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Report of the Peer Review Panel for the Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain Flow and Transport Model, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, Revision 0

The stated purpose of the peer review is to determine whether the model, results, interpretations, and documentation are consistent with the requirements of the FFACO Alternative Modeling Strategy and Decision Process for closure of the CAU. The Peer Review Panel was asked to explicitly answer six questions that provide an overview to its conclusions and recommendations. These six questions and the panel’s responses are presented in the next section of this review report. The Peer Review Panel was asked to present and summarize its primary findings by answering six key peer review questions. These questions are as follows: 1.Is the implementation of the AMS technically and regulatorily sound and defensible? 2.Have conceptual models and/or alternatives for groundwater flow and radionuclide transport in the RM/SM system, permissible based upon available data and observations, been identified to support analyses of radionuclide migration away from the testing areas toward potential receptors? 3.Based on available data that include “maximum transport” and “minimum transport,” do the forecasts represent a range of plausible scenarios and address assumptions for parameters that are most sensitive for saturated zone flow and transport? 4.Can radionuclide transport forecasts be used as an aid in evaluating potential exposure pathways, as intended by the AMS? 5.Has the extent of contamination been bounded such that a regulatory decision can be made regarding CAU closure that is protective of human health and the environment? 6.Has anything that influences the protection of human health and the environment been missed?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Application of Synoptic Magnetograms for Prediction of Solar Activity Using Ensemble Kalman Filter

Solar activity predictions using the data assimilation approach have demonstrated great potential to build reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to a non-linear dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. These developments assume an empirical relationship between the mean toroidal magnetic field flux and the sunspot number. Estimated from the sunspot number series, variations of the toroidal field have been used to assimilate the data into the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin (PKR) dynamo model by applying the EnKF method. The dynamo model describes the evolution of the toroidal and poloidal components of the magnetic field and the magnetic helicity. Full-disk magnetograms provide more accurate and complete input data by constraining both the toroidal and poloidal global field components, but these data are available only for the last four solar cycles. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of limited time series observations on the accuracy of solar activity predictions. We present EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗

Dissociation energies and potential energy functions for the ground X {sup 1}Σ{sup +} and “avoided-crossing” A {sup 1}Σ{sup +} states of NaH

A direct-potential-fit analysis of all accessible data for the A {sup 1}Σ{sup +} − X {sup 1}Σ{sup +} system of NaH and NaD is used to determine analytic potential energy functions incorporating the correct theoretically predicted long-range behaviour. These potentials represent all of the data (on average) within the experimental uncertainties and yield an improved estimate for the ground-state NaH well depth of D{sub e} = 15797.4 (±4.3) cm{sup −1}, which is ∼20 cm{sup −1} smaller than the best previous estimate. The present analysis also yields the first empirical determination of centrifugal (non-adiabatic) and potential-energy (adiabatic) Born-Oppenheimer breakdown correction functions for this system, with the latter showing that the A-state electronic isotope shift is −1.1(±0.6) cm{sup −1} going from NaH to NaD.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Training models using forces computed by stochastic electronic structure methods

Abstract Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) can play a very important role in generating accurate data needed for constructing potential energy surfaces. We argue that QMC has advantages in terms of a smaller systematic bias and an ability to cover phase space more completely. The stochastic noise can ease the training of the machine learning model. We discuss how stochastic errors affect the generation of effective models by analyzing the errors within a linear least squares procedure, finding that there is an advantage to having many relatively imprecise data points for constructing models. We then analyze the effect of noise on a model of many-body silicon finding that noise in some situations improves the resulting model. We then study the effect of QMC noise on two machine learning models of dense hydrogen used in a recent study of its phase diagram. The noise enables us to estimate the errors in the model. We conclude with a discussion of future research problems.

