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Irrigation Induced Surface Cooling in the Context of Modern and Increased Greenhouse Gas Forcing

There is evidence that expected warming trends from increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing have been locally masked by irrigation induced cooling, and it is uncertain how the magnitude of this irrigation masking effect will change in the future. Using an irrigation dataset integrated into a global general circulation model, we investigate the equilibrium magnitude of irrigation induced cooling under modern (Year 2000) and increased (A1B Scenario, Year 2050) GHG forcing, using modern irrigation rates in both scenarios. For the modern scenario, the cooling is largest over North America, India, the Middle East, and East Asia. Under increased GHG forcing, this cooling effect largely disappears over North America, remains relatively unchanged over India, and intensifies over parts of China and the Middle East. For North America, irrigation significantly increases precipitation under modern GHG forcing; this precipitation enhancement largely disappears under A1B forcing, reducing total latent heat fluxes and the overall irrigation cooling effect. Over India, irrigation rates are high enough to keep pace with increased evaporative demand from the increased GHG forcing and the magnitude of the cooling is maintained. Over China, GHG forcing reduces precipitation and shifts the region to a drier evaporative regime, leading to a relatively increased impact of additional water from irrigation on the surface energy balance. Irrigation enhances precipitation in the Middle East under increased GHG forcing, increasing total latent heat fluxes and enhancing the irrigation cooling effect. Ultimately, the extent to which irrigation will continue to compensate for the warming from increased GHG forcing will primarily depend on changes in the background evaporative regime, secondary irrigation effects (e.g. clouds, precipitation), and the ability of societies to maintain (or increase) current irrigation rates.

Cook, Benjamin I.↗

Irreversible Entropy Production in Two-Phase Mixing Layers

This report presents a study of dissipation (irreversible production of entropy) in three-dimensional, temporal mixing layers laden with evaporating liquid drops. The purpose of the study is to examine the effects of evaporating drops on the development of turbulent features in flows. Direct numerical simulations were performed to analyze transitional states of three mixing layers: one without drops, and two that included drops at different initial mass loadings. Without drops, the dissipation is essentially due to viscous effects. It was found that in the presence of drops, the largest contribution to dissipation was made by heating and evaporation of the drops, and that at large length scales, this contribution is positive (signifying that the drops reduce turbulence), while at small scales, this contribution is negative (the drops increase turbulence). The second largest contribution to dissipation was found to be associated with the chemical potential, which leads to an increase in turbulence at large scales and a decrease in turbulence at small scales. The next smaller contribution was found to be that of viscosity. The fact that viscosity effects are only third in order of magnitude in the dissipation is in sharp contrast to the situation for the mixing layer without the drops. The next smaller contribution - that of the drag and momentum of the vapor from the drops - was found to be negative at lower mass loading but to become positive at higher mass loading.

Okongo, Nora↗

Environmentally Safer, Less Toxic Fire-Extinguishing Agents

Fire-extinguishing agents comprising microscopic drops of water microencapsulated in flame-retardant polymers have been proposed as effective, less toxic, non-ozone-depleting, non-globalwarming alternatives to prior fire-extinguishing agents. Among the prior fire-extinguishing agents are halons (various halocarbon fluids), which are toxic and contribute both to depletion of upperatmospheric ozone and to global warming. Other prior fire-extinguishing agents are less toxic and less environmentally harmful but, in comparison with halons, are significantly less effective in extinguishing fires. The proposal to formulate new waterbased agents is based on recent success in the use of water mist as a fire-suppression agent. Water suppresses a flame by reducing the flame temperature and the concentration of oxygen available for the combustion process. The temperature is reduced because the water droplets in the mist absorb latent heat of vaporization as they evaporate. The concentration of oxygen is reduced because the newly generated water vapor displaces air. Unfortunately, water mists are difficult to produce in confined spaces and can evaporate before they reach the bases of flames. The proposal addresses both of these issues: The proposed fire-extinguishing agents would be manufactured in microencapsulated form in advance, eliminating the problem of generating mists in confined spaces. Because of the microencapsulation, the droplets would not evaporate until exposed directly to the heat of flames. In addition, the proposal calls for the introduction of free radicals that would inhibit the propagation of the chemical reactions of the combustion reactions. Manufacturing of a fire-extinguishing agent according to the proposal would begin with the formulation of a suitable polymer (e.g., a polybromostyrene) that would contribute free radicals to the combustion process. The polymer would be dissolved in a suitable hydrocarbon liquid (e.g., toluene). Water would be dispersed in the polymer/toluene solution, then another hydrocarbon liquid (e.g., hexane) that is not a solvent for the polymer would be added to the mixture to make the dissolved polymer precipitate onto the water droplets. The resulting polymer-coated droplets would be removed from the coating mixture by filtration, dried, and stored for use.

