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Integrating Renewable Generation into Grid Operations: Four International Experiences

International experiences with power sector restructuring and the resultant impacts on bulk power grid operations and planning may provide insight into policy questions for the evolving United States power grid as resource mixes are changing in response to fuel prices, an aging generation fleet and to meet climate goals. Australia, Germany, Japan and the UK were selected to represent a range in the level and attributes of electricity industry liberalization in order to draw comparisons across a variety of regions in the United States such as California, ERCOT, the Southwest Power Pool and the Southeast Reliability Region. The study draws conclusions through a literature review of the four case study countries with regards to the changing resource mix and the electricity industry sector structure and their impact on grid operations and planning. This paper derives lessons learned and synthesizes implications for the United States based on answers to the above questions and the challenges faced by the four selected countries. Each country was examined to determine the challenges to their bulk power sector based on their changing resource mix, market structure, policies driving the changing resource mix, and policies driving restructuring. Each countries’ approach to solving those changes was examined, as well as how each country’s market structure either exacerbated or mitigated the approaches to solving the challenges to their bulk power grid operations and planning. All countries’ policies encourage renewable energy generation. One significant finding included the low- to zero-marginal cost of intermittent renewables and its potential negative impact on long-term resource adequacy. No dominant solution has emerged although a capacity market was introduced in the UK and is being contemplated in Japan. Germany has proposed the Energy Market 2.0 to encourage flexible generation investment. The grid operator in Australia proposed several approaches to maintaining synchronous generation. Interconnections to other regions provides added opportunities for balancing that would not be available otherwise, and at this point, has allowed for integration of renewables.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Assessment of U.S. Manufacturing Capability for Next-Generation Wind Turbine Drivetrains

Robust U.S. wind turbine manufacturing capabilities and supply chains are important for the United States to reduce the cost of electricity generated from wind turbines. These capabilities and supply chains are also critical to the invention and commercialization of new wind turbine technologies while providing high-quality jobs. The development of advanced drivetrain technologies for windturbine applications is advancing the state of the art for drivetrain design by producing higher capacity and operating reliability than conventional drivetrains. Advanced drivetrain technologies such as medium-speed and direct-drive generators, silicon-carbide (SiC) IGBT-based power electronics, and high torque density speed increasers require different manufacturing and supply chaincapabilities that present both risks and opportunities for U.S. wind turbine manufacturers and the wind industry as a whole. The primary objective of this project is to assess how advanced drivetrain technologies and trends will impact U.S. wind turbine manufacturing and its supply chains. The U.S. Department of Energy and other industry participants will use the information from this study toidentify domestic manufacturing gaps, barriers, and opportunities for developing U.S. wind turbine manufacturing capabilities and supply chains for next-generation drivetrain technologies. This report also includes recommendations for prioritizing technology areas for possible investments by public, private, or nonprofit entities that will reduce the cost of wind-generated electricity. Suchinvestments foster opportunities to invent and commercialize new wind turbine technologies, and provide high-quality jobs in the United States.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Power Generation System Definition: Concept Definition and Capital Cost Estimate

The Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Renewable Power (ORP) has been tasked to provide effective program management and strategic direction for all of the DOE’s Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy’s (EERE’s) renewable power programs. The ORP’s efforts to accomplish this mission are aligned with national energy policies, DOE strategic planning, EERE’s strategic planning, Congressional appropriation, and stakeholder advice. ORP is supported by three renewable energy offices, of which one is the Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) whose SunShot Initiative has a mission to accelerate research, development and large scale deployment of solar technologies in the United States. SETO has a goal of reducing the cost of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) by 75 percent of 2010 costs by 2020 to reach parity with base-load energy rates, and 30 percent further reductions by 2030. The SunShot Initiative is promoting the implementation of high temperature CSP with thermal energy storage allowing generation during high demand hours. The SunShot Initiative has funded significant research and development work on component testing, with attention to high temperature molten salts, heliostats, receiver designs, and high efficiency high temperature supercritical CO 2 (sCO2) cycles. DOE retained Black & Veatch to support SETO’s SunShot Initiative for CSP solar power tower technology in the following areas: 1. Concept definition, including costs and schedule, of a flexible test facility to be used to test and prove components in part to support financing. 2. Concept definition, including costs and schedule, of an integrated high temperature molten salt (MS) facility with thermal energy storage and with a supercritical CO 2 cycle generating approximately 10MWe. 3. Concept definition, including costs and schedule, of an integrated high temperature falling particle facility with thermal energy storage and with a supercritical CO 2 cycle generating approximately 10MWe. This report addresses the concept definition of the sCO2 power generation system, a sub-set of items 2 and 3 above. Other reports address the balance of items 1 to 3 above as well as the MS/sCO2 integrated 10MWe facility, Item 2.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Performance of Irikura's Recipe Rupture Model Generator in Earthquake Ground Motion Simulations as Implemented in the Graves and Pitarka Hybrid Approach.

We analyzed the performance of the Irikura and Miyake (2011) (IM2011) asperity-­ based kinematic rupture model generator, as implemented in the hybrid broadband ground-­motion simulation methodology of Graves and Pitarka (2010), for simulating ground motion from crustal earthquakes of intermediate size. The primary objective of our study is to investigate the transportability of IM2011 into the framework used by the Southern California Earthquake Center broadband simulation platform. In our analysis, we performed broadband (0 -­ 20Hz) ground motion simulations for a suite of M6.7 crustal scenario earthquakes in a hard rock seismic velocity structure using rupture models produced with both IM2011 and the rupture generation method of Graves and Pitarka (2016) (GP2016). The level of simulated ground motions for the two approaches compare favorably with median estimates obtained from the 2014 Next Generation Attenuation-­West2 Project (NGA-­West2) ground-­motion prediction equations (GMPEs) over the frequency band 0.1–10 Hz and for distances out to 22 km from the fault. We also found that, compared to GP2016, IM2011 generates ground motion with larger variability, particularly at near-­fault distances (<12km) and at long periods (>1s). For this specific scenario, the largest systematic difference in ground motion level for the two approaches occurs in the period band 1 – 3 sec where the IM2011 motions are about 20 – 30% lower than those for GP2016. We found that increasing the rupture speed by 20% on the asperities in IM2011 produced ground motions in the 1 – 3 second bandwidth that are in much closer agreement with the GMPE medians and similar to those obtained with GP2016. The potential implications of this modification for other rupture mechanisms and magnitudes are not yet fully understood, and this topic is the subject of ongoing study.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Using Probability of Exceedance to Compare the Resource Risk of Renewable and Gas-Fired Generation

Of the myriad risks surrounding long-term investments in power plants, resource risk is one of the most difficult to mitigate, and is also perhaps the risk that most-clearly distinguishes renewable generation from natural gas-fired generation. For renewable generators like wind and solar projects, resource risk manifests as a quantity risk—i.e., the risk that the quantity of wind and insolation will be less than expected.i For gas-fired generators (i.e., a combined-cycle gas turbine or “CCGT”), resource risk manifests primarily as a price risk—i.e., the risk that natural gas will cost more than expected. Most often, resource risk—and natural gas price risk in particular—falls disproportionately on utility ratepayers, who are typically not well-equipped to manage this risk. As such, it is incumbent upon utilities, regulators, and policymakers to ensure that resource risk is taken into consideration when making or approving resource decisions, or enacting policies that influence the development of the electricity sector more broadly.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Maritime Fuel Cell Generator Project.

