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At least 163 records · Page 9

Self-Supported Branched Poly(ethylenimine) Monoliths from Inverse Template 3D Printing for Direct Air Capture

3D-printed inverse templates are combined with ice templating to develop self-supported branched poly(ethylenimine) monoliths with regular channels of varying channel density and ordered macropores. A maximum uptake of 0.96 mmol of CO 2 /g of monolith from ambient air containing 45.5% RH is achieved from dynamic breakthrough experiments, which is a 31% increase compared to the CO 2 uptake from adsorption under dry conditions for the same duration. The breakthrough experiments show characteristics of internal mass-transfer limitations. The cyclic dynamic breakthrough experiments indicate stable operation without significant loss in CO 2 uptake across eight cycles. Moreover, the self-supported monolith shows minimal loss in adsorption capacity (7.7%) upon exposure to air containing 21% oxygen at 110 °C, in comparison to a conventional sorbent consisting of poly(ethylenimine) impregnated on Al 2 O 3 (18.9%). The monoliths exhibit good mechanical stability, contributed by elastic deformation, corresponding to up to 74% strain and lower pressure drop compared to many existing monoliths in the literature.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Power Generation and Oxygen Transfer Analyses for Micro Hydro-Turbine Installed in Wastewater Treatment Aeration Tank

This study targets one of the major energy consumers in the U.S. It suggests a new mechanical system that can recover a portion of the energy in Wastewater Treatment Plants (WWTPs). The proposed system entails a hydro-turbine installed above the air diffuser in the aeration tank to extract the water-bubble current’s kinetic energy and converts it to electricity. Observing the optimum location of the turbine required multiple experiments where turbine height varies between 35% and 95% (water height percentages above the diffuser), while varying the airflow between 1.42 L/s (3 CFM) and 2.12 L/s (4.5 CFM) with a 0.24 L/s (0.5 CFM) increment. Additionally, three water heights of 38.1 cm (15*), 53.4 cm (21*), and 68.6 cm (27*) were considered to study the influence of the water height. It was noticed that the presence of the system has an adverse effect on the standard oxygen transfer efficiency (SOTE). Therefore, a small dual-blade propeller was installed right above the diffuser to directly mix the water in the bottom of the tank with the incoming air to enhance the SOTE. The results showed that the maximum reclaimed power was obtained where the hydro-turbine is installed at 65–80% above the diffuser. A reduction of up to 7.32% in SOTE was observed when the setup was placed inside the tank compared to the tank alone. The addition of the dual-blade propeller showed an increase in SOTE of 7.27% with a power loss of 6.21%, ensuring the aeration process was at its standards.

Energy & Fuels↗

Modulating surface acoustic wave generation through superconductivity

Surface acoustic waves (SAWs), with their five orders-of-magnitude slower propagation velocity, allow for considerably shorter wavelengths at the same frequency compared to electromagnetic waves. The short wavelengths allow for device miniaturization and on-chip integration. The generic design of these devices involves piezoelectric substrates with comb-like arrays of Al or Au electrodes known as interdigitated transducers (IDTs) deposited on the surface. However, Al and Au both have shortcomings at the cryogenic temperatures required for quantum applications, namely, the formation of two-level systems and the lack of superconductivity perpetuating Ohmic losses, respectively. In this work, SAWs are generated in the high-MHz to low-GHz range using niobium nitride (NbN) interdigitated transducers and Bragg reflectors. We demonstrate the fabrication of acoustic devices through photolithography and reactive ion etching. The sharp transition between superconducting and normal states and the corresponding change in SAW transmission allows for fine control of the “on” (superconducting) and “off” (normal) states of NbN, with a ΔT = 1 K separating the transmission minimum and maximum. We demonstrate a 16× difference in transmission between the “on” and “off” states of the device. The SAW transmission behavior mirrors the change in resistance of NbN at its T c . These findings open up new possibilities for the integration of NbN SAW resonators into existing quantum architectures based on NbN and a method for adjusting transmission properties independent of applied voltage.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Delineating the Roles of Mn, Al, and Co by Comparing Three Layered Oxide Cathodes with the Same Nickel Content of 70% for Lithium-Ion Batteries

