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At least 1,603 records · Page 89

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NASA NTRS2013

Multiaxial and Thermomechanical Fatigue of Materials: A Historical Perspective and Some Future Challenges

Structural materials used in engineering applications routinely subjected to repetitive mechanical loads in multiple directions under non-isothermal conditions. Over past few decades, several multiaxial fatigue life estimation models (stress- and strain-based) developed for isothermal conditions. Historically, numerous fatigue life prediction models also developed for thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) life prediction, predominantly for uniaxial mechanical loading conditions. Realistic structural components encounter multiaxial loads and non-isothermal loading conditions, which increase potential for interaction of damage modes. A need exists for mechanical testing and development verification of life prediction models under such conditions.

Kalluri, Sreeramesh↗

NASA NTRS1979

A maximum likelihood convolutional decoder model vs experimental data comparison

This article describes the comparison of a maximum likelihood convolutional decoder (MCD) prediction model and the actual performance of the MCD at the Madrid Deep Space Station. The MCD prediction model is used to develop a subroutine that has been utilized by the Telemetry Analysis Program (TAP) to compute the MCD bit error rate for a given signal-to-noise ratio. The results indicate that that the TAP can predict quite well compared to the experimental measurements. An optimal modulation index also can be found through TAP.

Chen, R. Y.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Power grid frequency prediction using spatiotemporal modeling

Understanding power system dynamics is essential for interarea oscillation analysis and the detection of grid instabilities. The FNET/GridEye is a GPS-synchronized wide-area frequency measurement network that provides an accurate picture of the normal real-time operational condition of the power system-dynamics, giving rise to new and intricate spatiotemporal patterns of power loads. We propose to model FNET/GridEye grid frequency data from the U.S. Eastern Interconnection with a spatiotemporal statistical model. We predict the frequency data at locations without observations, a critical need during disruption events where measurement data are inaccessible. Spatial information is accounted for either as neighboring measurements in the form of covariates or with a spatiotemporal correlation model captured by a latent Gaussian field. Finally, the proposed method is useful in estimating power system dynamic response from limited phasor measurements and holds promise for predicting instability that may lead to undesirable effects such as cascading outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Micro-Mechanical Constitutive Model to Predict Hygrothermal Aging of Cross-Linked Polymers

Abstract A multi-physics material model is presented to describe the effects of temperature, oxygen, and humidity on the constitutive response of cross-linked polymers. The effect of hygrothermal damage on the mechanical integrity of the polymer matrix can be considered as the result of damage accumulation of two independent aging mechanism namely, i) thermo-oxidative, and ii) hydrolytic aging. In order to capture the mutual effects of thermo-oxidative and hydrolytic aging, an assumption has been made that each of the aging phenomenon can be superposed to each other. In fact, each of them works independently and as a result, they can compete with each other. Utilizing the theory of network decomposition, all phenomena and their correlation were modeled and thus, the strain energy function of the polymer matrix is written with respect to four independent mechanisms, i) the shrinking original matrix that has neither been attacked by water nor oxygen, ii) conversion of the first network to two new network due to the reduction and formation of cross-links, and iii) energy loss from network degradation due to attack of the water molecules to polymer active agents. Moreover, the proposed model is micro-mechanically based and is mainly relevant on thin samples due to our underlying assumption of homogeneous diffusion of oxygen and water throughout the matrix. The model has been validated against extensive data-sets obtained from experiments we specifically designed for concept validation.

Bahrololoumi, Amir↗

DOE OSTI2020

Post-Disturbance Dynamic Distribution System Restoration with DGs and Mobile Resources

Distributed generations (DGs) can act as emergency power supplies when distribution systems suffer from outages. However, the generation capabilities of DGs are generally limited by a number of factors including weather conditions, fuel limitations, etc. In this context, mobile resources that are able to reallocate resources to desired locations are regarded as important complements to conventional fixed DGs in assisting distribution system restoration. In this paper, a distribution system restoration model with DGs and mobile resources is proposed. Firstly, the dispatch and allocation of mobile resources are modeled with respect to the characteristics of the traffic network. Then the developed mobile resource models are integrated into the distribution system restoration model to co-optimize the scheduling of DGs and mobile resources. Uncertainty factors are managed by a model predictive control approach so that system operators can dynamically adjust the restoration strategy with the up-to-date information. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through an IEEE 13-bus test system.

distributed generations (DGs)↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-143: Implementation of a Correction-Based Output Model for a Compact Passively Scattered Proton Therapy System