Ceperley, David M. (ORCID:0000000150826271)↗

Combined MODIS/AMSR-E SST Composites for Regional Weather Applications

Recent applications of a high resolution MODlS composite SST product have clearly shown the importance of developing high-resolution SST data sets for coastal applications and modeling. In general, coupling between the oceans and atmospheres has been closely linked to SST gradients and fronts, indicating a need for high resolution SSTs, specifically in the areas of large gradients associated with coastal regions. Thus an accurate determination of SST gradients has become critical for determining the appropriate air-sea coupling and the influence on ocean modeling. Recent research is focused on improving the accuracy and spatial coverage of the current operational MODIS SST composite product provided by the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) project and distributed to the community. GHRSST-PP MODlS data and microwave AMSR-E data are being combined to produce composite data sets for both the West Coast and East Coast of the United States, including the Gulf of Mexico. The use of 1 km MODIS data has explicit advantages over other SST products including its global coverage and high resolution. The AMSR-E data will reduce the latency of the composites. A strategy for utilizing the error characteristics contained in the GHRSST data has been developed. This strategy will include using the error characteristics directly to calculate weights in the SST composites, uncertainty maps based on the composite biases and RMS errors, and latency products calculated in the compositing process. Recent accomplishments include the development of an enhanced compositing approach based on the error-weighted combination of recent clear MODIS SST values, where the error contributions come from measurement error, potential cloud contamination, and data latency sources. Future plans call for the inclusion of AMSR-E SST values with appropriate weights based upon measurement accuracy, MODIS-AMSR-E SST bias, and latency.

Jedlovec, Gary↗

Reanalyzing Environmental Lidar Data for Archaeology: Mesoamerican Applications and Implications

This paper presents a preliminary archaeological assessment of extensive transects of lidar recently collected by environmental scientists over southern Mexico using the G-LiHT system of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. In particular, this article offers the results of a first phase of research, consisting of: 1) characterization and classification of the cultural and ecological context of the samples, and 2) bare earth processing and visual inspection of a sample of the flight paths for identification of probable anthropogenic Precolumbian features. These initial results demonstrate that significant contributions to understanding variations in Precolumbian land-use and settlement patterns and change is possible with truly multi-regional lidar surveys not originally captured for archaeological prospection. We point to future directions for the development of archaeological applications of this robust data set. Finally, we offer the potential for enriching archaeological research through tightly coupled collaborations with environmental science and monitoring. Archaeologists in the neotropics can acquire more data, better realize the full potential of lidar surveys, and better contribute to interdisciplinary studies of human-environmental dynamic systems through regionally focused and collaborative scientific research.

Golden, Charles↗

Inference of the optical depth to reionization τ from Planck CMB maps with convolutional neural networks

The optical depth to reionization, τ, is the least constrained parameter of the cosmological Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) model. To date, its most precise value is inferred from large-scale polarized cosmic microwave background (CMB) power spectra from the High Frequency Instrument (HFI) aboard the Planck satellite. These maps are known to contain significant contamination by residual non-Gaussian systematic effects, which are hard to model analytically. Therefore, robust constraints on τ are currently obtained through an empirical cross-spectrum likelihood built from simulations. In this paper, we present a likelihood-free inference of τ from polarized Planck HFI maps which, for the first time, is fully based on neural networks (NNs). NNs have the advantage of not requiring an analytical description of the data and can be trained on state-of-the-art simulations, combining the information from multiple channels. By using Gaussian sky simulations and Planck SRoll2 simulations, including CMB, noise, and residual instrumental systematic effects, we trained, tested, and validated NN models considering different setups. We inferred the value of τ directly from Stokes Q and U maps at ~4° pixel resolution, without computing angular power spectra. On Planck data, we obtained τ NN = 0.0579 ± 0.0082, which is compatible with current EE cross-spectrum results but with a ~30% larger uncertainty, which can be assigned to the inherent nonoptimality of our estimator and to the retraining procedure applied to avoid biases. While this paper does not improve on current cosmological constraints on τ, our analysis represents a first robust application of NN-based inference on real data, and highlights its potential as a promising tool for complementary analysis of near-future CMB experiments, also in view of the ongoing challenge to achieve the first detection of primordial gravitational waves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Parallel database search and prime factorization with magnonic holographic memory devices

In this work, we describe the capabilities of Magnonic Holographic Memory (MHM) for parallel database search and prime factorization. MHM is a type of holographic device, which utilizes spin waves for data transfer and processing. Its operation is based on the correlation between the phases and the amplitudes of the input spin waves and the output inductive voltage. The input of MHM is provided by the phased array of spin wave generating elements allowing the producing of phase patterns of an arbitrary form. The latter makes it possible to code logic states into the phases of propagating waves and exploit wave superposition for parallel data processing. We present the results of numerical modeling illustrating parallel database search and prime factorization. The results of numerical simulations on the database search are in agreement with the available experimental data. The use of classical wave interference may results in a significant speedup over the conventional digital logic circuits in special task data processing (e.g., √n in database search). Potentially, magnonic holographic devices can be implemented as complementary logic units to digital processors. Physical limitations and technological constrains of the spin wave approach are also discussed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Lattice QCD constraints on the critical point from an improved precision equation of state

