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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,585 records · Page 88
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

A review of spatial Markov models for predicting pre-asymptotic and anomalous transport in porous and fractured media

Heterogeneity across a broad range of scales in geologic porous media often manifests in observations of non-Fickian or anomalous transport. While traditional anomalous transport models can successfully make predictions in certain geological systems, increasing evidence suggests that assumptions relating to independent and identically distributed increments constrain where and when they can be reliably applied. A relatively novel model, the Spatial Markov model (SMM), relaxes the assumption of independence. The SMM belongs to the family of correlated continuous time random walks and has shown promise across a wide range of transport problems relevant to natural porous media. It has been successfully used to model conservative as well as more recently reactive transport in highly complex flows ranging from pore scales to much larger scales of interest in geology and subsurface hydrology. In this review paper we summarize its original development and provide a comprehensive review of its advances and applications as well as lay out a vision for its future development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Artificial neural network based predictions of cetane number for furanic biofuel additives

The next generation of alternative fuels is being explored through advanced chemical and biological production techniques for the purpose of finding suitable replacements for diesel and gasoline while lowering production costs and increasing process yields. Chemical conversion of biomass to fuels offers a plethora of pathways with a variety of fuel molecules, both novel and traditional, which may be targeted. In the search for new fuels, an initial, intuition-driven evaluation of fuel compounds with desired properties is required. Due to the high cost and significant production time needed to synthesize these materials at a scale sufficient for exhaustive testing, a predictive model would allow chemists to preemptively screen fuel properties of potentially desirable fuel candidates. Current work has shown that predictive models, in this case artificial neural networks (ANN's) analyzing quantitative structure property relationships (QSPR's), can predict the cetane number (CN) of a proposed fuel molecule with relatively small error. A fuel's CN is a measure of its ignition quality, typically defined using prescribed ASTM standards and a cetane testing engine. Alternatively, the analogous derived cetane number (DCN), obtained using an Ignition Quality Tester (IQT), is a direct measurement alternative to the CN that uses an empirical inverse relationship to the ignition delay found in the constant volume combustion chamber apparatus. DCN data points acquired using an IQT were utilized for model validation and expansion of the experimental database used in this study. The present report improves on an existing model by optimizing the model architecture along with the key learning variables of the ANN and by making the model more generalizable to a wider variety of fuel candidate types, specifically the class of furans and furan derivatives, by including specific molecules for the model to incorporate. The new molecules considered include tetrahydrofuran, 2-methylfuran, 2-methyltetrahydrofuran, 5,5'-(furan-2-ylmethylene)bis(2-methylfuran), 5,5'-((tetrahydrofuran-2-yl)methylene)bis(2-methyltetrahydrofuran), tris(5-methylfuran-2-yl)methane, and tris(5-methyltetrahydrofuran-2-yl)methane. Model architecture adjustments improved the overall root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the base database predictions by 5.54%. Additionally, through the targeted database expansion, it is shown that the predicted cetane number of the furan-based molecules improves on average by 49.21% (3.74 CN units) and significantly for a few of the individual molecules. This indicates that a selected subset of representative molecules can be used to extend the model's predictive accuracy to new molecular classes. The approach, bolstered by the improvements presented in this paper, enables chemists to focus on promising molecules by eliminating less favorable candidates in relation to their ignition quality.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1998

Vestibulospinal adaptation to microgravity

Human balance control is known to be transiently disrupted after spaceflight; however, the mechanisms responsible for postflight postural ataxia are still under investigation. In this report, we propose a conceptual model of vestibulospinal adaptation based on theoretical adaptive control concepts and supported by the results from a comprehensive study of balance control recovery after spaceflight. The conceptual model predicts that immediately after spaceflight the balance control system of a returning astronaut does not expect to receive gravity-induced afferent inputs and that descending vestibulospinal control of balance is disrupted until the central nervous system is able to cope with the newly available vestibular otolith information. Predictions of the model are tested using data from a study of the neurosensory control of balance in astronauts immediately after landing. In that study, the mechanisms of sensorimotor balance control were assessed under normal, reduced, and/or altered (sway-referenced) visual and somatosensory input conditions. We conclude that the adaptive control model accurately describes the neurobehavioral responses to spaceflight and that similar models of altered sensory, motor, or environmental constraints are needed clinically to predict responses that patients with sensorimotor pathologies may have to various visual-vestibular or changing stimulus environments.

