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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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162 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Transcriptome-wide association analysis identifies candidate susceptibility genes for prostate-specific antigen levels in men without prostate cancer

Deciphering the genetic basis of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels may improve their utility for prostate cancer (PCa) screening. Using genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics from 95,768 PCa-free men, we conducted a transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) to examine impacts of genetically predicted gene expression on PSA. Analyses identified 41 statistically significant (p < 0.05/12,192 = 4.10 × 10 –6 ) associations in whole blood and 39 statistically significant (p < 0.05/13,844 = 3.61 × 10 –6 ) associations in prostate tissue, with 18 genes associated in both tissues. Cross-tissue analyses identified 155 statistically significantly (p < 0.05/22,249 = 2.25 × 10 –6 ) genes. Out of 173 unique PSA-associated genes across analyses, we replicated 151 (87.3%) in a TWAS of 209,318 PCa-free individuals from the Million Veteran Program. Based on conditional analyses, we found 20 genes (11 single tissue, nine cross-tissue) that were associated with PSA levels in the discovery TWAS that were not attributable to a lead variant from a GWAS. Ten of these 20 genes replicated, and two of the replicated genes had colocalization probability of >0.5: CCNA2 and HIST1H2BN. Six of the 20 identified genes are not known to impact PCa risk. Fine-mapping based on whole blood and prostate tissue revealed five protein-coding genes with evidence of causal relationships with PSA levels. Of these five genes, four exhibited evidence of colocalization and one was conditionally independent of previous GWAS findings. These results yield hypotheses that should be further explored to improve understanding of genetic factors underlying PSA levels.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Computationally efficient and error aware surrogate construction for numerical solutions of subsurface flow through porous media

Limiting the injection rate to restrict the pressure below a threshold at a critical location can be an important goal of simulations that model the subsurface pressure between injection and extraction wells. The pressure is approximated by the solution of Darcy’s partial differential equation for a given permeability field. The subsurface permeability is modeled as a random field since it is known only up to statistical properties. This induces uncertainty in the computed pressure. Solving the partial differential equation for an ensemble of random permeability simulations enables estimating a probability distribution for the pressure at the critical location. These simulations are computationally expensive, and practitioners often need rapid online guidance for real-time pressure management. An ensemble of numerical partial differential equation solutions is used to construct a Gaussian process regression model that can quickly predict the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. The Gaussian process surrogate analyzes the ensemble of numerical pressure solutions at the critical location as noisy observations of the true pressure solution, enabling robust inference using the conditional Gaussian process distribution. Our first novel contribution is to identify a sampling methodology for the random environment and matching kernel technology for which fitting the Gaussian process regression model scales as O ( n log n ) instead of the typical O ( n 3 ) rate in the number of samples n used to fit the surrogate. The surrogate model allows almost instantaneous predictions for the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. Our second contribution is a novel algorithm to calibrate the uncertainty in the surrogate model to the discrepancy between the true pressure solution of Darcy’s equation and the numerical solution. Finally, although our method is derived for building a surrogate for the solution of Darcy’s equation with a random permeability field, the framework broadly applies to solutions of other partial differential equations with random coefficients.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Primordial black hole dark matter: A quantitative parameter sensitivity comparison across formation mechanisms and particle candidates

Primordial black holes (PBHs) in the asteroid-mass window ( 10 17 – 10 22 g ) can account for all of the dark matter without violating any observational constraint, yet are routinely dismissed as fine-tuned. I put that dismissal to the test by applying three complementary sensitivity measures uniformly across a broad landscape: three noninflationary PBH production mechanisms, six classes of inflationary PBH models, and seven particle dark matter benchmarks, all evaluated against the same observable target. Three distinct naturalness universality classes emerge, determined entirely by the analytic structure of the abundance map rather than by the nature of the dark matter candidate. Biased-domain-wall PBHs, in their least model-dependent (free- V b ) form, have the same low sensitivity, Δ = 4.5 , as off-resonance weakly interacting massive particles and freeze-in particles ( Δ = 2 ), a sensitivity that, because it is constant over the entire parameter space of the construction, also coincides trivially with its own Wilson-normalized average within that parameter space (Section Definition and conventions), an equivalence that concerns only the space over which Δ is computed and is not a naturalness statement about the construction as a whole; a further reduction to Δ = 2 is possible only under the additional, independently motivated but not required, assumption that the domain-wall bias is generated by Planck-suppressed operators; early matter-domination PBHs occupy an intermediate tier alongside coannihilating weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs), unified by a structural identity in which the sensitivity measure equals the logarithm of the ratio of the formation scale to the matter–radiation equality scale; first-order phase transition PBHs, once the more accurate super-exponential collapse probability is used in place of the single-exponential approximation, instead belong to the same highly sensitive tier as resonant WIMP annihilation and single-field inflationary collapse, for a structurally distinct reason; single-field ultraslow-roll inflationary collapse is severely tuned for a distinct reason: a double exponential in which the power spectrum amplitude is itself exponentially sensitive to the inflaton potential coefficients, on top of the exponential collapse sensitivity of the abundance map. My main conclusion is that the claim that PBH dark matter is generically fine-tuned conflates the worst case with a landscape spanning every naturalness tier. The Barbieri-Giudice sensitivity computed here and the Wilson-normalized measure of Iovino and Riotto answer distinct and mutually consistent questions about the same construction, a distinction I clarify within the two-layer decomposition.

