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At least 163 records · Page 9

Enforcing positivity in intrusive PC-UQ methods for reactive ODE systems

We explore the relation between the development of a non-negligible probability of negative states and the instability of numerical integration of the intrusive Galerkin ordinary differential equation system describing uncertain chemical ignition. To prevent this instability without resorting to either multi-element local polynomial chaos (PC) methods or increasing the order of the PC representation in time, we propose a procedure aimed at modifying the amplitude of the PC modes to bring the probability of negative state values below a user-defined threshold. This modification can be effectively described as a filtering procedure of the spectral PC coefficients, which is applied on-the-fly during the numerical integration when the current value of the probability of negative states exceeds the prescribed threshold. We demonstrate the filtering procedure using a simple model of an ignition process in a batch reactor. This is carried out by comparing different observables and error measures as obtained by non-intrusive Monte Carlo and Gauss-quadrature integration and the filtered intrusive procedure. The filtering procedure has been shown to effectively stabilize divergent intrusive solutions, and also to improve the accuracy of stable intrusive solutions which are close to the stability limits.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Demonstration of Turnstiles as a Chaotic Ionization Mechanism in Rydberg Atoms

We present an experimental and theoretical study of the chaotic ionization of quasi-one-dimensional potassium Rydberg wave packets via a classical phase-space turnstile mechanism. Turnstiles form a general transport mechanism for numerous chaotic systems, and this study explicitly illuminates their relevance to atomic ionization. We create time-dependent Rydberg wave packets, subject them to alternating applied electric-field pulses, and measure the electron survival probability. Ionization depends not only on the initial electron energy, but also on the classical phase-space position of the electron with respect to the turnstile--that part of the electron packet inside the turnstile ionizes after the applied ionization sequence, while that part outside the turnstile does not. The survival data thus encode information on the shape and location of the turnstile, in good agreement with theoretical predictions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Effect of annealing on the laser induced damage of polished and CO{sub 2} laser-processed fused silica surfaces

We investigate the effect of different heat treatments on the laser-induced damage probabilities of fused silica samples. Isothermal annealing in a furnace is applied, with different temperatures in the range 700–1100 °C and 12 h annealing time, to super-polished fused silica samples. The surface flatness and laser damage probabilities at 3 ns, 351 nm are measured before and after the different annealing procedures. We have found a significant improvement of the initial laser damage probabilities of the silica surface after annealing at 1050 °C for 12 h. A similar study has been conducted on CO{sub 2} laser-processed sites on the surface of the samples. Before and after annealing, we have studied the morphology of the sites, the evolution of residual stress, and the laser-induced damage threshold measured at 351 nm, 3 ns. In this case, we observe that the laser damage resistance of the laser created craters can reach the damage level of the bare fused silica surface after the annealing process, with a complete stress relieve. The obtained results are then compared to the case of local annealing process by CO{sub 2} laser irradiation during 1 s, and we found similar improvements in both cases. The different results obtained in the study are compared to numerical simulations made with a thermo-mechanical model based on finite-element method that allows the simulation of the isothermal or the local annealing process, the evolution of stress and fictive temperature. The simulation results were found to be very consistent with experimental observations for the stresses evolution after annealing and estimation of the heat affected area during laser-processing based on the density dependence with fictive temperature. Following this work, the temperature for local annealing should reach 1330–1470 °C for an optimized reduction of damage probability and be below the threshold for material removal, whereas furnace annealing should be kept below the annealing point to avoid sample deformation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The Arctic LDRD project: What happened?

