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Computational Modeling to Limit the Impact Displays and Indicator Lights Have on Habitable Volume Operational Lighting Constraints

NASA has demonstrated an interest in improving astronaut health and performance through the installment of a new lighting countermeasure on the International Space Station. The Solid State Lighting Assembly (SSLA) system is designed to positively influence astronaut health by providing a daily change to light spectrum to improve circadian entrainment. Unfortunately, existing NASA standards and requirements define ambient light level requirements for crew sleep and other tasks, yet the number of light-emitting diode (LED) indicators and displays within a habitable volume is currently uncontrolled. Because each of these light sources has its own unique spectral properties, the additive lighting environment ends up becoming something different from what was planned or researched. Restricting the use of displays and indicators is not a solution because these systems provide beneficial feedback to the crew. The research team for this grant used computer-based computational modeling and real-world lighting mockups to document the impact that light sources other than the ambient lighting system contribute to the ambient spectral lighting environment. In particular, the team was focused on understanding the impacts of long-term tasks located in front of avionics or computer displays. The team also wanted to understand options for mitigating the changes to the ambient light spectrum in the interest of maintaining the performance of a lighting countermeasure. The project utilized a variety of physical and computer-based simulations to determine direct relationships between system implementation and light spectrum. Using real-world data, computer models were built in the commercially available optics analysis software Zemax Optics Studio(c). The team also built a mockup test facility that had the same volume and configuration as one of the Zemax models. The team collected over 1200 spectral irradiance measurements, each representing a different configuration of the mockup. Analysis of the data showed a measurable impact on ambient light spectrum. This data showed that obvious design techniques exist that can be used to bind the ambient light spectrum closer to the planned spectral operating environment for the observer's eye point. The following observations should be considered when designing an operational environment that is dominated by computer displays. When more light is directed into the field of view of the observer, the greater the impact it will make on various human factors issues that depend on spectral shape and intensity. Because viewing angle has a large part to play in the amount of light flux on the crewmember's retina, beam shape, combined with light source location is an important factor for determining percent probable incident flux on the observer from any combination of light sources. Computer graphics design and display lumen output are major factors influencing the amount of spectrally intense light projected into the environment and in the viewer's direction. Use of adjustable white point display software was useful only if the predominant background color was white and if it matched the ambient light system's color. Display graphics that used a predominantly black background had the least influence on unplanned spectral energy projected into the environment. Percent reflectance makes a difference in total energy reflected back into an environment, and within certain architectural geometries, reflectance can be used to control the amount of a light spectrum that is allowed to perpetuate in the environment. Data showed that room volume and distance from significant light sources influence the total spectrum in a room. Smaller environments had a homogenizing effect on total light spectrum, whereas light from multiple sources in larger environments was less mixed. The findings indicated above should be considered when making recommendations for practice or standards for architectural systems. The ambient lighting system, surface reflectance, and display and indicator implementation all factor into the users' spectral environment. A variety of low-cost solutions exist to mitigate the impact of light from non-architectural lighting systems, and much potential for system automation and integration of display systems with the ambient environment. This team believes that proper planning can be used to avoid integration problems and also believes that human-in-the-loop evaluations, real-world test and measurement, and computer modeling can be used to determine how changes to a process, display graphics, and architecture will help maintain the planned spectral operating lighting environment.

Clark, T. A.↗

Surrogate Models for TREAT Transient Calculations

The Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is currently preparing for resumption of operation after more than 20 years in a long-term standby state. In parallel with preparation for operations and a new transient testing program, the DOE-NE Advanced Modeling and Simulation program (NEAMS) has been supporting the development of three-dimensional transient multi-physics modeling capabilities within the reactor physics application MAMMOTH [1]. Recently, the MAMMOTH reactor physics team has begun development of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the TREAT core. This research will be used to support the analysis of reactor operation and experiment planning. Traditional approaches, i.e., Monte Carlo simulations, for such tasks require a large number of model evaluations under both steady state and transient conditions. However, exhaustive sets of sampling runs are simply not practical here since evaluations of each model can take a substantial amount of time. A solution to this problem is to build a surrogate model employing a smaller number of model evaluations. The surrogate model is designed to provide an accurate and fast approximation to the detailed TREAT model. In this manner, the surrogate model can be used in place of the TREAT transient model for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis at a fraction of the computational cost. The high dimensional model representation (HDMR) [2] method is employed here for approximating the responses of interest in terms of functions of lower dimensions. This method has been implemented in RAVEN [3] and all TREAT transient calculations are performed using the multiphysics code MAMMOTH. In addition, a code interface has also been developed in order to couple RAVEN with MAMMOTH. The surrogate model is then tested and compared for the MAMMOTH model of the TREAT startup testing program Transient Test #15 core [4], and its accuracy is measured by its ability to estimate the mean, coefficient of variance, skewness, excess kurtosis and probability density function of the outputs of Transient Test #15 model, as well as root mean square error metric.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Experimental realization of classical Z 2 spin liquids in a programmable quantum device

