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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Parametric estimation of Poisson's ratio for thin hinged-hinged plates

Cornu's method is an elegant calculation besieged by an impractical approach to obtain accurate estimates for Poisson's ratio. Conventionally, Cornu's method requires several components, and each component can adversely affect the accuracy of the measurement. Furthermore, Cornu's conventional method requires a long beam because beams with short length-to-width ratios cause the estimate of Poisson's ratio to diverge from the true value of Poisson's ratio. We believe that, with the right modifications, Cornu's method can become an attractive approach to obtaining precise estimates for Poisson's ratio from mode shapes. Here we use finite element simulations to show how to use Cornu's method to estimate Poisson's ratio from a mode shape. Our modified Cornu's method removes knife-edges and loading components for a hinged-hinged plate under steady-state excitation. Given the true value of Poisson's ratio, as a performance specification, we show that simple parametric expressions can fit estimates for Poisson's ratio for different length-to-width ratios of thin hinged-hinged plates. Additionally, we show that estimates for Poisson's ratio from higher modes align with the results from the first mode and explain our expectation for this outcome. Furthermore, our results challenge the idea that anticlastic, monoclastic, and synclastic deformation uniquely correspond to positive, zero, and negative estimates of Poisson's ratio, respectively. With the emergence of materials-by-design, we expect that this parametric technique will be able to assist in experimental qualification of thin beam and plate structures with respect to the desired value of Poisson's ratio.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Joint Bayesian Estimation of Quasar Continua and the Lyα Forest Flux Probability Distribution Function

We present a new Bayesian algorithm making use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling that allows us to simultaneously estimate the unknown continuum level of each quasar in an ensemble of high-resolution spectra, as well as their common probability distribution function (PDF) for the transmitted Lyα forest flux. This fully automated PDF regulated continuum fitting method models the unknown quasar continuum with a linear principal component analysis (PCA) basis, with the PCA coefficients treated as nuisance parameters. The method allows one to estimate parameters governing the thermal state of the intergalactic medium (IGM), such as the slope of the temperature–density relation γ−1, while marginalizing out continuum uncertainties in a fully Bayesian way. Using realistic mock quasar spectra created from a simplified semi-numerical model of the IGM, we show that this method recovers the underlying quasar continua to a precision of ≃7% and ≃10% at z = 3 and z = 5, respectively. Given the number of principal component spectra, this is comparable to the underlying accuracy of the PCA model itself. Most importantly, we show that we can achieve a nearly unbiased estimate of the slope γ−1 of the IGM temperature–density relation with a precision of ±8.6% at z = 3 and ±6.1% at z = 5, for an ensemble of ten mock high-resolution quasar spectra. Applying this method to real quasar spectra and comparing to a more realistic IGM model from hydrodynamical simulations would enable precise measurements of the thermal and cosmological parameters governing the IGM, albeit with somewhat larger uncertainties, given the increased flexibility of the model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Manufacturing Cost Levelization Model – A User’s Guide

The Manufacturing Cost Levelization Model is a cost-performance techno-economic model that estimates total large-scale manufacturing costs for necessary to produce a given product. It is designed to provide production cost estimates for technology researchers to help guide technology research and development towards an eventual cost-effective product. The model presented in this user’s guide is generic and can be tailored to the manufacturing of any product, including the generation of electricity (as a product). This flexibility, however, requires the user to develop the processes and process efficiencies that represents a full-scale manufacturing facility. The generic model is comprised of several modules that estimate variable costs (material, labor, and operating), fixed costs (capital & maintenance), financing structures (debt and equity financing), and tax implications (taxable income after equipment and building depreciation, debt interest payments, and expenses) of a notional manufacturing plant. A cash-flow method is used to estimate a selling price necessary for the manufacturing plant to recover its total cost of production. A levelized unit sales price ($ per unit of product) is determined by dividing the net-present value of the manufacturing plant’s expenses ($) by the net present value of its product output. A user defined production schedule drives the cash-flow method that determines the levelized unit price. In addition, an analyst can increase the levelized unit price to include a gross profit margin to estimate a product sales price. This model allows an analyst to understand the effect that any input variables could have on the cost of manufacturing a product. In addition, the tool is able to perform sensitivity analysis, which can be used to identify the key variables and assumptions that have the greatest influence on the levelized costs. This component is intended to help technology researchers focus their research attention on tasks that offer the greatest opportunities for cost reduction early in the research and development stages of technology invention.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of cosine tapering window on quantum phase estimation