Profumo, Stefano [University of California, Santa ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Hazard Assessment for Tornadoes, Straight-Line Wind, and Extreme Precipitation at the Savannah River Site

Recent data sets for three meteorological phenomena with the potential to inflict damage on SRS facilities – tornadoes, straight-line winds, and heavy precipitation – are analyzed using appropriate statistical techniques to estimate the occurrence probabilities for these events in the future. Summaries of the results for DOE-mandated return periods and comparisons to similar calculations performed in 2013 by Werth et al. (W2013) are given. Using tornado statistics for i) the combined states of Georgia and South Carolina, and ii) a 2⁰ square area surrounding SRS, we calculated the probability per year of any location at SRS being struck by a tornado (the ‘strike’ probability) and the probability that any point will experience winds above set thresholds. The strike probability was calculated to be 7.04E-4 (1 chance in 1420) per year and tornadic wind speeds for DOE mandated return periods of 50,000 years (corresponding to wind design category 3 (WDC-3), and 125,000 years (meeting WDC-4) (USDOE, 2016) were estimated to be 132 mph and 147 mph, respectively. By contrast, default tornado wind speeds taken from ANSI/ANS-2.3-2011 are somewhat higher: 161 mph for return periods of 50,000 years and 173 mph every 125,000 years (ANS, 2011). Although the ANS and the SRS evaluation used the same basic model (Ramsdell and Rishel, 2007), the region defined in ANS 2.3 that encompasses the SRS also includes areas of the Great Plains and lower Midwest, regions with much higher occurrence frequencies of strong tornadoes. The SRS straight-line wind values associated with various return periods were calculated by fitting existing wind data to a GEV1 distribution and extrapolating the values for any return period from the tail of that function. For the DOE mandated return periods, we expect straight-line winds of 117 mph every 2500 years (the required WDC-3 standard) and 125 mph every 6250 years (WDC-4) at any point within the SRS. These values are similar to those from the ANS-2.3-2011 report, which has wind speeds of 125mph and 133 mph for return periods of 2500 years and 6250 years, respectively. For extreme precipitation, we compared the fits of two different theoretical extreme-value distributions and applied the one that fit the data best for each of several accumulation periods. The DOE mandated 6-hr accumulated rainfall for return periods of 10,000 years (corresponding to precipitation design category 3 (PDC-3) and 25,000 years (PDC-4) were estimated as 9.1 inches and 10.1 inches, respectively. For the 24-hr rainfall return periods of 10,000 years and 25,000 years, total rainfall estimates were 12.02 inches and 13.17 inches, respectively, higher than comparable values provided in the W2013 report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Next-generation neutron detection using a 6 Li glass scintillator composite

Neutron detectors are crucial in fundamental science, nuclear security, safeguards, and civil applications. 3 He-filled gas proportional counters are the gold standard for thermal neutron detection, prized for their efficiency, neutron/gamma discrimination, and stability; however, the scarcity of 3 He has prompted the search for alternatives. Here, we introduce a neutron detector design based on a scintillating composite consisting of 6 Li glass scintillator particles dispersed in an organic matrix. A detector consisting of this scintillating composite, photomultiplier tubes (PMTs) for optical detection, and electronics for reading out the PMT signal in both pulse and current modes was prototyped and characterized using various neutron and gamma sources. The prototype achieves a measured intrinsic detection efficiency of 6.70 ± 0.01%, a die-away time of 10.3 ± 0.1 μs, a negligible gamma misidentification probability, and response linearity up to at least 3.7 × 10 6 incident neutrons/s established via a cross-calibration technique. This detector holds the potential to outperform traditional 3 He-gas-based neutron detection systems, offering a viable alternative amidst the ongoing 3 He shortage and promising advancements in neutron detection technology.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task A Final Report

