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Progress in multirate digital control system design

A new methodology for multirate sampled-data control design based on a new generalized control law structure, two new parameter-optimization-based control law synthesis methods, and a new singular-value-based robustness analysis method are described. The control law structure can represent multirate sampled-data control laws of arbitrary structure and dynamic order, with arbitrarily prescribed sampling rates for all sensors and update rates for all processor states and actuators. The two control law synthesis methods employ numerical optimization to determine values for the control law parameters. The robustness analysis method is based on the multivariable Nyquist criterion applied to the loop transfer function for the sampling period equal to the period of repetition of the system's complete sampling/update schedule. The complete methodology is demonstrated by application to the design of a combination yaw damper and modal suppression system for a commercial aircraft.

Berg, Martin C.↗

Determination of washout performance of various monochrome displays under simulated flight ambient and solar lighting conditions

The aircraft cockpit ambient lighting simulation system (ACALSS) has been developed to study display readability and associated pilot/vehicle performance effects in a part-task simulator cockpit. In the study reported here, the ACALSS was used to determine the illumination levels at which subjects lose the ability to maintain aircraft states when using three display technologies as display media for primary flight displays: a standard monochrome EL (electroluminescent) flat-panel, a laboratory-class monochrome CRT, and an enhanced-brightness EL flat-panel. The multivariate statistical technique of modified profile analysis was used to test for performance differences between display devices as functions of illumination levels. The standard monochrome EL flat-panel display began to washout after the 2500 foot-candle level of illumination. The monochrome CRT began to washout after the 5500 foot-candle level of illumination. No performance decrements by increased illumination up to the 12,000 foot-candle level were found for the enhanced-brightness EL flat-panel display. What was not anticipated was that half the subjects would subjectively prefer the CRT over the enhanced-brightness EL, even though their performance errors would have indicated the opposite.

Batson, Vernon M.↗

Regional climates in the GISS general circulation model: Surface air temperature

One of the more viable research techniques into global climate change for the purpose of understanding the consequent environmental impacts is based on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, GCMs are currently unable to reliably predict the regional climate change resulting from global warming, and it is at the regional scale that predictions are required for understanding human and environmental responses. Regional climates in the extratropics are in large part governed by the synoptic-scale circulation and the feasibility of using this interscale relationship is explored to provide a way of moving to grid cell and sub-grid cell scales in the model. The relationships between the daily circulation systems and surface air temperature for points across the continental United States are first developed in a quantitative form using a multivariate index based on principal components analysis (PCA) of the surface circulation. These relationships are then validated by predicting daily temperature using observed circulation and comparing the predicted values with the observed temperatures. The relationships predict surface temperature accurately over the major portion of the country in winter, and for half the country in summer. These relationships are then applied to the surface synoptic circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM control run, and a set of surface grid cell temperatures are generated. These temperatures, based on the larger-scale validated circulation, may now be used with greater confidence at the regional scale. The generated temperatures are compared to those of the model and show that the model has regional errors of up to 10 C in individual grid cells.

Hewitson, Bruce↗

An Assessment of the Regional Distribution of the Oxygen-Isotope Ratio in Northeastern Canada

A compilation of mean values of the oxygen-isotope ratio relative to standard mean ocean Water for 22 sites representative of conditions in north-eastern Canada is complemented with data on mean annual surface temperature, latitude, surface elevation, and mean annual shortest distance to open ocean denoted by the 10% sea-ice concentration boundary. Stepwise regression analysis is used to develop a multivariate model suitable to infer the distribution of 6 1"0 in an area of complex topography and possibly mixed source of advected water vapor. The best model is produced by a run in the backward mode at the 95% confidence level in which only temperature, latitude and distance to the open ocean remain in the model (the correlation coefficient is 0.915, the adjusted coefficient of determination is 0.809, the root mean square residual is 1.62). This model is similar to the best 6180 predictive model derived elsewhere for Greenland, suggesting a common principal source of advected moisture.

