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Networked Microgrids for Improved Resilient Operation: A Case Study in Adjuntas Puerto Rico

This paper presents a case study of a network microgrid orchestrator designed to allow coordinated operation of microgrids. Through Control Hardware in the Loop (CHIL), the proposed microgrid orchestrator was validated using, as case study two community-owned microgrids in Adjuntas, Puerto Rico. These two microgrids in Adjuntas were designed to provide affordable and reliable access to electricity to 14 businesses located in the town square. In its current design, these two microgrids operate independently from each other. This paper studies how networking them would increase their resiliency metrics while operating as an island. A distributed optimization is implemented in the microgrid orchestrator due to its superior scalability compared to centralized approach as well as to maintain data privacy. Two operational modes are considered in this study to showcase the advantages of networking microgrids: a) normal island, and b) degraded island. CHIL simulations are performed to validate the proposed microgrid orchestrator. CHIL results show meaningful resiliency improvements obtained by networking microgrids during contingencies such as loss of PV generation.

Ferrari Maglia, Max↗

Identifying Bayesian optimal experiments for uncertain biochemical pathway models

Abstract Pharmacodynamic (PD) models are mathematical models of cellular reaction networks that include drug mechanisms of action. These models are useful for studying predictive therapeutic outcomes of novel drug therapies in silico. However, PD models are known to possess significant uncertainty with respect to constituent parameter data, leading to uncertainty in the model predictions. Furthermore, experimental data to calibrate these models is often limited or unavailable for novel pathways. In this study, we present a Bayesian optimal experimental design approach for improving PD model prediction accuracy. We then apply our method using simulated experimental data to account for uncertainty in hypothetical laboratory measurements. This leads to a probabilistic prediction of drug performance and a quantitative measure of which prospective laboratory experiment will optimally reduce prediction uncertainty in the PD model. The methods proposed here provide a way forward for uncertainty quantification and guided experimental design for models of novel biological pathways.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An improved multilevel optimization approach for the design of complex engineering systems

Multilevel optimization methods are being considered for the design of complex systems on distributed networks of computers or even parallel processors. An obstacle to the use of multilevel methods is that they can be computationally expensive because of the cycling necessary to account for the coupling between the subproblems. This research effort aims at increasing the efficiency of multilevel optimization by adapting two techniques that are widely used in conventional one-level optimization: constraint approximation and temporary constraint deletion. These improvements are implemented and tested on three-, ten- and 52-bar planar truss designs. The results show that for larger problems (approximately 100 design variables and larger), the cost of analysis dominates the total cost so that multilevel optimization is no more expensive than one-level optimization. If parallel processing is used or the analysis process itself is decomposed, then multilevel optimization stands to become more economical than one-level optimization.

Barthelemy, J.-F. M.↗

On the closedness and geometry of tensor network state sets

Tensor network states (TNS) are a powerful approach for the study of strongly correlated quantum matter. The curse of dimensionality is addressed by parametrizing the many-body state in terms of a network of partially contracted tensors. These tensors form a substantially reduced set of effective degrees of freedom. In practical algorithms, functionals like energy expectation values or overlaps are optimized over certain sets of TNS. Concerning algorithmic stability, it is important whether the considered sets are closed because, otherwise, the algorithms may approach a boundary point that is outside the TNS set and tensor elements diverge. Here we discuss the closedness and geometries of TNS sets, and we propose regularizations for optimization problems on non-closed TNS sets. We show that sets of matrix product states (MPS) with open boundary conditions, tree tensor network states, and the multiscale entanglement renormalization ansatz are always closed, whereas sets of translation-invariant MPS with periodic boundary conditions (PBC), heterogeneous MPS with PBC, and projected entangled pair states are generally not closed. The latter is done using explicit examples like the W state, states that we call two-domain states, and fine-grained versions thereof.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Techno-economic implications and cost of forecasting errors in solar PV power production using optimized deep learning models

Accurate solar Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is important for enhancing both the performance and economic feasibility of PV systems. This study evaluates several deep learning models, including Dense Neural Networks (DNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and a hybrid LSTMCNN model, for predicting PV power production one day in advance. Prior to optimization, the models exhibited relatively high errors, with the best model (DNN) achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 31.13 kW and a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 62.15 %. After employing Bayesian optimization, the LSTM-CNN model demonstrated the best performance, with the RMSE reduced to 9.79 kW and R 2 improved to 97.62 %, showcasing significant enhancement in predictive accuracy. Here, the economic evaluation considered three cases: rewards for underestimation (0.08 USD/kWh), no rewards, and penalties for both over-and underestimation (120 % of the utility tariff). In the rewards scenario, the LSTM-CNN model reduced the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) by 4 %, while in the penalty scenario, a backup diesel generator would have increased the LCOE by 49 %. Additionally, the LSTM-CNN model minimized financial losses, achieving the lowest penalties and maximizing net cash flow compared to other models, demonstrating its overall technical and economic superiority.

