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DOE OSTI2020

PopSyCLE: A New Population Synthesis Code for Compact Object Microlensing Events

We present a new Milky Way microlensing simulation code, dubbed PopSyCLE (Population Synthesis for Compact object Lensing Events). PopSyCLE is the first resolved microlensing simulation to include a compact object distribution derived from numerical supernovae explosion models and both astrometric and photometric microlensing effects. We demonstrate the capabilities of PopSyCLE by investigating the optimal way to find black holes (BHs) with microlensing. Candidate BHs have typically been selected from wide-field photometric microlensing surveys, such as OGLE, by selecting events with long Einstein crossing times (tE > 120 days). These events can be selected at closest approach and monitored astrometrically in order to constrain the mass of each lens; PopSyCLE predicts a BH detection rate of ~40% for such a program. We find that the detection rate can be enhanced to ~ 85% by selecting events with both tE > 120 days and a microlensing parallax of πE < 0.08. Unfortunately, such a selection criterion cannot be applied during the event as πE requires both pre- and post-peak photometry. However, historical microlensing events from photometric surveys can be revisited using this new selection criteria in order to statistically constrain the abundance of BHs in the Milky Way. The future WFIRST microlensing survey provides both precise photometry and astrometry and will yield individual masses of O(100 - 1000) black holes, which is at least an order of magnitude more than is possible with individual candidate follow-up with current facilities. The resulting sample of BH masses from WFIRST will begin to constrain the shape of the black hole present-day mass function, BH multiplicity, and BH kick velocity distributions

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Planetary Spin and Obliquity from Mergers

In planetary systems with sufficiently small inter-planet spacing, close encounters can lead to planetary collisions/mergers or ejections. Here, we study the spin property of the merger products of two giant planets in a statistical manner using numerical simulations and analytical modeling. Planetary collisions lead to rapidly rotating objects and a broad range of obliquities. We find that, under typical conditions for two-planet scatterings, the distributions of spin magnitude S and obliquity ${\theta }_{\mathrm{SL}}$ of the merger products have simple analytical forms: f S ∝ S and ${f}_{\cos {\theta }_{\mathrm{SL}}}\propto {(1-{\cos }^{2}{\theta }_{\mathrm{SL}})}^{-1/2}$. Through parameter studies, we determine the regime of validity for the analytical distributions of spin and obliquity. Since planetary mergers are a major outcome of planet–planet scatterings, observational search for the spin/obliquity signatures of exoplanets would provide important constraints on the dynamical history of planetary systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Use of polarimetric radar measurements to constrain simulated convective cell evolution: a pilot study with Lagrangian tracking

Abstract. To probe the potential value of a radar-driven field campaign to constrain simulation of isolated convection subject to a strong aerosol perturbation, convective cells observed by the operational KHGX weather radar in the vicinity of Houston, Texas, are examined individually and statistically. Cells observed in a single case study of onshore flow conditions during July 2013 are first examined and compared with cells in a regional model simulation. Observed and simulated cells are objectively identified and tracked from observed or calculated positive specific differential phase ( K DP ) above the melting level, which is related to the presence of supercooled liquid water. Several observed and simulated cells are subjectively selected for further examination. Below the melting level, we compare sequential cross sections of retrieved and simulated raindrop size distribution parameters. Above the melting level, we examine time series of K DP and radar differential reflectivity ( Z DR ) statistics from observations and calculated from simulated supercooled rain properties, alongside simulated vertical wind and supercooled rain mixing ratio statistics. Results indicate that the operational weather radar measurements offer multiple constraints on the properties of simulated convective cells, with substantial value added from derived K DP and retrieved rain properties. The value of collocated three-dimensional lightning mapping array measurements, which are relatively rare in the continental US, supports the choice of Houston as a suitable location for future field studies to improve the simulation and understanding of convective updraft physics. However, rapid evolution of cells between routine volume scans motivates consideration of adaptive scan strategies or radar imaging technologies to amend operational weather radar capabilities. A 3-year climatology of isolated cell tracks, prepared using a more efficient algorithm, yields additional relevant information. Isolated cells are found within the KHGX domain on roughly 40 % of days year-round, with greatest concentration in the northwest quadrant, but roughly 5-fold more cells occur during June through September. During this enhanced occurrence period, the cells initiate following a strong diurnal cycle that peaks in the early afternoon, typically follow a south-to-north flow, and dissipate within 1 h, consistent with the case study examples. Statistics indicate that ~  150 isolated cells initiate and dissipate within 70 km of the KHGX radar during the enhanced occurrence period annually, and roughly 10 times as many within 200 km, suitable for multi-instrument Lagrangian observation strategies. In addition to ancillary meteorological and aerosol measurements, robust vertical wind speed retrievals would add substantial value to a radar-driven field campaign.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Special Analysis for the Disposal of the West Valley Demonstration Project Extraction Cell 2 Low Density Waste Stream at the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

