A recent preprint titled “Cyclic Superconducting Quantum Refrigerators Using Guided Fluxon Propagation” accomplished an important piece of this grant: to propose a new kind of quantum refrigerator using the dynamics of fluxons in a type II superconductor. This invention envisioned a race-track type geometry where fluxons are confined. By applying a gradient of magnetic field together with electric current in a Corbino geometry, the circulating fluxons can actively cool a cold reservoir, realizing a new type of cyclic superconducting refrigerator. We also investigated the possibility of thermal control from different points of view. The application of quantum measurement to the system gives a new kind of control on the system of interest – we have pioneered this approach and shown that measurement can boost the thermal power of quantum engines as described in “Continuous measurement boosted adiabatic quantum thermal machines”. The ability to have heat flows on demand is an outstanding challenge, and we have provided new solutions to this problem in Thermal control across a chain of electronic nanocavities” for a chain of electron cavities using gating voltage control. The control methods using qubit/qubit coupling to create absorption fridges at their most fundamental level have also been developed.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Bayesian parameter estimation and evaluation of the K -ω shear stress transport model for plane impinging jets

Numerical simulations with semi-empirical turbulence models are commonly used to model impinging jets, often used for cooling solid surfaces. In this work, the constants in the k-ω shear stress transport model in ANSYS FLUENT are calibrated to experimental velocity and heat transfer data for a plane turbulent impinging air jet to determine if Kennedy-O'Hagan calibration (Kennedy and O'Hagan 2001 J. R. Stat. Soc. B 63 425–64) can improve predictions of near-surface velocities and surface Nusselt numbers for similar flows. Impinging jets have been proposed to cool the target plates of the divertor in future magnetic fusion energy reactors, where simulations are used to estimate divertor performance. The flat-plate divertor (Wang et al 2009 Fusion Sci. Technol .56 1023–7) uses a plane jet of helium issuing from a B = 0.5 mm slot to cool a surface with radius of curvature of 44 B at a distance 4 B from the slot. Predictions from the calibrated numerical model are compared with independent experimental data at different flow conditions, as well as surface temperature data for a flat plate divertor test section. The contribution of this work is evaluation of the accuracy of a calibrated turbulence model for modest extrapolations in flow geometry and flow conditions for a plane impinging jet.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Planetary Boundary-Layer Height (PBLHT) Value-Added Product: Remote-Sensing Retrievals

The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is fundamental to numerous atmospheric processes, including aerosol mixing and transport, cloud evolution, and precipitation formation. A critical parameter in these studies is the PBL height (PBLHT). This vertical depth is essential for characterizing PBL structures in numerical simulations and serves as a primary metric for estimating flux exchanges between the Earth’s surface and the atmosphere. Radiosonde (SONDE) observations provide high-vertical-resolution measurements of temperature and moisture profiles and are widely used to estimate PBLHT (Liu and Liang 2010, Seidel et al. 2010). The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s PBLHT value-added product (VAP) for radiosonde measurements, known as PBLHTSONDE, applies three commonly used methods—the Heffter (1980) method, the Liu and Liang (2010) method, and the bulk Richardson number approach (Seibert et al. 2000)—to derive PBLHT. The PBLHTSONDE VAP operates routinely at ARM observatories and mobile facilities, with data available from the ARM Data Center shortly after sounding observations are collected (Sivaraman et al. 2013). However, radiosonde observations are limited by their low temporal resolution. Most stations launch soundings only twice daily, which constrains the ability to investigate and characterize the temporal evolution of the PBL using radiosonde data alone. The use of continuous remote-sensing observations provides high temporal resolution of PBLHT estimates. These observations include aerosol lidars (Dang et al. 2019, Su et al. 2020), Doppler lidar (DL; Tucker et al. 2009, Krishnamurthy et al. 2021), and water vapor and/or temperature lidars and radiometers (Turner et al. 2014). These observations provide valuable data on the PBL’s thermodynamic properties (e.g., water vapor and/or temperature lidars and radiometers), dynamic properties (e.g., DL), and distribution of tracer substances (e.g., aerosol lidars), all of which can be used to estimate PBLHT. ARM developed PBLHT estimates from the micropulse lidar (MPL; PBLHTMPL), Doppler lidar (PBLHTDL), and combined Raman lidar (RL)/atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI) thermodynamic profiles (PBLHTTHERMO). Each estimate captures different physical characteristics of the boundary layer—aerosol tracers, vertical velocity turbulence, and thermodynamic structure—and exhibits distinct strengths and limitations depending on the PBL regime and time of day. In addition, the ARM ceilometer (CEIL) provides three potential PBLHT candidates derived from the vendor's built-in algorithm. Building on these individual retrievals, ARM developed the PBLHTBEML VAP, which combines the four remote-sensing-based estimates with ancillary meteorological variables using the machine learning approach of Zhang et al. (2025) to produce a best-estimate PBLHT at 10-minute resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimate of the Mass and Radial Profile of the Orphan–Chenab Stream's Dwarf-galaxy Progenitor Using MilkyWay@home