Parrish, Clyde F.↗

Magnesium and Silicon Isotopes in HASP Glasses from Apollo 16 Lunar Soil 61241

The high-Al (>28 wt %), silica-poor (<45 wt %) (HASP) feldspathic glasses of Apollo 16 are widely regarded as the evaporative residues of impacts in the lunar regolith [1-3]. By virtue of their small size, apparent homogeneity, and high inferred formation temperatures, the HASP glasses appear to be good samples in which to study fractionation processes that may accompany open system evaporation. Calculations suggest that HASP glasses with present-day Al2O3 concentrations of up to 40 wt% may have lost 19 wt% of their original masses, calculated as the oxides of iron and silicon, via evaporation [4]. We report Mg and Si isotope abundances in 10 HASP glasses and 2 impact-glass spherules from a 64-105 m grain-size fraction taken from Apollo 16 soil sample 61241.

Herzog, G. F.↗

Thermosyphon Flooding Limits in Reduced Gravity Environments

Fission Power Systems have long been recognized as potential multi-kilowatt power solutions for lunar, Martian, and extended planetary surface missions. Current heat rejection technology associated with fission surface power systems has focused on titanium water thermosyphons embedded in carbon composite radiator panels. The thermosyphons, or wickless heat pipes, are used as a redundant and efficient way to spread the waste heat from the power conversion unit(s) over the radiator surface area where it can be rejected to space. It is well known that thermosyphon performance is reliant on gravitational forces to keep the evaporator wetted with the working fluid. One of the performance limits that can be encountered, if not understood, is the phenomenon of condenser flooding, otherwise known as evaporator dry out. This occurs when the gravity forces acting on the condensed fluid cannot overcome the shear forces created by the vapor escaping the evaporator throat. When this occurs, the heat transfer process is stalled and may not re-stabilize to effective levels without corrective control actions. The flooding limit in earth's gravity environment is well understood as experimentation is readily accessible, but when the environment and gravity change relative to other planetary bodies, experimentation becomes difficult. An innovative experiment was designed and flown on a parabolic flight campaign to achieve the Reduced Gravity Environments (RGE) needed to obtain empirical data for analysis. The test data is compared to current correlation models for validation and accuracy.

Gibson, Marc A.↗

Testing of a Neon Loop Heat Pipe for Large Area Cryocooling

Cryocooling of large areas such as optics, detector arrays, and cryogenic propellant tanks is required for future NASA missions. A cryogenic loop heat pipe (CLHP) can provide a closed-loop cooling system for this purpose and has many advantages over other devices in terms of reduced mass, reduced vibration, high reliability, and long life. A neon CLHP was tested extensively in a thermal vacuum chamber using a cryopump as the heat sink to characterize its transient and steady performance and verify its ability to cool large areas or components. Tests conducted included loop cool-down from the ambient temperature, startup, power cycle, heat removal capability, loop capillary limit and recovery from a dry-out, low power operation, and long duration steady state operation. The neon CLHP demonstrated robust operation. The loop could be cooled from the ambient temperature to subcritical temperatures very effectively, and could start successfully by applying power to both the pump and evaporator without any pre-conditioning. It could adapt to changes in the pump power andor evaporator power, and reach a new steady state very quickly. The evaporator could remove heat loads between 0.25W and 4W. When the pump capillary limit was exceeded, the loop could resume its normal function by reducing the pump power. Steady state operations were demonstrated for up to 6 hours. The ability of the neon loop to cool large areas was therefore successfully verified.

Cryogenics↗

Loop Heat Pipe Startup Behaviors

A loop heat pipe must start successfully before it can commence its service. The start-up transient represents one of the most complex phenomena in the loop heat pipe operation. This paper discusses various aspects of loop heat pipe start-up behaviors. Topics include the four start-up scenarios, the initial fluid distribution between the evaporator and reservoir that determines the start-up scenario, factors that affect the fluid distribution between the evaporator and reservoir, difficulties encountered during the low power start-up, and methods to enhance the start-up success. Also addressed are the thermodynamic constraint between the evaporator and reservoir in the loop heat pipe operation, the superheat requirement for nucleate boiling, pressure spike and pressure surge during the start-up transient, and repeated cycles of loop start-up andshutdown under certain conditions.