In this paper we employ lattice simulations to search for the critical point of QCD. We search for the onset of a first-order QCD transition on the phase diagram by following contours of constant entropy density from imaginary to real chemical potentials under conditions of strangeness neutrality. We scan the phase diagram and investigate whether these contours meet to determine the probability that the critical point is located in a certain region on the 𝑇−𝜇 𝐵 plane. To achieve this we introduce a new, continuum extrapolated equation of state at zero density with improved precision using lattices with 𝑁 𝜏 =8, 10, 12, 16 time slices, and supplement it with new data at imaginary chemical potential. The current precision allows us to exclude, at the 2⁢𝜎 level, the existence of a critical point at 𝜇 𝐵 <450 MeV.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Life Cycle Assessment for Closed-Loop Pumped Hydropower Energy Storage in the United States

The federal government has initiated an aggressive set of policies to achieve a net-zero carbon emission goal for the electricity sector by 2050. As a result, rapid growth in deployment of renewable energy technologies is expected. Most commercially mature technologies are temporally variable and do not provide grid inertia, while renewable technologies with high projected deployment have intermittent generation methods. Energy storage technologies are needed to both dispatch power on-demand and help provide the needed grid inertia. Pumped storage hydro (PSH) is a well-established technology that has gained renewed interest in recent years offering energy-balancing, grid stability, control of electrical network frequency, and large-scale storage capacity. For widespread adoption of PSH, more information is needed regarding its current life cycle environmental impacts. The objective of this study is to perform a full life cycle assessment (LCA) of new closed-loop PSH in the U.S. The functional unit for this study is 1 kWh of electrical power delivered to the grid and the base case project lifetime is 80 years. The life cycle inventory for this project accounts for all material and energy flows associated with the green-field construction, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning of a closed-loop PSH plant in the U.S. Collected data represents a range of potential PSH specifications and geographic locations coming from all prospective closed-loop PSH installations in the U.S. with data available. In addition, existing PSH installations are used to provide assumptions for inventory inputs. Results presented will include the global warming potential (GWP IPCC 100a) and Energy Return on Investment (EROI) from our base case (average PSH installation) as well as from scenario analyses and model sensitivity. These results will be compared to the impacts from existing PSH sites and alternate storage technologies. Methods align with the assumptions and guidelines put in place by previous PSH LCAs to ensure an accurate comparison with the results from this report.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDRO ENERGY↗

Mining G.O.L.D. (Geothermal Opportunities Leveraged Through Data): Exploring Synergies Between the Geothermal and Mining Industries

This report analyzes potential collaborations between the geothermal and locatable mineral industries (focused on the portion of the Basin and Range Province within Nevada, United States of America). The objectives of this study included analyzing: 1. The type and quality of data collected by the locatable mineral industry to determine feasibility for geothermal resource exploration; 2. The regulatory pathways and potential barriers that could prevent development of geothermal resources discovered via a mining claim (and vice versa) in the United States; 3. The historical development of geothermal resources discovered via mineral exploration data in the United States and illustrations of co-located mining and geothermal power projects; 4. The value propositions for both the locatable mineral and the geothermal industries to collaborate. This article concludes that many of the data collected by the mining industry as part of locatable mineral exploration (e.g., copper, gold, lithium) would also be useful for identifying and developing previously unknown geothermal resources (and in some notable cases, already have led to geothermal resource development). In addition, for minimal costs, the mining industry could catalogue these data and potentially monetize the data itself or use the data in the future to develop a geothermal project. Leveraging these locatable mineral data to develop geothermal resources and/or co-located minerals and geothermal resources would represent significant cost savings when compared to developing geothermal resources under a business-as-usual scenario as well as compared to current generating technologies (e.g., diesel-powered generators) employed at remote mining operations. Ultimately, leveraging mining industry data, knowledge, and expertise serves to effectively expand the geothermal exploration workforce, increase the rate of geothermal resource discovery, and potentially reduce geothermal electricity's levelized cost of energy (LCOE) by 23%-29%.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Development of molecular dynamics potential for uranium silicide fuels

