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At least 1,603 records · Page 89

Aerodynamic preliminary analysis system. Part 1: Theory

A comprehensive aerodynamic analysis program based on linearized potential theory is described. The solution treats thickness and attitude problems at subsonic and supersonic speeds. Three dimensional configurations with or without jet flaps having multiple non-planar surfaces of arbitrary planform and open or closed slender bodies of non-circular contour may be analyzed. Longitudinal and lateral-directional static and rotary derivative solutions may be generated. The analysis was implemented on a time sharing system in conjunction with an input tablet digitizer and an interactive graphics input/output display and editing terminal to maximize its responsiveness to the preliminary analysis problem. Nominal case computation time of 45 CPU seconds on the CDC 175 for a 200 panel simulation indicates the program provides an efficient analysis for systematically performing various aerodynamic configuration tradeoff and evaluation studies.

Bonner, E.↗

Marshall Space Flight Center's Virtual Reality Applications Program 1993

A Virtual Reality (VR) applications program has been under development at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) since 1989. Other NASA Centers, most notably Ames Research Center (ARC), have contributed to the development of the VR enabling technologies and VR systems. This VR technology development has now reached a level of maturity where specific applications of VR as a tool can be considered. The objectives of the MSFC VR Applications Program are to develop, validate, and utilize VR as a Human Factors design and operations analysis tool and to assess and evaluate VR as a tool in other applications (e.g., training, operations development, mission support, teleoperations planning, etc.). The long-term goals of this technology program is to enable specialized Human Factors analyses earlier in the hardware and operations development process and develop more effective training and mission support systems. The capability to perform specialized Human Factors analyses earlier in the hardware and operations development process is required to better refine and validate requirements during the requirements definition phase. This leads to a more efficient design process where perturbations caused by late-occurring requirements changes are minimized. A validated set of VR analytical tools must be developed to enable a more efficient process for the design and development of space systems and operations. Similarly, training and mission support systems must exploit state-of-the-art computer-based technologies to maximize training effectiveness and enhance mission support. The approach of the VR Applications Program is to develop and validate appropriate virtual environments and associated object kinematic and behavior attributes for specific classes of applications. These application-specific environments and associated simulations will be validated, where possible, through empirical comparisons with existing, accepted tools and methodologies. These validated VR analytical tools will then be available for use in the design and development of space systems and operations and in training and mission support systems.

Hale, Joseph P., II↗

Investing American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Funds to Advance Capability, Reliability, and Performance in NASA Wind Tunnels

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Aeronautics Test Program (ATP) is implementing five significant ground-based test facility projects across the nation with funding provided by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). The projects were selected as the best candidates within the constraints of the ARRA and the strategic plan of ATP. They are a combination of much-needed large scale maintenance, reliability, and system upgrades plus creating new test beds for upcoming research programs. The projects are: 1.) Re-activation of a large compressor to provide a second source for compressed air and vacuum to the Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel at the Ames Research Center (ARC) 2.) Addition of high-altitude ice crystal generation at the Glenn Research Center Propulsion Systems Laboratory Test Cell 3, 3.) New refrigeration system and tunnel heat exchanger for the Icing Research Tunnel at the Glenn Research Center, 4.) Technical viability improvements for the National Transonic Facility at the Langley Research Center, and 5.) Modifications to conduct Environmentally Responsible Aviation and Rotorcraft research at the 14 x 22 Subsonic Tunnel at Langley Research Center. The selection rationale, problem statement, and technical solution summary for each project is given here. The benefits and challenges of the ARRA funded projects are discussed. Indirectly, this opportunity provides the advantages of developing experience in NASA's workforce in large projects and maintaining corporate knowledge in that very unique capability. It is envisioned that improved facilities will attract a larger user base and capabilities that are needed for current and future research efforts will offer revenue growth and future operations stability. Several of the chosen projects will maximize wind tunnel reliability and maintainability by using newer, proven technologies in place of older and obsolete equipment and processes. The projects will meet NASA's goal of integrating more efficient, environmentally safer, and less energy consuming hardware and processes into existing tunnel systems. These include Environmental Protection Agency-approved refrigerants, energy efficient motors, and faster, flexible tunnel data systems.