Loop Heat Pipes↗

Consistency of Estimated Global Water Cycle Variations Over the Satellite Era

Motivated by the question of whether recent indications of decadal climate variability and a possible "climate shift" may have affected the global water balance, we examine evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability integrated over the global oceans and global land from three points of view-remotely sensed retrievals / objective analyses over the oceans, reanalysis vertically-integrated moisture convergence (MFC) over land, and land surface models forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology. Because monthly variations in area-averaged atmospheric moisture storage are small and the global integral of moisture convergence must approach zero, area-integrated E-P over ocean should essentially equal precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) over land (after adjusting for ocean and land areas). Our analysis reveals considerable uncertainty in the decadal variations of ocean evaporation when integrated to global scales. This is due to differences among datasets in 10m wind speed and near-surface atmospheric specific humidity (2m qa) used in bulk aerodynamic retrievals. Precipitation variations, all relying substantially on passive microwave retrievals over ocean, still have uncertainties in decadal variability, but not to the degree present with ocean evaporation estimates. Reanalysis MFC and P-ET over land from several observationally forced diagnostic and land surface models agree best on interannual variations. However, upward MFC (i.e. P-ET) reanalysis trends are likely related in part to observing system changes affecting atmospheric assimilation models. While some evidence for a low-frequency E-P maximum near 2000 is found, consistent with a recent apparent pause in sea-surface temperature (SST) rise, uncertainties in the datasets used here remain significant. Prospects for further reducing uncertainties are discussed. The results are interpreted in the context of recent climate variability (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Overturning), and efforts to distinguish these modes from longer-term trends.

Robertson, F. R.↗

Consistency of Estimated Global Water Cycle Variations Over the Satellite Era

Motivated by the question of whether recent indications of decadal climate variability and a possible "climate shift" may have affected the global water balance, we examine evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability integrated over the global oceans and global land from three points of view-remotely sensed retrievals / objective analyses over the oceans, reanalysis vertically-integrated moisture convergence (MFC) over land, and land surface models forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology. Because monthly variations in area-averaged atmospheric moisture storage are small and the global integral of moisture convergence must approach zero, area-integrated E-P over ocean should essentially equal precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) over land (after adjusting for ocean and land areas). Our analysis reveals considerable uncertainty in the decadal variations of ocean evaporation when integrated to global scales. This is due to differences among datasets in 10m wind speed and near-surface atmospheric specific humidity (2m qa) used in bulk aerodynamic retrievals. Precipitation variations, all relying substantially on passive microwave retrievals over ocean, still have uncertainties in decadal variability, but not to the degree present with ocean evaporation estimates. Reanalysis MFC and P-ET over land from several observationally forced diagnostic and land surface models agree best on interannual variations. However, upward MFC (i.e. P-ET) reanalysis trends are likely related in part to observing system changes affecting atmospheric assimilation models. While some evidence for a low-frequency E-P maximum near 2000 is found, consistent with a recent apparent pause in sea-surface temperature (SST) rise, uncertainties in the datasets used here remain significant. Prospects for further reducing uncertainties are discussed. The results are interpreted in the context of recent climate variability (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Overturning), and efforts to distinguish these modes from longer-term trends.

Robertson, F. R.↗

Pressure Profiles in a Loop Heat Pipe Under Gravity Influence

During the operation of a loop heat pipe (LHP), the viscous flow induces pressure drops in various elements of the loop. The total pressure drop is equal to the sum of pressure drops in vapor grooves, vapor line, condenser, liquid line and primary wick, and is sustained by menisci at liquid and vapor interfaces on the outer surface of the primary wick in the evaporator. The menisci will curve naturally so that the resulting capillary pressure matches the total pressure drop. In ground testing, an additional gravitational pressure head may be present and must be included in the total pressure drop when LHP components are placed in a non-planar configuration. Under gravity-neutral and anti-gravity conditions, the fluid circulation in the LHP is driven solely by the capillary force. With gravity assist, however, the flow circulation can be driven by the combination of capillary and gravitational forces, or by the gravitational force alone. For a gravity-assist LHP at a given elevation between the horizontal condenser and evaporator, there exists a threshold heat load below which the LHP operation is gravity driven and above which the LHP operation is capillary force and gravity co-driven. The gravitational pressure head can have profound effects on the LHP operation, and such effects depend on the elevation, evaporator heat load, and condenser sink temperature. This paper presents a theoretical study on LHP operations under gravity neutral, anti-gravity, and gravity-assist modes using pressure diagrams to help understand the underlying physical processes. Effects of the condenser configuration on the gravitational pressure head and LHP operation are also discussed.