Fuel costs and emissions in maritime ports are an opportunity for transportation energy efficiency improvement and emissions reduction efforts. Ocean-going vessels, harbor craft, and cargo handling equipment are still major contributors to air pollution in and around ports. Diesel engine costs continually increase as tighter criteria pollutant regulations come into effect and will continue to do so with expected introduction of carbon emission regulations. Diesel fuel costs will also continue to rise as requirements for cleaner fuels are imposed. Both aspects will increase the cost of diesel-based power generation on the vessel and on shore. Although fuel cells have been used in many successful applications, they have not been technically or commercially validated in the port environment. One opportunity to do so was identified in Honolulu Harbor at the Young Brothers Ltd. wharf. At this facility, barges sail regularly to and from neighbor islands and containerized diesel generators provide power for the reefers while on the dock and on the barge during transport, nearly always at part load. Due to inherent efficiency characteristics of fuel cells and diesel generators, switching to a hydrogen fuel cell power generator was found to have potential emissions and cost savings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Generation and Use of Thermal Energy in the Industrial Sector and Opportunities to Reduce its Carbon Emissions

Changes are occurring throughout the U.S. economy, especially in regard to how energy is generated and used in the electricity, buildings, industrial, and transportation sectors. These changes are being driven by environmental and energy security concerns and by economics. The electric-sector market share of natural gas and variable renewable generation, such as wind and solar photovoltaics (PV), continues to grow. The buildings sector is evolving to meet efficiency standards, the transportation sector is evolving to meet efficiency and renewable fuels standards, and the industrial sector is evolving to reduce emissions. Those changes are driving investment and utilization strategies for generation and other assets. Nuclear and renewable energy sources are important to consider in the energy sector’s evolution because both are considered to be clean and non-carbon-emitting energy sources. The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are jointly investigating potential synergies between technologies exploiting nuclear and renewable energy sources. The two laboratories have held several joint workshops since 2011. Those workshops brought together experts in both areas to identify synergies and potential opportunities to work together. Workshop participants identified nuclear-renewable hybrid energy systems (N-R HESs) as one of the opportunities and recommended investigating whether N-R HESs could both generate dispatchable electricity without carbon emissions and provide clean energy to industrial processes. They also recommended analyzing the potential for N-R HESs to provide dispatchable capacity to a grid with high penetrations of non-dispatchable resources and to investigate whether real inertia provided by thermal power cycles within N-R HESs provides value to the grid. This report is one of a series of reports INL and NREL are producing to investigate the technical and economic aspects of N-R HESs. Previous reports focused on tightly coupled N-R HESs. Previously, INL analyzed the dynamic performance of two hypothetical N-R HESs and NREL analyzed the optimal economic configurations and operation of the same two N-R HESs. The first of those two is a Texas-synthetic gasoline scenario that includes four subsystems: a nuclear reactor, thermal power cycle, wind power plant, and synthetic gasoline production technology. The second hypothetical N-R HES is an Arizona-desalination scenario with four subsystems: a nuclear reactor, thermal power cycle, PV, and a desalination plant. INL analyzed the technical performance of the same two N-R HESs in another report. In another report NREL used the Texas-synthetic gasoline scenario provides the basis; however, the industrial process was removed. Instead, that N-R HES sells heat directly to an industrial customer. Subsystems that convert electricity to heat were also included. Future analyses are planned for other N-R HES options including one where hydrogen is produced within an N-R HES. This report quantifies greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the industrial sector and identifies opportunities for non-GHG-emitting thermal energy sources, such as N-R HESs, to replace the most significant GHG-emitting U.S. industries based on targeted, process-level analysis of industrial heat requirements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Task 2 Report - A GIS-Based Technical Potential Assessment of Domestic Energy Resources for Electricity Generation

