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At least 1,585 records · Page 88

Two-Stage Reinforcement Learning Policy Search for Grid-Interactive Building Control

This paper develops an intelligent grid-interactive building controller, which optimizes building operation during both normal hours and demand response (DR) events. To avoid costly on-demand computation and to adapt to non-linear building models, the controller utilizes reinforcement learning (RL) and makes real-time decisions based on a near-optimal control policy. Learning such a policy typically amounts to solving a hard non-convex optimization problem. We propose to address this problem with a novel global-local policy search method. In the first stage, an RL algorithm based on zero-order gradient estimation is leveraged to search for the optimal policy globally, due to its scalability and the potential to escape some poor performing local optima. The obtained policy is then fine-tuned locally to bring the first-stage solution closer to that of the original unsmoothed problem. Experiments on a simulated five-zone commercial building demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method over existing learning approaches. They also show that the learned control policy outperforms a pragmatic linear model predictive controller (MPC) and approaches the performance of an oracle MPC in testing scenarios. Using a state-of-the-art advanced computing system, we demonstrate that the controller can be learned and deployed within hours of training.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Detecting Peer-to-Peer Botnets in SCADA Systems

Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems monitor and control critical infrastructure such as the smart grid. As SCADA systems become increasingly interconnected and adopt more and more cyber-enabled components, the risks of cyber attacks become a major concern. Due to their decentralized organization, peer-to-peer (P2P) botnets are resilient to many existing takedown measures and can be exploited as an effective way to launch cyber attacks on SCADA systems. However, little work has been done to detect P2P botnets in SCADA systems, which carry traffic flows with characteristics significantly different from the Internet. In this paper, we design a P2P-botnet detection method for SCADA systems, leveraging built-in traffic monitoring capabilities of SCADA networking devices. The proposed method consists of two stages. In the first stage, we design a simple feature test to filter out non-P2P hosts, which significantly reduces the data volume for P2P-botnet identification. In the second stage, we jointly consider flow-based and connectivity-based features that effectively set apart bots from benign hosts. We propose to use unsupervised learning for P2P-botnet identification, which not only identifies known P2P botnets but also captures newly emerged ones. Our simulation results show that the proposed system achieves high detection rates with very few false positives. Furthermore, our evaluation shows that the proposed method can detect hosts running P2P SCADA applications that are infected by P2P bots.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Objective PDF-Shaping-Based Economic Dispatch for Power Systems with Intermittent Generation Sources via Simultaneous Mean and Variance Minimization

With the ever increased penetration of renewables in power grid, economic power dispatch faces a challenge in terms of min-imizing the generation cost which is increasingly affected by random factors and constraints subjected to random inputs. In this context, the cost functions are random for which the widely used mean value based minimization can only achieve limited profit gain. Indeed, as the probability density function (PDF) is a comprehensive measure of characteristics of any random varia-bles, the desired optimization should address the shaping of the PDF of the generation cost function rather just its mean value. Through a simple case study, this paper firstly reveals the long tail PDF shape of the cost function when the traditional mean-value based optimization is used. This is then followed by the de-velopment of a novel PDF-shaping-based method that optimizes both the mean and variance of the PDF of the cost function. It has been shown that the proposed approach can reshape the PDF of the generation cost function so as to make it as left and as narrow as possible, leading to a significant low risk for high generation cost. Simulation tests have been included to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach and encouraging results have been obtained.

intermittent generation sources, uncertainties, PD↗

Modular Staged Pressurized Oxy-Combustion (SPOC) Power Plant for Coal and Biomass – Integration of Combustor Boiler and DCC