We build and probe a Z 2 spin liquid in a programmable quantum device, the D-Wave DW-2000Q. Specifically, we observe the classical eight-vertex and six-vertex (spin ice) states and transitions between them. To realize this state of matter, we design a Hamiltonian with combinatorial gauge symmetry using only pairwise-qubit interactions and a transverse field, i.e., interactions which are accessible in this quantum device. The combinatorial gauge symmetry remains exact along the full quantum annealing path, landing the system onto the classical eight-vertex model at the endpoint of the path. The output configurations from the device allow us to directly observe the loop structure of the classical model. Moreover, we deform the Hamiltonian so as to vary the weights of the eight vertices and show that we can selectively attain the classical six-vertex (ice) model, or drive the system into a ferromagnetic state. Additionally, we present studies of the classical phase diagram of the system as a function of the eight-vertex deformations and effective temperature, which we control by varying the relative strengths of the programmable couplings, and we show that the experimental results are consistent with theoretical analysis. Finally, we identify additional capabilities that, if added to these devices, would allow us to realize Z 2 quantum spin liquids on which to build topological qubits.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Numerical insight into the seismic behavior of eight masonry towers in Northern Italy: FE pushover vs non-linear dynamic analyses

This study presents some FE results regarding the behavior under horizontal loads of eight existing masonry towers located in the North-East of Italy. The towers, albeit unique for geometric and architectural features, show some affinities which justify a comparative analysis, as for instance the location and the similar masonry material. Their structural behavior under horizontal loads is therefore influenced by geometrical issues, such as slenderness, walls thickness, perforations, irregularities, presence of internal vaults, etc., all features which may be responsible for a peculiar output. The geometry of the towers is deduced from both existing available documentation and in-situ surveys. On the basis of such geometrical data, a detailed 3D realistic mesh is conceived, with a point by point characterization of each single geometric element. The FE models are analysed under seismic loads acting along geometric axes of the plan section, both under non-linear static (pushover) and non-linear dynamic excitation assumptions. A damage-plasticity material model exhibiting softening in both tension and compression, already available in the commercial code Abaqus, is used for masonry. Pushover analyses are performed with both G1 and G2 horizontal loads distribution, according to Italian code requirements, along X+/− and Y+/− directions. Non-linear dynamic analyses are performed along both X and Y directions with a real accelerogram scaled to different peak ground accelerations. Some few results are presented in this paper. It is found that the results obtained with pushover analyses reasonably well fit expensive non-linear dynamic simulations, with a slightly less conservative trend.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Development and Demonstration of a Security Core Component