Here, we provide a modification to the quantum phase estimation algorithm (QPEA) [Abrams and Lloyd, Phys. Rev. Lett. 83, 5162 (1999); Cleve et al., Proc. R. Soc. A 454, 339 (1998); Nielsen and Chuang, Quantum computation and quantum information, 2002.] inspired by classical windowing methods for spectral density estimation. From this modification we obtain an upper bound in the cost that implies a cubic improvement with respect to the algorithm's error rate. Numerical evaluation of the costs also demonstrates an improvement. Moreover, with similar techniques, we detail an iterative projective measurement method for ground state preparation that gives an exponential improvement over previous bounds using QPEA. Numerical tests that confirm the expected scaling behavior are also obtained. For these numerical tests we have used a lattice Thirring model as testing ground. Using well-known perturbation theory results, we also show how to more appropriately estimate the cost scaling with respect to state error instead of evolution operator error.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Estimation of Body Fat Percentage for Clinical Pharmacokinetic Studies in Children

Obesity is a prevalent childhood condition and the degree of adiposity appears likely to be an important covariate in the pharmacokinetics (PKs) of many drugs. We undertook these studies to facilitate the evaluation and, where appropriate, quantification of the covariate effect of body fat percentage (BF%) on PK parameters in children. We examined two large databases to determine the values and variabilities of BF% in children with healthy body weights and in those with obesity, comparing the accuracy and precision of BF% estimation by both clinical methods and demographically derived techniques. Additionally, we conducted simulation studies to evaluate the utility of the several methods for application in clinical trials. BF% was correlated with body mass index (BMI), but was highly variable among both children with healthy body weights and those with obesity. Bio‐impedance and several demographically derived techniques produced mean estimates of BF% that differed from dual x‐ray absorptiometry by < 1% (accuracy) and a SD of 5% or less (precision). Simulation studies confirmed that when the differences in precision among the several methods were small compared with unexplained between‐subject variability of a PK parameter, the techniques were of similar value in assessing the contribution of BF%, if any, as a covariate for that PK parameter. The combination of sex and obesity stage explained 68% of the variance of BF% with BMI. The estimation of BF% from sex and obesity stage can routinely be applied to PK clinical trials to evaluate the contribution of BF% as a potential covariate.

Green, Thomas P.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Revisiting the completeness and luminosity function in high-redshift low-luminosity quasar surveys

Recent studies have derived quasar luminosity functions (QLFs) at various redshifts. However, the faint side of the QLF at high redshifts is still too uncertain. An accurate estimate of the survey completeness is essential to derive an accurate QLF for use in studying the luminosity-dependent density evolution (LDDE) of the quasar population. Here we investigate how the luminosity dependence of quasar spectra (the Baldwin effect) and the attenuation model for the intergalactic medium (IGM) affect the completeness estimates. For this purpose, we specifically revisit the completeness of quasar surveys at z∼4--5, using the COSMOS images observed with Subaru/Suprime-Cam. As a result, we find that the completeness estimates are sensitive to the luminosity dependence of the quasar spectrum and to different the IGM attenuation models. At z∼4, the number density of quasars when we adopt the latest IGM model and take the luminosity dependence of spectra into account is (3.49±1.62)×10{sup −7} Mpc{sup −3} mag{sup −1} for −24.09<M{sub 1450}<−23.09 and (5.24±2.13)×10{sup −7} Mpc{sup −3} mag{sup −1} for −23.09<M{sub 1450}<−22.09, which are ∼24% lower than that estimated by the conventional method. On the other hand, at z∼5, the 1σ confidence upper limit of the number density at −24.5<M{sub 1450}<−22.5 in our new estimates is ∼43% higher than that estimated previously. The results suggest that the luminosity dependence of the quasar spectrum and the IGM model are important for deriving the accurate number density of high-z quasars. Even taking these effects into account, the inferred LDDE of quasars is consistent with the AGN downsizing evolutionary picture.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Gray-Box Modeling for Distribution Systems With Inverter-Based Resources: Integrating Physics-Based and Data-Driven Approaches

