Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Modeling and Performance Analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,603 records · Page 89
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

An Efficient Approach for the Reliability Analysis of Phased-Mission Systems with Dependent Failures

We consider the reliability analysis of phased-mission systems with common-cause failures in this paper. Phased-mission systems (PMS) are systems supporting missions characterized by multiple, consecutive, and nonoverlapping phases of operation. System components may be subject to different stresses as well as different reliability requirements throughout the course of the mission. As a result, component behavior and relationships may need to be modeled differently from phase to phase when performing a system-level reliability analysis. This consideration poses unique challenges to existing analysis methods. The challenges increase when common-cause failures (CCF) are incorporated in the model. CCF are multiple dependent component failures within a system that are a direct result of a shared root cause, such as sabotage, flood, earthquake, power outage, or human errors. It has been shown by many reliability studies that CCF tend to increase a system's joint failure probabilities and thus contribute significantly to the overall unreliability of systems subject to CCF.We propose a separable phase-modular approach to the reliability analysis of phased-mission systems with dependent common-cause failures as one way to meet the above challenges in an efficient and elegant manner. Our methodology is twofold: first, we separate the effects of CCF from the PMS analysis using the total probability theorem and the common-cause event space developed based on the elementary common-causes; next, we apply an efficient phase-modular approach to analyze the reliability of the PMS. The phase-modular approach employs both combinatorial binary decision diagram and Markov-chain solution methods as appropriate. We provide an example of a reliability analysis of a PMS with both static and dynamic phases as well as CCF as an illustration of our proposed approach. The example is based on information extracted from a Mars orbiter project. The reliability model for this orbiter considers the various phases of Launch, Cruise, Mars Orbit Insertion, and Orbit. Some of the CCF for the orbiter in this mission include environmental effects, such as micrometeoroids, human operator errors, and software errors.

reliability analysis↗
NASA NTRS1997

Dynamic Electrothermal Model of a Sputtered Thermopile Thermal Radiation Detector for Earth Radiation Budget Applications

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) is a program sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) aimed at evaluating the global energy balance. Current scanning radiometers used for CERES consist of thin-film thermistor bolometers viewing the Earth through a Cassegrain telescope. The Thermal Radiation Group, a laboratory in the Department of Mechanical Engineering at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, is currently studying a new sensor concept to replace the current bolometer: a thermopile thermal radiation detector. This next-generation detector would consist of a thermal sensor array made of thermocouple junction pairs, or thermopiles. The objective of the current research is to perform a thermal analysis of the thermopile. Numerical thermal models are particularly suited to solve problems for which temperature is the dominant mechanism of the operation of the device (through the thermoelectric effect), as well as for complex geometries composed of numerous different materials. Feasibility and design specifications are studied by developing a dynamic electrothermal model of the thermopile using the finite element method. A commercial finite element-modeling package, ALGOR, is used.

Weckmann, Stephanie↗
DOE OSTI2016

From DNA to FBA: How to Build Your Own Genome-Scale Metabolic Model

Microbiological studies are increasingly relying on in silico methods to perform exploration and rapid analysis of genomic data, and functional genomics studies are supplemented by the new perspectives that genome-scale metabolic models offer. A mathematical model consisting of a microbe’s entire metabolic map can be rapidly determined from whole-genome sequencing and annotating the genomic material encoded in its DNA. Flux-balance analysis (FBA), a linear programming technique that uses metabolic models to predict the phenotypic responses imposed by environmental elements and factors, is the leading method to simulate and manipulate cellular growth in silico. However, the process of creating an accurate model to use in FBA consists of a series of steps involving a multitude of connections between bioinformatics databases, enzyme resources, and metabolic pathways. We present the methodology and procedure to obtain a metabolic model using PyFBA, an extensible Pythonbased open-source software package aimed to provide a platform where functional annotations are used to build metabolic models (http://linsalrob.github.io/PyFBA). Backed by the Model SEED biochemistry database, PyFBA contains methods to reconstruct a microbe’s metabolic map, run FBA upon different media conditions, and gap-fill its metabolism. The extensibility of PyFBA facilitates novel techniques in creating accurate genome-scale metabolic models.

genome annotation↗
NASA NTRS1975

A sensitivity analysis of regional and small watershed hydrologic models

Continuous simulation models of the hydrologic behavior of watersheds are important tools in several practical applications such as hydroelectric power planning, navigation, and flood control. Several recent studies have addressed the feasibility of using remote earth observations as sources of input data for hydrologic models. The objective of the study reported here was to determine how accurately remotely sensed measurements must be to provide inputs to hydrologic models of watersheds, within the tolerances needed for acceptably accurate synthesis of streamflow by the models. The study objective was achieved by performing a series of sensitivity analyses using continuous simulation models of three watersheds. The sensitivity analysis showed quantitatively how variations in each of 46 model inputs and parameters affect simulation accuracy with respect to five different performance indices.

