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DOE OSTI2023

Rapid saturation of cloud water adjustments to shipping emissions

Abstract. Human aerosol emissions change cloud properties by providing additional cloud condensation nuclei. This increases cloud droplet numbers, which in turn affects other cloud properties like liquid-water content and ultimately cloud albedo. These adjustments are poorly constrained, making aerosol effects the most uncertain part of anthropogenic climate forcing. Here we show that cloud droplet number and water content react differently to changing emission amounts in shipping exhausts. We use information about ship positions and modeled emission amounts together with reanalysis winds and satellite retrievals of cloud properties. The analysis reveals that cloud droplet numbers respond linearly to emission amount over a large range (1–10 kg h−1) before the response saturates. Liquid water increases in raining clouds, and the anomalies are constant over the emission ranges observed. There is evidence that this independence of emissions is due to compensating effects under drier and more humid conditions, consistent with suppression of rain by enhanced aerosol. This has implications for our understanding of cloud processes and may improve the way clouds are represented in climate models, in particular by changing parameterizations of liquid-water responses to aerosol.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1994

Clouds, hazes, and the stratospheric methane abundance in Neptune

Analysis of high-spatial-resolution (approximately 0.8 arcsec) methane band and continuum imagery of Neptune's relatively homogeneous Equatorial Region yields significant constraints on (1) the stratospheric gaseous methane mixing ratio (f(sub CH4, S)), (2) the column abundances and optical properties of stratospheric and tropospheric hydrocarbon hazes, and (3) the wavelength-dependent single-scattering albedo of the 3-bar opaque cloud. From the center-to-limb behavior of the 7270-A and 8900-A CH4 bands, the stratospheric methane mixing ratios is limited to f(sub CH4, S) less than 1.7 x 10(exp -3), with a nominal value of f(sub CH4, S) = 3.5 x 10(exp -4), one to two orders of magnitude less than pre-Voyager estimates, but in agreement with a number of recent ultraviolet and thermal infrared measurements, and largely in agreement with the tropopause mixing ratio implied by Voyager temperature measurements. Upper limits to the stratospheric haze mass column abundance and 6190-A and 8900-A haze opacities are 0.61 micrograms/sq cm and 0.075 and 0.042, respectively, with nominal values of 0.20 micrograms/sq cm and 0.025 and 0.014 for the 0.2 micrometers radius particles preferred by the recent Voyager PPS analysis of Pryor et al. (1992). The tropospheric CH4 haze opacities are comparable to that found in the stratosphere, i.e., upper limits of 0.104 and 0.065 at 6190 A and 8900 A, respectively, with nominal values of 0.085 and 0.058. This indicates a column abundance less than 11.0 micrograms/sq cm, corresponding to the methane gas content within a well-mixed 3% methane tropospheric layer only 0.1 cm thick near the 1.5-bar CH4 condensation level. Conservative scattering is ruled out for the opaque cloud near 3 bars marking the bottom of the visible atmosphere. Specifically, we find cloud single-scattering albedos of 0.915 +/- 0.006 at 6340 A, 0.775 +/- 0.012 at 7490 A, and 0.803 +/- 0.010 at 8260 A. Global models utilizing a complete global spectrum confirm the red-absorbing character of the 3-bar cloud. The global-mean model has approximately 7.7 times greater stratospheric aerosol content than the Equatorial Region. An analysis of stratospheric haze precipitation rates indicates a steady-state haze production rate of 0.185-1.5 x 10(exp -14) g/sq cm/s, in agreement with recent theoretical photochemical estimates. Finally, reanalysis of the Voyager PPS 7500-A phase angle data utilizing the f(sub CH4, S) value derived here confirms the Pryor et al. result of a tropospheric CH4 haze opacity of a few tenths in the 22-30 degs S latitude region, several times that of the Equatorial Region or of the globe. The factor-of-10 reduction in f(sub CH4, S) below that assumed by Pryor et al. implies decreased gas absorption and consequently a decrease in the forward-scattering component of tropospheric aerosols.