The purpose of this report is to support the Lao Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) in assessing the technical potential of domestic energy resources for utility scale electricity generation in the Lao PDR. Specifically, this work provides assessments of technical potential, and associated maps of developable areas, for energy technologies of interest. This report details the methodology, assumptions, and datasets employed in this analysis to provide a transparent, replicable process for future analyses. The methodology and results presented are intended to be a fundamental input to subsequent decision making and energy planning-related analyses. This report is the second output of the Energy Alternatives Study for the Lao PDR (Energy Alternatives Study), a collaboration led by MEM and the United States Agency for International Development under the auspices of the Smart Infrastructure for the Mekong program.1 The Energy Alternatives Study is composed of five successive tasks that collectively support the project’s goals as shown in FIGURE ES-1. This work is focused on Task 2 – Assess technical potential of domestic energy resources for electricity generation . The work was carried out by a team from the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in collaboration with MEM and other Lao power sector stakeholders. This work concentrates on domestic energy resources for utility-scale electricity generation and considers solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, biomass, and coal resources. This work does not consider potentially imported energy resources (e.g., natural gas) or domestic energy resources that are not present in sufficient quantity for utility-scale generation (e.g., geothermal resources). A technical potential assessment of hydropower resources is currently not feasible due to the absence of required data including site-level assessments of multiple characteristics (e.g., geology environment and access) as well as spatial data on estimated non-exploited hydropower resources (Lee et al. 2018). Previous studies estimated total hydropower resource potential to be between 23,000 and 26,000 MW, of which approximately 3,894 MW has been developed (IES and MKE 2016; MEM 2015b, 2011). MEM and Électricité du Laos have gained significant experience in the evaluation and development of hydropower resources and expect to develop close to 10,034 MW of additional capacity by 2025 (MEM 2017).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Urban Dispersion Virtual Workshop: Designing the Next Generation Urban Dispersion Field Programs

The overarching objective of this workshop is to start the process of planning and implementing the “Next Generation of Urban Dispersion Studies”. We have organized this program to bring people interested in this complex problem together. We have representation from different disciplines, different agencies, and different academic institutions. The workshop is organized around several questions: • What are the needs of the emergency response community and how do we design models and experiments to address them? • What model improvements do the user communities need? • How do we design tracer release and sampling to address questions temporal (e.g., diurnal and seasonal variation) and spatial (e.g., land/urban/water gradients) for the broadest applicability? • What are the next-generation measurements needed to improve the data sets? • How do we implement the next generation urban dispersion experiments? The Virtual workshop format is exciting. We view this as an experiment which, if successful, will bring a large group of people together from the community to design the next generation urban experiments. We have many agencies participating: DOE-BER, DHS, FEMA, NNSA, NARAC, DTRA, NYPD, and NIST. The registration list includes over 40 people including participants from well beyond the US including Spain and Canada.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Maritime fuel cell generator project

A first-of-its kind hydrogen fuel cell power generator for marine applications was designed, built, and demonstrated to verify increased energy efficiency at part loads and reduced emissions. The project goals were to demonstrate the use of the generator in the maritime environment, identify areas requiring additional research and development, analyze the business case, and address regulatory and other market barriers. A 100 kW generator with 72 kg of hydrogen storage was designed and built by Hydrogenics with safety and regulatory reviews by the Hydrogen Safety Panel, US Coast Guard, and American Bureau of Shipping. Young Brothers operated the generator for 10 months powering refrigerated containers in Honolulu, HI. The project showed it is possible to increase energy efficiency by up to 30% at part load and reduce emissions to zero through the use of hydrogen fuel cells, and identified paths forward to wider adoption of the technology in this sector.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Estimating the Impact of Residual Value for Electricity Generation Plants on Capital Recovery, Levelized Cost of Energy, and Cost to Consumers

There is often a benefit to continue operating electricity generating assets after their initial contracts expire. This report discusses these benefits and associated risks, using data and illustrative calculations. The key findings are: the realized operational lives of generation technologies before retirement are typically much longer than typical measures of economic lives. The cost impact of a life extension can be comparable to the impact of other factors considered for generation investment decisions, and suggests that R&D and commercial efforts to extend generator life may be valuable. Refurbishment has a useful and economic role, but the option is often neglected during initial investment. Estimating follow-on value at the time of the original investment is complex and often neglected, but may be valuable.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An In-Depth Look at 'Next Generation' CO 2 EOR Technology

