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Uncertainty analysis of correlated parameters in automated reaction mechanism generation
Abstract Uncertainty analysis is a useful tool for inspecting and improving detailed kinetic mechanisms because it can identify the greatest sources of model output error. Owing to the very nonlinear relationship between kinetic and thermodynamic parameters and computed concentrations, model predictions can be extremely sensitive to uncertainties in some parameters while uncertainties in other parameters can be irrelevant. Error propagation becomes even more convoluted in automatically generated kinetic models, where input uncertainties are correlated through kinetic rate rules and thermodynamic group values. Local and global uncertainty analyses were implemented and used to analyze error propagation in Reaction Mechanism Generator (RMG), an open‐source software for generating kinetic models. A framework for automatically assigning parameter uncertainties to estimated thermodynamics and kinetics was created, enabling tracking of correlated uncertainties. Local first‐order uncertainty propagation was implemented using sensitivities computed natively within RMG. Global uncertainty analysis was implemented using adaptive Smolyak pseudospectral approximations as implemented in the MIT Uncertainty Quantification Library to efficiently compute and construct polynomial chaos expansions to approximate the dependence of outputs on a subset of uncertain inputs. Cantera was used as a backend for simulating the reactor system in the global analysis. Analyses were performed for a phenyldodecane pyrolysis model. Local and global methods demonstrated similar trends; however, many uncertainties were significantly overestimated by the local analysis. Both local and global analyses show that correlated uncertainties based on kinetic rate rules and thermochemical groups drastically reduce a model's degrees of freedom and have a large impact on the determination of the most influential input parameters. These results highlight the necessity of incorporating uncertainty analysis in the mechanism generation workflow.
Bayesian Segmentation (BCNN) v.1
Deep learning has been applied with great success to the segmentation of 3D X-Ray Computed Tomography (CT) scans. Establishing the credibility of these segmentations requires uncertainty quantification (UQ) to identify problem areas. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), which use variational inference to learn the posterior distribution of the neural network weights, have been proposed to incorporate UQ into deep learning models. This software is an implementation of a novel 3D Bayesian convolutional neural network (BCNN) that provides accurate binary segmentations and uncertainty maps for 3D volumes. In particular, the uncertainty maps generated by this BCNN capture continuity and visual gradients, making them interpretable as confidence intervals for segmentation usable in numerical simulations. SAND2019-12927 M Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.
Sensitivity Analysis of Neutron Multiplicity Counting Statistics Using First-Order Perturbation Theory and Application to a Subcritical Plutonium Metal Benchmark
It is frequently important to estimate the uncertainty and sensitivity of measured and computed detector responses in subcritical experiments and simulations. These uncertainties arise from the physical construction of the experiment, uncertainties in the transport parameters, and counting uncertainties. Perturbation theory enables sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification on integral quantities like detector responses. Here the aim of our work is to apply SA to the statistics of subcritical neutron multiplicity counting distributions. Current SA methods have only been applied to mean detector responses and the keff eigenvalue. For multiplicity counting experiments, knowledge of the higher-order counting moments and their uncertainties are essential for a complete SA. We apply perturbation theory to compute the sensitivity of neutron multiplicity counting moments to arbitrarily high order. Each moment is determined by solving an adjoint transport equation with a source term that is a function of the adjoint solutions for lower-order moments. This enables moments of arbitrarily high order to be sequentially determined, and it shows that each moment is sensitive to the uncertainties of all lower-order moments. To close our SA of the moments, we derive forward transport equations that are functions of the forward flux and lower-order moment adjoint fluxes. We verify our calculations for the first three moments by comparison with multiplicity counting measurements of a subcritical plutonium metal sphere. For the first three moments, the most influential parameters are ranked, and the validity of first-order perturbation theory is demonstrated by examining the series truncation error. This enables a detailed SA of subcritical multiplicity counting measurements of fissionable material based on transport theory.