We fit the mass and radial profile of the Orphan–Chenab Stream's (OCS) dwarf-galaxy progenitor by using turnoff stars in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and the Dark Energy Camera to constrain N-body simulations of the OCS progenitor falling into the Milky Way on the 1.5 PetaFLOPS MilkyWay@home distributed supercomputer. We infer the internal structure of the OCS's progenitor under the assumption that it was a spherically symmetric dwarf galaxy composed of a stellar system embedded in an extended dark matter halo. We optimize the evolution time, the baryonic and dark matter scale radii, and the baryonic and dark matter masses of the progenitor using a differential evolution algorithm. The likelihood score for each set of parameters is determined by comparing the simulated tidal stream to the angular distribution of OCS stars observed in the sky. We fit the total mass of the OCS's progenitor to (2.0 ± 0.3) × 10 7 M ⊙ with a mass-to-light ratio of γ = 73.5 ± 10.6 and (1.1 ± 0.2) × 10 6 M ⊙ within 300 pc of its center. Within the progenitor's half-light radius, we estimate a total mass of (4.0 ± 1.0) × 10 5 M ⊙ . We also fit the current sky position of the progenitor's remnant to be (α, δ) = ((166.0 ± 0.9)°, (–11.1 ± 2.5)°) and show that it is gravitationally unbound at the present time. The measured progenitor mass is on the low end of previous measurements and, if confirmed, lowers the mass range of ultrafaint dwarf galaxies. Our optimization assumes a fixed Milky Way potential, OCS orbit, and radial profile for the progenitor, ignoring the impact of the Large Magellanic Cloud.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Thermalized axion inflation

We analyze the dynamics of inflationary models with a coupling of the inflaton φ to gauge fields of the form φ F F-tilde / f , as in the case of axions. It is known that this leads to an instability, with exponential amplification of gauge fields, controlled by the parameter ξ= φ-dot /(2 fH ), which can strongly affect the generation of cosmological perturbations and even the background. We show that scattering rates involving gauge fields can become larger than the expansion rate H , due to the very large occupation numbers, and create a thermal bath of particles of temperature T during inflation. In the thermal regime, energy is transferred to smaller scales, radically modifying the predictions of this scenario. We thus argue that previous constraints on ξ are alleviated. If the gauge fields have Standard Model interactions, which naturally provides reheating, they thermalize already at ξ∼>2.9, before perturbativity constraints and also before backreaction takes place. In absence of SM interactions (i.e. for a dark photon), we find that gauge fields and inflaton perturbations thermalize if ξ∼>3.4; however, observations require ξ∼>6, which is above the perturbativity and backreaction bounds and so a dedicated study is required. After thermalization, though, the system should evolve non-trivially due to the competition between the instability and the gauge field thermal mass. If the thermal mass and the instabilities equilibrate, we expect an equilibrium temperature of T {sub eq} ≅ ξ H / g-bar where g-bar is the effective gauge coupling. Finally, we estimate the spectrum of perturbations if φ is thermal and find that the tensor to scalar ratio is suppressed by H /(2 T ), if tensors do not thermalize.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

KGML-ag: a modeling framework of knowledge-guided machine learning to simulate agroecosystems: a case study of estimating N<sub>2</sub>O emission using data from mesocosm experiments