In recent years, the convergence of a number of trends has resulted in Cyber Security becoming a much greater concern for electric utilities. A short list of these trends includes: · Industrial Control Systems (ICSs) have evolved from depending on proprietary hardware and operating software toward using standard off-the-shelf hardware and operating software. This has meant that these ICSs can no longer depend on “security through obscurity. · Similarly, these same systems have evolved toward using standard communications protocols, further reducing their ability to rely upon obscurity. · The rise of the Internet and the accompanying demand for more data about virtually everything has resulted in formerly isolated ICSs becoming at least partially accessible via Internet-connected networks. · “Cyber crime” has become commonplace, whether it be for industrial espionage, reconnaissance for a possible cyber attack, theft, or because some individual or group “has something to prove.” Electric utility system operators are experts at running the power grid. The reality is, especially at small and mid-sized utilities, these SCADA operators will by default be “on the front line” if and when a cyber attack occurs against their systems. These people are not computer software, networking, or cyber security experts, so they are ill-equipped to deal with a cyber security incident. Cyber Security Manager (CSM) was conceived, designed, and built so that it can be configured to know what a utility’s SCADA/EMS/DMS system looks like under normal conditions. To do this, CSM monitors log messages from any device that uses the syslog standard. It can also monitor a variety of statistics from the computers that make up the SCADA/EMS/DMS: outputs from host-based security tools, intrusion detection systems, SCADA alarms, and real-time SCADA values – even results from a SIEM (Security Information and Event Management) system. When the system deviates from “normal,” CSM can alert the operator in language that they understand that an incident may be occurring, provide actionable intelligence, and informing them what actions to take. These alarms may be viewed on CSM’s built-in user interface, sent to a SCADA alarm list, or communicated via email, phone, pager, or SMS message. In recognition of the fact that “real world” training for cyber security events is impractical, CSM has a built-in Operator Training Simulator capability. This can be used stand alone to create simulated event scenarios for training purposes. It may also be used in conjunction with the recipient’s SCADA/EMS/DMS Operator Training Simulator. In addition to providing cyber security situational awareness for electric utility operators, CSM also provides tools for analysts and support personnel; in fact, the majority of user interface displays are designed for use in analyzing current and past security events. CSM keeps security-related information in long-term storage, as well as writing any decisions it makes to a (syslog) log for use forensic or other post-event analysis.

Turke, Andy↗

Status of the NEAMS and ARC neutronic fast reactor tools integration to the NEAMS Workbench

The Workbench initiative was launched in FY-2017 within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Integration Product Line to facilitate the transition from conventional tools to high-fidelity tools. The Workbench provides a common user interface for model creation, real-time validation, execution, output processing, and visualization for integrated codes. The integration of the Argonne Reactor Computation (ARC) suite of codes into the NEAMS Workbench was initiated in FY-2017. The ARC codes contain both legacy codes like DIF3D and REBUS-3 that were developed with over 30 years of experience, and newer NEAMS additions like MC2-3, PERSENT and PROTEUS. The ARC integration into the NEAMS Workbench interface relies on the PyARC module which handles the pre- and post-processing of the native ARC codes input, and the runtime environment. The PyARC module together with the NEAMS Workbench interface are both released under Open Source Software licenses. In FY-2019, the effort focused on integrating the explicit assembly management logic of REBUS, the GAMSOR code for gamma heating transport, and of the NODAL solver of PROTEUS. Additional capabilities were also integrated in response to user requests, such as the assembly power peaking calculation and a 2D result plotting capability. For verification and demonstration purposes, the ARC codes were used through the Workbench for solving the Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (SFR-UAM) benchmark problems, including the newly proposed unit cells and ASTRID problem. Significant effort in FY-2019 focused on training new users from ANL, INL, NCSU, and Westinghouse. In particular, extensive training material was developed in the form of tutorials, including documentation, sample inputs, and associated presentations. The ARC codes are now actively used through the NEAMS Workbench by nuclear engineers at ANL, INL, NCSU, and Westinghouse, for LFR, MSR, micro-reactor, and SFR core design analyses. Future efforts will focus on adding new and existing modeling capabilities available with the ARC and NEAMS codes, training new users and supporting them to continue building user experience.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