Data-Constrained Projections of Methane Fluxes in a Northern Minnesota Peatland in Response to Elevated CO 2 and Warming
Large uncertainties exist in predicting responses of wetland methane (CH 4 ) fluxes to future climate change. However, sources of the uncertainty have not been clearly identified despite the fact that methane production and emission processes have been extensively explored. In this study, we took advantage of manual CH 4 flux measurements under ambient environment from 2011 to 2014 at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experimental site and developed a data-informed process-based methane module. The module was incorporated into the Terrestrial ECOsystem (TECO) model before its parameters were constrained with multiple years of methane flux data for forecasting CH 4 emission under five warming and two elevated CO 2 treatments at SPRUCE. We found that 9°C warming treatments significantly increased methane emission by approximately 400%, and elevated CO 2 treatments stimulated methane emission by 10.4%–23.6% in comparison with ambient conditions. The relative contribution of plant-mediated transport to methane emission decreased from 96% at the control to 92% at the 9°C warming, largely to compensate for an increase in ebullition. The uncertainty in plant-mediated transportation and ebullition increased with warming and contributed to the overall changes of emissions uncertainties. At the same time, our modeling results indicated a significant increase in the emitted CH 4 :CO 2 ratio. This result, together with the larger warming potential of CH 4 , will lead to a strong positive feedback from terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming. In conclusion, the model-data fusion approach used in this study enabled parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification for forecasting methane fluxes.
Combined Error and Uncertainty Estimates for CFD Problems
Given input sources of uncertainty, non-intrusive uncertainty propagation methods quantify the uncertainty in output quantities of interest (QoI) by performing a nite number of CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) instance realizations needed in the calculation of output statistics. It is well known that this introduces multiple sources of error. CFD codes often utilize finite-dimensional approximation (grids, basis functions, etc.) thus incurring CFD numerical errors often approximately reinterpreted as a statistical bias. Uncertainty propagation methods calculate uncertainty statistics for output quantities of interest using a numerical method (e.g. deterministic quadrature, sampling, etc.) thus incurring UQ (Uncertainty Quantification) numerical errors. Importance of quantifying these errors in large scale scientific computing: How accurate is an output statistic?; How should additional computational resources be invested to further reduce the error in a statistic?
On the uncertainty of long-period return values of extreme daily precipitation
Methods for calculating return values of extreme precipitation and their uncertainty are compared using daily precipitation rates over the Western U.S. and Southwestern Canada from a large ensemble of climate model simulations. The roles of return-value estimation procedures and sample size in uncertainty are evaluated for various return periods. We compare two different generalized extreme value (GEV) parameter estimation techniques, namely L-moments and maximum likelihood (MLE), as well as empirical techniques. Even for very large datasets, confidence intervals calculated using GEV techniques are narrower than those calculated using empirical methods. Furthermore, the more efficient L-moments parameter estimation techniques result in narrower confidence intervals than MLE parameter estimation techniques at small sample sizes, but similar best estimates. It should be noted that we do not claim that either parameter fitting technique is better calibrated than the other to estimate long period return values. While a non-stationary MLE methodology is readily available to estimate GEV parameters, it is not for the L-moments method. Comparison of uncertainty quantification methods are found to yield significantly different estimates for small sample sizes but converge to similar results as sample size increases. Finally, practical recommendations about the length and size of climate model ensemble simulations and the choice of statistical methods to robustly estimate long period return values of extreme daily precipitation statistics and quantify their uncertainty.
