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Accelerating Scientific Knowledge Discovery (ASKD) Working Group Report

Sustained scientific progress over the next decade and beyond will require new advanced discovery ecosystems quite different from the computational and collaborative environments in which most research is performed today. These systems will need to connect increasing numbers of scientists, enable use of data and computational services at unprecedented scales, foster scientific discoveries based on ever more complex cross-disciplinary hypotheses, facilitate the immediate sharing and exchange of existing and emerging knowledge, and provide mechanisms for timely control of and feedback to instruments and simulations. To achieve this goal requires computer science research advances in multiple areas.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

The need for non- or minimally-invasive biomonitoring strategies and the development of pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic models for quantification

Advancements in Exposure Science involving the development and deployment of biomarkers of exposure and biological response are anticipated to significantly (and positively) influence health outcomes associated with occupational, environmental and clinical exposure to chemicals/drugs. To achieve this vision, innovative strategies are needed to develop multiplex sensor platforms capable of quantifying individual and mixed exposures (i.e. systemic dose) by measuring biomarkers of dose and biological response in readily obtainable (non-invasive) biofluids. Secondly, the use of saliva (alternative to blood) for biomonitoring coupled with the ability to rapidly analyze multiple samples in real-time offers an innovative opportunity to revolutionize biomonitoring assessments. In this regard, the timing and number of samples taken for biomonitoring will not be limited as is currently the case. In addition, real-time analysis will facilitate identification of work practices or conditions that are contributing to increased exposures and will make possible a more rapid and successful intervention strategy. The initial development and application of computational models for evaluation of saliva/blood analyte concentration at anticipated exposure levels represents an important opportunity to establish the limits of quantification and robustness of multiplex sensor systems by exploiting a unique computational modeling framework. The use of these pharmacokinetic models will also enable prediction of an exposure dose based on the saliva/blood measurement. This novel strategy will result in a more accurate prediction of exposures and, once validated, can be employed to assess dosimetry to a broad range of chemicals in support of biomonitoring and epidemiology studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

An Atmospheric Aerosol Short Course for Early Career Scientists

The first Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental and Molecular Science Laboratory (EMSL)/Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) aerosol summer school was held July 15-19, 2019 at the EMSL user facility located at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The school set out to provide graduate students and early-career scientists an overview of atmospheric aerosol science and an introduction to the measurement techniques available through the EMSL and ARM user facilities to address current aerosol science issues. Instructors for the course were drawn from scientists from the EMSL (Laskin et al., 2016; China et al., 2018) and ARM facilities (McComiskey and Ferrare, 2016) as well as from the DOE Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program. Student support for the summer school was also jointly provided by EMSL, ARM, and ASR. The school spanned five days with each day covering a particular theme. 25 students from 21 institutions attended morning lectures on aerosol composition, properties, theory, measurements, and modeling. During afternoons, the students explored instruments that collect and analyze aerosol samples at EMSL and PNNL’s Atmospheric Measurements Laboratory. They also tested relevant computer modeling simulations and learned about NWChem, EMSL’s open-source computational chemistry software suite.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Many-Body Potential for Simulating Self-Assembly of Polymer-Grafted Nanoparticles in a Polymer Matrix

Many-body interactions between polymer-grafted nanoparticles (NPs) play a key role in promoting their assembly into low-dimensional structures within polymer melts, even when the particles are spherical and isotropically grafted. However, capturing such interactions in simulations of NP assembly is very challenging because explicit modeling of the polymer grafts and melt chains is highly computationally expensive, even using coarse-grained models. Here, we develop a many-body potential for describing the effective interactions between spherical polymer-grafted NPs in a polymer matrix through a machine-learning approach. The approach involves using permutationally invariant polynomials to fit two- and three-body interactions derived from the potential of mean force calculations. The potential developed here reduces the computational cost by several orders of magnitude, thereby, allowing us to explore assembly behavior over large length and time scales. We show that the potential not only reproduces previously known assembled phases such as 1D strings and 2D hexagonal sheets, which generally cannot be achieved using isotropic two-body potentials, but can also help discover interesting phases such as networks, clusters, and gels. We demonstrate how each of these assembly morphologies intrinsically arises from a competition between two- and three-body interactions. Our approach for deriving many-body effective potentials can be readily extended to other colloidal systems, enabling researchers to make accurate predictions of their behavior and dissect the role of individual interaction energy terms of the overall potential in the observed behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Matilda v1.0: An R package for probabilistic climate projections using a reduced complexity climate model