This presentation overviews results from the 2019 LDRD Reserve project “Diagnosing near-future changes in Arctic sea ice and ocean conditions” and a follow-up 2020 CSES Rapid Response project “Multi- Model Risk Assessment for Arctic Navigability.” We analyzed Arctic simulations from 4 CMIP6 model ensembles (E3SM, CESM-CAM, CESM-WACCM and CESM-DPLE), comparing them with observations. We then applied a machine-learning approach using copulas to produce joint probabilities of adverse conditions along potential shipping transit routes through the Arctic. Here we compare and contrast the different models and examine the utility of the copula approach applied to these data sets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

AN EFFICIENT AUTOMATED VALIDATION PROCEDURE FOR EXOPLANET TRANSIT CANDIDATES

Surveys searching for transiting exoplanets have found many more candidates than they have been able to confirm as true planets. This situation is especially acute with the Kepler survey, which has found over 2300 candidates but has to date confirmed only a small fraction of them as planets. I present here a general procedure that can quickly be applied to any planet candidate to calculate its false positive probability. This procedure takes into account the period, depth, duration, and shape of the signal; the colors of the target star; arbitrary spectroscopic or imaging follow-up observations; and informed assumptions about the populations and distributions of field stars and multiple-star properties. Applying these methods to a sample of known Kepler planets, I demonstrate that many signals can be validated with very limited follow-up observations: in most cases with only a spectrum and an adaptive optics image. Additionally, I demonstrate that this procedure can reliably identify false positive signals. Because of the computational efficiency of this analysis, it is feasible to apply it to all Kepler planet candidates in the near future, and it will streamline the follow-up efforts for Kepler and other current and future transit surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Typological representation of the offshore oceanographic environment along the Alaskan North Slope

Erosion and flooding impacts to Arctic coastal environments are intensifying with nearshore oceanographic conditions acting as a key environmental driver. Robust and comprehensive assessment of the nearshore oceanographic conditions require knowledge of the following boundary conditions: incident wave energy, water level, incident wind energy, ocean temperature and salinity, bathymetry, and shoreline orientation. The number of offshore oceanographic boundary conditions can be large, requiring a significant computational investment to reproduce nearshore conditions. This present study develops location-independent typologies to reduce the number of boundary conditions needed to assess nearshore oceanographic environments in both a Historical (2007–2019) and Future (2020–2040) timespan along the Alaskan North Slope. We used WAVEWATCH III® and Delft3D Flexible Mesh model output from six oceanographic sites located along a constant ~50 m bathymetric line spanning the Chukchi to Beaufort Seas. K-means clustering was applied to the energy-weighted joint-probability distribution of significant wave height (H s ) and peak period (T p ). Distributions of wave and wind direction, wind speed, and water level associated with location-independent centroids were assigned single values to describe a reduced order, typological rendition of offshore oceanographic conditions. Reanalysis data (e.g., ASRv2, ERA5, and GOFS) grounded the historical simulations while projected conditions were obtained from downscaled GFDL-CM3 forced under RCP8.5 conditions. Location-dependence for each site is established through the occurrence joint-probability distribution in the form of unique scaling factors representing the fraction of time that the typology would occupy over a representative year. As anticipated, these typologies show increasingly energetic ocean conditions in the future. They also enable computationally efficient simulation of the nearshore oceanographic environment along the North Slope of Alaska for better characterization of coastal processes (e.g., erosion, flooding, or sediment transport).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Finite element formulation of fluctuating hydrodynamics for fluids filled with rigid particles using boundary fitted meshes

In this paper, we present a finite element implementation of fluctuating hydrodynamics with a moving boundary fitted mesh for treating the suspended particles. The thermal fluctuations are incorporated into the continuum equations using the Landau and Lifshitz approach [1]. The proposed implementation fulfills the fluctuation–dissipation theorem exactly at the discrete level. Since we restrict the equations to the creeping flow case, this takes the form of a relation between the diffusion coefficient matrix and friction matrix both at the particle and nodal level of the finite elements. Brownian motion of arbitrarily shaped particles in complex confinements can be considered within the present formulation. A multi-step time integration scheme is developed to correctly capture the drift term required in the stochastic differential equation (SDE) describing the evolution of the positions of the particles. The proposed approach is validated by simulating the Brownian motion of a sphere between two parallel plates and the motion of a spherical particle in a cylindrical cavity. The time integration algorithm and the fluctuating hydrodynamics implementation are then applied to study the diffusion and the equilibrium probability distribution of a confined circle under an external harmonic potential.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Age gradients in the stellar populations of massive star forming regions based on a new stellar chronometer