This special analysis (SA) evaluates whether the West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Extraction Cell 2 Low Density waste stream is suitable for disposal by shallow land burial (SLB) at the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The WVDP Low Density waste stream consists of debris contaminated during the decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) of Extraction Cell 2 at the WVDP (WVDP 2015). The WVDP Low Density waste stream required an SA because the radium-226 (226Ra) activity concentration exceeds the NNSS Waste Acceptance Criteria (WAC) Action Level (U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office [NNSA/NFO] 2013). The effect of adding the WVDP Low Density waste stream inventory to the inventory of waste disposed through the end of FY 2014 was evaluated with the A5 RWMS v 4.119 PA model. The results indicate that all performance objectives can be met with disposal of the WVDP Low Density in a SLB trench. Addition of the WVDP Low Density inventory slightly increases the 222Rn flux density, but the maximum mean and 95th percentile flux density remain less than the performance objective throughout the compliance period. The WVDP Low Density waste stream had no significant effect on the maximum mean and 95th percentile for all other PA results. The WVDP Low Density waste stream, therefore, is suitable for disposal by SLB at the Area 5 RWMS.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2016

Resonant Frequency Control For the PIP-II Injector Test RFQ: Control Framework and Initial Results

For the PIP-II Injector Test (PI-Test) at Fermilab, a four-vane radio frequency quadrupole (RFQ) is designed to accelerate a 30-keV, 1-mA to 10-mA, H- beam to 2.1 MeV under both pulsed and continuous wave (CW) RF operation. The available headroom of the RF amplifiers limits the maximum allowable detuning to 3 kHz, and the detuning is controlled entirely via thermal regulation. Fine control over the detuning, minimal manual intervention, and fast trip recovery is desired. In addition, having active control over both the walls and vanes provides a wider tuning range. For this, we intend to use model predictive control (MPC). To facilitate these objectives, we developed a dedicated control framework that handles higher-level system decisions as well as executes control calculations. It is written in Python in a modular fashion for easy adjustments, readability, and portability. Here we describe the framework and present the first control results for the PI-Test RFQ under pulsed and CW operation.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Computationally-Aided Design of a Small-Scale Radioactive Waste Glass Melter

To provide mission support to the Hanford Waste Immobilization and Treatment Plant for the vitrification of legacy nuclear tank waste, a reduced-scale vitrification pilot system is being designed to process simulated and actual radioactive tank wastes. The tank waste will be separated into high-level waste (HLW) and low-activity waste (LAW) fractions, where the majority by mass (~90%) is LAW and by activity (>95%) is HLW. The first tank waste to be processed at the WTP will be LAW. Since Hanford tank waste and the resultant melter feed compositions are known to vary widely, pilot-scale operations are essential to identify potential problems, provide needed data, confirm assumptions, and determine impacts to full-scale melters and off-gas systems from these different feeds. In addition, the reduced-scale melter system must be capable of quickly providing results to operations without the typically high costs of radioactive operations and provide an engineering platform in close proximity to local operations staff. The objective is to produce similar process conditions to those encountered in the full-scale LAW melters and minimize the volume of radioactive waste necessary for the evaluations. To this end, melter design features are being explored to increase production without significantly increasing surface area, melter glass volumes or compromising data quality. In support of these objectives, a set of computational fluid dynamic models have been developed to provide insight into the flow patterns within these small melters and evaluate design features to increase production without significantly increasing glass inventory. Computed velocities were evaluated at the interface between the cold cap and the molten glass pool and within the bulk glass pool. A method was developed to correlate results to an estimated melt rate and down-select design features that produce the highest gains.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Computationally-Aided Design of a Small-Scale Radioactive Waste Glass Melter