A primary advantage to using reduced complexity climate models (RCMs) has been their ability to quickly conduct probabilistic climate projections, a key component of uncertainty quantification in many impact studies and multisector systems. Providing frameworks for such analyses has been a target of several RCMs used in studies of the future co-evolution of the human and Earth systems. In this paper, we present Matilda, an open-science R software package that facilitates probabilistic climate projection analysis, implemented here using the Hector simple climate model in a seamless and easily applied framework. The primary goal of Matilda is to provide the user with a turn-key method to build parameter sets from literature-based prior distributions, run Hector iteratively to produce perturbed parameter ensembles (PPEs), weight ensembles for realism against observed historical climate data, and compute probabilistic projections for different climate variables. This workflow gives the user the ability to explore viable parameter space and propagate uncertainty to model ensembles with just a few lines of code. The package provides significant freedom to select different scoring criteria and algorithms to weight ensemble members, as well as the flexibility to implement custom criteria. Additionally, the architecture of the package simplifies the process of building and analyzing PPEs without requiring significant programming expertise, to accommodate diverse use cases. We present a case study that provides illustrative results of a probabilistic analysis of mean global surface temperature as an example of the software application.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A generalized superstructure-based framework for process synthesis

We propose a general framework for the formulation of superstructure-based optimization models for holistic process synthesis. First, we redefine the fundamental problems of reactor, separation, and heat exchanger network synthesis, by presenting generalized problem statements, to make them amenable to seamless integration with each other. Second, we describe the general forms of models that can be developed to address these generalized problems and identify some key characteristics. Notably, for each system, we identify internal variables used only within the system, cost variables used in the objective function, and, importantly, coupling variables for the coupling between systems. Third, we outline some literature models that can be used to address the generalized problems and present new models to couple the three systems. Finally, we show how the individual components (systems and coupling models) can be integrated to formulate a single simultaneous reactor, separation, and heat exchanger network synthesis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Surface fluctuating hydrodynamics methods for the drift-diffusion dynamics of particles and microstructures within curved fluid interfaces

Here we introduce fluctuating hydrodynamics approaches on surfaces for capturing the drift-diffusion dynamics of particles and microstructures immersed within curved fluid interfaces of spherical shape. We take into account the interfacial hydrodynamic coupling, traction coupling with the surrounding bulk fluid, and thermal fluctuations. For fluid-structure interactions, we introduce Immersed Boundary Methods (IBM) and related Stochastic Eulerian-Lagrangian Methods (SELM) for curved surfaces. We use these approaches to investigate the statistics of surface fluctuating hydrodynamics and microstructures. For velocity autocorrelations, we find characteristic power-law scalings $τ^{-1}, τ^{-2}$, and plateaus can emerge. This depends on the physical regime associated with the geometry, surface viscosity, and bulk viscosity. This differs from the characteristic $τ^{-3/2}$ scaling for bulk three dimensional fluids. We develop theory explaining these observed power-laws associated with time-scales for dissipation within the fluid interface and coupling to the surrounding fluid. We then use our introduced methods to investigate a few example systems and roles of hydrodynamic coupling and thermal fluctuations including for the kinetics of passive particles and active microswimmers in curved fluid interfaces.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Reducing Cascading Failure Risk by Increasing Infrastructure Network Interdependence

Increased coupling between critical infrastructure networks, such as power and communication systems, has important implications for the reliability and security of these systems. To understand the effects of power-communication coupling, several researchers have studied models of interdependent networks and reported that increased coupling can increase vulnerability. However, these conclusions come largely from models that have substantially different mechanisms of cascading failure, relative to those found in actual power and communication networks, and that do not capture the benefits of connecting systems with complementary capabilities. In order to understand the importance of these details, this paper compares network vulnerability in simple topological models and in models that more accurately capture the dynamics of cascading in power systems. First, we compare a simple model of topological contagion to a model of cascading in power systems and find that the power grid model shows a higher level of vulnerability, relative to the contagion model. Second, we compare a percolation model of topological cascading in coupled networks to three different models of power networks coupled to communication systems. Again, the more accurate models suggest very different conclusions than the percolation model. In all but the most extreme case, the physics-based power grid models indicate that increased power-communication coupling decreases vulnerability. This is opposite from what one would conclude from the percolation model, in which zero coupling is optimal. Only in an extreme case, in which communication failures immediately cause grid failures, did we find that increased coupling can be harmful. Together, these results suggest design strategies for reducing the risk of cascades in interdependent infrastructure systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Quadratic pseudospectrum for identifying localized states