High-nickel layered oxides continue to prevail in the energy storage market as the frontmost cathode candidates for next-generation lithium-ion batteries. Demand and development of LiNi 1–x–y Mn x Co y O 2 (NMC) and LiNi 1–x–y Co x Al y O 2 (NCA) cathodes are rampantly increasing, particularly for the electric vehicle (EV) industry. However, the continued presence of cobalt in NMC and NCA cathodes raises global concerns due to geopolitical and ethical issues attributed to Co sourcing. We herein introduce a novel cobalt-free, high-nickel cathode LiNi 0.7 Mn 0.25 Al 0.05 O 2 (NMA70) and benchmark it against Co-containing LiNi 0.7 Mn 0.15 Co 0.15 O 2 (NMC70) as well as Co- and Al-free LiNi 0.7 Mn 0.3 O 2 (NM70) cathodes with equivalent 70% Ni contents that are all synthesized in-house. NMA70 displays a high initial C/10 capacity of 210 mA h g –1 , matching that of NMC70 in half cells with a cutoff voltage of 4.5 V. NMA70 also exhibits an impressive high-voltage full cell cycling performance with a cutoff voltage of 4.4 V with a nearly identical capacity retention of 83% compared to that of 82% for NMC70 after 300 cycles. Postmortem X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), high-angle annular dark-field scanning transmission electron microscopy (HAADF-STEM), and electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) analyses indicate a thinner cathode–electrolyte interface (CEI) developed in NMA70 compared to that in NM70 and unveil a more robust solid-electrolyte interface (SEI) passivation on the graphite anode among all samples. The benefits of Al doping are additionally highlighted with enhanced high-voltage CEI and thermal stabilities in NMA70. Furthermore, this work assesses the roles of Mn, Al, and Co to demonstrate both the practicality and feasibility of synthesizing cobalt-free, high-nickel cathodes that are promising alternatives to current NMC- and NCA-based cathodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Self-generated magnetic fields in the hot spot of direct-drive cryogenic implosions at Omega

This work reports that Biermann self-generated magnetic fields of ≈200 MG and Hall parameters of ≈1.5 are produced in the stagnation phase of direct-drive cryogenic implosions at Omega. The magnetic fields produce a drop of 2.4% in fusion yield and 1% in ion temperature. A quantitative estimate of the effect of self-generated magnetic fields on yield and ion temperature is essential, since direct measurements of these fields are not available. Reconstructed simulations of the 50 Gbar implosions, with all the stagnation measurements reproduced simultaneously by a combination of mid- and low-mode asymmetries as degradation mechanisms [Bose et al., Phys. Plasmas 25, 062701 (2018)], are used to obtain the estimates. The magnetic fields cause a decrease in yield due to the Righi–Leduc heat flow, which exceeds any benefits from heat flow suppression due to magnetization. It is important to note that both direct-drive Omega-scale implosions and indirect-drive National Ignition Facility (NIF)-scale implosions [Walsh et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 118, 155001 (2017)] produce similar estimates for the magnetic field strength, and both show a decrease in fusion yield, with the Righi–Leduc transport as the loss mechanism. However, the yield degradation at Omega is small and lower by ≈5× compared to the indirect-drive ignition-scale NIF estimate.

Physics↗

An Active Learning-Based Streaming Pipeline for Reduced Data Training of Structure Finding Models in Neutron Diffractometry

Structure determination workloads in neutron diffractometry are computationally expensive and routinely require several hours to many days to determine the structure of a material from its neutron diffraction patterns. The potential for machine learning models trained on simulated neutron scattering patterns to significantly speed up these tasks have been reported recently. However, the amount of simulated data needed to train these models grows exponentially with the number of structural parameters to be predicted and poses a significant computational challenge. To overcome this challenge, we introduce a novel batch-mode active learning (AL) policy that uses uncertainty sampling to simulate training data drawn from a probability distribution that prefers labelled examples about which the model is least certain. We confirm its efficacy in training the same models with ∼ 75% less training data while improving the accuracy. We then discuss the design of an efficient stream-based training workflow that uses this AL policy and present a performance study on two heterogeneous platforms to demonstrate that, compared with a conventional training workflow, the streaming workflow delivers ∼ 20% shorter training time without any loss of accuracy.

