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At least 1,585 records · Page 88

Modeling Failure of Electrical Transformers due to Effects of a HEMP Event

Understanding the effect of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) on the equipment in the United States electrical power grid is important to national security. A present challenge to this understanding is evaluating the vulnerability of transformers to a HEMP. Evaluating vulnerability by direct testing is cost-prohibitive, due to the wide variation in transformers, their high cost, and the large number of tests required to establish vulnerability with confidence. Alternatively, material and component testing can be performed to quantify a model for transformer failure, and the model can be used to assess vulnerability of a wide variety of transformers. This project develops a model of the probability of equipment failure due to effects of a HEMP. Potential failure modes are cataloged, and a model structure is presented which can be quantified by the results of small-scale coupon tests.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Using Bayesian Methodology to Estimate Liquefied Natural Gas Leak Frequencies

This analysis provides estimates on the leak frequencies of nine components found in liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities. Data was taken from a variety of sources, with 25 different data sets included in the analysis. A hierarchical Bayesian model was used that assumes that the log leak frequency follows a normal distribution and the logarithm of the mean of this normal distribution is a linear function of the logarithm of the fractional leak area. This type of model uses uninformed prior distributions that are updated with applicable data. Separate models are fit for each component listed. Five order-of-magnitude fractional leak areas are considered, based on the flow area of the component. Three types of supporting analyses were performed: sensitivity of the model to the data set used, sensitivity of the leak frequency estimates to differences in the model structure or prior distributions, and sufficiency of sample sized used for convergence. Recommended leak frequency distributions for all component types and leak sizes are given. These leak frequency predictions can be used for quantitative risk assessments in the future.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Semiconductor Nanostructures by Scientific Design (Final Technical Report)

We developed and used quantum simulation techniques to predict structural, electronic, optical and thermal properties affecting the scientific design of semiconductor nanostructures. We focused on the study of surfaces and interfaces at the nanoscale, in particular embedding and solvation of semiconductor nanoparticles, and provided a microscopic description of nanostructured materials in realistic environments, directly comparable with experimental conditions. We addressed three major problems: (i) the design of realistic structural models of integrated nanostructures, e.g. quantum dots embedded in solid matrices and nanostructures immersed in fluids; (ii) the development of efficient and accurate calculations to describe the excited state properties of nanostructures, beyond standard Density Functional Theory, so as to understand and predict electronic properties involved in renewable energy applications, for example solar conversion devices. In particular we developed and used methods based on a many body perturbation theory. (iii) the development of calculations of heat transport properties of nanostructured materials, for thermoelectric applications, including predictive calculations of thermal and electrical conductivity and of Seebeck coefficients. Specifically, we developed and used methods based on the Boltzmann transport equation and molecular dynamics.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Studies of Reactive Amorphous Compounds and Surfaces: Their Pathways to Crystallinity and Surface Functionality

This project was originally headed by Dr. Abraham Clearfield (Texas A&M University, ret.) and focused on developing structural models of zirconium phosphate (ZrP) based materials at different stages of crystalline order using PDF techniques developed by co-PI Dr. Simon Billinge (Columbia University). When Dr. Clearfield retired, the project was taken over by Dr. Hong-Cai Zhou (Texas A&M University). The project proposed looking at defective metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) supported on the surface of the ZrP materials. During the project, the personnel conducted studies of the dispersion of different phosphate ligands in mixed organic phosphonates, and how they could be utilized to incorporate different metals within the ZrP interlayer spacing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Ab initio study of the structure and properties of amorphous silicon hydride from accelerated molecular dynamics simulations