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

Initial Developments in Modeling Graphite Behavior

Graphite is used in High Temperature Reactor designs as a moderator, reflector and core material responsible for protecting the fuel and maintaining structural stability. From a safety perspective, it is imperative to be able to predict how graphite will behave under reactor operating conditions which may compromise the core’s structural integrity or fuel’s safety performance. The following report summarizes recent modeling work undertaken at Idaho National Laboratory which focuses on graphite degradation behavior. One phenomenon which is explored in this report and can cause significant degradation to graphite properties is oxidation. Oxidation behavior in graphite is highly temperature dependent. At low temperatures, oxygen can fully penetrate a component and cause a homogeneous damage profile. At high temperatures, only the graphite near the surface of a component is affected. Understanding and modeling this temperature dependence is essential to predicting graphite behavior. In this report, three graphite models are discussed. The first model is used to investigate strength loss after low temperature oxidation. It does this by generating an approximate graphite microstructure then determining the required load to cause crack propagation. It has been shown that the model reproduces the quasi brittle stress versus strain relationship observed in graphite. Strength loss results from the model are shown to match experimental values. The second model investigates strength loss under high temperature oxidation conditions. This model is more applicable to full scale graphite components where the oxidation damage is often inhomogeneous throughout a component. The third model computes stresses in graphite under reactor conditions. Specifically, the model incorporates the effect of creep, irradiation dose, thermal strains, and oxidation in order to predict internal stresses in a component. All of these models are implemented in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), an open source, parallel finite element framework.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Computed axial lithography optimization system

A system for determining a light intensity field for use in manufacturing a 3D object from a volume of material. The system receives a 3D specification of a 3D geometry for the 3D object that specifies voxels within the volume that contain material that is to be part of the 3D object. The system employs a cost function for effectiveness of a light intensity field in manufacturing the 3D object. The cost function may be an adjoint of an Attenuated Radon Transform that models an energy dose that each voxel would receive during manufacture of the 3D object using the light intensity field. The system applies an optimization technique that employs the cost function to generate a measure of the effectiveness of possible light intensity fields and outputs an indication of a light intensity field that will be effective in manufacturing the 3D object.

Shusteff, Maxim↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear Data Sensitivity/Uncertainty Studies of Tantalum-Reflected Systems

Tantalum (Ta) is a refractory metal with high melting point and high corrosion resistance. This makes it useful as a mold material for plutonium casting operations. Unfortunately, there are few criticality benchmarks with high nuclear data sensitivities. Given that, it is desirable to design new experiments to provide additional validation data for nuclear criticality safety, which is the objective of the Thales project. Multiple application models were used to represent process conditions (either normal conditions or credible upset conditions) both at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and Savannah River Site (SRS). A total of 40 application models were obtained. Given this, it was useful to down-select the number of needed application models. This work documents the down-selection based on several nuclear data sensitivity/uncertainty metrics. In addition to showing the result of the specific down-selection used for the Thales project, this work discusses potential ways to represent a large number of application models with a smaller number of proposed experiment designs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Geothermal Reservoir Simulation Analysis in Support of Electricity Co-Production Feasibility Study at the Blackburn Oil Field, Nevada: Preprint

Geothermal electricity co-production is a viable option for oil reservoirs producing large water cuts with elevated wellhead-observed temperatures. Repurposing existing oil wells significantly reduces initial investment costs historically associated with geothermal resource utilization. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), partnering with Gradient Geothermal, Inc. (formerly known as Transitional Energy) and Grant Canyon Oil and Gas, has been tasked to evaluate the feasibility of geothermal electricity co-production at the Blackburn Oil Field with Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) generators. The Devonian steady-state reservoir has historically been producing high water cuts of 240 degrees F (115.6 degrees C) observed at the wellhead without documented pressure drawdown or thermal breakthrough. An estimated initial reservoir temperature of approx. 260degreesF (126.7 degrees C) has been observed in the field and history-matched in a wellbore production analysis and reservoir simulation. Our objective was to develop a conceptual geological model of the subsurface, simulate a natural-state reservoir, model production scenarios, and complete a technical feasibility analysis to accomplish this task. Through extensive modeling and the use of available proprietary and public data, it was possible simulate three scenarios that indicated minimal thermal decline over the duration of a simulated ten-year production and re-injection scheme.

