Probabilistic feedback.
Fokker-Planck equation for probability density of dynamical system under random input and probabilistic feedback applied to closed loop control systems analysis
Foy, W. H., Jr.↗
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Dual frequency correlation radar measurements of the height statistics of ocean waves
A radar technique has been developed for measuring the statistical height properties of a random rough surface. This method is being applied to the problem of measuring the significant wave height and probability density function of ocean waves from an aircraft or spacecraft. Earlier theoretical and laboratory results have been extended to define the requirements and performance limitations of flight systems. Some details of the current airborne radar system are discussed and results obtained on several experimental missions are presented and interpreted.
Weissman, D. E.↗
Industrialization study
The investment process in U.S. industries was studied in order to characterize the critical elements in major high risk investment decisions. Because motivation was determined to be the greatest single factor force in inducing a company to invest in a high risk venture, the relative impact of alternative government programs and policies on personal and financial motivations were analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively to ascertain the effect on these programs and policies on photovoltaic industrialization. The government alternatives are ranked on the basis of their ease of implementation and their probable effect. The recommended sequence in which government policies would be applied to maximize the industrialization of the photovoltaic venture is discussed.
Source record↗
Remote sensing of sea state by laser altimeters
The reflection of short laser pulses from the ocean surface was analyzed based on the specular point theory of scattering. The expressions for the averaged received signal, shot noise and speckle induced noise were derived for a direct detection system. It is found that the reflected laser pulses have an average shape closely related to the probability density function associated with the surface profile. This result is applied to estimate the mean sea level and significant wave height from the receiver output of the laser altimeter.
Tsai, B.↗
Shocked relativistic magnetohydrodynamic flows with application to pulsar winds
The time-dependent behavior of a shocked spherically symmetric relativistic fluid with tangential magnetic field is investigated, considering the case where the boundaries of the shocked fluid move at constant velocity so that self-similar solutions exist. The behavior of the fluid in the ultrarelativistic regime is compared to that in the nonrelativistic regime; there is a smooth transition between these limits. If a magnetic field is present, the magnetic pressure becomes increasingly important with distance from the shock wave; the gas pressure vanishes at the contact discontinuity that bounds the flow. Analytic expressions are given which describe the flow. The solutions can be applied to the evolution of shocked relativistic pulsar winds, which are probably observed as Crab-like supernova remnants. A model for the Crab Nebula, based on the steady-state model of Kennel and Coroniti (1984), indicates that sigma = 0.0016, where sigma is twice the ratio of magnetic to particle energy in the wind as measured in the fluid frame. This is about half the value suggested by Kennel and Coroniti and is much smaller than the value that might be expected for a pulsar wind.
Emmering, Robert T.↗
A methodology for validating software reliability
A significant problem associated with fault tolerant computer system design is how to insure that there are no embedded software errors, so that an avionics computer system meets the required reliability level. To accomplish this, it is necessary to associate a 'probability of failure' with the operational flight program. It would be more correct to say that the probability of excitation of existing latent design errors within the program is required. In this sense, latent software errors are like latent hardware faults, and techniques that were previously used to measure the probability of failure of hardware due to fault latency can be used to measure the probability of failure of the software. A methodology was developed and applied to a flight control program that was known to operate in a well defined environment. The results indicated that the technique could be used to provide a final validation of the software to a specified reliability level and to evaluate the role of flight test in software validation.
Swern, Frederic L.↗
Incorporating finite element analysis into component life and reliability
A method for calculating a component's design survivability by incorporating finite element analysis and probabilistic material properties was developed. The method evaluates design parameters through direct comparisons of component survivability expressed in terms of Weibull parameters. The analysis was applied to a rotating disk with mounting bolt holes. The highest probability of failure occurred at, or near, the maximum shear stress region of the bolt holes. Distribution of failure as a function of Weibull slope affects the probability of survival. Where Weibull parameters are unknown for a rotating disk, it may be permissible to assume Weibull parameters, as well as the stress-life exponent, in order to determine the disk speed where the probability of survival is highest.
August, Richard↗
Fatigue criterion to system design, life and reliability: A primer
A method for estimating a component's design survivability by incorporating finite element analysis and probabilistic material properties was developed. The method evaluates design parameters through direct comparisons of component survivability expressed in terms of Weibull parameters. The analysis was applied to a rotating disk with mounting bolt holes. The highest probability of failure occurred at, or near, the maximum shear stress region of the bolt holes. Distribution of material failure as a function of Weibull slope affects the probability of survival. Where Weibull parameters are unknown for a rotating disk, it may be permissible to assume Weibull parameters, as well as the stress-life exponent, in order to determine the qualitative effect of disk speed on the probability of survival.
