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DOE OSTI2022

Occlusion-Perturbed Deep Learning for Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Sky Images

Solar forecasting is shifting to the probabilistic paradigm due to the inherent uncertainty within the solar resource. Input uncertainty quantification is one of the widely used and best-performing ways to model solar uncertainty. However, compared to other sources of inputs, such as numerical weather prediction models, pure sky image-based probabilistic solar forecasting lags behind. In this research, an occlusion-perturbed convolutional neural network, named the PSolarNet, is developed. The PSolarNet provides very short-term deterministic forecasts, forecast scenarios, and probabilistic forecasts of the global horizontal irradiance from sky image sequences. Case studies based on 6 years of open-source data show that the developed PSolarNet is able to generate accurate 10-minute ahead deterministic forecasts with a 5.62% normalized root mean square error, realistic and diverse forecast scenarios with a 0.966 average correlation with the actual time series, and reliable and sharp probabilistic forecasts with a 2.77% normalized continuous ranked probability score.

Bayesian model averaging↗

DOE OSTI2022

Occlusion-Perturbed Deep Learning for Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Sky Images: Preprint

Bayesian model averaging↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integration of Condition-Based, Diagnostic, Prognostic, And Anomaly Detection Data into Reliability Models to Support a Predictive Maintenance Context

Reliability data employed in plant reliability models are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating actual health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). This paper proposes a reliability modeling approach that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. We show how state-of-the art condition-based, diagnostic, prognostic, and anomaly detection models can be linked to system reliability models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is defined as the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Then, we show how the propagation of margin data from the asset to the system level is performed through classical reliability models such as fault trees or reliability block diagrams. The described method is in fact able to propagate heterogenous health data from the asset to the system level in order to analytically assess system health.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multifidelity Ensemble Kalman Filtering Using Surrogate Models Defined by Theory-Guided Autoencoders

Data assimilation is a Bayesian inference process that obtains an enhanced understanding of a physical system of interest by fusing information from an inexact physics-based model, and from noisy sparse observations of reality. The multifidelity ensemble Kalman filter (MFEnKF) recently developed by the authors combines a full-order physical model and a hierarchy of reduced order surrogate models in order to increase the computational efficiency of data assimilation. The standard MFEnKF uses linear couplings between models, and is statistically optimal in case of Gaussian probability densities. This work extends the MFEnKF into to make use of a broader class of surrogate model such as those based on machine learning methods such as autoencoders non-linear couplings in between the model hierarchies. We identify the right-invertibility property for autoencoders as being a key predictor of success in the forecasting power of autoencoder-based reduced order models. We propose a methodology that allows us to construct reduced order surrogate models that are more accurate than the ones obtained via conventional linear methods. Numerical experiments with the canonical Lorenz'96 model illustrate that nonlinear surrogates perform better than linear projection-based ones in the context of multifidelity ensemble Kalman filtering. We additionality show a large-scale proof-of-concept result with the quasi-geostrophic equations, showing the competitiveness of the method with a traditional reduced order model-based MFEnKF.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

DATA-CONSTRAINED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS IN A GLOBAL MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMICS MODEL

We present a first-principles-based coronal mass ejection (CME) model suitable for both scientific and operational purposes by combining a global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) solar wind model with a flux-rope-driven CME model. Realistic CME events are simulated self-consistently with high fidelity and forecasting capability by constraining initial flux rope parameters with observational data from GONG, SOHO /LASCO, and STEREO /COR. We automate this process so that minimum manual intervention is required in specifying the CME initial state. With the newly developed data-driven Eruptive Event Generator using Gibson–Low configuration, we present a method to derive Gibson–Low flux rope parameters through a handful of observational quantities so that the modeled CMEs can propagate with the desired CME speeds near the Sun. A test result with CMEs launched with different Carrington rotation magnetograms is shown. Our study shows a promising result for using the first-principles-based MHD global model as a forecasting tool, which is capable of predicting the CME direction of propagation, arrival time, and ICME magnetic field at 1 au (see the companion paper by Jin et al. 2016a).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Application of periodic perturbations to a RELAP5 hydraulic simulation to determine frequency response

