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At least 163 records · Page 9

Savannah River Site Climatology for Research Activities Conducted Onsite and in P-Area (1994-2023)

Executive Summary This report presents a climatology of meteorological variables at the Savannah River Site (SRS) using measurements from the P-Area and Central Climatology meteorological towers to support research activities at the Savannah River Site. Key values included in this report are wind, surface pressure, temperature, relative humidity, soil moisture, cloud fraction, cloud base, lightning, atmospheric stability, and boundary layer parameters. The Central Climatology tower is useful in that it is instrumented at four levels, allowing for an examination of height dependence on some variables.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Calibration and characterization of the line-VISAR diagnostic at the HED-HIBEF instrument at the European XFEL

In dynamic-compression experiments, the line-imaging Velocity Interferometer System for Any Reflector (VISAR) is a well-established diagnostic used to probe the velocity history, including wave profiles derived from dynamically compressed interfaces and wavefronts, depending on material optical properties. Knowledge of the velocity history allows for the determination of the pressure achieved during compression. Such a VISAR analysis is often based on Fourier transform techniques and assumes that the recorded interferograms are free from image distortions. In this paper, we describe the VISAR diagnostic installed at the HED-HIBEF instrument located at the European XFEL along with its calibration and characterization. It comprises a two-color (532, 1064 nm), three-arm (with three velocity sensitivities) line imaging system. We provide a procedure to correct VISAR images for geometric distortions and evaluate the performance of the system using Fourier analysis. We finally discuss the spatial and temporal calibrations of the diagnostic. As an example, we compare the pressure extracted from the VISAR analysis of shock-compressed polyimide and silicon.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Nonlinearity of the post-spinel transition and its expression in slabs and plumes worldwide

Phase transitions in the mantle control its internal dynamics and structure. The post-spinel transition marks the upper–lower mantle boundary, where ringwoodite dissociates into bridgmanite plus ferropericlase, and its Clapeyron slope regulates mantle flow across it. This interaction has previously been assumed to have no lateral spatial variations, based on the assumption of a linear post-spinel boundary in pressure and temperature. Here we present laser-heated diamond anvil cell experiments with synchrotron X-ray diffraction to better constrain this boundary, especially at higher temperatures. Combining our data with results from the literature, and using a global analysis based on machine learning, we find a pronounced nonlinearity in the post-spinel boundary, with its slope ranging from –4 MPa/K at 2100 K, to –2 MPa/K at 1950 K, and to 0 MPa/K at 1600 K. Changes in temperature over time and space can therefore cause the post-spinel transition to have variable effects on mantle convection and the movement of subducting slabs and upwelling plumes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hydrophobic Metal–Organic Frameworks Enable Superior High-Pressure Ammonia Storage through Geometric Design

Hydrophobic metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) are typically overlooked for ammonia storage due to weak host–guest interactions. Here, we demonstrate that four structurally analogous aluminum-based MOFs exhibit a counterintuitive behavior whereby framework geometry, rather than ligand hydrophilicity, determines high-pressure NH 3 adsorption performance. The hydrophobic CAU-23 achieved an exceptional capacity matching hydrophilic analogs despite its poor low-pressure uptake. This pressure-dependent enhancement stems from the unique 4-cis-4-trans geometry of CAU-23 compared to the purely cis arrangement of MIL-160 and KMF-1 and the alternating cis-trans configuration of MOF-303. Critically, CAU-23 retained 95% capacity over three high-pressure cycles, whereas hydrophilic MOFs suffered 39–46% irreversible losses due to strong NH 3 -framework interactions that compromise structural integrity. Grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations reveal that high pressure enables NH 3 clustering through intermolecular hydrogen bonding, bypassing the need for strong host–guest interactions. High-pressure powder X-ray diffraction measurements confirm the exceptional mechanical resilience of CAU-23, showing complete structural recovery upon decompression despite exhibiting the highest pressure sensitivity among the studied MOFs. An extended analog, HE-CAU-23, validates this design principle with further enhanced capacity. Furthermore, these findings reveal a paradigm shift toward hydrophobic MOFs with optimized geometry for high-performance and regenerable gas storage applications.