Utilities and grid operators worldwide are under significant pressure to incorporate intermittent renewable sources while strategizing on how to maintain the necessary stability and reliability of the grid. The development of a power plant which will be capable of flexible operation to meet the needs of the grid as more intermittent sources like wind and solar energy are incorporated is key to maintain the reliability of the grid. Through the use of innovative and cutting-edge technologies that improve efficiency and reduce carbon emissions, and being small compared to today's conventional utility-scale power plants, the modular Staged, Pressurized Oxy-Combustion (SPOC) process envisioned by and under development at Washington University in St. Louis (WUSTL) has the potential to achieve these goals. Specifically, the process offers: 1) a modular plant design that allows for better operational flexibility; 2) the utilization of fuel-staging and pressurized oxy-combustion, resulting in smaller plant size, improved plant efficiency, and reduced costs for pollutant and CO2 removal compared to traditional power plants with post-combustion capture technology; and 3) the use of small modular boilers and pollutant removal units that can be constructed off-site leading to reduced capital costs for the plant. WUSTL is advancing the development of the critical components for the SPOC power plant, including the integrated combustor-boiler system and the direct contact cooler. To demonstrate the boiler convective section and to obtain critical data for commercial-scale pressurized boiler design, a simulated convective heat transfer boiler test section was designed and integrated with the combustor (radiant section). A direct contact cooler (DCC) was integrated with the combustor-boiler to demonstrate the dynamic operation of the integrated system and the performance of the DCC, including the efficiency for simultaneous removal of NOx and SOx. This talk will present an update on the evaluation of the critical components for system integration, including heat transfer data from the simulated boiler, scrubbing efficiency for the DCC under different operating conditions, and CFD modeling and validation for burner and boiler development.

Magalhaes, Duarte↗

Multigrid Strategies for Viscous Flow Solvers on Anisotropic Unstructured Meshes

Unstructured multigrid techniques for relieving the stiffness associated with high-Reynolds number viscous flow simulations on extremely stretched grids are investigated. One approach consists of employing a semi-coarsening or directional-coarsening technique, based on the directions of strong coupling within the mesh, in order to construct more optimal coarse grid levels. An alternate approach is developed which employs directional implicit smoothing with regular fully coarsened multigrid levels. The directional implicit smoothing is obtained by constructing implicit lines in the unstructured mesh based on the directions of strong coupling. Both approaches yield large increases in convergence rates over the traditional explicit full-coarsening multigrid algorithm. However, maximum benefits are achieved by combining the two approaches in a coupled manner into a single algorithm. An order of magnitude increase in convergence rate over the traditional explicit full-coarsening algorithm is demonstrated, and convergence rates for high-Reynolds number viscous flows which are independent of the grid aspect ratio are obtained. Further acceleration is provided by incorporating low-Mach-number preconditioning techniques, and a Newton-GMRES strategy which employs the multigrid scheme as a preconditioner. The compounding effects of these various techniques on speed of convergence is documented through several example test cases.

Movriplis, Dimitri J.↗

1:52 Scale Testing of the First US Commercial Scale Floating Wind Turbine, VolturnUS: Testing Overview and the Evolution of Scale Model Testing Methods

Over the past 6 years, the University of Maine (UMaine) has been an active contributor in research and scale-model testing of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs). This paper serves to share the evolution of UMaine’s scale-model testing pedigree by exploring the various test campaigns at a high level, culminating with the design validation of the VolturnUS floating platform. These model test campaigns have each provided key insights into the behavior of FOWT platforms as well as improving the ability to perform model tests of FOWTs. In 2011, the UMaine-led DeepCwind Consortium carried out 1/50-scale model tests of a generic tension leg platform (TLP), a semi-submersible (semi), and a spar-buoy (spar) floating platform at the Maritime Research Institute Netherlands (MARIN) test facility. The designs were Froude-scaled and supported a scaled version of the 5-MW National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) offshore research turbine. Data from these tests has been used extensively for numerical simulation validation efforts using NREL’s computer-aided engineering software FAST and laid the foundation for UMaine’s design efforts on VolturnUS. In 2013, UMaine conducted another test campaign at MARIN using the original semi-submersible from 2011 with an improved turbine as well as a 1:50-scale model of the VolturnUS concrete semi-submersible design. The improved DeepCwind semi-submersible data is currently being utilized in the validation of a large number of other analysis codes as part of the International Energy Agency’s OC5 project. In 2015, UMaine opened its own Wind/Wave test facility, the Alfond Wind/Wave Ocean Engineering Laboratory (W2). Utilizing this new facility, UMaine tested the 1:50-scale model DeepCwind semi-submersible, repeating the tests from MARIN, to validate the experimental equipment and procedures as well as demonstrate the capability of the W2. In 2016 UMaine carried out testing of a 1:52-scale model of the 100% design of the VolturnUS with a 6-MW topside as a final design validation to support the US Department of Energy-supported, full-scale Aqua Ventus demonstration project scheduled to be connected to the grid in 2019. A newly designed 6-MW scale model turbine was used in this test and the performance-matched turbine design methodology is described. Selected results from the test campaign and preliminary numerical comparisons are discussed as well as key lessons learned from the model test campaigns are presented.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Computational Investigation of an F-18 Aircraft in the High-Alpha Regime