Sydnor, Goerge H.↗

Performance Characterization of UV Science Cameras Developed for the Chromospheric Lyman-Alpha Spectro-Polarimeter

The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has developed a science camera suitable for sub-orbital missions for observations in the UV, EUV and soft X-ray. Six cameras will be built and tested for flight with the Chromospheric Lyman-Alpha Spectro-Polarimeter (CLASP), a joint National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ) and MSFC sounding rocket mission. The goal of the CLASP mission is to observe the scattering polarization in Lyman-alpha and to detect the Hanle effect in the line core. Due to the nature of Lyman-alpha polarization in the chromosphere, strict measurement sensitivity requirements are imposed on the CLASP polarimeter and spectrograph systems; science requirements for polarization measurements of Q/I and U/I are 0.1 percent in the line core. CLASP is a dual-beam spectro- polarimeter, which uses a continuously rotating waveplate as a polarization modulator, while the waveplate motor driver outputs trigger pulses to synchronize the exposures. The CCDs are operated in frame-transfer mode; the trigger pulse initiates the frame transfer, effectively ending the ongoing exposure and starting the next. The strict requirement of 0.1 percent polarization accuracy is met by using frame-transfer cameras to maximize the duty cycle in order to minimize photon noise. Coating the e2v CCD57-10 512x512 detectors with Lumogen-E coating allows for a relatively high (30 percent) quantum efficiency at the Lyman-alpha line. The CLASP cameras were designed to operate with a gain of 2.0 +/- 0.5, less than or equal to 25 e- readout noise, less than or equal to 10 e-/second/pixel dark current, and less than 0.1percent residual non-linearity. We present the results of the performance characterization study performed on the CLASP prototype camera; system gain, dark current, read noise, and residual non-linearity.

Champey, Patrick↗

Performance Characterization of UV Science Cameras Developed for the Chromospheric Lyman-Alpha Spectro-Polarimeter

The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has developed a science camera suitable for sub-orbital missions for observations in the UV, EUV and soft X-ray. Six cameras will be built and tested for flight with the Chromospheric Lyman-Alpha Spectro-Polarimeter (CLASP), a joint National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ) and MSFC sounding rocket mission. The goal of the CLASP mission is to observe the scattering polarization in Lyman-alpha and to detect the Hanle effect in the line core. Due to the nature of Lyman-alpha polarization in the chromosphere, strict measurement sensitivity requirements are imposed on the CLASP polarimeter and spectrograph systems; science requirements for polarization measurements of Q/I and U/I are 0.1 percent in the line core. CLASP is a dual-beam spectro-polarimeter, which uses a continuously rotating waveplate as a polarization modulator, while the waveplate motor driver outputs trigger pulses to synchronize the exposures. The CCDs are operated in frame-transfer mode; the trigger pulse initiates the frame transfer, effectively ending the ongoing exposure and starting the next. The strict requirement of 0.1 percent polarization accuracy is met by using frame-transfer cameras to maximize the duty cycle in order to minimize photon noise. Coating the e2v CCD57-10 512x512 detectors with Lumogen-E coating allows for a relatively high (30 percent) quantum efficiency at the Lyman-alpha line. The CLASP cameras were designed to operate with 10 e-/pixel/second dark current, 25 e- read noise, a gain of 2.0 +/- 0.5 and 1.0 percent residual non-linearity. We present the results of the performance characterization study performed on the CLASP prototype camera; dark current, read noise, camera gain and residual non-linearity.

