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DOE OSTI2023

Optimal Frequency-domain Analysis for Spacecraft Time Series: Introducing the Missing-data Multitaper Power Spectrum Estimator

While the Lomb–Scargle periodogram is foundational to astronomy, it has a significant shortcoming: the variance in the estimated power spectrum does not decrease as more data are acquired. Statisticians have a 60 yr history of developing variance-suppressing power spectrum estimators, but most are not used in astronomy because they are formulated for time series with uniform observing cadence and without seasonal or daily gaps. Here we demonstrate how to apply the missing-data multitaper power spectrum estimator to spacecraft data with uniform time intervals between observations but missing data during thruster fires or momentum dumps. The F-test for harmonic components may be applied to multitaper power spectrum estimates to identify statistically significant oscillations that would not rise above a white noise–based false alarm probability. Multitapering improves the dynamic range of the power spectrum estimate and suppresses spectral window artifacts. We show that the multitaper–F-test combination applied to Kepler observations of KIC 6102338 detects differential rotation without requiring iterative sinusoid fitting and subtraction. Significant signals reside at harmonics of both fundamental rotation frequencies and suggest an antisolar rotation profile. Next we use the missing-data multitaper power spectrum estimator to identify the oscillation modes responsible for the complex "scallop-shell" shape of the K2 light curve of EPIC 203354381. We argue that multitaper power spectrum estimators should be used for all time series with regular observing cadence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2003

Upward Flammability Testing: A Probabilistic Measurement

Examination of NASA-STD-6001 Test 1 data suggests burn length outcome for a given environment has a large statistical variation from run to run. Large data sets show that burn length data form cumulative probability distribution curves, which describe a material's characteristic to burn in a specific environment, suggesting that the current practice of testing three samples at specific conditions is inadequate. Sufficient testing can establish material characteristics probability curves to provide the probability that a material will sustain a burn length of at least 15.24 cm (6.0 in.) or will sustain burning until all material is consumed. A simple pasdfail criterion may not be possible or practical. Future application of flammability data for some material classes may require the engineer to assess risk based on the probability of an occurrence and the probable outcome with different materials as characterized with cumulative burn length distributions for specific use conditions.

Davis, Samuel E.↗

DOE OSTI2018

A Statistical Approach to Safety Margin Evaluation of Irradiation Experiments in the ATR

The current safety basis of the INL Advanced Test Reactor requires that irradiation experiments meet minimum safety margins to critical heat flux and flow instability during anticipated reactor fault conditions. Compliance to these requirements may be demonstrated by calculating safety margins using safety factors that account for uncertainties, or using a statistical approach to quantify the uncertainty in the safety margins. Safety margins obtained from the first approach are conservative since the individual events leading to the cumulative safety factor are assumed to occur simultaneously at their maximum uncertainty. The statistical approach is less conservative in the case where the uncertainties are not too large, and may reduce the conservatism resulting from an overabundance of safety factors. This report describes the procedure for safety margin evaluation using a statistical approach and identifies the important thermal-hydraulic variables to consider in an uncertainty analysis. In particular, safety margins to critical heat flux and flow instability are evaluated for three recent high power fueled experiments (MP-1, FSP-1 and AFIP-6) using RELAP5 coupled to RAVEN to perform statistical analysis and uncertainty quantification. The results demonstrate adequate safety margins to critical heat flux and flow instability during an anticipated loss of commercial power to the reactor.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS1970

Statistical complex fatigue data for SAE 4340 steel and its use in design by reliability

A brief description of the complex fatigue machines used in the test program is presented. The data generated from these machines are given and discussed. Two methods of obtaining strength distributions from the data are also discussed. Then follows a discussion of the construction of statistical fatigue diagrams and their use in designing by reliability. Finally, some of the problems encountered in the test equipment and a corrective modification are presented.

