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NASA NTRS1995

Recent improvements in the NASA technical report server

The NASA Technical Report Server (NTRS), a World Wide Web (WWW) report distribution service, has been modified to allow parallel database queries, significantly decreasing user access time by an average factor of 2.3, access from clients behind firewalls and/or proxies which truncate excessively long Uniform Resource Locators (URL's), access to non-Wide Area Information Server (WAIS) databases, and compatibility with the Z39-50.3 protocol.

Maa, Ming-Hokng↗
NASA NTRS1995

NOAA-11 SBUV/2 measurements of solar UV variations

The SBUV/2 instrument onboard the NOAA-11 satellite made daily solar spectral irradiance measurements in the wavelength region 160405 nm at 1.1 nm resolution between January 1989 and October 1994. These observations continued the uninterrupted series of solar measurements begun by the Nimbus-7 SBUV in 1978 and continued by NOAA-9 SBUV/2. While the measurements made by the SBUV-series instruments furnish an excellent data base for studies of solar UV variability, these instruments do not have an internal mew to evaluate and correct for long-term instrument sensitivity degradation, needed to evaluate solar cycle timescale irradiance change. During yearly Shuttle flights the Shuttle SBUV (SSBUV) also performs solar spectral irradiance measurements in the wavelength region 200 to 400 nm with an instrument that is calibrated preflight, inflight, and postflight. Comparisons between the simultaneous NOAA-11 SBUV/2 and SSBUV solar measurements are used to identify and correct long term sensitivity changes in the satellite instrument. The NOAA-11 data will then be used to evaluate long-term solar change. We present a progress report on the above process. At this preliminary stage uncertainties in the calibration transfer between SSBUV and NOAA-11 SBUV/2 are too large to accurately evaluate long-term solar change near the A1 edge, but solar rotational activity variations can be evaluated. We find that rotational activity declined from roughly 6% peak-to-peak (p-p) near the maximum of solar cycle 22 in 1989-1991 to approximately 3% p-p in mid 1992 and 2% p-p by mid 1994. Emphasizing rotational variations, comparisons between the 200 nm data and the NOAA-11 Mg II proxy index are presented.

Cebula, R. P.↗
NASA NTRS1996

White Paper on SBUV/2 Solar Irradiance Measurements

The importance of solar irradiance measurements by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet, Model 2 (SBUV/2) instruments on NOAA's operational satellites is described. These measurements are necessary accurately monitor the long-term changes in the global column ozone amount, the altitude distribution of ozone in the upper stratosphere, and the degree to which ozone changes are caused by anthropogenic sources. Needed to accomplish these goals are weekly solar irradiance measurements at the operational ozone wavelengths, daily measurements of the Mg II proxy index, instrument-specific Mg II scale factors, and daily measurements of the solar spectral irradiance at photochemically important wavelengths. Two solar measurement schedules are provided: (1) a baseline schedule for all instruments except the NOAA-14 instrument and (2) a modified schedule for the NOAA-14 SBUV/2 instrument. This latter schedule is needed due to the NOAA-14 grating drive problems.

Hilsenrath, Ernest↗
NASA NTRS1997

Analysis of Solar Spectral Irradiance Measurements from the SBUV/2-Series and the SSBUV Instruments

The NOAA-9 SBEV/2 instrument has made the first regular measurements ot solar UV activity over a complete solar cycle, beginning in March 1985 and continuing as of this writing. The NOAA-9 solar irradiance data set includes the minimum between Cycles 21-22 and the current minimum at the end of Cycle 22. Although overall solar activity is low during these periods, 27-day rotational modulation is frequently present. The episode of 13-day periodicity observed during September 1994 - March 1995 shows that phenomena previously associated with high levels of solar activity can occur at any point in the solar cycle. The 205 nm irradiance and Mg II index measured by NOAA-9 showed very similar behavior during the Cycle 21-22 minimum in 1985-1986, when 27-day periodicity dominated short-term solar variations, but behaved differently in 1994-1995 during the episode of 13-day periodicity. We plan further investigations into the physical causes of this result, since it affects the extent to which the Mg II index is an accurate proxy for 205 nm irradiance variations during such episodes. The NOAA-9 Mg II data are available.