Abstract. Agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) emission accounts for a non-trivial fraction of global greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. To date, estimating N2O fluxes from cropland remains a challenging task because the related microbial processes (e.g., nitrification and denitrification) are controlled by complex interactions among climate, soil, plant and human activities. Existing approaches such as process-based (PB) models have well-known limitations due to insufficient representations of the processes or uncertainties of model parameters, and due to leverage recent advances in machine learning (ML) a new method is needed to unlock the “black box” to overcome its limitations such as low interpretability, out-of-sample failure and massive data demand. In this study, we developed a first-of-its-kind knowledge-guided machine learning model for agroecosystems (KGML-ag) by incorporating biogeophysical and chemical domain knowledge from an advanced PB model, ecosys, and tested it by comparing simulating daily N2O fluxes with real observed data from mesocosm experiments. The gated recurrent unit (GRU) was used as the basis to build the model structure. To optimize the model performance, we have investigated a range of ideas, including (1) using initial values of intermediate variables (IMVs) instead of time series as model input to reduce data demand; (2) building hierarchical structures to explicitly estimate IMVs for further N2O prediction; (3) using multi-task learning to balance the simultaneous training on multiple variables; and (4) pre-training with millions of synthetic data generated from ecosys and fine-tuning with mesocosm observations. Six other pure ML models were developed using the same mesocosm data to serve as the benchmark for the KGML-ag model. Results show that KGML-ag did an excellent job in reproducing the mesocosm N2O fluxes (overall r2=0.81, and RMSE=3.6 mgNm-2d-1 from cross validation). Importantly, KGML-ag always outperforms the PB model and ML models in predicting N2O fluxes, especially for complex temporal dynamics and emission peaks. Besides, KGML-ag goes beyond the pure ML models by providing more interpretable predictions as well as pinpointing desired new knowledge and data to further empower the current KGML-ag. We believe the KGML-ag development in this study will stimulate a new body of research on interpretable ML for biogeochemistry and other related geoscience processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Extreme-Scale Bayesian Inference for Uncertainty Quantification of Complex Simulations

Uncertainty quantification (UQ)—that is, quantifying uncertainties in complex mathematical models and their large-scale computational implementations—is widely viewed as one of the outstanding challenges facing the field of CS&E over the coming decade. The EUREKA project set to address the most difficult class of UQ problems: those for which both the underlying PDE model as well as the uncertain parameters are of extreme scale. In the project we worked on these extreme-scale challenges in the following four areas: 1. Scalable parallel algorithms for sampling and characterizing the posterior distribution that exploit the structure of the underlying PDEs and parameter-to-observable map. These include structure-exploiting versions of the randomized maximum likelihood method, which aims to overcome the intractability of employing conventional MCMC methods for solving extreme-scale Bayesian inversion problems by appealing to and adapting ideas from large-scale PDE-constrained optimization, which have been very successful at exploring high-dimensional spaces. 2. Scalable parallel algorithms for construction of prior and likelihood functions based on learning methods and non-parametric density estimation. Constructing problem-specific priors remains a critical challenge in Bayesian inference, and more so in high dimensions. Another challenge is construction of likelihood functions that capture unmodeled couplings between observations and parameters. We will create parallel algorithms for non-parametric density estimation using high dimensional N-body methods and combine them with supervised learning techniques for the construction of priors and likelihood functions. 3. Bayesian inadequacy models, which augment physics models with stochastic models that represent their imperfections. The success of the Bayesian inference framework depends on the ability to represent the uncertainty due to imperfections of the mathematical model of the phenomena of interest. This is a central challenge in UQ, especially for large-scale models. We propose to develop the mathematical tools to address these challenges in the context of extreme-scale problems. 4. Parallel scalable algorithms for Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED). Bayesian inversion yields quantified uncertainties in the model parameters, which can be propagated forward through the model to yield uncertainty in outputs of interest. This opens the way for designing new experiments to reduce the uncertainties in the model parameters and model predictions. Such experimental design problems have been intractable for large-scale problems using conventional methods; we will create OED algorithms that exploit the structure of the PDE model and the parameter-to-output map to overcome these challenges. Parallel algorithms for these four problems were created, analyzed, prototyped, implemented, tuned, and scaled up for leading-edge supercomputers, including UT-Austin’s own 10 petaflops Stampede system, ANL’s Mira system, and ORNL’s Titan system. While our focus is on fundamental mathematical/computational methods and algorithms, we will assess our methods on model problems derived from several DOE mission applications, including multiscale mechanics and ice sheet dynamics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Implementation and Comparison of Acoustic Travel-Time Measurement Procedures for the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager Time-Distance Helioseismology Pipeline

