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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2024

Irrigation-Driven Groundwater Depletion in the Ganges-Brahmaputra Basin Decreases the Streamflow in the Bay of Bengal

Ganges and Brahmaputra, two of Asia’s most prominent rivers, have a crucial role in Southeast Asia’s geopolitics and economy and are home to one of the world’s biggest marine ecosystems. Irrigation-driven groundwater depletion and climate change affect the Ganges-Brahmaputra’s hydrology, threatening the stability of the Bay of Bengal. Here, we quantify, using results from a land reanalysis, the impacts of a changing climate and intensive irrigation on the surface water flowing into the Bay of Bengal. The effects of such activities mostly occurring in the Ganges basin, either intensified or lessened depending on the area by the climatic conditions, decrease freshwater flow into the bay by up to 1200 m 3 /s/year. While the increase in precipitation in the Ganges basin reduces the effects of groundwater depletion on the streamflow, the decrease in precipitation and the snowmelt decline in the Brahmaputra basin exacerbate streamflow reduction due to groundwater depletion at the delta.

Climate change↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Bayesian Symbolic Regression: Addressing Challenges in Estimating Fractional Bayes Factors and Application to Fatigue Crack Growth Modeling

This research pioneers advancements in computational mechanics by integrating Bayesian-based uncertainty quantification into symbolic regression, specifically focusing on the critical task of accurately estimating the fractional Bayes factor for selecting arbitrary equations. In our exploration, we rigorously study two prominent methods—sequential Monte Carlo and the Laplace approximation—employed for computing the fractional Bayes factor. Our findings underscore the limitations of the Laplace approximation, revealing its diminished accuracy in nonlinear and multimodal scenarios. Specifically, the Laplace approximation is shown to underpredict fractional Bayes factor on a wide set of equations associated with a symbolic regression benchmark. This comparative analysis sheds light on the nuanced performance of these techniques, guiding researchers toward more informed choices in uncertainty quantification within symbolic regression. Furthermore, we showcase the practical utility of these enhanced symbolic regression tools through their application to a real-world problem in fatigue crack growth modeling, emphasizing their efficacy in capturing the complexities of mechanical systems.

Geoffrey Bomarito↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Biological Cleanliness: An Empirical Bayes Approach for Spacecraft Bioburden Accounting

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Antineutrino energy spectrum unfolding based on the Daya Bay measurement and its applications

The prediction of reactor antineutrino spectra will play a crucial role as reactor experiments enter the precision era. The positron energy spectrum of 3.5 million antineutrino inverse beta decay reactions observed by the Daya Bay experiment, in combination with the fission rates of fissile isotopes in the reactor, is used to extract the positron energy spectra resulting from the fission of specific isotopes. This information can be used to produce a precise, data-based prediction of the antineutrino energy spectrum in other reactor antineutrino experiments with different fission fractions than Daya Bay. The positron energy spectra are unfolded to obtain the antineutrino energy spectra by removing the contribution from detector response with the Wiener-SVD unfolding method. Consistent results are obtained with other unfolding methods. A technique to construct a data-based prediction of the reactor antineutrino energy spectrum is proposed and investigated. Given the reactor fission fractions, the technique can predict the energy spectrum to a 2% precision. In addition, we illustrate how to perform a rigorous comparison between the unfolded antineutrino spectrum and a theoretical model prediction that avoids the input model bias of the unfolding method.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Numerical Study of Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay Using an Unstructured Grid Model: Validation and Sensitivity to Bathymetry Representation

A three-dimensional unstructured-grid hydrodynamic and water quality model (Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Intergrated System Model-Integrated Compartment Model) is applied successfully for Chesapeake Bay. The model is validated with observations of salinity, chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen, nutrients, and phytoplankton productions from the year 1991 to 1995 for the mainstem and some major tributaries, based on multiple model skill scores. Model experiments are conducted to test the importance of having (1) an accurate representation of bathymetry to correctly predict hypoxia and other processes and (2) a high-resolution model grid for tributaries to correctly simulate water quality variables. Further, comparison with the model experiment results with bathymetry smoothing indicates that bathymetry smoothing, as commonly used for many systems, changes the stratification and lateral circulation pattern, resulting in more salt intrusion into shallow water regions, and an increase in the freshwater age. Consequently, a model with bathymetry smoothing can lead to an unrealistic prediction of the distribution of hypoxia and phytoplankton production. Local grid refinement shows significant improvement of model simulations on local stratification and water quality variables. Overall, the use of high-resolution unstructured grid model leads to a faithful representation of the complex geometry, and thus a seamless cross-scale capability for simulating water quality processes in the Bay including tributaries and tidal creeks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance evaluation of the USGS velocity model for the San Francisco Bay Area

