Scalable uncertainty quantification for deep operator networks using randomized priors
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Engineering↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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A nudged hybrid analysis and modeling approach for realtime wake-vortex transport and decay prediction
Here, we put forth a long short-term memory (LSTM) nudging framework for the enhancement of reduced order models (ROMs) of fluid flows utilizing noisy measurements for air traffic improvements. Toward emerging applications of digital twins in aviation, the proposed approach allows for constructing a realtime predictive tool for wake-vortex transport and decay systems. We build on the fact that in realistic application, there are uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions, model parameters, as well as measurements. Moreover, conventional nonlinear ROMs based on Galerkin projection (GROMs) suffer from imperfection and solution instabilities, especially for advection-dominated flows with slow decay in the Kolmogorov n-width. In the presented LSTM nudging (LSTM-N) approach, we fuse forecasts from a combination of imperfect GROM and uncertain state estimates, with sparse Eulerian sensor measurements to provide more reliable predictions in a dynamical data assimilation framework. We illustrate our concept by solving the two-dimensional vorticity transport equation. We investigate the effects of measurements noise and state estimate uncertainty on the performance of the LSTM-N behavior. We also demonstrate that it can sufficiently handle different levels of temporal and spatial measurement sparsity, and offer a huge potential in developing next-generation digital twin technologies for aerospace applications.
42 ENGINEERING↗
DeepONet-grid-UQ: A trustworthy deep operator framework for predicting the power grid’s post-fault trajectories
This paper proposes a novel data-driven method for the reliable prediction of the power grid’s post-fault trajectories, i.e., the power grid’s dynamic response after a disturbance or fault. Here, the proposed method is based on the recently proposed concept of Deep Operator Networks (DeepONets). Unlike traditional neural networks that learn to approximate functions, DeepONets are designed to approximate nonlinear operators, i.e., mappings between infinite-dimensional spaces. Under this operator framework, we design a novel and efficient DeepONet that (i) takes as inputs the trajectories collected before and during the fault and (ii) outputs the predicted post-fault trajectories. In addition, we endow our method with the much-needed ability to balance efficiency with reliable/trustworthy predictions via uncertainty quantification. To this end, we propose and compare two novel methods that enable quantifying the predictive uncertainty. First, we propose a Bayesian DeepONet (B-DeepONet) that uses stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo to sample from the posterior distribution of the DeepONet trainable parameters. Then, we design a Probabilistic DeepONet (Prob-DeepONet) that uses a probabilistic training strategy to enable quantifying uncertainty at virtually no extra computational cost. Finally, we validate the proposed methods’ predictive power and uncertainty quantification capability using the New York-New England power grid model.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
A machine learning method of modern urban building energy modeling: A case study of Chicago
Urban-scale building energy modeling is vital for urban planning. However, it can be challenging to assimilate reliable non-geometry building data for urban-scale modeling without extensive investment. Here, this study introduces a novel approach to developing modern urban-scale building energy stock data using geographic information systems and machine learning algorithms without necessarily requiring pre-supplied non-geometric metadata. The proposed framework integrates building footprint and height data to estimate gross floor areas, and matches each building to a pool of candidate records from ComStock or ResStock—filtered to the same county and ranked by geometric similarity—demonstrate a proof-of-concept case study in Chicago for predicting energy use intensity (EUI) using scalable datasets. The model achieved a mean bias error (MBE) of 0.08 kWh/m² and root mean square error (RMSE) of 14.84 kWh/m² under full metadata input for EUI prediction. With only location inputs, the model captured 69.2 % of EUI within predicted ranges. These results demonstrate the model’s potential to support early-stage urban planning, identify candidates for energy-efficient retrofits. By removing the dependency on detailed pre-surveys or extensive building metadata, the approach overcomes a key barrier in traditional urban-scale building energy modeling, illustrating a pathway toward broader and more cost-effective application, though further multi-city validation and improved treatment of pre-1925 buildings are needed.