This paper presents a large-scale ab initio simulation study of amorphous silicon hydride (a-Si 1-x H x ) with an emphasis on the structure and properties of the material across a range of hydrogen concentration by combining accelerated molecular dynamics (MD) simulations with first-principles density-functional calculations. The accelerated MD scheme relied on classical metadynamics, which enabled the development of 2600+ high-quality structural models of a-Si 1-x H x , with system sizes ranging from 150 to 6,000 atoms and hydrogen concentrations vary from 6 to 20 at. %. The resulting amorphous networks were found to be completely free from any coordination defects and that they all exhibited a pristine band-gap in their electronic spectrum. The microstructural properties of hydrogen distributions were examined with great emphasis on the presence of isolated and clustered environments of hydrogen atoms. The results were compared with a suite of experimental data obtained from x-ray diffraction, infrared spectroscopy, spectroscopic ellipsometry and nuclear magnetic resonance studies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Learning Operators for Structure-Informed Surrogate Models

This report summarizes the work performed under the author's two-year John von Neumann LDRD project, which involves the non-intrusive surrogate modeling of dynamical systems with remarkable structural properties. After a brief introduction to the topic, technical accomplishments and project metrics are reviewed including peer-reviewed publications, software releases, external presentations and colloquia, as well as organized conference sessions and minisymposia. The report concludes with a summary of ongoing projects and collaborations which utilize the results of this work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Introduction to NETL Natural Gas LCA

This work presents an overview of NETL natural gas (NG) life cycle modeling. The content covers: introduction, model structure and unit processes, co-product management, and highlights from the recently published NETL NG baseline report.

life cycle analysis (LCA)↗

COMSOL Results for the Nominal Steady-State Operation of the Proposed 95-MW LEU Silicide Core for HFIR Conversion

Engineering design studies are being performed to determine the feasibility of converting the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) from highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This activity is sponsored by the Office of Reactor Conversion and Uranium Supply (ORCUS) under the auspices of the US Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration’s Office of Material Management and Minimization. HFIR is a very high flux, pressurized, light water–cooled and moderated, flux trap–type research reactor with a core made of involute shaped U 3 O 8 /Al cermet fuel plates and coolant channels. HFIR currently operates at a thermal power of 85 MW and supports key national and international missions in neutron scattering, isotope production, materials/fuels irradiation, neutron activation analysis, gamma irradiation, and neutrino research. Advanced multiphysics computational fluid dynamics models have been developed in the COMSOL Multiphysics software to simulate the steady-state operating conditions for the proposed low-and high-density LEU U 3 Si 2 -Al (uranium silicide dispersion) fuel designs. The COMSOL models for HFIR inner and outer fuel element models incorporate various essential inputs and physics such as spatially dependent nuclear heat deposition, multilayer heat conduction, conjugate heat transfer, turbulent flows (using Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes turbulence models), structural mechanics (thermal–structural interactions and fuel swelling), and oxide layer build-up. This report presents the best-estimate thermal hydraulics results for the low- and high-density optimized silicide LEU core designs at 95 MW steady-state nominal operation.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Core Model Proposal #359: Hydrogen and Transportation Technology Update

This core model proposal updates modeling structures, key technology assumptions, and data sources for a detailed representation of hydrogen in GCAM’s energy system, including production, transmission and distribution, and consumption in hydrogen end-use sectors (buildings, transportation, industry).

08 HYDROGEN↗

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from analytic models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as technology and infrastructure deployment, to global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require the designers of these models to trade off between coverage and resolution. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses but at a relatively coarse level of resolution. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers by endogenously projecting prices for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This global model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy released by the White House in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide decarbonization discussions and strategy development for decades. Other models instead focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects capacity expansion with an emphasis on integration of variable renewable energy into the grid of the future. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices in adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the United States. These global and sector-specific modeling approaches can complement each other. The global approach ensures consistent, endogenous energy pricing and resource allocation, which can substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios, while the sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and tradeoffs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and discusses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Plant sulfate transporter protein sequences for phylogenetic analysis