Cebula, Richard P.↗
NASA NTRS1997

SBUV/2 Long-Term Measurements of Solar Spectral Variability

The NOAA-11 SBUV/2 spectral solar data have been corrected for long-term instrument changes to produce a 5.5 year data record during solar cycle 22 (December 1988 - October 1994). Residual drifts in the data at long wavelengths are +/- 1% or less. At 200-205 nm, where solar variations drive stratospheric photochemistry, these data indicate long-term solar changes of 5-7% from the maximum of Cycle 22 in April 1991 through the end of the NOAA-11 data record. Comparisons of NOAA-11 data with UARS SUSIM and SOLSTICE for the period October 1991 - October 1994, when all 3 instruments were operating simultaneously, show that the observed long-term variations in 200-205 nm irradiance agree to within 2%. This result is consistent with predictions from the Mg-2 proxy index. The SBUV/2 instruments represent a valuable resource for long-term solar UV activity studies because of their overlapping data records. In addition to the NOAA-11 data presented here, the NOAA-9 SBUV/2 instrument began taking data in March 1985 and is still operating, providing a complete record of Cycle 22 behavior from a single instrument. Three additional SBUV/2 instruments are scheduled to be launched between 1997 and 2003, which should permit full coverage of solar cycle 23.

DeLand, Matthew T.↗
NASA NTRS1996

An Atmospheric Tape Recorder: The Imprint of Tropical Tropopause Temperatures on Stratospheric Water Vapor

We describe observations of tropical stratospheric water vapor q that show clear evidence of large-scale upward advection of the signal from annual fluctuations in the effective 'entry mixing ratio' q(sub E) of air entering the tropical stratosphere. In other words, air is 'marked,' on emergence above the highest cloud tops, like a signal recorded on an upward moving magnetic tape. We define q(sub E) as the mean water vapor mixing ratio, at the tropical tropopause, of air that will subsequently rise and enter the stratospheric 'overworld' at about 400 K. The observations show a systematic phase lag, increasing with altitude, between the annual cycle in q(sub E) and the annual cycle in q at higher altitudes. The observed phase lag agrees with the phase lag calculated assuming advection by the transformed Eulerian-mean vertical velocity of a q(sub E) crudely estimated from 100-hPa temperatures, which we use as a convenient proxy for tropopause temperatures. The phase agreement confirms the overall robustness of the calculation and strongly supports the tape recorder hypothesis. Establishing a quantitative link between q(sub E) and observed tropopause temperatures, however, proves difficult because the process of marking the tape depends subtly on both small- and large-scale processes. The tape speed, or large-scale upward advection speed, has a substantial annual variation and a smaller variation due to the quasi-biennial oscillation, which delays or accelerates the arrival of the signal by a month or two in the middle stratosphere. As the tape moves upward, the signal is attenuated with an e-folding time of about 7 to 9 months between 100 and 50 hPa and about 15 to 18 months between 50 and 20 hPa, constraining possible orders of magnitude both of vertical diffusion K(sub z) and of rates of mixing in from the extratropics. For instance, if there were no mixing in, then K(sub z) would be in the range 0.03-0.09 m(exp 2)/s; this is an upper bound on K(sub z).

Mote, Philip W.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Relative Concentration of He+ in the Inner Magnetosphere as Observed by the DE 1 Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer

With Observations from the retarding ion mass spectrometer on the Dynamics Explorer I from 1981 through 1984, we examine the He(+) to H(+) density ratios as a function of altitude, latitude, season, local time, geomagnetic and solar activity. We find that the ratios are primarily a function of geocentric distance and the solar EUV input. The ratio of the densities, when plotted as a function of geocentric distance, decrease by an order of magnitude from 1 to 4.5 R(sub E). After the He(+) to H(+) density ratios are adjusted for the dependence on radial distance, they decrease nonlinearly by a factor of 5 as the solar EUV proxy varies from about 250 to about 70. When the mean variations with both these parameters are removed, the ratios appear to have no dependence on geomagnetic activity and weak dependence on local time or season, geomagnetic latitude, and L shell.

