Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “AFRICA”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the regional risks to food availability and access from land-based climate policies in an Integrated Assessment Model

Mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is necessary to reduce the overall negative climate change impacts on crop yields and agricultural production. However, certain mitigation measures may generate unintended consequences to food availability and food access due to both land use competition and economic burden of mitigation. Integrated assessment models (IAM) are generally used to evaluate these policies; however, currently these models may not capture the importance of income and food prices for hunger and overall economic wellbeing. Here, we implement a measure of food security that captures the nutritional and economic aspects as the total expenditures on staple foods divided by income and weighted by total caloric consumption in an IAM, the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM4.0). We then project consumer prices and our measure of food security along the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Sustained economic growth underpins increases in caloric consumption and lowering expenditures on staple foods. Strict conservation policies affect food accessibility in a larger number of developing countries, whereas the negative effects of pricing terrestrial emissions is more concentrated on the poor in Sub-Saharan Africa, by substantially replacing their cropland with forests and affecting the production of key staples.

Cui, Ryna↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainties in estimating global potential yields and their impacts for long-term modeling

Estimating realistic potential yields by crop type and region is challenging; such yields depend on both biophysical characteristics (e.g., soil characteristics, climate, etc.), and the crop management practices available in any site or region (e.g., mechanization, irrigation, crop cultivars). A broad body of literature has assessed potential yields for selected crops and regions, using several strategies. In this study we first analyze future potential yields of major crop types globally by two different estimation methods, one of which is based on historical observed yields (“Empirical”), while the other is based on biophysical conditions (“Simulated”). Potential yields by major crop and region are quite different between the two methods; in particular, Simulated potential yields are typically 200% higher than Empirical potential yields in tropical regions for major crops. Applying both of these potential yields in yield gap closure scenarios in a global agro-economic model, GCAM, the two estimates of future potential yields lead to very different outcomes for the agricultural sector globally. In the Simulated potential yield closure scenario, Africa, Asia, and South America see comparatively favorable outcomes for agricultural sustainability over time: low land use change emissions, low crop prices, and high levels of self-sufficiency. In contrast, the Empirical potential yield scenario is characterized by a heavy reliance on production and exports in temperate regions that currently practice industrial agriculture. At the global level, this scenario has comparatively high crop commodity prices, and more land allocated to crop production (and associated land use change emissions) than either the baseline or Simulated potential yield scenarios. This study highlights the importance of the choice of methods of estimating potential yields for agro-economic modeling.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fast response of global monsoon area and precipitation to regional carbonaceous aerosols

Monsoon exerts a significant social and economic impact on billions of people around the world. Changes in global monsoon (GM) rainfall under global warming have been well studied; however, the understanding of GM connection with regional aerosol emissions is limited. Using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), we attempt to quantify the response of global monsoon area and precipitation to the removal of carbonaceous aerosols over North America (AM), North Africa (AF), Europe (EU), and Asia (AS). Response to the emission removal, the global average aerosol optical depths (AOD) are reduced by 2.21%, 1.8%, 1.16%, and 3.8% respectively. Additionally, a southward shift in the GM domain is observed, responding to changes in magnitude and position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, when carbonaceous aerosols are removed over these regions in the Northern Hemisphere. The percentage departure in the area-averaged GM precipitation is found to be 4-fold in magnitude for the removal of emissions over EU when compared to that of AM and AF. A shrinkage in the GM area is also observed, which is maximum for EU (~-30%) compared to AM and AF (~-25%). The change in GM precipitation and area are found to be the least and opposite in nature for AS emissions. This study provides insight into the regional nature of carbonaceous aerosol effects on global precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Delineating the mechanism of anti-Lassa virus GPC-A neutralizing antibodies

Lassa virus (LASV) is the etiologic agent of Lassa Fever, a hemorrhagic disease that is endemic to West Africa. During LASV infection, LASV glycoprotein (GP) engages with multiple host receptors for cell entry. Neutralizing antibodies against GP are rare and principally target quaternary epitopes displayed only on the metastable, pre-fusion conformation of GP. Currently, the structural features of the neutralizing GPC-A antibody competition group are understudied. Structures of two GPC-A antibodies presented here demonstrate that they bind the side of the pre-fusion GP trimer, bridging the GP1 and GP2 subunits. Complementary biochemical analyses indicate that antibody 25.10C, which is broadly specific, neutralizes by inhibiting binding of the endosomal receptor LAMP1 and also by blocking membrane fusion. The other GPC-A antibody, 36.1F, which is lineage-specific, prevents LAMP1 association only. These data illuminate a site of vulnerability on LASV GP and will guide efforts to elicit broadly reactive therapeutics and vaccines.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Leveraging concentrating solar power plant dispatchability: A review of the impacts of global market structures and policy