Energy Use Intensity↗
Dynamic signal recovery in distribution grids using compressive lossy measurements
Distribution system state estimation requires reliable aggregation of the measured data. However, the large volume of the measured data imposes a significant stress on the underlying communication infrastructure. With the challenges associated with measurement availability, current distribution systems are typically unobservable. To cope with the unobservability issue, compressive sensing theory allows us to recover system state information from a small number of measurements provided the states of the distribution system exhibit sparsity. In this paper, we evaluate the robustness of an updated Kalman filtered modified compressive sensing (KF-ModCS) technique that dynamically estimates the grid states using a small fraction of measured data. In practice, measurements used for sparsity based state estimation may also be intermittent due to communication network induced losses. Further, to understand the effect of packet losses on KF-ModCS, we provide an upper bound for the expected variances of the state estimation error for a given rate of information loss. This upper bound is further improved if the support set of the sparse signal that characterizes the state dynamics does not change over time and/or the reduced model is observable. Simulations based on two practical data sets collected from actual customers in a distribution grid validate the theoretical results.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Controls on Barite (BaSO 4 ) Precipitation in Unconventional Reservoirs
Barite (BaSO 4 ) precipitation is one of the most ubiquitous examples of secondary sulfate mineral scaling in shale oil and gas reservoirs. Often, a suite of chemical additives is used during fracturing operations to inhibit the accumulation of mineral scales, though their efficacy is widely varied and poorly understood. This study combines experimental data and multi-component numerical reactive transport modeling to offer a more comprehensive understanding of the geochemical behavior of barite accumulation in shale matrices under conditions typical of fracturing operations. A variety of additives and conditions are individually tested in batch reactor experiments to identify the factors controlling barite precipitation. Our experimental results demonstrate a pH dependence in the rate of barite precipitation, which we use to develop a predictive model including a pH-dependent term that satisfactorily reproduces our observations. Further, this model is then extended to consider the behavior of three major shale samples of highly variable mineralogy (Eagle Ford, Marcellus, and Barnett). This data-validated model offers a reliable tool to predict and ultimately mitigate against secondary mineral accumulation in unconventional shale reservoirs.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Life Cycle Analysis of Growing Canola for Biofuel Production in the United States
This study quantifies and compares the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of renewable diesel (RD), sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), and biodiesel (BD) produced from two U.S. canola production systems: 1) emerging intermediate winter canola, typically grown in double- or relay-cropping systems between the growing seasons of main crops, and 2) main canola, mostly spring canola but also including winter canola, which are grown as primary crops occupying the field for a full growing season. Using the Research and Development version of the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (R&D GREET) model and the most up-to-date life cycle inventory data─field trial data for intermediate winter canola (>37,000 acres) and recent national survey data for spring canola─this life cycle analysis (LCA) estimates the direct emissions from canola cultivation and harvest, the conversion of canola into fuels, fuel transportation, and combustion. In addition, we account for market-mediated emissions associated with a scenario of 0.5 billion gallons per year of spring canola-based biofuels, including induced land use change (ILUC), induced other crop (nonfeedstock) production changes, and induced livestock production changes. For intermediate winter canola, these market-mediated effects were not modeled, as ILUC is expected to be negligible due to its integration into existing rotations, and data are currently insufficient to reliably quantify other market-mediated changes. The estimated life cycle direct emissions of RD/SAF derived from intermediate winter canola and main spring canola are about 32 and 33 g of CO2-equivalent per megajoule of fuel (g CO 2 e/MJ), respectively. Corresponding emissions for BD from intermediate winter canola and main spring canola are about 30 and 31 g of CO 2 e/MJ, respectively. Farming is the dominant emissions source for both canola systems, with intermediate winter canola and main spring canola emitting about 19 and 20 g of CO 2 e/MJ, respectively. ILUC and other induced changes increase emissions of main spring canola-derived RD/SAF and BD by about 18 and 17 g of CO 2 e/MJ, respectively. These results indicate that the GHG emissions of biofuels produced from the two canola systems may differ substantially due to the different land use dynamics of the systems.