Craven, P. D.↗
NASA NTRS1995

X-Ray Emission from the Sun in Its Youth and Old Age

We have obtained ROSAT PSPC (Roentgen Satellite Position Sensitive Proportional Counter) pointed observations of two nearby G stars of ages 70 Myr and 9.5 Gyr that are of unique importance as proxies for the Sun at the two extremes of its main-sequence evolutionary lifetime. The younger star, HD 129333 (EK Dra; G0 V), a rapid rotator with a 2.7 day period, is a strong source with an X-ray luminosity L(x)(0.2-2.4 keV) = (7.5-11.5) x 10(exp 29) erg/s. Modeling suggests a two-temperature corona with T(1) = (2.0 +/- 0.3) x 10(exp 6) K and T(2) = (9.7 +/- 0.3) x 10(exp 6) K (formal uncertainties). A continuous emission measure distribution, increasing to higher temperatures and with a cutoff at (20-30) x 10(exp 6) K, yields even better fits to the data. The old star, beta Hyi (HR 98; G2 IV), represents the Sun in the future, near the end of its hydrogen-core burning stage, when it should be rotating more slowly (present P(rot) = 25.4 day) and should have lower levels of activity. The ROSAT measurements yield L(x) = (0.9-3.0) x 10(exp 27) ergs/s and a rather cool, single coronal temperature of T = (1.7 +/- 0.4) x 10(exp 6) K. For comparison, the Sun has L(x) approx. equal to 2 x 10(exp 27) ergs/s and a coronal temperature of about T = 2 x 10(exp 6) K. These stars provide information on the decline of the stellar (and specifically solar) magnetic activity from extreme youth to old age. HD 129333 is also important in that it yields an estimate of the solar soft X-ray flux in the early solar system at the epoch of the terminal stages of planetary accretion.

Dorren, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Using Cross-Correlations of SEUs and AP8 as a Diagnostic Tool

Timely data on low altitude energetic protons is very important for predicting the effect on humans and satellites. Because of the high bioeffectivity of protons in tissue, determination of the geographical location of the south Atlantic anomally (SAA) would be especially useful for reducing the risk associated with extravehicular activities. Because the AP8 model was developed with an epoch several decades old, the location of the south Atlantic anomally is incorrectly positioned in the model. The lack of extensive present-epoch energetic proton data at low altitude has prevented the update of the AP8 proton model. While there are studies in progress which are attempting to update the model at low altitude by using the path-integrated column density of the residual atmosphere as an organizing parameter, success in those studies will be defined by consistency in organization of old data. New data will still be required to provide a good present epoch model. As an alternative to using instrumental measurements of proton fluxes, background effects, proxy data sets such as SEUs, anomalies in instruments, enhanced background in shielded sensors believed to be induced by high energy protons, and dosimeter data in which key parameters (energy, efficiency, geometric factor, shielding, etc.) are poorly known can also be used. This in situ data is not as precise as direct measurement of the proton flux as geometric factor and shielding etc. are not calibrated, but these factors do not affect determination of the location of the SAA.

Vampola, A. L.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Analysis of Solar Spectral Irradiance Measurements from the SBUV/2-Series and the SSBUV Instruments

During this period of performance, 1 March 1997 - 31 August 1997, the NOAA-11 SBUV/2 solar spectral irradiance data set was validated using both internal and external assessments. Initial quality checking revealed minor problems with the data (e.g. residual goniometric errors, that were manifest as differences between the two scans acquired each day). The sources of these errors were determined and the errors were corrected. Time series were constructed for selected wavelengths and the solar irradiance changes measured by the instrument were compared to a Mg II proxy-based model of short- and long-term solar irradiance variations. This analysis suggested that errors due to residual, uncorrected long-term instrument drift have been reduced to less than 1-2% over the entire 5.5 year NOAA-11 data record. Detailed statistical analysis was performed. This analysis, which will be documented in a manuscript now in preparation, conclusively demonstrates the evolution of solar rotation periodicity and strength during solar cycle 22.

Cebula, Richard P.↗
NASA NTRS1997

From Top to Bottom - the Multiwavelength Campaign of V824 Ara (HD 155555)

A great deal of progress has been made in recent years in decomposing the 2-D structure in the atmospheres of late-type stars. Doppler images of many photospheres single stars, T Tauri stars, Algols, RS CV(sub n) binaries to name a few - are regularly published (Strassmeier 1996; Richards and Albright 1996; Rice and Strassmeier 1996; Kuerster et al. 1994). Ultraviolet spectral images of chromospheres appear in the literature (e.g., Walter et al. 1987; Neff et al. 1989) but are less common owing to the difficult nature of obtaining complete phase coverage. Zeeman doppler images of magnetic fields are now feasible (e.g., Donati et al. 1992). Performing Doppler imaging of the same targets over many seasons has also been accomplished (e.g, Vogt et al. 1997). Even when a true image reconstruction is not possible due to poor spectral resolution, we can still infer a great deal about spatial structure if enough phases are observed. However, it is increasingly apparent that to make sense of recent results, many different spectral features spanning a range of formation temperature and density must be observed simultaneously for a coherent picture to emerge. Here we report on one such campaign. In 1996, we observed the southern hemisphere RS CV(sub n) binary V824 Ara (P=1(sup d).68, G5IV+K0V-IV-IV) over one complete stellar rotation with the Hubble Space Telescope and EUVE. In conjunction, radio and optical photometry and spectroscopy were obtained from the ground. Unique to this campaign is the complete phase coverage of a number of activity proxy indicators that cover source temperatures ranging from the photosphere to the corona.