Use of uranium–silicide (U-Si) in place of uranium dioxide (UO2) is one of the promising concepts being proposed to increase the accident tolerance of nuclear fuels. This is due to a higher thermal conductivity than UO2 that results in lower centerline temperatures. U-Si also has a higher fissile density, which may enable some new cladding concepts that would otherwise require increased enrichment limits to compensate for their neutronic penalty. However, many critical material properties for U-Si have not been determined experimentally. For example, silicide compounds (U3Si2 and U3Si) are known to become amorphous under irradiation. There was clear independent experimental evidence to support a crystalline to amorphous transformation in those compounds. However, it is still not well understood how the amorphous transformation will affect on fuel behavior. It is anticipated that modeling and simulation may deliver guidance on the importance of various properties and help prioritize experimental work. In order to develop knowledge-based models for use at the engineering scale with a minimum of empirical parameters and increase the predictive capabilities of the developed model, inputs from atomistic simulations are essential. First-principles based density functional theory (DFT) calculations will provide the most reliable information. However, it is probably not possible to obtain kinetic information such as amorphization under irradiation directly from DFT simulations due to size and time limitations. Thus, a more feasible way may be to employ molecular dynamics (MD) simulation. Unfortunately, so far no MD potential is available for U-Si to discover the underlying mechanisms. Here, we will present our recent progress in developing a U-Si potential from ab initio data. This work is supported by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Evaluation of data collection bias of third molar stages of mineralisation for age estimation in the living

Abstract Age assessment of the living is a fundamental procedure in the process of human identification, in order to guarantee fair treatment of individuals, which has ethical, civil, legal, and medical repercussions. The careful selection of the appropriate methods requires evaluation of several parameters: accuracy, precision of the method, as well as its reproducibility. The approach proposed by Mincer et al. adapted from Demirjian et al. exploring third molar mineralisation, is one of the most frequently considered for age estimation of the living. Thus, this work aims to assess potential bias in the data collection when applying the classification stages for dental mineralisation adapted by Mincer et al. A total of 102 orthopantomographs, of clinical origin, belonging to individuals aged between 12 and 25 years ($ \bar{\textit x} $ = 20.12 years, SD = 3.49 years; 65 females, 37 males, all of Portuguese nationality) were included and a retrospective analysis performed by five observers with different levels of experience (high, average, and basic). The performance and agreement between five observers were evaluated using Weighted Cohen’s Kappa and the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient. To access the influence of impaction on third molar classification, variables were tested using ordinal logistic regression Generalised Linear Model. It was observed that there were variations in the number of teeth identified among the observers, but the agreement levels ranged from moderate to substantial (0.4–0.8). Upon closer examination of the results, it was observed that although there were discernible differences between highly experienced observers and those with less experience, the gap was not as significant as initially hypothesised, and a greater disparity between the classifications of the upper (0.24–0.49) and lower third molars (>0.55) was observed. When bone superimposition is present, the classification process is not significantly influenced; however, variation in teeth angulation affects the assessment. The results suggest that with an efficient preparation, the level of experience as a factor can be overcome. Mincer and colleague's classification system can be replicated with ease and consistency, even though the classification of upper and lower third molars presents distinct challenges.

de Oliveira Santos, Inês (ORCID:0000000267324347)↗

SNEWPY: A Data Pipeline from Supernova Simulations to Neutrino Signals

Current neutrino detectors will observe hundreds to thousands of neutrinos from a Galactic supernovae, and future detectors will increase this yield by an order of magnitude or more. With such a data set comes the potential for a huge increase in our understanding of the explosions of massive stars, nuclear physics under extreme conditions, and the properties of the neutrino. However, there is currently a large gap between supernova simulations and the corresponding signals in neutrino detectors, which will make any comparison between theory and observation very difficult. SNEWPY is an open-source software package which bridges this gap. The SNEWPY code can interface with supernova simulation data to generate from the model either a time series of neutrino spectral fluences at Earth, or the total time-integrated spectral fluence. Data from several hundred simulations of core-collapse, thermonuclear, and pair-instability supernovae is included in the package. This output may then be used by an event generator such as sntools or an event rate calculator such as SNOwGLoBES. Additional routines in the SNEWPY package automate the processing of the generated data through the SNOwGLoBES software and collate its output into the observable channels of each detector. In this paper we describe the contents of the package, the physics behind SNEWPY, the organization of the code, and provide examples of how to make use of its capabilities.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