MOFs↗

CFD modeling of near-wall combustion and unburned methane prediction in natural gas spark ignition engines

Natural gas-powered engines play a critical role in gas drilling, compression, and transmission sectors, but methane (CH 4 ) from engine combustion slip can be significant over their lifespan, contributing to atmospheric pollution and signaling reduced engine efficiency. Here, to address this challenge, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations offer valuable insights into the in-cylinder combustion process, enabling the optimization of combustion strategies and engine designs to minimize unburned CH 4 slip. This study aims to evaluate and improve combustion models for simulating the combustion process and predicting unburned CH 4 concentrations in natural gas spark-ignition (SI) engines, including engines that are part of combined reformer-engine systems. Specifically, the performance of two flamelet-based combustion models—the Extended Coherent Flame Model (ECFM) and the G-equation model—was assessed using experimental engine data collected under varying excess-air ratio (λ) conditions and fuel compositions, including natural gas and syngas blends. In addition, to enhance the predictive capabilities of the G-equation model, a flame-wall interaction (FWI) sub-model was integrated into its framework. The effects of its model parameters, such as quenching and influence distance, on combustion behavior and unburned methane predictions were analyzed in detail. The ECFM tended to predict delayed combustion phasing under diluted mixture conditions, resulting in overprediction of unburned CH 4 concentrations. In contrast, the G-equation model provided reasonable predictions of combustion pressure, while representing higher the CH 4 reduction rate across the operating condition compared to experimental data. Incorporating the FWI sub-model—with the quenching distance calculated based on a pressure-dependent relation (P -0.48 ) and a fixed influence distance of 1.5 mm—further improved the G-equation model’s accuracy in predicting CH 4 reduction rates without compromising its ability to simulate the combustion process.

Combustion model↗

In situ effective pumping speed measurements as a tool for non-evaporable getter activation and saturation monitoring

We have developed method of in situ effective pumping speed measurements based on injecting finite gas pulse into a vacuum volume and subsequent recording of pressure response using a Residual Gas Analyzer (RGA). The pressure burst caused by injected gas pulse falls exponentially in time and the exponential coefficient of such pressure decay is proportional to total effective pumping speed of all vacuum pumps acting on vacuum chamber volume. The effective pumping speed can be extracted from the dependence of injected gas species pressure vs time recorded by an RGA. Non-Evaporable Getters (NEGs) are widely used in multiple ultra and extremely high vacuum devices and applications during the last several decades. Areas of NEG applications were recently expanded into vacuum devices with relatively high-pressure levels (up to 10 -7 Torr) by the invention of high capacity ZAO NEG which can be operated at elevated temperatures. The intrinsic property of all NEG-based vacuum pumps is the reduction of their pumping speed, called “NEG saturation”, after an extended period of operation. Typical time interval for such process can span from about a month and up to a few years depending on NEG type, vacuum level of NEG pump operation, and residual gas content. After that, the NEG pump will require a re-activation cycle to restore its pumping speed close to the initial value. For many applications it is difficult to realize what is the current pumping speed of NEG pump is and when the pump should be re-activated. A method for in situ effective pumping speed measurements developed in this study can be used as a tool for NEG-based pump activation and saturation monitoring. Application of such an approach to monitor pumping status of NEG pumps was utilized and will be continually used at Extended EBIS which was recently developed and commissioned for Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) and future Electron Ion Collider (EIC). The results obtained during commissioning are presented and discussed.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Direct prediction of saturated neoclassical tearing modes in slab using an equilibrium approach

We demonstrate for the first time that the nonlinear saturation of neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs) can be found directly using a variational principle based on Taylor relaxation, without needing to simulate the intermediate, resistivity-dependent dynamics. As in previous investigations of classical tearing mode saturation (Loizu et al 2020 Phys. Plasmas 27 070701; Loizu and Bonfiglio 2023 J. Plasma Phys. 89 905890507), we make use of Stepped Pressure Equilibrium Code (SPEC) (Hudson et al 2012 Phys. Plasmas 19 112502), an equilibrium solver based on the variational principle of the multi-region relaxed magnetohydrodynamics (MHDs), featuring stepped pressure profiles and arbitrary magnetic topology. We work in slab geometry and employ a simple bootstrap current model J bs = C$\boldsymbol{\nabla}$p to study the bootstrap-driven tearing modes, scanning over the asymptotic matching parameter Δ' and bootstrap current strength. Saturated island widths produced by SPEC agree well with the predictions of an initial value resistive MHDs code (Huang and Bhattacharjee 2016 Astrophys. J. 818 20) while being orders of magnitude faster to calculate. Additionally, we observe good agreement with a simple analytical modified Rutherford equation, without requiring any fitting coefficients. The match is obtained for both linearly unstable classical tearing modes in the presence of bootstrap current, and NTMs, which are linearly stable but nonlinear-unstable due to the effects of the bootstrap current.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