Wang, Tianle [Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL)↗

Iterated Gauss-Seidel GMRES

The GMRES algorithm of Saad and Schultz [SIAM J. Sci. Stat. Comput., 7 (1986), pp. 856-869] is an iterative method for approximately solving linear systems Ax = b, with initial guess x0 and residual r0 = b Ax0. The algorithm employs the Arnoldi process to generate the Krylov basis vectors (the columns of Vk ). It is well known that this process can be viewed as a QR factorization of the matrix Bk = [r0, AVk] at each iteration. Despite an O (..epsilon..)..kappa.. (Bk ) loss of orthogonality, for unit roundoff ..epsilon..and condition number ..kappa.. , the modified Gram-Schmidt formulation was shown to be backward stable in the seminal paper by Paige et al. [SIAM J. Matrix Anal.Appl., 28 (2006), pp. 264-284]. We present an iterated Gauss-Seidel formulation of the GMRES algorithm (IGS-GMRES) based on the ideas of Ruhe [Linear Algebra Appl., 52 (1983), pp. 591-601] and Swirydowicz et al. [Numer. Linear Algebra Appl., 28 (2020), pp. 1-20]. IGS-GMRES maintains orthogonality to the level O (..epsilon..)..kappa.. (Bk ) or O (..epsilon..), depending on the choice of one or two iterations; for two Gauss-Seidel iterations, the computed Krylov basis vectors remain orthogonal to working accuracy and the smallest singular value of Vk remains close to one. The resulting GMRES method is thus backward stable. We show that IGS-GMRES can be implemented with only a single synchronization point per iteration, making it relevant to large-scale parallel computing environments. We also demonstrate that, unlike MGS-GMRES, in IGS-GMRES the relative Arnoldi residual corresponding to the computed approximate solution no longer stagnates above machine precision even for highly nonnormal systems.

Arnoldi-QR↗

Mitigation of DESI fiber assignment incompleteness effect on two-point clustering with small angular scale truncated estimators

We present a method to mitigate the effects of fiber assignment incompleteness in two-point power spectrum and correlation function measurements from galaxy spectroscopic surveys, by truncating small angular scales from estimators. We derive the corresponding modified correlation function and power spectrum windows to account for the small angular scale truncation in the theory prediction. We validate this approach on simulations reproducing the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1 (DR1) with and without fiber assignment. We show that we recover unbiased cosmological constraints using small angular scale truncated estimators from simulations with fiber assignment incompleteness, with respect to standard estimators from complete simulations. Additionally, we present an approach to remove the sensitivity of the fits to high k modes in the theoretical power spectrum, by applying a transformation to the data vector and window matrix. We find that our method efficiently mitigates the effect of fiber assignment incompleteness in two-point correlation function and power spectrum measurements, at low computational cost and with little statistical loss.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Intrinsically sodiophilic, mesoporous metal-free wetting layers based on inexpensive carbon black for sodium-metal batteries

In this article, elevated temperature molten Na batteries are seeing a resurgence of interest for low-cost electrochemical energy storage for the grid. Of the many recent innovations in this battery concept, new methods focused on intermediate temperature operation (e.g. 110–190 °C) have gained prominence as a way to enable comparable performance with less thermal energy loss and lower-cost materials of construction. However, the poor wettability of molten Na on suitable solid-electrolyte separators such as sodium Beta Alumina Solid-Electrolyte (Na-β”-Al 2 O 3 , ‘BASE’) requires continued innovation in interface engineering to promote full utilization of the solid-electrolyte surface area and minimize cell resistance. There have been many successful approaches to improve Na-wettability to-date including heat treatment in an inert atmosphere to remove adsorbed surface species, deposition of alloying metals such as Pb, Sn, or Bi, and use of carbon-based interfacial layers. However, these approaches either lack the ability to provide good wetting at very low temperatures (near the melting point of Na) or rely on non-scalable processes and/or toxic/expensive metals. To solve these issues, a new carbon-based sodiophilic treatment is demonstrated, which utilizes inexpensive components to form a meso/macroporous sodiophilic layer, is easily applied via drop-casting or spray-coating, provides excellent wetting as low as 110 °C, and is completely metal-free. It is found that the good sodium wetting can be attributed to the wider range of pore sizes in the carbon layers demonstrated in this study. Na wetting may occur as surface tension is initially broken by larger pores, followed by the intrusion of molten Na into smaller pores due to the apparent intrinsic affinity of Na-metal for carbon surfaces, in conjunction with the capillarity effect. Low cell-level area specific resistances of 20–30 and 13–15 Ω·cm 2 are demonstrated at 110 and 140 °C respectively. Finally, the utility of this metal-free wetting layer for solid-Na anodes is explored, showing that the metal-free wetting layer can reach a critical current density of 1.88 mA·cm -2 at 30 °C.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Intrinsic Kinetic Limitations in Substituted Lithium-Layered Transition-Metal Oxide Electrodes