Ambaruch, R.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Preliminary Analysis of SiC BWR Channel Box Performance under Normal Operation

SiC-SiC composites are being considered for applications in the core components, including BWR channel box and fuel rod cladding, of light water reactors to improve accident tolerance. In the extreme nuclear reactor environment, core components like the BWR channel box will be exposed to neutron damage and a corrosive environment. To ensure reliable and safe operation of a SiC channel box, it is important to assess its deformation behavior under in-reactor conditions including the expected neutron flux and temperature distributions. In particular, this work has evaluated the effect of non-uniform dimensional changes caused by spatially varying neutron flux and temperatures on the deformation behavior of the channel box over the course of one cycle of irradiation. These analyses have been performed using the fuel performance modeling code BISON and the commercial finite element analysis code Abaqus, based on fast flux and temperature boundary conditions have been calculated using the neutronics and thermal-hydraulics codes Serpent2 and COBRA-TF, respectively. The dependence of dimensions and thermophysical properties on fast flux and temperature has been incorporated into the material models. These initial results indicate significant bowing of the channel box with a lateral displacement greater than 6.5mm. The channel box bowing behavior is time dependent, and driven by the temperature dependence of the SiC irradiation-induced swelling and the neutron flux/fluence gradients. The bowing behavior gradually recovers during the course of the operating cycle as the swelling of the SiC-SiC material saturates. However, the bending relaxation due to temperature gradients does not fully recover and residual bending remains after the swelling saturates in the entire channel box.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing inference workloads for spatiotemporal modeling

Ensuring power grid resiliency, forecasting climate conditions, and optimization of transportation infrastructure are some of the many application areas where data is collected in both space and time. Spatiotemporal modeling is about modeling those patterns for forecasting future trends and carrying out critical decision-making by leveraging machine learning/deep learning. Once trained offline, field deployment of trained models for near real-time inference could be challenging because performance can vary significantly depending on the environment, available compute resources and tolerance to ambiguity in results. Users deploying spatiotemporal models for solving complex problems can benefit from analytical studies considering a plethora of system adaptations to understand the associated performance-quality trade-offs. To facilitate the co-design of next-generation hardware architectures for field deployment of trained models, it is critical to characterize the workloads of these deep learning (DL) applications during inference and assess their computational patterns at different levels of the execution stack. In this paper, we develop several variants of deep learning applications that use spatiotemporal data from dynamical systems. We study the associated computational patterns for inference workloads at different levels, considering relevant models (Long short-term Memory, Convolutional Neural Network and Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolution Network), DL frameworks (Tensorflow and PyTorch), precision (FP16, FP32, AMP, INT16 and INT8), inference runtime (ONNX and AI Template), post-training quantization (TensorRT) and platforms (Nvidia DGX A100 and Sambanova SN10 RDU). Overall, our findings indicate that although there is potential in mixed-precision models and post-training quantization for spatiotemporal modeling, extracting efficiency from contemporary GPU systems might be challenging. Instead, co-designing custom accelerators by leveraging optimized High Level Synthesis frameworks (such as SODA High-Level Synthesizer for customized FPGA/ASIC targets) can make workload-specific adjustments to enhance the efficiency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Noise and spurious pulses for Cherenkov light detection with 10-inch and 3-inch photomultipliers

A large number of large photocathode area photomultipliers are widely used in astroparticle physics detectors to measure Cherenkov light in media like water or ice. In neutrino telescopes the key element of the detector is the optical module, which consists of one or more photodetectors inside a transparent pressure-resistant glass sphere. The glass sphere serves as mechanical protection while ensuring good light transmission. The performance of the telescope is largely dependent on the presence of noise pulses present on the anode of the photomultipliers. A study was conducted of noise pulses of Hamamatsu 10-inch and 3-inch diameter photomultipliers measuring time and charge distributions of dark pulses, pre-pulses, delayed pulses, and after-pulses. In particular, an analysis on multiple after-pulses was performed on both photomultiplier models. A digital oscilloscope was used to acquire all the pulses after the main pulse during a time window of 16μs for an off-line analysis to determine the charge and time spectra and a correlation between the arrival times and the charge of each after-pulse.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1986