Concentrating solar power (CSP) integrated with thermal energy storage delivers flexible and dispatchable power, which is an increasingly valuable quality as electricity systems integrate growing penetrations of variable renewable energy. Valuing and compensating CSP's dispatchability and flexibility requires electricity market structures and policies that appropriately remunerate generation during high-value portions of the day. In this paper, we review previous analyses of CSP economics and deployment, and we find that continued CSP growth will require valuation mechanisms that appropriately compensate for CSP's flexibility during both plant design and plant operation. We then review market structures that drive CSP operations and dispatch in jurisdictions where CSP is being developed, with perspectives from Spain, Chile, Australia, Morocco, South Africa, the United States, China, and the United Arab Emirates (Dubai). Despite broad agreement that CSP's dispatchability provides value to electricity grids, countries' policies for remunerating and leveraging such dispatchability varies widely. As deployment of CSP and variable renewable energy grows, it will be increasingly important to redesign current integration policies to signal the delivery of CSP's grid services more appropriately.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using deep transfer learning and satellite imagery to estimate urban air quality in data-poor regions

Urban air pollution is a critical public health challenge in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs). At the same time, LMICs tend to be data-poor, lacking adequate infrastructure to monitor air quality (AQ). As LMICs undergo rapid urbanization, the socio-economic burden of poor AQ will be immense. Here we present a globally scalable two-step deep learning (DL) based approach for AQ estimation in LMIC cities that mitigates the need for extensive AQ infrastructure on the ground. We train a DL model that can map satellite imagery to AQ in high-income countries (HICs) with sufficient ground data, and then adapt the model to learn meaningful AQ estimates in LMIC cities using transfer learning. The trained model can explain up to 54% of the variation in the AQ distribution of the target LMIC city without the need for target labels. The approach is demonstrated for Accra in Ghana, Africa, with AQ patterns learned and adapted from two HIC cities, specifically Los Angeles and New York.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Response of Indian summer monsoon rainfall to remote carbonaceous aerosols at short time scales: Teleconnections and feedbacks

The effect of atmospheric aerosols on Indian monsoon is one of the scientifically challenging and societally relevant research issues of the recent decades. Past studies have derived inferences mostly based on local emissions and their impacts thereupon. However, more recent studies have shown that the remote effects driven by aerosols elsewhere could also impact the monsoon system on different time scales. Our study using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) shows that regional carbonaceous aerosol emissions (from North America, Europe and North Africa and Asia) can significantly alter Indian summer monsoon rainfall. It is interesting to note that the effects of remote aerosols are larger and bear a resemblance to each other in comparison to local emissions. Here, our study reveals that the modulation of large-scale circulation induced by regional warming by carbonaceous aerosols leads to teleconnection patterns around the globe, thereby changing the precipitation depending on the phase of these disturbances. We also find that the effects of remote carbonaceous aerosols are strengthened by modulation/feedback through natural dust aerosols over the Arabian Sea with subsequent increase in rainfall over India. The results signify that the changes in the aerosol emissions in one region could lead to the change in precipitation over other regions through global teleconnection and associated feedbacks induced by regional atmospheric warming and/or cooling.

Carbonaceous aerosols↗
DOE OSTI2022

Boron isotopes in blue diamond record seawater-derived fluids in the lower mantle

Boron is a quintessential crustal element but its conspicuous presence in diamond – a mantle mineral – raises questions about potential subduction pathways for boron and other volatiles. It has been a long-standing goal to characterize the isotopic composition of boron in blue, boron-bearing (Type IIb) diamonds to reveal its origin. Mineral inclusions indicate that Type IIb diamonds crystallize at transition zone to lower mantle depths, meaning that if the boron is subducted it would trace a pathway of volatile elements into the deep mantle. Here, using off-line laser ablation sampling, we present the first boron isotope compositions, along with trace element contents and carbon isotope compositions, of a suite of blue diamonds mainly sourced from the Cullinan diamond mine in South Africa. The ten analyzed blue diamonds have a wide range in δ 11 B, between -9.2 ± 2‰ and -0.5 ± 2‰, compared to the more restricted range for mid-ocean ridge basalts (-7.1 ± 0.9‰). Carbon isotope values for the blue diamonds range between -20.6 and -1.8‰, with a mode at -17‰, significantly more negative than the main mantle mode at -5‰. Combined, the boron and carbon isotope compositions require fluid input from subducted oceanic lithosphere down into deep mantle source regions of blue diamonds. This finding highlights a deep subduction pathway for volatiles to stoke the source regions of deeply-derived magmas.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cost-optimal evaluation of centralized and distributed microgrid topologies considering voltage constraints

