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DOE OSTI2017

Impact of Trucking Network Flow on Preferred Biorefinery Locations in the Southern United States

The impact of the trucking transportation network flow was modeled for the southern United States. The study addresses a gap in existing research by applying a Bayesian logistic regression and Geographic Information System (GIS) geospatial analysis to predict biorefinery site locations. A one-way trucking cost assuming a 128.8 km (80-mile) haul distance was estimated by the Biomass Site Assessment model. The “median family income,” “timberland annual growth-to-removal ratio,” and “transportation delays” were significant in determining mill location. Transportation delays that directly impacted the costs of trucking are presented. Here, a logistic model with Bayesian inference was used to identify preferred site locations, and locations not preferential for a mill location. The model predicted that higher probability locations for smaller biomass mills (feedstock capacity, the size of sawmills) were in southern Alabama, southern Georgia, southeast Mississippi, southern Virginia, western Louisiana, western Arkansas, and eastern Texas. The higher probability locations for large capacity mills (feedstock capacity, the size for pulp and paper mills) were in southeastern Alabama, southern Georgia, central North Carolina, and the Mississippi Delta regions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

EverGREEN 2045: An Energy Mix to Decarbonize Washington State

Washington State’s future resource mix is likely to be comprised of intermittent renewables and carbon-free generation including hydropower by 2045. Generation will likely be comprised of wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), batteries, pumped storage hydropower (PSH), existing nuclear power plants, and potentially enhanced geothermal systems and advanced nuclear reactor technologies. To assess the cost and stability of the future resource mix, we partner with X-energy (advanced reactor design) and AltaRock Energy (enhanced geothermal system) for proprietary cost data. After estimating the costs of these two new technologies, we design plausible future resource mix scenarios to meet Washington State’s Clean Energy Transformation Act which transitions the state to carbon-free generation by 2045. We assess the cost and stability of the future resource mix with power system analysis tools, finding revenues are sufficient to cover variable operating and maintenance costs for most technologies providing power in 2030 and 2045, but capacity payments or power purchase agreements will likely be necessary for flexible resources, including enhanced geothermal systems and advanced nuclear reactors, to participate in the future resource mix.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Frequency Analysis of Solar PV Power to Enable Optimal Building Load Control

In this paper, we present a flexibility estimation mechanism for buildings’ thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) to enable the distribution level consumption of the majority of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation by local building TCLs. The local consumption of PV generation provides several advantages to the grid operation as well as the consumers, such as reducing the stress on the distribution network, minimizing voltage fluctuations and two-way power flows in the distribution network, and reducing the required battery storage capacity for PV integration. This would result in increasing the solar PV generation penetration levels. The aims of this study are twofold. First, spectral (frequency) analyses of solar PV power generation together with the power consumption of multiple building TCLs (such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, water heaters, and refrigerators) are performed. These analyses define the bandwidth over which these TCLs can operate and also describe the PV generation frequency bandwidth. Such spectral analyses, in frequency domain, can help identify the flexible components of PV generation that can be consumed by the various TCLs through optimal building load utilization. Second, a quadratic optimization problem based on model predictive control is formulated to allow consuming most of the low and medium frequency content of the PV power locally by building TCLs, while maintaining occupants’ comfort and TCLs’ physical constraints. The solution to the proposed optimization problem is achieved using optimal control strategies. Numerical results show that most of the low and medium frequency content of the PV generation can be consumed locally by building TCLs. The remaining high-frequency content of the PV generation can then be stored/offset using energy storage systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Chapter 6: Wind Energy: Effects on Bats

Utility-scale wind energy facilities require no fuel, consume no water, and produce no greenhouse gas emissions or other pollutants during energy production. Wind power currently supplies approximately 6.4% of the electricity consumed in the United States (U.S.), with continued growth expected in the coming years. Although further expansion of wind power is anticipated to provide environmental and economic benefits, there are increasing concerns about bat fatalities occurring at wind energy facilities across North America. Recent estimates place the number of bat fatalities in the several hundreds of thousands on an annual basis, and that number is projected to rise. As a result, population-level impacts of wind turbine-caused mortality are of increasing concern. For example, modeling efforts for a widespread species, the hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus), indicate that the population could decline by 90% within 50 years, assuming no growth in installed wind power capacity and no significant implementation of conservation measures. Given increasing demand for wind energy and increasing evidence suggesting that bats are attracted to wind turbines, the need to develop cost-effective and practical impact minimization strategies is a high priority. Current strategies include siting restrictions and operational minimization, both of which limit wind power generation. Potential solutions that do not limit power generation include broadcasting ultrasound from wind turbines or using ultraviolet (UV) light to deter bats from approaching and entering the rotor-swept area where fatalities occur. Another possible solution is the development of turbine-surface materials that reduce the relative attractiveness of wind turbine towers to bats. In this chapter, we provide a succinct summary of known impacts of wind energy on bats and present current and future research priorities. We also describe the challenges and opportunities associated with developing and implementing effective solutions to minimize wind turbine-caused bat fatality.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Development of three-dimensional models for WIPP performance assessment using PFLOTRAN - 15073