Giovinetto, Mario B.↗

imageMCR

imageMCR is a user friendly software package that consists of a variety inputs to preprocess and analyze the hyperspectral image data using multivariate algorithms such as Multivariate Curve Resolution (MCR), Principle Component Analysis (PCA), Classical Least Squares (CLS) and Parallel Factor Analysis (PARAFAC). MCR provides a relative quantitative analysis of the hyperspectral image data without the need for standards, and it discovers all the emitting species (spectral pure components) present in an image, even those in which there is no a priori information. Once the spectral components are discovered, these spectral components can be used for future MCR analyses or used with CLS algorithms to quickly extract concentration image maps for each component within spectral image data sets.

Source record↗

Evaluation of Health Economics in Radiation Oncology: A Systematic Review

Purpose: Despite the rising costs in radiation oncology, the impact of health economics research on radiation therapy practice analysis patterns is unclear. We performed a systematic review of cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) and cost-utility analyses (CUAs) to identify trends in reporting quality in the radiation oncology literature over time. Methods and Materials: A systematic review of radiation oncology economic evaluations up to 2014 was performed, using MEDLINE and EMBASE databases. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards guideline informed data abstraction variables including study demographics, economic parameters, and methodological details. Tufts Medical Center CEA registry quality scores provided a basis for qualitative assessment of included studies. Studies were stratified by 3 time periods (1995-2004, 2005-2009, and 2010-2014). The Cochran-Armitage trend test and linear trend test were used to identify trends over time. Results: In total, 102 articles were selected for final review. Most studies were in the context of a model (61%) or clinical trial (28%). Many studies lacked a conflict of interest (COI) statement (67%), a sponsorship statement (48%), a reported study time horizon (35%), and the use of discounting (29%). There was a significant increase over time in the reporting of a COI statement (P<.001), health care payer perspective (P=.019), sensitivity analyses using multivariate (P=.043) or probabilistic methods (P=.011), incremental cost-effectiveness threshold (P<.001), secondary source utility weights (P=.010), and cost effectiveness acceptability curves (P=.049). There was a trend toward improvement in Tuft scores over time (P=.065). Conclusions: Recent reports demonstrate improved reporting rates in economic evaluations; however, there remains significant room for improvement as reporting rates are still suboptimal. As fiscal pressures rise, we will rely on economic assessments to guide our practice decisions and policies. We recommend improved adherence to published guidelines and further research to determine the clinical implications of our findings.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Uncertainty Analysis of Inertial Model Attitude Sensor Calibration and Application with a Recommended New Calibration Method

Statistical tools, previously developed for nonlinear least-squares estimation of multivariate sensor calibration parameters and the associated calibration uncertainty analysis, have been applied to single- and multiple-axis inertial model attitude sensors used in wind tunnel testing to measure angle of attack and roll angle. The analysis provides confidence and prediction intervals of calibrated sensor measurement uncertainty as functions of applied input pitch and roll angles. A comparative performance study of various experimental designs for inertial sensor calibration is presented along with corroborating experimental data. The importance of replicated calibrations over extended time periods has been emphasized; replication provides independent estimates of calibration precision and bias uncertainties, statistical tests for calibration or modeling bias uncertainty, and statistical tests for sensor parameter drift over time. A set of recommendations for a new standardized model attitude sensor calibration method and usage procedures is included. The statistical information provided by these procedures is necessary for the uncertainty analysis of aerospace test results now required by users of industrial wind tunnel test facilities.