Champey, P.↗

Integrated Demand Management: Concepts and Procedures

This report provides a comprehensive description of the Integrated Demand Management concept. Motivation: NASA’s Integrated Demand Management (IDM) research explores the idea that, under certain conditions, time-based flow management (TBFM) arrival operations can benefit from the coordinated use of a strategic traffic management initiative (TMI) to “precondition” the inbound demand. The research was motivated by the observation that TBFM was usually turned off during convective weather, even in facilities where it was routinely used. Our hypothesis was that strategic adjustments to the inbound traffic so that it provided a better match to the off-nominal changes in capacity observed during these conditions could enable TBFM scheduling to continue to provide effective support for arrival traffic management. Concept: IDM proposes that a TMI (e.g., a Collaborative Trajectory Options Program, or CTOP) be used to adjust the rate and/or geographic distribution across flows of the traffic inbound to a high-demand, TBFM-managed airport before that traffic reaches the TBFM planning horizon. After this strategic preconditioning, TBFM can then tactically fine-tune the demand to deliver a well-managed, orderly feed to the destination airport. Coordinated use of these two flow management capabilities is intended to improve system performance in terms of: • Equity of ground delay assignment, avoiding excessive ground delay for TBFM-scheduled departures, without penalizing longer flights; • Throughput, by distributing traffic to maximize use of available capacity; • Predictability for operators, providing advance notice about the impact on individual flights; • Increased flexibility, supporting operator mitigation strategies such as slot swapping or trajectory options; • Efficiency of flight operations, using ground delay more effectively and reducing airborne delay. The operational description in this document highlights how the IDM concept builds upon already existing tools and procedures, and also indicates where tool enhancements could facilitate conduct of IDM operations. However, enhanced tools are not a requirement for concept introduction. In fact, initial deployment that focused on training procedures and rationale for coordinated use of TFMS and TBFM, without changes to existing tools, might be a simpler way to introduce and to familiarize traffic managers with the idea of preconditioning. The concept and procedures described in this document can hopefully provide useful guidance for introduction of IDM into field operations..

IDM↗

Performance Enhancement of the RatCAP Awake Rate Brain PET System

The first full prototype of the RatCAP PET system, designed to image the brain of a rat while conscious, has been completed. Initial results demonstrated excellent spatial resolution, 1.8 mm FWHM with filtered backprojection and <1.5 mm FWHM with a Monte Carlo based MLEM method. However, noise equivalent countrate studies indicated the need for better timing to mitigate the effect of randoms. Thus, the front-end ASIC has been redesigned to minimize time walk, an accurate coincidence time alignment method has been implemented, and a variance reduction technique for the randoms is being developed. To maximize the quantitative capabilities required for neuroscience, corrections are being implemented and validated for positron range and photon noncollinearity, scatter (including outside the field of view), attenuation, randoms, and detector efficiency (deadtime is negligible). In addition, a more robust and compact PCI-based optical data acquisition system has been built to replace the original VME-based system while retaining the linux-based data processing and image reconstruction codes. Finally, a number of new animal imaging experiments have been carried out to demonstrate the performance of the RatCAP in real imaging situations, including an F-18 fluoride bone scan, a C-11 raclopride scan, and a dynamic C-11 methamphetamine scan.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Adsorptive Films in Support of In-field UF6 Destructive Assay Sample Collection and Analysis

International Atom Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguard verification measures in gaseous centrifuge enrichment plants (GCEPs) rely on environmental sampling, non-destructive assay (NDA), and destructive assay (DA) sampling and analysis to determine uranium enrichment. UF6 bias defect measurements are made by DA sampling and analysis to assure that enrichment is consistent with declarations. DA samples are collected from a limited number of cylinders for high precision, offsite mass spectrometer analysis. Samples are typically drawn from a sampling tap into a UF6 sample bottle, then packaged, sealed, and shipped under IAEA chain of custody to an offsite analytical laboratory. Future DA safeguard measures may require improvements in efficiency and effectiveness as GCEP capacities increase and UF6 shipping regulations become increasingly more restrictive. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) DA sampler concept and Laser Ablation Absorption Ratio Spectrometry (LAARS) assay method are under development to potentially provide DA safeguard tools that increase inspection effectiveness and reduce sample shipping constraints. The PNNL DA sampler concept uses a handheld sampler to collect DA samples for either onsite LAARS assay or offsite laboratory analysis. The DA sampler design will use a small sampling planchet that is coated with an adsorptive film to collect controlled quantities of UF6 gas directly from a cylinder or process sampling tap. Development efforts are currently underway at PNNL to enhance LAARS assay performance to allow high-precision onsite bias defect measurements. In this paper, we report on the experimental investigation to develop adsorptive films for the PNNL DA sampler concept. These films are intended to efficiently capture UF6 and then stabilize the collected DA sample prior to onsite LAARS or offsite laboratory analysis. Several porous material composite films were investigated, including a film designed to maximize the chemical adsorption and binding of gaseous UF6 onto the sampling planchet.

destructive assay↗

The Rubin Observatory Target-of-Opportunity System in the First Year of Operations

The NSF/DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory is a discovery machine, with unprecedented survey speed, which can be used to identify exotic astrophysical transients. In its prime mission, the ten year Legacy Survey of Space and Time will use 3% of its total time for Target of Opportunity observations, which includes response to gravitational wave events, high energy neutrinos, potentially-hazardous asteroids, and other astrophysical phenomena. Target of Opportunity observations exist outside of the usual LSST operational mode, requiring special attention to maximize performance. We review the Rubin Target of Opportunity system during its first year of Rubin Observatory operations, the Targets of Opportunity pursued since LSST first light, and the overall efficiency of the system.