This analysis takes a more in-depth look at the 'Next Generation' CO 2 -EOR concept and defines distinct areas of technology development that comprise it. The CO 2 -PROPHET model is used to simulate the application of the four main 'Next Generation' technologies to a database of 1,824 Lower-48 onshore oil reservoirs, first applied singularly and then in combination. The simulations indicate significant synergy when the technology areas are applied jointly. The results show that 'Next Generation' CO 2 EOR can provide positive impacts – 2 MMbpd of domestic oil production for 50 years - but it is not free. 'Next Generation' CO 2 -EOR designs require capital outlays two times higher than current best practices.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Navajo Generating Station & Federal Resource Planning. Volume 2: Update

Several sector-wide economic factors have continued to affect the economics of the Navajo Generating Station (NGS), the largest coal plant in the western United States. Like coal plants nationwide, NGS continues to face economic competition from combined-cycle natural gas (CCNG) generators. Had power generated by NGS been replaced with additional production from the area's lower-cost CCNG units, generation costs might have been $\$$98 million lower from 2015 through 2018. Renewable energy trends appear to be independent of the economic competition between NGS and CCNG plants in the region. Integrating wind and solar resources would likely remain the same with or without NGS. If the Navajo and Hopi tribes aim to encourage renewable energy development on their reservations, they can reasonably anticipate a surge in renewable energy development until 2019 and a lull in new activity shortly after that. Demand for new renewables might be more price-sensitive, federal subsidies could be diminished, and competition among developers might be more rigorous. Access to major transmission could be a competitive advantage for the tribes, in the event that NGS retires.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Distributed Generation Cost-Benefit and Ratemaking Considerations for Idaho

This memo was completed through the Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium (GMLC), a strategic partnership between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the national laboratories to bring together leading experts, technologies, and resources to collaborate on the goal of modernizing the nation’s grid. The GMLC was established as part of the DOE Grid Modernization Initiative to accelerate the development of technology, modeling analysis, tools, and frameworks to help enable grid modernization. Special thanks to DOE project leads, Larry Mansueti and Elaine Ulrich, and the laboratory project lead for this effort, Peter Cappers from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). The Idaho Public Utility Commission (IPUC) Staff requested this technical assistance to improve their understanding of the emerging, complex, and consequential issues around distributed energy resource (DER) rate design to help the staff achieve its goal of making a fair, just, and reasonable rate design recommendation with respect to Order 34147 under Case No. IPC-E-17-13. 2 PNNL-28285 In Case No. IPC-E-17-13, Idaho Power requested authorization from the IPUC to establish new rate schedules for residential and small general service customers with on-site generation. The IPUC’s Order No. 34046 of May 9, 2018 authorized Idaho Power to (IPUC 2018a): Close Schedule 84 and create Schedule 6 for residential on-site generators and Schedule 8 for small general service on-site generators; Acknowledge smart inverter technology; Make proposed revisions to interconnection Schedule 72; Open an Idaho Power-specific docket to “to comprehensively study the costs and benefits of on-site generation on Idaho Power’s system, as well as proper rates and rate design, transitional rates, and related issues of compensation for net excess energy provided as a resource” to Idaho Power; File a study with the IPUC “exploring fixed-cost recovery in basic charges and other rate design options prior to its next general rate case.”

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Predicting Solar Plant Generation with Machine Learning Techniques

Accurately predicting power generation for PV sites is critical for prioritizing relevant operations & maintenance activities, thereby extending the lifetime of a system and improving profit margins. A number of factors influence power generation at PV sites, including local weather, shading and soiling losses, design of modules, DC mismatches, and degradation over time. Other external factors such as curtailment and grid outages can also have a notable impact on power generation. Machine learning techniques can be used to provide more accurate predictions of PV power production by accounting for important weather and climate information neglected by current industry methods. This article will cover the deficiencies of those methods and will show how machine learning can dramatically improve power generation predictions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Electrical Energy Storage Factual Status Document: Resource Document for the Workshop on Basic Research Needs for Next Generation Electrical Energy Storage, March 2017