Sulfur is an essential macronutrient that supports plant growth, development, and responses to environmental stress. Sulfate is the predominant inorganic form of sulfur in soils, and its uptake by roots and translocation to shoots are facilitated by the sulfate transporter (SULTR) family of proteins. Although the first plant SULTR gene was identified nearly three decades ago, several subfamily members, particularly those in the expansive and angiosperm-specific SULTR3 group, remain poorly characterized. To support comprehensive phylogenetic and sequence-based analyses, we compiled a curated dataset of 262 SULTR protein sequences from 22 plant species spanning the evolutionary breadth of land plants. This collection includes representatives from two basal lineages, two early-divergent angiosperms, six monocots, and ten dicots. All sequences were extracted from genome assemblies available in Phytozome v13 (Joint Genome Institute) and manually curated, with cross-referencing to additional databases such as NCBI when needed. This dataset provides a valuable resource for reconstructing the evolutionary history of the SULTR family, with particular emphasis on the diversification of SULTR3 transporters in flowering plants. This resource may also support functional annotation, comparative genomics, and structural modeling of sulfate transport proteins.

CBI↗

Two related families of metal transferases, ZNG1 and ZNG2, are involved in acclimation to poor Zn nutrition in Arabidopsis

Metal homeostasis has evolved to tightly modulate the availability of metals within the cell, avoiding cytotoxic interactions due to excess and protein inactivity due to deficiency. Even in the presence of homeostatic processes, however, low bioavailability of these essential metal nutrients in soils can negatively impact crop health and yield. While research has largely focused on how plants assimilate metals, acclimation to metal-limited environments requires a suite of strategies that are not necessarily involved in metal transport across membranes. The identification of these mechanisms provides a new opportunity to improve metal-use efficiency and develop plant foodstuffs with increased concentrations of bioavailable metal nutrients. Here, we investigate the function of two distinct subfamilies of the nucleotide-dependent metallochaperones (NMCs), named ZNG1 and ZNG2, that are found in plants, using Arabidopsis thaliana as a reference organism. AtZNG1 (AT1G26520) is an ortholog of human and fungal ZNG1, and like its previously characterized eukaryotic relatives, localizes to the cytosol and physically interacts with methionine aminopeptidase type I (AtMAP1A). Analysis of At ZNG1 , At MAP1A , At MAP2A , and At MAP2B transgenic mutants are consistent with the role of Arabidopsis ZNG1 as a Zn transferase for AtMAP1A, as previously described in yeast and zebrafish. Structural modeling reveals a flexible cysteine-rich loop that we hypothesize enables direct transfer of Zn from AtZNG1 to AtMAP1A during GTP hydrolysis. Based on proteomics and transcriptomics, loss of this ancient and conserved mechanism has pleiotropic consequences impacting the expression of hundreds of genes, including those involved in photosynthesis and vesicle transport. Members of the plant-specific family of NMCs, ZNG2A1 (AT1G80480) and ZNG2A2 (AT1G15730), are also required during Zn deficiency, but their target protein(s) remain to be discovered. In conclusion, RNA-seq analyses reveal wide-ranging impacts across the cell when the genes encoding these plastid-localized NMCs are disrupted.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Interplay between Perovskite Magic-Sized Clusters and Amino Lead Halide Molecular Clusters

Recent progress has been made on the synthesis and characterization of metal halide perovskite magic-sized clusters (PMSCs) with ABX 3 composition ( A = C H 3 N H 3 + or Cs + , B = P b 2 + , and X = C l − , Br - , or I - ). However, their mechanism of growth and structure is still not well understood. In our effort to understand their structure and growth, we discovered that a new species can be formed without the CH 3 NH 3 + component, which we name as molecular clusters (MCs). Specifically, CH 3 NH 3 PbBr 3 PMSCs, with a characteristic absorption peak at 424 nm, are synthesized using PbBr 2 and CH 3 NH 3 Br as precursors and butylamine (BTYA) and valeric acid (VA) as ligands, while MCs, with an absorption peak at 402 nm, are synthesized using solely PbBr 2 and BTYA, without CH 3 NH 3 Br. Interestingly, PMSCs are converted spontaneously overtime into MCs. An isosbestic point in their electronic absorption spectra indicates a direct interplay between the PMSCs and MCs. Therefore, we suggest that the MCs are precursors to the PMSCs. From spectroscopic and extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) results, we propose some tentative structural models for the MCs. The discovery of the MCs is critical to understanding the growth of PMSCs as well as larger perovskite quantum dots (PQDs) or nanocrystals (PNCs).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Metabolic tradeoffs and heterogeneity in microbial responses to temperature determine the fate of litter carbon in simulations of a warmer world

