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DOE OSTI2016

Thermodynamics, morphology, and kinetics of early-stage self-assembly of π-conjugated oligopeptides

Synthetic oligopeptides containing π-conjugated cores self-assemble novel materials with attractive electronic and photophysical properties. All-atom, explicit solvent molecular dynamics simulations of Asp-Phe-Ala-Gly-OPV3-Gly-Ala-Phe-Asp peptides were used to parameterize an implicit solvent model to simulate early-stage self-assembly. Under low-pH conditions, peptides assemble into β-sheet-like stacks with strongly favorable monomer association free energies of ΔF ≈ -25kBT. Aggregation at high-pH produces disordered aggregates destabilized by Coulombic repulsion between negatively charged Asp termini (ΔF ≈ -5kBT). In simulations of hundreds of monomers over 70 ns we observe the spontaneous formation of up to undecameric aggregates under low-pH conditions. Modeling assembly as a continuous-time Markov process, we infer transition rates between different aggregate sizes and microsecond relaxation times for early-stage assembly. Our data suggests a hierarchical model of assembly in which peptides coalesce into small clusters over tens of nanoseconds followed by structural ripening and diffusion limited aggregation on longer time scales. This work provides new molecular-level understanding of early-stage assembly, and a means to study the impact of peptide sequence and aromatic core chemistry upon the thermodynamics, assembly kinetics, and morphology of the supramolecular aggregates.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2009

Insights into the Galactic Cosmic-ray Source from the TIGER Experiment

We report results from 50 days of data accumulated in two Antarctic flights of the Trans-Iron Galactic Element Recorder (TIGER). With a detector system composed of scintillators, Cherenkov detectors, and scintillating optical fibers, TIGER has a geometrical acceptance of 1.7 sq m sr and a charge resolution of 0.23 cu at Iron. TIGER has obtained abundance measurements of some of the rare galactic cosmic rays heavier than iron, including Zn, Ga, Ge, Se, and Sr, as well as the more abundant lighter elements (down to Si). The heavy elements have long been recognized as important probes of the nature of the galactic cosmic-ray source and accelerator. After accounting for fragmentation of cosmic-ray nuclei as they propagate through the Galaxy and the atmosphere above the detector system, the TIGER source abundances are consistent with a source that is a mixture of about 20% ejecta from massive stars and 80% interstellar medium with solar system composition. This result supports a model of cosmic-ray origin in OB associations previously inferred from ACE-CRIS data of more abundant lighter elements. These TIGER data also support a cosmic-ray acceleration model in which elements present in interstellar grains are accelerated preferentially compared with those found in interstellar gas.

Link, Jason T.↗

DOE OSTI2022

DIGS: deep inference of galaxy spectra with neural posterior estimation

Abstract With the advent of billion-galaxy surveys with complex data, the need of the hour is to efficiently model galaxy spectral energy distributions (SEDs) with robust uncertainty quantification. The combination of simulation-based inference (SBI) and amortized neural posterior estimation (NPE) has been successfully used to analyse simulated and real galaxy photometry both precisely and efficiently. In this work, we utilise this combination and build on existing literature to analyse simulated noisy galaxy spectra. Here, we demonstrate a proof-of-concept study of spectra that is (a) an efficient analysis of galaxy SEDs and inference of galaxy parameters with physically interpretable uncertainties; and (b) amortized calculations of posterior distributions of said galaxy parameters at the modest cost of a few galaxy fits with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We utilise the SED generator and inference framework Prospector to generate simulated spectra, and train a dataset of 2 × 10 6 spectra (corresponding to a five-parameter SED model) with NPE. We show that SBI—with its combination of fast and amortized posterior estimations—is capable of inferring accurate galaxy stellar masses and metallicities. Our uncertainty constraints are comparable to or moderately weaker than traditional inverse-modelling with Bayesian MCMC methods (e.g. 0.17 and 0.26 dex in stellar mass and metallicity for a given galaxy, respectively). We also find that our inference framework conducts rapid SED inference (0.9–1.2 × 10 5 galaxy spectra via SBI/NPE at the cost of 1 MCMC-based fit). With this work, we set the stage for further work that focuses of SED fitting of galaxy spectra with SBI, in the era of JWST galaxy survey programs and the wide-field Roman Space Telescope spectroscopic surveys.