System and Machine Learning-Guided Materials Design for High-Pressure Hydrogen Compression

Cost-effective and reliable hydrogen compression remains a challenging barrier in the widespread adoption of hydrogen as an energy carrier. The prevailing technology of mechanical compression suffers from several drawbacks, some of which can be addressed by nonmechanical compression strategies (e.g., electrochemical or metal hydride-based thermal compression). Thermally driven metal hydride compression strategies typically rely on multistage metal hydride-based compressors; however, discovering or optimizing low-stability metal hydrides that can pressurize hydrogen upward of 1000 bar is difficult, both with respect to computational predictions and experimental validation. Here, in this study, we (1) demonstrate that simple machine learning-derived design rules can inform the rational design of alloying strategies yielding low-stability hydrides, (2) validate their experimental pressure–composition–temperature (PCT) isotherms up to 875 bar, and (3) utilize a dynamic system-level model of a metal hydride compressor design to evaluate their performance under realistic operating conditions. Importantly, this analysis yields predicted operational efficiencies of both 2-stage (90–875 bar) and 3-stage (20–875 bar) metal hydride compressors to enable further evaluation of this technology and its techno-economic outlook.

alloy optimization↗

Multi-physics Topology OPtimization and Additive Manufacturing for High-temperature Heat Exchangers

This research significantly advances the understanding of high-temperature heat exchanger design through an integrated approach that combines topology optimization (TO), triply periodic minimal surface (TPMS) structures, additive manufacturing (AM) and thermohydraulic testing. Each of these components contributes uniquely to a unified, high-performance design, fabrication and testing workflow. Topology optimization serves as the foundation of the design methodology by providing a systematic way to determine the most effective material layout for separating hot and cold fluids while maximizing thermal performance. The researchers introduced a novel three-material optimization framework using two density fields to represent hot fluid, cold fluid, and solid domains. This approach enables automated discovery of optimal shapes and flow paths that cannot be intuitively designed, especially under constraints imposed by manufacturing technologies. Furthermore, constraints such as minimal wall thickness and overhang angles were embedded into the optimization process, ensuring that resulting designs are not only thermally efficient but also manufacturable using modern additive techniques. In parallel, the study delves into the use of Gyroid-based TPMS geometries for constructing the core of the heat exchanger. TPMS structures are known for their high surface area, excellent fluid mixing capabilities, and minimal pressure drop characteristics. The researchers applied a data-driven modeling framework using Heteroscedastic Sparse Gaussian Process Regression (HSGPR) combined with genetic algorithms. This allowed for the rapid evaluation and optimization of key geometric parameters such as frequency, iso-value, and phase shift. The result was a set of Gyroid structures tailored for high heat transfer and low flow resistance, demonstrating clear improvements over conventional straight-channel designs. After the designing process, additive manufacturing played a critical role by turning these highly complex, optimized geometries into physical components. Utilizing Laser Powder Bed Fusion (LPBF) with Haynes 282, the study demonstrated the feasibility of fabricating these heat exchangers at high precision. Post-processing methods, including dilation-erosion operations, were applied to ensure local features adhered to self-supporting constraints. The fabricated structures were then subjected to thermohydraulic testing under conditions representative of supercritical CO 2 Brayton cycles, validating the predicted performance and confirming the viability of the full design-to-fabrication pipeline. Finally, thermohydraulic testing across the above studies served as a crucial experimental validation of advanced heat exchanger. Under consistent high-temperature and high-pressure conditions using supercritical CO 2 , the testing demonstrated that both TO and Gyroid-based TPMS designs significantly outperformed conventional straight-channel HXs. The TO design achieved a 115% increase in UA and NTU and a 27.6% boost in gravimetric power density, while the data-driven optimized Gyroid design delivered a 166% increase in UA and NTU and improved effectiveness from 68.7% to 86.1%. These results validate the simulation models, confirm the manufacturability of complex geometries under AM constraints, and provide key insights into design-performance trade-offs, thereby advancing the development of high-efficiency, compact heat exchangers for extreme environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Predicting initial trans-membrane pressure across cycles in the ultrafiltration process using random forest