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), located in southeastern New Mexico, has been developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the deep geologic disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. WIPP performance assessment (PA) calculations estimate the probability and consequence of potential radionuclide releases from the repository to the accessible environment for a regulatory period of 10,000 years after facility closure. To date, WIPP PA calculations have employed multiple 2D numerical models requiring simplification of the mesh and processes. Introducing 3D numerical models within WIPP PA enables increasingly realistic representations of the WIPP subsurface domain and improved flexibility for incorporating relevant features. Furthermore, the increased computing capacity afforded by modern hardware architectures enables this 3D modeling. Modeling in 3D will be more flexible because less homogenization is required and better accuracy of the results can be obtained by making fewer assumptions and/or simplifications. The use of PFLOTRAN, a state-of-art massively parallel subsurface flow and reactive transport code, will enable this 3D modeling, and eliminate the need for multiple related, but decoupled 2D models. However, there are capabilities that PFLOTRAN must be demonstrated in order to fulfill requirements for WIPP PA. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Nationwide Supply Chain for Circularity of PET and Olefin Plastics

PET (Polyethylene Terephthalate, #1) and olefin plastics including HDPE (High Density Polyethylene, #2), LDPE/LLDPE (Low Density/Linear Low-Density Polyethylene, #4) and PP (Polypropylene, #5) together comprise nearly 80% of the U.S. plastic market. Due to their high market share and extensive application in packaging these polymers have better potential for circularity than other polymer types. To understand the potential of future scenarios with higher recycling rates, supply chain scenarios for PET and olefin plastic packaging need to be analyzed with increased availability and collection of plastics. Currently there exists a knowledge gap to understand the circular supply chain on a national level. Performing a nationwide analysis introduces certain challenges such as variability in the plastic mix of the recycling stream in different municipalities, lack of collection of some types of plastics, regional differences in cost and estimating a national supply curve based on state level access rate and participation rate. Currently, a limited number of Plastic Reclaimers recycle the nation’s collected plastic involving transportation over long distances surpassing state boundaries. Modeling a nationwide scenario instead of regional/state based scenario will facilitate transportation beyond state boundaries for the development of a circular economy. A Mixed-integer Linear Programming model was developed, to identify the optimal location and capacity of the Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) nationwide subject to maximizing the profit margin of the industrial entities within the model. We considered three different scenarios including the base case scenario (S1) collecting 2.27 million metric tons/year as well as two additional scenarios with available plastic supply of 1.8 times (S2) and 2.2 times (S3) of the base case scenario. The model identified 166, 275 and 319 counties as potential MRF locations for scenarios S1, S2 and S3 respectively. Compared to the existing number of counties having MRFs in the US, the model results indicated a reduction of 38% of MRFs for S1. For S2 and S3, the number of counties with MRFs increased 3% and 20% respectively compared to counties currently with MRFs. The average profit remains constant between $180-$181/ton regardless of the increased plastic collection.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗

DOE OSTI2013

Using Multi-scale Dynamic Rupture Models to Improve Ground Motion Estimates: ALCF-2 Early Science Program Technical Report

This project uses dynamic rupture simulations to investigate high-frequency seismic energy generation. The relevant phenomena (frictional breakdown, shear heating, effective normal-stress fluctuations, material damage, etc.) controlling rupture are strongly interacting and span many orders of magnitude in spatial scale, requiring highresolution simulations that couple disparate physical processes (e.g., elastodynamics, thermal weakening, pore-fluid transport, and heat conduction). Compounding the computational challenge, we know that natural faults are not planar, but instead have roughness that can be approximated by power laws potentially leading to large, multiscale fluctuations in normal stress. The capacity to perform 3D rupture simulations that couple these processes will provide guidance for constructing appropriate source models for high-frequency ground motion simulations. The improved rupture models from our multi-scale dynamic rupture simulations will be used to conduct physicsbased (3D waveform modeling-based) probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for California. These calculation will provide numerous important seismic hazard results, including a state-wide extended earthquake rupture forecast with rupture variations for all significant events, a synthetic seismogram catalog for thousands of scenario events and more than 5000 physics-based seismic hazard curves for California.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Phosphorus Removal from Si-Fe Alloy Using SiO{sub 2}-Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}-CaO Slag