Here we examine the utility of the quadratic pseudospectrum for understanding and detecting states that are somewhat localized in position and energy, in particular, in the context of condensed matter physics. Specifically, the quadratic pseudospectrum represents a method for approaching systems with incompatible observables {A j |1 ≤ j ≤ d} as it minimizes collectively the errors $\parallel$A j v - λ j v$\parallel$ while defining a joint approximate spectrum of incompatible observables. Moreover, we derive an important estimate relating the Clifford and quadratic pseudospectra. Finally, we prove that the quadratic pseudospectrum is local and derive the bounds on the errors that are incurred by truncating the system in the vicinity of where the pseudospectrum is being calculated.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Characterization of Extremes and Compound Impacts: Applications of Machine Learning and Interpretable Neural Networks

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal area III by exploring data fusion, learning and explainable AI methods in characterizing hydrological extremes and interconnections. It also addresses Focal area II by using probabilistic AI and ensemble ML for predicting extremes and compound extremes. Science Challenge: A key question associated with the integrated water (or hydrological) cycle grand challenge in the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD) strategic plan, is how the frequency and intensity of hydrological events will change. Prediction of the tail behavior (extremes) of the hydrological cycle is especially challenging, because of their stochasticity and low probability. These extreme events and their compound impacts have significant societal and economic consequences. It is anticipated for the next-generation Earth System models (ESMs), that model predictability of the water cycle will improve with increased resolution (e.g., regionally refined E3SM), advanced software and computational architectures, and improved model physics based on the data from ARM measurements and high-fidelity models. However, the challenges for predictability of low-probability high-impact extreme events will unlikely be alleviated with conventional modeling and data-driven approaches, as ESMs are calibrated largely for capturing the high-frequency mean climate states. Recent AI and ML applications have shown great potential in quantifying well-defined climate extremes (e.g., supervised learning of tropical cyclones/atmospheric rivers by ClimateNet1) but few efforts are dedicated to compound events, extreme drivers and uncertainty estimation. We envision the opportunity to develop and apply ML and interpretable AI methods extended on the existing efforts, specifically, for: (1) identification of compound extremes, (2) diagnosing drivers of extremes, (3) bias correction in extreme predictions and (4) probabilistic modeling of extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Developing a Hybrid Electric Vehicle Eco-Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control System at Signalized Intersections.

This study develops an eco-driving strategy for hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) in the vicinity of signalized intersections, entitled HEV Eco-Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control at Intersections (Eco-CACC-I). The proposed system computes real-time, energy-optimized vehicle trajectories using HEV vehicle dynamics and energy consumption models. In the proposed system, a simple HEV energy model is used to compute the instantaneous fuel consumption. This HEV energy model is selected since it is general, transferable, and can be easily used to compute instantaneous energy consumption levels for HEVs without the additional input of vehicle engine data or complicated power control strategies. In addition, a vehicle dynamics model is used to capture the relationship between speed, acceleration level, and tractive/resistance forces on vehicles. The energy-optimum problem is formulated as an optimization problem with constraints, which is solved using a moving-horizon dynamic programming approach. The proposed HEV Eco-CACC-I system was tested to evaluate its performance for various speed limits, roadway grades, and signal timings. Lastly, the proposed HEV controller was implemented in a microscopic traffic simulation software to test its network-wide performance. The test results from an arterial corridor with three signalized intersections demonstrate that the proposed system can effectively reduce stop-and-go traffic in the vicinity of signalized intersections producing savings of 7.4% in energy consumption, 5.8% in traffic delay and 23% vehicle stops, respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

PRIMA-X - Performance Retargeting of Instrumentation, Measurement, and Analysis Technologies for Exascale Computing