In this study, we evaluated the performance of the United States Geological Survey velocity model developed for the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), version 21.1. The evaluation was performed through high-resolution three-dimensional physics-based ground motion simulations of seven small-magnitude earthquakes (ranging from magnitude 3.8 to 4.4) that occurred on the eastern side of the San Francisco Bay. The simulations were performed in the frequency range from 0 to 5 Hz with a minimum shear-wave velocity of 250 m/s, which allowed the capture of wave propagation effects of the near-surface soft materials that characterize local basins. Based on the direct comparison of Fourier amplitude spectra between recorded and simulated ground motions for more than 250 stations, we found that the velocity model generally performs well in the frequency range of 0.2–5 Hz. The median value of the Fourier amplitude residuals was found to be near zero for all seven earthquakes. The slight over-prediction of 0.2 log-natural units at frequencies above 3 Hz in our simulations was attributed to the potentially inaccurate representation of the source radiation pattern by a double-couple point source model, and simple representation of shallow small-scale underground structural complexity in the velocity model. Maps of spectral amplitude differences between the simulated and recorded data were used to identify areas responsible for systematic ground motion over-predictions or under-predictions. For example, while some sub-domains over soft sediments show over-prediction patterns, the block east of the Hayward fault is prone to exhibit patterns of under-prediction. These maps can be used to guide future refinements of the SFBA velocity model. Since our simulation methodology allows for the decoupling of the source and wave propagation effects, the ground motion data generated by our simulations can also be used to quantify the epistemic uncertainty due to the velocity model, in empirically based ground motion estimates for the SFBA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Precision Neutrino Oscillation Physics with the Daya Bay and DUNE Experiments

The team supported by this grant made significant contributions to the final results of the Daya Bay Reactor Antineutrino Experiment. This experiment utilized eight identically designed antineutrino detectors positioned at varying distances from six 2.9 GW th nuclear reactors to precisely measure the oscillation parameters that govern antineutrino disappearance at short (<2 km) baselines. Our group played a leading role in the calibration and data quality efforts, both of which have been crucial for all final results. Additionally, we co-led the development of an independent measurement of the neutrino mixing angle θ 13 and the atmospheric mass splitting using a sample of antineutrinos identified via neutron capture on hydrogen. Lastly, we laid the groundwork for a search for seasonal modulation in Daya Bay’s measured muon flux using the final dataset, a result expected to be published soon. Simultaneously, our team ramped up its participation in the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). This experiment will employ a powerful neutrino beam from Fermilab in Illinois directed to the Homestake mine in South Dakota to address some of the most pressing questions in neutrino physics, including the ordering of neutrino masses and whether neutrinos violate the CP symmetry. Our work focused on the development of the pixelated and modularized Liquid Argon Time-Projection Chamber technology that is being prepared for DUNE’s Near Detector. Our group took responsibility for the development, testing, and maintenance of the firmware for the control boards of the detector’s charge readout system and played an active role in analyzing data produced by the very first fully integrated prototypes.

2x2 Demonstrator↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Deuterium to Hydrogen Ratio in the Water that Formed the Yellowknife Bay Mudstones in Gale Crater

A suite of isotope ratios of light elements in the present martian atmosphere (13C/12C, 15N/14N, 18O/16O, 38Ar/36Ar, and D/H) are all substantially enriched in the heavy element suggesting atmospheric loss to space over the past billions of years with preferential loss of the lighter isotope from each pair. In situ measurements from MSL's Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument [e.g. 1,2,3] have considerably refined previous measurements from the Viking mass spectrometers [e.g. 4], from remote spectroscopic observations [e.g. 5,6], and from martian meteorite studies [e.g. 7,8]. The persistence of habitable environments such as the ancient Yellowknife Bay lake recently revealed by measurements from the Curiosity rover [9] depends on the surface temperatures and the duration of an atmosphere thicker than that at present. Current and planned measurements from orbit with the Mars Express and MAVEN missions respectively intend to study the processes of atmospheric escape including solar wind interaction, sputtering, thermal escape, and dissociative recombination, and determine or refine the current rate of atmospheric loss caused by these and other mechanisms. The goal of these programs is to understand the physical processes sufficiently well so that robust extrapolations over the past billions of years can be made D/H is measured by both the Tunable Laser Spectrometer (TLS) and the Quadrupole Mass Spectrometer (QMS) of the SAM suite. to predict the atmospheric and surface conditions on early Mars. However, the study of the history of martian atmospheric evolution will be greatly facilitated if we are able to also directly measure the isotopic composition of volatiles captured in rocks that are representative of the ancient atmosphere. To date, D/H is one of the most promising candidates for this study since water is the most abundant volatile thermally released from the Yellowknife Bay phylosilicates discovered by the SAM and CheMin experiments of MSL and its