Baines, Kevin H.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Simulations of 7 Be and 10 Be with the GEOS-Chem global model v14.0.2 using state-of-the-art production rates

The cosmogenic radionuclides 7 Be and 10 Be are useful aerosol tracers for atmospheric transport studies. Combining 7 Be and 10 Be measurements with an atmospheric transport model can not only improve our understanding of the radionuclide transport and deposition processes but also provide an evaluation of the transport process in the model. To simulate these aerosol tracers, it is critical to evaluate the influence of radionuclides production uncertainties on simulations. Here we use the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model driven by the MERRA-2 reanalysis to simulate 7 Be and 10 Be with different production scenarios: the default production rate in GEOS-Chem based on an empirical approach (Lal and Peters, 1967; denoted as LP67), and two production rates from the CRAC:Be (Cosmic Ray Atmospheric Cascade: Beryllium; Poluianov et al., 2016) model considering only geomagnetic cut-off rigidities for a geocentric axial dipole (denoted as P16) or realistic spatial geomagnetic cut-off rigidity variations due to non-dipole moments of the geomagnetic field (denoted as P16spa). The model results are comprehensively evaluated with a large number of measurements including surface air concentrations and deposition fluxes. The model with the P16spa production can reproduce the absolute values and temporal variability of 7 Be and 10 Be surface concentrations and deposition fluxes on annual and sub-annual scales, as well as the vertical profiles of air concentrations. Simulations with the LP67 production tend to overestimate the absolute values of 7 Be and 10 Be concentrations. The P16 simulations suggest less than 10% differences compared to P16spa but tend to produce a significant positive bias (>20%) in the 7 Be deposition fluxes over East Asia. We find that the deposition fluxes are more sensitive to the production in the troposphere and downward transport from the stratosphere. Independent of the production models, surface air concentrations and deposition fluxes from all simulations show similar seasonal variations, suggesting a dominant meteorological influence. The model can also simulate reasonably the stratosphere-troposphere exchange process of 7 Be and 10 Be by producing stratospheric contribution and 10 Be/ 7 Be ratio values that agree with measurements. Finally, we illustrate the importance of including the time-varying solar modulation in the production calculation, which can significantly improve the agreement between model results and measurements, especially at mid- and high- latitudes. Reduced uncertainties in the production rates, as demonstrated in this study, improve the utility of 7 Be and 10 Be as aerosol tracers for evaluating and testing transport and scavenging processes in global models.

Minjie Zheng↗

NASA NTRS2007

Cooling of the North Atlantic by Saharan Dust

Using aerosol optical depth, sea surface temperature, top-of-the-atmosphere solar radiation flux, and oceanic mixed-layer depth from diverse data sources that include NASA satellites, NCEP reanalysis, in situ observations, as well as long-term dust records from Barbados, we examine the possible relationships between Saharan dust and Atlantic sea surface temperature. Results show that the estimated anomalous cooling pattern of the Atlantic during June 2006 relative to June 2005 due to attenuation of surface solar radiation by Saharan dust remarkably resemble observations, accounting for approximately 30-40% of the observed change in sea surface temperature. Historical data analysis show that there is a robust negative correlation between atmospheric dust loading and Atlantic SST consistent with the notion that increased (decreased) Saharan dust is associated with cooling (warming) of the Atlantic during the early hurricane season (July- August-September).