Kececioglu, D.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Subscale Test Methods for Combustion Devices

Stated goals for long-life LRE s have been between 100 and 500 cycles: 1) Inherent technical difficulty of accurately defining the transient and steady state thermochemical environments and structural response (strain); 2) Limited statistical basis on failure mechanisms and effects of design and operational variability; and 3) Very high test costs and budget-driven need to protect test hardware (aversion to test-to-failure). Ambitious goals will require development of new databases: a) Advanced materials, e.g., tailored composites with virtually unlimited property variations; b) Innovative functional designs to exploit full capabilities of advanced materials; and c) Different cycles/operations. Subscale testing is one way to address technical and budget challenges: 1) Prototype subscale combustors exposed to controlled simulated conditions; 2) Complementary to conventional laboratory specimen database development; 3) Instrumented with sensors to measure thermostructural response; and 4) Coupled with analysis

Anderson, W. E.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Application of Statistically Derived CPAS Parachute Parameters

The Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) Analysis Team is responsible for determining parachute inflation parameters and dispersions that are ultimately used in verifying system requirements. A model memo is internally released semi-annually documenting parachute inflation and other key parameters reconstructed from flight test data. Dispersion probability distributions published in previous versions of the model memo were uniform because insufficient data were available for determination of statistical based distributions. Uniform distributions do not accurately represent the expected distributions since extreme parameter values are just as likely to occur as the nominal value. CPAS has taken incremental steps to move away from uniform distributions. Model Memo version 9 (MMv9) made the first use of non-uniform dispersions, but only for the reefing cutter timing, for which a large number of sample was available. In order to maximize the utility of the available flight test data, clusters of parachutes were reconstructed individually starting with Model Memo version 10. This allowed for statistical assessment for steady-state drag area (CDS) and parachute inflation parameters such as the canopy fill distance (n), profile shape exponent (expopen), over-inflation factor (C(sub k)), and ramp-down time (t(sub k)) distributions. Built-in MATLAB distributions were applied to the histograms, and parameters such as scale (sigma) and location (mu) were output. Engineering judgment was used to determine the "best fit" distribution based on the test data. Results include normal, log normal, and uniform (where available data remains insufficient) fits of nominal and failure (loss of parachute and skipped stage) cases for all CPAS parachutes. This paper discusses the uniform methodology that was previously used, the process and result of the statistical assessment, how the dispersions were incorporated into Monte Carlo analyses, and the application of the distributions in trajectory benchmark testing assessments with parachute inflation parameters, drag area, and reefing cutter timing used by CPAS.

Romero, Leah M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Use of Statistical Analysis of Acoustic Emission Data on Carbon-Epoxy COPV Materials-of-Construction for Enhanced Felicity Ratio Onset Determination

Broadband modal acoustic emission (AE) data were acquired during intermittent load hold tensile test profiles on Toray T1000G carbon fiber-reinforced epoxy (C/Ep) single tow specimens. A novel trend seeking statistical method to determine the onset of significant AE was developed, resulting in more linear decreases in the Felicity ratio (FR) with load, potentially leading to more accurate failure prediction. The method developed uses an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart. Comparison of the EWMA with previously used FR onset methods, namely the discrete (n), mean (n (raised bar)), normalized (n%) and normalized mean (n(raised bar)%) methods, revealed the EWMA method yields more consistently linear FR versus load relationships between specimens. Other findings include a correlation between AE data richness and FR linearity based on the FR methods discussed in this paper, and evidence of premature failure at lower than expected loads. Application of the EWMA method should be extended to other composite materials and, eventually, composite components such as composite overwrapped pressure vessels. Furthermore, future experiments should attempt to uncover the factors responsible for infant mortality in C/Ep strands.

Abraham, Arick Reed A.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Deep mixing in stellar variability: improved method, statistics, and applications

The preliminary results on deep-mixing manifestations in stellar variability are tested using our improved method and extended data set. We measure the timescales τ {sub m} of the stochastic change in the spectral power of rotational harmonics with numbers m ≤ 3 in the light curves of 1361 main-sequence stars from the Kepler mission archive. We find that the gradient [log(τ{sub 2})−log(τ{sub 1})]/[log(2)−log(1)] has a histogram maximum at −2/3, demonstrating agreement with Kolmogorov’s theory of turbulence and therefore confirming the manifestation of deep mixing. The squared amplitudes of the first and second rotational harmonics, corrected for integral photometry distortion, also show a quasi-Kolmogorov character with spectral index ≈−5/3. Moreover, the reduction of τ {sub 1} and τ {sub 2} to the timescales τ {sub lam1} and τ {sub lam2} of laminar convection in the deep stellar layers reveals the proximity of both τ {sub lam1} and τ {sub lam2} to the turnover time τ {sub MLT} of standard mixing length theory. Considering this result, we use the obtained stellar variability timescales instead of τ {sub MLT} in our analysis of the relation between stellar activity and the Rossby number P/τ {sub MLT}. Comparison of our diagrams with previous results and theoretical expectations shows that best-fit correspondence is achieved for τ {sub lam1}, which can therefore be used as an analog of τ {sub MLT}. This means that the laminar component (giant cells) of stellar turbulent convection indeed plays an important role in the physics of stars. Additionally, we estimate the diffusivity of magnetic elements in stellar photospheres.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