MacBride, Sean Patrick [Zurich U.] (ORCID:00000002↗

Power Electronic Development Challenges for High Power Density Integrated Electric Drive Applications

The ever-increasing demand for compact, efficient, and high-performance traction drive systems for transportation applications has accelerated the development of integrated electric drives. In these systems, the electric machine and inverter are integrated within a single housing, offering significant advantages in electrical performance, volume, weight, cost, and overall system efficiency. Despite these benefits, such high levels of integration introduce a new set of challenges, particularly in power electronic design and component selection. This article presents an in-depth investigation of a highly integrated electric drive architecture with an internal stator-mounted inverter, highlighting key design considerations and trade-offs aimed exclusively at maximizing system power density.Based on a comprehensive review of the literature, the power density of a voltage-source-inverter-driven electric drive is primarily governed by the volumetric contributions of the power modules, heat sinks, and DC-link capacitors. Accordingly, this work focuses on the optimization of these three critical components to enhance the inverter's overall power density. The proposed design achieves a power density of 100 kW/L, demonstrating the effectiveness of the presented approach for next-generation integrated electric drive systems.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Cryogenic operation of planar ultrananocrystalline diamond field emission source in SRF injector

Here, we report a demonstration of electron beam generation in a superconducting radio frequency (SRF) Teraelectronvolt Energy Superconducting Linear Accelerator 1.3 GHz gun equipped with a field emission cathode and operated at 2 K. The cathode is a submicrometer film of nitrogen-incorporated ultrananocrystalline diamond [(N)UNCD] deposited atop a Nb RRR300 cathode plug that is 4 mm in diameter. Measurements of the output current showed that it increased exponentially as a function of the gun gradient. Our results demonstrate a feasible path toward simplified fully cryogenic SRF injector technology. At a maximal gradient of 0.9 MV/m, a current density of 22 μA/cm2 was obtained [calculated as a 2.75 μA current over the total cathode surface area of π(2 mm)2]. One important finding is that the electron emitter made of (N)UNCD, a material long been known as a highly efficient field emission material, demonstrated a record low turn-on gradient of 0.6 MV/m. A hypothesis explaining this behavior is proposed.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Hybrid Electrochemical Hydrogen/Metal Hydride Compressor (Final Technical Report)

Various alternatives to traditional mechanical compressor systems have been considered, including MHC and EHC. Both MHCs and EHCs are solid-state systems that have no moving parts other than valves. Both are quiet and have low maintenance requirements. However, strength and material issues as well as water and heat management issues have challenged EHCs, especially, when operated at very high pressures. Similarly, low efficiency, especially, when staging is required to attain high, pressure ratios, has challenged MHCs and has made them too complex and expensive. Material degradation, due to hydrogen impurity effects, has also created issues for MHCs. One novel alternative evaluated here is to combine EHC and MHC technologies in a way to maximize their advantages and to minimize each of their challenges to improve the overall systems performance on a path to meet or exceed current DOE targets. A hybrid EH/MH compressor takes advantage of lower maintenance and operating costs as well as increased reliability associated with both the MHC and EHC technologies over traditional mechanical compressors. Neither the MHC nor the EHC have any moving parts other than valves. The hybrid system also takes advantage of the higher efficiency and lower cost of the EHC by operating at lower delivery pressures combined with the robust and simple operation of a single-stage, MH compressor at higher pressures. Both MHC and EHC technologies are scalable and can be used for a variety of hydrogen compression and delivery applications.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Oak Ridge National Laboratory Annual Sustainability Report 2023