Substituted Li-layered transition-metal oxide (LTMO) electrodes such as Li x Ni y Mn z Co 1-y-z O 2 (NMC) and Li x Ni y Co 1-y-z Al z O 2 (NCA) show reduced first cycle Coulombic efficiency (90-87% under standard cycling conditions) in comparison with the archetypal Li x CoO 2 (LCO; similar to 98% efficiency). Focusing on Li x Ni 0.8 Co 0.15 Al 0.0.5 O 2 as a model compound, we use operando synchrotron X-ray diffraction (XRD) and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to demonstrate that the apparent first-cycle capacity loss is a kinetic effect linked to limited Li mobility at x > 0.88, with near full capacity recovered during a potentiostatic hold following the galvanostatic charge- discharge cycle. This kinetic capacity loss, unlike many capacity losses in LTMOs, is independent of the cutoff voltage during delithiation and it is a reversible process. The kinetic limitation manifests not only as the kinetic capacity loss during discharge but as a subtle bimodal compositional distribution early in charge and, also, a dramatic increase of the charge-discharge voltage hysteresis at x > 0.88. 7 Li NMR measurements indicate that the kinetic limitation reflects limited Li transport at x > 0.86. Electrochemical measurements on a wider range of LTMOs including Li x (Ni,Fe) y Co 1-y O 2 suggest that 5% substitution is sufficient to induce the kinetic limitation and that the effect is not limited to Ni substitution. In this paper, we outline how, in addition to a reduction in the number of Li vacancies and shrinkage of the Li-layer size, the intrinsic charge storage mechanism (two-phase vs solid-solution) and localization of charge give rise to additional kinetic barriers in NCA and nonmetallic LTMOs in general.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Techno-economic implications and cost of forecasting errors in solar PV power production using optimized deep learning models

Accurate solar Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is important for enhancing both the performance and economic feasibility of PV systems. This study evaluates several deep learning models, including Dense Neural Networks (DNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and a hybrid LSTMCNN model, for predicting PV power production one day in advance. Prior to optimization, the models exhibited relatively high errors, with the best model (DNN) achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 31.13 kW and a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 62.15 %. After employing Bayesian optimization, the LSTM-CNN model demonstrated the best performance, with the RMSE reduced to 9.79 kW and R 2 improved to 97.62 %, showcasing significant enhancement in predictive accuracy. Here, the economic evaluation considered three cases: rewards for underestimation (0.08 USD/kWh), no rewards, and penalties for both over-and underestimation (120 % of the utility tariff). In the rewards scenario, the LSTM-CNN model reduced the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) by 4 %, while in the penalty scenario, a backup diesel generator would have increased the LCOE by 49 %. Additionally, the LSTM-CNN model minimized financial losses, achieving the lowest penalties and maximizing net cash flow compared to other models, demonstrating its overall technical and economic superiority.

Deep learning↗

Ion-rich Acceleration during an Eruptive Flux Rope Event in a Multiple Null-point Configuration

We report on the γ-ray emission above 100 MeV from the GOES M3.3 flare SOL2012-06-03. The hard X-ray (HXR) and microwave emissions have typical time profiles with a fast rise to a well-defined peak followed by a slower decay. The >100 MeV emission during the prompt phase displayed a double-peaked temporal structure with the first peak following the HXR and microwaves, and the second one, about 3 times stronger, occurring 17 ± 2 s later. The time profiles seem to indicate two separate acceleration mechanisms at work, where the second γ-ray peak reveals a potentially pure or at least largely dominant ion acceleration. The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly imaging shows a bright elliptical ribbon and a transient brightening in the northwestern (NW) region. Nonlinear force-free extrapolations at the time of the impulsive peaks show closed field lines connecting the NW region to the southeastern part of the ribbon, and the magnetic topology revealed clusters of nulls. These observations suggest a spine-and-fan geometry, and based on these observations, we interpret the second γ-ray peak as being due to the predominant acceleration of ions in a region with multiple null points. The >100 MeV emission from this flare also exhibits a delayed phase with an exponential decay of roughly 350 s. We find that the delayed emission is consistent with ions being trapped in a closed flux tube with gradual escape via their loss cone to the chromosphere.