Time series analysis requires a collection of data taken sequentially in time to apply techniques for identification, modeling, prediction or control purposes. Some systems operating at steady state are perturbed with white noise to extract system information using autoregressive models or spectral analysis, and then the dynamic response is used to assess system properties. If it is not possible to perturb the physical system, a mathematical model can be used to work with and study the perturbation effect. In this work, the system object of perturbation study is a RELAP5 hydraulic model, and since the excitation with a white noise sequence is not readily implementable, an alternative is proposed to apply a series of periodic steps in a square wave pattern. With this periodic excitation, the output of a RELAP5 model for a hydraulic piping system can be analyzed with frequency domain tools. The piping systems can be found in the balance of plant of a steam power plant, and the aim of this work is to explore the capability of RELAP5 to determine system frequency characteristics linked to mechanical vibration in operating lines of a power plant. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Comparison of Mixed Layer Heights from Airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar, Ground-based Measurements, and the WRP-Chem Model during CalNex and CARES

The California Research at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change (CalNex) and Carbonaceous Aerosol and Radiative Effects Study (CARES) field campaigns during May and June 2010 provided a data set appropriate for studying characteristics of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) was deployed to California onboard the NASA LaRC B-200 aircraft to aid incharacterizing aerosol properties during these two field campaigns. Measurements of aerosol extinction (532 nm), backscatter (532 and 1064 nm), and depolarization (532 and 1064 nm) profiles during 31 flights, many in coordination with other research aircraft and ground sites, constitute a diverse data set for use in characterizing the spatial and temporal distribution of aerosols, as well as the depth and variability of the daytime mixed layer (ML), which is a subset within the PBL. This work illustrates the temporal and spatial variability of the ML in the vicinity of Los Angeles and Sacramento, CA. ML heights derived from HSRL measurements are compared to PBL heights derived from radiosonde profiles, ML heights measured from ceilometers, and simulated PBL heights from the Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry (WRF-Chem) community model. Comparisons between the HSRL ML heights and the radiosonde profiles in Sacramento result in a correlation coefficient value (R) of 0.93 (root7 mean-square (RMS) difference of 157 m and bias difference (HSRL radiosonde) of 5 m). HSRL ML heights compare well with those from the ceilometer in the LA Basin with an R of 0.89 (RMS difference of 108 m and bias difference (HSRL Ceilometer) of -9.7 m) for distances of up to 30 km between the B-200 flight track and the ceilometer site. Simulated PBL heights from WRF-Chem were compared with those obtained from all flights for each campaign, producing an R of 0.58 (RMS difference of 604 m and a bias difference (WRF-Chem HSRL) of -157 m) for CalNex and 0.59 (RMS difference of 689 m and a bias difference (WRF-Chem HSRL) of 220 m) for CARES. Aerosol backscatter simulations are also available from WRF15 Chem and are compared to those from HSRL to examine differences among the methods used to derive ML heights.

Scarino, Amy Jo↗

DOE OSTI2018

Wave forecast and its application to the optimal control of offshore floating wind turbine for load mitigation

Control algorithms play an important role in energy capture and load mitigation for offshore floating wind turbines (OFWTs). One of the advanced and effective control techniques is the feedforward or model predictive control approach, which requires the forecast of incoming environment conditions. For OFWTs, wave loading is one of the dominant sources to excite structural responses. This study is thus motivated to develop forecasting algorithms for wave elevations and wave excitation forces with the purpose of applying feedforward controllers on OFWTs. Two forecasting algorithms, the approximate Prony Method based on ESPRIT (Estimation of Signal Parameters via Rotational Invariance Techniques) and SVM (Support Vector Machine) regression, are developed and validated using wave records from tank tests. Utilizing the forecasted wave elevations and wave excitation forces, a feedforward LQR controller is designed to mitigate structural loads of an OFWT system.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning Experiments for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

Reducing tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast errors is a challenging task that has interested the operational forecasting and research community for decades. To address this, we developed a deep learning (DL)-based multilayer perceptron (MLP) TC intensity prediction model. The model was trained using the global Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) predictors to forecast the change in TC maximum wind speed for the Atlantic basin. In the first experiment, a 24-h forecast period was considered. To overcome sample size limitations, we adopted a leave one year out (LOYO) testing scheme, where a model is trained using data from all years except one and then evaluated on the year that is left out. When tested on 2010–18 operational data using the LOYO scheme, the MLP outperformed other statistical–dynamical models by 9%–20%. Additional independent tests in 2019 and 2020 were conducted to simulate real-time operational forecasts, where the MLP model again outperformed the statistical–dynamical models by 5%–22% and achieved comparable results as HWFI. The MLP model also correctly predicted more rapid intensification events than all the four operational TC intensity models compared. In the second experiment, we developed a lightweight MLP for 6-h intensity predictions. When coupled with a synthetic TC track model, the lightweight MLP generated realistic TC intensity distribution in the Atlantic basin. Therefore, the MLP-based approach has the potential to improve operational TC intensity forecasts, and will also be a viable option for generating synthetic TCs for climate studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Integrated Platform for Wind Plant Operations: From Atmosphere to Electrons to the Grid