Lau, K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Improved Representation of the Global Dust Cycle Using Observational Constraints on Dust Properties and Abundance

Even though desert dust is the most abundant aerosol by mass in Earth’s atmosphere, atmospheric models 25 struggle to accurately represent its spatial and temporal distribution. These model errors are partially caused byfundamental difficulties in simulating dust emission in coarse-resolution models and in accurately representing dust microphysical properties. Here we mitigate these problems by developing a new methodology that yields an improved representation of the global dust cycle. We present an analytical framework that uses inverse modeling to integrate an ensemble of global model simulations with observational constraints on the dust size distribution, 30 extinction efficiency, and regional dust aerosol optical depth. We then compare the inverse model results against independent measurements of dust surface concentration and deposition flux and find that errors are reduced by approximately a factor of two relative to current model simulations of the Northern Hemisphere dust cycle. The inverse model results show smaller improvements in the less dusty Southern Hemisphere, most likely because both the model simulations and the observational constraints used in the inverse model are less accurate. On a global 35 basis, we find that the emission flux of dust with geometric diameter up to 20 μm (PM20) is approximately 5,000 Tg/year, which is greater than most models account for. This larger PM20 dust flux is needed to match observational constraints showing a large atmospheric loading of coarse dust. We obtain gridded data sets of dust emission, vertically integrated loading, dust aerosol optical depth, (surface) concentration, and wet and dry deposition fluxes that are resolved by season and particle size. As our results indicate that this data set is more accurate than current 40 model simulations and the MERRA-2 dust reanalysis product, it can be used to improve quantifications of dust impacts on the Earth system.

aerosols, dust↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of COVID-Global Shutdown on Earth's Radiation Budget

Climate is fueled by how much of the sun’s energy is absorbed by Earth. Changes in aerosol emissions have a direct impact how much solar energy is absorbed under clear-sky conditions, which occurs roughly one-third of the time globally. Aerosol emission changes can also indirectly influence clouds and further alter solar energy absorption. In this presentation, we examine the impact of the COVID-19 global shutdown on Earth’s radiation budget at global and regional scales and compare it with other changes that have had an influence on Earth's radiation budget during the past 20 years—including policy-related emission controls, wildfire events and changes in sea-ice extent in polar regions. We use a novel analysis technique together with data from NASA instruments on the Terra, Aqua and Aura satellites and reanalysis data from MERRA-2. We also compare results with state-of-the-art general circulation models that have been nudged to reanalysis data (winds, air temperature and surface 25 pressure) at all levels. Our preliminary results show that the largest COVID-19 impact occurs regionally over the East Asian Marginal Seas, just off the coast of China. We find a 30% reduction in aerosol optical depth according to the MODIS instrument, and an 8% reduction in reflected solar radiation according to the CERES radiation budget instrument. The climate model simulations show remarkable consistency with the observations and furthermore show no evidence of an indirect effect on cloud properties.

Norman G. Loeb↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cloud Properties and Boundary Layer Stability Above Southern Ocean Sea Ice and Coastal Antarctica

Significant variability in climate predictions originates from the simulated cloud cover over the Southern Ocean. Historically, Southern Ocean cloud and aerosol properties have been less studied than their northern hemisphere counterparts, and cloud-sea-ice interactions over the Southern Ocean also remain largely unexamined. We used data from combined radar, lidar, radiometer, radiosonde, and ERA5 reanalysis profiles to investigate cloud property relationships to cloud temperature, sea-ice concentration, and boundary layer stability. Our findings show correlations between both cloud macrophysical properties and radiative effects and sea-ice concentration, and that the marine atmospheric boundary layer is more stable over higher sea-ice concentrations. Mixed-phase cloud frequency of occurrence was highest over the sea-ice zone at 15%, three times higher than over cold water south of the Antarctic Polar Front. For temperatures greater than –15°C, low-level, single-layer clouds were more likely to precipitate ice if they were coupled to cold-water or sea-ice surfaces than if they were decoupled from these surfaces, with the highest percentage of clouds precipitating ice observed over sea ice. These findings suggest a surface source of ice-nucleating particles at high southern latitudes that increases cloud glaciation probability. We discuss the implications of our results for future studies into the relationship between cloud properties, aerosols, sea ice, and boundary layer stability at high latitudes over the Southern Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2012

Derivation of a New Smoke Emissions Inventory using Remote Sensing, and Its Implications for Near Real-Time Air Quality Applications