One of the goals of NASA's High Alpha Technology Program is to provide flight-validated design methods for the high-angle-of-attack regime. This is an integrated effort utilizing computational simulations, wind tunnel experiments, and flight tests using the F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle (HARV). The dominant physics of the aircraft flows in the high alpha regime changes as the angle of attack is increased. At moderate angle of attack the flow is characterized by boundary layer separation and the formation of tight vortices. As the angle of attack is increased, these vortices break down producing unsteady wakes. With further increase in angle of attack, the, vortex breakdown moves progressively upstream until the entire flowfield becomes dominated by the unsteady wake. Previous computational work has demonstrated the ability to simulate flows about the F-18 HARV in the medium-to-high angle of attack range, where the flowfield is characterized by the vortex formation and subsequent breakdown. This paper extends the previous computations to include conditions of 45 degree angle of attack where the flowfield becomes dominated by the unsteady wake shed from the Leading Edge Extension (LEX), and regions of laminar and transitional flow appear on the fuselage forebody. A more complete surface geometry is utilized, which includes the features of the engine nacelle, inlet diffuser, and the boundary layer diverter duct. A volume grid sensitivity study was also performed to extend the accuracy of the results, most notably in the prediction of the LEX vortex breakdown position. This paper includes comparisons of computational results with both in-flight surface pressure measurements, and flow visualizations of the surface and off-surface particle trajectories.

Murman, Scott M.↗

A residual-based shock capturing scheme for the continuous/discontinuous spectral element solution of the 2D shallow water equations

The high-order numerical solution of the non-linear shallow water equations is susceptible to Gibbs oscillations in the proximity of strong gradients. In this paper, we tackle this issue by presenting a shock capturing model based on the numerical residual of the solution. Via numerical tests, we demonstrate that the model removes the spurious oscillations in the proximity of strong wave fronts while preserving their strength. Furthermore, for coarse grids, it prevents energy from building up at small wave-numbers. When applied to the continuity equation to stabilize the water surface, the addition of the shock capturing scheme does not affect mass conservation. We found that our model improves the continuous and discontinuous Galerkin solutions alike in the proximity of sharp fronts propagating on wet surfaces. Furthermore, in the presence of wet/dry interfaces, however, the model needs to be enhanced with the addition of an inundation scheme which, however, we do not address in this paper.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Unified Testing Platform to Mature Blockchain Applications for Grid Emulation Environments

Blockchain technology is a relatively novel technology that can be used to develop more decentralized, autonomous and tamper-evident solutions. A feature that can aid Transactive Energy Systems to reach their goals by enabling individual actors to communicate and reach consensus with other participants in a more decentralized fashion. However, technical barriers to evaluate and adopt this type of technology within the electrical domain still exist. To facilitate this task, BLOSEM Unified Testing Platform (UTP), a DOE-sponsored, multi-lab effort intends to accelerate the development of solutions by offering a common set of reusable services that can be used to interconnect existent grid tools with blockchain services. UTP is intended to serve as development platform that can provide application engineers with the technical means to evaluate potential blockchain solutions, by enabling them to concentrate on the actual application functionalities while at the same time abstracting the connectivity and performance measurement tasks. The use of BLOSEM UTP is further demonstrated by implementing two potential use cases that are intended to validate both the feasibility of implementing these applications as blockchain-based solutions while also demonstrating the features provided by UTP.

blockchain co-simulation↗

Long-term Spot Stability in the Post-common-envelope Binary QS Vir

We observed the post-common-envelope eclipsing binary with a white dwarf component, QS Vir, using the 1.88 m telescope of Kotammia Observatory in Egypt. The new observations were analyzed together with all multicolor light curves available online (sampling a period of 25 yr), using a full-feature binary system modeling software based on Roche geometry. This is the first time complete photometric modeling was done with most of these data. QS Vir is a detached system, with the red dwarf component underfilling its Roche lobe by a small margin. All light curves feature out-of-eclipse variability that is associated with ellipsoidal variation, mutual irradiation and irregularities in surface brightness of the tidally distorted and magnetically active red dwarf. We tested models with one, two, and three dark spots and found that one spot is sufficient to account for the light curve asymmetry in all data sets, although this does not rule out the presence of multiple spots. We also found that a single spotted model cannot fit light curves observed simultaneously in different filters. Instead, each filter requires a different spot configuration. To thoroughly explore the parameter space of spot locations, we devised a grid-search procedure and used it to find consistent solutions. Based on this, we conclude that the dark spot responsible for light curve distortions has been stable for the past 15 yr, after a major migration that happened between 1993 and 2002, possibly due to a flip-flop event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Block-Structured Adaptive Mesh Framework to Solve Radiation Transfer Equation in Irregular Embedded Geometries