Task A, also known as HGFrac, examines the fracturing processes that may occur in the Callovo-Oxfordian claystone (COx) in the context of the high-level (HLW) and intermediate-level long-lived (ILW-LL) radioactive waste repository in France. Understanding these processes and improving numerical models to reproduce them will aid in the design, optimization, and safety of the repository. Heat and gas fracturing are studied in two independent subtasks following a stepwise approach: laboratory tests/benchmark exercises, in-situ experiment, and finally, an application case. The in-situ heater experiment aimed to thermally induce a hydraulic fracture; temperature and pore pressure were monitored to detect any evidence of fracturing. The in-situ gas injection experiment aimed to study the effect of the stress orientation and gas injection kinetics on the gas fracturing process. The occurrence of fracturing was monitored by gas pressure measured in the injection interval. In both experiments, the excavation-induced fracture network around the heater/injection boreholes played an important role in the reduction of the compressive stress state, leading to both a tensile and shear failure response of the COx. During the first two years of the project, the research teams working on each task developed and/or proposed numerical approaches for reproducing the occurrence of fracturing in the in-situ experiments. The failure criteria were defined by reproducing the measurements from laboratory extension tests for the heat fracturing subtask. In the gas fracturing subtask, their approaches were used for simulating several benchmark exercises, and an inter-comparison between models was carried out. In both tasks, the developed approaches were compared with a simplified approach considering poro-elasticity for the mechanical behaviour of the COx. Most of the developed approaches are based on a continuous medium that takes into account variations in hydraulic properties due to mechanical degradation, such as plastic deformation or damage. Other approaches implicitly modelled weak planes or embedded discontinuities to reproduce fracture propagation. The potential for fracture initiation was also studied through of a discrete approach. In the second half of the project, the research teams mainly focused on interpretative modelling of two in-situ experiments and a blind prediction exercise to test their respective approaches. The models developed by the research teams were also applied at the repository scale to evaluate fracture initiation in a case study under vi unfavourable conditions, particularly in terms of spacing between High-Level Waste cells. The results showed that the poro-elasticity approach could be an efficient tool for understanding the main processes occurring in the COx. One example is the explicit representation of the excavation-induced fracture network around the boreholes, which yielded acceptable results compared to the measurement data. However, advanced approaches were needed to evaluate the potential increase of the excavation-induced fracture network extend and better understand fracture initiation. The stress analyses carried out by the teams revealed that hydraulic boundary conditions had a strong impact on fracture initiation in the heater experiment. Furthermore, in most cases, the results required higher pore pressure increments to reach fracturing than those measured in the experiment. This implies that the measurements may have been biased by the packer’s capacity to fully isolate the piezometric chambers, leading to lower pressures. On the contrary, there was no agreement on the fracturing mode, as some reported either shear or tensile fracturing, while others reported a combination of the two modes. In the case of gas fracturing, the research teams were limited to the comparison of a single point, which complicated their task. Nonetheless, the numerical results were able to reproduce the measurements and capture processes such as longitudinal gas flow through the excavation-induced fracture network, as suggested by some evidence in the observation piezometric chambers. The numerical models also agreed with the measurements in the sense of higher probability of developing along the injection borehole than radially towards the sound rock. The approaches developed by the research teams showed that they are capable of analysing and reproducing fracture initiation in the COx. However, areas of future work should focus on the fracture propagation and fracture aperture, which were out of the scope of this task. To this end, additional data must be gathered for the parameter characterisation and validation of the numerical models. Nonetheless, various approaches showed promising results as they were able to reproduce fracture development under certain conditions.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Root cause analysis of a molten salt pump in FLUSTFA

The primary salt pump installed in the high-temperature FLUoride Salt Test Facility (FLUSTFA) was successfully operated for some time, but later ceased operation. To understand what occurred, a Root Cause Analysis (RCA) was performed. Steps taken to try to get the pump operational include adjusting the shaft position, increasing the heating power of the tape heaters on the pump volute, and manually rotating the pump shaft. While removing the insulation, corrosion was noted on the outside of the pump volute, and decolorization of the insulation and tape heaters was observed. Significant corrosion products were also observed in the pump itself and the piping connected to the pump. The nitrogen cover gas was maintained from before salt was introduced into the loop until the pump was dismounted and continues to be maintained even after the pump was removed. After considering probable scenarios, causes were assigned and corrective actions were developed to prevent those causes. Then, the RCA was presented to an advisory committee for review, the “Review Committee,” consisting of experts in large molten salt systems: Brandon Haugh, David Holcomb, Kevin Robb, and Vicente Rojas. As a result, the advisory committee provided comprehensive feedback, which have been incorporated into a revised RCA. Findings have then been summarized and reported in this publication.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Review of Particle Physics

The Review summarizes much of particle physics and cosmology. Using data from previous editions, plus 3,200 new measurements from 903 papers, we list, evaluate, and average measured properties of gauge bosons and the recently discovered Higgs boson, leptons, quarks, mesons, and baryons. We summarize searches for hypothetical particles such as supersymmetric particles, heavy bosons, axions, dark photons, etc. Particle properties and search limits are listed in Summary Tables. We give numerous tables, figures, formulae, and reviews of topics such as Higgs Boson Physics, Supersymmetry, Grand Unified Theories, Neutrino Mixing, Dark Energy, Dark Matter, Cosmology, Particle Detectors, Colliders, Probability and Statistics. Most of the 118 reviews are updated, including many that are heavily revised.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Combining Machine Learning and Comparative Effectiveness Methodology to Study Primary Care Pharmacotherapy Pathways for Veterans With Depression