spectroscopy↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deep inference of simulated strong lenses in ground-based surveys

The large number of strong lenses discoverable in future astronomical surveys will likely enhance the value of strong gravitational lensing as a cosmic probe of dark energy and dark matter. However, leveraging the increased statistical power of such large samples will require further development of automated lens modeling techniques. We show that deep learning and simulation-based inference (SBI) methods produce informative and reliable estimates of parameter posteriors for strong lensing systems in ground-based surveys. We present the examination and comparison of two approaches to lens parameter estimation for strong galaxy-galaxy lenses — Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs). We perform inference on 1-, 5-, and 12-parameter lens models for ground-based imaging data that mimics the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that NPE outperforms BNNs, producing posterior distributions that are more accurate, precise, and well-calibrated for most parameters. For the 12-parameter NPE model, the calibration is consistently within <10% of optimal calibration for all parameters, while the BNN is rarely within 20% of optimal calibration for any of the parameters. Similarly, residuals for most of the parameters are smaller (by up to an order of magnitude) with the NPE model than the BNN model. This work takes important steps in the systematic comparison of methods for different levels of model complexity.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS2001

Inferring Instantaneous, Multivariate and Nonlinear Sensitivities for the Analysis of Feedback Processes in a Dynamical System: Lorenz Model Case Study

A new approach is presented for the analysis of feedback processes in a nonlinear dynamical system by observing its variations. The new methodology consists of statistical estimates of the sensitivities between all pairs of variables in the system based on a neural network modeling of the dynamical system. The model can then be used to estimate the instantaneous, multivariate and nonlinear sensitivities, which are shown to be essential for the analysis of the feedbacks processes involved in the dynamical system. The method is described and tested on synthetic data from the low-order Lorenz circulation model where the correct sensitivities can be evaluated analytically.

Aires, Filipe↗

DOE OSTI2019

Conditional deep surrogate models for stochastic, high-dimensional, and multi-fidelity systems

Here, we present a probabilistic deep learning methodology that enables the construction of predictive data-driven surrogates for stochastic systems. Leveraging recent advances in variational inference with implicit distributions, we put forth a statistical inference framework that enables the end-to-end training of surrogate models on paired input–output observations that may be stochastic in nature, originate from different information sources of variable fidelity, or be corrupted by complex noise processes. The resulting surrogates can accommodate high-dimensional inputs and outputs and are able to return predictions with quantified uncertainty. Furthermore, the effectiveness our approach is demonstrated through a series of canonical studies, including the regression of noisy data, multi-fidelity modeling of stochastic processes, and uncertainty propagation in high-dimensional dynamical systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Bayesian characterization and forward propagation of the uncertainty in thermodynamic models for redox active materials

Demonstrating the thermodynamic efficiency of hydrogen conversion processes using various materials is a critical step in developing new technologies for storing concentrated solar energy, and is largely accomplished by using a thermodynamic model derived from experimental data. A main goal of this project is to calculate the uncertainty of the thermodynamic efficiency by calculating the uncertainty of the components that feed into the efficiency. Many different models and data sets were used to test the workflow. First, the models were fit to the data using a Bayesian Inference and a method called Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which found the maximum a priori parameters, and a posterior probability distribution of the parameters. Next, the different models were compared to each other using model evidence values. It was found that for cleaner data sets, overfitting had not yet been reached, and the most complicated model was ideal, but on the noisier data sets, the less complex models were favored because the more complicated models resulted in overfitting. Next, forward propagation was used to calculate the enthalpy change and its associated uncertainty. A few variations on the models were tried, such as fitting in a different variable, producing negligible or negative effects on the fits of the models. Thus, the original models were used. A sensitivity analysis was performed, and used to calculate the model error. On the cleaner data sets, there was very minimal experimental noise, and thus, all resulting error was from the model. With consideration of the model error, the models fit the data very well, and the simpler model had a high model error, as expected. All these components will then be used to calculate the thermodynamic efficiency of the different materials.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Recommended conventions for reporting results from direct dark matter searches