Yellowknife Bay↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Landsat 8 Satellite Imagery to Analyze Biogeochemical Constituents in the Waters of the San Francisco Bay Area and Beyond

The ocean's coastal zones play a key role in our planet's health and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. Building on the success of NASA satellite imagery in mapping land cover changes around the globe in response to climate change, deforestation, and natural disasters, I have worked to determine how aquatic reflectance images from the Landsat 8 sensor could be correlated with biogeochemical constituents within the waters of the San Francisco Bay Area and California coastline. By analyzing Landsat 8 satellite imagery from the years 2013-2020 in collaboration with data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI), and universities involved with the Harmful Algal Bloom Monitoring and Alert Program (HABMAP), I investigated which areas of the San Francisco Bay and California coastline demonstrated significant correlations with values extracted from the satellite imagery. Using a Chlorophyll Index (CI) ratio calculated from two Landsat 8 satellite reflectance bands, it was found that there is a positive correlation between the CI and calculated oxygen, suspended particulate matter, and silicate from several USGS sampling points. In contrast, there is a significant negative correlation between the CI and salinity, nitrite, and phosphate at those same locations. Moreover, large suspected harmful algal blooms (HABs) along the California coastline seen in the Landsat 8 imagery were corroborated with HAB data from various institutions. Understanding the effectiveness of Landsat 8 aquatic reflectance images will allow scientists to predict HABs and other nutrient cycling that may be harmful to aquatic ecosystems around the world.

Landsat↗
DOE OSTI2024

Charged-current non-standard neutrino interactions at Daya Bay

The full data set of the Daya Bay reactor neutrino experiment is used to probe the effect of the charged current non-standard interactions (CC-NSI) on neutrino oscillation experiments. Two different approaches are applied and constraints on the corresponding CC-NSI parameters are obtained with the neutrino flux taken from the Huber-Mueller model with a 5% uncertainty. For the quantum mechanics-based approach (QM-NSI), the constraints on the CC-NSI parameters $ϵ_{eα}$ and $ϵ^s_{eα}$ are extracted with and without the assumption that the effects of the new physics are the same in the production and detection processes, respectively. The approach based on the weak effective field theory (WEFT-NSI) deals with four types of CC-NSI represented by the parameters [ε X ] eα . For both approaches, the results for the CC-NSI parameters are shown for cases with various fixed values of the CC-NSI and the Dirac CP-violating phases, and when they are allowed to vary freely. We find that constraints on the QM-NSI parameters $ϵ_{eα}$ and $ϵ^s_{eα}$ from the Daya Bay experiment alone can reach the order O(0.01) for the former and O(0.1) for the latter, while for WEFT-NSI parameters [ε X ] eα , we obtain O(0.1) for both cases.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Future changes in extreme precipitation over the San Francisco Bay Area: Dependence on atmospheric river and extratropical cyclone events

Extreme precipitation poses a major challenge for local governments, including the City and County of San Francisco, California, as flooding can damage and destroy infrastructure and property. As the climate continues to warm, reliable future precipitation projections are needed to provide the best possible information to decision makers. However, future changes in the magnitude of extreme precipitation are uncertain, as current state-of-the-art global climate models are typically run at relatively coarse horizontal resolutions that require the use of convective parameterization and have difficulty simulating observed extreme rainfall rates. Here, we performed ensembles of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations to investigate how five historically impactful extreme precipitation events over the San Francisco Bay Area could change if similar events occurred in future climates. We found that changes in storm-total precipitation depend strongly on storm type. Precipitation associated with an atmospheric river (AR) accompanied by an extratropical cyclone (ETC) is projected to increase at a rate exceeding (by up to 1.5 times) the theoretical Clausius Clapeyron scaling of 6–7% per °C warming. On the other hand, future precipitation changes are weak or negative for events characterized by an AR only, despite increases in precipitable water and integrated vapor transport that are similar to those of the co-occurring AR and ETC events. The differences in the sign of future precipitation change between AR-only events and co-occurring AR and ETC events is instead linked with changes in mid-tropospheric vertical velocity. Given that the majority of observed ARs are associated with an ETC, this research has important implications for future precipitation impacts over the Bay Area, as it indicates that storm-total precipitation associated with the most common type of storm event may increase by up to 26–37% in 2100 relative to historical.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamics and activity of an ammonia-oxidizing archaea bloom in South San Francisco Bay