ORNL, managed under contract by UT-Battelle LLC, is DOE’s largest science and energy laboratory and, as such, executes the widest range of mission capabilities. Diverse expertise spans a broad range of scientific and engineering disciplines, enabling research and science achievements to accelerate the delivery of solutions to the marketplace. ORNL supports DOE’s national missions of scientific discovery, clean energy, and security. To execute these activities, ORNL has grown significantly over 80 years of continuous operations, consisting of facilities with commissioning dates ranging from the 1940s to the present—an extraordinary set of distinctive scientific facilities and equipment. The complexities of such a variety of facilities require teamwork among divisions, a wide variety of conservation projects, and creative strategies to achieve the desired energy and water savings. Such a diverse and unique set of major facilities, totaling over 5.5 million square feet, with 6,000 employees, requires an innovative plan to accomplish advancements in operational efficiencies. ORNL is tasked with the management of an extraordinary set of distinctive scientific facilities and equipment for DOE. ORNL is mission-driven, and its mission has grown substantially over the decades. ORNL’s core research capabilities provide broad science and technology support for DOE in the areas of energy, environment, and national security. Currently, ORNL is a world leader in materials, neutron, and nuclear science and engineering, and in high-performance computing and data analytics. ORNL’s vast portfolio of research facilities must be maintained and carefully upgraded to protect the nation’s investment in scientific analysis. The goal of sustainable and resilient operations is to enable more effective execution of ORNL’s science and technology mission. Sustainable operational practices and enhanced resilience strive for excellent results while remaining diligent in energy conservation, environmental stewardship, asset management, and community engagement. The Sustainable ORNL Program (Sustainable ORNL) Continuous improvements in operational and business processes must be integrated into the fabric of the ORNL culture to maximize the return from the investment made in modernizing facilities and equipment. The Sustainable ORNL program promotes the legacy of system-wide best practices, management commitment, and employee engagement that will lead ORNL into a future of efficient, resilient, and sustainable operations. ORNL leadership and Sustainable ORNL champions receive regular status reports on the progress of each project and focus area (i.e., roadmap) and periodic summary reports. More information can be found at the program’s website. The Sustainable ORNL roadmap structure endorses 15 vital roadmaps. The figure below summarizes the current project assignments and demonstrates that each project contributes to the wellbeing of the whole. Continuous employee engagement and regular status reports confirm the ideals of the program. The roadmap structure is not static; as the science mission advances and the needs of the organization evolve, the Sustainable ORNL roadmap structure elements are modified to align with developing priorities. In 2022, Sustainable ORNL made roadmap changes to better align ORNL to support new federal requirements that have been issued.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Discharge Rate‐Driven Li 2 O 2 Growth Exhibits Unconventional Morphology Trends in Solid‐State Li‐O 2 Batteries

Solid-state lithium oxygen batteries (LOBs) are known for their enhanced safety, higher electrochemical stability, and improved energy density compared to liquid-state LOBs. However, the investigation of solid-state LOBs is limited with little understanding of their discharge and charge processes. In this work, a polymer-based solid-state LOB is used to investigate the effect of discharge rate on lithium peroxide (Li 2 O 2 ) formation, the oxygen evolution reaction (OER), and cycle performance. Notably, we observe a counterintuitive trend: Li 2 O 2 particle size increases with increasing discharge current density, in contrast to liquid systems. This behavior arises from inherent space charge layers that restrict Li⁺ transport under high current, and spatially heterogeneous active sites at the solid electrolyte–cathode interface, directly evidenced by small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS), which govern nucleation accessibility and promote site-selective Li 2 O 2 growth. Furthermore, higher current densities improve ORR and OER efficiency but accelerate anode degradation, while lower currents promote side reactions. These opposing effects result in a trade-off that defines an optimal discharge rate (0.1 mA cm -2 ) for maximizing cycle life. This study provides a new mechanistic perspective on discharge-driven processes in solid-state LOBs and offers practical guidelines for performance optimization in future high-energy battery systems.

Discharge current density↗

Autoencoder-Based Anomaly Detection System for Online Data Quality Monitoring of the CMS Electromagnetic Calorimeter

The CMS detector is a general-purpose apparatus that detects high-energy collisions produced at the LHC. Online data quality monitoring of the CMS electromagnetic calorimeter is a vital operational tool that allows detector experts to quickly identify, localize, and diagnose a broad range of detector issues that could affect the quality of physics data. A real-time autoencoder-based anomaly detection system using semi-supervised machine learning is presented enabling the detection of anomalies in the CMS electromagnetic calorimeter data. A novel method is introduced which maximizes the anomaly detection performance by exploiting the time-dependent evolution of anomalies as well as spatial variations in the detector response. The autoencoder-based system is able to efficiently detect anomalies, while maintaining a very low false discovery rate. The performance of the system is validated with anomalies found in 2018 and 2022 LHC collision data. In addition, the first results from deploying the autoencoder-based system in the CMS online data quality monitoring workflow during the beginning of Run 3 of the LHC are presented, showing its ability to detect issues missed by the existing system.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