Abstract The field of dark matter detection is a highly visible and highly competitive one. In this paper, we propose recommendations for presenting dark matter direct detection results particularly suited for weak-scale dark matter searches, although we believe the spirit of the recommendations can apply more broadly to searches for other dark matter candidates, such as very light dark matter or axions. To translate experimental data into a final published result, direct detection collaborations must make a series of choices in their analysis, ranging from how to model astrophysical parameters to how to make statistical inferences based on observed data. While many collaborations follow a standard set of recommendations in some areas, for example the expected flux of dark matter particles (to a large degree based on a paper from Lewin and Smith in 1995), in other areas, particularly in statistical inference, they have taken different approaches, often from result to result by the same collaboration. We set out a number of recommendations on how to apply the now commonly used Profile Likelihood Ratio method to direct detection data. In addition, updated recommendations for the Standard Halo Model astrophysical parameters and relevant neutrino fluxes are provided. The authors of this note include members of the DAMIC, DarkSide, DARWIN, DEAP, LZ, NEWS-G, PandaX, PICO, SBC, SENSEI, SuperCDMS, and XENON collaborations, and these collaborations provided input to the recommendations laid out here. Wide-spread adoption of these recommendations will make it easier to compare and combine future dark matter results.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Cosmic Ultraviolet Baryon Survey (CUBS) – III. Physical properties and elemental abundances of Lyman-limit systems at z < 1

ABSTRACT We present a systematic investigation of physical conditions and elemental abundances in four optically thick Lyman-limit systems (LLSs) at z = 0.36–0.6 discovered within the Cosmic Ultraviolet Baryon Survey (CUBS). Because intervening LLSs at z < 1 suppress far-UV (ultraviolet) light from background QSOs, an unbiased search of these absorbers requires a near-UV-selected QSO sample, as achieved by CUBS. CUBS LLSs exhibit multicomponent kinematic structure and a complex mix of multiphase gas, with associated metal transitions from multiple ionization states such as C ii, C iii, N iii, Mg ii, Si ii, Si iii, O ii, O iii, O vi, and Fe ii absorption that span several hundred km s−1 in line-of-sight velocity. Specifically, higher column density components (log N(H i)/cm−2≳ 16) in all four absorbers comprise dynamically cool gas with $\langle T \rangle =(2\pm 1) \times 10^4\,$K and modest non-thermal broadening of $\langle b_\mathrm{nt} \rangle =5\pm 3\,$km s−1. The high quality of the QSO absorption spectra allows us to infer the physical conditions of the gas, using a detailed ionization modelling that takes into account the resolved component structures of H i and metal transitions. The range of inferred gas densities indicates that these absorbers consist of spatially compact clouds with a median line-of-sight thickness of $160^{+140}_{-50}$ pc. While obtaining robust metallicity constraints for the low density, highly ionized phase remains challenging due to the uncertain $N\mathrm{(H\, {\small I})}$, we demonstrate that the cool-phase gas in LLSs has a median metallicity of $\mathrm{[\alpha /H]_{1/2}}=-0.7^{+0.1}_{-0.2}$, with a 16–84 percentile range of [α/H] = (−1.3, −0.1). Furthermore, the wide range of inferred elemental abundance ratios ([C/α], [N/α], and [Fe/α]) indicate a diversity of chemical enrichment histories. Combining the absorption data with deep galaxy survey data characterizing the galaxy environment of these absorbers, we discuss the physical connection between star-forming regions in galaxies and diffuse gas associated with optically thick absorption systems in the z < 1 circumgalactic medium.

Zahedy, Fakhri S. (ORCID:0000000178692551)↗

NASA NTRS1990

Flight crew aiding for recovery from subsystem failures

Some of the conceptual issues associated with pilot aiding systems are discussed and an implementation of one component of such an aiding system is described. It is essential that the format and content of the information the aiding system presents to the crew be compatible with the crew's mental models of the task. It is proposed that in order to cooperate effectively, both the aiding system and the flight crew should have consistent information processing models, especially at the point of interface. A general information processing strategy, developed by Rasmussen, was selected to serve as the bridge between the human and aiding system's information processes. The development and implementation of a model-based situation assessment and response generation system for commercial transport aircraft are described. The current implementation is a prototype which concentrates on engine and control surface failure situations and consequent flight emergencies. The aiding system, termed Recovery Recommendation System (RECORS), uses a causal model of the relevant subset of the flight domain to simulate the effects of these failures and to generate appropriate responses, given the current aircraft state and the constraints of the current flight phase. Since detailed information about the aircraft state may not always be available, the model represents the domain at varying levels of abstraction and uses the less detailed abstraction levels to make inferences when exact information is not available. The structure of this model is described in detail.