Pesce-Rollins, Melissa [Istituto Nazionale di Fisi↗

Corrosion of Al-Fe self-pierce riveting joints with multiphysics-based modeling and experiments

Self-piercing riveting (SPR) is an extensively used joining technique to assemble dissimilar materials. However, this joining of the dissimilar materials can generate galvanic/crevice corrosion, which can drastically impact the mechanical properties and the service life of the joint. In this study, a multiphysics-based hybrid modeling approach is developed for the galvanic corrosion of the Al-Fe SPR joints, which can consider the corrosion initiation and corrosion evaluation jointly. Experimental studies are first performed to extract information regarding the corrosion initiation sites, corrosion evolution and overall corrosion induced material loss in SPR joints. The initiation information is then passed onto the multiphysics FE model thus making it a hybrid model. This model can help understand the influences of metal microstructure on the corrosion propagation while the morphology changes can also be analyzed. Using the developed hybrid modeling approach, thorough parametric studies can be performed to explore the coupled impacts of multiple corrosion factors on the corrosion behavior of the joints. The developed hybrid model is validated on the prediction of galvanic corrosion for the SPR joints by comparing with experimental observations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Electrochemical Oxidation in Garnet-Type Solid Electrolyte by Formation of Point Defects

All-solid-state batteries hold greater promise for improving safety and energy density over conventional battery technology employing organic liquid electrolytes. One of the required features of a Li + conducting solid electrolyte is electrochemical stability, attained thermodynamically or kinetically, within the targeted operating voltage and temperature ranges. Therefore, understanding of the oxidative or reductive degradation mechanism is important to allow the design of stable solid electrolyte materials. This work contributes to building an understanding of the oxidative degradation mechanism in lithium solid electrolytes at cell operating conditions. Here, we have focused on resolving the oxidative decomposition mechanism of Al-doped lithium garnet Li 6.28 Al 0.24 La 3 Zr 2 O 12 (LLZO) as a state-of-the-art inorganic ceramic electrolyte. By combining experimental and computational analyses, we show that oxidation of LLZO occurs by simultaneous loss of oxygen and lithium from the structure, resulting in substoichiometric LLZO, at a moderate temperature (80 °C) and a high electrode potential (4.3 V vs Li/Li + ). Based on X-ray absorption and diffraction analyses, we find that the zirconium coordination shells in LLZO contract while the crystal structure experiences positive chemical strain upon electrochemical oxidation. The results from ex situ structural characterization of both the local structure and crystal symmetry are supported by a substoichiometric LLZO with lithium and oxygen vacancies, modeled by density functional theory (DFT) calculations. These chemical and structural changes in LLZO suppress effective lithium-ion conductivity by an order of magnitude. Formation of lithium and oxygen vacancies in LLZO upon electrochemical oxidation is different from prior thermodynamic predictions of phase decomposition of LLZO. The difference here is that the experiments were conducted at near-room temperature, which can hinder the kinetics of phase separation, and thus, the resultant LLZO solid electrolyte is still single-phase but substoichiometric in Li and O. In conclusion, these findings contribute an important degradation mechanism of the electrolyte, relevant for practical operational conditions of solid-state batteries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Unraveling the Highly Plastic Behavior of ALD-Aluminum Oxide Encapsulations by Small-Scale Tensile Testing

We present a study directly measuring the electron-beam-induced plasticity of amorphous Al 2 O 3 coatings. Core–shell nanostructures are employed as small-scale model systems for two-dimensional coatings made by atomic layer deposition (ALD). Copper nanowires (NWs) are used as substrates for ALD deposition, representing a model system for interconnects commonly found in integrated circuits. Experiments are performed in situ in a transmission electron microscope (TEM) and further analyzed with electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS). Our in situ TEM tensile experiments reveal the highly plastic behavior of the ALD shell, which withstands a maximum strain of 188%. Comparable samples under beam-off conditions show a brittle fracture, which underlines the effect of electron irradiation. The electron-beam-activated bond switching within the amorphous network enables compensation of the applied tensile strain, leading to viscous flow. By incorporating an intermediate nanocrystalline layer within the Al 2 O 3 shell, the plasticity is suppressed and brittle fracture occurs. This work directly demonstrates the tuning of mechanical properties in amorphous ALD structures through electron irradiation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

System-size dependence of charged-particle suppression in ultrarelativistic nucleus-nucleus collisions