A new emissions inventory of particulate matter (PM) is being derived mainly from remote sensing data using fire radiative power (FRP) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, as well as wind data from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis dataset, which spans the satellite era. This product is generated using a coefficient of emission, C(sub e), that has been produced on a 1x1 degree global grid such that, when it is multiplied with satellite measurements of FRP or its time-integrated equivalent fire radiative energy (FRE) retrieved over a given area and time period, the corresponding PM emissions are estimated. This methodology of using C(sub e) to derive PM emissions is relatively new and advantageous for near real-time air quality applications compared to current methods based on post-fire burned area that may not provide emissions in a timely manner. Furthermore, by using FRP to characterize a fire s output, it will represent better accuracy than the use of raw fire pixel counts, since fires in individual pixels can differ in size and strength by orders of magnitude, resulting in similar differences in emission rates. Here we will show examples of this effect and how this new emission inventory can properly account for the differing emission rates from fires of varying strengths. We also describe the characteristics of the new emissions inventory, and propose the process chain of incorporating it into models for air quality applications.

Ellison, Luke↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of Marine Boundary Layer Clouds Over the Northeast Pacific During the CSET Campaign in E3SM Version 2

It is still challenging to reproduce marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds well in large-scale models despite their importance to the Earth's radiation budget and hydrological cycle. This study evaluates representation of the MBL and clouds in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2. This study compares the E3SM simulation results with remote sensing and reanalysis data during the Cloud System Evolution in the Trades (CSET) field campaign to better understand the stratocumulus-to-cumulus cloud transition (SCT) over the northeast Pacific. E3SM results are extracted along the CSET Lagrangian trajectories. The comparison shows that the E3SM simulation applying horizontal wind nudging performs well in reproducing thermodynamic variables of the MBL and evolution trends of cloud variables along the trajectories. However, substantial overestimations of aerosol and cloud drop number (N d ) are observed, which is explained as an issue with version 2 of the model. Cloud fraction (CF) does decrease from the Californian coast to Hawaii in the E3SM simulation, but most CF values indicate either an overcast or almost clear sky, which differs from satellite and reanalysis data. The effect of N d overestimation on CF evolution is assessed via prescribed-N d simulations. Those simulations with N d modifications show negligible CF changes. A comparison of estimated inversion strength (EIS) also shows that the simulated EIS values are similar to those of reanalysis data. Our study suggests that cloud macrophysics and boundary layer processes are more important in improving the simulation to capture the SCT than refining the model's thermodynamics or cloud microphysics.

Choi, Kyoung Ock [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA↗

NASA NTRS2018

Results from ORACLES-2016: Observed Biomass Burning Aerosol Properties over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean and the Relationship to Meteorology

The Southeast Atlantic Ocean (SEA), with seasonal biomass burning (BB) smoke plumes overlying persistent stratocumulus cloud deck, offers an excellent natural laboratory to make the observations necessary to understand the complexities of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions. The first field deployment of the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) campaign was conducted in September of 2016 out of Walvis Bay, Namibia. During this deployment, two NASA aircraft (a P-3 and an ER-2) were flown with a suite of aerosol, cloud, radiation, and meteorological instruments for remote-sensing and in-situ observations. In this talk, I will first present results from an intercomparison of the different instrument retrievals for the 2016 flights, with a specific focus on the measures of aerosol absorption. In ORACLES, data collected by eight different instrument teams are used to derive aerosol properties over this region by independent methods. We focus on the single scattering albedo (SSA), a measure of the relative absorption versus total extinction by aerosols, as the main comparable property between all methods. I will also discuss comparisons of the retrieved aerosol absorption parameters, as well as the agreement and the variability seen between different instruments, and spatially over the study region. Another important factor in understanding aerosol radiative effects is how the magnitude of these effects may be modified by meteorological conditions. I will next describe observations collected from the P-3 aircraft (from near-surface up to 6-7 kilometers) which show a strong correlation between the in-situ pollution indicators (carbon monoxide and aerosol properties) and atmospheric water vapor content, seen at all altitudes above the boundary layer. This condition is seen to persist over all flights, with minimal detrainment during advection from the continental source. In exploring the potential causal factors behind and implications of this relationship, we see indications that convective dynamics over the continent likely contribute to this elevated signal, but neither meteorological reanalysis nor trajectory analysis fully capture the magnitude and vertical structure of the observed elevated signal. Finally, I will discuss the radiative implications of the observed correlations, a topic of ongoing analysis in ORACLES: understanding the mechanisms which cause water vapor to covary with plume strength is important to quantifying the radiative effects (direct and semi-direct) of biomass burning aerosol in the region.