Deep learning↗

Joint optimization of electric bus charging infrastructure, vehicle scheduling, and charging management

High upfront costs of vehicles and charging infrastructure as well as the lack of knowledge related to infrastructure planning and electric bus system operation are major obstacles to the implementation of battery electric buses (BEBs). To tackle the obstacles and promote BEB adoption, a comprehensive optimization framework was developed to address the combined charging infrastructure planning, vehicle scheduling, and charging management problem for BEB systems, with the goal to minimize the total cost of ownership. The problem was formulated as a mixed-integer non-linear problem. A genetic algorithm-based approach was then proposed to solve the problem. Last, three alternative scenarios based on a sub-transit network in Salt Lake City, Utah, were analyzed and compared with the optimal scenario results in the numerical experiments. Our comparison results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and solution algorithm in determining a cost-efficient planning strategy for BEB systems.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Tandem synthesis of tetrahydroquinolines and identification of the reaction network by operando NMR

The study of the reaction mechanism and complex network for heterogeneously catalyzed tandem reactions is challenging but can guide reaction design and optimization. Here, we describe a case study using bifunctional metal–organic framework supported Pd nanoparticles (Pd/UiO-66(HCl)) for the one-pot tandem synthesis of substituted tetrahydroquinolines via the Claisen–Schmidt condensation and reductive intramolecular cyclization. The directly observed evolution of intermediates and products, including reactive species containing hydroxylamine group and unstable intermediate 2-phenyl-3,4-dihydroquinoline, was enabled by operando magic angle spinning nuclear magnetic resonance studies under 50 bar H 2 . The reaction network of the tandem reaction is deduced based on reaction kinetic information obtained from the operando study. The optimized procedure was applied to various acetophenone and nitrobenzaldehyde derivatives carrying different functional groups, and eight valuable substituted tetrahydroquinolines were obtained in moderate to good yields. This work provides a molecular-level understanding of the catalytic system and brings up new opportunities for efficient and sustainable synthesis of medicinally relevant building blocks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Estimation of the global average temperature with optimally weighted point gauges

This paper considers the minimum mean squared error (MSE) incurred in estimating an idealized Earth's global average temperature with a finite network of point gauges located over the globe. We follow the spectral MSE formalism given by North et al. (1992) and derive the optimal weights for N gauges in the problem of estimating the Earth's global average temperature. Our results suggest that for commonly used configurations the variance of the estimate due to sampling error can be reduced by as much as 50%.

Hardin, James W.↗

Technology developments integrating a space network communications testbed

As future manned and robotic space explorations missions involve more complex systems, it is essential to verify, validate, and optimize such systems through simulation and emulation in a low cost testbed environment. The goal of such a testbed is to perform detailed testing of advanced space and ground communications networks, technologies, and client applications that are essential for future space exploration missions. We describe the development of new technologies enhancing our Multi-mission Advanced Communications Hybrid Environment for Test and Evaluation (MACHETE) that enables its integration in a distributed space communications testbed. MACHETE combines orbital modeling, link analysis, and protocol and service modeling to quantify system performance based on comprehensive considerations of different aspects of space missions.

hybrid simulations↗

Technology Developments Integrating a Space Network Communications Testbed

As future manned and robotic space explorations missions involve more complex systems, it is essential to verify, validate, and optimize such systems through simulation and emulation in a low cost testbed environment. The goal of such a testbed is to perform detailed testing of advanced space and ground communications networks, technologies, and client applications that are essential for future space exploration missions. We describe the development of new technologies enhancing our Multi-mission Advanced Communications Hybrid Environment for Test and Evaluation (MACHETE) that enable its integration in a distributed space communications testbed. MACHETE combines orbital modeling, link analysis, and protocol and service modeling to quantify system performance based on comprehensive considerations of different aspects of space missions. It can simulate entire networks and can interface with external (testbed) systems. The key technology developments enabling the integration of MACHETE into a distributed testbed are the Monitor and Control module and the QualNet IP Network Emulator module. Specifically, the Monitor and Control module establishes a standard interface mechanism to centralize the management of each testbed component. The QualNet IP Network Emulator module allows externally generated network traffic to be passed through MACHETE to experience simulated network behaviors such as propagation delay, data loss, orbital effects and other communications characteristics, including entire network behaviors. We report a successful integration of MACHETE with a space communication testbed modeling a lunar exploration scenario. This document is the viewgraph slides of the presentation.