A major impediment to understanding star formation in massive star-forming regions (MSFRs) is the absence of a reliable stellar chronometer to unravel their complex star formation histories. We present a new estimation of stellar ages using a new method that employs near-infrared (NIR) and X-ray photometry, Age {sub JX} . Stellar masses are derived from X-ray luminosities using the L{sub X} -M relation from the Taurus cloud. J-band luminosities are compared to mass-dependent pre-main-sequence (PMS) evolutionary models to estimate ages. Age {sub JX} is sensitive to a wide range of evolutionary stages, from disk-bearing stars embedded in a cloud to widely dispersed older PMS stars. The Massive Young Star-Forming Complex Study in Infrared and X-ray (MYStIX) project characterizes 20 OB-dominated MSFRs using X-ray, mid-infrared, and NIR catalogs. The Age {sub JX} method has been applied to 5525 out of 31,784 MYStIX Probable Complex Members. We provide a homogeneous set of median ages for over 100 subclusters in 15 MSFRs; median subcluster ages range between 0.5 Myr and 5 Myr. The important science result is the discovery of age gradients across MYStIX regions. The wide MSFR age distribution appears as spatially segregated structures with different ages. The Age {sub JX} ages are youngest in obscured locations in molecular clouds, intermediate in revealed stellar clusters, and oldest in distributed populations. The NIR color index J – H, a surrogate measure of extinction, can serve as an approximate age predictor for young embedded clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Scattering using real-time path integrals

Background: Path integrals are a powerful tool for solving problems in quantum theory that are not amenable to a treatment by perturbation theory. Most path integral computations require an analytic continuation to imaginary time. While imaginary time treatments of scattering are possible, imaginary time is not a natural framework for treating scattering problems. More importantly, quantum algorithms for calculating path integrals require real-time evolution. Purpose: Here, we test a recently introduced method for performing direct calculations of scattering observables using real-time path integrals in order to understand the challenges facing real-time path integral calculations of scattering observables. Method: The computations are based on a new interpretation of the path integral as the expectation value of a potential functional on cylinder sets of continuous paths with respect to a complex probability distribution. The method can in principle be applied to arbitrary short-range potentials. Results: The method is applied to compute matrix elements of Møller wave operators applied to narrow wave packets. These are used to calculate half-shell sharp-momentum transition matrix elements for one-dimensional potential scattering. The calculations for half-shell transition operator matrix elements converge to the numerical solution of the Lippmann-Schwinger equation. Conclusions: This work presents a proof in principle that scattering observables can be computed using real-time Feynman path integrals. While the computational method is not efficient, it can be improved. It provides a laboratory for studying quantum computational algorithms that are applicable to scattering problems.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Preparation of excited states for nuclear dynamics on a quantum computer

We study two different methods to prepare excited states on a quantum computer, a key initial step to study dynamics within linear response theory. The first method uses unitary evolution for a short time T = O(√1 - F) to approximate the action of an excitation operator Ô with fidelity F and success probability P ≈ 1 – F. The second method probabilistically applies the excitation operator using the Linear Combination of Unitaries (LCU) algorithm. We benchmark these techniques on emulated and real quantum devices, using a toy model for thermal neutron-proton capture. Despite its larger memory footprint, the LCU-based method is efficient even on current generation noisy devices and can be implemented at a lower gate cost than a naive analysis would suggest. Here, these findings show that quantum techniques designed to achieve good asymptotic scaling on fault tolerant quantum devices might also provide practical benefits on devices with limited connectivity and gate fidelity.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Quantum Time-Space Tradeoffs for Matrix Problems