Radiation transport arises in various scientific, industrial, and medical fields, and understanding its effect in applications is needed to make accurate predictions, safety assessments and performance optimizations. Solving the Radiation Transport Equation (RTE) is challenging due to its integro-differential nature, which involves both differential and integral terms. The differential term describes the change in radiation intensity due to absorption and emission, while the integral term accounts for scattering. The accurate modeling of radiation is further complicated in many applications due to the complex, irregular geometries. Various methods exist for solving the RTE, including the zonal, Monte Carlo, spherical harmonics, discrete ordinates, and finite volume methods. Traditional mesh-based approaches, which rely on structured or unstructured meshes, struggle with irregular geometries due to: a) the difficulty of conforming structured grids to irregular domains, b) challenges in enforcing boundary conditions correctly, and c) the additional computational cost of unstructured mesh methods. This work presents a second-order accurate method for solving the RTE in irregular geometries. The radiation intensity is discretized using the finite-volume method in both spatial and angular directions on regular Cartesian grid blocks. Leveraging the block-structured adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) framework provided by AMReX, our method refines the grid locally to reduce spatial discretization error, ensuring a converged numerical solution while minimizing computational costs elsewhere. A two-stage deferred correction approach is employed: First, a first-order discretization on grid blocks is solved using an algebraic multigrid method in HYPRE. Second, a correction term is applied explicitly to achieve second-order accuracy. The correction term is calculated by approximating the radiation flux on cell faces using a Total Variation Diminishing (TVD) scheme. This approach ensures quick convergence of the multigrid method while preserving higher-order accuracy of the numerical solution. Irregular geometries are resolved as embedded boundaries (EB), resulting in both cut cells and regular cells. In cut cells, we modify the fluxes using face fractions and incorporate additional contributions from EB boundary conditions. To ensure higher-order convergence near the EB interface, the correction term is modified by interpolating the radiation intensity to fictitious ghost points. The implementation takes advantage of modern supercomputers by leveraging AMReX’sMPI/X parallelization strategy where X can be MPI or a GPU accelerator including CUDA, HIP and DPC++. We validate our solver using classical test cases, both with and without EB, demonstrating accuracy and efficiency. Additionally, we analyze the impact of adaptive mesh refinement on solution accuracy and computational cost, highlighting the advantages of our approach for high-resolution radiation transport simulations.

computational fluid dynamics (CFD)↗

Low-Cost Radiant Heater for Rapid Response, High-Temperature Heating

High-temperature processing has an irreplaceable role in many research and industrial applications. Despite remarkable development spanning over a century, the pursuit of even higher thermal flux density and more rapid thermal transients has not slowed down. As part of the ongoing energy evolution, many industrial applications are transitioning from direct combustion of fossil fuels as primary energy sources to increasing electrification, capable of adapting to renewable power grids. Thus, there is an emerging need for electrical heaters that can replace burners and supply the heat demand, especially at the highest temperatures. In this study, we report on a radiant heater design that can achieve cyclic heating/cooling rates of up to 400 K min –1 and a temperature range in excess of 1,800 K, comparable to those of commercial infrared gold image furnaces, at high surface and volumetric power densities. The heater consists of a modular unit of incandescent tungsten filament and is enclosed in an evacuated ceramic envelope, chemically inert, tolerant of thermal shock, and impervious to gasses. The material and manufacture cost of such heaters, which is estimated at ~$0.05/W, is less than 0.03% of that for infrared gold image furnaces, which is at >$2/W. Tests of more than 10,000 demanding cycles (high temperature and high heating/cooling rate) over 350 h of total operational time and in different temperature ranges confirm the robust performance of radiant heater prototypes. The design is widely applicable to high-temperature reactor and furnace designs. In thermochemistry research and practice, these radiant heaters could offer multiple benefits compared to solar simulators, lasers, infrared gold furnaces, ceramic heaters, or direct concentration of solar input.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