Tripp, John S.↗

Creation of a Prognostic Index for Spine Metastasis to Stratify Survival in Patients Treated With Spinal Stereotactic Radiosurgery: Secondary Analysis of Mature Prospective Trials

Purpose: There exists uncertainty in the prognosis of patients following spinal metastasis treatment. We sought to create a scoring system that stratifies patients based on overall survival. Methods and Materials: Patients enrolled in 2 prospective trials investigating stereotactic spine radiation surgery (SSRS) for spinal metastasis with ≥3-year follow-up were analyzed. A multivariate Cox regression model was used to create a survival model. Pretreatment variables included were race, sex, age, performance status, tumor histology, extent of vertebrae involvement, previous therapy at the SSRS site, disease burden, and timing of diagnosis and metastasis. Four survival groups were generated based on the model-derived survival score. Results: Median follow-up in the 206 patients included in this analysis was 70 months (range: 37-133 months). Seven variables were selected: female sex (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.7, P=.02), Karnofsky performance score (HR = 0.8 per 10-point increase above 60, P=.007), previous surgery at the SSRS site (HR = 0.7, P=.02), previous radiation at the SSRS site (HR = 1.8, P=.001), the SSRS site as the only site of metastatic disease (HR = 0.5, P=.01), number of organ systems involved outside of bone (HR = 1.4 per involved system, P<.001), and >5 year interval from initial diagnosis to detection of spine metastasis (HR = 0.5, P<.001). The median survival among all patients was 25.5 months and was significantly different among survival groups (in group 1 [excellent prognosis], median survival was not reached; group 2 reached 32.4 months; group 3 reached 22.2 months; and group 4 [poor prognosis] reached 9.1 months; P<.001). Pretreatment symptom burden was significantly higher in the patient group with poor survival than in the group with excellent survival (all metrics, P<.05). Conclusions: We developed the prognostic index for spinal metastases (PRISM) model, a new model that identified patient subgroups with poor and excellent prognoses.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Metabolomics of Oxidative Stress in Recent Studies of Endogenous and Exogenously Administered Intermediate Metabolites

Aerobic metabolism occurs in a background of oxygen radicals and reactive oxygen species (ROS) that originate from the incomplete reduction of molecular oxygen in electron transfer reactions. The essential role of aerobic metabolism, the generation and consumption of ATP and other high energy phosphates, sustains a balance of approximately 3000 essential human metabolites that serve not only as nutrients, but also as antioxidants, neurotransmitters, osmolytes, and participants in ligand-based and other cellular signaling. In hypoxia, ischemia, and oxidative stress, where pathological circumstances cause oxygen radicals to form at a rate greater than is possible for their consumption, changes in the composition of metabolite ensembles, or metabolomes, can be associated with physiological changes. Metabolomics and metabonomics are a scientific disciplines that focuse on quantifying dynamic metabolome responses, using multivariate analytical approaches derived from methods within genomics, a discipline that consolidated innovative analysis techniques for situations where the number of biomarkers (metabolites in our case) greatly exceeds the number of subjects. This review focuses on the behavior of cytosolic, mitochondrial, and redox metabolites in ameliorating or exacerbating oxidative stress. After reviewing work regarding a small number of metabolites—pyruvate, ethyl pyruvate, and fructose-1,6-bisphosphate—whose exogenous administration was found to ameliorate oxidative stress, a subsequent section reviews basic multivariate statistical methods common in metabolomics research, and their application in human and preclinical studies emphasizing oxidative stress. Particular attention is paid to new NMR spectroscopy methods in metabolomics and metabonomics. Because complex relationships connect oxidative stress to so many physiological processes, studies from different disciplines were reviewed. All, however, shared the common goal of ultimately developing “omics”-based, diagnostic tests to help influence therapies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Artificial Neural Network Representation of Dynamic Criticality Excursion Experiment Data