We consider the time and space required for quantum computers to solve a wide variety of problems involving matrices, many of which have only been analyzed classically in prior work. Our main results show that for a range of linear algebra problems—including matrix-vector product, matrix inversion, matrix multiplication and powering—existing classical time-space tradeoffs, several of which are tight for every space bound, also apply to quantum algorithms with at most a constant factor loss. For example, for almost all fixed matrices 𝐴, including the discrete Fourier transform matrix, we prove that quantum circuits with at most 𝑇 input queries and 𝑆 qubits of memory require 𝑇 = Ω⁢(𝑛 2 /𝑆) to compute matrix-vector product 𝐴⁢𝑥 for 𝑥 ∈{0,1 𝑛 . We similarly prove that matrix multiplication for 𝑛 ×𝑛 binary matrices requires 𝑇 = Ω⁢(𝑛 3 /$\sqrt{𝑆}$). Because many of our lower bounds are matched by deterministic algorithms with the same time and space complexity, our results show that quantum computers cannot provide any asymptotic advantage for these problems with any space bound. We obtain matching lower bounds for the stronger notion of quantum cumulative memory complexity—the sum of the space per layer of a circuit. We also consider Boolean (i.e., AND-OR) matrix multiplication and matrix-vector products, improving the previous quantum time-space tradeoff lower bounds for 𝑛 × 𝑛 Boolean matrix multiplication to 𝑇 = Ω⁢(𝑛 2.5 /𝑆 1/4 ) from 𝑇 = Ω⁢(𝑛 2.5 /𝑆 1/2 ). Our improved lower bound for Boolean matrix multiplication is based on a new coloring argument that extracts more from the strong direct product theorem that was the basis for prior work. To obtain our tight lower bounds for linear algebra problems, we require much stronger bounds than strong direct product theorems. We obtain these bounds by adding a new bucketing method to the quantum recording-query technique of Zhandry that lets us apply classical arguments to upper bound the success probability of quantum circuits.

lower bounds↗

Oceanographic Conditions. 2007 - 2040. North Slope Alaska.

Complete representations of oceanographic conditions require spatial and temporal information about the significant wave height (Hs), peak wave period (Tp), wind speed, wind direction, wave direction, water level, salinity, and temperature. This data develops location-independent typologies to reduce the number of boundary conditions needed to assess nearshore oceanographic environments in both a Historical (2007-2019) and Future (2020-2040) timespan along the Alaskan North Slope. Wave information for both time spans were generated from WaveWatch III, Delft3D-FLOW, and Delft3D-WAVE simulations forced by wind conditions from reanalysis data (e.g., ASRv2 and ERA5) for the historical simulations while projected conditions were obtained from downscaled GFDL-CM3 forced under RCP8.5 conditions. Salinity was generated from GOFS 3.1 for the years between 2008-2015 and skin temperature of the ocean was obtained from ASRv2 reanalysis data for the years between 2007-2016. To identify generalized oceanographic typologies, K-means clustering was applied to the energy-weighted joint-probability distribution of Hs and Tp at six sites along the North Slope of Alaska. Distributions of wave and wind direction, wind speed, and water level associated with locaiton-indepndent centroids were assigned single values to describe a reduced order, typological rendition of offshore oceanographic conditions. These final typologies and their constituent data are provided here and can be used to evaluate the change in ocean energy over the next two decades in response to climate change and provide insight into expected consequences such as coastal erosion and flooding. A full assessment of the findings and techniques developed can be found in: Eymold, W.K., Flanary, C., Erikson, L., Nederhoff, K., Chartrand, C.C., Jones, C., Kasper, J., and Bull, D.L. Typological Representation of the Offshore Oceanographic Environment along the Alaskan North Slope. Continental Shelf Research (2022). 10.1016/j.csr.2022.104795

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nonadiabatic Flamelet Formulation for Predicting Wall Heat Transfer in Rocket Engines

A flamelet-based combustion model is introduced for the prediction of wall heat transfer in rocket engines and confined combustion systems. To account for convective heat loss due to the interaction of the flame with the wall, a permeable thermal boundary condition is introduced in the counterflow diffusion flame configuration. The solution of the resulting nonadiabatic flame structure forms a three-dimensional manifold, which is parameterized in terms of mixture fraction, progress variable, and temperature. The performance of the model is first assessed through a direct numerical simulation analysis of an H 2 /O 2 diffusion flame that is stabilized at an inert isothermal wall. The developed nonadiabatic flamelet model is shown to accurately predict the temperature, chemical composition, and wall heat transfer. Combined with a presumed probability density function closure, the model is then applied to large-eddy simulation of a single-injector rocket combustor to examine effects of heat transfer on the turbulent flame structure in rocket engines.