hybrid simulation↗

Combined Retrievals of Boreal Forest Fire Aerosol Properties with a Polarimeter and Lidar

Absorbing aerosols play an important, but uncertain, role in the global climate. Much of this uncertainty is due to a lack of adequate aerosol measurements. While great strides have been made in observational capability in the previous years and decades, it has become increasingly apparent that this development must continue. Scanning polarimeters have been designed to help resolve this issue by making accurate, multi-spectral, multi-angle polarized observations. This work involves the use of the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP). The RSP was designed as the airborne prototype for the Aerosol Polarimetery Sensor (APS), which was due to be launched as part of the (ultimately failed) NASA Glory mission. Field observations with the RSP, however, have established that simultaneous retrievals of aerosol absorption and vertical distribution over bright land surfaces are quite uncertain. We test a merger of RSP and High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) data with observations of boreal forest fire smoke, collected during the Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS). During ARCTAS, the RSP and HSRL instruments were mounted on the same aircraft, and validation data were provided by instruments on an aircraft flying a coordinated flight pattern. We found that the lidar data did indeed improve aerosol retrievals using an optimal estimation method, although not primarily because of the constraints imposed on the aerosol vertical distribution. The more useful piece of information from the HSRL was the total column aerosol optical depth, which was used to select the initial value (optimization starting point) of the aerosol number concentration. When ground based sun photometer network climatologies of number concentration were used as an initial value, we found that roughly half of the retrievals had unrealistic sizes and imaginary indices, even though the retrieved spectral optical depths agreed within uncertainties to independent observations. The convergence to an unrealistic local minimum by the optimal estimator is related to the relatively low sensitivity to particles smaller than 0.1 ( m) at large optical thicknesses. Thus, optimization algorithms used for operational aerosol retrievals of the fine mode size distribution, when the total optical depth is large, will require initial values generated from table look-ups that exclude unrealistic size/complex index mixtures. External constraints from lidar on initial values used in the optimal estimation methods will also be valuable in reducing the likelihood of obtaining spurious retrievals.

Knobelspiesse, K.↗

A Survey of Mathematical Structures for Lunar Networks

To sustain the current and increasing accessibility of space, a scalable communications infrastructure (i.e. the Solar System Internet, SSI) is necessary. The goal of this paper is to begin the discovery of the fundamental underlying mathematical structure of space networks to help the research community harness these structures for algorithm development and optimization. To ensure the applicability of the research, the approaches are considered through the lens of simulated scenarios inspired by the Artemis Back-to-the-Moon mission set for 2024. We note that any approach to an SSI must fit under the umbrella of Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN), due to celestial mobility, high link latencies, high variance in link latencies, disconnections, lack of end-to-end paths, and so on. These difficulties are exacerbated by the fact that the underlying structure of a space network is a time-evolving network and may experience multiple discontinuities in its topology. In this paper we propose several novel approaches to a mathematical foundation for Delay Tolerant Networking Theory that fall outside the traditional scope of temporal network theory. These techniques include methods from Topological Data Analysis, Dynamic Graph Analysis, Applied Algebraic Geometry, Probability Theory, and Game Theory. Some of these methods include tools adapted to the study of dynamic metric spaces, such as zigzag persistent homology and their higher parameter analogs. We find that several of these methods target desired engineering outcomes such as discovery and automatic sub-netting. While each approach is theoretical, they are also algorithmic in nature and offer immediate practical applications. The paper concludes with comparisons of the various methods along with suggestions for future work.

Delay tolerant networking↗

Separation-Compliant, Optimal Routing and Control of Scheduled Arrivals in a Terminal Airspace

We address the problem of navigating a set (fleet) of aircraft in an aerial route network so as to bring each aircraft to its destination at a specified time and with minimal distance separation assured between all aircraft at all times. The speed range, initial position, required destination, and required time of arrival at destination for each aircraft are assumed provided. Each aircraft's movement is governed by a controlled differential equation (state equation). The problem consists in choosing for each aircraft a path in the route network and a control strategy so as to meet the constraints and reach the destination at the required time. The main contribution of the paper is a model that allows to recast this problem as a decoupled collection of problems in classical optimal control and is easily generalized to the case when inertia cannot be neglected. Some qualitative insight into solution behavior is obtained using the Pontryagin Maximum Principle. Sample numerical solutions are computed using a numerical optimal control solver. The proposed model is first step toward increasing the fidelity of continuous time control models of air traffic in a terminal airspace. The Pontryagin Maximum Principle implies the polygonal shape of those portions of the state trajectories away from those states in which one or more aircraft pair are at minimal separation. The model also confirms the intuition that, the narrower the allowed speed ranges of the aircraft, the smaller the space of optimal solutions, and that an instance of the optimal control problem may not have a solution at all (i.e., no control strategy that meets the separation requirement and other constraints).