biodiesel↗
Interplay between Mixed and Pure Exciton States Controls Singlet Fission in Rubrene Single Crystals
Singlet fission (SF) is a multielectron process in which one singlet exciton S converts into a pair of separated triplet excitons T. SF is widely studied as it may help overcome the Shockley−Queisser efficiency limit for semiconductor photovoltaic cells. To elucidate and control the SF mechanism, great attention has been given to the identification of intermediate states in SF materials, which often appear elusive due to the complexity and fast time scales of the SF process. Here, we apply 14 fs-1 ms transient absorption techniques to high-purity rubrene single crystals to disentangle the intrinsic fission dynamics from the effects of defects and grain boundaries and to identify reliably the fission intermediates. Our data demonstrates that above-gap excitation directly generates a hybrid vibronically assisted mixture of singlet state and triplet-pair multiexciton [S/TT], which rapidly (<100 fs) and coherently branches into pure singlet or triplet excitations. The relaxation of [S/TT] to S is followed by a relatively slow and temperature-activated (48 meV activation energy) incoherent fission process. The SF competing pathways and intermediates revealed here unify the observations and models presented in previous studies of SF in rubrene and offer alternative strategies for the development of SF-enhanced photovoltaic materials.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Use and abuse of correlation analyses in microbial ecology
Abstract Correlation analyses are often included in bioinformatic pipelines as methods for inferring taxon–taxon interactions. In this perspective, we highlight the pitfalls of inferring interactions from covariance and suggest methods, study design considerations, and additional data types for improving high-throughput interaction inferences. We conclude that correlation, even when augmented by other data types, almost never provides reliable information on direct biotic interactions in real-world ecosystems. These bioinformatically inferred associations are useful for reducing the number of potential hypotheses that we might test, but will never preclude the necessity for experimental validation.
Carr, Alex↗
Maximising the investment returns of a grid‐connected battery considering degradation cost
Energy storage systems (ESSs) are being deployed widely due to numerous benefits including operational flexibility, high ramping capability, and decreasing costs. This study investigates the economic benefits provided by battery ESSs when they are deployed for market‐related applications, considering the battery degradation cost. A comprehensive investment planning framework is presented, which estimates the maximum revenue that the ESS can generate over its lifetime and provides the necessary tools to investors for aiding the decision making process regarding an ESS project. The applications chosen for this study are energy arbitrage and frequency regulation. Lithium‐ion batteries are considered due to their wide popularity arising from high efficiency, high energy density, and declining costs. A new degradation cost model based on energy throughput and cycle count is developed for Lithium‐ion batteries participating in electricity markets. The lifetime revenue of ESS is calculated considering battery degradation and a cost–benefit analysis is performed to provide investors with an estimate of the net present value, return on investment and payback period. The effect of considering the degradation cost on the estimated revenue is also studied. The proposed approach is demonstrated on the IEEE Reliability Test System and historical data from PJM Interconnection.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Reflectance determination of optical spectral emissivity of metal surfaces at ambient conditions
Optical pyrometry requires knowledge of both spectral radiance and spectral emissivity to accurately measure temperature. No reliable compendium of spectral emissivity data currently exists for common metals in the optical and near-infrared spectral regions where pyrometry is typically performed. In this paper, we measure the spectral reflectivity of numerous common metals, with known surface finishes, between 400 and 1100 nm. The measurements are carried out under ambient conditions, near 300 K at an atmospheric pressure of ~0.78 bar. We then calculate the emissivity as a function of the wavelength for each sample. We define and use the illumination and collection geometries most practical for applying these measurements to radiometric thermometry. We also examine the effect of surface finish upon the relative spectral emissivity of a given material and find qualitative guidelines for predicting the increase in emissivity with increasing surface roughness. Finally, these measurements can both improve the accuracy and precision of optical pyrometry and provide the necessary reference value for converting emerging diagnostic measurements of relative spectral emissivity under extreme dynamic conditions into absolute dynamic spectral emissivity.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
First systematic study of L-shell opacity at stellar interior temperatures
The first systematic study of opacity dependence on atomic number at stellar interior temperatures is used to evaluate discrepancies between measured and modeled iron opacity [J. E. Bailey et al., Nature (London) 517, 56 (2015)]. High-temperature ( > 180 eV) chromium and nickel opacities are measured with ± 6-10% uncertainty, using the same methods employed in the previous iron experiments. The 10%-20% experiment reproducibility demonstrates experiment reliability. The overall model-data disagreements are smaller than for iron. However, the systematic study reveals shortcomings in models for density effects, excited states, and open L-shell configurations. The 30%-45% underestimate in the modeled quasicontinuum opacity at short wavelengths was observed only from iron and only at temperature above 180 eV. Thus, either opacity theories are missing physics that has nonmonotonic dependence on the number of bound electrons or there is an experimental flaw unique to the iron measurement at temperatures above 180 eV.
74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
Secure and Privacy Aware Data Sharing Approach for Smart Electric Vehicles
The integration of smart electric vehicles (SEVs) into smart cities marks a significant step toward creating efficient, sustainable, and connected urban spaces. However, secure and private data sharing is a major challenge as SEVs connect with smart city systems. The interaction between SEVs and consumer electronic devices (CEDs) raises serious concerns about data security and privacy. Here, to address these challenges, this article presents how blockchain technology and federated learning (FL) can address these issues. The proposed approach provides a secure and privacy-aware framework for data exchange between SEVs and CEDs in smart cities. The experiment results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for secure data sharing and maintaining system reliability in smart city environments. It also enables trust and promotes the widespread adoption of interconnected urban technologies.