Optimal design of hybrid renewable mini-grids requires both economic and power quality considerations. Existing modeling approaches address these considerations via separate or loosely coupled models. Here, we extend REopt—a techno-economic optimization model developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory—to consider both within a single model. REopt formulates the design problem as a mixed-integer linear program that solves for a site's optimal technology mix, sizing, and operation to minimize life cycle cost. REopt has traditionally assumed a single node system. In the work presented here, we expand the REopt platform to consider multiple connected nodes with associated voltage constraints. In order to do this, we model power flow using a fixed-point linear approximation method. Additionally, we then use the model to explore design considerations of mini-grids in Sub-Saharan Africa. Specifically, we evaluate under what combinations of transmission line distance and capacity it is technically viable and economically preferable to build multiple isolated mini-grids versus an interconnected, centralized system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deposition of sulfate aerosols with positive Δ 33 S in the Neoarchean

Anomalous sulfur isotope compositions present in Archean rocks have been intensely scrutinized over the last 20 years because they record key aspects of Earth's atmospheric composition prior to the appearance of free molecular oxygen ca. 2.3 billion years ago. These isotopic compositions can be described as mass anomalous fractionations (MAF) and are produced in the atmosphere as UV light interacts with SO 2 molecules. Most interpretations suggest that atmospheric processes generate a reduced S-phase with a positive ( 33 S-enriched) MAF signature, as measured in pyrites, and an oxidized S-phase with a negative anomaly, as measured in bedded barite deposits. However, recent data for carbonate-associated sulfate (CAS) — a direct proxy for the isotopic composition of sulfur from seawater sulfate — in Neoarchean rocks showed no such negative values, but rather the opposite. To understand if the positive MAF anomalies we measured in Neoarchean CAS reflect secondary processes (diagenetic, metamorphic, handling) instead of original signals of Archean seawater sulfate, we collected additional sample suites with various degrees of preservation and metamorphic alteration across the Campbellrand-Malmani platform in South Africa. Results illustrate that within this comprehensive suite, less-altered samples all contain positive MAF values while secondary processes tend to either remove CAS from the sample and/or decrease the 33 S-enrichment. This positive MAF signal in sulfate is therefore reasonably interpreted as a primary depositional origin, and implies that the assumption that sulfate always carries a negative MAF anomaly throughout the Archean rock record needs to be reconsidered. Our CAS observations suggest that future experiments and calculations should also consider atmospheric and/or sulfur cycling processes that can produce oxidized sulfur with a positive MAF signature.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A window into atmospheric escape on early Mars provided by argon isotopes in a Martian meteorite

Novel analytical approaches to determining the trapped 38 Ar/ 36 Ar ratio of gases contained within Martian meteorites are presented and applied to the Martian regolith breccia Northwest Africa (NWA) 7034 and paired stone NWA 11220. The resulting data indicate that extensive mass-dependent fractionation of atmospheric Ar may have occurred within 150 million years of planetary formation, ostensibly as a result of diffusion-limited hydrodynamic escape. The inferred fractional loss of Ar and lighter atmospheric constituents exceeds 50%. In conclusion, these data suggest that volatiles derived from planetary outgassing and/or impactors may dominate the present abundance of atmospheric Ar.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress?