Hudlicka, E.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Beyond Point Estimates: Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods on the AION-1 Astronomical Foundation Model

Foundation models for astronomical surveys offer powerful learned representations that can be transferred to downstream regression tasks such as galaxy property estimation. However, point predictions alone are insufficient for scientific inference; reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential. We compare seven UQ methods on galaxy property regression using frozen AION-1 foundation-model embeddings, predicting redshift, stellar mass, stellar-population age, gas-phase metallicity, and specific star-formation rate, from Legacy Survey photometry/imaging and DESI spectra, with PROVABGS-derived labels. Distribution-free conformal methods achieve marginal coverage within $\sim$1 pp of the nominal 90% across all properties, while non-conformal baselines (Deep Ensembles, MC~Dropout) fail to calibrate reliably. Among conformal approaches, Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) delivers the best coverage in the bin with the poorest model predictions. More importantly, only the Locally Valid and Discriminative (LVD) framework -- particularly when operating on AION-1 embeddings -- also provides finite-sample \emph{local validity}, producing intervals that adapt to each galaxy's local prediction difficulty rather than relying on marginal guarantees alone. These results establish conformal prediction, and LVD in particular, as the preferred UQ framework for uncertainty-aware inference on foundation-model embeddings in astrophysics.

Tame-Narvaez, Karla [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000022249↗

NASA NTRS2008

Safe Upper-Bounds Inference of Energy Consumption for Java Bytecode Applications

Many space applications such as sensor networks, on-board satellite-based platforms, on-board vehicle monitoring systems, etc. handle large amounts of data and analysis of such data is often critical for the scientific mission. Transmitting such large amounts of data to the remote control station for analysis is usually too expensive for time-critical applications. Instead, modern space applications are increasingly relying on autonomous on-board data analysis. All these applications face many resource constraints. A key requirement is to minimize energy consumption. Several approaches have been developed for estimating the energy consumption of such applications (e.g. [3, 1]) based on measuring actual consumption at run-time for large sets of random inputs. However, this approach has the limitation that it is in general not possible to cover all possible inputs. Using formal techniques offers the potential for inferring safe energy consumption bounds, thus being specially interesting for space exploration and safety-critical systems. We have proposed and implemented a general frame- work for resource usage analysis of Java bytecode [2]. The user defines a set of resource(s) of interest to be tracked and some annotations that describe the cost of some elementary elements of the program for those resources. These values can be constants or, more generally, functions of the input data sizes. The analysis then statically derives an upper bound on the amount of those resources that the program as a whole will consume or provide, also as functions of the input data sizes. This article develops a novel application of the analysis of [2] to inferring safe upper bounds on the energy consumption of Java bytecode applications. We first use a resource model that describes the cost of each bytecode instruction in terms of the joules it consumes. With this resource model, we then generate energy consumption cost relations, which are then used to infer safe upper bounds. How energy consumption for each bytecode instruction is measured is beyond the scope of this paper. Instead, this paper is about how to infer safe energy consumption estimations assuming that those energy consumption costs are provided. For concreteness, we use a simplified version of an existing resource model [1] in which an energy consumption cost for individual Java opcodes is defined.

Navas, Jorge↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Gaia DR2 parallax zero-point: hierarchical modelling of red clump stars

ABSTRACT The systematic offset of Gaia parallaxes has been widely reported with Gaia’s second data release, and it is expected to persist in future Gaia data. In order to use Gaia parallaxes to infer distances to high precision, we develop a hierarchical probabilistic model to determine the Gaia parallax zero-point offset along with the calibration of an empirical model for luminosity of red clump stars by combining astrometric and photometric measurements. Using a cross-matched sample of red clump stars from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment and Gaia Data Release 2 (DR2), we report the parallax zero-point offset in DR2 to be $\varpi _0 = -48 \pm 1\,\mu \text{as}$. We infer the red clump absolute magnitude to be −1.622 ± 0.004 in Ks, 0.435 ± 0.004 in G, −1.019 ± 0.004 in J, and −1.516 ± 0.004 in H. The intrinsic scatter of the red clump is ∼0.09 mag in J, H, and Ks, or ∼ 0.12 mag in G. We tailor our models to accommodate more complex analyses such as investigating the variations of the parallax zero-point with each source’s observed magnitude, observed colour, and sky position. In particular, we find fluctuations of the zero-point across the sky to be of order or less than a few 10s of $\mu \text{as}$.