Purpose: To commission and investigate the accuracy of an output (cGy/MU) prediction model for a compact passively scattered proton therapy system. Methods: A previously published output prediction model (Sahoo et al, Med Phys, 35, 5088–5097, 2008) was commissioned for our Mevion S250 proton therapy system. This model is a correction-based model that multiplies correction factors (d/MUwnc=ROFxSOBPF xRSFxSOBPOCFxOCRxFSFxISF). These factors accounted for changes in output due to options (12 large, 5 deep, and 7 small), modulation width M, range R, off-center, off-axis, field-size, and off-isocenter. In this study, the model was modified to ROFxSOBPFxRSFxOCRxFSFxISF-OCFxGACF by merging SOBPOCF and ISF for simplicity and introducing a gantry angle correction factor (GACF). To commission the model, outputs over 1,000 data points were taken at the time of the system commissioning. The output was predicted by interpolation (1D for SOBPF, FSF, and GACF; 2D for RSF and OCR) with inverse-square calculation (ISF-OCR). The outputs of 273 combinations of R and M covering total 24 options were measured to test the model. To minimize fluence perturbation, scattered dose from range compensator and patient was not considered. The percent differences between the predicted (P) and measured (M) outputs were calculated to test the prediction accuracy ([P-M]/Mx100%). Results: GACF was required because of up to 3.5% output variation dependence on the gantry angle. A 2D interpolation was required for OCR because the dose distribution was not radially symmetric especially for the deep options. The average percent differences were −0.03±0.98% (mean±SD) and the differences of all the measurements fell within ±3%. Conclusion: It is concluded that the model can be clinically used for the compact passively scattered proton therapy system. However, great care should be taken when the field-size is less than 5×5 cm{sup 2} where a direct output measurement is required due to substantial output change by irregular block shape.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Monitoring and modeling hydrologic conditions in Ukraine for hydropower generation

Study region: The Dnieper and Dniester Rivers of Ukraine. Study focus: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has caused disruptions to electricity generation, of which hydroelectric sources contribute approximately 9 % to the country’s needs. With the takeover of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant by enemy forces, the loss of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, and the future impacts of the conflict on electricity generation unclear, it may be valuable for the Ukrainian government to better understand how it could leverage hydroelectric power sources in the near future. Unfortunately, measurements of river discharge throughout Ukraine ceased data collection in the late 1980’s to early 1990’s. To address this data gap, we developed a protocol that combined satellite-based time-series measurements of river width at seven locations throughout Ukraine from 2013 to 2023 with reanalysis data, climate-model predictions, and hydrologic models to both provide a means of monitoring a proxy for near-real-time discharge and also predict near-term (i.e., 2023–2030) hydrologic patterns for the region. New hydrological insights for the region: We ran new algorithms on 144 WorldView-2 and WorldView-3 satellite images to map rivers and extract width, one of which was validated against river gauge data located along the same river but in a neighboring country. Hydrologic models using two climate scenarios found minimal change in annual discharge at all sites, but magnitude and timing of peak discharge showed a moderate trend. The results suggest that hydropower is underutilized in Ukraine.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1983

Evaluation of the synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system

The overall performance characteristics of a limited area, hydrostatic, fine (52 km) mesh, primitive equation, numerical weather prediction model are determined in anticipation of satellite data assimilations with the model. The synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of version 2.0 of this model, the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0), were evaluated. The two part study is based on a sample of approximately thirty 12h and 24h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns during spring and early summer. The synoptic scale evaluation results benchmark the performance of MASS 2.0 against that of an operational, synoptic scale weather prediction model, the Limited area Fine Mesh (LFM). The large sample allows for the calculation of statistically significant measures of forecast accuracy and the determination of systematic model errors. The synoptic scale benchmark is required before unsmoothed mesoscale forecast fields can be seriously considered.

Koch, S. E.↗

NASA NTRS2007

New, Improved Bulk-microphysical Schemes for Studying Precipitation Processes in WRF: Comparisons with Other Schemes - Part 1

Advances in computing power allow atmospheric prediction models to be mn at progressively finer scales of resolution, using increasingly more sophisticated physical parameterizations and numerical methods. The representation of cloud microphysical processes is a key component of these models, over the past decade both research and operational numerical weather prediction models have started using more complex microphysical schemes that were originally developed for high-resolution cloud-resolving models (CRMs). A recent report to the United States Weather Research Program (USWRP) Science Steering Committee specifically calls for the replacement of implicit cumulus parameterization schemes with explicit bulk schemes in numerical weather prediction (NWP) as part of a community effort to improve quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF). An improved Goddard bulk microphysical parameterization is implemented into a state-of the-art of next generation of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. High-resolution model simulations are conducted to examine the impact of microphysical schemes on two different weather events (a midlatitude linear convective system and an Atllan"ic hurricane). The results suggest that microphysics has a major impact on the organization and precipitation processes associated with a summer midlatitude convective line system. The 31CE scheme with a cloud ice-snow-hail configuration led to a better agreement with observation in terms of simulated narrow convective line and rainfall intensity. This is because the 3ICE-hail scheme includes dense ice precipitating (hail) particle with very fast fall speed (over 10 m/s). For an Atlantic hurricane case, varying the microphysical schemes had no significant impact on the track forecast but did affect the intensity (important for air-sea interaction)