High-energy partons lose energy while propagating through the hot, strongly interacting medium produced in ultrarelativistic nucleus-nucleus collisions, leading to a suppression of particle production at high transverse momentum (p T ). The dependence of this energy loss on the size of the colliding nuclear system has yet to be firmly established experimentally. This Letter presents a systematic study of charged-particle suppression across four different nucleus-nucleus collision systems using nuclear modification factors (R AA ) measured by the CMS Collaboration at the CERN LHC. Previous CMS measurements of R AA in oxygen-oxygen, xenon-xenon, and lead-lead collisions are recast with identical p T intervals and are complemented by the first measurement of the charged-particle R AA in neon-neon collisions at $\sqrt{S_{NN}}$ = 5.36 Te V . The neon-neon data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 0.76 nb −1 . The R AA in all collision systems examined show similar qualitative trends as a function of p T , but have a magnitude which is ordered with the nucleon number A. The R AA feature a downward slope at low p T , a local minimum at around 5–7 Ge V , and an upward slope with increasing p T . The R AA are also compared in terms of A 1/3 , which is proportional to the nuclear radius. Models including only initial-state nuclear effects fail to reproduce the observed trends, whereas energy loss models reproduce the trends in the region p T > 9.6 Ge V .

CMS↗

A Planetary Defense System For Responsive Space Missions

As King et al succinctly write, “Collision between the Earth and small objects in the solar system are known to occur regularly, and can result in extinction-level events at their most energetic or more commonly widespread loss of life or economic destruction even for relatively low-energy impacts.” Currently, the JPL Sentry System and the NASA NEO Surveyor mission track, identify, and monitor potential asteroid threats. The JPL Sentry System4 is an automated collision monitoring system which scans the current asteroid catalog for potential impact trajectories with Earth. A 2017 study led by P. Tricarico titled “The near-Earth asteroid population from two decades of observations” analyzes the combined observations of nine leading asteroid surveys. The NASA NEO Surveyor mission seeks to identify 90% of near-Earth objects (NEO) with diameters greater than 140 meters (460 feet) within 10 years. The NEO Surveyor combines data from two infrared imaging detectors to measure NEO size, composition, shape, rotational state, and orbits. Recently, the NASA Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission successfully altered the orbit of asteroid moon Dimorphos in 2022. This demonstrated that orbit alteration is possible. Thus, collisions between the Earth and asteroids are both likely and demonstrate potential for great harm. There is ongoing work to identify, catalog, and track potential threats. However, when a threat is identified there is not yet a system in place to target the threatening asteroid and defend the planet from potentially existential threats. Building on the DART Mission, we explore a planetary defense system to mitigate asteroid threats.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Prediction of performance and turbulence in ITER burning plasmas via nonlinear gyrokinetic profile prediction

Burning plasma performance, transport, and the effect of hydrogen isotope (H, D, D-T fuel mix) on confinement has been predicted for ITER baseline scenario (IBS) conditions using nonlinear gyrokinetic profile predictions. Accelerated by surrogate modeling (Rodriguez-Fernandez et al 2022 Nucl. Fusion 62 076036), high fidelity, nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations performed with the CGYRO code (Candy et al 2016 J. Comput. Phys. 324 73), were used to predict profiles of T i , T e , and n e while including the effects of alpha heating, auxiliary power (NBI + ECH), collisional energy exchange, and radiation losses inside of $r/a$ = 0.9. Predicted profiles and resulting energy confinement are found to produce fusion power and gain that are approximately consistent with mission goals ($P_\textrm{fusion} = 500$ MW at Q = 10) for the baseline scenario and exhibit energy confinement that is within 1σ of the H-mode energy confinement scaling. The power of the surrogate modeling technique is demonstrated through the prediction of alternative ITER scenarios with reduced computational cost. These scenarios include conditions with maximized fusion gain and an investigation of potential resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) effects on performance with a minimal number of gyrokinetic profile iterations required (3–6). These predictions highlight the stiff ITG nature of the core turbulence predicted in the ITER baseline and demonstrate that $Q \gt$ 17 conditions may be accessible by reducing auxiliary input power while operating in IBS conditions. Prediction of full kinetic profiles allowed for the projection of hydrogen isotope effects around ITER baseline conditions. The gyrokinetic fuel ion species was varied from H, D, and 50/50 D-T and kinetic profiles were predicted. Results indicate that a weak or negligible isotope effect will be observed to arise from core turbulence in IBS conditions. The resulting energy confinement, turbulence, and density peaking, and the implications for ITER operations will be discussed.

gyrokinetics↗