0000↗

Pressure Profiles in a Loop Heat Pipe under Gravity Influence

During the operation of a loop heat pipe (LHP), the viscous flow induces pressure drops in various elements of the loop. The total pressure drop is equal to the sum of pressure drops in vapor grooves, vapor line, condenser, liquid line and primary wick, and is sustained by menisci at liquid and vapor interfaces on the outer surface of the primary wick in the evaporator. The menisci will curve naturally so that the resulting capillary pressure matches the total pressure drop. In ground testing, an additional gravitational pressure head may be present and must be included in the total pressure drop when LHP components are placed in a non-planar configuration. Under gravity-neutral and anti-gravity conditions, the fluid circulation in the LHP is driven solely by the capillary force. With gravity assist, however, the flow circulation can be driven by the combination of capillary and gravitational forces, or by the gravitational force alone. For a gravity-assist LHP at a given elevation between the horizontal condenser and evaporator, there exists a threshold heat load below which the LHP operation is gravity driven and above which the LHP operation is capillary force and gravity co-driven. The gravitational pressure head can have profound effects on the LHP operation, and such effects depend on the elevation, evaporator heat load, and condenser sink temperature. This paper presents a theoretical study on LHP operations under gravity-neutral, anti-gravity, and gravity-assist modes using pressure diagrams to help understand the underlying physical processes. Effects of the condenser configuration on the gravitational pressure head and LHP operation are also discussed.

Thermal Control Systems↗

A Linearized Prognostic Cloud Scheme in NASAs Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation Tools

A linearized prognostic cloud scheme has been developed to accompany the linearized convection scheme recently implemented in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation tools. The linearization, developed from the nonlinear cloud scheme, treats cloud variables prognostically so they are subject to linearized advection, diffusion, generation, and evaporation. Four linearized cloud variables are modeled, the ice and water phases of clouds generated by large-scale condensation and, separately, by detraining convection. For each species the scheme models their sources, sublimation, evaporation, and autoconversion. Large-scale, anvil and convective species of precipitation are modeled and evaporated. The cloud scheme exhibits linearity and realistic perturbation growth, except around the generation of clouds through large-scale condensation. Discontinuities and steep gradients are widely used here and severe problems occur in the calculation of cloud fraction. For data assimilation applications this poor behavior is controlled by replacing this part of the scheme with a perturbation model. For observation impacts, where efficiency is less of a concern, a filtering is developed that examines the Jacobian. The replacement scheme is only invoked if Jacobian elements or eigenvalues violate a series of tuned constants. The linearized prognostic cloud scheme is tested by comparing the linear and nonlinear perturbation trajectories for 6-, 12-, and 24-h forecast times. The tangent linear model performs well and perturbations of clouds are well captured for the lead times of interest.

Precipitation↗

Environmental Consequences of Big Nasty Impacts on the Early Earth

The geological record of the Archean Earth is spattered with impact spherules from a dozen or so major cosmic collisions involving Earth and asteroids or comets (Lowe, Byerly 1986, 2015). Extrapolation of the documented deposits suggests that most of these impacts were as big or bigger than the Chicxulub event that famously ended the reign of the thunder lizards. As the Archean impacts were greater, the environmental effects were also greater. The number and magnitude of the impacts is bounded by the lunar record. There are no lunar craters bigger than Chicxulub that date to Earth's mid-to-late Archean. Chance dictates that Earth experienced no more than approximately 10 impacts bigger than Chicxulub between 2.5 billion years and 3.5 2.5 billion years, the biggest of which were approximately30-100 times more energetic, comparable to the Orientale impact on the Moon (1x10 (sup 26) joules). To quantify the thermal consequences of big impacts on old Earth, we model the global flow of energy from the impact into the environment. The model presumes that a significant fraction of the impact energy goes into ejecta that interact with the atmosphere. Much of this energy is initially in rock vapor, melt, and high speed particles. (i) The upper atmosphere is heated by ejecta as they reenter the atmosphere. The mix of hot air, rock vapor, and hot silicates cools by thermal radiation. Rock raindrops fall out as the upper atmosphere cools. (ii) The energy balance of the lower atmosphere is set by radiative exchange with the upper atmosphere and with the surface, and by evaporation of seawater. Susequent cooling is governed by condensation of water vapor. (iii) The oceans are heated by thermal radiation and rock rain and cooled by evaporation. Surface waters become hot and salty; if a deep ocean remains it is relatively cool. Subsequently water vapor condenses to replenish the oceans with hot fresh water (how fresh depending on continental weathering, which might be rather rapid under the circumstances). (iv) The surface temperature of dry land is presumed to be the same as the lower atmosphere. A thermal wave propagates into the land at a rate set by conduction. Impacts not greatly larger than Chicxulub can raise the surface temperature by tens, hundreds, or even thousands of degrees, and evaporate meters to hundreds of meters of water. The biggest should have vitrified exposed dry land. More results are for the talk, as here we have run out of space.