manned↗
DOE OSTI2021

A validated thermal and biological model for predicting algal productivity in large scale outdoor cultivation systems

Proper assessment of the sustainability of algal products requires an understanding of algal growth rate with regional and temporal resolution. This study developed a bulk growth model that utilizes geospatial data, reactor geometry inputs, and a maximum of six strain-specific parameters to predict algal productivity with temporal and regional resolution. The model requires local weather data to calculate the time-resolved culture temperature which is combined with a biological model based on maximum theoretical carbon fixation to predict the time-resolved algal concentration. Validation of the model against experimental data illustrates an average ac- curacy of 0.27% ± 5.32% when comparing algal concentration at harvest over 45 days of cultivation data for Galdieria sulphuraria 5587.1, and Galdieria sulphuraria Soos grown in photobioreactors (PBRs) in Mesa, AZ (33.4152° N, 111.8315° W). For open raceway ponds (ORPs), an accuracy of 0.9% ± 2.35% was achieved when comparing algal concentration at harvest over 50 days of cultivation data for Chlorella vulgaris, Desmodesmus intermedius, Nannochloropsis oceanica grown in Atlanta, GA (33.7490° N, 84.3880° W) and Mesa, AZ (33.4152° N, 111.8315° W). The validation trials spanned three seasons (winter, spring, and summer) to ensure model ac- curacy throughout the year, and concentration between harvests was modeled with hourly resolution. The validated model is used to assess the productivity at several case-study locations in the United States with Chlorella vulgaris, grown in open raceway ponds and Galdieria sulphuraria grown in vertical flat panel photo- bioreactors. In conclusion, the model has been published as an open-source tool, in an effort to increase the fidelity of future studies that rely on outdoor algae cultivation for feedstock production and allow for time resolved results for future techno-economic and life cycle assessments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1972

Cathode effects on thrust subsystem performance predictability.

Development of a model of mercury vapor electron bombardment thrustor hollow cathode operation. The proposed model predicts that the primary electron emission mechanism is thermionic when sufficient low work function material is present, that the cathode is heated by power extracted from the plasma to a temperature sufficient to emit the current demanded by the external circuit; that for a given total arc current, attempts to reduce cathode temperature by changes in the external thermal coupling will affect only the amount of power extracted from the plasma; and that depletion of low work function material in the cathode results in higher cathode temperature.

Goldstein, R.↗
NASA NTRS1981

A crack-closure model for predicting fatigue-crack growth under aircraft spectrum loading

The development and application of an analytical model of cycle crack growth is presented that includes the effects of crack closure. The model was used to correlate crack growth rates under constant amplitude loading and to predict crack growth under aircraft spectrum loading on 2219-T851 aluminum alloy sheet material. The predicted crack growth lives agreed well with experimental data. The ratio of predicted to experimental lives ranged from 0.66 to 1.48. These predictions were made using data from an ASTM E24.06.01 Round Robin.

Newman, J. C., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Using Random Forest Models to Predict Organizational Violence

We present a methodology to access the proclivity of an organization to commit violence against nongovernment personnel. We fitted a Random Forest model using the Minority at Risk Organizational Behavior (MAROS) dataset. The MAROS data is longitudinal; so, individual observations are not independent. We propose a modification to the standard Random Forest methodology to account for the violation of the independence assumption. We present the results of the model fit, an example of predicting violence for an organization; and finally, we present a summary of the forest in a "meta-tree,"