Our objective is to demonstrate an innovative method combining machine learning with comparative effectiveness research techniques and to investigate a hitherto unstudied question about the effectiveness of common prescribing patterns. For Operation Enduring Freedom/Operation Iraqi Freedom veterans with major depressive disorder, we generate pharmacotherapy pathways (of antidepressants) using process mining and machine learning. We select the medication episodes that were started at subtherapeutic doses by the first assigned primary care physician and observe the paths that those medication episodes follow. Using 2-stage least squares, we test the effectiveness of starting at a low dose and staying low for longer versus ramping up fast while balancing observable and unobservable characteristics of patients and providers through instrumental variables. We leverage predetermined provider practice patterns as instruments. We collected outpatient pharmacy data for selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and selective norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors, patient and provider characteristics (as control variables), and the instruments for our cohort. All data were extracted for the period between 2006 and 2020. There is a statistically significant positive effect (0.68, 95% CI 0.11–1.25) of “ramping up fast” on engagement in care. When we examine the effect of “ramping up slow”, we see an insignificant negative impact on engagement in care (−0.82, 95% CI −1.89 to 0.25). As expected, the probability of drop-out also seems to have a negative effect on engagement in care (−0.39, 95% CI −0.94 to 0.17). We further validate these results by testing with medication possession ratios calculated periodically as an alternative engagement in care metric. Our findings contradict the “Start low, go slow” adage, indicating that ramping up the dose of an antidepressant faster has a significantly positive effect on engagement in care for our population.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement report: A comparison of ground-level ice-nucleating-particle abundance and aerosol properties during autumn at contrasting marine and terrestrial locations

Abstract. Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) are an essential class of aerosols found worldwide that have far-reaching but poorly quantified climate feedback mechanisms through interaction with clouds and impacts on precipitation. These particles can have highly variable physicochemical properties in the atmosphere, and it is crucial to continuously monitor their long-term concentration relative to total ambient aerosol populations at a wide variety of sites to comprehensively understand aerosol–cloud interactions in the atmosphere. Hence, our study applied an in situ forced expansion cooling device to measure ambient INP concentrations and test its automated continuous measurements at atmospheric observatories, where complementary aerosol instruments are heavily equipped. Using collocated aerosol size, number, and composition measurements from these sites, we analyzed the correlation between sources and abundance of INPs in different environments. Toward this aim, we have measured ground-level INP concentrations at two contrasting sites, one in the Southern Great Plains (SGP) region of the United States with a substantial terrestrially influenced aerosol population and one in the Eastern North Atlantic Ocean (ENA) region with a primarily marine-influenced aerosol population. These measurements examined INPs mainly formed through immersion freezing and were performed at a ≤ 12 min resolution and with a wide range of heterogeneous freezing temperatures (Ts above −31 °C) for at least 45 d at each site. The associated INP data analysis was conducted in a consistent manner. We also explored the additional offline characterization of ambient aerosol particle samples from both locations in comparison to in situ data. From our ENA data, on average, INP abundance ranges from ≈ 1 to ≈ 20 L−1 (−30 °C ≤ T ≤ −20 °C) during October–November 2020. Backward air mass trajectories reveal a strong marine influence at ENA with 75.7 % of air masses originating over the Atlantic Ocean and 96.6 % of air masses traveling over open water, but analysis of particle chemistry suggests an additional INP source besides maritime aerosols (e.g., sea spray aerosols) at ENA. In contrast, 90.8 % of air masses at the SGP location originated from the North American continent, and 96.1 % of the time, these air masses traveled over land. As a result, organic-rich SGP aerosols from terrestrial sources exhibited notably high INP abundance from ≈ 1 to ≈ 100 L−1 (−30 °C ≤ T ≤ −15 °C) during October–November 2019. The probability density function of aerosol surface area-scaled immersion freezing efficiency (ice nucleation active surface site density; ns) was assessed for selected freezing temperatures. While the INP concentrations measured at SGP are higher than those of ENA, the ns(T) values of SGP (≈ 105 to ≈ 107 m−2 for −30 °C ≤ T ≤ −15 °C) are reciprocally lower than ENA for approximately 2 orders of magnitude (≈ 107 to ≈ 109 m−2 for −30 °C ≤ T ≤ −15 °C). The observed difference in ns(T) mainly stems from varied available aerosol surface areas, Saer, from two sites (Saer,SGP > Saer,ENA). INP parameterizations were developed as a function of examined freezing temperatures from SGP and ENA for our study periods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantitative Risk Assessment for Fuel Cell Electric Bus Hydrogen Storage and Refueling Facility