Tao, W.-K.↗

DOE OSTI2019

A Comparative Study on Artificial Neural Network, Phenomenological-Based Constitutive and Modified Fields–Backofen Models to Predict Flow Stress in Ti-4Al-3V-2Mo-2Fe Alloy

The flow curve was obtained from the superplastic tensile tests in the temperature range of 1033-1153 K and strain rate range of 0.001-0.1 s{sup −1}. Results showed that strain hardening (SH) was insensitive to deformation parameter variation but with the nature of material, while stable state (SS) and dynamic softening (DS) were significantly associated with a thermal activated process. The occurrence of secondary hardening and softening was attributed to discontinuous dynamic recrystallization. And the generation of necklace microstructure at grain boundaries was caused by bulging. Based on the experimental data, the artificial neural network (ANN), phenomenological-based constitutive (PBC) and modified Fields–Backofen (MFB) models were developed, and their predictability and adaptability for the description of the flow behavior during hot processing were evaluated by analyzing the employed standard statistical parameters. Comparatively, ANN model is capable of tracing the complex flow behavior including SH, SS and DS substages. Concerning PBC model, it can not only predict flow stress with satisfactory accuracy, but also represent the flow trend with the larger strain. MFB model adapts well to the flow curve with a broad SH region without DS effect.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2021

Machine Learning Models to Predict Cognitive Impairment of Rodents Subjected to Space Radiation

This research uses machine-learned computational analyses to predict the cognitive performance impairment of rats induced by irradiation. The experimental data in the analyses is from a rodent model exposed to ≤ 15 cGy of individual Galactic Cosmic Radiation (GCR) ions: 4He, 16O, 28Si, 48Ti, or 56Fe, expected for a Lunar or Mars mission. This work investigates rats at a subject-based level and uses performance scores taken before irradiation to predict impairment in Attentional Set-shifting (ATSET) data post-irradiation. Here, the worst performing rats of the control group define the impairment thresholds based on population analyses via cumulative distribution functions, leading to the labeling of impairment for each subject. A significant finding is the exhibition of a dose-dependent increasing probability of impairment for 1 to 10 cGy of 28Si or 56Fe in the Simple Discrimination (SD) stage of the ATSET, and for 1 to 10 cGy of 56Fe in the Compound Discrimination (CD) stage. On a subject-based level, implementing Machine Learning (ML) classifiers such as the Gaussian Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Networks identifies rats that have a higher tendency for impairment after GCR exposure. The algorithms employ the experimental prescreenperformance scores as multidimensional input features to predict each rodent’s susceptibility to cognitive impairment due to space radiation exposure. The receiver operating characteristic and the precision-recall curves of the ML models show a better prediction of impairment when 56Feis the ion in question in both SD and CD stages. They, however, do not depict impairment due to 4Hein SD and 28Siin CD, suggesting no dose-dependent impairment response in these cases. One key finding of our study is that prescreen performance scores can be used to predict the ATSET performance impairments. This result is significant to crewed space missions as it supports the potential of predicting an astronaut’s impairment in a specific task before spaceflight through the implementation of appropriately trained ML tools. Future research can focus on constructing ML ensemble methods to integrate the findings from the methodologies implemented in this study for morerobust predictionsof cognitive decrements due to space radiation exposure.

space radiation↗

DOE OSTI2022

In with the old, in with the new: machine learning for time to event biomedical research

The predictive modeling literature for biomedical applications is dominated by biostatistical methods for survival analysis, and more recently some out of the box machine learning approaches. In this article, we show a presentation of a machine learning method appropriate for time-to-event modeling in the area of prostate cancer long-term disease progression. Using XGBoost adapted to long-term disease progression, we developed a predictive model for 118 788 patients with localized prostate cancer at diagnosis from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). Our model accounted for patient censoring. Harrell’s c-index for our model using only features available at the time of diagnosis was 0.757 95% confidence interval [0.756, 0.757]. Our results show that machine learning methods like XGBoost can be adapted to use accelerated failure time (AFT) with censoring to model long-term risk of disease progression. Furthermore, the long median survival justifies and requires censoring. Overall, we show that an existing machine learning approach can be used for AFT outcome modeling in prostate cancer, and more generally for other chronic diseases with long observation times.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning-enhanced model-based scenario optimization for DIII-D