Electrical energy storage is of growing importance to energy – with increasing use in transportation and on the electrical grid. Batteries are used in all types of vehicles, but have increased in importance with the growth of hybrid and all-electric powered vehicles. For the electrical grid, batteries have a wide diversity of applications from grid stability to storage of electricity generated when the load is low so it is available when there is more demand. Distributed generation of electricity by solar panels and wind generation are also drivers for enhanced energy storage. In both industries, a key enabler will be low-cost batteries with long life, excellent safety, and superior performance. In addition to these two big markets, consumer electronics powered by rechargeable batteries continues to grow into new areas with the advent of wearable technology, internet-of-things, and virtual reality. Today’s energy storage technologies fall far short of the requirements for many of these growing applications. Because of these technology gaps, advances in energy storage are expected to play a critical role for a secure energy future. This document was produced in preparation for a Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Basic Energy Sciences Workshop titled “Basic Research Needs for Next Generation Electrical Energy Storage.” This workshop will identify key basic research directions that could provide revolutionary breakthroughs needed for meeting future requirements for electrical energy storage. This document was intended to provide a high-level assessment of current technologies used for electrical storage—focusing specifically on batteries and electrochemical capacitors—and to define requirements that are foreseen for the future application of these technologies in transportation vehicles, stationary storage applications, and consumer electronics. Thus, it provides a common background for the workshop participants and sets the technological basis for the workshop.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Advanced Cost-Effective Coal-Fired Rotating Detonation Combustor for High Efficiency Power Generation

Coal-based detonation as a means of heat addition in power generation devices is a revolutionary “out of the box” technology concept, wherein it is theoretically possible to achieve an increase in total pressure across the combustor as opposed to a loss of available energy as is the case in conventional combustion systems. Detonation is a revolutionary technology concept of pressure gain combustion that exploits pressure rise from the combustion process to augment high flow momentum and pressures. Recognizing that pressure gain combustion has become a topic of elevated national interest, high energetic modes (exergy) pressure gain combustion (PGC) systems are required. Pressure gain combustion is a key enabling technology for maintaining technological superiority in the development of advanced power generation systems. Pressure gain combustion is an innovative scheme of turbulent combustion that considerably increases thermodynamic cycle efficiencies (~10-20%). This project extends the State-of-the-Art by providing the first direct experimental and computational data of operability dynamics and performance characterization data and create the first validated Coal-Fired RDC investigations. Coal-based RDC is an innovative revolutionary technology that would result in high efficiency power generation and reduced of harmful emissions. Also, the fundamental and open source nature of the project will benefit a broader scientific and industry audience who will be able to utilize the outcomes of this project for advancing the coal-fired RDC power generation development.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Demonstration of NREL Modeling Capability to Design the Next Generation of Floating Offshore Wind Turbines with Stiesdal and Magellan Wind (Cooperative Research and Development Final Report)

This Technology Commercialization Fund (TCF) CRADA involved demonstration of NREL modeling capability using OpenFAST (formerly known as FAST) to design the next generation of floating offshore wind turbines (FOTW) with Stiesdal’s TetraSpar design. The objective of the project was to enable the design and optimization of next generation FOWT that show promise to make FOWT cost-competitive with other energy technologies by upgrading, verifying, and validating improvements to OpenFAST. This objective was achieved by (1) upgrading OpenFAST to compute floating substructure flexibility and member-level loads, which is critical to enable the design of floating substructures—especially newer designs that are streamlined, flexible, and cost-effective; (2) verifying the new OpenFAST capabilities through model-to-model comparisons and validating the capabilities through comparisons to empirical data generated with wave-tank testing, using TetraSpar data provided by Stiesdal; and (3) making available the upgraded OpenFAST tool to the wind energy community to enable next-generation floating wind designs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