WE-FG-202-03: Quantitative CT-Based Analysis to Assess Lung Injury Following Proton Radiotherapy

Purpose: Relative to photon alternatives, the increased dose-conformity associated with proton therapy is expected to reduce the extent of radiation-induced lung toxicity. However, analysis of follow-up data is yet to be published in this area. In this study we retrospectively analyzed late-phase HU changes for proton therapy cohorts of chest wall and lung patients. Methods: From our institution’s register of patients treated using double-scattered protons, all chest wall and stereotactic lung cases (treated 2011–2012 and 2008–2014 respectively) were initially considered. Follow-up CT data were accessible for 10 chest wall cases (prescribed 50.4 GyRBE in 28 fractions) and 16 lung cases (prescribed 42–50 GyRBE in 3–4 fractions). CT time-points ranged from 0.5–3.5 years post-treatment. Planning doses were recalculated using TOPAS Monte Carlo simulations and mapped onto the follow-up images using deformable registration. Excluding internal target volumes, changes in HU between each patient’s planning and follow-up CT(s) were evaluated for dose bins of 2–30 GyRBE (2 GyRBE increments). Results: Linear increases in HU per unit dose, with correlations statistically significant at the 1% level (one-sided Spearman’s rank test), were evident for all 10 chest wall cases and 14/16 lung cases. The mean changes in HU/Gy were: 1.76 (SD=0.73) for the chest wall cohort, and 1.40 (SD=0.87) for the lung cohort. The median scan times post treatment were 21 and 12 months respectively. All 26 patients developed solid consolidation (scar-like radiographic opacities) within the exposed lung(s). Conclusion: Analysis of follow-up CTs revealed statistically significant correlations in HU-change/dose for two proton cohorts (lung and chest wall). Quantitatively, the late-phase changes we report broadly match published photon data. Further analysis of such radiographic changes, particularly via matched cohort studies drawing upon consistent imaging protocols, could play an important role in elucidating inter-modality differences and provide insight into proton RBE for lung injury. Tracy Underwood gratefully acknowledges the support of the European Commission under an FP7 Marie Curie International Outgoing Fellowship for Career Development (#630064). This work was also funded under U19 grant CA 021239 (PI: Delaney).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1976

Evaluation of classification procedures for estimating wheat acreage in Kansas

This report presents the results of experiments which were performed to evaluate procedures for estimating wheat acreage in intensive test sites (ITS's) in Kansas. An analyst/interpreter (AI) selected and labeled fields from Landsat-1 satellite imagery. Statistics were generated for each selected ITS, and the imagery was classified using a maximum likelihood classifier. Various components of the classification process were tested.

Flores, L. M.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Improved silicon nitride for advanced heat engines

The technology base required to fabricate silicon nitride components with the strength, reliability, and reproducibility necessary for actual heat engine applications is presented. Task 2 was set up to develop test bars with high Weibull slope and greater high temperature strength, and to conduct an initial net shape component fabrication evaluation. Screening experiments were performed in Task 7 on advanced materials and processing for input to Task 2. The technical efforts performed in the second year of a 5-yr program are covered. The first iteration of Task 2 was completed as planned. Two half-replicated, fractional factorial (2 sup 5), statistically designed matrix experiments were conducted. These experiments have identified Denka 9FW Si3N4 as an alternate raw material to GTE SN502 Si3N4 for subsequent process evaluation. A detailed statistical analysis was conducted to correlate processing conditions with as-processed test bar properties. One processing condition produced a material with a 97 ksi average room temperature MOR (100 percent of goal) with 13.2 Weibull slope (83 percent of goal); another condition produced 86 ksi (6 percent over baseline) room temperature strength with a Weibull slope of 20 (125 percent of goal).