SU-E-T-41: Analysis of GI Dose Variability Due to Intrafraction Setup Variance

Purpose: Proton SBRT (stereotactic body radiation therapy) can be an effective modality for treatment of gastrointestinal tumors, but limited in practice due to sensitivity with respect to variation in the RPL (radiological path length). Small, intrafractional shifts in patient anatomy can lead to significant changes in the dose distribution. This study describes a tool designed to visualize uncertainties in radiological depth in patient CT's and aid in treatment plan design. Methods: This project utilizes the Shadie toolkit, a GPU-based framework that allows for real-time interactive calculations for volume visualization. Current SBRT simulation practice consists of a serial CT acquisition for the assessment of inter- and intra-fractional motion utilizing patient specific immobilization systems. Shadie was used to visualize potential uncertainties, including RPL variance and changes in gastric content. Input for this procedure consisted of two patient CT sets, contours of the desired organ, and a pre-calculated dose. In this study, we performed rigid registrations between sets of 4DCT's obtained from a patient with varying setup conditions. Custom visualizations are written by the user in Shadie, permitting one to create color-coded displays derived from a calculation along each ray. Results: Serial CT data acquired on subsequent days was analyzed for variation in RPB and gastric content. Specific shaders were created to visualize clinically relevant features, including RPL (radiological path length) integrated up to organs of interest. Using pre-calculated dose distributions and utilizing segmentation masks as additional input allowed us to further refine the display output from Shadie and create tools suitable for clinical usage. Conclusion: We have demonstrated a method to visualize potential uncertainty for intrafractional proton radiotherapy. We believe this software could prove a useful tool to guide those looking to design treatment plans least insensitive to motion for patients undergoing proton SBRT in the GI tract.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Collaborative Analysis Tool for Thermal Protection Systems for Single Stage to Orbit Launch Vehicles

Presented is a design tool and process that connects several disciplines which are needed in the complex and integrated design of high performance reusable single stage to orbit (SSTO) vehicles. Every system is linked to every other system and in the case of SSTO vehicles with air breathing propulsion, which is currently being studied by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); the thermal protection system (TPS) is linked directly to almost every major system. The propulsion system pushes the vehicle to velocities on the order of 15 times the speed of sound in the atmosphere before pulling up to go to orbit which results high temperatures on the external surfaces of the vehicle. Thermal protection systems to maintain the structural integrity of the vehicle must be able to mitigate the heat transfer to the structure and be lightweight. Herein lies the interdependency, in that as the vehicle's speed increases, the TPS requirements are increased. And as TPS masses increase the effect on the propulsion system and all other systems is compounded. To adequately determine insulation masses for a vehicle such as the one described above, the aeroheating loads must be calculated and the TPS thicknesses must be calculated for the entire vehicle. To accomplish this an ascent or reentry trajectory is obtained using the computer code Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST). The trajectory is then used to calculate the convective heat rates on several locations on the vehicles using the Miniature Version of the JA70 Aerodynamic Heating Computer Program (MINIVER). Once the heat rates are defined for each body point on the vehicle, then insulation thicknesses that are required to maintain the vehicle within structural limits are calculated using Systems Improved Numerical Differencing Analyzer (SINDA) models. If the TPS masses are too heavy for the performance of the vehicle the process may be repeated altering the trajectory or some other input to reduce the TPS mass. The problem described is an example of the need for collaborative design and analysis. Analysis tools are being developed to facilitate these collaborative efforts. RECIPE is a cross-platform application capable of hosting a number of engineers and designers across the Internet for distributed and collaborative engineering environments. Such integrated system design environments allow for collaborative team design analysis for performing individual or reduced team studies. The analysis tools mentioned earlier are commonly run on different platforms and are usually run by different people. To facilitate the larger number of potential runs that may need to be made, RECIPE connects the computer codes that calculate the trajectory data, heat rate data, and TPS masses so that the output from each tool is easily transferred to the model input files that need it. This methodology is being applied to solve launch vehicle thermal design problems to shorten the design cycle, and enable the project team to evaluate design options. Results will be presented indicating the effectiveness of this as a collaborative design tool.

Alexander, Reginald A.↗

Field and Model Data Associated with the Manuscript “Drivers of Streamflow Intermittency in Humid Regions: 2. Evaluating Controls on Flow Persistence in an Urbanized Catchment”