It is necessary to understand the safety implications and risk mitigation options for fuel cell electric bus fleet deployment, especially for related facilities responsible for operations such as production, storage, compression, and dispensing of hydrogen for use by the buses. In this report, we present a quantitative risk assessment for a potential fuel cell electric bus fleet that was motivated by efforts to improve resilience at the Portland International Airport but can be applicable to a range of hydrogen case studies and use cases. We estimated risk for a facility that produces, stores, compresses, and dispenses hydrogen for the fleet of buses, with a focus on individual risk to people in terms of annual frequency of fatality. We considered the frequency of hydrogen leaks that could result in harmful physical outcomes like jet fires or explosions, and the consequences of those outcomes for people. We created customized fault trees to calculate the frequencies of different sizes of leaks and event sequence diagrams to calculate ignition probabilities for the various leak sizes. We also leveraged the HyRAM+ toolkit to use these inputs to calculate overall risk for the facility, which we separated into one section responsible for producing, storing, and compressing hydrogen, and one section responsible for dispensing the hydrogen to the buses. We found that the dispensing area seemed to have a higher risk than the production/storage/compression area of the facility, largely because of the inclusion of a component with a high leak frequency (the heat exchanger used to cool the hydrogen before entering the vehicle, to prevent overheating and expansion of hydrogen in the onboard tank). For the example production and refueling facility we evaluated and the data we used for the analysis, the leak frequency had a larger impact on the risk differences between the two sections on the facility, compared to the physical outcome consequence, which was slightly different due to the varying fuel conditions, but not substantially different. Actions can be taken to prevent these hazards (e.g., lowering leak frequencies in system components) or to mitigate the consequences if they do occur (e.g., installing barriers to protect people if ignition events occur). The choice of which actions to take depends not only on safety considerations but also on space, time, staffing, feasibility, and financial constraints. Therefore, the quantitative risk assessment approach can help understand relative risk contributions from different components, leak sizes, consequences, and human actions, to prioritize risk reduction strategies and balance these parameters. The outcomes of this report may be useful for a variety of stakeholders working in the hydrogen, transportation, vehicle, and aviation sector, including those responsible for aspects like facility design, operations, and regulations. There is not a single value of risk that determines whether a hypothetical system is “safe” or not. The insights about risk mitigations may be leveraged, and the quantitative risk assessment approach can be applied to other case studies to understand risk priorities and contributions specific to different FCEB and hydrogen facility uses.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Proceedings for the Workshop on Applied Nuclear Data Activities 2024

The Workshop for Applied Nuclear Data Activities (WANDA) is designed to increase communication among nuclear data (ND) users in multidisciplinary federal programs, ND producers, ND funders, and other ND experts. It also presents an opportunity to cross-pollinate ideas as well as introduce ND gaps identified by federal programs to ND experts and ND capabilities to the various federal ND users. WANDA 2024 included five technical sessions, three of which focused on Fusion Energy Sciences (FES)—FES Fusion Neutronics, FES Tritium Production, and FES Material Damage—and two stand-alone sessions—Isotopes and Targetry for Nuclear Data and Uncertainty Quantification. The FES sessions successfully brought new voices to the WANDA discussions, expanding the application space in which nuclear data are critical. FES programs need accurate nuclear data with realistic uncertainty quantification to properly estimate, for example, shielding, activation, tritium production, helium production, structural material integrity, and superconducting magnet operation. This includes a variety of projectile (neutrons, photons, charged particles) and target atoms. One of the action items common to all the FES sessions was a need to perform sensitivity studies to identify the prioritization of nuclear data needs. The Isotopes and Targetry session highlighted the many capabilities available to produce high-quality targets for nuclear data measurements, including 3D printing with spherical powders, combustion synthesis coupled with spin coating & electrospraying, inkjet printing, and isotopic doping. These new methods open doors for more accurate measurement, but it was also stressed that sample characterization following any method of fabrication is of the highest importance to accurately interpret nuclear data measurement results that used that sample. The Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) session was broken into two categories: nuclear data uncertainty quantification and the use of that uncertainty quantification. Thematic to the UQ session was the loss of information when going from nuclear data measurement, to evaluation, to evaluated file, and finally to neutron transport calculations. Current evaluated ND libraries typically only contain covariances, which assume that the probability distributions are Gaussian. Beyond being a simplified assumption for many evaluations, this can lead to negative values on many observables when attempting to sample the covariance. The covariance format, however, is very efficient in that a simple set of linear equations can transform uncertainty from parameters or cross sections to the application of interest. Focused collaboration is needed between nuclear data evaluators and nuclear data users to ensure that needs are being met.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Genetic Basis of Wild Boar ( Sus scrofa ) and Its Connection to Classical Swine Fever Spread