Levine, Burton↗
NASA NTRS2017

Simulation-Based Height of Burst Map for Asteroid Airburst Damage Prediction

Entry and breakup models predict that airburst in the Earth's atmosphere is likely for asteroids up to approximately 200 meters in diameter. Objects of this size can deposit over 250 megatons of energy into the atmosphere. Fast-running ground damage prediction codes for such events rely heavily upon methods developed from nuclear weapons research to estimate the damage potential for an airburst at altitude. (Collins, 2005; Mathias, 2017; Hills and Goda, 1993). In particular, these tools rely upon the powerful yield scaling laws developed for point-source blasts that are used in conjunction with a Height of Burst (HOB) map to predict ground damage for an airburst of a specific energy at a given altitude. While this approach works extremely well for yields as large as tens of megatons, it becomes less accurate as yields increase to the hundreds of megatons potentially released by larger airburst events. This study revisits the assumptions underlying this approach and shows how atmospheric buoyancy becomes important as yield increases beyond a few megatons. We then use large-scale three-dimensional simulations to construct numerically generated height of burst maps that are appropriate at the higher energy levels associated with the entry of asteroids with diameters of hundreds of meters. These numerically generated HOB maps can then be incorporated into engineering methods for damage prediction, significantly improving their accuracy for asteroids with diameters greater than 80-100 m.

Burst Map↗
NASA NTRS2014

Study of Aerothermodynamic Modeling Issues Relevant to High-Speed Sample Return Vehicles

This paper examines the application of state-of-the-art coupled ablation and radiation simulations to highspeed sample return vehicles, such as those returning from Mars or an asteroid. A defining characteristic of these entries is that the surface recession rates and temperatures are driven by nonequilibrium convective and radiative heating through a boundary layer with significant surface blowing and ablation products. Measurements relevant to validating the simulation of these phenomena are reviewed and the Stardust entry is identified as providing the best relevant measurements. A coupled ablation and radiation flowfield analysis is presented that implements a finite-rate surface chemistry model. Comparisons between this finite-rate model and a equilibrium ablation model show that, while good agreement is seen for diffusion-limited oxidation cases, the finite-rate model predicts up to 50% lower char rates than the equilibrium model at sublimation conditions. Both the equilibrium and finite rate models predict significant negative mass flux at the surface due to sublimation of atomic carbon. A sensitivity analysis to flowfield and surface chemistry rates show that, for a sample return capsule at 10, 12, and 14 km/s, the sublimation rates for C and C3 provide the largest changes to the convective flux, radiative flux, and char rate. A parametric uncertainty analysis of the radiative heating due to radiation modeling parameters indicates uncertainties ranging from 27% at 10 km/s to 36% at 14 km/s. Applying the developed coupled analysis to the Stardust entry results in temperatures within 10% of those inferred from observations, and final recession values within 20% of measurements, which improves upon the 60% over-prediction at the stagnation point obtained through an uncoupled analysis. Emission from CN Violet is shown to be over-predicted by nearly and order-of-magnitude, which is consistent with the results of previous independent analyses. Finally, the coupled analysis is applied to a 14 km/s Earth entry representative of a Mars sample return. Although the radiative heating provides a larger fraction of the total heating, the influence of ablation and radiation on the flowfield are shown to be similar to Stardust.

Johnston, Christopher O.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Primer on Dose-Response Data Modeling in Radiation Therapy

An overview of common approaches used to assess a dose response for radiation therapy–associated endpoints is presented, using lung toxicity data sets analyzed as a part of the High Dose per Fraction, Hypofractionated Treatment Effects in the Clinic effort as an example. Each component presented (eg, data-driven analysis, dose-response analysis, and calculating uncertainties on model prediction) is addressed using established approaches. Specifically, the maximum likelihood method was used to calculate best parameter values of the commonly used logistic model, the profile-likelihood to calculate confidence intervals on model parameters, and the likelihood ratio to determine whether the observed data fit is statistically significant. The bootstrap method was used to calculate confidence intervals for model predictions. Correlated behavior of model parameters and implication for interpreting dose response are discussed.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Coupled Electrochemical-Thermal Failure Model for Predicting the Thermal Runaway Behavior of Lithium-Ion Batteries