Sensitivity of an integrated experiment to uncertainty in the high explosive equations of state
Traditionally, hydrodynamics simulations are performed with a single equation-of-state (EOS) to describe each material. These EOSs typically have a physics-informed functional form with adjustable parameters that are calibrated in order to replicate small-scale data. However, because the calibration data have uncertainty and there are typically inherent degeneracies in fitting the EOS, there are actually multiple EOSs that might be consistent with calibration data. In this work, we perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) for the reactant and product equations of state for the high explosive PBX 9501 to yield an ensemble of EOSs that match the uncertain small-scale calibration data. We then simulate an experiment of an explosively formed penetrator repeatedly with different EOSs to both validate the UQ analysis and determine the effects of EOS uncertainty on the prediction of quantities of interest in the experiment. In general, we find good agreement between the simulation predictions and the experimental measurements, and we identify an EOS variable that contributes most directly to the spread in the predictions as the EOSs are varied.
VUSAT - A VERA-CS Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Toolkit
VERA-CS (the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications, Core Simulator) is a high-fidelity multiphysics core simulator under development by the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL). VERA-CS includes three main components: MPACT for reactor physics and neutron transport, COBRA-TF for thermal-hydraulics, and ORIGEN for isotopic depletion. VERA-CS has been applied to an array of problems including core physics analysis, and the modeling for all of the fuel cycles of Watts Bar Nuclear Unit 1 (WBN1). MPACT is a 3D pin-resolved reactor transport code developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the University of Michigan. COBRA-TF (CTF) is a three-field two-phase flow subchannel analysis code developed by ORNL and North Carolina State University. CTF solves the mass, momentum, and energy equations for the liquid, vapor, and droplet phases for each subchannel in the core and captures the axial flow within each channel as well as cross-flow between channels. Direct coupling between neutronics (MPACT) and thermal-hydraulics (CTF) in VERA-CS provides temperature and density feedback. CTF includes a number of models important for LWR safety and design analysis including flow regime dependent two-phase wall heat transfer, inter-phase heat transfer and drag, droplet breakup, and quench-front tracking. ORIGEN is developed by ORNL and released through the SCALE package. ORIGEN is directly integrated in MPACT through its API to calculate the changes in nuclides for every depletable cross-section region. Uncertainties exist in safety calculations with computer codes for nuclear reactor modeling and simulation, and they come from code limitations, scaling inaccuracies embedded in the experimental data, and uncertainties associated with the state of the reactor at the initiation of the transient. Consequently, for applications of high fidelity calculations using VERA-CS, proper uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) of the computing models of reactor neutronics and thermal-hydraulics are important to comprehensively understand the results. New methods in UQ and SA have to be developed in multi-physics calculations using VERA-CS. Toward this end, a software package called VUSAT which stands for VERA-CS Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Toolkit has been developed to facilitate the applications of VERA-CS within the context of best estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) analysis framework. In this work, the VUSAT application to analyze departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) is presented.
AEOLUS: Advances in Experimental Design, Optimal Control, and Learning for Uncertain Complex Systems
Sustained advances in the mathematics of modeling and simulation have resulted in the capability today for routine simulation of a number of large scale complex DOE-relevant systems. As remarkable as this capability for solving the so-called forward problem is, it is typically only the first step-an inner loop within an outer loop that explores the simulation model's parameter space and decision space to characterize uncertainty in the model's predictions, learn unknown model parameters from data, design the most informative experiments, determine optimal control strategies, and create optimal designs. Broadly, what unifies all of these outer loop problems is that they are, in one form or another, optimization problems over parameter/control/design space that are constrained by complex uncertain models. To fully realize the power of scientific simulation as a basis for scientific discovery, technological innovation, and rational decision-making, it is imperative to move beyond simulation to tackle the outer loop of optimization for learning from data, experimental design, and control with complex uncertain models. When the models under consideration are large-scale and complex, and when the optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high (or infinite) dimensional, this constitutes a grand challenge of the highest order, and is intractable with conventional methods. To overcome these challenges, the AEOLUS Center was established to develop a unified mathematical, computational, and statistical framework for (1) Learning predictive models from complex data via Bayesian inference and optimization, and (2) Optimizing experiments, processes, and designs using the resulting uncertain models. These problems are intractable with conventional methods, for several