FUN3D and USM3D Analysis of the 4th AIAA Propulsion Aerodynamics Workshop Nozzle Test Case

This work presents the results of FUN3D and USM3D analyses that were performed for the 4th AIAA Propulsion Aerodynamics Workshop. The workshop was separated into three sections that focus on internal duct flows, nozzle flows, and a special topic of interest. This paper focuses on the nozzle section while an accompanying paper discusses the analyses performed for the internal duct flow section. For the nozzle flow section, the participants were provided with two configurations consisting of a rectangular convergent nozzle with and without an aft-deck. User-generated grids were developed under the guidelines of the workshop for the present analyses. The results show that both solvers compare favorably to the experimental results for the baseline nozzle with the largest differences observed at the lower NPR values. Additionally, both solvers showed favorable agreement with the experimental data for the pressures on the surface of the aft-deck. However, neither solver was able to match the jet flow further downstream for the nozzle with aft-deck configuration. A turbulence model study was conducted to compare the two-equation SST model, SA-QCR model, and two-equation k-kL model (FUN3D only). The results show that the SA-QCR turbulence model was unable to match the experimental results downstream of the nozzle. The k-kL model was shown to better match the experimental data compared to the SST model for most cases simulated using the FUN3D flow solver. Suggestions for future workshops include gridding guidelines similar ion Workshop series for the grid refinement study and a reduction in scope to allow for more detailed exploration of the individual problems. rticipation by reducing time requirements

Bozeman, Michael D.↗

Evaluating E3SM Global Storm‐Resolving Model Simulations of Deep Convection: Insights From DP‐SCREAM During TRACER

Global Storm-Resolving Models (GSRMs) are becoming increasingly vital for advancing climate modeling and improving the prediction of extreme weather events. Houston, a coastal region frequently affected by deep convective storms, offers an ideal setting to evaluate the ability of GSRMs to simulate deep convection. This study assesses the performance of the Doubly Periodic Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM (Energy Exascale Earth System Model) Atmosphere Model (DP-SCREAM) using observations from the TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) campaign. DP-SCREAM effectively reproduces the diurnal cycles of clouds and precipitation, demonstrating much greater skill than the E3SM single column model. The DP-SCREAM is demonstrated to be applicable to coastal regions, partially due to the forcing data sets already capturing the influence of breezes. DP-SCREAM also replicates biases persistent in the global version of SCREAM: the underrepresentation of boundary layer shallow clouds, a lack of mid-level congestus clouds, and the popcorn convection, characterized by small and disorganized convective cells generating the strongest precipitation. To investigate these issues, two sensitivity experiments were conducted: increasing the mixing length and scaling up the buoyancy flux within the Simplified Higher Order Closure scheme. Increasing the mixing length improved mid-level congestus representation and reduced unrealistic early morning fog occurrence. Enhancing buoyancy flux only marginally improved the bias of underproduced big convective cells. In conclusion, an additional resolution sensitivity test at 0.5 km grid spacing demonstrated that a refined horizontal resolution alone is insufficient to resolve these biases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reduced Order Model to Predict Dispersion of Flammable Refrigerant into a Space

As the HVAC&R industry mobilizes to deploy more low-GWP refrigerants, relevant standards are being continually reviewed and updated. Those include the general safety standards ISO 5149 and ASHRAE 15, and the equipment standards IEC and UL. The standards systematically set the allowable maximum amount of refrigerant that should be used in different equipment types and different applications. To do so, they rely on predictions of how a leaked refrigerant mass will disperse into a space. Dispersion characteristics, such as total flammable volume and its residence time, determine the risk associated with the presence of the flammable refrigerant. The standards have included provisions for the use of flammable refrigerants for approximately two decades. They relied on limited analytical analyses and test cases in their development. Dispersion of a refrigerant into a space is complex. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) are the most accurate in predicting a given problem. However, CFD is computationally expensive and requires specialized expertise and resources and is not suitable for use by standards development working group as prediction tool. This paper presents the development of a reduced order model (ROM) that predicts the key dispersion characteristics relevant to the dispersion of a leaked refrigerant into a space for any combination of input variables. The inputs are the refrigerant release height, the total released refrigerant mass and its release flow rate, the refrigerant molecular weight, the ventilation flow rate, the floor area and height of the space, recirculation air flow rate, and the tightness of the space. The outputs are histograms of volume fraction of the room in prescribed concentration bins and the total mass of the refrigerant in each bin normalized by the total refrigerant charge at 13 prescribed simulation time stamps between 1 and 900 seconds. The ROM is constructed from a set of CFD simulations with carefully chosen combinations of input parameters. The selection if done using a multidimensional sparse grid which is a generalization of the classical tensor approach but offers additional flexibility and thus can be more carefully tuned towards a specific model. The tuning is done to improve the accuracy, measured in the difference between the output values of the ROM and the CFD model, while minimizing the computational cost, measured in number of CFD simulations which is orders of magnitude more expensive than the processing the training data.