Abstract Scenario development in tokamaks is an open area of investigation that can be approached in a variety of different ways. Experimental trial and error has been the traditional method, but this required a massive amount of experimental time and resources. As high fidelity predictive models have become available, offline development and testing of proposed scenarios has become an option to reduce the required experimental resources. The use of predictive models also offers the possibility of using a numerical optimization process to find the controllable inputs that most closely achieve the desired plasma state. However, this type of optimization can require as many as hundreds or thousands of predictive simulation cases to converge to a solution; many of the commonly used high fidelity models have high computational burdens, so it is only reasonable to run a handful of predictive simulations. In order to make use of numerical optimization approaches, a compromise needs to be found between model fidelity and computational burden. This compromise can be achieved using neural networks surrogates of high fidelity models that retain nearly the same level of accuracy as the models they are trained to replicate while reducing the computation time by orders of magnitude. In this work, a model-based numerical optimization tool for scenario development is described. The predictive model used by the optimizer includes neural network surrogate models integrated into the fast Control-Oriented Transport simulation framework. This optimization scheme is able to converge to the optimal values of the controllable inputs that produce the target plasma scenario by running thousands of predictive simulations in under an hour without sacrificing too much prediction accuracy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2021

Cutting out the Middleman: Calibrating and Validating a Dynamic Vegetation Model (ED2-PROSPECT5) Using Remotely Sensed Surface Reflectance

Canopy radiative transfer is the primary mechanism by which models relate vegetation composition and state to the surface energy balance, which is important to light- and temperature-sensitive plant processes as well as understanding land–atmosphere feedbacks. In addition, certain parameters (e.g., specific leaf area, SLA) that have an outsized influence on vegetation model behavior can be constrained by observations of shortwave reflectance, thus reducing model predictive uncertainty. Importantly, calibrating against radiative transfer outputs allows models to directly use remote sensing reflectance products without relying on highly derived products (such as MODIS leaf area index) whose assumptions may be incompatible with the target vegetation model and whose uncertainties are usually not well quantified. Here, we created the EDR model by coupling the two-stream representation of canopy radiative transfer in the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 (ED2) with a leaf radiative transfer model (PROSPECT-5) and a simple soil reflectance model to predict full-range, high-spectral-resolution surface reflectance that is dependent on the underlying ED2 model state. We then calibrated this model against estimates of hemispherical reflectance (corrected for directional effects) from the NASA Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and survey data from 54 temperate forest plots in the northeastern United States. The calibration significantly reduced uncertainty in model parameters related to leaf biochemistry and morphology and canopy structure for five plant functional types. Using a single common set of parameters across all sites, the calibrated model was able to accurately reproduce surface reflectance for sites with highly varied forest composition and structure. However, the calibrated model's predictions of leaf area index (LAI) were less robust, capturing only 46 % of the variability in the observations. Comparing the ED2 radiative transfer model with another two-stream soil–leaf–canopy radiative transfer model commonly used in remote sensing studies (PRO4SAIL) illustrated structural errors in the ED2 representation of direct radiation backscatter that resulted in systematic underestimation of reflectance. In addition, we also highlight that, to directly compare with a two-stream radiative transfer model like EDR, we had to perform an additional processing step to convert the directional reflectance estimates of AVIRIS to hemispherical reflectance (also known as “albedo”). In future work, we recommend that vegetation models add the capability to predict directional reflectance, to allow them to more directly assimilate a wide range of airborne and satellite reflectance products. We ultimately conclude that despite these challenges, using dynamic vegetation models to predict surface reflectance is a promising avenue for model calibration and validation using remote sensing data.

Alexey N Shiklomanov↗

DOE OSTI2019

Measurement of prompt D 0 , D + , D *+ , and DS+$ {\mathrm{D}}_{\mathrm{S}}^{+} $ production in p–Pb collisions at sNN$ \sqrt{{\mathrm{s}}_{\mathrm{NN}}} $ = 5.02 TeV