Dempsey, Robert↗
NASA NTRS1998

Study of Magnetic Structure in the Solar Photosphere and Chromosphere

This grant funded an observational and theoretical program to study the structure and dynamics of the solar photosphere and low chromosphere, and the spectral signatures that result. The overall goal is to learn about mechanisms that cause heating of the overlying atmosphere, and produce variability of solar emission in spectral regions important for astrophysics and space physics. The program exploited two new ground-based observational capabilities: one using the Swedish Solar Telescope on La Palma for very high angular resolution observations of the photospheric intensity field (granulation) and proxies of the magnetic field (G-band images); and the other using the Near Infrared Magnetograph at the McMath-Pierce Solar Facility to map the spatial variation and dynamic behavior of the solar temperature minimum region using infrared CO lines. We have interpreted these data using a variety of theoretical and modelling approaches, some developed especially for this project. Previous annual reports cover the work done up to 31 May 1997. This final report summarizes our work for the entire period, including the period of no-cost extension from 1 June 1997 through September 30 1997. In Section 2 we discuss observations and modelling of the photospheric flowfields and their consequences for heating of the overlying atmosphere, and in Section 3 we discuss imaging spectroscopy of the CO lines at 4.67 mu.

Noyes, Robert W.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Propagation and Breaking at High Altitudes of Gravity Waves Excited by Tropospheric Forcing

An anelastic approximation is used with a time-variable coordinate transformation to formulate a two-dimensional numerical model that describes the evolution of gravity waves. The model is solved using a semi-Lagrangian method with monotone (nonoscillatory) interpolation of all advected fields. The time-variable transformation is used to generate disturbances at the lower boundary that approximate the effect of a traveling line of thunderstorms (a squall line) or of flow over a broad topographic obstacle. The vertical propagation and breaking of the gravity wave field (under conditions typical of summer solstice) is illustrated for each of these cases. It is shown that the wave field at high altitudes is dominated by a single horizontal wavelength; which is not always related simply to the horizontal dimension of the source. The morphology of wave breaking depends on the horizontal wavelength; for sufficiently short waves, breaking involves roughly one half of the wavelength. In common with other studies, it is found that the breaking waves undergo "self-acceleration," such that the zonal-mean intrinsic frequency remains approximately constant in spite of large changes in the background wind. It is also shown that many of the features obtained in the calculations can be understood in terms of linear wave theory. In particular, linear theory provides insights into the wavelength of the waves that break at high altitudes, the onset and evolution of breaking. the horizontal extent of the breaking region and its position relative to the forcing, and the minimum and maximum altitudes where breaking occurs. Wave breaking ceases at the altitude where the background dissipation rate (which in our model is a proxy for molecular diffusion) becomes greater than the rate of dissipation due to wave breaking, This altitude, in effect, the model turbopause, is shown to depend on a relatively small number of parameters that characterize the waves and the background state.

Prusa, Joseph M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Bismuth Oxide Nanoparticles in the Stratosphere

Platey grains of cubic Bi2O3, alpha-Bi2O3, and Bi2O(2.75), nanograins were associated with chondritic porous interplanetary dust particles W7029C1, W7029E5, and 2011C2 that were collected in the stratosphere at 17-19 km altitude. Similar Bi oxide nanograins were present in the upper stratosphere during May 1985. These grains are linked to the plumes of several major volcanic eruptions during the early 1980s that injected material into the stratosphere. The mass of sulfur from these eruptions is a proxy for the mass of stratospheric Bi from which we derive the particle number densities (p/cu m) for "average Bi2O3 nanograins" due to this volcanic activity and those necessary to contaminate the extraterrestrial chondritic porous interplanetary dust particles via collisional sticking. The match between both values supports the idea that Bi2O3 nanograins of volcanic origin could contaminate interplanetary dust particles in the Earth's stratosphere.

