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At least 1,585 records · Page 88

Putting Data to Work: Using Building Energy Performance Data to Expand the Market for Energy Efficiency in Buildings

An increasing number of state and local jurisdictions are implementing building performance reporting laws, which generate large quantities of useful data on the characteristics and resource consumption of the building stock. Yet, to realize the potential of these policies, the data must not only be disclosed, but put to work to drive energy savings. Under a three-year pilot, Washington DC (DC), New York City (NYC) and their partners are pioneering the use of data from building performance reporting in energy efficiency programs. To minimize the administrative burden of managing, combining, and sharing these data sets, the cities are utilizing the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) open-source Standard Energy Efficiency Data (SEED) Platform. The Putting Data to Work project team is working with efficiency program administrators to develop and implement new and innovative ways in which the data collected through benchmarking, energy audits, and related policies can be used to improve energy policies and planning, unlock data directly for market use, scale-up the market for energy efficiency services, drive competition, better target utility incentive programs, and inform measurement and verification. This paper details achievements and key findings in DC and NYC to date, including the importance of high compliance, data quality, and data cleansing in using the information collected; methods that the cities are using to apply data to drive maximum energy efficiency; and the importance of inter- and intra-agency collaboration in program success. We also outline the path forward and detail expected outcomes and scalability of project activities.

Beddingfield, Erin↗

Stratification of Landsat data by clustering

Full realization of the potential advantages of the synoptic coverage provided by Landsat will require the development and use of data analysis techniques which take into account the large variation and diversity of patterns found over many Landsat scenes. Stratification of the scene into units which are internally homogeneous is recommended as a first step in the analysis of data for whole or multiple frames of Landsat data. The use of clustering as an objective and efficient method of dividing scenes into areas which are spectrally similar (strata) is discussed and initial results, including classification performances and comparisons of spectral strata with major physical factors, are presented.

Bauer, M. E.↗

An interactive machine learning platform for analyzing multi-particle coincidence data from cold target recoil ion momentum spectroscopy

We present SCULPT (Supervised Clustering and Uncovering Latent Patterns with Training), a comprehensive software platform for analyzing tabulated high-dimensional multi-particle coincidence data from Cold Target Recoil Ion Momentum Spectroscopy (COLTRIMS) experiments. The software addresses critical challenges in modern momentum spectroscopy by integrating advanced machine learning techniques with physics-informed analysis in an interactive web-based environment. SCULPT implements uniform manifold approximation and projection for non-linear dimensionality reduction to reveal correlations in high-dimensional data. We also discuss potential extensions to deep autoencoders for feature learning and genetic programming for automated discovery of physically meaningful observables. A novel adaptive confidence scoring system provides quantitative reliability assessments by evaluating user-selected clustering quality metrics with predefined weights that reflect each metric’s robustness. The platform features configurable molecular profiles for different experimental systems, interactive visualization with selection tools, and comprehensive data filtering capabilities. Utilizing a subset of SCULPT’s capabilities, we analyze photo-double-ionization data measured using the COLTRIMS method for three-body dissociation of the D 2 O molecule, revealing distinct fragmentation channels and their correlations with physics parameters. The software’s modular architecture and web-based implementation make it accessible to the broader atomic and molecular physics community, significantly reducing the time required for complex multi-dimensional analyses. This opens the door to finding and isolating rare events exhibiting non-linear correlations on the fly during experimental measurements, which can help steer exploration and improve the efficiency of experiments.