Zaretsky, Erwin V.↗
Mission objectives and comparison of strategies for Mars exploration
Over the past several years, a number of candidate scenarios for the human exploration of Mars have been advanced. These have had a range of mission objectives, scope, scale, complexity and probable cost. The Exploration Programs Office (ExPO) has developed a reference Mars exploration program and a means of comparing it to other proposed Mars programs. The reference program was initiated in a workshop of Mars exploration advocates which defined two objectives of equal importance for early Mars exploration - understanding Mars and understanding the potential of Mars to support humans. These goals were used to define a set of transportation and surface elements that could carry out a robust exploration program. The approach to comparing alternate architectures has three principal parts: (1) Bringing the architectures into rough commonality in terms of surface mission objectives and hardware capabilities; (2) Providing a common level of human support for flights to and from Mars; and (3) Comparing the complexity of the elements needed to carry out the program and using partial redundancy to approximate the same statistical probability of mission success. This top-level approach has been applied to the ExPO reference program, the 'Mars Directs strategy (Zubrin, 1991) and the Stanford International Mars Mission (Lusignan, 1992).
Duke, Michael B.↗
Lick optical spectra of quasar HS 1946+7658 at 10 kilometers per second resolution Lyman-alpha forest and metal absorption systems
We present optical spectra of the most luminous known quasi stellar object (QSO) HS 1946+7658 (z(sub em) = 3.051). Our spectra have both full wavelength coverage, 3240-10570 A, and in selected regions, either high signal-to-noise ratio, SNR approximately equals 40-100, or unusually high approximately 10 km/sec resolution, and in parts of the Ly alpha forest and to the red of Ly alpha emission they are among the best published. We find 113 Ly alpha systems and six metal-line systems, three of which are new. The metal systems at z(sub abs) = 2.844 and 3.050 have complex velocity structure with four and three prominent components, respectively. We find that the system at z(sub abs) = 2.844 is a damped Ly alpha absorption (DLA) system, with a neutral hydrogen column density of log N(H I) = 20.2 +/- 0.4, and it is the cause of the Lyman limit break at lambda approximately equals 3520 A. We believe that most of the H I column density in this system is in z(sub abs) = 2.8443 component which shows the strongest low-ionization absorption lines. The metal abundance in the gas phase of the system is (M/H) approximately equals -2.6 +/- 0.3, with a best estimate of (M/H) = -2.8, with ionizaion parameter log gamma = -2.75, from a photoionization model. The ratios of the logarithmic abundances of C, O, Al, and Si are all within a factor of 2 of solar, which is important for two reasons. First, we believe that the gas abundances which we measure are close to the total abundances, because the ratio of aluminum to other elements is near cosmic, and Al is a refractory element which depletes very readily like chromium, in the interstellar medium. Second, we do not see the enhancement of O with respect to C of (O/C) approximately equals 0.5-0.9 reported in three partial Lyman limit systems by Reimers et al. (1992) and Vogel & Reimers (1993); we measure (O/C) = -0.06 for observed ions and (O/C) approximately equals 0.2 after ionization corrections, which is consistent with solar abundances. We see C II*(lambda 1335) offset by 15 km/sec with respect to C II(lambda 1334), presumably because the gas density varies from 2 to 8 cm(exp -3) with changing velocity in the DLA system. These densities imply that the damped component is 6-25 pc thick, which is reasonable for a single cloud in a cold spiral disk. They also imply that the cloud is relatively highly ionized with more C III than C II, more O III than O I, and log N(H I) = 20.72, which is 3 times the H I column. The system at z(abs) = 1.7382 is also believed to be damped with N(H I) approximately equals 10(exp 21) cm(exp -2), because we see Cr II, but its Ly alpha line will never be seen because it is below the Lyman limit of the other DLA system. We see a 2.6 sigma lack of Ly alpha forest lines well away from the QSO redshift, which may be a chance fluctuation. We also see a correlation between column density N(H I) and Doppler parameter b for 96 unsaturated Ly Alpha forest absorption lines, and although this correlation persists in the 36 Ly alpha lines which lie in regions where the SNR approximately equals 8-16, we agree with Rauch et al. (1993) that it is probably a bogus effect of low supernova remnant (SNR). The same applies to lines with very low b values: in regions where SNR less than or equal to 8 we see many Ly alpha lines which appear to have 10 less than or equal to b less than or equal to 20, but when 8 less than or equal to SNR less than or equal to 16 we see only one line with b less than or equal to 15 km/sec, and two others which we believe have b less than or equal to 20, with values of 20 and 16 km/sec. Traditional Ly alpha line samples which include all lines which have W/sigma(W) greater than or equal to 4 are not adequate to explore the distribution of the properties of individual clouds, because we need much higher (W/sigma(W)) and SNR to avoid the strong biases.