This package contains field data, modeling files, and scripts supporting the investigation of the drivers of streamflow intermittency in an urbanized catchment. It includes the field data collected from electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys, distributed temperature sensing (DTS), continuous self-potential (SP) monitoring, groundwater and stilling well. In addition, it contains the data and results of the coupled water- and electrical-flow model developed using the COMSOL Multiphysics and Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), as well as software files and Jupyter notebooks used to process the data and generate figures in the manuscript submitted for peer review. The data archive is organized in the following directories: 1) Climate Includes hourly precipitation and daily evapotranspiration time series (2024 – 2025) provided as CSV files, alongside a text file detailing dataset units. 2) Coupled_model Field_Application subfolder contains the ATS XML input scripts, data files, output data for the SP site. It also contains the Jupyter notebook (Plot_final_calib.ipynb) to visualize the results of the modeled SP, stream-groundwater exchange and moisture content. The flow model simulation is executed using the ATS XML scripts and the included Python script (generate_data_set.py) to convert ATS output to COMSOL-ready input. COMSOL Multiphysics template (.m can only be used with COMSOL with MATLAB) is executed using the ATS output data to simulate the potential field. 3) Discharge Includes the electrical conductivity (EC) time series (provided as CSV files) from salt slug injections. It also includes the Jupyter notebook (Discharge_process.ipynyb) used to estimate discharge. All discharge measurements collated into rating_curve_processed.csv 4) DTS Contains collated DTS data including raw Stokes and anti-Stokes measurement (provided as .h5 file). It also includes DTS processing.ipynb, a Jupyter notebook for calibrating the DTS data using dts_calibration Python package. cooler_calibration.csv is the DTS calibration CSV used in the calibration sequence. 5) ERT Contains raw resistivity data (provided as CSV files), spatial location of each of the electrodes (provided as CSV files), and files used for the resistivity inversion. 6) Slug_test Includes the slug test data at all the groundwater wells provided as CSV files, as well as the Jupyter notebook (Slug_test.ipynb) for calculating hydraulic conductivity. 7) SP Contains the SP data collected in field at the SP sites (provided as CSV files). 8) Well_data Contains two subfolders: 1) Raw, which provides unprocessed pressure, electrical conductivity and temperature timeseries downloaded from the loggers in all the groundwater and stilling wells, and 2) Processed, which contains sorted, QA/QC timeseries data for each well. The data archive also contains data_process.ipynb, a Jupyter notebook used for field data analysis and generating figures (plotting well, SP, climate, and discharge data, as well as calculating head gradient at sites with nested groundwater wells). Note: Code files (.ipynb, .py, .xml) can be opened in any standard code editor, .exo file can be viewed using Paraview, .h5 files can be opened using HDFView software and h5py Python package, and .resipy file can be opened with the open-source ResIPy software.

ATS↗

Contact pressure analysis to allow improved design for the clearing plate in a biomass comminution system

For biomass processing systems, feedstocks with small but equal sizes can improve flowability and thermochemical outputs. The Crumbler rotary shear system was designed to achieve such ideal feedstocks to reduce costs and energy throughout the biomass supply chain. Improving the wear resistance of major components in this system is important to decrease the cost. Accelerating the feedstock flow through the rotary shear machine plays an equivalent role of improving its efficiency. An analytical analysis and a finite-element analysis of the stationary clearing plate are presented in this work. Here, these tools are used to investigate the effect of contact surface curvature on the impact pressure. The optimized new clearing plate design is expected to improve the component’s lifetime and wood chips flowability. The field tests confirm that the trend of the new clearing plate design guided by FEA. The optimization method, model verification, and validation experience applied in this work can also be applied to other static components with similar simple contact wear problems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

To What Extent Can Vegetation Mitigate Greenhouse Warming? A Modeling Approach

Climate models participating in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report indicate that under a 2xCO2 environment, runoff would increase faster than precipitation overland. However, observations over large U.S watersheds indicate otherwise. This inconsistency suggests that there may be important feedbacks between climate and land surface unaccounted for in the present generation of models. We postulate that the increase in precipitation associated with the increase in CO2 is also increasing vegetation density, which may already be feeding back onto climate. Including this feedback in a climate model simulation resulted in precipitation and runoff trends consistent with observations and reduced the warming by 0.6OC overland. This unaccounted for missing water may be linked to about 10% of the missing land carbon sink. A recent compilation of outputs from 19 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) shows projected increases in air temperature, precipitation and river discharge for 24 major rivers in the world in response to doubling CO2 by the end of the century (1). The ensemble mean from these models also indicates that, compared to their respective baselines overland, the global mean of the runoff change would increase faster (8.9% per year) than that of the precipitation (5% per year). We analyze century-scale observed annual runoff time-series (1901-2002) over 9 hydrological units covering large regions of the Eastern United States (Fig.1) compiled by the United States Geological Survey (USGS)(2). These regions were selected because they are the most forested; the least water-limited and are not under extensive irrigation. We compare these time-series to similar time-series of observed annual precipitation anomalies spanning the period 1900-1995 (3). Both time-series exhibit a positive longterm trend (Fig. 2); however, in contrast to the analysis of (I), these historic data records show that the rate of precipitation increase is 5.5 % per year, roughly double the rate of runoff increase of 3.1 % per year.