reasons: (1) The simulation problems that govern the inner loops of the optimization problems are expensive to execute (due to severe nonlinearity, heterogeneity, multiphysics/multiscale coupling); (2) The optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high dimensional, often stemming from discretizations of infinite dimensional fields such as initial conditions, sources, or material properties. We argue that the key to overcoming these challenges is to develop new mathematical, computational, and statistical methods that exploit the structure of the Bayesian inference and optimization problems mediated by their underlying complex uncertain models. This structure includes the regularity, sparsity, geometry, low intrinsic dimensionality, and multifidelity nature of the maps from uncertain parameter/optimization variable spaces to the specific objectives targeted: Bayesian inference, optimal experimental design, and optimal control design. Black box methods developed as generic tools are incapable of exploiting this structure. To be successful, we must create, integrate, and cross-fertilize ideas across multiple areas of applied math--including approximation theory, Bayesian inference, data science, experimental design, information theory, machine learning, model reduction, optimal control theory, parallel algorithms, PDE-constrained optimization, randomized algorithms, stochastic optimization, and uncertainty quantification--all while exploiting the structure of the problems at hand. With this goal in mind, we have marshaled a team of leading authorities in these areas. While the methods we develop will be broadly applicable across a wide spectrum of DOE problems in which experiments inform models and the systems those models describe must be optimized under uncertainty, we have chosen a specific area, advanced manufacturing and materials, to drive our work. AMM is characterized by complex models across multiple scales, and is a rich source of challenging problems in inference, experimental design, and optimal control, requiring multifaceted and integrated advances in applied mathematics. As such, AMM serves as an excellent vehicle to motivate and demonstrate the advances in applied mathematics developed by our center.
Evaluation of PBR Spent Fuel Criticality and Dose Rate Compliance for Storage and Transportation
Spent tri-structural isotropic (TRISO)–based fuels have a strong track record in storage and transportation without documented incidents. This work seeks to reduce uncertainty to aid in more informed spent fuel management of TRISO-based fuels by modeling both fresh and spent pebble bed reactor (PBR) fuel and comparing the results to the regulatory standards from 10 CFR 71. SCALE was used for all modeling due to it having fast and accurate methods for handling PBR fuel modeling, as well as having an efficient method for shielding calculations in monaco with automated variance reduction using importance calculations (MAVRIC), which utilizes the consistent adjoint-driven importance sampling (CADIS) and the forward-weighted consistent adjoint-driven importance sampling (FW-CADIS) methods. KENO-VI was used for all criticality calculations, TSUNAMI was used for uncertainty quantification on k-effective, TRITON and the Oak Ridge isotope generation code (ORIGEN) were both used for depletion of the fuel, and MAVRIC was used for shielding calculations. For criticality assessments, this study focused on the requirement that the value of the neutron multiplication factor, k-effective (k-eff), would not exceed a peak value of 0.95, including uncertainty, with 95% confidence. Criticality was initially examined by modeling fresh fuel from three different designs—HTR-10 fuel, PBMR-400 fuel, and demonstration fuel representative of a TRISO-fueled modern high-temperature gas reactor (HTGR) design, henceforth referred to as Demo HTGR—and placing them into various sized containers with conditions described in 10 CFR 71 to quantify the peak k-eff state. When the peak value of 0.95 k-eff was exceeded, mitigation methods were examined in those scenarios. Burnup credit, pebble displacement in areas of strong neutron multiplication, and random pebble replacement using pebbles of various compositions and replacement fractions were examined. In summary, the criticality of PBR fuels can be well accounted for by restricting container size, taking credit for burnup, or by displacing/replacing pebbles. Uncertainty of the k-eff due to nuclear data uncertainties was recorded at ~0.6644%Δk/k, or roughly 664% mil (pcm). The nuclear data–induced uncertainty was relatively small and should not require significant modification in the design to be accounted for. Revisions to the evaluated nuclear data file values have been shown to have a larger impact than nuclear data–induced uncertainty. For dose rate aspects, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations require a maximum dose rate of 10 millirem per hour (mrem/h) at 2 meters. In examining the dose rate behavior of spent PBR fuel, the representative Demo HTGR fuel was modeled exclusively due to it possessing the highest target burnup of the examined fuels. Equilibrium cycle modeling methods were used to produce a higher-fidelity discharge isotopic composition than simple assumptions, such as reflected pebbles. The discharge composition was used as a source term in the fixed-source transport shielding calculations, and dose rates were calculated at 2 m for the shortest possible cooling time. The low concentration of fuel material led to dose rates that were in line with regulatory limits, despite the high burnup when compared to traditional light water reactor fuels. In conclusion, the methods employed in this study would require more work to further verify and validate and are limited to the criticality and dose rate analyses performed.