Phosphorus removal from silicon using a combination of solvent and slag refining, with lower carbon footprint and lower energy requirement than the current industrial process, is investigated by evaluating the distribution of phosphorus between Si-Fe alloy and SiO{sub 2}-Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}-CaO slag. An alloy with the composition of silicon-20 wt pct iron was treated with a slag of CaO-Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}-SiO{sub 2} at 1600 °C. The effects of slag basicity and oxygen potential on the distribution of phosphorus were studied via changing the slag composition. The critical oxygen potential, at which the maximum removal of phosphorus is obtained, was calculated as 6.3 × 10{sup −18} atm. Normalized distribution and phosphate capacity values were calculated for each slag composition with the purpose of isolating the effect of basicity. In a separate experiment, calcium was also added to the alloy with the purpose of improving the removal efficiency of phosphorus. Results show that the addition of calcium can almost double the partition ratio of phosphorus. The removal rate of phosphorus was quantified via kinetics calculations, and the total mass-transfer rate of phosphorus was estimated to be 8.58 × 10{sup −7} cm/s.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

CO 2 Sorption in Moisture Swing Anion Exchange Resins for Direct Air Capture: Experimental Isotherm Determination and Modeling

Moisture swing (MS) sorption is a promising direct air capture (DAC) technology to achieve negative CO 2 emissions and counter global warming. Here, in this study, MS CO 2 sorption in a model MS sorbent, IRA900, was investigated. IRA900 is a macroporous commercial strong-base anion exchange resin (AER) with quaternary ammonium functional groups. A rigorous CO 2 desorption process was developed to desorb all CO 2 from the sample and obtain CO 2 sorption isotherms as a function of relative humidity, CO 2 partial pressure, and temperature. CO 2 sorption increased with decreasing relative humidity, decreasing temperature, and increasing CO 2 partial pressure. Remarkably, the total CO 2 uptake from the sorption isotherms matched the ion exchange capacity (IEC) of the material, suggesting a stoichiometry of one CO 2 molecule reacting per active site. An isotherm model for CO 2 sorption starting with empty sorption sites (i.e., with the AER in the OH – form) described the experimental data well, supporting the hypothesis that the bicarbonate-loaded AER fully unloaded to the OH – state following rigorous CO 2 desorption. CO 2 sorption kinetics were studied, and carbon diffusion coefficients were estimated as a function of %RH and CO 2 partial pressure. Overall, this study provides a roadmap for the systematic evaluation of MS CO 2 DAC materials.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Generalized Relationship Linking Water Balance and Vegetation Productivity across Site-to-Regional Scales

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a pivotal component in catchment-scale water balance and is essential for informed watershed management. Nevertheless, uncertainties in ET observation or modeling have been hindering effective water resources management. This study addresses this gap by establishing a robust, generalized linear relationship between ET and gross primary productivity (GPP) at the catchment scale. We test the linearity of the relationships between monthly GPP and ET data at 380 near-natural catchments across various climatic and landscape conditions in the contiguous U.S., yielding Pearson’s r ≥ 0.6 for 97% of the 380 catchments. We then develop a regionalization strategy to parameterize this GPP-ET relationship at the catchment scale by identifying and utilizing the linkages between the parameter values and extensively available hydroclimatic and landscape data. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed GPP-ET relationship and parameter regionalization strategy by their combined predictive capacity, where the predicted monthly GPP matches well with remote-sensing-based GPP product, achieving Kling-Gupta Efficient (KGE) values ≥ 0.5 for 92% of the catchments. In addition, we verify the relationship and its parameter regionalization at 35 AmeriFlux sites with KGE ≥ 0.5 for 25 sites, suggesting that the new relationship is transferable across the site, catchment, and regional scales. Furthermore, our findings are valuable for improving remote-sensing-based estimation of monthly ET and diagnosing coupled water–carbon simulations in land surface and Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Wild Isolates of Neurospora crassa Reveal Three Conidiophore Architectural Phenotypes