Yeh, Hun C.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Statistical Symbolic Execution with Informed Sampling

Symbolic execution techniques have been proposed recently for the probabilistic analysis of programs. These techniques seek to quantify the likelihood of reaching program events of interest, e.g., assert violations. They have many promising applications but have scalability issues due to high computational demand. To address this challenge, we propose a statistical symbolic execution technique that performs Monte Carlo sampling of the symbolic program paths and uses the obtained information for Bayesian estimation and hypothesis testing with respect to the probability of reaching the target events. To speed up the convergence of the statistical analysis, we propose Informed Sampling, an iterative symbolic execution that first explores the paths that have high statistical significance, prunes them from the state space and guides the execution towards less likely paths. The technique combines Bayesian estimation with a partial exact analysis for the pruned paths leading to provably improved convergence of the statistical analysis. We have implemented statistical symbolic execution with in- formed sampling in the Symbolic PathFinder tool. We show experimentally that the informed sampling obtains more precise results and converges faster than a purely statistical analysis and may also be more efficient than an exact symbolic analysis. When the latter does not terminate symbolic execution with informed sampling can give meaningful results under the same time and memory limits.

Reliability↗

DOE OSTI2024

Susceptibility of pESI positive Salmonella to treatment with biocide chemicals approved for use in poultry meat processing as compared to Salmonella without the pESI plasmid

Abstract Salmonella is a common cause of human foodborne illness, which is frequently associated with consumption of contaminated or undercooked poultry meat. Serotype Infantis is among the most common serotypes isolated from poultry meat products globally. Isolates of serotype Infantis carrying the pESI plasmid, the most dominant strain of Infantis, have been shown to exhibit oxidizer tolerance. Therefore, 16 strains of Salmonella with and without pESI carriage were investigated for susceptibility to biocide chemical processing aids approved for use in US poultry meat processing: peracetic acid (PAA), cetylpyridinium chloride (CPC), calcium hypochlorite, and sodium hypochlorite. Strains were exposed for 15 s to simulate spray application and 90 min to simulate application in an immersion chiller. All strains tested were susceptible to all concentrations of PAA, CPC, and sodium hypochlorite when applied for 90 min. When CPC, calcium hypochlorite, and sodium hypochlorite were applied for 15 s to simulate spray time, strains responded similarly to each other. However, strains responded variably to exposure to PAA. The variation was not statistically significant and appears unrelated to pESI carriage. Results highlight the necessity of testing biocide susceptibility in the presence of organic material and in relevant in situ applications.

Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology↗

DOE OSTI2015

Expert Consensus Contouring Guidelines for Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy in Esophageal and Gastroesophageal Junction Cancer

Purpose/Objective(s): Current guidelines for esophageal cancer contouring are derived from traditional 2-dimensional fields based on bony landmarks, and they do not provide sufficient anatomic detail to ensure consistent contouring for more conformal radiation therapy techniques such as intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). Therefore, we convened an expert panel with the specific aim to derive contouring guidelines and generate an atlas for the clinical target volume (CTV) in esophageal or gastroesophageal junction (GEJ) cancer. Methods and Materials: Eight expert academically based gastrointestinal radiation oncologists participated. Three sample cases were chosen: a GEJ cancer, a distal esophageal cancer, and a mid-upper esophageal cancer. Uniform computed tomographic (CT) simulation datasets and accompanying diagnostic positron emission tomographic/CT images were distributed to each expert, and the expert was instructed to generate gross tumor volume (GTV) and CTV contours for each case. All contours were aggregated and subjected to quantitative analysis to assess the degree of concordance between experts and to generate draft consensus contours. The panel then refined these contours to generate the contouring atlas. Results: The κ statistics indicated substantial agreement between panelists for each of the 3 test cases. A consensus CTV atlas was generated for the 3 test cases, each representing common anatomic presentations of esophageal cancer. The panel agreed on guidelines and principles to facilitate the generalizability of the atlas to individual cases. Conclusions: This expert panel successfully reached agreement on contouring guidelines for esophageal and GEJ IMRT and generated a reference CTV atlas. This atlas will serve as a reference for IMRT contours for clinical practice and prospective trial design. Subsequent patterns of failure analyses of clinical datasets using these guidelines may require modification in the future.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

NASA NTRS2022

Using Trajectory Smoothness Metrics to Identify Drones in Radar Track Data

The identification of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) using trajectory data is considered. Specifically, a number of smoothness metrics are proposed, which can be used to distinguish UAS from other aerial objects even when they are engaged in accelerative maneuvers (non-constant-velocity flight). The metrics are evaluated on a data set from a UAS sense-and-avoid field test, which contains track data of aerial objects recorded by a vehicle-board radar system during a flight test. The metrics are found to effectively differentiate UAS from other objects such as birds for this data set. In addition, an initial statistical performance analysis of one of the smoothness metrics is undertaken, using 15 data sets deriving from multiple flight tests. The smoothness metric is shown to identify the target UAS with 95% accuracy (95% true positive rate), while achieving a false positive rate of less than 9%.