The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instrument on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite is designed to produce high-resolution Doppler velocity maps of oscillations at the solar surface with high temporal cadence. To take advantage of these high-quality oscillation data, a time-distance helioseismology pipeline has been implemented at the Joint Science Operations Center (JSOC) at Stanford University. The aim of this pipeline is to generate maps of acoustic travel times from oscillations on the solar surface, and to infer subsurface 3D flow velocities and sound-speed perturbations. The wave travel times are measured from cross covariances of the observed solar oscillation signals. For implementation into the pipeline we have investigated three different travel-time definitions developed in time-distance helioseismology: a Gabor wavelet fitting (Kosovichev and Duvall, 1997), a minimization relative to a reference cross-covariance function (Gizon and Birch, 2002), and a linearized version of the minimization method (Gizon and Birch, 2004). Using Doppler velocity data from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) instrument on board SOHO, we tested and compared these definitions for the mean and difference travel-time perturbations measured from reciprocal signals. Although all three procedures return similar travel times in a quiet Sun region, the method of Gizon and Birch (2004) gives travel times that are significantly different from the others in a magnetic (active) region. Thus, for the pipeline implementation we chose the procedures of Kosovichev and Duvall (1997) and Gizon and Birch (2002). We investigated the relationships among these three travel-time definitions, their sensitivities to fitting parameters, and estimated the random errors they produce

Couvidat, S.↗

A Parametric Study of Erupting Flux Rope Rotation: Modeling the 'Cartwheel CME' on 9 April 2008

The rotation of erupting filaments in the solar corona is addressed through a parametric simulation study of unstable, rotating flux ropes in bipolar force-free initial equilibrium. The Lorentz force due to the external shear-field component and the relaxation of tension in the twisted field are the major contributors to the rotation in this model, while reconnection with the ambient field is of minor importance, due to the field's simple structure. In the low-beta corona, the rotation is not guided by the changing orientation of the vertical field component's polarity inversion line with height. The model yields strong initial rotations which saturate in the corona and differ qualitatively from the profile of rotation vs. height obtained in a recent simulation of an eruption without preexisting flux rope. Both major mechanisms writhe the flux rope axis, converting part of the initial twist helicity, and produce rotation profiles which, to a large part, are very similar within a range of shear-twist combinations. A difference lies in the tendency of twist-driven rotation to saturate at lower heights than shear-driven rotation. For parameters characteristic of the source regions of erupting filaments and coronal mass ejections, the shear field is found to be the dominant origin of rotations in the corona and to be required if the rotation reaches angles of order 90 degrees and higher; it dominates even if the twist exceeds the threshold of the helical kink instability. The contributions by shear and twist to the total rotation can be disentangled in the analysis of observations if the rotation and rise profiles are simultaneously compared with model calculations. The resulting twist estimate allows one to judge whether the helical kink instability occurred. This is demonstrated for the erupting prominence in the "Cartwheel CME" on 9 April 2008, which has shown a rotation of approximately 115 deg. up to a height of 1.5 Solar R above the photosphere. Out of a range of initial equilibria which include strongly kink-unstable (Phi = 5 pi), weakly kink-unstable (Phi = 3.5 pi), and kink-stable (Phi = 2.5 pi) configurations, only the evolution of the weakly kink-unstable flux rope matches the observations in their entirety.