Thermal runaway is always a troublesome problem that hinders the safe application of high energy lithium-ion batteries. There is an urgent need to interpret the voltage and temperature changes and their underlying mechanisms during thermal runaway, in order to guide the safe design of a battery system. This paper is dedicated to building a coupled electrochemical-thermal model that can well predict the voltage drop and temperature increase during thermal runaway. The model can capture the underlying mechanism of 1) the capacity degradation under high temperature; 2) the internal short circuit caused by the thermal failure of the separator; and 3) the chemical reactions of the cell components that release heat under extreme temperature. The model is validated using by experimental data, therefore the modeling analysis has high fidelity. We employ the model to analyze 1) the capacity degradation under extreme temperature; 2) the influence of the SEI decomposition and regeneration on the thermal runaway behavior; 3) the heat generation by internal short circuit in the thermal runaway process. In conclusion, the discussions presented here help extend the usage of lithium-ion batteries at extreme high temperature (>80 degrees C), and guide the safe design of lithium-ion batteries with less hazard level during thermal runaway.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

An ICME Modeling Framework for Titanium/Tungsten-Carbide Metal Matrix Composites

This report describes a collaborative project to develop a validated, predictive model for the high temperature mechanical properties of a titanium-matrix, tungsten-carbide/cobalt-reinforced metal matrix composite. The modeling approach was to first develop a detailed, microstructural model linking the material structure and the interfacial debonding properties to the effective properties of the material. The project then completed a throughput simulation campaign to generate a large number of simulations for discrete microstructures and different debonding parameters. Finally, the project trained a fast, Gaussian process surrogate model against this simulation database to provide a quick model linking the material compositions, structure, and processing parameters to the resulting material properties. This model was validated against high temperature tensile test data on a few particular composite compositions. The tests validate the model predictions for ultimate tensile strength and uniform elongation/ductility, meaning the final surrogate model can now be used to tune the material composition and processing parameters to identify optimal composite compositions for particular applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

One-dimensional, transient modeling of a fixed-bed regenerator as a replacement for recuperators in supercritical CO 2 power cycles

Fixed-bed regenerators may be a low cost alternative to recuperators for supercritical CO 2 power cycles. However, the transient nature of regenerators operating in sCO 2 power cycles has not been previously characterized. This study details a one-dimensional, transient model of a fixed-bed regenerator that captures phenomena such as local fluid properties and heat transfer coefficients, entrained fluid heat capacity, and the effects of conservation of mass during process switching. The model is validated with experimental results of a 10 kWth regenerator. This comparison shows that the model predicts temperature as a function of both time and space exceptionally well. The model predicts effectiveness, heat transfer, and discharge temperatures within 5%, and predicts pressure drop and fluid carryover within 10%. This model could be used in future studies to simulate regenerators within a supercritical CO 2 power cycle.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2025

GRUMDN: A Multi-Task Model for Predicting Human Patterns-of-Life from Stay Transition Data

Understanding human patterns-of-life (PoL) is essential towards ensuring safe and secure indoor facility environment as well as outdoor urban environment. Prediction of human movement in between places of interest is vital in understanding human PoL. Movement between spaces maybe represented and detected in one of the two forms: 1) trajectories: locations measured at regular time intervals by mobile sensors, bluetooth or GPS sensors; or 2) stay transitions: semantic PoI (points of interest) and stay duration data measurable by eventbased sensors that collect data when a check-in or check-out event is detected. Stay transition data provides a more compressed data format compared to trajectories data, especially in situations with longer stay durations, while preserving the information necessary for PoL analysis. Now as introduced briefly in the paper, our deployed end application (Digital Twin of a facility with non-player characters, besides the interactive user in virtual reality) needed a well-performing and validated AI/ML model for simulating high quality stay transitions behavior. In this study we thus primarily present our findings with developing and validating that model, which is a multi-task neural network for stay transition prediction. The neural network consists of two heads, for corresponding two tasks of stay category prediction and stay duration prediction. We evaluated gated recurrent units and multi-layer perceptrons of varying network sizes for stay category prediction; while mixture density networks, noisy generator-only networks, and generative adversarial networks of varying network sizes for stay duration prediction. We have then evaluated four multi-task models, constructed by combining these specialized models, on their ability to predict stay transition data. We tested our models on datasets from two different cases: 1) a simulation-generated dataset of indoor movement within the HFIR (high flux isotope reactor) nuclear reactor facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); and 2) the GeoLife human mobility dataset of outdoor urban movement available in literature. Our results indicate that GRUMDN, which combines gated recurrent units (GRU) for stay category prediction task, and mixture density networks (MDN) for stay duration prediction task, did overall outperform other multitask models and the current state-of-the-art.