asteroids↗

Environmental Consequences of Big Nasty Impacts on the Early Earth

The geological record of the Archean Earth is spattered with impact spherules from a dozen or so major cosmic collisions involving Earth and asteroids or comets (Lowe, Byerly 1986, 2015). Extrapolation of the documented deposits suggests that most of these impacts were as big or bigger than the Chicxulub event that famously ended the reign of the thunder lizards. As the Archean impacts were greater, the environmental effects were also greater. The number and magnitude of the impacts is bounded by the lunar record. There are no lunar craters bigger than Chicxulub that date to Earth's mid-to-late Archean. Chance dictates that Earth experienced no more than approximately 10 impacts bigger than Chicxulub between 2.5 billion years and 3.5 billion years, the biggest of which were approximately 30-100 times more energetic, comparable to the Orientale impact on the Moon (1x10 (sup 26) joules). To quantify the thermal consequences of big impacts on old Earth, we model the global flow of energy from the impact into the environment. The model presumes that a significant fraction of the impact energy goes into ejecta that interact with the atmosphere. Much of this energy is initially in rock vapor, melt, and high speed particles. (i) The upper atmosphere is heated by ejecta as they reenter the atmosphere. The mix of hot air, rock vapor, and hot silicates cools by thermal radiation. Rock raindrops fall out as the upper atmosphere cools. (ii) The energy balance of the lower atmosphere is set by radiative exchange with the upper atmosphere and with the surface, and by evaporation of seawater. Susequent cooling is governed by condensation of water vapor. (iii) The oceans are heated by thermal radiation and rock rain and cooled by evaporation. Surface waters become hot and salty; if a deep ocean remains it is relatively cool. Subsequently water vapor condenses to replenish the oceans with hot fresh water (how fresh depending on continental weathering, which might be rather rapid under the circumstances). (iv) The surface temperature of dry land is presumed to be the same as the lower atmosphere. A thermal wave propagates into the land at a rate set by conduction. Impacts not greatly larger than Chicxulub can raise the surface temperature by tens, hundreds, or even thousands of degrees, and evaporate meters to hundreds of meters of water. The biggest should have vitrified exposed dry land. More results are for the talk, as here we have run out of space.

Archean Earth↗

Impact of Dust Radiative Forcing upon Climate

Dust aerosols perturb the atmospheric radiative flux at both solar and thermal wavelengths, altering the energy and water cycles. The climate adjusts by redistributing energy and moisture, so that local temperature perturbations, for example, depend upon the forcing over the entire extent of the perturbed circulation. Within regions frequently mixed by deep convection, including the deep tropics, dust particles perturb the surface air temperature primarily through radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Many models predict that dust reduces global precipitation. This reduction is typically attributed to the decrease of surface evaporation in response to dimming of the surface. A counterexample is presented, where greater shortwave absorption by dust increases evaporation and precipitation despite greater dimming of the surface. This is attributed to the dependence of surface evaporation upon TOA forcing through its influence upon surface temperature and humidity. Perturbations by dust to the surface wind speed and vegetation (through precipitation anomalies) feed back upon the dust aerosol concentration. The current uncertainty of radiative forcing attributed to dust and the resulting range of climate perturbations calculated by models remain a useful test of our understanding of the mechanisms relating dust radiative forcing to the climate response.