Under the Atmosphere to Electrons to Grid project (A2e2g), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is developing an optimization platform for wind plant operations. The platform merges forecasting tools with aerodynamic and economic models in order to identify optimal operating schedules and controller functions that will maximize a wind plant's value streams for energy and other grid services. In this presentation, we will describe functionalities of the platform. We will also discuss the implications the use of the platform might have for understanding and valuing the capabilities of wind resources for power system operations.

A2E2G↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Orographic Drag Schemes on East Asia Rainfall

Current generation of climate models often has significant biases in mountainous regions where the gradient of elevation is steep, and the terrain is complex. Potential reasons for these biases include under‐representation of orographic drag process in climate models. In this study, we assess the impact of orographic drag on East Asia rainfall by comparing the impact of a new orographic drag scheme that considers 3D orographic anisotropy (3D‐oro) with a 2‐D scheme in a general circulation model. Two sets of simulations (medium‐range and seasonal forecast) are carried out for the comparison and validation against observation. It is shown that through local/remote forcing of the drag in the mountainous regions, the 3D‐oro alleviates part of the excessive rainfall in west Tibetan Plateau and parts of insufficient rainfall in Southeast China by about 25%∼50% in the January/winter forecasts; it alleviates about 25%∼50% of the rainfall bias in part of south Tibetan Plateau and of East Asia in the July/summer forecasts. The results suggest the importance of improved orographic drag process and its impact in climate modeling for those regions that are prone to significant impact of hydroclimate events.

orographic anisotropy↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nuclear Material Process Modeling at the Y-12 National Security Complex

Dynamic simulation modeling is used at Y-12 to evaluate and forecast nuclear material inventories and production capacities to ensure that future supply can meet mission demand. Model outputs are analyzed by numerous Y-12 organizations and programs and coordinated with NNSA’s Office of Secondary Stage Production Modernization. Data-driven decisions for both short-term and long-term strategic planning for Y-12 mission execution are informed by the model. Dynamic simulation modeling capabilities for Y-12 nuclear material production continue to be expanded and refined.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2015

Mapping intra-field yield variation using high resolution satellite imagery to integrate bioenergy and environmental stewardship in an agricultural watershed

Biofuels are important alternatives for meeting our future energy needs. Successful bioenergy crop production requires maintaining environmental sustainability and minimum impacts on current net annual food, feed, and fiber production. The objectives of this study were to: (1) determine under-productive areas within an agricultural field in a watershed using a single date; high resolution remote sensing and (2) examine impacts of growing bioenergy crops in the under-productive areas using hydrologic modeling in order to facilitate sustainable landscape design. Normalized difference indices (NDIs) were computed based on the ratio of all possible two-band combinations using the RapidEye and the National Agricultural Imagery Program images collected in summer 2011. A multiple regression analysis was performed using 10 NDIs and five RapidEye spectral bands. The regression analysis suggested that the red and near infrared bands and NDI using red-edge and near infrared that is known as the red-edge normalized difference vegetation index (RENDVI) had the highest correlation (R 2 = 0.524) with the reference yield. Although predictive yield map showed striking similarity to the reference yield map, the model had modest correlation; thus, further research is needed to improve predictive capability for absolute yields. Forecasted impact using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model of growing switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) on under-productive areas based on corn yield thresholds of 3.1, 4.7, and 6.3 Mg·ha -1 showed reduction of tile NO 3 -N and sediment exports by 15.9%–25.9% and 25%–39%, respectively. Corresponding reductions in water yields ranged from 0.9% to 2.5%. While further research is warranted, the study demonstrated the integration of remote sensing and hydrologic modeling to quantify the multifunctional value of projected future landscape patterns in a context of sustainable bioenergy crop production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Mathematical Model for Evaluating the Technical Condition and Predicting Collapse of Protective Barriers on Flooded Radiation-Hazardous Sites