Gunaratne, Chathika [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000225088745↗
DOE OSTI2022

Home energy management under realistic and uncertain conditions: A comparison of heuristic, deterministic, and stochastic control methods

We report home energy management systems (HEMS) have been shown to reduce energy bills and to provide grid services including peak demand reduction and demand flexibility. However, uncertainty in residential energy systems is a significant issue and can reduce the benefits of a HEMS to the homeowner or grid operator. Sources of uncertainty include weather forecasts, predictions of energy-related occupant activities (e.g., hot water draws), and parameter estimation for the building envelope and energy-consuming equipment. This paper tackles the problem of uncertainty by developing a framework that simulates HEMS in uncertain conditions and evaluates the performance of multiple control strategies. A linear, reduced-order residential building model for model predictive control applications is derived and compared to a full-order model. Stochastic model predictive control is shown to perform better than deterministic and heuristic methods when considering realistic forecasts with uncertainty. The framework can evaluate the performance of HEMS in real-world applications, which can help de-risk HEMS deployment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Computational Study on the Effect of Thermal Boundary Conditions and Axial Aspect Ratio on Catalytic Oxidative Coupling of Methane

Packed-bed reactor models with a large reactor-diameter-to-particle-diameter ratio (N > 10) are commonly used in catalysis research. Their use is underpinned by strong simplifying assumptions including unidirectional plug flow, negligible radial gradients, small axial diffusion, and isothermal operation. However, the complex exothermic–endothermic nature of reactions like oxidative coupling of methane (OCM) coupled with heat transfer from the catalyst surface and convective heat losses from the reactor wall provides an interesting case study to evaluate packed-bed assumptions and understand axial and radial temperature variations that may impact conversion and selectivity. This computational study investigates the effect of thermal boundary conditions on catalyst performance in laboratory OCM reactors (N = ~13) through computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. Further, the 1-D model typically used for modeling plug flow reactors assumes negligible radial temperature and species concentration gradients. This assumption is evaluated for OCM reactors over a range of geometric axial aspect ratios, defined as the reactor length divided by the diameter, comparing the 1-D with 3-D CFD results. 1-D model predictions of catalyst performance start to deviate from the 3-D model predictions as the axial aspect ratio decreases, specifically as diameter increases at constant length. In the work, the 1-D model assumption is only found to be valid for axial aspect ratios higher than 1.6, a result considered to be relevant for all exothermic catalytic reactors.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automated Calibration for Rapid Optical Spectroscopy Sensor Development for Online Monitoring

An automated platform has been developed to assist researchers in the rapid development of optical spectroscopy sensors to quantify species from spectral data. This platform performs calibration and validation measurements simultaneously. Real-time, in situ monitoring of complex systems through optical spectroscopy has been shown to be a useful tool; however, building calibration models requires development time, which can be a limiting factor in the case of radiological or otherwise hazardous systems. While calibration time can be reduced through optimized design of experiments, this study approached the challenge differently through automation. The ATLAS (Automated Transient Learning for Applied Sensors) platform used pneumatic control of stock solutions to cycle flow profiles through desired calibration concentrations for multivariate model construction. Additionally, the transients between desired concentrations based on flow calculations were used as validation measurements to understand model predictive capabilities. This automated approach yielded an incredible 76% reduction in model development time and a 60% reduction in sample volume versus estimated manual sample preparation and static measurements. The ATLAS system was demonstrated on two systems: a three-lanthanide system with Pr/Nd/Ho representing a use case with significant overlap or interference between analyte signatures and an alternate system containing Pr/Nd/Ni to demonstrate a use case in which broad-band corrosion species signatures interfered with more distinct lanthanide absorbance profiles. Both systems resulted in strong model prediction performance (RMSEP < 9%). Lastly, ATLAS was demonstrated as a tool to simulate process monitoring scenarios (e.g., column separation) in which models can be further optimized to account for day-to-day changes as necessary (e.g., baseline correction). Ultimately, ATLAS offers a vital tool to rapidly screen monitoring methods, investigate sensor fusion, and explore more complex systems (i.e., larger numbers of species).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