The vegetative life cycle in the model filamentous fungus, Neurospora crassa, relies on the development of conidiophores to produce new spores. Environmental, temporal, and genetic components of conidiophore development have been well characterized; however, little is known about their morphological variation. We explored conidiophore architectural variation in a natural population using a wild population collection of 21 strains from Louisiana, United States of America (USA). Our work reveals three novel architectural phenotypes, Wild Type, Bulky, and Wrap, and shows their maintenance throughout the duration of conidiophore development. Furthermore, we present a novel image-classifier using a convolutional neural network specifically developed to assign conidiophore architectural phenotypes in a high-throughput manner. To estimate an inheritance model for this discrete complex trait, crosses between strains of each phenotype were conducted, and conidiophores of subsequent progeny were characterized using the trained classifier. Our model suggests that conidiophore architecture is controlled by at least two genes and has a heritability of 0.23. Additionally, we quantified the number of conidia produced by each conidiophore type and their dispersion distance, suggesting that conidiophore architectural phenotype may impact N. crassa colonization capacity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1981

Evaluation of HCMM satellite data for estuarine tidal circulation patterns and thermal inertia soil moisture measurements

Digital thermal maps of the Cooper River (SC) and the Potomac River estuaries were prepared from heat capacity mapping radiometer (HCMR) tapes. Tidal phases were correctly interpreted and verified. Synoptic surface circulation patterns were charted by location thermal fronts and water mass boundaries within the estuaries. Thermal anomalies were detected adjacent of a conventional power plant on the Potomac. Under optimum conditions, estuaries as small as the Cooper River can be monitored for generalized thermal/tidal circulation patterns by the HCMM-type IR sensors. The HCMM thermal inertia approach to estimating soil moisture at the Luverne (MN) test site was found to be unsatisfactory as a NESS operational satellite technique because of cloud cover interference. Thermal-IR data show similar structure of the Baltimore and Washington heat islands when compared to NOAA AVHRR thermal-IR data. Thermal anomalies from the warm water discharge water of a nuclear power plant were mapped in Lake Anna, Virginia.

Wiesnet, D. R.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Preliminary results and power analysis of the UAH SEDS G503 GAS can

The G-503 Get Away Special (GAS) Canister contained four experiments. A stainless steel corrosion experiment, and experiment to mix and cure concrete, a plant root growth chamber, and a group of 8 chambers to characterize diatom growth cycles in microgravity. As would be expected for this selection of experiments a significant amount of power was required to carry out these investigations over several days in a GAS environment. This was accomplished through the use of low power experiment control circuitry, heaters, and an estimate 3.6 kWh battery pack. The battery was designed around 120 standard Duracell Alkaline F cells. This pack weighed 29.5 kg (65 lbs) including a DC/DC converter and the power distribution bus for all of the experiments. Although not rechargeable, this configurations was a fraction of the cost of rechargeable systems and did not require venting to the outside of the can. Combining this with the long term storage performance, 85% of initial capacity after four years at 20 C (70 F), this guarantees sufficient power even with unexpected launch delays. This paper describes the experiments, there operation and initial results. Also, the performance of the power system during the STS-68 SRL2 mission will be addressed.

Jalbert, Lyle B.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Foods for a Mission to Mars: Investigations of Low-Dose Gamma Radiation Effects

Food must be safe, nutritious, and acceptable throughout a long duration mission to maintain the health, well-being, and productivity of the astronauts. In addition to a developing a stable pre-packaged food supply, research is required to better understand the ability to convert edible biomass into safe, nutritious, and acceptable food products in a closed system with many restrictions (mass, volume, power, crew time, etc.). An understanding of how storage conditions encountered in a long-term space mission, such as elevated radiation, will impact food quality is also needed. The focus of this project was to contribute to the development of the highest quality food system possible for the duration of a mission, considering shelf-stable extended shelf-life foods, bulk ingredients, and crops to be grown in space. The impacts of space-relevant radiation doses on food, bulk ingredient, and select candidate crop quality and antioxidant capacity were determined. Interestingly, increasing gamma-radiation doses (0 to 1000 Gy) did not always increase dose-related effects in foods. Intermediate radiation doses (10 to 800Gy) often had significantly larger impact on the stability of bulk ingredient oils than higher (1000Gy) radiation doses. Overall, most food, ingredient, and crop systems investigated showed no significant differences between control samples and those treated with 3 Gy of gamma radiation (the upper limit estimated for a mission to Mars). However, this does not mean that all foods will be stable for 3-5 years, nor does it mean that foods are stable to space radiation comprising more than gamma rays.