Das, Debashis [Meharry Medical College, Nashville,↗
Recent Development of Frequency Estimation Methods for Future Smart Grid
The frequency estimated by the Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) is a critical index of power system status and supports many smart grid applications. The future smart grid features high penetration of renewables and more fast-moving power electronics inverters but raises challenges to the reliable frequency estimation. This article presents three methods to address these challenges. First, an enhanced zero-crossing algorithm was developed to track the fast-changing frequency in system dynamics. Second, we propose a technology that can tolerate the system transient and suppress the outliers. Third, an algorithm was developed to export high time-resolution frequency estimations with minimum computational effort. All of the proposed methods are realized in hardware and compared with classical frequency estimation methods. The testing results indicate that the proposed methods have excellent performance. They can be used in future PMUs and provide reliable and high time resolution data for smart grid applications.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Efficient compressive and Bayesian characterization of biphoton frequency spectra
Frequency-bin qudits constitute a promising tool for quantum information processing, but their high dimensionality can make for tedious characterization measurements. Here we introduce and compare compressive sensing and Bayesian mean estimation for recovering the spectral correlations of entangled photon pairs. Using a conventional compressive sensing algorithm, we reconstruct joint spectra with up to a 26-fold reduction in measurement time compared to the equivalent raster scan. Applying a custom Bayesian model to the same data, we then additionally realize reliable and consistent quantification of uncertainty. Finally, these efficient methods of biphoton characterization should advance our ability to use the high degree of parallelism and complexity afforded by frequency-bin encoding.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Observed and Imputed Volumetric Soil Water Content Timeseries for the New Mexico Elevation Gradient
Reliable soil water content (SWC) data are essential for understanding dryland ecosystem dynamics, but high-frequency SWC sensors often fail, creating gaps in critical datasets. To address this, we developed a Bayesian mixture model that imputes missing SWC using both linear interpolation and an ecosystem water balance model (SOILWAT2), tested across six AmeriFlux eddy covariance tower sites in the New Mexico Elevation Gradient, demonstrating its effectiveness in reconstructing SWC patterns while providing insights into the factors driving SWC variability. Daily volumetric soil water content (SWC) data are provided as csv-formatted spreadsheets for the six AmeriFlux sites (US-Seg, US-Ses, US-Wjs, US-Mpi, US-Vcp, and US-Vcs). For each site there is an observed SWC file (site_SWC_gapfill.csv) and a file that contains imputed SWC (imputed_SWC_site.csv). The observed SWC files contain temperature corrected sensor values, tower precipitation data, as well as outputs from SOILWAT2 simulations that were used to impute SWC. The imputed files contain the original observed SWC values and the imputed missing SWC values. When SWC was missing from the original data, the missing value was imputed based on the Bayesian imputation mixture model. The posterior mean of all imputed values is reported as "mean_X". When the observed SWC was NOT missing, mean_X = observed SWC value (original data). The standard deviation, 2.5th percentile and the 97.5th percentile for the imputed values are also reported in the imputed files. There are readme text files for each file type explaining the contents of each column.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Open and Extensible Control & Analytics Platform for Synchrophasor Data (Final Report)
The objective of the Open and Extensible Control and Analytics (openECA) Platform for Phasor Data project was to develop an open source software platform that significantly accelerates the production, use, and ongoing development of real-time decision support tools, automated control systems, and off-line planning systems that (1) incorporate synchrophasor data and (2) enhance system reliability while enabling the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) operating functions of reliability coordinator, transmission operator, and/or balancing authority to be executed more effectively.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
OR14-V-Uncertainty-PD2La Uncertainty Quantification Workshop Report
The Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) research team held the Uncertainty Quantification for Nondestructive Assay Workshop as part of the Advances in Nuclear Nonproliferation Technology & Policy Conference held in Santa Fe, New Mexico, on September 28–30, 2016. The workshop had 14 speakers, each of whom submitted a paper for publication in the conference proceedings. They gave lectures in the mornings and participated in discussions in the afternoons. Forty-three people from the national laboratories, industry, and academia attended the workshop. Their research interests ranged from uncertainties in nuclear data to uncertainties in human reliability.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