With growing freshwater scarcity, direct potable reuse (DPR) systems that reclaim wastewater for drinking are becoming increasingly important for sustainable water supply. Reliable operation requires minimizing downtime in ultrafiltration (UF) units, where membrane fouling leads to elevated trans-membrane pressure (TMP). This study develops data-driven regression models based on random forest (RF) and autoregressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial TMP at the start of each UF filtration cycle in a pilot-scale DPR system. The RF model consistently outperforms baseline methods, including historical mean, last observation carried forward, and AR models, across multiple forecast horizons, achieving the lowest root mean square error. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent input variables across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is assessed for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches. The proposed RF framework establishes a robust foundation for predictive monitoring and real-time optimization of UF operations, supporting sustainable and reliable water reuse.

direct potable reuse↗

Pressure–Temperature–Magnetic Field Phase Diagram of Multiferroic (NH 4 ) 2 FeCl 5 ·H 2 O

We combined synchrotron-based infrared absorbance and Raman scattering spectroscopies with diamond anvil cell techniques and a symmetry analysis to explore the properties of multiferroic (NH 4 ) 2 FeCl 5 ·H 2 O under extreme pressure–temperature conditions. Compression-induced splitting of the Fe–Cl stretching, Cl–Fe–Cl and Cl–Fe–O bending, and NH 4 + librational modes defines two structural phase transitions, and a group–subgroup analysis reveals space group sequences that vary depending upon proximity to the unexpectedly wide order–disorder transition. Here, we bring these findings together with prior high-field work to develop the pressure–temperature–magnetic field phase diagram uncovering competing polar, chiral, and magnetic phases in this system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Response of a high-pressure 4 He scintillation detector to nuclear recoils up to 9 MeV

Helium-4-based scintillation detector technology is emerging as a strong alternative to pulse-shape discrimination-capable organic scintillators for fast neutron detection and spectroscopy, particularly in extreme gamma-ray environments. The 4 He detector is intrinsically insensitive to gamma radiation, as it has a relatively low cross-section for gamma-ray interactions, and the stopping power of electrons in the 4 He medium is low compared to that of 4 He recoil nuclei. Consequently, gamma rays can be discriminated by simple energy deposition thresholding instead of the more complex pulse shape analysis. The energy resolution of 4 He scintillation detectors has not yet been well-characterized over a broad range of energy depositions, which limits the ability to deconvolve the source spectra. In this work, an experiment was performed to characterize the response of an Arktis S670 4 He detector to nuclear recoils up to 9 MeV. The 4 He detector was positioned in the center of a semicircular array of organic scintillation detectors operated in coincidence. Deuterium–deuterium and deuterium–tritium neutron generators provided monoenergetic neutrons, yielding geometrically constrained nuclear recoils ranging from 0.0925 to 8.87 MeV. The detector response provides evidence for scintillation linearity beyond the previously reported energy range. Finally, the measured response was used to develop an energy resolution function applicable to this energy range for use in high-fidelity detector simulations needed by future applications.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Advanced Modeling and Process-Materials Co-Optimization Strategies for Swing Adsorption Based Gas Separations

This project devised a computational framework for simultaneously co-optimizing pressure swing adsorption process designs along with the sorbent materials (specifically, metal-organic frameworks) to be employed in the associated packed bed columns. The materials optimization aspect involved search over a design space that can describe the material’s molecular structure, while the process optimization aspect considered various process degrees of freedom for steps arising in various cycle configurations. This framework was demonstrated on the separation of nitrogen and carbon dioxide, which arises ubiquitously in a multitude of post-combustion carbon capture and “blue” hydrogen production applications. Our results led to metal-organic framework molecular descriptor choices that are predicted to outperform standard structures used in practice, providing guidance for future metal-organic framework synthesis efforts.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Optimizing the Heisenberg Vortex Tube for Hydrogen Cooling (Final Technical Report)