Fan, Xiao-Ming↗
Kinetic Roughening Transition and Energetics of Tetragonal Lysozyme Crystal Growth
Interpretation of lysozyme crystal growth rates using well-established physical theories enabled the discovery of a phenomenon possibly indicative of kinetic roughening. For example, lysozyme crystals grown above a critical supersaturation sigma, (where supersaturation sigma = ln c/c(sub eq), c = the protein concentration and c(sub eq) = the solubility concentration) exhibit microscopically rough surfaces due to the continuous addition of growth units anywhere on the surface of a crystal. The rate of crystal growth, V(sub c), for the continuous growth process is determined by the continuous flux of macromolecules onto a unit area of the crystal surface, a, from a distance, xi, per unit time due to diffusion, and a probability of attachment onto the crystal surface, expressed. Based upon models applied, the energetics of lysozyme crystal growth was determined. The magnitudes of the energy barriers of crystal growth for both the (110) and (101) faces of tetragonal lysozyme crystals are compared. Finally, evidence supportive of the kinetic roughening hypothesis is presented.
Gorti, Sridhar↗
Optimal Stimulus Amplitude for Vestibular Stochastic Stimulation to Improve Sensorimotor Function
Sensorimotor changes such as postural and gait instabilities can affect the functional performance of astronauts when they transition across different gravity environments. We are developing a method, based on stochastic resonance (SR), to enhance information transfer by applying non-zero levels of external noise on the vestibular system (vestibular stochastic resonance, VSR). Our previous work has shown the advantageous effects of VSR in a balance task of standing on an unstable surface. This technique to improve detection of vestibular signals uses a stimulus delivery system that is wearable or portable and provides imperceptibly low levels of white noise-based binaural bipolar electrical stimulation of the vestibular system. The goal of this project is to determine optimal levels of stimulation for SR applications by using a defined vestibular threshold of motion detection. A series of experiments were carried out to determine a robust paradigm to identify a vestibular threshold that can then be used to recommend optimal stimulation levels for SR training applications customized to each crewmember. Customizing stimulus intensity can maximize treatment effects. The amplitude of stimulation to be used in the VSR application has varied across studies in the literature such as 60% of nociceptive stimulus thresholds. We compared subjects' perceptual threshold with that obtained from two measures of body sway. Each test session was 463s long and consisted of several 15s sinusoidal stimuli, at different current amplitudes (0-2 mA), interspersed with 20-20.5s periods of no stimulation. Subjects sat on a chair with their eyes closed and had to report their perception of motion through a joystick. A force plate underneath the chair recorded medio-lateral shear forces and roll moments. First we determined the percent time during stimulation periods for which perception of motion (activity above a pre-defined threshold) was reported using the joystick, and body sway (two standard deviation of the noise level in the baseline measurement) was detected by the sensors. The percentage time at each stimulation level for motion detection was normalized with respect to the largest value and a logistic regression curve fit was applied to these data. The threshold was defined at the 50% probability of motion detection. Comparison of threshold of motion detection obtained from joystick data versus body sway suggests that perceptual thresholds were significantly lower, and were not impacted by system noise. Further, in order to determine optimal stimulation amplitude to improve balance, two sets of experiments were carried out. In the first set of experiments, all subjects received the same level of stimuli and the intensity of optimal performance was projected back on subjects' vestibular threshold curve. In the second set of experiments, on different subjects, stimulation was administered from 20-400% of subjects' vestibular threshold obtained from joystick data. Preliminary results of our study show that, in general, using stimulation amplitudes at 40-60% of perceptual motion threshold improved balance performance significantly compared to control (no stimulation). The amplitude of vestibular stimulation that improved balance function was predominantly in the range of +/- 100 to +/- 400 micro A. We hypothesize that VSR stimulation will act synergistically with sensorimotor adaptability (SA) training to improve adaptability by increasing utilization of vestibular information and therefore will help us to optimize and personalize a SA countermeasure prescription. This combination will help to significantly reduce the number of days required to recover functional performance to preflight levels after long-duration spaceflight.