The possible consequences of flooding of nuclear and radiation-hazardous sites and objects should be included among the environmental risks arising during the rapid development of the infrastructure in the Arctic. A mathematical model, algorithms, and software codes for evaluating the condition and predicting the collapse of the protective barriers, and determining the emission rate of radionuclides and the possible radioactive contamination of the environment, including long-term prediction and situation analysis, have been developed. The software codes have been accepted into the government registry at Rospatent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Market and Modeling Uncertainty in Distributed Solar Deployment Projections: A Multi-Model Comparison

Distributed solar photovoltaic (DPV) systems that generate energy in behind-the-meter (BTM) applications for residential, commercial, and other end-user sectors are a growing and contentious development in the U.S. power system. While less than one percent of all electricity generation in the United States came from DPV systems in 2016 (EIA, April 2017), this technology has experienced rapid growth in recent years and, as of the start of 2017, over 1.3 million DPV systems had been installed (Munsell 2017). Thus, projecting the feasibility and potential timing of mass-market breakout of distributed solar is increasingly pertinent - yet projections remain highly uncertain.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Considerations for Short-Term Load Forecasting of Morocco

There are many factors that determine how demand for electricity may change over time. The analysis described in this report is focused on using auto-regressive models and neural networks to examine load-forecasting techniques for the next 24 hours.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Improving Mixed-phase Cloud Parameterization in Climate Model with the ACRF Measurements

Mixed-phase cloud microphysical and dynamical processes are still poorly understood, and their representation in GCMs is a major source of uncertainties in overall cloud feedback in GCMs. Thus improving mixed-phase cloud parameterizations in climate models is critical to reducing the climate forecast uncertainties. This study aims at providing improved knowledge of mixed-phase cloud properties from the long-term ACRF observations and improving mixed-phase clouds simulations in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). The key accomplishments are: 1) An improved retrieval algorithm was developed to provide liquid droplet concentration for drizzling or mixed-phase stratiform clouds. 2) A new ice concentration retrieval algorithm for stratiform mixed-phase clouds was developed. 3) A strong seasonal aerosol impact on ice generation in Arctic mixed-phase clouds was identified, which is mainly attributed to the high dust occurrence during the spring season. 4) A suite of multi-senor algorithms was applied to long-term ARM observations at the Barrow site to provide a complete dataset (LWC and effective radius profile for liquid phase, and IWC, Dge profiles and ice concentration for ice phase) to characterize Arctic stratiform mixed-phase clouds. This multi-year stratiform mixed-phase cloud dataset provides necessary information to study related processes, evaluate model stratiform mixed-phase cloud simulations, and improve model stratiform mixed-phase cloud parameterization. 5). A new in situ data analysis method was developed to quantify liquid mass partition in convective mixed-phase clouds. For the first time, we reliably compared liquid mass partitions in stratiform and convective mixed-phase clouds. Due to the different dynamics in stratiform and convective mixed-phase clouds, the temperature dependencies of liquid mass partitions are significantly different due to much higher ice concentrations in convective mixed phase clouds. 6) Systematic evaluations of mixed-phase cloud simulations by CAM5 were performed. Measurement results indicate that ice concentrations control stratiform mixed-phase cloud properties. The improvement of ice concentration parameterization in the CAM5 was done in close collaboration with Dr. Xiaohong Liu, PNNL (now at University of Wyoming).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Day-ahead photovoltaic power production forecasting methodology based on machine learning and statistical post-processing

A main challenge towards ensuring large-scale and seamless integration of photovoltaic systems is to improve the accuracy of energy yield forecasts, especially in grid areas of high photovoltaic shares. The scope of this paper is to address this issue by presenting a unified methodology for hourly-averaged day-ahead photovoltaic power forecasts with improved accuracy, based on data-driven machine learning techniques and statistical post-processing. More specifically, the proposed forecasting methodology framework comprised of a data quality stage, data-driven power output machine learning model development (artificial neural networks), weather clustering assessment (K-means clustering), post-processing output optimisation (linear regressive correction method) and the final performance accuracy evaluation. The results showed that the application of linear regression coefficients to the forecasted outputs of the developed day-ahead photovoltaic power production neural network improved the performance accuracy by further correcting solar irradiance forecasting biases. The resulting optimised model provided a mean absolute percentage error of 4.7% when applied to historical system datasets. Finally, the model was validated both, at a hot as well as a cold semi-arid climatic location, and the obtained results demonstrated close agreement by yielding forecasting accuracies of mean absolute percentage error of 4.7% and 6.3%, respectively. Finally, the validation analysis provides evidence that the proposed model exhibits high performance in both forecasting accuracy and stability.

42 ENGINEERING↗