Abstract. Climate change has the potential to destabilize the Earth's massive terrestrial carbon (C) stocks, but the degree to which models project this destabilization to occur depends on the kinds and complexities of microbial processes they simulate. Of particular note is carbon use efficiency (CUE), which determines the fraction of C processed by microbes that is anabolized into microbial biomass rather than lost to the atmosphere and soil as carbon dioxide and extracellular products. The temperature sensitivity of CUE is often modeled as an intrinsically fixed (homogeneous) property of the community, which contrasts with empirical data and has unknown impacts on projected changes to the soil C cycle under global warming. We used the Decomposition Model of Enzymatic Traits (DEMENT) – which simulates taxon-level litter decomposition dynamics – to explore the effects of introducing organism-level heterogeneity into the CUE response to temperature for decomposition of leaf litter under 5 ∘C of warming. We found that allowing the CUE temperature response to differ between taxa facilitated increased loss of litter C, unless fungal taxa were specifically restricted to decreasing CUE with temperature. Litter C loss was exacerbated by variable and elevated CUE at higher temperature, which effectively lowered costs for extracellular enzyme production. Together these results implicate a role for diversity of taxon-level CUE responses in driving the fate of litter C in a warmer world within DEMENT, which should be explored within the framework of additional model structures and validated with empirical studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The quasi-equilibrium framework revisited: analyzing long-term CO 2 enrichment responses in plant–soil models

Abstract. Elevated carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) can increase plant growth, but themagnitude of this CO 2 fertilization effect is modified by soilnutrient availability. Predicting how nutrient availability affects plantresponses to elevated CO 2 is a key consideration for ecosystemmodels, and many modeling groups have moved to, or are moving towards,incorporating nutrient limitation in their models. The choice of assumptionsto represent nutrient cycling processes has a major impact on modelpredictions, but it can be difficult to attribute outcomes to specificassumptions in complex ecosystem simulation models. Here we revisit thequasi-equilibrium analytical framework introduced by Comins andMcMurtrie (1993) and explore the consequences of specific model assumptionsfor ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP). We review the literature applying this framework to plant–soilmodels and then analyze the effect of several new assumptions on predictedplant responses to elevated CO 2 . Examination of alternativeassumptions for plant nitrogen uptake showed that a linear function of themineral nitrogen pool or a linear function of the mineral nitrogen pool withan additional saturating function of root biomass yield similar CO 2 responses at longer timescales ( >5 years), suggesting that the addedcomplexity may not be needed when these are the timescales of interest. Incontrast, a saturating function of the mineral nitrogen pool with lineardependency on root biomass yields no soil nutrient feedback on thevery-long-term ( >500 years), near-equilibrium timescale, meaning that oneshould expect the model to predict a full CO 2 fertilization effecton production. Secondly, we show that incorporating a priming effect on slowsoil organic matter decomposition attenuates the nutrient feedback effect onproduction, leading to a strong medium-term (5–50 years) CO 2 response. Models incorporating this priming effect should thus predict astrong and persistent CO 2 fertilization effect over time. Thirdly,we demonstrate that using a “potential NPP” approach to represent nutrientlimitation of growth yields a relatively small CO 2 fertilizationeffect across all timescales. Overall, our results highlight thefact that the quasi-equilibriumanalytical framework is effective for evaluating both the consequences andmechanisms through which different model assumptions affect predictions. Tohelp constrain predictions of the future terrestrial carbon sink, werecommend the use of this framework to analyze likely outcomes of new modelassumptions before introducing them to complex model structures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