Data-Driven and Precursor-Group Uncertainty Propagation of Lattice Kinetic Parameters in UAM Benchmark
A new data-driven sampling-based framework was developed for uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the homogenized kinetic parameters calculated by lattice physics codes such as TRITON and Polaris. In this study, extension of the database for the delayed neutron data (DND) is performed by exploring more delayed neutron experiments and adding additional isotopes/actinides to the data libraries. Afterwards, the framework is utilized to obtain a deeper knowledge of the kinetic parameters’ sensitivity and uncertainty. The kinetic parameters include precursor-group-wise delayed neutron fraction (DNF) and decay constant. Input uncertainties include nuclear data (i.e., cross-sections) and DND (i.e., precursor group parameters and fractional delayed neutron yield). It is found that kinetic parameters, especially DNFs, have large uncertainties. The DNF uncertainty is driven by the cross-section uncertainties for LWR designs, while decay constant uncertainty is dominated by the DND uncertainties. The usage of correlated U-235 thermal DND in the UQ process significantly reduces the DND uncertainty contribution on the kinetic parameters. Large void fraction and presence of neutron absorber (e.g., control rod) increase the DNF uncertainty due to the hardening of neutron spectrum. High correlation between the DNF groups ( β 1 , . . , β 6 ) is observed, while the decay constant groups ( λ 1 , . . , λ 6 ) show weak correlation to each other and also to DNF groups. The DNF uncertainties of the dominant precursor group 4 for PWR, BWR, and VVER are about 7.5%, 9.4%, and 7.6%, respectively. The DNF uncertainty grows to larger values after fuel burnup. Kinetic parameters’ values and uncertainties provided here can be efficiently used in subsequent core calculations, point reactor kinetics, and other applications.
Predicting Ice Sheet and Climate Evolution on Extreme Scales (PISCEES) Final Report
Predicting Ice Sheet and Climate Evolution at Extreme Scales (PISCEES) PISCEES is a SciDAC Earth System Modeling project with the following goals: To develop and apply robust, accurate, and scalable dynamical cores for ice sheet modeling on structured and unstructured meshes with adaptive refinements To evaluate ice sheet models using new tools and data sets for verification and validation (V&V) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) To integrate these models and tools into DOE's Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) using improved estimates of ice sheet initial conditions, we will simulate decade-to-century-scale evolution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, running PISCEES ice sheet models both in standalone mode and coupled to ACME. We aim to provide useful, credible predictions, including uncertainty ranges, of future ice-sheet mass loss and resulting changes in climate and sea level. PISCEES is jointly funded by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) and the Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) of the DOE Office of Science. Participating institutions: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) Florida State University (FSU) Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) University of South Carolina (USC) University of Texas at Austin (UT) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) (https://www.scidac.gov/PISCEES/).