SNEWPY: A Data Pipeline from Supernova Simulations to Neutrino Signals

Current neutrino detectors will observe hundreds to thousands of neutrinos from Galactic supernovae, and future detectors will increase this yield by an order of magnitude or more. With such a data set comes the potential for a huge increase in our understanding of the explosions of massive stars, nuclear physics under extreme conditions, and the properties of the neutrino. However, there is currently a large gap between supernova simulations and the corresponding signals in neutrino detectors, which will make any comparison between theory and observation very difficult. SNEWPY is an open-source software package that bridges this gap. The SNEWPY code can interface with supernova simulation data to generate from the model either a time series of neutrino spectral fluences at Earth, or the total time-integrated spectral fluence. Data from several hundred simulations of core-collapse, thermonuclear, and pair-instability supernovae is included in the package. This output may then be used by an event generator such as sntools or an event rate calculator such as the SuperNova Observatories with General Long Baseline Experiment Simulator (SNOwGLoBES). Additional routines in the SNEWPY package automate the processing of the generated data through the SNOwGLoBES software and collate its output into the observable channels of each detector. In this paper we describe the contents of the package, the physics behind SNEWPY, the organization of the code, and provide examples of how to make use of its capabilities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Oxygen Compatibility Testing of Composite Materials

Composite materials offer significant weight-saving potential for aerospace applications in propellant and oxidizer tanks. This application for oxygen tanks presents the challenge of being oxygen compatible in addition to complying with the other required material characteristics. This effort reports on the testing procedures and data obtained in examining and selecting potential composite materials for oxygen tank usage. Impact testing of composites has shown that most of these materials initiate a combustion event when impacted at 72 ft-lbf in the presence of liquid oxygen, though testing has also shown substantial variability in reaction sensitivities to impact. Data for screening of 14 potential composites using the Bruceton method is given herein and shows that the 50-percent reaction frequencies range from 17 to 67 ft-lbf. The pressure and temperature rises for several composite materials were recorded to compare the energy releases as functions of the combustion reactions with their respective reaction probabilities. The test data presented are primarily for a test pressure of 300 psia in liquid oxygen. The impact screening process is compared with oxygen index and autogenous ignition test data for both the composite and the basic resin. The usefulness of these supplemental tests in helping select the most oxygen compatible materials is explored. The propensity for mechanical impact ignition of the composite compared with the resin alone is also examined. Since an ignition-free composite material at the peak impact energy of 72 ft-lbf has not been identified, composite reactivity must be characterized over the impact energy level and operating pressure ranges to provide data for hazard analyses in selecting the best potential material for liquid tank usage.

Engel, Carl D.↗

Assembled genomic and tissue-specific transcriptomic data resources for two genetically distinct lines of Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp)

Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp) is an important legume crop for food security in areas of low-input and smallholder farming throughout Africa and Asia. Genetic improvements are required to increase yield and resilience to biotic and abiotic stress and to enhance cowpea crop performance. An integrated cowpea genomic and gene expression data resource has the potential to greatly accelerate breeding and the delivery of novel genetic traits for cowpea. Extensive genomic resources for cowpea have been absent from the public domain; however, a recent early release reference genome for IT97K-499-35 (Vigna unguiculata v1.0, NSF, UCR, USAID, DOE-JGI, http://phytozome.jgi.doe.gov/) has now been established in a collaboration between the Joint Genome Institute (JGI) and University California (UC) Riverside. Here we release supporting genomic and transcriptomic data for IT97K-499-35 and a second transformable cowpea variety, IT86D-1010. The transcriptome resource includes six tissue-specific datasets for each variety, with particular emphasis on reproductive tissues that extend and support the V. unguiculata v1.0 reference. Annotations have been included in our resource to allow direct mapping to the v1.0 cowpea reference. Access to this resource provided here is supported by raw and assembled data downloads.

Spriggs, Andrew↗