Pistone, Kristina↗

NASA NTRS2013

Diagnosing Warm Frontal Cloud Formation in a GCM: A Novel Approach Using Conditional Subsetting

This study analyzes characteristics of clouds and vertical motion across extratropical cyclone warm fronts in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model. The validity of the modeled clouds is assessed using a combination of satellite observations from CloudSat, Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), and the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis. The analysis focuses on developing cyclones, to test the model's ability to generate their initial structure. To begin, the extratropical cyclones and their warm fronts are objectively identified and cyclone-local fields are mapped into a vertical transect centered on the surface warm front. To further isolate specific physics, the cyclones are separated using conditional subsetting based on additional cyclone-local variables, and the differences between the subset means are analyzed. Conditional subsets are created based on 1) the transect clouds and 2) vertical motion; 3) the strength of the temperature gradient along the warm front, as well as the storm-local 4) wind speed and 5) precipitable water (PW). The analysis shows that the model does not generate enough frontal cloud, especially at low altitude. The subsetting results reveal that, compared to the observations, the model exhibits a decoupling between cloud formation at high and low altitudes across warm fronts and a weak sensitivity to moisture. These issues are caused in part by the parameterized convection and assumptions in the stratiform cloud scheme that are valid in the subtropics. On the other hand, the model generates proper covariability of low-altitude vertical motion and cloud at the warm front and a joint dependence of cloudiness on wind and PW.

cyclones↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Solar Radiation Using NA-CORDEX and the NSRDB

The current state-of-art for estimating long-term PV production uses long-term estimates of solar radiation variables, such as global horizontal irradiance (GHI), from previous years. This data is used in models such as the System Advisor Model (SAM) or PYSyst to predict annual production for a PV plant. This information is then used to estimate the production over the next 20 years (a typical plant lifetime) under the assumption that the variability over the current period is representative of the future. As the PV industry moves to extend plant lifetimes to 50 years the current assumptions of representativeness of weather may not be appropriate. This is especially true as our climate changes rapidly. To assess long-term PV production, future projections for solar radiation based on projected carbon emissions are readily available in regional and global climate models. However, climate model projections contain inherent biases that may need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. Several studies have analyzed projections of solar radiation for future years, however the accuracy of the model output compared to current and historic data has not been widely studied. Chen (2021) showed that available climate models do not accurately represent solar radiation in some cases, over-projecting GHI at the surface while under-projecting its obstructions, such as clouds and aerosols. This works aims to (1) increase understanding of the accuracy of solar radiation currently available in global and regional climate models and (2) implement bias correction through linear models based on reanalysis data compared to observed solar radiation. The latter aim will be conducted using available observed solar radiation data and modeled data from several regional climate models (RCMs). The bias correction method will be applied to projections of solar radiation resulting in a more accurate representation of the future of solar production.

climate data↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simultaneous lidar profiling of water vapor, aerosol, and wind over the eastern Pacific and implications for observational challenges on clouds, circulation, and climate sensitivity