Classical swine fever (CSF) is the one of the most devastating contagious diseases in domestic swine and wild boar/pigs (Sus scrofa). Population genetics is often used to estimate animal dispersal and can also help evaluate host population connectivity, which is crucial for understanding pathogen dispersal. We surveyed genetic population structure of boars using MIG-seq analysis to clarify the geographic barriers that influence boar dispersal in north-central Japan and to demonstrate the relationship between the spread of CSF infection among boars and their population structure. We obtained 382 single-nucleotide polymorphisms from 348 wild boar samples, and the results of STRUCTURE analysis indicated that the highest ΔK value was at K = 2, followed by K = 4. Based on these results, it is evident that the Abukuma river, a major river within north-central Japan, does not act as a barrier to the gene flow of boars, but rather that human infrastructure hinders their dispersal. Further, according to the time series change in the capture site of CSF-infected wild boar and the sum of the probability of belonging to each of the four clades in individual CSF-infected wild boar, our results indicated that the genetic structure of boar populations was correlated with the outbreak pathway of CSF across our study region. Our study suggests that predictions of disease spread, especially for widely distributed host species, is challenging because of the risk of cryptic breaks and changes in wide range connectivity; however, understanding the genetic population structure of wild boar can be a useful tool for predicting the spread of CSF. We concluded that genetic analysis of host population structure may have the possibility to improve predictions of the future dynamics of disease spread.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A More La Niña–Like Response to Radiative Forcing after Flux Adjustment in CESM2

Abstract In response to greenhouse gas forcing, most coupled global climate models project the tropical Pacific SST trend toward an “El Niño–like” state, with a reduced zonal SST gradient and a weakened Walker circulation. However, observations over the last five decades reveal a trend toward a more “La Niña–like” state with a strengthening zonal SST gradient. Recent research indicates that the identified trend differences are unlikely to be entirely due to internal variability and probably result, at least in part, from systematic model biases. In this study, Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), is used to explore how mean-state biases within the model may influence its forced response to radiative forcing in the tropical Pacific. The results show that using flux adjustment to reduce the mean-state bias in CESM2 over the tropical regions results in a more La Niña–like trend pattern in the tropical Pacific, with a strengthening of the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient and a relatively enhanced Walker circulation, as hypothesized to occur if the ocean thermostat mechanism is stronger than the atmospheric mechanisms which by themselves would weaken the Walker circulation. We also find that the historical strengthening of the tropical Pacific zonal gradient is transient but persists into the near term in a high-emissions future warming scenario. These results suggest the potential of flux adjustment as a method for developing alternative projections that represent a wider range of possible future tropical Pacific warming scenarios, especially for a better understanding of regional patterns of climate risk in the near term.

Zhuo, Jing-Yi [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, C↗
DOE OSTI2025

A continuous calibration of the ATLAS flavour-tagging classifiers via optimal transportation maps

A calibration of the ATLAS flavour-tagging algorithms using a new calibration procedure based on optimal transportation maps is presented. Simultaneous, continuous corrections to the b-jet, c-jet, and light-flavour jet classification probabilities from jet-tagging algorithms in simulation are derived for b-jets using $t\bar{t} \rightarrow e\mu \nu \nu bb$ data. After application of the derived calibration maps, closure between simulation and observation is achieved for jet flavour observables used in ATLAS analyses of Large Hadron Collider (LHC) Run 2 proton-proton collision data. This continuous calibration opens up new possibilities for the future use of jet flavour information in LHC analyses and also serves as a guide for deriving high-dimensional corrections to simulation via transportation maps, an important development for a broad range of inference tasks.

Aad, G. [Aix-Marseille Université] (ORCID:00000002↗
DOE OSTI2026

Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4

Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR 4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at ~3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar impact in December 2032 then rose, reaching ~4% by the end of the apparition in May 2025. James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations on 2025-03-26 estimated the asteroid’s diameter at 60 ± 7 m. Studies of 2024 YR 4 ’s potential lunar impact effects suggest lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft. In this work, we present options for space missions to 2024 YR 4 that could be utilized if lunar impact is confirmed. Here, we cover flyby & rendezvous reconnaissance, deflection, and robust disruption of the asteroid. We examine both rapid-response and delayed launch options through 2032. We evaluate chemical and solar electric propulsion, various launch vehicles, optimized deep space maneuvers, and gravity assists. Re-tasking extant spacecraft and using built spacecraft not yet launched are also considered. The best reconnaissance mission options launch in late 2028, leaving only approximately three years for development at the time of this writing in August 2025. Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical. However, kinetic robust disruption missions are available with launches between April 2030 and April 2032. Nuclear robust disruption missions are also available with launches between late 2029 and late 2031. Finally, even if lunar impact is ruled out there is significant potential utility in deploying a reconnaissance mission to characterize the asteroid.