Artificial neural networks↗

Advanced Small Modular Reactor Economics Status Report

This report describes the data collection work performed for an advanced small modular reactor (AdvSMR) economics analysis activity at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The methodology development and analytical results are described in separate, stand-alone documents as listed in the references. The economics analysis effort for the AdvSMR program combines the technical and fuel cycle aspects of advanced (non-light water reactor [LWR]) reactors with the market and production aspects of SMRs. This requires the collection, analysis, and synthesis of multiple unrelated and potentially high-uncertainty data sets from a wide range of data sources. Further, the nature of both economic and nuclear technology analysis requires at least a minor attempt at prediction and prognostication, and the far-term horizon for deployment of advanced nuclear systems introduces more uncertainty. Energy market uncertainty, especially the electricity market, is the result of the integration of commodity prices, demand fluctuation, and generation competition, as easily seen in deregulated markets. Depending on current or projected values for any of these factors, the economic attractiveness of any power plant construction project can change yearly or quarterly. For long-lead construction projects such as nuclear power plants, this uncertainty generates an implied and inherent risk for potential nuclear power plant owners and operators. The uncertainty in nuclear reactor and fuel cycle costs is in some respects better understood and quantified than the energy market uncertainty. The LWR-based fuel cycle has a long commercial history to use as its basis for cost estimation, and the current activities in LWR construction provide a reliable baseline for estimates for similar efforts. However, for advanced systems, the estimates and their associated uncertainties are based on forward-looking assumptions for performance after the system has been built and has achieved commercial operation. Advanced fuel materials and fabrication costs have large uncertainties based on complexities of operation, such as contact-handled fuel fabrication versus remote handling, or commodity availability. Thus, this analytical work makes a good faith effort to quantify uncertainties and provide qualifiers, caveats, and explanations for the sources of these uncertainties. The overall result is that this work assembles the necessary information and establishes the foundation for future analyses using more precise data as nuclear technology advances.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Time series methods for the analysis of soundscapes and other cyclical ecological data

Biodiversity monitoring has entered an era of ‘big data’, exemplified by a near-continuous collection of sounds, images, chemical and other signals from organisms in diverse ecosystems. Such data streams have the potential to help identify new threats, assess the effectiveness of conservation interventions, as well as generate new ecological insights. However, appropriate analytical methods are often still missing, particularly with respect to characterizing cyclical temporal patterns. Here, we present a framework for characterizing and analysing ecological responses that represent nonstationary, complex temporal patterns and demonstrate the value of using Fourier transforms to decorrelate continuous data points. In our example, we use a framework based on three approaches (spectral analysis, magnitude squared coherence, and principal component analysis) to characterize differences in tropical forest soundscapes within and across sites and seasons in Gabon. By reconstructing the underlying, cyclic behaviour of the soundscape for each site, we show how one can identify circadian patterns in acoustic activity. Soundscapes in the dry season had a complex diel cycle, requiring multiple harmonics to represent daily variation, while in the wet season there was less variance attributable to the daily cyclic patterns. Our framework can be applied to most continuous, or near-continuous ecological data collected at a fine temporal resolution, allowing ecologists to explore patterns of temporal autocorrelation at multiple levels for biologically meaningful trends. Such methods will become indispensable as biological big data are used to understand the impact of anthropogenic pressures on biodiversity and to inform efforts to mitigate them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Misclassification in Workers’ Telecommuting Frequency Choices Using a Generalized Extreme Value Model

Telecommuting frequency is a response variable collected in travel surveys and is, therefore, prone to errors leading to mismeasurements or misclassification. Misclassification of explanatory variables is a common risk when using statistical modeling techniques. We define “misclassification” as a response reported or recorded in the wrong category; for example, a variable is recorded as a 1 when it should be 0. Here, in this context, this study aims to develop a statistical model to analyze telecommuting data which accounts for potential misclassification errors by building on existing literature in econometrics. The empirical analysis was undertaken using the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the general extreme value (GEV) models available in the literature. Specifically, the frequency of telecommuting days was analyzed using the negative binomial (NB) model recast as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. By nature—and consistent with other studies—NHTS data are prone to errors that can be classified as intentional or unintentional misinformation provided by the person being interviewed. Ignoring these errors while modeling telecommuting frequencies using standard discrete count models can result in biased parameter estimates. The misclassification parameter was calculated for both over-reporting and under-reporting scenarios. The misclassification errors can be as high as 14% over-reported and 10% under-reported, particularly for the neighboring values. Statistical fit comparison between the models shows that models that ignore misclassification have worse data fit and biased parameter estimates with significant policy implications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A fully Bayesian method for jointly fitting instrumental calibration and X-ray spectral models