Bounoua, L.↗

Aerodynamic characterization of two tandem wind turbines under yaw misalignment control using actuator line model

Yaw control has proven to be promising in alleviating the wake effects that plague the efficiency of wind farms. In this work, the actuator line modeling (ALM) method is adopted to simulate the flows over two tandem turbines distanced by 3–7 rotor diameters, with the yaw angle of the upstream rotor varying from γ 1 = 0° to 50°. The aim is to provide a comprehensive aerodynamic characterization of this simple wind farm under yaw misalignment control. With increasing yaw angle, the power generated by the downstream rotor increases, compensating the power loss in the upstream rotor, and resulting in significantly higher total power of the two turbines than that without yaw control. The maximum power output is achieved as the upstream wake of the yawed rotor is redirected away from the downstream rotor plane. Behind the downstream rotor, the secondary steering phenomenon is observed, where the wake is also redirected from the centerline. The use of the actuator line model also reveal unsteady aerodynamic characteristics that cannot be captured by lower-fidelity models. For the upstream rotor, the yaw misalignment results in time-varying change in the local angle of attack on the blade, giving rise to unsteady loading. The downstream rotor is partially submerged in the deflected wake incurred by the yawed upstream rotor. As the blade revolves into and out of the wake deficit, the blade experiences cyclic loading, leading to even stronger fluctuations in the aerodynamic loads than the upstream rotor. These analysis provides a comprehensive understanding of the yaw control effects on the two tandem rotors from the perspectives of aerodynamic performance, wake profiles, and unsteady characteristics. In conclusion, the insights gained from the present study can aid the design of collective yaw control strategies of wind farms, and lay the foundation for assessing the fatigue damage associated with yaw misalignment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Comparative Analysis of HEATNETS for Geothermal Network Performance

Thermal energy networks (TENs), also known as 5th generation district energy systems, or more specifically geothermal networks when exchanging heat with geothermal boreholes, are an important technology for decarbonization. In these networks an ambient loop connects buildings and thermal sources, such as a borehole field, to exchange energy and maintain a desired loop temperature. Water-source heat pumps are used at the buildings to connect to the ambient or thermal loop to meet to the building heating and cooling loads and maintain comfort. A semi-transient, reduced-order technical model and techno-economic model, called HEATNETS, has been developed at NREL that captures the flow of energy around a TEN. In this work, a comparison of the HEATNETS technical model and a well-known coding platform used for modeling geothermal networks, TRNSYS, has been completed for a proposed geothermal network as a verification and validation process. Hourly data provided from the TRNSYS simulation included building loads, pumping power, heat pump power, temperature entering and leaving the borehole field, and mass flow rates. The hourly borehole temperatures were used to create a linear regression model utilized in HEATNETS to estimate the borehole field heat exchange. The building loads and mass flow rates were direct inputs to HEATNETS while the pumping power, heat pump power, borehole temperatures, and coefficients of performance were all simulated and calculated by HEATNETS, allowing for direct comparison of the thermal energy transfer HEATNETS considers the full process from design inputs to economic outputs and can provide modeling options for high-level initial system design and operational optimization. This study focuses on a validation of HEATNETS using results from TRNSYS. HEATNETS is not intended to replace other modeling tools, but this work demonstrates, via a comparison with an industry standard code, that HEATNETS can be a unique, high-level and rapid modeling tool for estimating the performance of a full geothermal network system.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Integrated Analyses of Multiple Worldwide Aerosol Mass Spectrometer Datasets for Improved Understanding of Aerosol Sources and Processes and for Comparison with Global Models