Asteroid deflection↗
DOE OSTI2025

First Measurement of the Neutron-Emission Probability with a Surrogate Reaction in Inverse Kinematics at a Heavy-Ion Storage Ring

Neutron-induced reaction cross sections of short-lived nuclei are imperative to understand the origin of heavy elements in stellar nucleosynthesis and for societal applications, but their measurement is extremely complicated due to the radioactivity of the targets involved. One way of overcoming this issue is to combine surrogate reactions with the unique possibilities offered by heavy-ion storage rings. In this work, we describe the first surrogate-reaction experiment in inverse kinematics, which we successfully conducted at the Experimental Storage Ring (ESR) of the GSI/FAIR facility, using the 208 Pb⁢(p,p') reaction as a surrogate for neutron capture on 207 Pb. Thanks to the outstanding detection efficiencies possible at the ESR, we were able to measure for the first time the neutron-emission probability as a function of the excitation energy of 208 Pb. We have used this probability to select different descriptions of the γ -ray strength function and nuclear level density, and provide reliable results for the neutron-induced radiative capture cross section of 207 Pb at energies for which no experimental data exist.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Diagnostics: Chapter 8 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

This chapter presents the activity conducted by the ITPA topical group (TG) on Diagnostics over about the last 15 years. Following a general introduction of the ITER Diagnostics led by their measurement roles, the document is organized in several subchapters detailing the design support, research and development activity conducted by each of the specialist working groups (WGs) of the TG. Please note that the magnetic diagnostics were supported at the TG without a specific WG. Their status is included in the general introduction. In the following some highlights of the subchapter’s contents are provided. Recent advances in ITER first wall (FW) diagnostics for the measurements of plasma-metallic wall interaction in support of the ITER research plan are reported. An InfraRed imaging Video Bolometer for ITER has been developed and tested on several tokamaks to measure the radiated power loss. A laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technique which utilizes a pulsed laser beam to ablate locally by forming a crater, will measure local tritium inventory in the FW material. Real-time Residual Gas Analyzers will measure the neutral gas composition in a divertor port and an equatorial port during plasma operation. Due to the full metallic FW environment, the plasma-wall interaction in ITER will face several challenges such as the compromised radiated power and divertor heat flux measurements by reflection. Ray tracing and analysis codes have been developed to eliminate and correct the effects of reflection in the measurements. The characteristics of the reflecting surfaces depending on the roughness and angle of the incidence have been measured by dedicated experiments, and the results were applied to the reflection elimination. For the measurement of the metallic impurity radiation induced by eroded metallic atoms, a vacuum ultraviolet spectrometer has been developed and tested. An extensive thermonuclear diagnostic suite will be required to support the operation of ITER and the planned experimental program for future burning plasma experiments. Due to the harsh environmental conditions, the implementation of diagnostic systems in ITER is a major challenge. These conditions include high levels of neutron and gamma fluxes, neutron heating, particle bombardment. Therefore, the selection and design of diagnostic systems must take into account a number of phenomena previously unseen in diagnostic design. For this reason, the measurement of neutrons and confined or lost fast ions, with particular emphasis on alpha particles, is critical to ITER. The diagnostics associated with these measurements will be important for future plasma-burning experiments at ITER. The high neutron emission and very large plasma size in ITER make neutron diagnostics the main diagnostic method used to measure plasma parameters such as fusion power, fusion power density, ion temperature, energy of fast ions and their spatial distributions in the plasma core. Active spectroscopy techniques are methods where a neutral particle beam is injected into the plasma and information on plasma parameters is extracted from the measurement of line emission resulting from the beam-plasma interaction, either by plasma ions or by beam atoms. Spatial localization is achieved by crossing the beamline and multiple observation lines. The ITER plasma will be a high temperature, moderately dense, fully ionized collisional plasma. The plasma facing surfaces are principally metallic being fashioned from beryllium or tungsten but many other elements, arising from either structural or from operational needs, may enter this plasma. The energy range of the emitted photons range from meV (infra-red) to multi keV (x-rays) and originate from all areas of the plasma volume. The primary role of passive emission diagnostics is to identify what is in the plasma from spectral signatures. Extracting quantitative information from these measurements such as impurity content, ion temperature, rotation, degree of detachment and radiated power depends on calibrated instruments, a physics model of the atomic and molecular processes and plasma transport and an analysis workflow that takes into account environmental effects such as reflections. The particular needs for ITER have prompted a multi-machine, many-year effort to address all these aspects and this chapter reviews the work on diagnostic design, experiments and new analysis techniques. An overview of the laser diagnostics to be implemented on ITER is also provided in this paper. This includes descriptions of the Thomson scattering in the core, edge and divertor regions, polarimetry and interferometry diagnostics used for measuring plasma density and also measurements of helium density in the divertor using Laser Induced Flourescence. Techniques which can allow improvements on current measurements are also addressed in particular expanding poloidal polarimetry measurements to measure field fluctuations and proposed use of dispersion interferometery which has a number of advantages over existing methods. This paper identifies particular areas where further research and testing on existing tokamaks is useful even at this advanced stage to inform the design of diagnostics for ITER. Outstanding areas of concern for the implementation of laser diagnostics, in particular with a view to reliable operation are identified. An overview of the latest developments of microwave diagnostic systems