Owing to a lack of robust principled methods, systematic instrumental uncertainties have generally been ignored in astrophysical data analysis despite wide recognition of the importance of including them. Ignoring calibration uncertainty can cause bias in the estimation of source model parameters and can lead to underestimation of the variance of these estimates. We previously introduced a pragmatic Bayesian method to address this problem. The method is 'pragmatic' in that it introduced an ad hoc technique that simplified computation by neglecting the potential information in the data for narrowing the uncertainty for the calibration product. Following that work, we use a principal component analysis to efficiently represent the uncertainty of the effective area of an X-ray (or γ-ray) telescope. Here, however, we leverage this representation to enable a principled, fully Bayesian method that coherently accounts for the calibration uncertainty in high-energy spectral analysis. In this setting, the method is compared with standard analysis techniques and the pragmatic Bayesian method. The advantage of the fully Bayesian method is that it allows the data to provide information not only for estimation of the source parameters but also for the calibration product—here the effective area, conditional on the adopted spectral model. In this way, it can yield more accurate and efficient estimates of the source parameters along with valid estimates of their uncertainty. Provided that the source spectrum can be accurately described by a parameterized model, this method allows rigorous inference about the effective area by quantifying which possible curves are most consistent with the data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Low reheating temperatures in monomial and binomial inflationary models

We investigate the allowed range of reheating temperature values in light of the Planck 2015 results and the recent joint analysis of Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) data from the BICEP2/Keck Array and Planck experiments, using monomial and binomial inflationary potentials. While the well studied ϕ{sup 2} inflationary potential is no longer favored by current CMB data, as well as ϕ{sup p} with p>2, a ϕ{sup 1} potential and canonical reheating (w{sub re}=0) provide a good fit to the CMB measurements. In this last case, we find that the Planck 2015 68% confidence limit upper bound on the spectral index, n{sub s}, implies an upper bound on the reheating temperature of T{sub re}≲6×10{sup 10} GeV, and excludes instantaneous reheating. The low reheating temperatures allowed by this model open the possibility that dark matter could be produced during the reheating period instead of when the Universe is radiation dominated, which could lead to very different predictions for the relic density and momentum distribution of WIMPs, sterile neutrinos, and axions. We also study binomial inflationary potentials and show the effects of a small departure from a ϕ{sup 1} potential. We find that as a subdominant ϕ{sup 2} term in the potential increases, first instantaneous reheating becomes allowed, and then the lowest possible reheating temperature of T{sub re}=4 MeV is excluded by the Planck 2015 68% confidence limit.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Modeling, Load Profile Validation, and Assessment of Solar-Rooftop Energy Potential for Low-and-Moderate-Income Communities in the Caribbean

This document presents the modeling of load profile consumption for Low-and-Moderate-Income (LMI) communities in the Caribbean Islands, as well as an assessment of the solar-rooftop energy potential. In this work, real data, together with synthetic and electricity bill data, were collected to validate and improve the load profile models. The solar-rooftop energy potential was obtained through a National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) software called the PVWatts calculator, and mathematical analysis. The analysis of rooftop solar energy potential was conducted to enable the minimum size of solar power systems to fit the energy demand in the community. The results obtained allow estimation of the capacity of the energy system for each house or an entire community.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Optimizing colormaps with consideration for color vision deficiency to enable accurate interpretation of scientific data

Color vision deficiency (CVD) affects more than 4% of the population and leads to a different visual perception of colors. Though this has been known for decades, colormaps with many colors across the visual spectra are often used to represent data, leading to the potential for misinterpretation or difficulty with interpretation by someone with this deficiency. Until the creation of the module presented here, there were no colormaps mathematically optimized for CVD using modern color appearance models. While there have been some attempts to make aesthetically pleasing or subjectively tolerable colormaps for those with CVD, our goal was to make optimized colormaps for the most accurate perception of scientific data by as many viewers as possible. We developed a Python module, cmaputil , to create CVD-optimized colormaps, which imports colormaps and modifies them to be perceptually uniform in CVD-safe colorspace while linearizing and maximizing the brightness range. The module is made available to the science community to enable others to easily create their own CVD-optimized colormaps. In this paper, we present an example CVD-optimized colormap created with this module that is optimized for viewing by those without a CVD as well as those with red-green colorblindness. This colormap, cividis, enables nearly-identical visual-data interpretation to both groups, is perceptually uniform in hue and brightness, and increases in brightness linearly.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Use of Sage Water Vapor Data for Investigating Climate Change Issues