42 ENGINEERING↗

ML Classifier Fusion for Three Data Streams with Quality Inversely Proportional to Time Resolution

We consider a monitoring scenario of phenomenon using three different streams of measurements whose quality is proportional to their constant inter-arrival times. Each measurement of a stream needs to be binary-classified to reflect the state of interest of the phenomenon. A set of classifiers is separately trained and fused for each stream at its time resolution using measurements collected under known states. We present a machine learning method to fuse the outputs of these fusers to provide a final classification at the finest time resolution. We show that this fused-fusers method provides decisions with likely superior classification probability compared to the best individual classifiers and fused-classifiers. We derive generalization equations that guarantee a superior classification probability of fused-fusers with a confidence probability specified by the classifiers’ generalization equations. We apply these results to study a practical problem of classifying Pu/Np target dissolution events at a radiochemical processing facility using gamma spectral measurements of effluent flows.

Rao, Nageswara↗

GANISP (GAN-assisted Importance SPlitting)

Genealogical importance splitting marches towards a rare event by iteratively selecting and replicating realizations that are headed towards a rare event. The replication step is made difficult when applied to deterministic systems as the initial conditions of the offspring realizations need to be adjusted. Typically, a random perturbation is applied to the offspring. For some cases, this cloning technique may not be adequate and prevent variance reduction in the probability estimate. A GAN-based replication process is proposed to address this limitation. The perturbations applied to the clones are physically consistent instead of being randomly chosen. The proposed method allows reducing the variance in the probability estimation.

Hassanaly, Malik↗

Tumor response parameters for head and neck cancer derived from tumor-volume variation during radiation therapy

Purpose: The main goal of this paper is to reconstruct a distribution of cell survival fractions from tumor-volume variation for a heterogeneous group of head and neck cancer patients and compare this distribution to the data from predictive assays. Methods: To characterize the tumor-volume variation during radiation therapy treatment, the authors use a two-level tumor-volume model of cell population that separates the entire tumor cell population into two subpopulations of viable cells and lethally damaged cells. This parameterized radiobiological model is integrated with a least squares objective function and a simulated annealing optimization algorithm to describe time-dependent tumor-volume variation rates in individual patients. Several constraints have been used in the optimization problem because tumor-volume variation during radiotherapy is described by a sum of exponentials; therefore, the problem of accurately fitting a model to measured data is ill-posed. The model was applied to measured tumor-volume variation curves from a clinical study on tumor-volume variation during radiotherapy for 14 head and neck cancer patients in which an integrated CT/linear particle accelerator (LINAC) system was used for tumor-volume measurements. Results: The two-level cell population tumor-volume modeling is capable of describing tumor-volume variation throughout the entire treatment for 11 of the 14 patients. For three patients, the tumor-volume variation was described only during the initial part of treatment, a fact that may be related to the neglected hypoxia in the two-level approximation. The predicted probability density distribution for the survival fractions agrees with the data obtained using in vitro studies with predictive assays. The mean value 0.35 of survival fraction obtained in this study is larger than the value 0.32 from in vitro studies, which could be expected because of greater repair in vivo. The mean half-life obtained in this study for the head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) is equal to 3.8 mean potential doubling times, which agrees with 4.0 mean potential doubling times obtained previously for lung SCC. Conclusions: The distribution of cell survival fractions obtained in this study support the hypothesis that the tumor-volume variation during radiotherapy treatment for head and neck cancer can be described by the two-level cell population tumor-volume model. This model can be used for in vivo evaluation of patient-specific radiobiological parameters that are needed for tumor-control probability evaluation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Surface Impedance of Superconducting Radio Frequency (SRF) Materials