The PRIMA-X (Performance Retargeting of Instrumentation, Measurement, and Analysis Technologies for Exascale Computing) project is the successor of the DOE PRIMA (Performance Refactoring of Instrumentation, Measurement, and Analysis Technologies for Petascale Computing) project, which addressed the challenge of creating a core measurement infrastructure that would serve as a common platform for both integrating leading parallel performance systems (notably TAU and Scalasca) and developing next-generation scalable performance tools. The PRIMA-X project shifts the focus away from refactorization of robust performance tools towards a re-targeting of the parallel performance measurement and analysis architecture for extreme scales. The massive concurrency, asynchronous execution dynamics, hardware heterogeneity, and multi-objective prerequisites (performance, power, resilience) that identify exascale systems introduce fundamental constraints on the ability to carry forward existing performance methodologies. In particular, there must be a deemphasis of per-thread observation techniques to significantly reduce the otherwise unsustainable flood of redundant performance data. Instead, it will be necessary to assimilate multi-level resource observations into macroscopic performance views, from which resilient performance metrics can be attributed to the computational features of the application. This requires a scalable framework for node-level and system-wide monitoring and runtime analyses of dynamic performance information. Also, the interest in optimizing parallelism parameters with respect to performance and energy drives the integration of tool capabilities in the exascale environment further. Initially, PRIMA-X was a collaborative project between the University of Oregon (lead institution) and the German Research School for Simulation Sciences (GRS). Because Prof. Wolf, the PI at GRS, accepted a position as full professor at Technische Universitaet Darmstadt (TU Darmstadt) starting February 1st, 2015, the work of GRS was continued at TU Darmstadt. This report covers the work at TU Darmstadt after the transition. The first main accomplishment of TU Darmstadt is the development of different techniques to aggregate performance data on the level of threads. TU Darmstadt evaluated different schemes designed at GRS during the first phase of this project and integrated them into Score-P, a widely used performance measurement framework for HPC applications. The second main accomplishment is a substantial increase of Score-P’s scalability, achieved by improving its internal representation of the underlying system. Third, we extended our performance-modeling tool Extra-P to automatically create models with more than one input parameter (e.g., process count and input size), which was previously impossible. These models allow the performance behavior of an application to be extrapolated to larger machines. Specific applications of the new multi-parameter capability realized in this project include modeling the isoefficiency function of task-based applications and a novel co-design methodology. Further extensions of Extra-P comprise online modeling functionality, automatic refinement of the model search space, and segmented performance modeling. Further contributions include new locality metrics for both shared- and distributed-memory applications, a new way of measuring the impact of inter-application inference on the execution time of an application, and finally an automatic method that selects appropriate OpenMP constructs for the parallelization of sequential code and classifies the affected variables based on their sharing semantics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantum guidelines for solid-state spin defects

Defects with associated electron and nuclear spins in solid-state materials have a long history relevant to quantum information science going back to the first spin echo experiments with silicon dopants in the 1950s. Since the turn of the century, the field has rapidly spread to a vast array of defects and host crystals applicable to quantum communication, sensing, and computing. From simple spin resonance to long-distance remote entanglement, the complexity of working with spin defects is fast advancing, and requires an in-depth understanding of their spin, optical, charge, and material properties in this modern context. This is especially critical for discovering new relevant systems dedicated to specific quantum applications. In this review, we therefore expand upon all the key components with an emphasis on the properties of defects and the host material,on engineering opportunities and other pathways for improvement. Finally, this review aims to be as defect and material agnostic as possible, with some emphasis on optical emitters,providing a broad guideline for the field of solid-state spin defects for quantum information.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

SPECTRON, a neutron noise measurement system in frequency domain

This paper is dedicated to the presentation and validation of SPECTRON, a novel neutron noise measurement system developed at CEA Cadarache. The device is designed for the measurement of the β{sub eff} parameter (effective fraction of delayed neutrons) of experimental nuclear reactors using the Cohn-α method. An integrated electronic system is used to record the current from fission chambers. Spectra computed from measurement data are processed by a dedicated software in order to estimate the reactor transfer function and then the effective fraction of delayed neutrons as well as the prompt neutron generation time. After a review of the pile noise measurement method in current mode, the SPECTRON architecture is presented. Then, the validation procedure is described and experimental results are shown, supporting the proper functioning of this new measurement system. It is shown that every technical requirement needed for correct measurement of neutron noise is fulfilled. Measurements performed at MINERVE and EOLE, two experimental nuclear reactors at CEA Cadarache, in real conditions allowed us to validate SPECTRON.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Completion of initial reduced-order model for flammable refrigerant dispersal in residential spaces