Formatting and V&V of Consistent 238,240−24 2Pu $\overline{v}_p$ Evaluated Mean Values and Covariances
This report is in answer to the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program FY24 quarter 4 milestone that requires: “Format and V&V nu-bar means and covariances” for 238,240-242 Pu average prompt fission neutron multiplicities, $\overline{ν}$ p , that were obtained by a consistent evaluation leveraging the fission-event generator CGMF and a detailed uncertainty quantification of experimental data. It is described how nuclear data mean values and covariances were formatted using ENDFtk. Implementing the new 238,240-242 Pu $\overline{ν}$ p into the ENDF/B-VIII.1β 4 library leads to only small overall changes in criticality values of the Jezebel, Dirty Jezebel, Jupiter-001, Jupiter-002, EUCLID 3x2 and EUCLID 8x1 critical assemblies. Simulated k eff uncertainties due to $\overline{ν}$ p covariances change only little if cross-isotope covariances are considered or not for those assemblies with low percentage content of minor Pu isotopes. However, for the Dirty Jezebel critical assembly, that has a sizeable 240 Pu and non-negligible 241 Pu content, the simulated k eff uncertainties due to considering or neglecting cross-isotope $\overline{ν}$ p covariances is 443 versus 374 pcm.
Quantifying Uncertainty in HPC Job Queue Time Predictions
High Performance Computing (HPC) has developed at an unprecedented pace in recent decades. This growth has demanded corresponding development in the area of HPC Operational Data Analytics (ODA), which encompasses a wide range of data analysis techniques, ML/AI efforts, tools, and visualizations. Published studies in ODA offer a variety of practical ways to inform HPC users, administrators, procurement managers, and other stakeholders. Uncertainty analysis, however, is rare in the related published literature. For instance, we identify only 1 out of 14 existing studies focused on job queue time prediction that investigates the uncertainty aspect of their proposed predictions. We recognize the utmost importance uncertainty quantification can have in such predictive analytics solutions, with consequences in how users interpret information they receive, and attempt to bridge this gap. With the goal of improving access to such insights, we develop a process for determining upper and lower bounds of the predicted queue times of a regression model at a specified confidence level. Our current research is focused on the uncertainty in predicting job queue times, yet our approach may be employed in predicting other metrics.
Enrichment Meter Dataset from High-Resolution Gamma Spectroscopy Measurements of U3O8 Enrichment Standards and UF6 Cylinder Wall Equivalents
The Enrichment Meter Principle (EMP) is the basis for a commonly used standard test method for the non-destructive assay of 235 U enrichment in bulk compounds [1]. The technique involves determining the net count rate in the direct 186 keV peak using medium or high energy gamma-ray spectrometry in a fixed geometry. With suitable correction for wall attenuation, compound type, rate loss (live time), and peaked background (if significant), the atom fraction of 235 U may be obtained from the counting rate from a linear relationship through the origin. The widespread use of this method for field verification of enrichment [2,3] together with the fact that the response function rests on fundamental physics considerations (i.e., is not represented by a convenient but arbitrary form) makes it an interesting example of uncertainty quantification, one in which one can expect a valid measurement model can be applied. When applied using NaI(Tl) and region of interest analysis, the technique is susceptible to both interference error and bias [2-4]. When implemented using high-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy, the spectrum interpretation is considerable simplified and more robust [5]. However, a practical challenge to studying the uncertainty budget of the EMP method (for example, to test linearity, extract wall corrections and so forth using modern methods) is the availability of quality experimental data that can be referenced and shared. To fill this gap, the research team undertook an experimental campaign [6]. A measurement campaign was conducted to produce high-resolution gamma spectroscopy enrichment meter data comparable to UF 6 cylinder measurements. The purpose of this report is to provide both an introduction to and quality assurance (QA) of the raw data produced. This report is intended for the analyst or researcher who uses the raw data. Unfortunately, the raw data (i.e., the spectra files) are too voluminous to include in this report but can be requested from Steven Croft of the Safeguards & Security Technology Group (scroft@ornl.gov 865-241-2834). The complete processed data are tabulated in Appendix A. The analysis techniques used to produce the QA data presented in this report [e.g., three regions-ofinterest (ROI) peak extraction and batch analysis processes] are not the most sophisticated techniques available; analysts are encouraged to reanalyze the raw data using more sensitive techniques and to improve upon the results presented here. With that being said, the analysis techniques used here are more than adequate to present and inspect the quality of the data.