Hydrogen utilization at Plug Power sites ranges between 70-93% with the remainder vented and lost to the atmosphere. The goal of this project was to improve hydrogen utilization at Plug Power fulfillment centers via the patented Heisenberg vortex tube (HVT). The HVT combines conventional counterflow vortex tubes with para-orthohydrogen conversion catalyst to allow the cooling of hydrogen flows with no moving parts or external energy inputs. In year 1 of this project the HVT was evaluated to improve hydrogen utilization via the following concepts: 1) increasing liquid hydrogen pump volumetric efficiency by 20% through vapor separation and subcooling of the liquid, 2) reducing liquid hydrogen storage tank boil-off losses by 20% through thermal vapor shielding (TVS), and 3) increase isentropic efficiency of supercritical hydrogen expansion at 40-50 K, from 31% to over 40%. The TVS concept was selected as the most favorable application for further development. While the conceptual analysis was underway, the cryocatalysis hydrogen experiment facility (CHEF) was retrofitted with a new cryocooler, higher pressure condenser tanks, and in-situ fiber-optic Raman probes for ortho-parahydrogen composition analysis at the inlets and outlets of the HVT. To our knowledge this is the first in-situ implementation of cryogenic Raman probes for ortho-parahydrogen analysis. Subsequent testing of catalyzed and non-catalyzed HVT identified a low flow rate, high-conversion efficacy regime well suited for TVS development. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD), Reduced order modeling (ROM), and quantum Monte Carlo atomistic simulations were applied to optimize the design of the HVT implemented for TVS. The simulations and analysis identified a ruthenium-based catalyst as the most optimal for high conversion with little pressure losses and was matched to experimental measurements. These results indicated the design could achieve the 20% boil-off reduction target. An HVT field-trial was designed and constructed by Plug Power and implemented at a customer site. However, budget limitations reduced the amount of catalyst that could be applied to the HVT. With the reduced amount of catalyst, CFD analysis estimated about 3% reduction in boil-off. A similar amount of boil-off reduction was observed during preliminary measurements during tank commissioning. However, the results have a large margin for error and were operated at relatively low tank temperatures when the HVT has the lowest potential for improvement. This project demonstrated the use of para-orthohydrogen catalysis for reducing liquid hydrogen tank boil-off losses. The field trial system is anticipated to provide long-term experimental measurements on tank operational performance that will allow Plug Power to instrument additional tanks in the future. Recommendations for future work include the development of higher activity, lower cost para-orthohydrogen conversion catalyst for use in the HVT. Tank process optimizations could maximize the efficacy of the HVT and further improve hydrogen utilization.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Feasibility of Nitrogen as a Carrier Gas for Inconel Cold Spray in Hydropower Application

Cold spray deposition of Inconel nickel alloys has emerged as a promising strategy for mitigating cavitation erosion in hydropower facilities. Most prior developments employ helium (He) as the carrier gas because it enables high particle velocities and the formation of dense coatings. However, He is nearly two orders of magnitude more expensive than nitrogen (N2), which limits its widespread adoption in the hydropower sector. Although He-based cold spray can be justified for high value repairs, the lower cost and broad availability of N2 make it an attractive alternative. This study assesses the feasibility of N2-based cold spray of Inconel 625 powders for hydropower applications. Cavitation erosion testing shows that He-based coating exhibits cavitation resistance of ~398% relative to the 304L stainless steel (SS304L) substrate. In contrast, N2-based coating shows substantially lower cavitation resistance, reaching only ~69% of the SS304L substrate, even when higher carrier gas temperature and pressure are applied. When the Inconel 625 powder size is reduced from 44 to 22 µm under N2-based cold spray conditions, cavitation resistance increases significantly to ~148% of the SS304L substrate. Additional improvement can be obtained by incorporating fine chromium carbide powders into the feedstock, resulting in cavitation resistance of ~172% of the SS304L substrate. Overall, with optimized feedstock design, N2-based cold spray offers a practical and cost-effective approach for producing cavitation resistant coatings on hydropower components, although He-based cold spray continues to deliver higher cavitation resistance.