Historical increases in agricultural production were achieved predominantly by large increases in agricultural productivity. Intensification of crop and livestock production also plays a key role in future projections of agricultural land use. Here, we assess and discuss projections of crop yields by global agricultural land-use and integrated assessment models. To evaluate these crop yield projections, we compare them to empirical data on attainable yields by employing a linear and plateauing continuation of observed attainable yield trends. While keeping in mind the uncertainties of attainable yields projections and future climate change impacts, we find that, on average for all cereals on the global level, global projected yields by 2050 remain below the attainable yields. Additionally, this is also true for future pathways with high technological progress and mitigation efforts, indicating that projected yield increases are not overly optimistic, even under systemic transformations. Furthermore, on a regional scale, we find that for developing regions, specifically for sub-Saharan Africa, projected yields stay well below attainable yields, indicating that the large yield gaps which could be closed through improved crop management, may also persist in the future. In OECD countries, in contrast, current yields are already close to attainable yields, and the projections approach or, for some models, even exceed attainable yields by 2050. This observation parallels research suggesting that future progress in attainable yields in developed regions will mainly have to be achieved through new crop varieties or genetic improvements. The models included in this study vary widely in their implementation of yield progress, which are often split into endogenous (crop management) improvements and exogenous (technological) trends. More detail and transparency are needed in these important elements of global yields and land use projections, and this paper discusses possibilities of better aligning agronomic understanding of yield gaps and yield potentials with modelling approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Large-scale paleo water-table rise in a deep desert aquifer recorded by dissolved noble gases

Illuminating past hydrological and climatological conditions in arid regions may provide insights into future trends in groundwater availability. The main objective of this study is to explore paleorecharge processes in the deep regional Nubian Sandstone Aquifer (NSA), which stretches below the hyperarid deserts of the Sinai Peninsula (Egypt) and the Negev (Israel), using dissolved noble gas data. Extremely high amounts of dissolved excess air (Ne concentrations up to 4 × solubility equilibrium) were observed in the ancient ( 81 Kr-depleted) groundwater that was recharged during past pluvial epochs in the basin. Here, the observed unique excess air signal and the clear spatiotemporal structure of the noble gas compositions in the aquifer are hypothesized to reflect two major characteristics of the groundwater system: (a) large-scale, long-term rises in the water table that facilitate the entrapment and dissolution of air bubbles under increased hydrostatic pressure, and (b) the geological settings in the southern recharge area in Sinai, including an almost horizontal position of the layers and intercalation of low-permeability rock formations within the aquifer, which inefficiently reject air bubbles from groundwater, thereby allowing for substantial entrapment of bubbles that dissolve as the water table rises. Enhanced dissolution of entrapped air was also observed in other paleo-groundwater-containing regional sandstone aquifers across North Africa, which, together with the recent findings from the NSA, suggest that largescale water table fluctuations have likely extensively occurred during past pluvial periods over these (and possibly other) arid regions. A preliminary assessment of noble gas recharge temperatures (NGTs) indicates an apparent decoupling of surface and water table temperatures in the case of deep aquifers with a thick (hundreds of m) unsaturated zone. This observed decoupling calls for a re-evaluation of previously obtained NGT records and a need for future work to consider the modification of NGTs due to soil air fractionation and geothermal heating of the underlying deep unsaturated zones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

HIV drug resistance during antiretroviral therapy scale-up in Uganda, 2012–19: a population-based, longitudinal study