Superconducting radio frequency (SRF) technology is widely adopted in particle accelerators. There remain many open questions, however, in developing a systematic understanding of the fundamental behavior of SRF materials, including niobium treated in different ways and various other bulk/thin film materials that are fabricated with different methods under assorted conditions. A facility that can measure the SRF properties of small samples in a range of 2-40 K temperature is needed in order to fully answer these questions. The Jefferson Lab surface impedance characterization (SIC) system has been designed to attempt to meet this requirement. It consists of a sapphire-loaded cylindrical Nb TE011 cavity at 7.4 GHz with a 50 mm diameter flat sample placed on a non-contacting end plate and uses a calorimetric technique to measure the radio frequency (RF) induced heat on the sample. Driving the resonance to a known field on this surface enables one to derive the surface resistance of a relatively small localized area. TEo11 mode identification has been done at room temperature and 4 K, and has been compared with Microwave Studio® and SuperFish simulation results. RF loss mechanisms in the SIC system are under investigation. A VCO phase lock loop system has been used in both CW and pulsed mode. Two calorimeters, with stainless steel and Cu as the thermal path material for high precision and high power versions, respectively, have been designed and commissioned for the SIC system to provide low temperature control and measurement. A power compensation method has been developed to measure the RF induced power on the sample. Simulation and experimental results show that with these two calorimeters, the whole thermal range of interest for SRF materials has been covered. The power measurement error in the interested power range is within 1.2% and 2.7% for the high precision and high power versions, respectively. Temperature distributions on the sample surface for both versions have been simulated and the accuracy of sample temperature measurements have been analysed. Both versions have the ability to accept bulk superconductors and thin film superconducting samples with a variety of substrate materials such as AI, Al20 3 , Cu, MgO, Nb and Si. Tests with polycrystalline and large grain bulk Nb samples have been done at <15 mT magnetic field. Based on BCS surface impedance, least-squares fittings have been done using SuperFit2.0, a code developed by G. Ciovati and the author. Microstructure analyses and SRF measurements of large scale epitaxial MgB2 films have been reported. MgB2 films on 5 em dia. sapphire disks were fabricated by a Hybrid Physical Chemical Vapor Deposition (HPCVD) technique. The electron-beam backscattering diffraction (EBSD) results suggest that the film is a single crystal complying with a MgB2(0001 )//AI203(0001) epitaxial relationship. The SRF properties of different film thicknesses (200 nm and 350 nm) were evaluated using SIC system under different temperatures and applied fields at 7.4 GHz. A surface resistance of 9±2 1-10 has been observed at 2.2 K. Based on BCS theory with moving Cooper pairs, the electron states distribution at OK and the probability of electron occupation with finite temperature have been derived and applied to anomalous skin effect theory to obtain the surface impedance of a superconductor with moving Cooper pairs. We present the numerical results for Nb.

Xiao, Binping↗

Mesh objective stochastic simulations of quasibrittle fracture

Continuum finite element (FE) modeling of damage and failure of quasibrittle structures suffers from the spurious mesh sensitivity due to strain localization. Here this issue has been addressed for deterministic analysis through the development of localization limiters. Here this study proposes a mechanism-based model to mitigate the mesh sensitivity in stochastic FE simulations of quasibrittle fracture. The interest is placed on the analysis of large-size structures, where the mesh size is conveniently chosen to be larger than the width of the fracture process zone as well as the correlation length of the random fields of constitutive properties. The present model is formulated within the framework of continuum damage mechanics. Two localization parameters are introduced to describe the evolution of the damage pattern of each finite element. These parameters are used to guide the energy regularization of the constitutive law, as well as to formulate the mesh-dependent probability distributions of constitutive properties. Depending on the prevailing damage pattern, different energy regularization schemes and mesh dependence of the probability distribution functions are used in the constitutive law. The model is applied to simulate the stochastic failure behavior of quasibrittle structures of different geometries featuring different failure processes including damage initiation, localization, and propagation. It is shown that using fixed probability distribution functions of constitutive properties could lead to strong mesh dependence of the prediction of the mean and variance of the structural load capacity. The probability distribution functions of constitutive properties must be linked to the damage pattern, which may evolve during the failure process. Such a mechanism-based modeling of the probability distributions of constitutive properties is essential for mitigating the spurious mesh sensitivity in stochastic FE analysis of quasibrittle fracture.

42 ENGINEERING↗