Here, in this paper, we develop a novel gray-box modeling approach for distribution systems with inverter-based resources (IBRs). The proposed gray-box modeling method aims to improve estimation accuracy by taking advantages of both physics-based (white-box) and data-driven (black-box) modeling approaches. To this end, we utilize partial physical knowledge of the system, including the inverters’ structures and control diagrams, as well as the equivalent network model simplified through Kron reduction. The white-box model containing unknown parameters is then constructed with mathematical equations and an optimization-based method is subsequently employed to identify these unknown parameters within the white-box model. Next, the graybox modeling framework is then constructed by embedding the output variables of the white-box model into the input vector of a black-box model (represented using a neural network). Finally, the black-box section is trained using the collected input-output datasets and the gray-box model is then obtained. Furthermore, case studies demonstrate that our gray-box modeling approach effectively improves estimation accuracy compared to purely physics-based or data-driven methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced Boundary Layer Height Detection Using Ceilometer, Surface Meteorology, and Radiation Products With a Random Forest Ensemble Method

This study develops and evaluates a Random Forest (RF) model for estimating planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) using 9 years of data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM SGP) user facility, with potential application in the NOAA Surface Radiation (SURFRAD) Network. The model integrates ceilometer, surface meteorology, and radiation measurements, and is trained using thermodynamic PBLH estimates derived from radiosondes. This approach aims to bridge gaps between aerosol-based and thermodynamic-based PBLH estimates. The RF model outperformed traditional methods during daytime and better captured transition periods, demonstrating improved accuracy and robustness. At ARM SGP, it showed a substantial reduction in both bias and RMSE, with a bias near zero (−4.9 m) compared with traditional Haar Wavelet (HW) (70.9 m) and Vaisala BL-View software (124.1 m), and an RMSE of 303.2 m, lower than both BL-View (566.9 m) and HW (404.6 m). During daytime hours, RF consistently outperformed both alternatives, maintaining lower bias and RMSE across all periods. At a second evaluation site, RF achieved the lowest overall RMSE (323.7 m), similar to HW (326.4 m) and significantly better than BL-View (738.3 m). However, all models showed reduced accuracy under stable nighttime conditions, limiting the reliability of PBLH estimates. Key predictors for the model included the lifting condensation level height (LCLH), aerosol gradients, and month for seasonal variability. The study underscores the potential of integrating machine learning with multiple data sets such as surface energy and thermodynamic data to advance PBLH estimation.

boundary layer height↗
DOE OSTI2020

Battery system management through non-linear estimation of battery state of charge

Systems, methods, and computer media for battery system management and non-linear estimation of battery state of charge are provided herein. Battery data is received for a time period over which a battery system has operated. The battery data represents the actual performance of the battery system over the time period. Sub-periods of charging or discharging can be identified in the time period. For the sub-periods of time, a curve can be fit to the battery data. Using the curves for the battery data for the sub-periods of time, an expected performance of the battery system, over a range of states-of-charge, can be determined. Operating instructions for the battery system can be provided based on the expected performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Battery system management through non-linear estimation of battery state of charge

Systems, methods, and computer media for battery system management and non-linear estimation of battery state of charge are provided herein. Battery data is received for a time period over which a battery system has operated. The battery data represents the actual performance of the battery system over the time period. Sub-periods of charging or discharging can be identified in the time period. For the sub-periods of time, a curve can be fit to the battery data. Using the curves for the battery data for the sub-periods of time, an expected performance of the battery system, over a range of states-of-charge, can be determined. Operating instructions for the battery system can be provided based on the expected performance.