Ocean surface pressure fields from satellite-sensed winds

The University of Washington's planetary boundary layer model is inverted to use remotely sensed satellite scatterometer-derived surface winds as input to calculate maritime surface pressure fields. The analysis of three different synoptic storm situations is performed using the model and is then compared to conventional National Weather Service analyses. Agreement is good. Isolation of the PBL secondary flow, stratification and thermal wind effects in the model revealed that each may be significant under certain conditions. However, the model shows sensitivity to the thermodynamic features only in a general sense and even a neutral stratification solution gives a good approximation. The high density of the scatterometer data produces mesoscale (hundreds of kilometers) dynamic details, which cannot be confirmed by conventional data at this stage.

Brown, Robert A.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Systems Engineering Metrics: Organizational Complexity and Product Quality Modeling

Innovative organizational complexity and product quality models applicable to performance metrics for NASA-MSFC's Systems Analysis and Integration Laboratory (SAIL) missions and objectives are presented. An intensive research effort focuses on the synergistic combination of stochastic process modeling, nodal and spatial decomposition techniques, organizational and computational complexity, systems science and metrics, chaos, and proprietary statistical tools for accelerated risk assessment. This is followed by the development of a preliminary model, which is uniquely applicable and robust for quantitative purposes. Exercise of the preliminary model using a generic system hierarchy and the AXAF-I architectural hierarchy is provided. The Kendall test for positive dependence provides an initial verification and validation of the model. Finally, the research and development of the innovation is revisited, prior to peer review. This research and development effort results in near-term, measurable SAIL organizational and product quality methodologies, enhanced organizational risk assessment and evolutionary modeling results, and 91 improved statistical quantification of SAIL productivity interests.

Mog, Robert A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Space Shuttle Main Engine Implications for the Abort-to-Orbit Off-the-Pad Study

In 2001, the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) project office was contacted by the Space Shuttle Ascent Guidance, Navigation, and Control group to provide the engine perspective for an Abort-to-Orbit (ATO) study. The purpose of the AT0 Off-the-Pad study was to determine the feasibility of eliminating the Return to Launch Site and Transatlantic abort modes by using a five-segment solid rocket booster and throttling the remaining SSMEs to a higher power level. This would enable all abort modes to be Abort-to-Orbit. The SSME project office at Marshall Space Flight Center collaborated with MSFC's Space Transportation Directorate and Rocketdyne Propulsion and Power to provide the AT0 Off-the-Pad study with the analysis required. Power levels at 109%, 1 11% and 1 13% of rated power level were studied as well as mixture ratio decreases down to 5.85. SSME was to evaluate and define the technical and programmatic impacts to certify the SSME to these abort power levels. The SSME systems analysis group performed a steady state analysis using the SSME power balance model to determine if there were any technical issues associated with higher power level, low mixture ratio operation. Based on each power level/mixture ratio combination, an engine certification plan was created and a preliminary probabilistic risk assessment was performed. The results showed favorable results for higher power 1evel/lower mixture ratio SSME operation. In nearly all performance and redline parameters, the traded engine operation was encompassed by nominal engine performance of a prior engine configuration.

Schoffstoll, Dayna L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Considering the Variability of Soiling in Long-Term PV Performance Forecasting: Preprint

This study presents the development of a methodology for evaluating the variability associated with soiling on long-term PV forecasting. Independent engineering firms typically build P50 forecasts for large PV plants through the use of the PVsyst software, where monthly soiling losses are one of many inputs to the P50 model. Subsequently, long-term performance distributions, or Pvalues, are constructed through a Monte Carlo analysis that includes various factors such as: satellite irradiance modeling uncertainty, uncertainty in the PVsyst model, and long-term irradiance variability. Often the PVsyst model uncertainty is increased to account for sites with significant soiling concerns but no systematic method has been presented in the literature to specifically include soiling variability within Pvalues. In this work soiling information from 16 sites in the U.S. Southwest are combined with 20 years of rainfall data to generate 20 years of energy production with soiling losses and then subsequently generate Pvalues. The results show that the spread of Pvalues (P1-P99) can increase from 0-13% when interannual soiling variability is included.