The AMS is the only current instrument that provides real-time, quantitative, and size-resolved data on submicron non-refractory aerosol species with a time resolution of a few minutes or better. The AMS field data are multidimensional and massive, containing extremely rich information on aerosol chemistry, microphysics and dynamics—basic information that is required to evaluate and quantify the radiative climate forcing of atmospheric aerosols. The high time resolution of the AMS data also reveals details of aerosol dynamic variations that are vital to understanding the physico-chemical processes of atmospheric aerosols that govern aerosol properties relevant to the climate. There are two primary objectives of this 3-year project. Our first objective is to perform highly integrated analysis of dozens of AMS datasets acquired from various urban, forested, coastal, marine, mountain peak, and rural/remote locations around the world and synthesize and inter-compare results with a focus on the sources and the physico-chemical processes that govern aerosol properties relevant to aerosol climate forcing. Our second objective is to support our collaboration with global aerosol modelers, in which we will supply the size-resolved aerosol composition and temporal variation data (via a public web interface) and our analysis results for use in model testing and validation and for translation of the rich AMS database into model constraints that can improve climate forcing simulations. Several prominent global aerosol modelers have expressed enthusiastic support for this collaboration. The specific tasks that we propose to accomplish include 1) to develop, validate, and apply multivariate analysis techniques for improved characterization and source apportionment of organic aerosols; 2) to evaluate aerosol source regions and relative contributions based on back-trajectory integration (PSCF method); 3) to summarize and synthesize submicron aerosol information, including composition, concentration, size distribution and (inferred) shape and mixing state in various environments and their regional and seasonal variations within the context of regional and global modeling; and 4) to quantitatively evaluate important processes in various atmospheric environments and during different seasons, focusing on acid-catalyzed SOA formation, new particle growth, and photochemical processes of atmospheric organic aerosols (i.e., SOA production and POA oxidation). We will also examine the correlations and compile the ratios between important pairs of aerosol and gas phase species using region-specific and season-specific correlations and as a function of photochemical age and compare them with the ratios produced by various models. To enable our collaborations with the modelers, we will supply (via a public web interface) AMS data and our analysis results for use in model testing and validation and facilitate the use of the AMS information to constrain calculations of radiative forcing. Model output and AMS measurements and derived parameters will be compared with a focus on regional variability of model/measurement discrepancies and their causes. Finally we will share results, insights and data mining algorithms through peer-reviewed publications, presentations/tutorials at conferences/workshops, and web dissemination of analysis results and in-house developed software packages.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A deep learning-based workflow for fast prediction of 3D state variables in geological carbon storage: A dimension reduction approach

Deep learning (DL) models are extensively used as surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of multiphase fluid flow in porous media at large scales, enabling fast forecasts of the spatial–temporal evolution of three-dimensional (3D) state variables in geological carbon storage (GCS). However, training these models in high-dimensional space remains computationally demanding and prone to overfitting because of limited training data. This paper presents a novel workflow to address these challenges by integrating dimension reduction (DR) methods. Here, the proposed workflow employed pre-trained DR models to extract the latent variables of geological models and state variables and utilized the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for constructing mapping functions between the input and output variables in latent spaces. Subsequently, the pre-trained reconstruction models converted the MLP-predicted latent state variables to their original high-dimensional form. Furthermore, we proposed a novel strategy for the DR and reconstruction of 3D saturation fields to account for the unique data characteristics of sparsity, nonuniformity, and discontinuity. The proposed strategy applied PCA and inverse PCA for 2D average saturation fields and developed a DL-based 3D reconstruction model, leveraging three 2D average saturation fields as input to produce a 3D saturation field as output. The pre-training of DR and reconstruction models and training of MLP models were conducted on 84 Gulf of Mexico (GoM) simulations and evaluated on 12 testing simulations. Each simulation contained 720 monthly time steps, with the first 360 months as the injection period and the rest as the post-injection period. The proposed workflow, incorporating DR and DL models, accurately predicts the normalized 3D pressure fields, achieving mean square error (MSE) of 2.92 × 10 -7 compared to the ground truth obtained from a full-physics simulator. Furthermore, the proposed strategy outperformed PCA and convolutional autoencoder (CAE) models on 3D saturation fields, resulting in minor workflow prediction errors with an MSE of 2.93 × 10 -5 . The results suggest the proposed workflow provides sufficient predictive fidelity across temporal and spatial scales, and enables a speedup of 160 times compared to the full-physics simulator, facilitating improved decision-making and risk assessment for large-scale GCS management in real-time scenarios.