initiation and propagation↗

Measuring the Hubble constant and our Virgo-infall velocity independently

A sample of spiral galaxies with B(sub T) less than 14.5 located in two local volumes, one in the direction of, but behind, the Virgo Cluster (behind-Virgo volume (BV)) and the other in the opposite direction (anti-Virgo volume (AV)), were used via a Tully-Fisher (TF) relation to derive the following two parameters: H(sub AB), the mean Hubble ratio between AV and BV, and delta v(sub parallel), the peculiar velocity of the Local Group in the direction of the Virgo Cluster (VC) with respect to a uniformly expanding reference system defined by our AV and BV sub-samples. The two sampled volumes, separated by a velocity interval of 5600 km/s, form an antipodal pair. This particular geometry not only allows us to derive the two parameters independently but also reduces the dynamical effect of the Local Supercluster on H(sub AB) without increasing the Malmquist bias. By limiting our sample to spiral galaxies having large velocity widths W(sub R), we effectively reduce the TF scatter and Malmquist bias in our sample. The TF zero point and dispersion were then determined by further correcting for the small residual Malmquist bias. An additional sample of fainter galaxies was used to test for a non-Gaussian tail to the TF disperison. We found no evidence for such a tail and formally give an upper limit of about 18% for the fractional contribution of an unseen tail. The average intrinsic TF dispersion for the dominant Gaussian component is sigma(sub TF)(sup 0) approximately 0.33 mag for W(sub R) approximately equal to or greater than 180 km/s. Our numerical results are delta v(sub parallel) approximately equals 414 +/- 82 km/s and H(sub AB) approximately equals (84.0 +/- 2.4)(1 + epsilon) km/s Mpc, where (1 + epsilon) accounts for any systematic error between the calibrators and the sample galaxies. Various dynamical models were tested to explore the effect on H(sub AB) of the uncertainties in the local velocity field. Constrained by our observed delta v(sub parallel) as well as other observational quantities, we found that the rms deviation from unity of H(sub AB)/H(sub 0) (where H(sub 0) is the Hubble constant for each model) is 5%, making H(sub AB) a good indicator for H(sub 0). Taking this variation as an additional error, our formal estimate for the Hubble constant is H(sub 0) approximately equals (84 +/- 5)(1 + epsilon) km/s Mpc.

Lu, Nanyao Y.↗

A Study of the Non-Thermal X-Ray Emission of Shell-Type Supernova Remnants

We present an analysis of the X-ray spectrum of the Galactic shell-type SNR G347.3-0.5 (RX 51713.7-3946). This SNR is a member of a growing class of SNRs which are dynamically young, shell-type sources that emit non-thermal X-rays from specific regions on their outer shells. By performing a joint spectral analysis of data from observations made of G347.3-0.5 using the ROSAT PSPC, the ASCA GIS and the RXTE PCA, we have fit the spectra of particular regions of this SNR (including the bright northwestern and southwestern rims, the northeast rim and the interior diffuse emission) over the approximate energy range of 0.5 through 30 keV. We find that fits to the spectra of this SNR over this energy range using the SRCUT model were superior to a simple power law model or the SRESC model. We find that the inclusion of a thermal model with the SRCUT model helps to improve the fit to the observed X-ray spectrum: this represents the first detection of thermal X-ray emission from G347.3-0.5. Thermal emission appears to be more clearly associated with the diffuse emission in the interior of the SNR than with the bright X-ray emitting rims. A weak emission feature seen near 6.4 keV in the RXTE PCA spectrum most likely originates from diffuse X-ray emission from the surrounding Galactic Ridge rather than from G347.3-0.5 itself. We have analyzed our RXTE PCA data to search for pulsations from a recently discovered radio pulsar (PSR 51713-3949) which may be associated with G347.3-0.5, and we do not detect any X-ray pulsations at the measured radio period of 392 ms. Using the best-fit parameters obtained from the SRCUT model, we estimate the maximum energy of cosmic-ray electrons accelerated by the rims of G347.3-0.5 to be 19-25 TeV (assuming a magnetic field strength of B = 10muG), consistent with the results of Ellison et al. We present a broadband (radio to gamma ray) photon energy-flux spectrum for the northwestern rim of G347.3-0.5, where we have fit the spectrum using a more sophisticated synchrotron-inverse Compton model with a variable magnetic field strength. Our fit derived from this model yields a maximum energy of only 8.8 (+4.1) (-3.4) TeV for the accelerated cosmic-ray electrons and a much greater magnetic field strength of 150 (+250) (-80). Finally, we compare the gross properties of G347.3-0.5 with other SNRs known to possess X-ray spectra dominated by non-thermal emission.