From Exploration Flight Test-1 to Artemis II--A NASA Langley's Orion Aerosciences Overview
The Orion Aerosciences program at NASA Langley has played a central role in advancing the aerodynamic and aeroheating prediction capabilities required for the Orion crew vehicle’s return from deep space. This presentation provides a technical overview of aerosciences contributions spanning Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1), Artemis I, and the ongoing post-flight analysis of Artemis II. EFT-1 provided the first high-energy entry dataset for Orion, enabling critical validation of aerodynamic force and moment predictions, static and dynamic stability characteristics, and aeroheating environments at relevant flight Mach and Reynolds numbers. Flight-derived pressure data were used to refine the Flush Air Data System (FADS) methodology for atmospheric density reconstruction and to improve Best Estimated Trajectory (BET) solutions. The EFT-1 data also offered key insights into heat shield performance, including char layer recession, in-depth thermal response, and material retention behavior under flight conditions, informing updates to both thermal response models and uncertainty quantification practices. Building on EFT-1, Artemis I extended the database to true lunar-return conditions. Observations of heat shield performance, including localized char loss, bondline response, and recession variability, provided an unprecedented opportunity to reassess Thermal Protection System (TPS) and aeroheating modeling assumptions. Aerodynamic reconstruction efforts incorporated improved FADS calibration, enhanced atmospheric modeling, and refined force and moment databases to reduce trajectory and load uncertainties. Aeroheating comparisons between pre-flight predictions and flight data enabled targeted model updates, particularly in transitional flow environments and wake heating regions. For Artemis II, these lessons were systematically incorporated into the pre-flight prediction process. Updates included refined aerodynamic databases anchored to flight-validated corrections, improved density estimation and BET methodologies using enhanced database interpolation algorithm and FADS modeling, and revised aeroheating design environments informed by Artemis I material response observations. By the time of the workshop, Artemis II post-flight analysis will be underway, and preliminary findings will be presented where available, including early comparisons of aerodynamic reconstruction, atmospheric density estimation, and thermal protection system performance relative to updated predictions. Collectively, this body of work is a testament to the dedicated and multidisciplinary team whose sustained efforts have contributed to the program’s success and to the progressive maturation of Orion aerosciences modeling through numerical modeling, ground and flight data assimilation. The integrated advancement of aerodynamics, trajectory reconstruction, FADS-based density estimation, and aeroheating analysis has reduced predictive uncertainty and strengthened confidence for future crewed lunar and deep-space missions.
Copula-based Method to Generate Consistent Surface Pressures Under Uncertainty
This paper establishes a method to create surface pressure databases that allow for uncertainty quantification. Aerodynamic databases are critical products for launch vehicles and other aeronautical systems, and surface pressure databases are one such database that constains large quantities of data. The focus of this work is the relationship between the integrated force and moment data base and the surface pressure database. In particular, the work attempts to provide a method that maintains consistency between these two databases when accounting for uncertainty. The integrated force and moment database and surface pressure databases are constructed from CFD data which is high-density but low-trust. However, the force and moment database will often also include data from high-trust but low-density sources such as from wind tunnel experiments. This means that the quantified uncertainty of the force and moment database is higher quality as it includes this high fidelity wind tunnel data. This motivates the idea to use the force and moment database uncertainty when constructing the surface pressure database uncertainty. The method utilizes the statistical idea of a copula in order to generate surface pressures that match with uncertain integrated force and moment distributions as well as being consistent with known CFD data. This statistical consistency is quantified by using the Maximum Mean Discrepancy two-sample test. The predictive error of the method is also approximated using leave-one-out error estimation and the good overall performance of the method is presented using probability boxes in a simulated uncertainty scenario.