transportation network↗

State-of-the-Art Techniques for Large-Scale Stochastic Unit Commitment

Recent advances in deterministic unit commitment, both formulaic and algorithmic, along with modern algorithmic approaches for stochastic programming, have enabled the solution of stochastic unit commitment problems with hundreds of scenarios on large-scale transmission networks. In this presentation, we will give an overview of these methods, including lazy transmission constraint generation, lower-bounding techniques, and heuristics, all of which can be executed in concert with customized decomposition approaches for optimization under uncertainty. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these techniques on the TAMU Texas7K synthetic transmission network, leveraging realistic high-resolution forecasts based on NREL renewable resource availability data. The software leveraged for these demonstrations is available via the open-source software packages EGRET (for electrical grid optimization) and mpi-sppy (for optimization under uncertainty).

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗

Analytics-at-scale of Sensor Data for Digital Monitoring in Nuclear Plants (3 rd Annual Report)

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This report primarily focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 ± 0.014, 0.0026 ± 0, and 0.063 ± 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure. This report summarizes the Fiscal Year 2021 research progress encompassing the (1) data cleaning and feature selection necessary for ML applications; (2) development of short-term forecasting models to predict future plant process parameters for both single and multiple time steps ahead; and (3) validation of the feature selection methods and short-term forecasting models given new data from different systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Development of Short-Term Forecasting Models Using Plant Asset Data and Feature Selection

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This paper focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 +- 0.014, 0.0026 +- 0, and 0.063 +- 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Insights into Constraining Rate Coefficients in Fuel Oxidation Mechanisms Using Genetic Algorithm Optimization

Accurate fuel oxidation mechanisms can enable predictive capabilities that aid in advancing combustion technologies. High-level computational kinetics can yield reasonable rate coefficients with uncertainties, in some cases, below a factor of 2. Computed rate coefficients can be constrained further by optimizing against experimental data. Here, we explore the application of genetic algorithm (GA) optimization to constrain computed rate coefficients in complex fuel oxidation mechanisms in conjunction with temperature-dependent species mole fractions from jet-stirred reactor (JSR) measurements. Cyclohexane is a model candidate for understanding the reactivity of cyclic fuels. In this work, we optimize the rate coefficients of the most recent literature cyclohexane mechanism, which incorporates theoretically computed rate coefficients for the reaction networks stemming from the first and second O 2 addition pathways, against the experimental results of two separate literature JSR studies. Optimization consistency is evaluated by carrying out three GA optimizations: fitting to the temperature-dependent species mole fractions in each JSR experiment separately and simultaneously fitting the species mole fractions in both experiments. Local sensitivity analyses are used to identify five influential low-temperature oxidation reactions for optimization. Although the three optimizations do not yield identical rate coefficients, the direction of change in all five rate coefficients is consistent among the three optimizations. Performance of the models from the three optimizations is assessed against literature ignition delay times with differences in the level of agreement observed among the different optimizations. In conclusion, comparisons are made with our recent optimization work of a cyclopentane oxidation master-equation model against time-resolved species concentrations, and insights and improvements of the strategy for constraining rate coefficients using GA optimization are discussed.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

LEO Download Capacity Analysis for a Network of Adaptive Array Ground Stations

To lower costs and reduce latency, a network of adaptive array ground stations, distributed across the United States, is considered for the downlink of a polar-orbiting low earth orbiting (LEO) satellite. Assuming the X-band 105 Mbps transmitter of NASA s Earth Observing 1 (EO-1) satellite with a simple line-of-sight propagation model, the average daily download capacity in bits for a network of adaptive array ground stations is compared to that of a single 11 m dish in Poker Flats, Alaska. Each adaptive array ground station is assumed to have multiple steerable antennas, either mechanically steered dishes or phased arrays that are mechanically steered in azimuth and electronically steered in elevation. Phased array technologies that are being developed for this application are the space-fed lens (SFL) and the reflectarray. Optimization of the different boresight directions of the phased arrays within a ground station is shown to significantly increase capacity; for example, this optimization quadruples the capacity for a ground station with eight SFLs. Several networks comprising only two to three ground stations are shown to meet or exceed the capacity of the big dish, Cutting the data rate by half, which saves modem costs and increases the coverage area of each ground station, is shown to increase the average daily capacity of the network for some configurations.

Ingram, Mary Ann↗