Chan, Victor C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

The physiological basis for estimating photosynthesis from Chl>em>a fluorescence

We report solar-induced Chl fluorescence (SIF) offers the potential to curb large uncertainties in the estimation of photosynthesis across biomes and climates, and at different spatiotemporal scales. However, it remains unclear how SIF should be used to mechanistically estimate photosynthesis. In this study, we built a quantitative framework for the estimation of photosynthesis, based on a mechanistic light reaction model with the Chla fluorescence of Photosystem II (SIFPSII) as an input (MLR-SIF). Utilizing 29 C 3 and C 4 plant species that are representative of major plant biomes across the globe, we confirmed the validity of this framework at the leaf level. The MLR-SIF model is capable of accurately reproducing photosynthesis for all C 3 and C 4 species under diverse light, temperature, and CO 2 conditions. We further tested the robustness of the MLR-SIF model using Monte Carlo simulations, and found that photosynthesis estimates were much less sensitive to parameter uncertainties relative to the conventional Farquhar, von Caemmerer, Berry (FvCB) model because of the additional independent information contained in SIF PSII . Once inferred from direct observables of SIF, SIF PSII provides ‘parameter savings’ to the MLR-SIF model, compared to the mechanistically equivalent FvCB model, and thus avoids the uncertainties arising as a result of imperfect model parameterization. Our findings set the stage for future efforts to employ SIF mechanistically to improve photosynthesis estimates across a variety of scales, functional groups, and environmental conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bridging New Observational Capabilities and Process-Level Simulation: Insights into Aerosol Roles in the Earth System

The spatial distribution of ambient aerosol particles significantly impacts aerosol–radiation–cloud interactions, which contribute to the largest uncertainty in global anthropogenic radiative forcing estimations. However, the atmospheric boundary layer and lower free troposphere have not been adequately sampled in terms of spatiotemporal resolution, hindering a comprehensive characterization of various atmospheric processes and impeding our understanding of the Earth system. To address this research data gap, we have leveraged the development of uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) and advanced measurement techniques to obtain mesoscale spatial data on aerosol microphysical and optical properties around the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory. Our study also benefits from state-of-the-art laboratory facilities that include three-dimensional molecular imaging techniques enabled by secondary ion mass spectrometry and nanogram-level chemical composition analysis via micronebulization aerosol mass spectrometry. Through our study, we have developed a framework for observation–modeling integration, enabling an examination of how various assumptions about the organic–inorganic components mixing state, inferred from chemical analysis, affect clouds and radiation in observation-constrained model simulations. By integrating observational constraints (derived from offline chemical analysis of the aerosol surface using collected samples) with in situ UAS observations, we have identified a prominent role of organic-enriched nanometer layers located at the surface of aerosol particles in determining profiles of aerosol optical and hygroscopic properties over the SGP observatory. Furthermore, we have improved the agreement between predicted clouds and ground-based cloud lidar measurements. This UAS–model–laboratory integration exemplifies how these new advanced capabilities can significantly enhance our understanding of aerosol–radiation–cloud interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Preliminary Modeling to Support the TREAT Hodoscope System for Fuel Motion Monitoring

Fuel motion is monitored in real time at the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) using a direct-viewing hodoscope that monitors fast neutrons emitted from test fuel undergoing fission during transients. The hodoscope system is now being refurbished, after over twenty years, to once again support research and development activities examining the survival and failure modes of advanced nuclear reactor fuel systems under accident conditions. An im-portant part of this activity is the development of high-fidelity modeling tools to predict the hodoscope's response to different fuel systems, in different test vehicles, throughout different transient cycles. Initial work has involved the collection of archival data related to how the hodoscope currently at TREAT was manufactured and installed, and the use of this data to create a preliminary radiation transport model using MCNP6. This model is now undergoing refinement to improve its fidelity and to permit its integration with other tools under development to model TREAT transients. The model will be used to study how fast-neutrons measured in the hodoscope's detectors relate to the fission of nuclear material in a test vehicle as a function of location within the vehicle and reactor power. The goal is to develop a time-dependent coupling factor that will relate the measured data to the fuel mass present within each pixel of the hodoscope's field of view. This paper will present the current status of the TREAT hodoscope refurbishment program and modeling activities related to interpreting hodoscope data and inferring fuel motion during transients.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Weak lensing mass-richness relation of redMaPPer clusters in LSST DESC DC2 simulations