This paper outlines time dependent considerations in applying the artificial neural network (ANN) paradigm to dynamic nuclear criticality excursion experiment data. The ANN amongst a variety of uses, can apply to function fitting of multiple input-multiple output data sets, pattern recognition, cluster analysis, and time series prediction. The ANN is a component of Machine Learning (ML) data analysis. The practical application of ML to criticality safety has been funded through the Y-12 Plant Directed Research and Demonstration (PDRD) program to support criticality safety and emergency planning efforts. The initial effort considered function fitting of criticality excursion data. Recent efforts successfully extended the ANN to criticality safety code validation. The initial ANN work applied to criticality excursions centered around multivariate function fitting of static (tabular) data taken from the French Consequences Radiologiques d'un Accident de Criticite (CRAC) and SILENE reactor campaigns. The former report (LeCorche) summarized important tabular data for the first 44 CRAC experiments. The initial ANN was trained to specific time-independent inputs, then applied to predict peak fission rate and total fissions for a wide variety of fissile solutions process conditions. This work extends that effort to apply the ANN paradigm to dynamic prediction of time-dependent criticality excursion experiment data. A dynamic criticality excursion in fissile solution represents a complex multiphysics phenomenon. Factors include among other things, coupled neutronic, multiphase fluid flow, temperature, pressure, acoustic shock, boiling heat transfer, reactivity feedback, and radiolytic gas considerations. There have been many efforts to model (over time) as coupled ordinary and (space) as partial differential equations (ODE, PDE). The ANN representation noted here does not rely on solving explicit ODE or PDEs. Rather the intent is to demonstrate that as a time series, the criticality excursion can be predicted by training specific ANN architectures to experimental input and output time series exclusively. The rationale for extending this work to the time-dependent regime is important in developing a 'criticality excursion emulator' solely on the basis of learning characteristics from experiment dynamic data. An emulator is different than a computer code simulator driven by the solution of ODEs and PDEs given select 'tuning parameters' that match outputs to experiments. A criticality excursion emulator, derived exclusively from an ANN or ML, could predict most likely excursion characteristics, trained from historic dynamic experiment data, presented with input values within the range of those experiments. The work noted shows that generic time-series ANN architectures can be satisfactorily applied to the prediction of dynamic, extremely chaotic criticality excursion power given an initial time dependent input series. In reality, an excursion emulator could be driven by user-supplied initial (t=0), time independent or constant values to generate time dependent outputs. Thus ongoing work includes developing a custom ANN such that initial dynamic conditions would be predicted. Those results then serve as inputs to a customized ANN architecture currently in development. (author)

42 ENGINEERING↗

Non-Gaussianity in the weak lensing correlation function likelihood – implications for cosmological parameter biases

ABSTRACT We study the significance of non-Gaussianity in the likelihood of weak lensing shear two-point correlation functions, detecting significantly non-zero skewness and kurtosis in 1D marginal distributions of shear two-point correlation functions in simulated weak lensing data. We examine the implications in the context of future surveys, in particular LSST, with derivations of how the non-Gaussianity scales with survey area. We show that there is no significant bias in 1D posteriors of Ωm and σ8 due to the non-Gaussian likelihood distributions of shear correlations functions using the mock data (100 deg2). We also present a systematic approach to constructing approximate multivariate likelihoods with 1D parametric functions by assuming independence or more flexible non-parametric multivariate methods after decorrelating the data points using principal component analysis (PCA). While the use of PCA does not modify the non-Gaussianity of the multivariate likelihood, we find empirically that the 1D marginal sampling distributions of the PCA components exhibit less skewness and kurtosis than the original shear correlation functions. Modelling the likelihood with marginal parametric functions based on the assumption of independence between PCA components thus gives a lower limit for the biases. We further demonstrate that the difference in cosmological parameter constraints between the multivariate Gaussian likelihood model and more complex non-Gaussian likelihood models would be even smaller for an LSST-like survey. In addition, the PCA approach automatically serves as a data compression method, enabling the retention of the majority of the cosmological information while reducing the dimensionality of the data vector by a factor of ∼5.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Predictive Factors and Management of Rectal Bleeding Side Effects Following Prostate Cancer Brachytherapy