Allen, Glenn E.↗

The Winds of B Supergiants

We present the most suitable data sets available in the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) archive for the study of time-dependent stellar winds in early B supergiants. The UV line profile variability in 11 B0 to B3 stars is analyzed, compared and discussed, based on 16 separate data sets comprising over 600 homogeneously reduced high-resolution spectrograms. The targets include 'normal' stars with moderate rotation rates and examples of rapid rotators. A gallery of grey-scale images (dynamic spectra) is presented, which demonstrates the richness and range of wind variability and highlights different structures in the winds of these stars. This work emphasizes the suitability of B supergiants for wind studies, under-pinned by the fact that they exhibit unsaturated wind lines for a wide range of ionization. The wind activity of B supergiants is substantial and has highly varied characteristics. The variability evident in individual stars is classified and described in terms of discrete absorption components, spontaneous absorption, bowed structures, recurrence, and ionization variability and stratification. Similar structures can occur in stars of different fundamental parameters but also different structures may occur in the same star at a given epoch. We discuss the physical phenomena that may be associated with the spectral signatures, and highlight the challenges that these phenomena present to theoretical studies of time-dependent outflows in massive stars. In addition, SEI line-synthesis modelling of the UV wind lines is used to provide further information about the state of the winds in our program stars. Typically the range, implied by the line profile variability, in the product of mass-loss rate and ion fraction (M qi) is a factor of approximately 1.5, when integrated between 0.2 and 0.9 v infinity; it it can however be several times larger over localized velocity regions. At a given effective temperature the mean relative ion ratios can differ by a factor of 5. The general excess in predicted (forward-scattered) emission in the low velocity regime is discussed in turns of structured outflows. Mean ion fractions are estimated over the B0 to B1 spectral classes, and trends in the ionic ratios as a function of wind velocity are described. The low values obtained for the ion fractions of UV resonance lines may reflect the role of clumping in the wind.

Massa, Derck↗

An Initial Non-Equilibrium Porous-Media Model for CFD Simulation of Stirling Regenerators

The objective of this paper is to define empirical parameters (or closwre models) for an initial thermai non-equilibrium porous-media model for use in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes for simulation of Stirling regenerators. The two CFD codes currently being used at Glenn Research Center (GRC) for Stirling engine modeling are Fluent and CFD-ACE. The porous-media models available in each of these codes are equilibrium models, which assmne that the solid matrix and the fluid are in thermal equilibrium at each spatial location within the porous medium. This is believed to be a poor assumption for the oscillating-flow environment within Stirling regenerators; Stirling 1-D regenerator models, used in Stirling design, we non-equilibrium regenerator models and suggest regenerator matrix and gas average temperatures can differ by several degrees at a given axial location end time during the cycle. A NASA regenerator research grant has been providing experimental and computational results to support definition of various empirical coefficients needed in defining a noa-equilibrium, macroscopic, porous-media model (i.e., to define "closure" relations). The grant effort is being led by Cleveland State University, with subcontractor assistance from the University of Minnesota, Gedeon Associates, and Sunpower, Inc. Friction-factor and heat-transfer correlations based on data taken with the NASAlSunpower oscillating-flow test rig also provide experimentally based correlations that are useful in defining parameters for the porous-media model; these correlations are documented in Gedeon Associates' Sage Stirling-Code Manuals. These sources of experimentally based information were used to define the following terms and parameters needed in the non-equilibrium porous-media model: hydrodynamic dispersion, permeability, inertial coefficient, fluid effective thermal conductivity (including themal dispersion and estimate of tortuosity effects}, and fluid-solid heat transfer coefficient. Solid effective thermal conductivity (including the effect of tortuosity) was also estimated. Determination of the porous-media model parameters was based on planned use in a CFD model of Infinia's Stirling Technology Demonstration Convertor (TDC), which uses a random-fiber regenerator matrix. The non-equilibrium porous-media model presented is considered to be an initial, or "draft," model for possible incorporation in commercial CFD codes, with the expectation that the empirical parameters will likely need to be updated once resulting Stirling CFD model regenerator and engine results have been analyzed. The emphasis of the paper is on use of available data to define empirical parameters (and closure models) needed in a thermal non-equilibrium porous-media model for Stirling regenerator simulation. Such a model has not yet been implemented by the authors or their associates. However, it is anticipated that a thermal non-equilibrium model such as that presented here, when iacorporated in the CFD codes, will improve our ability to accurately model Stirling regenerators with CFD relative to current thermal-equilibrium porous-media models.