Feedback upon dust mobilization↗

Atmospheric Water Balance and Variability in the MERRA-2 Reanalysis

Closing and balancing Earths global water cycle remains a challenge for the climate community. Observations are limited in duration, global coverage, and frequency, and not all water cycle terms are adequately observed. Reanalyses aim to fill the gaps through the assimilation of as many atmospheric water vapor observations as possible. Former generations of reanalyses have demonstrated a number of systematic problems that have limited their use in climate studies, especially regarding low-frequency trends. This study characterizes the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) water cycle relative to contemporary reanalyses and observations. MERRA-2 includes measures intended to minimize the spurious global variations related to in homogeneity in the observational record. The global balance and cycling of water from ocean to land is presented, with special attention given to the water vapor analysis increment and the effects of the changing observing system. While some systematic regional biases can be identified,MERRA-2 produces temporally consistent time series of total column water and transport of water from ocean to land. However, the interannual variability of ocean evaporation is affected by the changing surface-wind-observing system, and precipitation variability is closely related to the evaporation. The surface energy budget is also strongly influenced by the interannual variability of the ocean evaporation. Furthermore, evaluating the relationship of temperature and water vapor indicates that the variations of water vapor with temperature are weaker in satellite data reanalyses, not just MERRA-2, than determined by observations, atmospheric models, or reanalyses without water vapor assimilation.

MERRA-2↗

Climatic Effect of Impacts on the Ocean

Impact-generated spherule layers provide information pertinent to the environmental consequences of very large impacts on Earth. The spherules are condensed from high velocity impact ejecta ballistically distributed worldwide. These ejecta comprise material from both the impacting body and the target. Much of this material was vaporized or atomized (in the sense of small droplets of fluid, although doubtless some of the vapor species were atomic) in the impact event, cooled and condensed, and then was re-melted or partially evaporated again on re-entry into the atmosphere far from the crater. The energy deposited in the atmosphere by the re-entering ejecta heat the stratosphere where the particles stop to the temperature of hot lava, and thermal radiation from the superheated stratosphere heats the lower atmosphere, any land surfaces, and the evaporate the surface of the ocean; how hot the atmosphere gets and how much water gets evaporated depends on the scale of the impact. The molten or solid raindrops and hailstones eventually fell out of the atmosphere and onto land or into the ocean over the course of hours and days to pile up as spherule beds, and later the finer dust falls out over months and years.

Zahnle, K. J.↗

Influence of Sea-Ice Anomalies on Antarctic Precipitation Using Source Attribution in the Community Earth System Model

We conduct sensitivity experiments using a general circulation model that has an explicit water source tagging capability forced by prescribed composites of pre-industrial sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and corresponding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to understand the impact of sea-ice anomalies on regional evaporation, moisture transport and source–receptor relationships for Antarctic precipitation in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. Surface sensible heat fluxes, evaporation and column-integrated water vapor are larger over Southern Ocean (SO) areas with lower SICs. Changes in Antarctic precipitation and its source attribution with SICs have a strong spatial variability. Among the tagged source regions, the Southern Ocean (south of 50∘ S) contributes the most (40 %) to the Antarctic total precipitation, followed by more northerly ocean basins, most notably the South Pacific Ocean (27%), southern Indian Ocean (16 %) and South Atlantic Ocean (11 %). Comparing two experiments prescribed with high and low pre-industrial SICs, respectively, the annual mean Antarctic precipitation is about 150 Gt yr−1 (or 6 %) more in the lower SIC case than in the higher SIC case. This difference is larger than the model-simulated interannual variability in Antarctic precipitation (99 Gt yr−1). The contrast in contribution from the Southern Ocean, 102 Gt yr−1, is even more significant compared to the interannual variability of 35 Gt yr−1 in Antarctic precipitation that originates from the Southern Ocean. The horizontal transport pathways from individual vapor source regions to Antarctica are largely determined by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Vapor from lower-latitude source regions takes elevated pathways to Antarctica. In contrast, vapor from the Southern Ocean moves southward within the lower troposphere to the Antarctic continent along moist isentropes that are largely shaped by local ambient conditions and coastal topography. This study also highlights the importance of atmospheric dynamics in affecting the thermodynamic impact of sea-ice anomalies associated with natural variability on Antarctic precipitation. Our analyses of the seasonal contrast in changes of basin-scale evaporation, moisture flux and precipitation suggest that the impact of SIC anomalies on regional Antarctic precipitation depends on dynamic changes that arise from SIC–SST perturbations along with internal variability. The latter appears to have a more significant effect on the moisture transport in austral winter than in summer.

Wang, Hailong↗