Purpose: To report on the incidence, nature, and management of rectal toxicities following individual or combination brachytherapy following treatment for prostate cancer over a 17-year period. We also report the patient and treatment factors predisposing to acute ≥grade 2 proctitis. Methods and Materials: A total of 2752 patients were treated for prostate cancer between October 1990 and April 2007 with either low-dose-rate brachytherapy alone or in combination with androgen depletion therapy (ADT) or external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) and were followed for a median of 5.86 years (minimum 1.0 years; maximum 19.19 years). We investigated the 10-year incidence, nature, and treatment of acute and chronic rectal toxicities following BT. Using univariate, and multivariate analyses, we determined the treatment and comorbidity factors predisposing to rectal toxicities. We also outline the most common and effective management for these toxicities. Results: Actuarial risk of ≥grade 2 rectal bleeding was 6.4%, though notably only 0.9% of all patients required medical intervention to manage this toxicity. The majority of rectal bleeding episodes (72%) occurred within the first 3 years following placement of BT seeds. Of the 27 patients requiring management for their rectal bleeding, 18 underwent formalin treatment and nine underwent cauterization. Post-hoc univariate statistical analysis revealed that coronary artery disease (CAD), biologically effective dose, rectal volume receiving 100% of the prescription dose (RV100), and treatment modality predict the likelihood of grade ≥2 rectal bleeding. Only CAD, treatment type, and RV100 fit a Cox regression multivariate model. Conclusions: Low-dose-rate prostate brachytherapy is very well tolerated and rectal bleeding toxicities are either self-resolving or effectively managed by medical intervention. Treatment planning incorporating adjuvant ADT while minimizing RV100 has yielded the best toxicity-free survival following BT.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

The controlling role of atmosphere in dawsonite versus gibbsite precipitation from tetrahedral aluminate species

In highly alkaline solution, aluminum speciates as the tetrahedrally coordinated aluminate monomer, Al(OH)4- and/or dimer Al2O(OH)62-, yet precipitates as octahedrally coordinated gibbsite (Al(OH)3). This tetrahedral to octahedral transformation governs Al precipitation, which is crucial to worldwide Al production, and to the processing of caustic high-level radioactive wastes. Despite its significance, the transformation pathway remains unknown. Here we explore the roles of atmospheric water and carbon dioxide in mediating the transformation of the tetrahedrally coordinated potassium aluminate dimer salt (K2Al2O(OH)6) to gibbsite versus potassium dawsonite (KAl(CO3)(OH)2). A combination of in-situ attenuated total reflection infrared spectroscopy, ex-situ micro X-ray diffraction, and multivariate curve resolution-alternating least squares chemometrics analysis reveals that humidity plays a key role in the transformation by limiting the amount of alkalinity neutralization by dissolved CO2. Lower humidity favors higher alkalinity and incorporation of carbonate species in the final Al product to form KAl(CO3)(OH)2. Higher humidity enables more acid generation that destabilizes dawsonite and favors gibbsite as the solubility limiting phase. Because the transformation was restricted to occur in thin water films, the results suggest that transition from tetra- to octahedrally coordinated Al does not have to occur in bulk solution, as has often been hypothesized, but may instead appear on the source mineral surface.

Dembowski, Mateusz↗

Integrated analysis of particle interactions at hadron colliders Report of research activities in 2010-2015

The report summarizes research activities of the project ”Integrated analysis of particle interactions” at Southern Methodist University, funded by 2010 DOE Early Career Research Award DE-SC0003870. The goal of the project is to provide state-of-the-art predictions in quantum chromodynamics in order to achieve objectives of the LHC program for studies of electroweak symmetry breaking and new physics searches. We published 19 journal papers focusing on in-depth studies of proton structure and integration of advanced calculations from different areas of particle phenomenology: multi-loop calculations, accurate long-distance hadronic functions, and precise numerical programs. Methods for factorization of QCD cross sections were advanced in order to develop new generations of CTEQ parton distribution functions (PDFs), CT10 and CT14. These distributions provide the core theoretical input for multi-loop perturbative calculations by LHC experimental collaborations. A novel ”PDF meta-analysis” technique was invented to streamline applications of PDFs in numerous LHC simulations and to combine PDFs from various groups using multivariate stochastic sampling of PDF parameters. The meta-analysis will help to bring the LHC perturbative calculations to the new level of accuracy, while reducing computational efforts. The work on parton distributions was complemented by development of advanced perturbative techniques to predict observables dependent on several momentum scales, including production of massive quarks and transverse momentum resummation at the next-to-next-to-leading order in QCD.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Sensitivity analysis of automatic flight control systems using singular value concepts