interannual variability↗
DOE OSTI2018

Defining Modeling and Analysis Complexity Needs for Remediation - 18425

Many subsurface remedy decisions rely on model predictions or other types of data analyses to support site characterization and remedy selection, design, implementation, performance assessment, and closure. Thus, determining the appropriate level of complexity for modeling and data analysis is important to facilitate subsurface remedy decisions. Multiple factors are important in selecting the appropriate level of complexity in modeling and data analysis. For instance, the type and number of inputs required typically increases with increased complexity of analysis, and the ability to obtain or verify those inputs needs to be considered. The approach needs to establish the relationship between parameters or processes and contaminant transport and the detail of the description needed to meet the analysis objectives. Assessing the modeling complexity associated with the appropriate level of detail can be facilitated by considering complexity of the 1) modeling approach, 2) description of process, and 3) description of heterogeneity. As demonstrated by case studies, using a framework to guide determination of modeling and analysis complexity facilitates selection of the appropriate approach for the site situation. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity analysis of a parameterization of coagulation in an aqueous transport model

A three-dimensional aqueous transport model, ALGE, was developed at the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) as a tool for emergency response. Recently, coagulation and break-up of sediment and particulate (contaminant adhered to sediment) matter has been added as a new model capability, representing both processes as functions of salinity and turbulence. A sensitivity analysis was performed by comparing time series of sediment and particulate concentrations at various locations when the model’s parameters (particle size and density) are altered. The results show significant differences between experiments in both freshwater and saltwater systems parameters vary (P-values < 0.05). From this sensitivity study, we have concluded the importance of incorporating both salinity and turbulent effects, as they have a large role in the physical process of coagulation and breakup of sediment. By accounting for these physical processes, we have made the ALGE model a more robust tool for emergency response.

Aqueous fate and transport↗
DOE OSTI2016

Critical layers and protoplanetary disk turbulence

A linear analysis of the zombie vortex instability (ZVI) is performed in a stratified shearing sheet setting for three model barotropic shear flows. The linear analysis is done by utilizing a Green’s function formulation to resolve the critical layers of the associated normal-mode problem. The instability is the result of a resonant interaction between a Rossby wave and a gravity wave that we refer to as Z-modes. The associated critical layer is the location where the Doppler-shifted frequency of a distant Rossby wave equals the local Brunt–Väisälä frequency. The minimum required Rossby number for instability, Ro=0.2, is confirmed for parameter values reported in the literature. It is also found that the shear layer supports the instability in the limit where stratification vanishes. The ZVI is examined in a jet model, finding that the instability can occur for Ro=0.05. Nonlinear vorticity forcing due to unstable Z-modes is shown to result in the creation of a jet flow at the critical layer emerging as the result of the competition between the vertical lifting of perturbation radial vorticity and the radial transport of perturbation vertical vorticity. We find that the picture of this instability leading to a form of nonlinearly driven self-replicating pattern of creation and destruction is warranted: a parent jet spawns a growing child jet at associated critical layers. A mature child jet creates a next generation of child jets at associated critical layers of the former while simultaneously contributing to its own destruction via the Rossby wave instability.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Compendium of Wind Statistics and Models for the NASA Space Shuttle and Other Aerospace Vehicle Programs

The wind profile with all of its variations with respect to altitude has been, is now, and will continue to be important for aerospace vehicle design and operations. Wind profile databases and models are used for the vehicle ascent flight design for structural wind loading, flight control systems, performance analysis, and launch operations. This report presents the evolution of wind statistics and wind models from the empirical scalar wind profile model established for the Saturn Program through the development of the vector wind profile model used for the Space Shuttle design to the variations of this wind modeling concept for the X-33 program. Because wind is a vector quantity, the vector wind models use the rigorous mathematical probability properties of the multivariate normal probability distribution. When the vehicle ascent steering commands (ascent guidance) are wind biased to the wind profile measured on the day-of-launch, ascent structural wind loads are reduced and launch probability is increased. This wind load alleviation technique is recommended in the initial phase of vehicle development. The vehicle must fly through the largest load allowable versus altitude to achieve its mission. The Gumbel extreme value probability distribution is used to obtain the probability of exceeding (or not exceeding) the load allowable. The time conditional probability function is derived from the Gumbel bivariate extreme value distribution. This time conditional function is used for calculation of wind loads persistence increments using 3.5-hour Jimsphere wind pairs. These increments are used to protect the commit-to-launch decision. Other topics presented include the Shuttle Shuttle load-response to smoothed wind profiles, a new gust model, and advancements in wind profile measuring systems. From the lessons learned and knowledge gained from past vehicle programs, the development of future launch vehicles can be accelerated. However, new vehicle programs by their very nature will require specialized support for new databases and analyses for wind, atmospheric parameters (pressure, temperature, and density versus altitude), and weather. It is for this reason that project managers are encouraged to collaborate with natural environment specialists early in the conceptual design phase. Such action will give the lead time necessary to meet the natural environment design and operational requirements, and thus, reduce development costs.