An insight into actual energy use and its drivers in high-performance buildings

Using portfolio analysis and individual detailed case studies, we studied the energy performance and drivers of energy use in 51 high-performance office buildings in the U.S., Europe, China, and other parts of Asia. Portfolio analyses revealed that actual site energy use intensity (EUI) of the study buildings varied by a factor of as much as 11, indicating significant variation in real energy use in HPBs worldwide. Nearly half of the buildings did not meet the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) Standard 90.1-2004 energy target, raising questions about whether a building’s certification as high performing accurately indicates that a building is energy efficient and suggesting that improvement in the design and operation of HPBs is needed to realize their energy-saving potential. We studied the influence of climate, building size, and building technologies on building energy performance and found that although all are important, none are decisive factors in building energy use. EUIs were widely scattered in all climate zones. There was a trend toward low energy use in small buildings, but the correlation was not absolute; some small HPBs exhibited high energy use, and some large HPBs exhibited low energy use. We were unable to identify a set of efficient technologies that correlated directly to low EUIs. In two case studies, we investigated the influence of occupant behavior as well as operation and maintenance on energy performance and found that both play significant roles in realizing energy savings. We conclude that no single factor determines the actual energy performance of HPBs, and adding multiple efficient technologies does not necessarily improve building energy performance; therefore, an integrated design approach that takes account of climate, technology, occupant behavior, and operations and maintenance practices should be implemented to maximize energy savings in HPBs. As a result, these findings are intended to help architects, engineers, operators, and policy makers improve the design and operation of HPBs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

High-order matrix-free incompressible flow solvers with GPU acceleration and low-order refined preconditioners

In this work, we present a matrix-free flow solver for high-order finite element discretizations of the incompressible Navier-Stokes and Stokes equations with GPU acceleration. For high polynomial degrees, assembling the matrix for the linear systems resulting from the finite element discretization can be prohibitively expensive, both in terms of computational complexity and memory. For this reason, it is necessary to develop matrix-free operators and preconditioners, which can be used to efficiently solve these linear systems without access to the matrix entries themselves. The matrix-free operator evaluations utilize GPU-accelerated sum-factorization techniques to minimize memory movement and maximize throughput. The preconditioners developed in this work are based on a low-order refined methodology with parallel subspace corrections, as described for diffusion problems in [1]. The saddle-point Stokes system is solved using block-preconditioning techniques, which are robust in mesh size, polynomial degree, time step, and viscosity. For the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, we make use of projection (fractional step) methods, which require Helmholtz and Poisson solves at each time step. The performance of our flow solvers is assessed on several benchmark problems in two and three spatial dimensions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A practical method to test the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in logit-based multinomial choice models of travel behavior

Most multinomial choice models (e.g., the multinomial logit model) adopted in practice assume an extreme-value Gumbel distribution for the random components (error terms) of utility functions. This distributional assumption offers a closed-form likelihood expression when the utility maximization principle is applied to model choice behaviors. As a result, model coefficients can be easily estimated using the standard maximum likelihood estimation method. However, maximum likelihood estimators are consistent and efficient only if distributional assumptions on the random error terms are valid. It is therefore critical to test the validity of underlying distributional assumptions on the error terms that form the basis of parameter estimation and policy evaluation. In this paper, a practical yet statistically rigorous method is proposed to test the validity of the distributional assumption on the random components of utility functions in both the multinomial logit (MNL) model and multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model. Based on a semi-nonparametric approach, a closed-form likelihood function that nests the MNL or MDCEV model being tested is derived. The proposed method allows traditional likelihood ratio tests to be used to test violations of the standard Gumbel distribution assumption. Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate that the proposed test yields acceptable Type-I and Type-II error probabilities at commonly available sample sizes. The test is then applied to three real-world discrete and discrete-continuous choice models. For all three models, the proposed test rejects the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in most utility functions, calling for the development of robust choice models that overcome adverse effects of violations of distributional assumptions on the error terms in random utility functions.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