and techniques is given. The primary focus is the contributions for ITER—the next step burning plasma experiment—which is supplemented by describing recent progress of techniques applicable for fusion experiments beyond ITER. The contributions are intentionally kept concise, and are being supplemented by a rich list of references for further studies. Radiation induced effects are receiving continuous and well-deserved attention of the ITER diagnostic community and they are in many cases one of the primary design drivers of the ITER diagnostic systems. The paper summarizes recent progress in this area focusing primarily on the ITER diagnostics but in some cases provides also outlook for the possible solutions for even more demanding radiation environment of fusion reactors beyond ITER. Despite advancements in the area of modeling and simulation of various radiation induced effects, experimental testing in a nuclear environment as close as possible to the target one is still seen as unavoidable for proper qualification of particular diagnostic functional elements. Recent advancement within three diagnostic areas: optical diagnostics, magnetics and bolometers is covered. Encouraging results on qualification of silica glass vacuum window assemblies are presented. In the area of magnetic sensors, progress of irradiation tests performed on ITER in-vessel LTCC inductive sensors is presented with outlook for novel technological approaches to inductive sensors utilizing thick printing and photolithography technologies being highlighted. Summary of advancements in the area of steady state magnetic field sensors based on Hall effect is given. New results of neutron irradiation test of the ITER borosilicate glass inserts for vacuum electrical feedthroughs are summarized finding negligible swelling at target level of neutron fluence. Off-line irradiation tests of fiber optic current sensors for plasma current measurement demonstrated that both for gamma doses up to 5 MGy and a total neutron fluence up to 10 15 cm −2 , radiation induced changes are still compatible with required measurement accuracy on ITER. The ITER bolometers are given as an example how considering radiation effects may influence the diagnostic design. Finally, outlook for future main R&D directions is outlined. All optical and laser-based diagnostics in ITER will be using mirrors to guide plasma radiation toward detectors, cameras and sensors. In the hostile plasma, radiation and particle environment the optical characteristics of diagnostic mirrors will degrade directly affecting the entire performance of involved diagnostic systems. An assessment of factors affecting mirror performance is provided. Among the prime adverse factors are deposition of plasma impurities, sputtering of mirror surface and steam ingress in the vicinity of mirrors. Within the International Tokamak Physics Activity with active support by ITER central team and domestic agencies, the structured research and development (R&D) program on mitigation of risks for diagnostic mirrors is underway. Within this program the mirror material development, the passive mitigation of mirror degradation by using diagnostic ducts and shutters along with an active mirror recovery program comprising the in-situ mirror cleaning and calibration is underway. Recent developments in diagnostic mirror R&D are described in this Chapter along with an example of their implementation of R&D solutions in ITER Infrared Thermography diagnostic. An assessment of still open engineering and physics questions, considerations on mirror risks during an early phase of ITER operation are given along with an overview of diagnostic mirror evolution in the late ITER operation stage toward the demonstration fusion power plant. Several crucial areas of diagnostic R&D outlined in ITER Research Plan are addressed. The basic control groups in a fusion reactor can be broken-down in five categories: (1) plasma position, magnetic configuration, and plasma current control, (2) profile control and confinement optimization, (3) MHD control and suppression, (4) edge dissipation control, radiation and plasma exhaust control and (5) break-down optimization. These categories are coupled via the physics (a control action in one domain will affect the other domains) and via shared actuators (e.g. ECRH for impurity accumulation avoidance, current density distribution control and MHD suppression). Consequently, a supervisory control system should determine the priority of the various control tasks, their couplings, and the interfaces with the safety and interlock system. For the systematic development of the various controllers taking the complexity of the plasma and the control system into account, a model-based approach is required. A short historical overview is given of the developments in systems and control theory and control engineering with special emphasis on those developments that are most relevant for Nuclear Fusion research and operation. An overview is given of the state of the field of fusion plasma control for the control categories. It will be shown how synthetic diagnostics are being developed in ITER and how they are used in diagnostic design and design validation and how they can be in model-based controller synthesis using relatively simple models. In modern control methods, multiple diagnostics are used to constrain relatively simple models. The constrained models provide an estimate for the state. This opens the route to state controllers, such as model predictive control. A major challenge in nuclear fusion research is the coherent combination of data from heterogeneous diagnostics and modeling codes for machine control and safety as well as physics studies. Measured data from different diagnostics often provide information about the same subset of physical parameters. Additionally, information provided by some diagnostics might be needed for the analysis of other diagnostics. A joint analysis of complementary and redundant data allows, e.g. to improve the reliability of parameter estimation, to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of profiles, to obtain synergistic effects, to consider diagnostics interdependencies and to find and resolve data inconsistencies. Physics-based modeling and parameter relationships provide additional information improving the treatment of ill-posed inversion problems. A coherent combination of all kind of available information within a probabilistic framework allows for improved data analysis results. The concept of integrated data analysis (IDA) in the framework of Bayesian probability theory is outlined and contrasted with conventional data analysis. Components of the probabilistic approach are summarized and specific ingredients beneficial for data analysis at fusion devices are discussed.

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