Abstract Transient or recurring blooms of ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) have been reported in several estuarine and coastal environments, including recent observations of AOA blooms in South San Francisco Bay. Here, we measured nitrification rates, quantified AOA abundance, and analyzed both metagenomic and metatranscriptomic data to examine the dynamics and activity of nitrifying microorganisms over the course of an AOA bloom in South San Francisco Bay during the autumn of 2018 and seasonally throughout 2019. Nitrification rates were correlated with AOA abundance in quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) data, and both increased several orders of magnitude between the autumn AOA bloom and spring and summer seasons. From bloom samples, we recovered an extremely abundant, high-quality Candidatus Nitrosomarinus catalina-like AOA metagenome-assembled genome that had high transcript abundance during the bloom and expressed >80% of genes in its genome. We also recovered a putative nitrite-oxidizing bacteria metagenome-assembled genome from within the Nitrospinaceae that was of much lower abundance and had lower transcript abundance than AOA. During the AOA bloom, we observed increased transcript abundance for nitrogen uptake and oxidative stress genes in non-nitrifier metagenome-assembled genomes. This study confirms AOA are not only abundant but also highly active during blooms oxidizing large amounts of ammonia to nitrite—a key intermediate in the microbial nitrogen cycle—and producing reactive compounds that may impact other members of the microbial community.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Genome-Resolved Metagenomic Insights into Massive Seasonal Ammonia-Oxidizing Archaea Blooms in San Francisco Bay

Ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) are key for the transformation of ammonia to oxidized forms of nitrogen in aquatic environments around the globe, including nutrient-rich coastal and estuarine waters such as San Francisco Bay (SFB). Using metagenomics and 16S rRNA gene amplicon libraries, we found that AOA are more abundant than ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) and nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB), except in the freshwater stations in SFB. In South SFB, we observed recurrent AOA blooms of “Candidatus Nitrosomarinus catalina” SPOT01-like organisms, which account for over 20% of 16S rRNA gene amplicons in both surface and bottom waters and co-occur with weeks of high nitrite concentrations (>10 μM) in the oxic water column. We observed pronounced nitrite peaks occurring in the autumn for 7 of the last 9 years (2012 to 2020), suggesting that seasonal AOA blooms are common in South SFB. We recovered two high-quality AOA metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs), including a Nitrosomarinus-like genome from the South SFB bloom and another Nitrosopumilus genome originating from Suisun Bay in North SFB. Both MAGs cluster with genomes from other estuarine/coastal sites. Analysis of Nitrosomarinus-like genomes show that they are streamlined, with low GC content and high coding density, and harbor urease genes. Our findings support the unique niche of Nitrosomarinus-like organisms which dominate coastal/estuarine waters and provide insights into recurring AOA blooms in SFB.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

1981 Bay Area Metropolitan Transportation Commission Household Survey

The San Francisco Bay Area's Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) conducted the study in 1981, collecting household and travel information by telephone from 6,209 households in the MTC's nine-county jurisdiction. The sample gave good geographic coverage and provided a good representation of the population groups in the Bay Area. The survey was primarily intended to measure weekday travel; however, the size of the weekend travel sample was sufficient to enable MTC to make inferences about weekend trip generation. Travel days in the sample were spread out evenly over the three-month interviewing period to eliminate seasonal bias.

1Hz data↗
DOE OSTI2022

AmeriFlux US-UC1 LTAR UCB (Upper Chesapeake Bay) EC1

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-UC1 LTAR UCB (Upper Chesapeake Bay) EC1. Site Description - Upper Chesapeake Bay farm is privately owned. The farming that took place was performed by the Farm Owner. The ground is rolling terrain, next to wooded areas, private resdiences and other large fields maintained by private land owners. At the time of this collection period, the site housed another Eddy Covariance System and a two Phenocams. Crop has been continuous corn with plans to rotate to alfalfa grass mixture.

Goslee, Sarah↗
DOE OSTI2022

AmeriFlux US-UC2 LTAR UCB (Upper Chesapeake Bay) EC2

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-UC2 LTAR UCB (Upper Chesapeake Bay) EC2. Site Description - Upper Chesapeake Bay farm is privately owned. The farming that took place was performed by the Farm Owner. The ground is rolling terrain, next to wooded areas, private resdiences and other large fields maintained by private land owners. At the time of this collection period, the site housed another Eddy Covariance System and a two Phenocams. Crop has been continuous corn with plans to rotate to alfalfa grass mixture.

Goslee, Sarah↗
DOE OSTI2025

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-LA3 Barataria Bay Saline Marsh

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-LA3 Barataria Bay Saline Marsh. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-LA3 Barataria Bay Saline Marsh produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Saline marsh, 20-40% organic matter, microtidal, dominated by Spartina alterniflora + Juncus roemarianus, patchy open water area

Ward, Eric [University of Maryland]↗