Goel, R.↗
Magnetospheric State of Sawtooth Events
Magnetospheric sawtooth events, first identified in the early 1990s, are named for their characteristic appearance of multiple quasiperiodic intervals of slow decrease followed by sharp increase of proton differential energy fluxes in the geosynchronous region. The successive proton flux oscillations have been interpreted as recurrences of stretching and dipolarization of the nightside geomagnetic field. Due to their often extended intervals with 210 cycles, sawteeth occurrences are sometimes referred to as a magnetospheric mode. While studies of sawtooth events over the past two decades have yielded a wealth of information about such events, the magnetospheric state conditions for the occurrence of sawtooth events and how sawtooth oscillations may depend on the magnetospheric state conditions remain unclear. In this study, we investigate the characteristic magnetospheric state conditions (specified by Psw interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Btot, IMF Bz Vsw, AE, Kp and Dst, all time shifted with respect to one another) associated with the intervals before, during, and after sawteeth occurrences. Applying a previously developed statistical technique, we have determined the most probable magnetospheric states propitious for the development and occurrence of sawtooth events, respectively. The statistically determined sawtooth magnetospheric state has also been validated by using out-of-sample events, confirming the notion that sawtooth intervals might represent a particular global state of the magnetosphere. We propose that the sawtooth state of the magnetosphere may be a state of marginal stability in which a slight enhancement in the loading rate of an otherwise continuous loading process can send the magnetosphere into the marginally unstable regime, causing it to shed limited amount of energy quickly and return to the marginally stable regime with the loading process continuing. Sawtooth oscillations result as the magnetosphere switches between the marginally stable (loading) and unstable (unloading) phases.
Fung, Shing F.↗
Bistatic-radar estimation of surface-slope probability distributions with applications to the moon.
A method for extracting surface-slope frequency distributions from bistatic-radar data has been developed and applied to the lunar surface. Telemetry transmissions from orbiting Apollo spacecraft were received on the earth after reflection from the lunar surface. The echo-frequency spectrum was related analytically to the probability distribution of lunar slopes. Standard regression techniques were used to solve the inverse problem of finding slope distributions from observed echo-frequency spectra. Data taken simultaneously at two wavelengths, 13 and 116 cm, have yielded diverse slope statistics.
Parker, M. N.↗
Assessment of the effects of space debris and meteoroids environment on the Space Station solar array assembly
The methodology used to assess the probability of no impact of space debris and meteoroids on a spacecraft structure is applied to the Space Station solar array assembly. Starting with space debris and meteoroid flux models, the projected surface area of the solar cell string circuit of the solar array panel and the mast longeron, and the design lifetime, the possibility of no impact on the solar mast and solar cell string circuits was determined as a function of particle size. The probability of no impact on the cell string circuits was used to derive the probability of no open circuit panel. The probability of meeting a certain power requirement at the end of the design lifetime was then calculated as a function of impacting particle size. Coupled with a penetration and damage models/correlations which relate the particle size to penetration depth and damage, the results of this analysis can be used to determine the probability of meeting the lower power requirement given a degree of redundancy, and the probability of no impact on the solar array mast.
Nahra, Henry K.↗
Assessment of the effects of space debris and meteoroids environment on the space station solar array assembly
The methodology used to assess the probability of no impact of space debris and meteoroids on a spacecraft structure is applied to the Space Station solar array assembly. Starting with the space debris and meteoroids flux models, the projected surface area of the solar cell string circuit of the solar array panel and the mast longeron, and the design lifetime, the possibility of no impact on the solar array mast and solar cell string circuits was determined as a function of particle size. The probability of no impact on the cell string circuits was used to derive the probability of no open circuit panel. The probability of meeting a certain power requirement at the end of the design lifetime was then calculated as a function of impacting particle size. Coupled with a penetration and damage models/correlations which relate the particle size to the penetration depth and damage, the results of this analysis can be used to determine the probability of meeting the lower power requirement given a degree of redundancy, and the probability of no impact on the solar array mast.
Nahra, Henry K.↗
On the probability of magnification by cosmologically distributed gravitational lenses
An analytical method for calculating the statistical properties of source magnification caused by gravitational lenses randomly distributed throughout the universe is presented. Two lenses are considered at different redshifts to show that such an assumption is a statistically adequate approximation. The derived general formulas are applied to point-mass lenses with both point and extended sources. Analytical results of the magnification probability for point sources are accurate to within 10 percent in comparison with the available numerical simulations to moderate redshifts of less than about 2. In terms of the flux conservation, the results are accurate to within 18 percent at a redshift of 6 with respect to the Dyer-Roeder model of a clumpy universe. It is concluded that the present formulas are adequate for statistical studies of magnification by random gravitational lenses on cosmological scales.
Pei, Yichuan C.↗
A study of techniques for processing multispectral scanner data
A linear decision rule to reduce the time required for processing multispectral scanner data is developed. Test results are presented which justify the use of the new rule for digital processing whenever both accuracy and processing time are important. A method of evaluating the performance of the rule is also developed and applied to the problem of choosing a subset of channels. A technique used to find linear combinations of channels is described. The ability to extend signatures throughout a small area of approximately fifty square miles is tested. After preprocessing, signatures derived from the first of seven overlapping data sets are applied to all data sets. The test results show that the average probability of misclassification tends to increase with an increase in the number of data sets over which the signatures are extended.
Crane, R. B.↗