Edwards, Dean↗

Advanced surrogate model for electron-scale turbulence in tokamak pedestals

We derive an advanced surrogate model for predicting turbulent transport at the edge of tokamaks driven by electron temperature gradient (ETG) modes. Our derivation is based on a recently developed sensitivity-driven sparse grid interpolation approach for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis at scale, which informs the set of parameters that define the surrogate model as a scaling law. Our model reveals that ETG-driven electron heat flux is influenced by the safety factor q, electron beta β e and normalized electron Debye length λ D , in addition to well-established parameters such as the electron temperature and density gradients. To assess the trustworthiness of our model's predictions beyond training, we compute prediction intervals using bootstrapping. The surrogate model's predictive power is tested across a wide range of parameter values, including within-distribution testing parameters (to verify our model) as well as out-of-bounds and out-of-distribution testing (to validate the proposed model). Overall, validation efforts show that our model competes well with, or can even outperform, existing scaling laws in predicting ETG-driven transport.

fusion plasma↗

Deep reinforcement learning based optimization for a tightly coupled nuclear renewable integrated energy system

New ways to integrate energy systems to maximize efficiency are being sought to meet carbon emissions goals. Nuclear-renewable integrated energy system (NR-IES) concepts are a leading solution that couples a nuclear power plant with renewable energy, hydrogen generation plants, and energy storage systems, such that thermal and electrical power are dispatchable to fulfill grid-flexibility requirements while also producing hydrogen and maximizing revenue. Here, this paper introduces a deep reinforcement learning (DRL)-based framework to address the complex decision-making tasks for NR-IES. The objective is to maximize revenue by generating and selling hydrogen and electricity simultaneously according to their time-varying prices while keeping the energy flow in the subsystems in balance. A Python-based simulator for a NR-IES concept has been developed to integrate with OpenAI Gym and Ray/RLlib to enable an efficient and flexible computational framework for DRL research and development. Three state-of-the-art DRL algorithms have been investigated, including two-delayed deep deterministic policy gradient (TD3), soft-actor critic (SAC), proximal policy optimization (PPO), to illustrate DRL’s superiority for controlling NR-IES by comparing it with a conventional control approach, particle swarm optimization (PSO). In this effort, PPO has shown more-stable performance and also better generalization capability than SAC and TD3. Comparisons with PSO have demonstrated that, on average, PPO can achieve 13.9% more mean episode returns from the training process and 29.4% more mean episode returns from the testing process when different hydrogen-production targets are applied.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Continental Scale Hydrostratigraphy: Comparing Geologically Informed Data Products to Analytical Solutions

Abstract This study synthesizes two different methods for estimating hydraulic conductivity (K) at large scales. We derive analytical approaches that estimate K and apply them to the contiguous United States. We then compare these analytical approaches to three‐dimensional, national gridded K data products and three transmissivity (T) data products developed from publicly available sources. We evaluate these data products using multiple approaches: comparing their statistics qualitatively and quantitatively and with hydrologic model simulations. Some of these datasets were used as inputs for an integrated hydrologic model of the Upper Colorado River Basin and the comparison of the results with observations was used to further evaluate the K data products. Simulated average daily streamflow was compared to daily flow data from 10 USGS stream gages in the domain, and annually averaged simulated groundwater depths are compared to observations from nearly 2000 monitoring wells. We find streamflow predictions from analytically informed simulations to be similar in relative bias and Spearman's rho to the geologically informed simulations. R ‐squared values for groundwater depth predictions are close between the best performing analytically and geologically informed simulations at 0.68 and 0.70 respectively, with RMSE values under 10 m. We also show that the analytical approach derived by this study produces estimates of K that are similar in spatial distribution, standard deviation, mean value, and modeling performance to geologically‐informed estimates. The results of this work are used to inform a follow‐on study that tests additional data‐driven approaches in multiple basins within the contiguous United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