SAGE water vapor data has proven valuable for addressing several of the important issues in climate change research. It has been used to investigate how the upper troposphere water vapor responds to warming and convection, a key question in understanding the water vapor feedback to anthropogenic global warming. In the case of summer versus winter differences, SAGE results showed that the upper tropospheric relative humidity remained approximately constant; this result was in general agreement with how a GCM handled the seasonal difference, and gave credence to the argument that the GCM was not overestimating the water vapor feedback associated with convection. In addition, the convection-water vapor relationship was investigated further using SAGE water vapor and ISCCP cloud data. The results showed that upper tropospheric drying did appear to occur simultaneously with deep convective events in the tropics, only to be replaced by moistening a few hours later, associated (most likely) with the reevaporation of moisture from anvil clouds. The total effect was, again, a moistening of the upper troposphere associated with convection. Calculation of the actual trends in upper tropospheric moisture is a potential goal for SAGE data usage; trends calculated with radiosonde data, or instruments calibrated with radiosonde data have the problem of the effect of changing radiosonde instruments. SAGE data have in effect been used to compare different radiosondes through comparisons, and could continue to do so. SAGE 3 should also help clarify the absolute accuracy of SAGE retrievals in the troposphere. and its consequences. Model results show that water vapor increases can help explain the observations of stratospheric cooling, along with increasing C02 and ozone reduction. SAGE has been shown to provide trends similar to those of some other satellite and in situ retrievals, with increasing water vapor over time. However, SAGE is impacted by aerosol contamination which must be removed from the data; approaches used in the past will be reviewed. The SAGE water vapor errors, if taken literally, would make it hard to justify using SAGE data for such trends, and the error bars must be investigated. Stratospheric water vapor increases, like tropospheric increases, would lead to noticeable warming at the surface, and their changes must be quantified.

Rind, D.↗

Encyclopædia curvatonis

We investigate whether the predictions of single-field models of inflation are robust under the introduction of additional scalar degrees of freedom, and whether these extra fields change the potentials for which the data show the strongest preference. We study the situation where an extra light scalar field contributes both to the total curvature perturbations and to the reheating kinematic properties. Ten reheating scenarios are identified, and all necessary formulas allowing a systematic computation of the predictions for this class of models are derived. They are implemented in the public library ASPIC, which contains more than 75 single-field potentials. This paves the way for a forthcoming full Bayesian analysis of the problem. A few representative examples are displayed and discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Combined Computer Vision and Deep Learning Approach for Rapid Drone-Based Optical Characterization of Parabolic Troughs

Optical accuracy is a primary driver of parabolic trough concentrating solar power (CSP) plant performance, but can be damaged by wind loads, gravity, error during installation, and regular plant operation. Collecting and analyzing optical measurements over an entire operating parabolic trough plant is difficult, given the large scale of typical installations. Distant Observer, a software tool developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, uses images of the absorber tube reflected in the collector mirror to measure both surface slope in the parabolic mirror and offset of the absorber tube from the ideal focal point. This technology has been adapted for fast data collection using low-cost commercial drones, but until recently still required substantial human labor to process large amounts of data. A new method leveraging advanced deep learning and computer vision tools can drastically reduce the time required to process images. This new method addresses the primary analysis bottleneck, identifying featureless, reflective mirror corner points to a high degree of accuracy. Recent work has shown promising results using computer vision methods. The combined deep learning and computer vision approach presented here proved highly effective and has the potential to further automate data collection and analysis, making the tool more robust. The method presented in this paper automatically identified 74.3% of mirror corners within 2 pixels of their manually marked counterparts and 91.9% within 3 pixels. This level of accuracy is sufficient for practical Distant Observer analysis within a target uncertainty. A commercial drone collected video of over 100 parabolic trough modules at an operating CSP plant to demonstrate the deep learning and computer vision method's usefulness in processing large amounts of data. These troughs were successfully analyzed using Distant Observer, paired with the new deep learning and computer vision algorithm, and can provide plant operators and trough designers with valuable insight about plant performance, operating strategies, and plant-wide optical error trends.