Crawford, Alasdair James↗
DOE OSTI2016

PERIOD ESTIMATION FOR SPARSELY SAMPLED QUASI-PERIODIC LIGHT CURVES APPLIED TO MIRAS

We develop a nonlinear semi-parametric Gaussian process model to estimate periods of Miras with sparsely sampled light curves. The model uses a sinusoidal basis for the periodic variation and a Gaussian process for the stochastic changes. We use maximum likelihood to estimate the period and the parameters of the Gaussian process, while integrating out the effects of other nuisance parameters in the model with respect to a suitable prior distribution obtained from earlier studies. Since the likelihood is highly multimodal for period, we implement a hybrid method that applies the quasi-Newton algorithm for Gaussian process parameters and search the period/frequency parameter space over a dense grid. A large-scale, high-fidelity simulation is conducted to mimic the sampling quality of Mira light curves obtained by the M33 Synoptic Stellar Survey. The simulated data set is publicly available and can serve as a testbed for future evaluation of different period estimation methods. The semi-parametric model outperforms an existing algorithm on this simulated test data set as measured by period recovery rate and quality of the resulting period–luminosity relations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Explainable machine learning model for multi-step forecasting of reservoir inflow with uncertainty quantification

We propose an explainable machine learning (ML) model with uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve multi-step reservoir inflow forecasting. Traditional ML methods have challenges in forecasting inflows multiple days ahead, and lack explainability and UQ. To address these limitations, we introduce an encoder–decoder long short-term memory (ED-LSTM) network for multi-step forecasting, employ the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) technique for understanding the influence of hydrometeorological factors on inflow prediction, and develop a novel UQ method for prediction trustworthiness. We apply these methods to forecast 7-day inflow in snow-dominant and rain-driven reservoirs. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the ED-LSTM model, with high forecasting accuracy for short lead times. Our UQ method provides reliable uncertainty estimates, covering 90% of data with a 90% confidence level. The SHAP analysis reveals the importance of historical inflow and precipitation as influential factors. These findings and methods may support reservoir operators in optimizing water resources management decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Adaptive mesh refinement for steady flows in Nek5000

Adaptive mesh refinement is performed in the framework of the spectral element method augmented by approaches to error estimation and control. The h-refinement technique is used for adapting the mesh, where selected grid elements are split by a quadtree (2D) or octree (3D) structure. Continuity between parent-child elements is enforced by high-order interpolation of the solution across the common faces. Parallel mesh partitioning and grid management respectively, are taken care of by the external libraries ParMETIS and p4est. Two methods are considered for estimating and controlling the error of the solution. The first error estimate is local and based on the spectral properties of the solution on each element. This method gives a local measure of the L-2-norm of the solution over the entire computational domain. The second error estimate uses the dual-weighted residuals method - it is based on and takes into account both the local properties of the solution and the global dependence of the error in the solution via an adjoint problem. The objective of this second approach is to optimize the computation of a given functional of physical interest. The simulations are performed by using the code Nek5000 and three steady-state test cases are studied: a two-dimensional lid-driven cavity at Re = 7, 500, a two-dimensional flow past a cylinder at Re = 40, and a three-dimensional lid-driven cavity at Re = 2,000 with a moving lid tilted by an angle of 30 degrees. Finally, the efficiency of both error estimators is compared in terms of refinement patterns and accuracy on the functional of interest. In the case of the adjoint error estimators, the trend on the error of the functional is shown to be correctly represented up to a multiplicative constant.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Density estimation techniques for multiscale coupling of kinetic models of the plasma material interface