Sandip Roy↗

DOE OSTI2015

Study of muon-induced neutron production using accelerator muon beam at CERN

Cosmogenic muon-induced neutrons are one of the most problematic backgrounds for various underground experiments for rare event searches. In order to accurately understand such backgrounds, experimental data with high-statistics and well-controlled systematics is essential. We performed a test experiment to measure muon-induced neutron production yield and energy spectrum using a high-energy accelerator muon beam at CERN. We successfully observed neutrons from 160 GeV/c muon interaction on lead, and measured kinetic energy distributions for various production angles. Works towards evaluation of absolute neutron production yield is underway. This work also demonstrates that the setup is feasible for a future large-scale experiment for more comprehensive study of muon-induced neutron production.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Statistics-Based Threshold for the RMS-Energy Oscillation Detector

System operators and reliability coordinators currently rely on extensive baselining studies to set thresholds for their oscillation detectors. The resulting thresholds are based largely on engineering judgment and may vary significantly between organizations. In this paper, statistical distribution theory is used to derive a detection threshold for the widely deployed root-mean-square (RMS)-energy detector. This expression provides a theoretical basis for the detector's configuration, simplifies the process of selecting the threshold, and enables improved consistency among organizations that need to coordinate during system-wide events. Three methods for calculating the threshold using synchrophasor measurements are also proposed. These methods ensure that the threshold can be calculated reliably for various applications. Tests with simulated and field-measured data demonstrate that the statistics-based threshold provides consistent detection of grid disturbances while maintaining a low probability of false alarm.

Follum, James D.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Systematic assessment of wellbore integrity for geologic carbon storage projects using regulatory and industry information

Under this three year project, the condition of legacy oil and gas wells in the Midwest United States was evaluated through analysis of well records, well plugging information, CBL evaluation, sustained casing pressure (SCP) field testing, and analysis of hypothetical CO 2 test areas to provide a realistic description of wellbore integrity factors. The research included a state-wide review of oil and gas well records for Ohio and Michigan, along with more detailed testing of wells in Ohio. Results concluded that oil and gas wells are clustered along fields in areas. Well records vary in quality, and there may be wells that have not been identified in records, but there are options for surveying unknown wells. Many of the deep saline formations being considered for CO 2 storage have few wells that penetrate the storage zone or confining layers. Research suggests that a variety of well construction and plugging approaches have been used over time in the region. The project concluded that wellbore integrity is an important issue for CO 2 storage applications in the Midwest United States. Realistic CO 2 storage projects may cover an area in the subsurface with several hundred legacy oil and gas wells. However, closer inspection may often establish that most of the wells do not penetrate the confining layers or storage zone. Therefore, addressing well integrity may be manageable. Field monitoring of SCP also indicated that tested wells provided zonal isolation of the reservoirs they were designed to isolate. Most of these wells appeared to exhibit gas pressure originating from intermediate zones. Based on these results, more flexibility in terms of cementing wells to surface, allowing well testing, and monitoring wells may aid operators in completing CO 2 storage project. Several useful products were developed under this project for examining wellbore integrity for CO 2 storage applications including, a database of over 4 million items on well integrity parameters in the study areas, a systematic CBL evaluation tool for rating cement in boreholes, SCP field testing procedures and analysis methodology, a process for summarizing well integrity at CO 2 storage fields, a statistical analysis of well integrity indicators, and an assessment of practical methods and costs necessary to repair/remediate typical wells in the region based on assessment of six test study areas. Project results may benefit both CO 2 storage and improved oil recovery applications. This study of wellbore integrity is a useful precursor to support development of geologic storage in the Midwest United States because it sheds more light on the actual well conditions (rather than the perceived condition) of historic oil and gas wells in the region.

42 ENGINEERING↗