computer vision↗

Aliased tidal errors in TOPEX/POSEIDON sea surface height data

Alias periods and wavelengths for the M(sub 2, S(sub 2), N(sub 2), K(sub 1), O(sub 1), and P(sub 1) tidal constituents are calculated for TOPEX/POSEIDON. Alias wavelenghts calculated in previous studies are shown to be in error, and a correct method is presented. With the exception of the K(sub 1) constituent, all of these tidal aliases for TOPEX/POSEIDON have periods shorter than 90 days and are likely to be confounded with long-period sea surface height signals associated with real ocean processes. In particular, the correspondence between the periods and wavelengths of the M(sub 2) alias and annual baroclinic Rossby waves that plagued Geosat sea surface height data is avoided. The potential for aliasing residual tidal errors in smoothed estimates of sea surface height is calculated for the six tidal constituents. The potential for aliasing the lunar tidal constituents M(sub 2), N(sub 2) and O(sub 1) fluctuates with latitude and is different for estimates made at the crossovers of ascending and descending ground tracks than for estimates at points midway between crossovers. The potential for aliasing the solar tidal constituents S(sub 2), K(sub 1) and P(sub 1) varies smoothly with latitude. S(sub 2) is strongly aliased for latitudes within 50 degress of the equator, while K(sub 1) and P(sub 1) are only weakly aliased in that range. A weighted least squares method for estimating and removing residual tidal errors from TOPEX/POSEIDON sea surface height data is presented. A clear understanding of the nature of aliased tidal error in TOPEX/POSEIDON data aids the unambiguous identification of real propagating sea surface height signals. Unequivocal evidence of annual period, westward propagating waves in the North Atlantic is presented.

Schlax, Michael G.↗

Digital Model-Based Engineering: Expectations, Prerequisites, and Challenges of Infusion

Digital model-based engineering (DMbE) is the use of digital artifacts, digital environments, and digital tools in the performance of engineering functions. DMbE is intended to allow an organization to progress from documentation-based engineering methods to digital methods that may provide greater flexibility, agility, and efficiency. The term 'DMbE' was developed as part of an effort by the Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) Infusion Task team to identify what government organizations might expect in the course of moving to or infusing MBSE into their organizations. The Task team was established by the Interagency Working Group on Engineering Complex Systems, an informal collaboration among government systems engineering organizations. This Technical Memorandum (TM) discusses the work of the MBSE Infusion Task team to date. The Task team identified prerequisites, expectations, initial challenges, and recommendations for areas of study to pursue, as well as examples of efforts already in progress. The team identified the following five expectations associated with DMbE infusion, discussed further in this TM: (1) Informed decision making through increased transparency, and greater insight. (2) Enhanced communication. (3) Increased understanding for greater flexibility/adaptability in design. (4) Increased confidence that the capability will perform as expected. (5) Increased efficiency. The team identified the following seven challenges an organization might encounter when looking to infuse DMbE: (1) Assessing value added to the organization. Not all DMbE practices will be applicable to every situation in every organization, and not all implementations will have positive results. (2) Overcoming organizational and cultural hurdles. (3) Adopting contractual practices and technical data management. (4) Redefining configuration management. The DMbE environment changes the range of configuration information to be managed to include performance and design models, database objects, as well as more traditional book-form objects and formats. (5) Developing information technology (IT) infrastructure. Approaches to implementing critical, enabling IT infrastructure capabilities must be flexible, reconfigurable, and updatable. (6) Ensuring security of the single source of truth (7) Potential overreliance on quantitative data over qualitative data. Executable/ computational models and simulations generally incorporate and generate quantitative vice qualitative data. The Task team also developed several recommendations for government, academia, and industry, as discussed in this TM. The Task team recommends continuing beyond this initial work to further develop the means of implementing DMbE and to look for opportunities to collaborate and share best practices.