Cluster scaling relations are key ingredients in cluster abundance-based cosmological studies. In optical cluster cosmology, where clusters are detected through their richness, cluster-weak gravitational lensing has proven to be a powerful tool to constrain the cluster mass-richness relation. This work is conducted as part of the Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC), which aims to analyze the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, starting in 2026. Cluster properties inferred from weak lensing, such as mass, suffer from several sources of bias. In this paper, we aim to test the impact of modeling choices and observational systematics in cluster lensing on the inference of the mass-richness relation. We constrained the mass-richness relation of 3600 clusters detected by the redMaPPer algorithm in the cosmoDC2 extragalactic mock catalog of the LSST DESC DC2 simulation, covering 440 deg 2 , using number count measurements and either stacked weak lensing profiles or mean cluster masses in several intervals of richness (20 ≤ λ ≤ 200) and redshift (0.2 ≤ z ≤ 1). We provide the first constraints on the redMaPPer cluster mass-richness relation detected in cosmoDC2. We find that for an LSST-like source galaxy density, our constraints are robust to changes in the concentration-mass relation, as well as the dark matter density profile modeling choices, when source redshifts and shapes are perfectly known. We find that photometric redshift uncertainties can introduce bias at the 1σ level, which could be mitigated by an overall correction factor fitted jointly with the scaling parameters. We find that including positive shear-richness covariance in the fit shifts the results by up to 0.5σ. Our constraints also offer a fair comparison to a fiducial mass-richness relation, obtained from matching cosmoDC2 halo masses to redMaPPer-detected cluster richness results.

galaxy clusters↗

DOE OSTI2014

Toward an understanding of foreground emission in the BICEP2 region

BICEP2 has reported the detection of a degree-scale B-mode polarization pattern in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and has interpreted the measurement as evidence for primordial gravitational waves. Motivated by the profound importance of the discovery of gravitational waves from the early Universe, we examine to what extent a combination of Galactic foregrounds and lensed E-modes could be responsible for the signal. We reanalyze the BICEP2 results and show that the 100 ×150 GHz and 150 ×150 GHz data are consistent with a cosmology with r=0.2 and negligible foregrounds, but also with a cosmology with r=0 and a significant dust polarization signal. We give independent estimates of the dust polarization signal in the BICEP2 region using a number of different approaches: (1) data-driven models based on Planck 353 GHz intensity, polarization fractions inferred from the same Planck data used by the BICEP2 team but corrected for CMB and CIB contributions, and polarization angles from starlight polarization data or the Planck sky model; (2) the same set of pre-Planck models used by the BICEP2 team but taking into account the higher polarization fractions observed in the CMB- and CIB-corrected map; (3) a measurement of neutral hydrogen gas column density N{sub HI} in the BICEP2 region combined with an extrapolation of a relation between HI column density and dust polarization derived by Planck; and (4) a dust polarization map based on digitized Planck data, which we only use as a final cross-check. While these approaches are consistent with each other, the expected amplitude of the dust polarization power spectrum remains uncertain by about a factor of three. The lower end of the prediction leaves room for a primordial contribution, but at the higher end the dust in combination with the standard CMB lensing signal could account for the BICEP2 observations, without requiring the existence of primordial gravitational waves. By measuring the cross-correlations between the pre-Planck templates used in the BICEP2 analysis and between different versions of a data-based template, we emphasize that cross-correlations between models are very sensitive to noise in the polarization angles and that measured cross-correlations are likely underestimates of the contribution of foregrounds to the map. These results suggest that BICEP1 and BICEP2 data alone cannot distinguish between foregrounds and a primordial gravitational wave signal, and that future Keck Array observations at 100 GHz and Planck observations at higher frequencies will be crucial to determine whether the signal is of primordial origin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