A sensitivity analysis is presented that can be used to judge the impact of vehicle dynamic model variations on the relative stability of multivariable continuous closed-loop control systems. The sensitivity analysis uses and extends the singular-value concept by developing expressions for the gradients of the singular value with respect to variations in the vehicle dynamic model and the controller design. Combined with a priori estimates of the accuracy of the model, the gradients are used to identify the elements in the vehicle dynamic model and controller that could severely impact the system's relative stability. The technique is demonstrated for a yaw/roll damper stability augmentation designed for a business jet.

Herrera-Vaillard, A.↗

Self-Organizing-Map Program for Analyzing Multivariate Data

SOM_VIS is a computer program for analysis and display of multidimensional sets of Earth-image data typified by the data acquired by the Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer [MISR (a spaceborne instrument)]. In SOM_VIS, an enhanced self-organizing-map (SOM) algorithm is first used to project a multidimensional set of data into a nonuniform three-dimensional lattice structure. The lattice structure is mapped to a color space to obtain a color map for an image. The Voronoi cell-refinement algorithm is used to map the SOM lattice structure to various levels of color resolution. The final result is a false-color image in which similar colors represent similar characteristics across all its data dimensions. SOM_VIS provides a control panel for selection of a subset of suitably preprocessed MISR radiance data, and a control panel for choosing parameters to run SOM training. SOM_VIS also includes a component for displaying the false-color SOM image, a color map for the trained SOM lattice, a plot showing an original input vector in 36 dimensions of a selected pixel from the SOM image, the SOM vector that represents the input vector, and the Euclidean distance between the two vectors.

Li, P. Peggy↗

Dose Response for Radiation Cataractogenesis: A Meta-Regression of Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation Regimens

Purpose/Objective(s): To perform a meta-regression on published data and to model the 5-year probability of cataract development after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) with and without total body irradiation (TBI). Methods and Materials: Eligible studies reporting cataract incidence after HSCT with TBI were identified by a PubMed search. Seventeen publications provided complete information on radiation dose schedule, fractionation, dose rate, and actuarial cataract incidence. Chemotherapy-only regimens were included as zero radiation dose regimens. Multivariate meta-regression with a weighted generalized linear model was used to model the 5-year cataract incidence and contributory factors. Results: Data from 1386 patients in 21 series were included for analysis. TBI was administered to a total dose of 0 to 15.75 Gy with single or fractionated schedules with a dose rate of 0.04 to 0.16 Gy/min. Factors significantly associated with 5-year cataract incidence were dose, dose times dose per fraction (D•dpf), pediatric versus adult status, and the absence of an ophthalmologist as an author. Dose rate, graft versus host disease, steroid use, hyperfractionation, and number of fractions were not significant. Five-fold internal cross-validation showed a model validity of 83% ± 8%. Regression diagnostics showed no evidence of lack-of-fit and no patterns in the studentized residuals. The α/β ratio from the linear quadratic model, estimated as the ratio of the coefficients for dose and D•dpf, was 0.76 Gy (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.05-1.55). The odds ratio for pediatric patients was 2.8 (95% CI, 1.7-4.6) relative to adults. Conclusions: Dose, D•dpf, pediatric status, and regimented follow-up care by an ophthalmologist were predictive of 5-year cataract incidence after HSCT. The low α/β ratio indicates the importance of fractionation in reducing cataracts. Dose rate effects have been observed in single institution studies but not in the combined data analyzed here. Although data were limited to articles with 5-year actuarial estimates, the development of radiation-induced cataracts extends beyond this time.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