In this work we analyze two classes of Density-Estimation techniques which can be used to consistently couple different kinetic models of the plasma-material interface, intended as the region of plasma immediately interacting with the first surface layers of a material wall. In particular, we handle the general problem of interfacing a continuum multi-species Vlasov-Poisson-BGK plasma model to discrete surface erosion models. The continuum model solves for the energy-angle distributions of the particles striking the surface, which are then driving the surface response. A modification to the classical Binary-Collision Approximation (BCA) method is here utilized as a prototype discrete model of the surface, to provide boundary conditions and impurity distributions representative of the material behavior during plasma irradiation. The numerical tests revealed the superior convergence properties of Gaussian Mixture Models over Kernel Density Estimation methods, with Gaussian Mixtures and Epanechnikov-KDEs both being up to two orders of magnitude faster than Gaussian-KDEs. The methodology here presented allows a self-consistent treatment of the plasma-material interface in magnetic fusion devices, including both the near-surface plasma (plasma sheath and presheath) in magnetized conditions, and surface effects such as sputtering, back-scattering, and ion implantation. The same coupling techniques can also be utilized for other discrete material models such as Molecular Dynamics.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantification of air leakage paths: a comparison of airflow and acoustic measurements

Today, the fan pressurization method is the most frequently used method to evaluate a building's airtightness. However, the localization and quantification of leaks remain difficult. In this paper, an acoustic method is introduced to estimate the leakage size of single leaks. Acoustic and airflow measurements were conducted and compared in laboratory tests within the same boundary conditions. This work aims to investigate if various leak sizes can be predicted using acoustic measurement methods. The test apparatus consists of two chambers, separated by a test wall. This wall represents a single characteristic air leakage path. Various types of wall structures with different slit geometries, wall thicknesses, and insulation materials were investigated. The acoustic measurements were performed with a sound source placed in one chamber and ultrasonic microphones located in both chambers. These results were compared to measured airflows through the test wall to provide estimates of uncertainty in the acoustic approach, which indicate a linear trend. Finally, these laboratory measurements were compared to the same measurements at a real office building. Finally, although the acoustic measurement uncertainty is still significant (greater than +/- 50%), the acoustic method has the potential to give an order of magnitude of single leak sizes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2018

Construction of the Nordsieck second derivative methods with RK stability for stiff ODEs

In this paper, we study the construction and implementation of special Nordsieck second derivative general linear methods of order p and stage order q=p in which the number of input and output values is r=p rather than r=p+1. We will construct A- and L-stable methods of orders three and four in this form with Runge–Kutta stability properties. The efficiency of the constructed methods and reliability of the proposed error estimates are shown by implementing of the methods in a variable stepsize environment on some well-known stiff problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

An improved numerical method to compute neutron/gamma deexcitation cascades starting from a high spin state

Numerous nuclear processes involve the deexcitation of a compound nucleus through the emission of several neutrons, gamma-rays and/or conversion electrons. The characteristics of such a deexcitation are commonly derived from a total statistical framework often called “Hauser–Feshbach” method. In this work, we highlight a numerical limitation of this kind of method in the case of the deexcitation of a high spin initial state. To circumvent this issue, an improved technique called the Fluctuating Structure Properties (FSP) method is presented. Two FSP algorithms are derived and benchmarked on the calculation of the total radiative width for a thermal neutron capture on 238 U. We compare the standard method with these FSP algorithms for the prediction of particle multiplicities in the deexcitation of a high spin level of 143 Ba. The gamma multiplicity turns out to be very sensitive to the numerical method. The bias between the two techniques can reach 1.5 γγ/cascade. Lastly, the uncertainty of these calculations coming from the lack of knowledge on nuclear structure is estimated via the FSP method.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