Moist convective processes and related circulations are key components of the Earth’s climate system. Improving our understanding of moisture and cloud processes over oceans is especially challenging due to observational limitations, but also important due to the large radiative effects of cloud over ocean as well as the ties to local and global-scale circulations. A unique dataset for addressing these topics was collected over 5 flights with the NASA HALO (water vapor DIAL and aerosol HSRL) and DAWN (Doppler wind) lidar systems onboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft during the spring 2019 ADM-Aeolus Cal/Val test flight campaign. High-resolution water vapor, aerosol/cloud, and wind profiles were simultaneously collected and complimented with in situ high-resolution dropsonde measurements of temperature, relative humidity, and wind profiles. Airborne lidar measurements of these key variables captured both large-scale spatial variability across different cloud and atmospheric conditions as well as finer features, providing insight into processes from large-scale circulations down to aerosol/cloud interactions. The 5 flights spanned the northeast Pacific and southwest U.S. from 6 N to 52 N and 112 W to 157 W and captured several features of interest including moist layers from the ascending region of the Hadley circulation, very dry layers above midlatitude marine stratocumulus and cloud-free planetary boundary layers, and cloud top height and spatial variability. High covariance of aerosol and water vapor in the free troposphere was also observed for the first time. Preliminary analysis of these data sets will be presented as they apply to clouds and circulations, supplemented by model reanalysis to inform how regional water vapor structure and large-scale motion may contribute to observed shallow cloud formations and other meteorological processes that underpin our current understanding of how these state variables couple to impact the Earth’s weather and climate systems. The potential of complementary measurements in future field campaigns will also be mentioned.

Brian James Carroll↗

NASA NTRS2017

Status and Plans for Reanalysis at NASA/GMAO

Reanalysis plays a critical role in GMAOs goal to enhance NASA's program of Earth observations, providing vital data sets for climate research and the development of future missions. As the breadth of NASAs observations expands to include multiple components of the Earth system, so does the need to assimilate observations from currently uncoupled components of the system in a more physically consistent manner. GMAOs most recent reanalysis of the satellite era, MERRA-2, has completed the period 1980-present, and is now running as a continuing global climate analysis with two- to three-week latency. MERRA-2 assimilates meteorological and aerosol observations as a weakly coupled assimilation system as a first step toward GMAOs longer term goal of developing an integrated Earth system analysis (IESA) capability that will couple assimilation systems for the atmosphere, ocean, land and chemistry. The GMAO strategy is to progress incrementally toward an IESA through an evolving combination of coupled systems and offline component reanalyses driven by, for example, MERRA-2 atmospheric forcing. Most recently, the GMAO has implemented a weakly coupled assimilation scheme for analyzing ocean skin temperature within the existing atmospheric analysis. The scheme uses background fields from a near-surface ocean diurnal layer model to assimilate surface-sensitive radiances plus in-situ observations along with all other observations in the atmospheric assimilation system. In addition, MERRA-2-driven simulations of the ocean (plus sea ice) and atmospheric chemistry (for the EOS period) are currently underway, as is the development of a coupled atmosphere-ocean assimilation system. This talk will describe the status of these ongoing efforts and the planned steps toward an IESA capability for climate research.

MERRA-2↗

DOE OSTI2023

Implementing and Improving CBMZ-MAM3 Chemistry and Aerosol Modules in the Regional Climate Model WRF-CAM5: An Evaluation over the Western US and Eastern North Pacific

The representation of aerosols in climate-chemistry models is important for air quality and climate change research, but it can require significant computational resources. The objective of this study was to improve the representation of aerosols in climate–chemistry models, specifically in the carbon bond mechanism, version Z (CBMZ), and modal aerosol modules with three lognormal modes (MAM3) in the WRF-CAM5 model. The study aimed to enhance the model’s chemistry capabilities by incorporating biomass burning emissions, establishing a conversion mechanism between volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and secondary organic carbons (SOCs), and evaluating its performance against observational benchmarks. The results of the study demonstrated the effectiveness of the enhanced chemistry capabilities in the WRF-CAM5 model. Six simulations were conducted over the western U.S. and northeastern Pacific region, comparing the model’s performance with observational benchmarks such as reanalysis, ground-based, and satellite data. The findings revealed a significant reduction in root-mean-square errors (RMSE) for surface concentrations of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). Specifically, the model exhibited a 31% reduction in RMSE for BC concentrations and a 58% reduction in RMSE for OC concentrations. These outcomes underscored the importance of accurate aerosol representation in climate-chemistry models and emphasized the potential for improving simulation accuracy and reducing errors through the incorporation of enhanced chemistry modules in such models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Changes in Aerosols, Meteorology, and Radiation in the Southeastern U.S. Warming Hole Region during 2000 to 2019