Tew, Roy↗

The Winds of B Supergiants

We present the most suitable data sets available in the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) archive for the study of time-dependent stellar winds in early B supergiants. The UV line profile variability in 11 B0 to B3 stars is analyzed, compared and discussed, based on 16 separate data sets comprising over 600 homogeneously reduced high-resolution spectrograms. The targets include 'normal' stars with moderate rotation rates and examples of rapid rotators. A gallery of grey-scale images (dynamic spectra) is presented, which demonstrates the richness and range of wind variability and highlights different structures in the winds of these stars. This work emphasises the suitability of B supergiants for wind studies, under-pinned by the fact that they exhibit unsaturated wind lines for a wide range of ionization. The wind activity of B supergiants is substantial and has highly varied characteristics. The variability evident in individual stars is classified and described in terms of discrete absorption components, spontaneous absorption, bowed structures, recurrence, and ionization variability and stratification. Similar structures can occur in stars of different fundamental parameters, but also different structures may occur in the same star at a given epoch. We discuss the physical phenomena that may be associated with the spectral signatures, and highlight the challenges that these phenomena present to theoretical studies of time-dependent outflows in massive stars. In addition, SEI line-synthesis modelling of the UV wind lines is used to provide further information about the state of the winds in our program stars. Typically the range, implied by the line profile variability, in the product of mass-loss rate and ion fraction (M (dot) q(sub i)) is a factor of approximately 1.5, when integrated between 0.2 and 0.9 v infinity; it can however be several times larger over localized velocity regions. At a given effective temperature the mean relative ion ratios can differ by a factor of 5. The general excess in predicted (forward-scattered) emission in the low velocity regime is discussed in terms of structured outflows. Mean ion fractions are estimated over the B0 to B1 spectral classes, and trends in the ionic ratios as a function of wind velocity are described. The low values obtained for the ion fractions of UV resonance lines may reflect the role of clumping in the wind.

Massa, D.↗

Tuning and Robustness Analysis for the Orion Absolute Navigation System

The Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) is currently under development as NASA's next-generation spacecraft for exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit. The MPCV is set to perform an orbital test flight, termed Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1), some time in late 2014. The navigation system for the Orion spacecraft is being designed in a Multi-Organizational Design Environment (MODE) team including contractor and NASA personnel. The system uses an Extended Kalman Filter to process measurements and determine the state. The design of the navigation system has undergone several iterations and modifications since its inception, and continues as a work-in-progress. This paper seeks to show the efforts made to-date in tuning the filter for the EFT-1 mission and instilling appropriate robustness into the system to meet the requirements of manned space ight. Filter performance is affected by many factors: data rates, sensor measurement errors, tuning, and others. This paper focuses mainly on the error characterization and tuning portion. Traditional efforts at tuning a navigation filter have centered around the observation/measurement noise and Gaussian process noise of the Extended Kalman Filter. While the Orion MODE team must certainly address those factors, the team is also looking at residual edit thresholds and measurement underweighting as tuning tools. Tuning analysis is presented with open loop Monte-Carlo simulation results showing statistical errors bounded by the 3-sigma filter uncertainty covariance. The Orion filter design uses 24 Exponentially Correlated Random Variable (ECRV) parameters to estimate the accel/gyro misalignment and nonorthogonality. By design, the time constant and noise terms of these ECRV parameters were set to manufacturer specifications and not used as tuning parameters. They are included in the filter as a more analytically correct method of modeling uncertainties than ad-hoc tuning of the process noise. Tuning is explored for the powered-flight ascent phase, where measurements are scarce and unmodelled vehicle accelerations dominate. On orbit, there are important trade-off cases between process and measurement noise. On entry, there are considerations about trading performance accuracy for robustness. Process Noise is divided into powered flight and coasting ight and can be adjusted for each phase and mode of the Orion EFT-1 mission. Measurement noise is used for the integrated velocity measurements during pad alignment. It is also used for Global Positioning System (GPS) pseudorange and delta- range measurements during the rest of the flight. The robustness effort has been focused on maintaining filter convergence and performance in the presence of unmodeled error sources. These include unmodeled forces on the vehicle and uncorrected errors on the sensor measurements. Orion uses a single-frequency, non-keyed GPS receiver, so the effects due to signal distortion in Earth's ionosphere and troposphere are present in the raw measurements. Results are presented showing the efforts to compensate for these errors as well as characterize the residual effect for measurement noise tuning. Another robustness tool in use is tuning the residual edit thresholds. The trade-off between noise tuning and edit thresholds is explored in the context of robustness to errors in dynamics models and sensor measurements. Measurement underweighting is also presented as a method of additional robustness when processing highly accurate measurements in the presence of large filter uncertainties.

Holt, Greg N.↗