Smith, O. E.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Reduced order models for assessing CO 2 impacts in shallow unconfined aquifers

Risk assessment studies of potential CO 2 sequestration projects consider many factors, including the possibility of brine and/or CO 2 leakage from the storage reservoir. Detailed multiphase reactive transport simulations have been developed to predict the impact of such leaks on shallow groundwater quality; however, these simulations are computationally expensive and thus difficult to directly embed in a probabilistic risk assessment analysis. Here we present a process for developing computationally fast reduced-order models which emulate key features of the more detailed reactive transport simulations. A large ensemble of simulations that take into account uncertainty in aquifer characteristics and CO 2 /brine leakage scenarios were performed. Twelve simulation outputs of interest were used to develop response surfaces (RSs) using a MARS (multivariate adaptive regression splines) algorithm (Milborrow, 2015). A key part of this study is to compare different measures of ROM accuracy. We then show that for some computed outputs, MARS performs very well in matching the simulation data. The capability of the RS to predict simulation outputs for parameter combinations not used in RS development was tested using cross-validation. Again, for some outputs, these results were quite good. For other outputs, however, the method performs relatively poorly. Performance was best for predicting the volume of depressed-pH-plumes, and was relatively poor for predicting organic and trace metal plume volumes. We believe several factors, including the non-linearity of the problem, complexity of the geochemistry, and granularity in the simulation results, contribute to this varied performance. The reduced order models were developed principally to be used in probabilistic performance analysis where a large range of scenarios are considered and ensemble performance is calculated. We demonstrate that they effectively predict the ensemble behavior. But, the performance of the RSs is much less accurate when used to predict time-varying outputs from a single simulation. If an analysis requires only a small number of scenarios to be investigated, computationally expensive physics-based simulations would likely provide more reliable results. Finally, if the aggregate behavior of a large number of realizations is the focus, as will be the case in probabilistic quantitative risk assessment, the methodology presented here is relatively robust.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1973

Analysis of response to wind-shears using the optimal control model of the human operator

The effects of wind-shears on the approach performance of a STOL aircraft are analyzed using the optimal-control model of the human operator. This analysis involves a time-varying situation that is more complex than is traditionally treated by human operator modelling techniques. The extensions to the time-varying case are discussed and results are presented that illustrate the effects of wind shears on category II window-performance and the effects on performance of pilot time-delay and of variations in pilot gain during approach.

Baron, S.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Cost-Optimized CCHP Model Developed Using HPDM Meeting Performance Targets

This report documents the equipment design and analysis work to meet the first project milestone (M1). Our industry partner, Emerson Commercial & Residential Solutions recently developed a 3-stage scroll compressor product, able to deliver capacity at three levels without using an inverter. Based on ORNL’s previous cold climate heat pump (CCHP) prototype and the preliminary compressor performance data, the CCHP was redesigned for cost reduction and better performance. The 3-stage compressor, using the middle capacity level to deliver the rated capacity of the heat pump (HP), will replace the previous tandem compressors, using one single-speed compressor to deliver the rated capacity. In this way, it will reduce the compressor footprint to fit in most residential HPs’ chassis. The compressor replacement increases the nominal capacity by 17%. Approximately, 30% cost reduction in the compressor and 17% reduction in the heat exchangers per nominal tonnage can be achieved relative to the prior tandem compressor design. Advanced features using an electronic expansion valve for head pressure control and an Ebm-papst variable-speed, backward-curved indoor blower can be adopted for higher efficiency.The DOE/ORNL Heat Pump Design Model (HPDM) was used to model and redesign the CCHP. Following AHRI 210/240, heating and cooling performance results were predicted at the conditions for certifying a 2-stage CCHP, regarding various design scenarios. The predicted HSPF reaches 12.0, and predicted SEER reaches16.2.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