Abstract Surface air temperatures in the southeastern United States that did not change from the climatological mean from 1900 to 2000 have increased since the year 2000. Analyzed herein are factors modulating the surface air temperatures in the region for a 20-yr period (2000–19) using space- and surface-based observations, and output from a reanalysis model. The 20-yr period is segregated into two decades, 2000–09 and 2010–19, corresponding to different tropospheric chemical regimes. Changes in seasonal and decadal averages are examined. The later decade experienced higher average surface air temperatures with significant warming during summer and fall seasons. Decadal and seasonal averages of cloud properties, column water vapor, rain rates, and top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation did not exhibit statistically significant differences between the two decades. The region experienced strong warm and moist advection during the winter months and very weak advection during the summer months. The later decade exhibited higher low-level moisture advection during the winter months than the earlier decade with insignificant changes in the temperature advection between the two decades. The later decade had significantly lower aerosol dry and liquid water mass during all seasons, along with lower aerosol optical depth, higher single scattering albedo, and lower top-of-the-atmosphere outgoing shortwave radiation during cloud-free conditions in the summer season. Collectively, these results suggest that changes in the aerosol direct radiative forcing are responsible for warming during summer months that experience weak advection and highlight seasonal differences in the temperature controlling mechanisms in the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

ARM Trajectories Data Set Value-Added Product Report

The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s ARM Trajectories Data Set (ARMTRAJ) Value-Added Product (VAP) provides trajectory data sets initialized at ARM deployment coordinates and configured using ARM data sets. The four trajectory data sets support aerosol, cloud, and planetary boundary-layer research. Trajectory calculations use the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model informed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) data set at its highest spatial resolution (~31 km). HYSPLIT also runs at multiple initial starting locations surrounding ARM deployments (in latitude/longitude and/or vertical coordinates), facilitating an ensemble for each sample in the data sets. The ensemble mean and variability reported in ARMTRAJ improve the fidelity and provide uncertainty estimates of trajectory coordinates, thermodynamic properties, and other output fields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

Improved representation of the global dust cycle using observational constraints on dust properties and abundance

Even though desert dust is the most abundant aerosol by mass in Earth's atmosphere, atmospheric models struggle to accurately represent its spatial and temporal distribution. These model errors are partially caused by fundamental difficulties in simulating dust emission in coarse-resolution models and in accurately representing dust microphysical properties. Here we mitigate these problems by developing a new methodology that yields an improved representation of the global dust cycle. We present an analytical framework that uses inverse modeling to integrate an ensemble of global model simulations with observational constraints on the dust size distribution, extinction efficiency, and regional dust aerosol optical depth. We then compare the inverse model results against independent measurements of dust surface concentration and deposition flux and find that errors are reduced by approximately a factor of 2 relative to current model simulations of the Northern Hemisphere dust cycle. The inverse model results show smaller improvements in the less dusty Southern Hemisphere, most likely because both the model simulations and the observational constraints used in the inverse model are less accurate. On a global basis, we find that the emission flux of dust with a geometric diameter up to 20 µm (PM20) is approximately 5000 Tg yr−1, which is greater than most models account for. This larger PM20 dust flux is needed to match observational constraints showing a large atmospheric loading of coarse dust. We obtain gridded datasets of dust emission, vertically integrated loading, dust aerosol optical depth, (surface) concentration, and wet and dry deposition fluxes that are resolved by season and particle size. As our results indicate that this dataset is more accurate than current model simulations and the MERRA-2 dust reanalysis product, it can be used to improve quantifications of dust impacts on the Earth system.

Dust cycle↗