The measurement of the production of prompt D 0 , D + , D *+, and $D_S^+$ mesons in proton–lead (p–Pb) collisions at the centre-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of \mathrm{\sqrt{s_{NN}}}$ = 5.02 TeV, with an integrated luminosity of 292 ± 11 μb -1 , are reported. Differential production cross sections are measured at mid-rapidity (-96 < y cms < 0.04) as a function of transverse momentum (p T ) in the intervals 0 < p T < 36 GeV/c for D 0 , 1 < p T < 36 GeV/c for D + and D *+ , and 2 < p T < 24 GeV/c for D + mesons. For each species, the nuclear modification factor R pPb is calculated as a function of p T using a proton-proton (pp) reference measured at the same collision energy. The results are compatible with unity in the whole p T range. The average of the non-strange D mesons R pPb is compared with theoretical model predictions that include initial-state effects and parton transport model predictions. The p T dependence of the D 0 , D + , and D *+ nuclear modification factors is also reported in the interval 1 < p T < 36 GeV/c as a function of the collision centrality, and the central-to-peripheral ratios are computed from the D-meson yields measured in different centrality classes. The results are further compared with charged-particle measurements and a similar trend is observed in all the centrality classes. The ratios of the p T -differential cross sections of D 0 , D + , D *+ , and $D_S^+$ mesons are also reported. The $D_S^+$ and D + yields are compared as a function of the charged-particle multiplicity for several p T intervals. No modification in the relative abundances of the four species is observed with respect to pp collisions within the statistical and systematic uncertainties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2016

A simple physiologically based pharmacokinetic model evaluating the effect of anti-nicotine antibodies on nicotine disposition in the brains of rats and humans

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling was applied to investigate the effects of anti-nicotine antibodies on nicotine disposition in the brains of rats and humans. Successful construction of both rat and human models was achieved by fitting model outputs to published nicotine concentration time course data in the blood and in the brain. Key parameters presumed to have the most effect on the ability of these antibodies to prevent nicotine from entering the brain were selected for investigation using the human model. These parameters, which included antibody affinity for nicotine, antibody cross-reactivity with cotinine, and antibody concentration, were broken down into different, clinically-derived in silico treatment levels and fed into the human PBPK model. Model predictions suggested that all three parameters, in addition to smoking status, have a sizable impact on anti-nicotine antibodies' ability to prevent nicotine from entering the brain and that the antibodies elicited by current human vaccines do not have sufficient binding characteristics to reduce brain nicotine concentrations. If the antibody binding characteristics achieved in animal studies can similarly be achieved in human studies, however, nicotine vaccine efficacy in terms of brain nicotine concentration reduction is predicted to meet threshold values for alleviating nicotine dependence. - Highlights: • Modelling of nicotine disposition in the presence of anti-nicotine antibodies • Key vaccine efficacy factors are evaluated in silico in rats and in humans. • Model predicts insufficient antibody binding in past human nicotine vaccines. • Improving immunogenicity and antibody specificity may lead to vaccine success.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Tunable plasmon-enhanced second-order optical nonlinearity in transition-metal dichalcogenide nanotriangles (Final Report for SC0008712)

The control of light-matter interaction at the nanoscale is a grand challenge that cuts across modern photonics, plasmonics, and optoelectronics. The development of simulation tools for predictive modeling of nanostructured light emitters and absorbers is critical to successfully tackling this grand challenge. Existing state-of-the-art tools are not suitable for the following reasons: a) Phenomenological models of materials, commonly employed in the full-wave solutions to Maxwell’s equations, are fit to experimental data for bulk materials and fall short when attempting to analyze nanostructures. b) Nonlinearities in optical response can arise solely from nanostructuring, and require time-dependent quantum electronic transport techniques to capture. c) Emergent materials with exotic and tunable physical properties are increasingly used, but their properties are very sensitive to the substrate, impurities, and edge termination, and require an accurate description of interband and intraband processes, as well as dissipation. d) Microscopic modeling of electronic transport usually employs simplified electrodynamics, and realistic models that couple full electronic transport with full-wave electrodynamics are needed for accurate photonics simulations. The objective of this project was to computational tools that will overcome the limitations faced by current modeling tools and provide an unprecedented level of accuracy for predictive modeling of light-matter interaction at the nanoscale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1993

The 3-D CFD modeling of gas turbine combustor-integral bleed flow interaction

An advanced 3-D Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model was developed to analyze the flow interaction between a gas turbine combustor and an integral bleed plenum. In this model, the elliptic governing equations of continuity, momentum and the k-e turbulence model were solved on a boundary-fitted, curvilinear, orthogonal grid system. The model was first validated against test data from public literature and then applied to a gas turbine combustor with integral bleed. The model predictions agreed well with data from combustor rig testing. The model predictions also indicated strong flow interaction between the combustor and the integral bleed. Integral bleed flow distribution was found to have a great effect on the pressure distribution around the gas turbine combustor.

Chen, D. Y.↗