Environmental regulations aimed at reducing global warming impacts of HVAC&R refrigerants have resulted in the phase-out of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in 2010 and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) by 2030 in developed countries with additional restrictions on the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) set to take effect in 2036. Many of the remaining alternative refrigerants that have lower global warming potential (GWP) and that are suitable for use in HVAC&R systems (e.g., propane, difluoromethane) are flammable to some degree. Flammable refrigerants introduce new challenges and hazards to property and personal safety related to potential deflagration during system maintenance or due to leakage of the refrigerant accumulating in the conditioned space. Standards have been developed to set maximum charge limits for flammable refrigerants in HVAC&R systems; however, existing safety standards and codes still restrict their use. The bodies that maintain and update these codes need publicly available, science-based information to enable credible guidelines for setting safe charge limits for different flammable refrigerants in different HVAC&R applications. In 2016, the Alliance for Responsible Atmospheric Policy, the Air-Conditioning Heating and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI), ASHRAE, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the State of California began efforts to develop such information. As part of this effort, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) began the current, ongoing project to examine imposed charge limits for flammable refrigerants and identify reasonable adjustments to these limits when found appropriate. Past tasks under this project have included development of experimentally vetted, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation approaches to study the results of leakage of flammable refrigerants from various HVAC&R systems into different types of commercial and residential spaces. In this report, we discuss recent efforts to develop a predictive model of the flammable volume fraction and accumulated refrigerant mass in a single-room residential space resulting from the leak of a flammable refrigerant from a small room air conditioning (RAC) unit. The eventual goal is development of a model suitable for public release which could simulate a range of scenarios. In discussions with the AHRTI Flammable Refrigerant Subcommittee (FRS) at the beginning of this effort, a total of 9 input parameters were chosen for consideration including room area, room/door opening area, ventilation fan flow rate, unit/leak height, leak area, leak rate, total refrigerant charge, refrigerant molecular weight, and state of the unit fan.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Continuum Microkinetic Rate Theory of Lattice Systems: Formalization, Current Limitations, and a Possible Basis for Continuum Rate Theory

A broad class of reaction networks are controlled not by any thermodynamic ensemble but by rates and are referred to as “kinetically constrained”. Here in this paper, microkinetic rate theory is extended into a model of arbitrarily complex reaction networks. This microkinetic rate theory takes a form where the constraints imposed by kinetically constrained systems apply naturally. This model is compared to numerically complete results and is shown to be quantitatively predictive. Model deviations are shown to emerge for systems with incomplete mixing. Finally, this model is analytical and may serve as a basis for device and continuum scale rate modeling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Development of a time-variable nuclear pulser for half life measurements

In this work a time-variable pulser system with an exponentially-decaying pulse frequency is presented, which was developed using the low-cost, open-source Arduino microcontroler plataform. In this system, the microcontroller produces a TTL signal in the selected rate and a pulse shaper board adjusts it to be entered in an amplifier as a conventional pulser signal; both the decay constant and the initial pulse rate can be adjusted using a user-friendly control software, and the pulse amplitude can be adjusted using a potentiometer in the pulse shaper board. The pulser was tested using several combinations of initial pulse rate and decay constant, and the results show that the system is stable and reliable, and is suitable to be used in half-life measurements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Enhancement of molecular sensitivity in positron emission tomography with quantum correlation of γ-ray photons

Enhancement of molecular sensitivity in positron emission tomography (PET) has long been discussed with respect to imaging instrumentation and algorithms for data treatment. Here, the molecular sensitivity in PET is discussed on the basis of 2-dimensional coincident measurements of 511 keV γ ray photons resultant from two-photon annihilation. Introduction of an additional selection window based on the energy sum and difference of the coincidently measured γ ray photons, without any significant instrumental and algorithmic changes, showed an improvement in the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) by an order of magnitude. Improvement of performance characteristics in the PET imaging system was demonstrated by an increase in the noise equivalent count rate (NECR) which takes both the SNR and the detection efficiency into consideration. A further improvement of both the SNR and the NECR is expected for the present system in real clinical and in-vivo environments, where much stronger positron sources are employed.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