Hale, J. P.↗

Separating the intrinsic alignment signal and the lensing signal using self-calibration in photo- z surveys with KiDS450 and KV450 Data

ABSTRACT To reach the full potential for the next generation of weak lensing surveys, it is necessary to mitigate the contamination of intrinsic alignments (IAs) of galaxies in the observed cosmic shear signal. The self-calibration (SC) of IAs provides an independent method to measure the IA signal from the survey data and the photometric redshift information. It operates differently from the marginalization method based on the IA modelling. In this work, we present the first application of SC to the KiDS450 data and the KV450 data, to split directly the intrinsic shape–galaxy density (Ig) correlation signal and the gravitational shear–galaxy density (Gg) correlation signal, using the information from photometric redshift (photo-z). We achieved a clear separation of the two signals and performed several validation tests. Our measured signals are found to be in general agreement with the KiDS450 cosmic shear best-fitting cosmology, for both lensing and IA measurements. For KV450, we use partial (high-z) data, and our lensing measurements are also in good agreement with KV450 cosmic shear best fit, while our IA signal suggests a larger IA amplitude for the high-z sample. We discussed the impact of photo-z quality on IA detection and several other potential systematic biases. Finally, we discuss the potential application of the information extracted for both the lensing signal and the IA signal in future surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Outlook towards deployable continual learning for particle accelerators

Particle accelerators are high power complex machines. To ensure uninterrupted operation of these machines, thousands of pieces of equipment need to be synchronized, which requires addressing many challenges including design, optimization and control, anomaly detection and machine protection. With recent advancements, machine learning (ML) holds promise to assist in more advance prognostics, optimization, and control. While ML based solutions have been developed for several applications in particle accelerators, only few have reached deployment and even fewer to long term usage, due to particle accelerator data distribution drifts caused by changes in both measurable and non-measurable parameters. In this paper, we identify some of the key areas within particle accelerators where continual learning can allow maintenance of ML model performance with distribution drifts. Particularly, we first discuss existing applications of ML in particle accelerators, and their limitations due to distribution drift. Next, we review existing continual learning techniques and investigate their potential applications to address data distribution drifts in accelerators. By identifying the opportunities and challenges in applying continual learning, this paper seeks to open up the new field and inspire more research efforts towards deployable continual learning for particle accelerators.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Ionosphere Plasma State Determination in Low Earth Orbit from International Space Station Plasma Monitor

A plasma diagnostic package is deployed on the International Space Station (ISS). The system - a Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) - is used by NASA to monitor the electrical floating potential of the vehicle to assure astronaut safety during extravehicular activity. However, data from the unit also reflects the ionosphere state and seems to represent an unutilized scientific resource in the form of an archive of scientific plasma state data. The unit comprises a Floating Potential probe and two Langmuir probes. There is also an unused but active plasma impedance probe. The data, at one second cadence, are collected, typically for a two week period surrounding extravehicular activity events. Data is also collected any time a visiting vehicle docks with ISS and also when any large solar events occur. The telemetry system is unusual because the package is mounted on a television camera stanchion and its data is impressed on a video signal that is transmitted to the ground and streamed by internet to two off center laboratory locations. The data quality has in the past been challenged by weaknesses in the integrated ground station and distribution systems. These issues, since mid‐2010, have been largely resolved and the ground stations have been upgraded. Downstream data reduction has been developed using physics based modeling of the electron and ion collecting character in the plasma. Recursive algorithms determine plasma density and temperature from the raw Langmuir probe current voltage sweeps and this is made available in real time for situational awareness. The purpose of this paper is to describe and record the algorithm for data reduction and to show that the Floating probe and Langmuir probes are capable of providing long term plasma state measurement in the ionosphere. Geophysical features such as the Appleton anomaly and high latitude modulation at the edge of the Auroral zones are regularly observed in the nearly circular, 51 deg inclined, 400 km altitude ISS orbit. Evidence of waves in the ion collection current data is seen in geographic zones known to exhibit the spread‐F phenomenon. An anomaly in the current collection characteristic of the cylindrical probe appears also too be organized by the geomagnetic field.

Kramer, Leonard↗