3D reconstruction model↗

Reduced-Order Model for Leakage Through an Open Wellbore from the Reservoir due to Carbon Dioxide Injection

Potential CO 2 leakage through existing open wellbores is one of the most significant hazards that need to be addressed in geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) projects. In the framework of the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) which requires fast computations for uncertainty analysis, rigorous simulation of the coupled wellbore-reservoir system is not practical. We have developed a 7,200-point look-up table reduced-order model (ROM) for estimating the potential leakage rate up open wellbores in response to CO 2 injection nearby. The ROM is based on coupled simulations using T2Well/ECO2H which was run repeatedly for representative conditions relevant to NRAP to create a look-up table response-surface ROM. The ROM applies to a wellbore that fully penetrates a 20-m thick reservoir that is used for CO 2 storage. The radially symmetric reservoir is assumed to have initially uniform pressure, temperature, gas saturation, and brine salinity, and it is assumed these conditions are held constant at the far-field boundary (100 m away from the wellbore). In such a system, the leakage can quickly reach quasi-steady state. The ROM table can be used to estimate both the free-phase CO 2 and brine leakage rates through an open well as a function of wellbore and reservoir conditions. Results show that injection-induced pressure and reservoir gas saturation play important roles in controlling leakage. Caution must be used in the application of this ROM because well leakage is formally transient and the ROM lookup table was populated using quasi-steady simulation output after 1000 time steps which may correspond to different physical times for the various parameter combinations of the coupled wellbore-reservoir system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving Robustness of Spectrogram Classifiers with Neural Stochastic Differential Equations

Signal analysis and classification is fraught with high levels of noise and perturbation. Computer-vision-based deep learning models applied to spectrograms have proven useful in the field of signal classification and detection; however, these methods aren't designed to handle the low signal-to-noise ratios inherent within non-vision signal processing tasks. While they are powerful, they are currently not the method of choice in the inherently noisy and dynamic critical infrastructure domain, such as smart-grid sensing, anomaly detection, and non-intrusive load monitoring. Currently, these models can be brittle, which makes them susceptible to noisy input. This also means they have sub-optimal stability of explanation outputs. Experts and technicians using these models to make decisions in real world scenarios need assurance that a model is performing as it is supposed to. The classification or prediction outputs it generates should be sound and grounded, not likely to change in the presence of shifting noise landscapes. In this work, we explore the idea of Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (NSDE's) to improve the robustness of models trained to classify time series data and the effect of NSDE's on the explainability of outputs. We then test the effectiveness of these approaches by applying them to a non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) dataset that consists of simulated harmonic signals injected into a real building.

Brogan, Joel↗

Comparative Analysis of HEATNETS for Geothermal Network Performance: Preprint

Thermal energy networks (TENs), also known as 5th generation district energy systems, or more specifically geothermal networks when exchanging heat with geothermal boreholes, are an important technology for decarbonization. In these networks an ambient loop connects buildings and thermal sources, such as a borehole field, to exchange energy and maintain a desired loop temperature. Water-source heat pumps are used at the buildings to connect to the ambient or thermal loop to meet to the building heating and cooling loads and maintain comfort. A semi-transient, reduced-order technical model and techno-economic model, called HEATNETS, has been developed at NREL that captures the flow of energy around a TEN. In this work, a comparison of the HEATNETS technical model and a well-known coding platform used for modeling geothermal networks, TRNSYS, has been completed for a proposed geothermal network as a verification process. Hourly data provided from the TRNSYS simulation included building loads, pumping power, heat pump power, temperature entering and leaving the borehole field, and mass flow rates. The hourly borehole temperatures were used to create a linear regression model utilized in HEATNETS to estimate the borehole field heat exchange. The building loads and mass flow rates were direct inputs to HEATNETS while the pumping power, heat pump power, borehole temperatures, and coefficients of performance were all simulated and calculated by HEATNETS, allowing for direct comparison of the thermal energy transfer, rather than also comparing control systems responses. HEATNETS considers the full process from design inputs to economic outputs and can provide modeling options for high-level initial system design and operational optimization. This study shows that HEATNETS, while not intended to replace other modeling tools, can be a unique modeling tool for the performance of a full geothermal network system.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