Wang, Tianhao↗

Scalable Layer-by-Layer Electrospray-Assisted Interfacial Polymerization: Enabling Large-Area Polyamide Membrane Fabrication

Layer-by-layer electrospray-assisted interfacial polymerization (LBL-EAIP) has recently been proposed as an alternative approach for fabricating polyamide membranes with precisely controlled thickness and polymerization degree, showing great potential for reverse osmosis (RO) membrane synthesis. In this article, we report a scale-up strategy for LBL-EAIP to enable its practical application in RO membrane manufacturing. A multi-jet electrospray apparatus was developed, and the device configuration and process parameters were carefully adjusted to produce polyamide-on-polyethersulfone thin film composite (TFC) membranes with consistently high salt rejection and water permeance across the membrane area. Specifically, an average 97.1% NaCl rejection from a 2000 ppm NaCl feed was achieved with an area-to-area deviation of 1%, along with a deionized water permeance of 0.90 ± 0.11 LMH/bar at 15 bar feed pressure. In addition, a Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR)-based analytical method was developed for semi-quantitative assessment of membrane thickness and compositional uniformity, enabling rapid mapping of film microstructure and chemical variations. This work provides a pathway to scale up LBL-EAIP technology, bridging the gap between laboratory-scale innovation and industrial-scale manufacturing.

Feng, Yue (ORCID:0000000221343980)↗

Impact of Forest Canopy Structure on Buoyant Plume Dynamics During Wildland Fires

Heterogeneous forest canopies can generate complex turbulent structures, but in the presence of a fire plume, these interactions are not fully understood. This study investigates the influence of forest canopy heterogeneity on buoyant plume dynamics resulting from surface thermal anomalies representing wildland fires, utilizing Large Eddy Simulation (LES). The Parallelized Large-Eddy Simulation Model (PALM) was employed to simulate six canopy configurations: no canopy, homogeneous canopy, external plume-edge canopy, internal plume-edge canopy, 100 m gap canopy, and 200 m gap canopy. Each configuration was analyzed with and without a static surface heat flux patch of 5000 W ∙ m -2 , resulting in a resting buoyant plume. Simulations were conducted under three crosswind speeds: 0, 5, and 10 m ∙ s -1 . Results show that canopy structure significantly modifies plume behavior, mean flow, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budgets. Plume updraft speed and tilt varied with canopy configuration and crosswind speed. Horizontal pressure gradients associated with plume-atmosphere interaction were modified based on the canopy configuration, resulting in varying crosswind speed reductions at the plume region. Strong momentum absorption was observed above the canopy for the crosswind cases, with the greatest enhancement in the gap canopies. Momentum injection from below the canopy due to the heat source was also observed, resulting in plume structure modulation based on canopy configuration. TKE was found to be the largest in the gap canopy configurations. TKE budget analysis revealed that buoyant production dominated over shear production. At the center of the heat patch, the gap canopy configurations showed enhanced buoyancy within the gap. These results improve our knowledge of fire-canopy-atmosphere interactions that can inform fire models on the impacts of canopy heterogeneity on plume dynamics and ember ejections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling gas, hydrates, and slope stability on the U.S. Atlantic margin during Pleistocene glacial cycles

Changes in temperature and sea level can cause dissociation of methane hydrates in shallow marine sediments, leading to seafloor destabilization. Along the U.S. Atlantic margin, there exists a well-documented history of slope failure and numerous recorded occurrences of gas seeps. Several studies have linked slope failure in the region to gas seepage and hydrate dissociation driven by glacial-interglacial transitions, but this linkage has not been quantitatively demonstrated. Along the shelf edge, in an area where shallow methane gas seeps have been identified, we modeled methane gas and hydrate formation using a one-dimensional fluid flow model. Methane gas formation was modeled over the last 120,000 years to simulate a glacial-interglacial cycle. Here, we ran this model at 16,044 individual locations in the region between 29° N – 45° N and 82° W – 66° W at a resolution of 1 x 1 arcminutes, focusing specifically on water depths between 200 and 1000 m that bracket the seafloor outcrop of the base of the hydrate stability zone. Using historic temperature and pressure records from the last 120,000 years, sediment properties in the area, and factor of safety calculations, we found that hydrate dissociation alone is unlikely to cause sediment failure in the region, implying that an additional driving force would be necessary for failure to occur.

Hydrate dissociation↗