Gandolph, J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Runway Exit Designs for Capacity Improvement Demonstrations. Phase 1: Algorithm Development

A description and results are presented of a study to locate and design rapid runway exits under realistic airport conditions. The study developed a PC-based computer simulation-optimization program called REDIM (runway exit design interactive model) to help future airport designers and planners to locate optimal exits under various airport conditions. The model addresses three sets of problems typically arising during runway exit design evaluations. These are the evaluations of existing runway configurations, addition of new rapid runway turnoffs, and the design of new runway facilities. The model is highly interactive and allows a quick estimation of the expected value of runway occupancy time. Aircraft populations and airport environmental conditions are among the multiple inputs to the model to execute a viable runway location and geometric design solution. The results presented suggest that possible reductions on runway occupancy time (ROT) can be achieved with the use of optimally tailored rapid runway designs for a given aircraft population. Reductions of up to 9 to 6 seconds are possible with the implementation of 30 m/sec variable geometry exits.

Trani, A. A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Global Carbon Budget 1800-2018 Loss of Additional Sink Capacity and Present Transient Difference

A dataset of two global carbon fluxes: the loss of additional sink capacity (LASC) and present versus transient difference (PTD). The loss of additional sink capacity is the loss of indirect anthropogenic sink capacity in land ecosystems caused by the loss of ecosystems that can increase carbon in response to changing environments, primarily forests. The present transient difference refers to the direct anthropogenic flux in land ecosystems (from land cover and land use change) and the difference in that flux when calculated assuming "present day" (actually more like 1980) ecosystem carbon stocks or when calculated assuming transient carbon stocks (i.e. caused by environmental change). In this dataset, the LASC and PTD fluxes were calculated using the TRENDY ensemble of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs; Sitch et al., 2024) following the methods described therein and in Obermeier et al. (2021). For further details see Obermeier et al. (2021), Friedlingstein et al. (2019), Sitch et al. (2024), and Walker et al. (2025). The dataset includes ensemble means and standard deviations for annual fluxes, fluxes cumulated annually over the whole time period, and cumulated since 1959. These data were originally collected to compare different approaches (DGVMs versus bookkeeping models) for estimating land use and land cover change (LULCC) emissions (Obermeier et al. 2021). More recently, and similarly, these data were used to harmonize the estimates of the direct and indirect anthropogenic fluxes in the global carbon cycle and to recalculate the global carbon budget (Walker et al., 2025).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Technological evolution of large-scale blue hydrogen production toward the U.S. Hydrogen Energy Earthshot

Hydrogen potentially has a crucial role in the U.S. transition to a net-zero emissions economy. Learning from large-scale hydrogen projects will boost technological evolution and innovation toward the U.S. Hydrogen Energy Earthshot. We apply experience curves to estimate the evolving costs of blue hydrogen production and to further examine the economic effect on technological evolution of the Inflation Reduction Act’s tax credits for carbon sequestration and clean hydrogen. Learning-by-doing alone can decrease the production cost of blue hydrogen. Without tax incentives, however, it is hard for blue hydrogen production to reach the cost target of $\$1$/kg H 2 . Here we show that the breakeven cumulative production capacity required for gas-based blue hydrogen to reach the $\$1$/kg H 2 target highly depends on tax credit, natural gas price, inflation rate, and learning rates. We make recommendations for hydrogen hub development and for accelerating technological progress toward the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Expedited desalination permitting enables adaptive planning and water system cost reduction

Seawater desalination is a drought-proof water supply for coastal cities, but widespread development of desalination plants in the U.S. has been limited by both cost and the complexity of permitting processes designed to minimize environmental impact . This work estimates the value of accelerating the permitting timeline without changing environmental or social standards. On average, faster permitting reduces the frequency of desalination plant construction and operation, the overall costs of robust water system operation, the environmental impacts of drought-tolerant water supplies due to shorter duration of plant operation. Expedited permitting allows fundamental changes in how water infrastructure is deployed, facilitating a transition from anticipatory construction and continuous operation of seawater desalination capacity as a redundant drought buffer to just-in-time (i.e. adaptive) deployment of seawater desalination capacity when critical drought thresholds are crossed. We demonstrate the value of expedited desalination permitting in enabling adaptive planning and reducing water system costs using a simple case study in Santa Barbara, CA. We discuss additional forms of adaptive water infrastructure planning as enabled by faster permitting and address their challenges and opportunities. Lastly, we identify synergies between innovation in adaptive planning, innovation in expedited permitting practices, and innovation in water technology.

adaptive planning↗