Background With scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, increasing pretreatment HIV drug resistance has been reported; however, the broader effect of ART expansion on population-level resistance patterns remains insufficiently quantified. We aimed to estimate the longitudinal prevalence of drug resistance and resistance-conferring mutations. Methods This study used data collected as part of the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS), an open population-based census and cohort study conducted in southern Uganda. At each survey round, residents aged 15–49 years are invited to participate and receive a structured questionnaire that obtains sociodemographic, behavioural, and health information, including self-reported past and current ART use. Voluntary HIV testing is conducted using a rapid test algorithm and a venous blood sample. People with HIV provide samples for viral load quantification and deep sequencing. We analysed RCCS survey, HIV viral load, and deep sequencing (which was used to predict resistance) data from five survey rounds. The key outcomes were the population prevalence of viraemic people with HIV with non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI), nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI), protease inhibitor, or multiclass resistance among all participants (regardless of HIV serostatus) in the 2015 and 2017 surveys. Prevalence of class-specific resistance and resistance-conferring substitutions were estimated using robust log-Poisson regression. Findings Between Aug 10, 2011, and Nov 4, 2020, there were 43 361 participants in the RCCS and 7923 (18·27%) people with HIV. Over five survey rounds, 93 622 participant visits occurred, among which 17 460 (18·65%) were from people with HIV. Over the analysis period, the median age of study participants remained similar (28 years [22–35] in 2012 and 29 years [21–38] in 2019). Sufficient data were available to reliably genotype 4072 (90·03%) of 4523 participant visits from 3407 people with HIV for at least one drug. Overall population prevalence of resistance contributed by viraemic pretreatment people with HIV decreased between 2012 and 2017 from 0·56% (95% CI 0·42–0·75) to 0·25% (0·18–0·33) for NNRTI and from 0·24% (0·15–0·37) to 0·05% (0·02–0·10) for NRTI (prevalence ratio 0·44 [0·29–0·68] for NNRTI and 0·21 [0·09–0·47] for NRTI). Between 2012 and 2017, NNRTI resistance among viraemic pretreatment people with HIV increased from 4·86% (3·69–6·42) to 9·61% (7·27–12·7; prevalence ratio 1·98 [1·34–2·91]). The prevalence of NNRTI and NRTI resistance was substantially higher among viraemic treatment-experienced people with HIV (51·49% [46·24–57·34] for NNRTI and 36·46% [30·06–44·22] for NRTI in 2017) than among pretreatment people with HIV. NNRTI and NRTI resistance was predominantly attributable to rtK103N and rtM184V. inT97A was observed at a similar prevalence among viraemic treatment-experienced (9·96% [6·41–15·48]) and viraemic pretreatment (10·56% [8·01–13·93]) people with HIV; no major dolutegravir resistance mutations were observed. Interpretation Despite rising NNRTI resistance among pretreatment people with HIV, overall population prevalence of pretreatment HIV drug-resistant viraemia decreased due to increasing ART uptake and viral suppression. This finding underscores the crucial role of achieving and maintaining high ART coverage in reducing transmission of drug-resistant HIV. The high prevalence of mutations conferring resistance to components of first-line ART regimens among viraemic people with HIV is potentially concerning. Funding National Institutes of Health, Johns Hopkins University Center for AIDS Research, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global spatially explicit carbon emissions from land-use change over the past six decades (1961–2020)

Land-use change (LUC) is a major source of global anthropogenic carbon emissions that contribute to climate change. However, current estimates of LUC-induced emissions vary widely with differences in data and models, making it challenging to identify and manage emissions hotspots by location and LUC activity. Here, we estimated spatially explicit carbon fluxes associated with global major gross land-use transitions based on a new bookkeeping model (i.e., LUCE). Between 1961 and 2020, LUC induced 215 and 142 Pg C of global carbon emissions and removals, respectively, resulting in average net emissions (E LUC ) of 1.21 Pg C year −1 . Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa dominated global E LUC with 69% of 60-year cumulative emissions, or about 86% between 2001 and 2020. Forest-related LUC activities (e.g., deforestation, reforestation) contributed largely to both regional and global carbon fluxes. Our findings shed new light on identifying LUC-induced emissions hotspots and managing land for climate mitigation and conservation.

bookkeeping model↗
DOE OSTI2025

New chronological constraints on the history of the Kalahari Group from the Upper Ugab Valley, Namibia

The sedimentary fill of the Kalahari Basin, which extends across several countries in southern and central Africa, records landscape evolution processes and holds archeological evidence of early hominid occupation. Recent studies have demonstrated that the majority of the Kalahari Group sediments were deposited between the Pliocene and the recent present. However, due to limited access to natural outcrops in the flat Kalahari topography, the chronology of the sequence, mostly its earlier part, is not well constrained.

Cosmogenic nuclides burial dating↗
DOE OSTI2023

Directionally supervised cellular automaton for the initial peopling of Sahul

Reconstructing the patterns of Homo sapiens expansion out of Africa and across the globe has been advanced using demographic and travel-cost models. However, modelled routes are ipso facto influenced by migration rates, and vice versa. We combined movement ‘superhighways’ with a demographic cellular automaton to predict one of the world's earliest peopling events — Sahul between 75000 and 50000 years ago. Novel outcomes from the superhighways-weighted model include (i) an approximate doubling of the predicted time to continental saturation (~10,000 years) compared to that based on the directionally unsupervised model (~5000 years), suggesting that rates of migration need to account for topographical constraints in addition to rate of saturation; (ii) a previously undetected movement corridor south through the centre of Sahul early in the expansion wave based on the scenarios assuming two dominant entry points into Sahul; and (iii) a better fit to the spatially de-biased, Signor-Lipps-corrected layer of initial arrival inferred from dated archaeological material. Our combined model infrastructure provides a data-driven means to examine how people initially moved through, settled, and abandoned different regions of the globe.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