Blackburn Nevada↗

DOE OSTI2025

Geothermal Reservoir Simulation Analysis in Support of Electricity Co-Production Feasibility Study at the Blackburn Oil Field, Nevada

Geothermal electricity co-production is a viable option for oil reservoirs producing large water cuts with elevated wellhead temperatures. Repurposing existing oil wells significantly reduces initial investment costs historically associated with geothermal resource utilization. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), partnering with Gradient Geothermal, Inc. (formerly known as Transitional Energy) and Grant Canyon Oil and Gas, has been tasked to evaluate the feasibility of geothermal electricity co-production at the Blackburn Oil Field with Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) generators. The Devonian steady-state reservoir has historically been producing high water cuts of 240 degrees F (115.6 degrees C) observed at the wellhead without documented pressure drawdown or thermal breakthrough. An estimated initial reservoir temperature of approx. 260 degrees F (126.7 degrees C) has been observed in the field and history-matched in a wellbore production analysis and reservoir simulation. Our objective was to develop a conceptual geological model of the subsurface, simulate a natural-state reservoir, model production scenarios, and complete a technical feasibility analysis to accomplish this task. Through extensive modeling and the use of available proprietary and public data, it was possible simulate three scenarios that indicated minimal thermal decline over the duration of a simulated ten-year production and re-injection scheme.

Blackburn Nevada↗

DOE OSTI2025

Verification and Validation of Open-Source Computational Fluid Dynamics Capabilities in MOOSE

The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) advances predictive modeling in nuclear research by simplifying the application design process and making modeling more efficient and accessible to researchers and the broader community. Because of MOOSE’s critical role in the scientific computation field, verification and validation are important to evaluate the reliability and credibility of MOOSE’s code, simulations, and models. To assess MOOSE’s Navier Stokes module and turbulence models, the following verification and validation University of Manchester ERCOFTAC cases were simulated in MOOSE, and the results were compared: Case 032 Turbulent Flow in a 2D Channel Case 079 Natural Convection in an Enclosed Cavity

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗

DOE OSTI2018

Ecological analysis of associations between groundwater quality and hypertension and cardiovascular disease in rural Saskatchewan, Canada using Bayesian hierarchical models and administrative health data

Highlights: • Hardness and magnesium were associated with decreased risk of cardiovascular disease. • Arsenic concentrations were not associated with the risk of cardiovascular disease. • Summarized water health standards were not associated with cardiovascular disease. Associations between groundwater quality and the prevalence of hypertension and ischemic heart disease were investigated in rural areas of the Canadian province of Saskatchewan. The partially ecological study was analyzed using Bayesian hierarchical models to account for spatial variability in risk. Exposure measures and health outcomes were estimated based on previously collected water quality surveillance data from public water supplies and private wells and administrative health data. Water quality exposures for each study region were estimated by applying geostatistical techniques to arsenic concentrations and principal component (PC) scores. The PC scores summarized groups of parameters measuring either health standards or aesthetic objectives described by the province. Generalized linear mixed models with a log link assessed associations between water quality and observed count of health outcomes relative to the expected value. The Bayesian models contained uncorrelated and spatially correlated random effects for each geographic region. Effect estimates were controlled for sex and age by stratification of case and expected case counts, for smoking by inclusion of sex- and age-specific prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease as a surrogate covariate, and for education and income by use of census data. There was no evidence for associations between groundwater arsenic concentrations in public or private water supplies and increased risk of hypertension or cardiovascular disease. An increase in the second aesthetic objectives PC score from public supplies was associated with a protective effect against ischemic heart disease. This PC value summarized hardness and magnesium Similarly, an increase in the second aesthetic objectives PC in private supplies was associated with decreased prevalence of hypertension. The results of this study are consistent with others demonstrating a relationship between elevated hardness and magnesium concentrations in drinking water and reduced risk of hypertension and cardiovascular disease. Further investigation is warranted with individual exposure history, particularly with respect to the potential beneficial effect of hard water on the prevalence of hypertension and cardiovascular disease.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multichannel deconvolution of vibrational signals: A state-space inverse filtering approach

Deconvolution of noisy measurements, especially when they are multichannel, has always been a challenging problem. The processing techniques developed range from simple Fourier methods to more sophisticated model-based parametric methodologies based on the underlying acoustics of the problem at hand. Methods relying on multichannel mean-squared error processors (Wiener filters) have evolved over long periods from the seminal efforts in seismic processing. However, when more is known about the acoustics, then model-based state-space techniques incorporating the underlying process physics can improve the processing significantly. The problems of interest are the vibrational response of tightly coupled acoustic test objects excited by an out-of-the-ordinary transient, potentially impairing their operational performance. Further, employing a multiple input/multiple output structural model of the test objects under investigation enables the development of an inverse filter by applying subspace identification techniques during initial calibration measurements. Feasibility applications based on a mass transport experiment and test object calibration test demonstrate the ability of the processor to extract the excitations successfully.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2014