Rietmeijer, Frans J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Aviation System Analysis Capability Air Carrier Investment Model-Cargo

The purpose of the Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC) Air Cargo Investment Model-Cargo (ACIMC), is to examine the economic effects of technology investment on the air cargo market, particularly the market for new cargo aircraft. To do so, we have built an econometrically based model designed to operate like the ACIM. Two main drivers account for virtually all of the demand: the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and changes in the fare yield (which is a proxy of the price charged or fare). These differences arise from a combination of the nature of air cargo demand and the peculiarities of the air cargo market. The net effect of these two factors are that sales of new cargo aircraft are much less sensitive to either increases in GDP or changes in the costs of labor, capital, fuel, materials, and energy associated with the production of new cargo aircraft than the sales of new passenger aircraft. This in conjunction with the relatively small size of the cargo aircraft market means technology improvements to the cargo aircraft will do relatively very little to spur increased sales of new cargo aircraft.

Johnson, Jesse↗
NASA NTRS1998

Deciphering the Long-Term Trend of Atlantic Basin Intense Hurricanes: More Active Versus Less Active During the Present Epoch

During the interval of 1944-1997, 120 intense hurricanes (i.e., those of category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane damage potential scale) were observed in the Atlantic basin, having an annual frequency of 0-7 events per year, being more active prior to the mid 1960's than thereafter (hence a possible two-state division: more active versus less active), and being preferentially lower during El Nino years as compared to non-El Nino years. Because decadal averages of the frequency of intense hurricanes closely resemble those of average temperature anomalies for northern hemispheric and global standards and of the average temperature at the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland), a proxy for climatic change, it is inferred that the long-term trends of the annual frequency of intense hurricanes and temperature may be statistically related. Indeed, on the basis of 4- and 10-yr moving averages, one finds that there exists strong linear associations between the annual frequency of intense hurricanes in the Atlantic basin and temperature (specially, when temperature slightly leads). Because the long-term leading trends of temperature are now decidedly upward, beginning about the mid 1980's, it is inferred that the long-term consequential trends of the annual frequency of intense hurricanes should now also be upward, having begun near 1990, suggesting that a return to the more active state probably has already occurred. However, because of the anomalous El Nino activity of the early to mid 1990's, the switch from the less active to the more active state essentially went unnoticed (a marked increase in the number of intense hurricanes was not observed until the 1995 and 1996 hurricane seasons, following the end of the anomalous El Nino activity). Presuming that a return to the more active state has, indeed, occurred, one expects the number of seasonal intense hurricanes during the present epoch (continuing through about 2012) to usually be higher than average (i.e., greater than or equal to 2), except during El Nino-related seasons when the number usually will be less than average.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Total solar irradiance variations: The construction of a composite and its comparison with models

Measurements of the total solar irradiance (TSI) during the last 18 years from spacecraft are reviewed. Corrections are determined for the early measurements made by the HF radiometer within the ERB experiment on NIMBUS 7 and the factor to refer active cavity radiometer irradiation monitoring (ACRIM) 2 to the ACRIM 1 irradiance scale. With these corrections, a composite TSI is constructed with a model that combines a magnetic brightness proxy with observed sunspot darkening and explains nearly 90 percent of the observed short and long term variance. Possible, but still unverified degradation of the radiometers hampers conclusions about irradiance changes on decadal time scales and longer.

Froehlich, Claus↗
NASA NTRS1998

Trends in the Annual Frequency of Atlantic Basin Intense Hurricanes: Implications for the Near-Term

During the interval of 1944-1997, 120 intense hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale) have been observed in the Atlantic basin. These intense hurricanes have had an observed annual frequency of 0-7 events per year (having a mean, mode, and median equal to about 2 events per year), being preferentially lower during El Ninio years and higher during non-El Ninio years. Also, it has recently been established that a long-term downward trend in the annual frequency of intense hurricanes, spanning about five decades, has taken place, although this trend can, alternatively, be explained as a shift from a more active state prior to the mid 1960's to a less active state thereafter (rather than as a simple linear decline). In this paper, on the basis of 10-yr moving averages, the long4erm trend of the frequency of intense hurricanes is compared against one for the annual mean temperature at Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland (which serves as a proxy for climatic change). Interestingly, the two sets of 10-yr moving averages correlate extremely well, especially, when incorporating a slight 6-yr lag between them (with temperature leading; r = 0.90). This suggests that the current leading trend of temperature, which had been downward, but now is upward, may portend a return to the more active state for intense hurricanes. Thus, the 1998 season (presuming the abatement of El Ninio prior to the start of the hurricane season), and for several years thereafter (at least, into the early years of the next millennium), may have an annual frequency of intense hurricanes that is commensurate with the previously observed active state that was seen prior to the mid 1960's. If true, then, the shift to the more active state, probably, occurred in the mid-to-late 1980's, apparently, having gone undetected because of the masking, or modulating, effect of El Ninio, which has been rampant since the mid-to-late 1980's.

Wilson, Robert M.↗