QuadTune version 1: a regional tuner for global atmospheric models

When a new, better-formulated physical parameterization is introduced into a global atmospheric model, aspects of the global model solutions are sometimes degraded. Then, in order to use the new global model to address science questions, there is an incentive to restore its accuracy. Oftentimes this restoration is achieved by tuning of model parameter values. Unfortunately, the retuning process is expensive because characterizing the parameter dependence requires numerous time-consuming global simulations. To reduce the cost of tuning, this manuscript introduces a “poor man's” model tuner, “QuadTune”. QuadTune carves the globe into regions and approximates the model parameter dependence through the use of an uncorrelated quadratic emulator (i.e., response surface). The simplicity of the emulator reduces the required number of global model simulations and aids explainability of tuner behavior. Tuning removes parametric error but leaves behind model structural error. Structural error manifests itself as regional residual biases, such as stubborn biases and tuning trade-offs. To visualize these residual biases, QuadTune's software includes a set of diagnostic plots. This paper illustrates the use of the plots for characterizing residual biases with an example tuning problem.

Environmental sciences↗

Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison

Abstract. This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0–20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air–surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land–atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quaternary slip rates and most recent surface rupture of the Bitterroot fault, western Montana

The Bitterroot fault is a ~100-km-long Quaternary active normal fault that bounds the eastern margin of the north–south-trending Bitterroot Mountains and accommodates extension near the Intermountain Seismic Belt. Here, new detailed mapping using high-resolution topographic data derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) along the southern Bitterroot Range documents multiple generations of fault scarps in Holocene–Pleistocene deposits with vertical off sets that increase in magnitude with age. Fault mapping indicates a complex fault geometry characterized by an en echelon pattern of discontinuous segments of 41–78° east-dipping normal faults that appear to cut the older Eocene detachment fault, and locally 70–88° west-dipping antithetic normal faults. 10 Be cosmogenic exposure dating provides in situ age control for 32 surface boulders (>1 m) sampled in glacial deposits. Near Como Dam, two Pinedale-age glacial moraine sequences yield peak age distributions of 15.0 ± 0.4 ka and 16.4 ± 0.6 ka as apparent exposure ages (e = 0), and 15.4 ± 0.4 ka and 16.8 ± 0.6 ka based on the maximum allowed boulder surface erosion rate (e = 2 mm/ka). Vertical separation of 3.5 ± 0.2 m across the ~16–17 ka glacial moraine off set by the Bitterroot fault scarp yields a fault slip rate of 0.2–0.3 mm/yr. Glacial Lake Missoula highstand shorelines, inset into the ~15 ka glacial moraine and vertically off set 4.6 ± 1.6 m by an antithetic strand of the Bitterroot fault, yield fault slip rates of 0.2–0.5 mm/yr that overlap with fault slip rates on the main strand near Lake Como (0.2–0.3 mm/yr). At the Ward Creek fan located ~15 km to the north of Lake Como, two glacial debris fan sequences yield peak age distributions of 16.6 ± 0.4 ka and 62.8 ± 1.7 ka (e = 0), and 17.0 ± 0.4 ka and 69.9 ± 2.2 ka (e = 2 mm/ka). Vertical separations of 2.4 ± 0.3 m and 4.5 ± 0.2 m on the ~17 ka and ~63–70 ka fan surfaces off set by the Bitterroot fault yield fault slip rates of 0.2–0.3 mm/yr and 0.1 mm/yr, respectively. Our results indicate broadly consistent fault slip rates for the main fault segments at Lake Como (0.2–0.3 mm/yr) and the Ward Creek fan (0.1–0.3 mm/yr) with an along-strike range of 0.1–0.3 mm/yr for the southern Bitterroot fault. Fault scaling relations and evidence of multiple late Quaternary fault surface ruptures suggest the Bitterroot fault could produce a Mw ~7.2 earthquake. Structural model constraints and our slip rate results indicate both high-angle or low-angle fault geometries are possible at depth. A seismogenic low-angle fault model could generate a larger earthquake of Mw >7.2. Earthquake history is unknown for the Bitterroot fault, but fault scarps in young glacial deposits demonstrate its seismogenic potential. Data from this study suggest seismic hazards from the Bitterroot fault may pose a high level of risk to the Missoula metropolitan area, the State’s second most populous region, and major infrastructures across the Missoula and Bitterroot Valleys.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