Rapid Response Radiation Sensors for Homeland Security Applications

The National Security Technologies, LLC, Remote Sensing Laboratory is developing a rapid response radiation detection system for homeland security field applications. The intelligence-driven system is deployed only when non-radiological information about the target is verifiable. The survey area is often limited, so the detection range is small; in most cases covering a distance of 10 meters or less suffices. Definitive response is required in no more than 3 seconds and should minimize false negative alarms, but can err on the side of positive false alarms. The detection system is rapidly reconfigurable in terms of size, shape, and outer appearance; it is a plug-and-play system. Multiple radiation detection components (viz., two or more sodium iodide scintillators) are used to independently “over-determine” the existence of the threat object. Rapid response electronic dose rate meters are also included in the equipment suite. Carefully studied threat signatures are the basis of the decision making. The use of Rad-Detect predictive modeling provides information on the nature of the threat object. Rad-Detect provides accurate dose rate from heavily shielded large sources; for example those lost in Mexico were Category 1 radiation sources (~3,000 Ci of 60Co), the most dangerous of five categories defined by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Taken out of their shielding containers, Category 1 sources can kill anyone who is exposed to them at close range for a few minutes to an hour. Whenever possible sub-second data acquisition will be attempted, and, when deployed, the system will be characterized for false alarm rates. Although the radiation detection materials selected are fast (viz., faster scintillators), their speed is secondary to sensitivity, which is of primary importance. Results from these efforts will be discussed and demonstrated.

gamma detector, false alarm rate, sub-second data ↗

DOE OSTI2018

OSIRIS-REx, bringing back a bit of an asteroid

The OSIRIS-REx mission will provide invaluable ground-truth validation for the computer models in a case study that set out to determine the timeframe within which we must launch either a kinetic impactor or a nuclear explosive carrier and develop a conceptual design for that spacecraft. From the on-asteroid data gathered when the spacecraft touches down and, eventually, from hands-on research here on Earth, we will get a reality check for what we think we know about Bennu’s material composition (boulders, chunks, and dust), shape, mass, density, and so on. Gravimetric data could reveal whether the asteroid is hollow. Back on Earth, researchers will run various tests on the material. We may have enough information to develop a theoretical equation of state. We could then compare it to its closest match in SESAME, the Los Alamos database of equations of state. Armed with that data, we will rerun the models to see how much each scenario changes. Comparing data from the touchdown and sample return to the earlier, remotely observed data from Bennu will help us calibrate remote observations of other objects in the future. Then we can more precisely model the effects of our deflection and disruption strategies and refine the spacecraft design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Quasar classification using color and variability

We conduct a pilot investigation to determine the optimal combination of color and variability information to identify quasars in current and future multi-epoch optical surveys. We use a Bayesian quasar selection algorithm to identify 35,820 type 1 quasar candidates in a 239 deg{sup 2} field of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Stripe 82, using a combination of optical photometry and variability. Color analysis is performed on 5-band single- and multi-epoch SDSS optical photometry to a depth of r∼22.4. From these data, variability parameters are calculated by fitting the structure function of each object in each band with a power-law model using 10 to >100 observations over timescales from ∼1 day to ∼8 years. Selection was based on a training sample of 13,221 spectroscopically confirmed type-1 quasars, largely from the SDSS. Using variability alone, colors alone, and combining variability and colors we achieve 91%, 93%, and 97% quasar completeness and 98%, 98%, and 97% efficiency, respectively, with particular improvement in the selection of quasars at 2.7<z<3.5 where quasars and stars have similar optical colors. The 22,867 quasar candidates that are not spectroscopically confirmed reach a depth of i∼22.0; 21,876 (95.7%) are dimmer than coadded i-band magnitude of 19.9, the cutoff for spectroscopic follow-up for SDSS on Stripe 82. Brighter than 19.9, we find 5.7% more quasar candidates without confirming spectra in sky regions otherwise considered complete. The resulting quasar sample has sufficient purity (and statistically correctable incompleteness) to produce a luminosity function comparable to those determined by spectroscopic investigations. We discuss improvements that can be made to the process in preparation for performing similar photometric selection and science on data from post-SDSS sky surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