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Results for “Bayes Methods”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Investigation of Stiffening Effects on Notch Growth Trajectory of Composite Stiffened Panels with Large Transverse Notches

Design of robust aircraft structure requires consideration of the load-carrying capability with large damage. Large notches, typically introduced as machined cracks (aka “notches”) severing a single skin bay and a central stiffening member, are often used to conservatively address the wide range of possible large damage scenarios. The objective of current effort was to explore the viability of developing preliminary laminate-based methods for predicting crack turning at the adjacent stiffener using traditional fracture mechanics concepts.

Enjuto, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS1983

A procedure for combining acoustically induced and mechanically induced loads (first passage failure design criterion)

The combined load statistics are developed by taking the acoustically induced load to be a random population, assumed to be stationary. Each element of this ensemble of acoustically induced loads is assumed to have the same power spectral density (PSD), obtained previously from a random response analysis employing the given acoustic field in the STS cargo bay as a stationary random excitation. The mechanically induced load is treated as either (1) a known deterministic transient, or (2) a nonstationary random variable of known first and second statistical moments which vary with time. A method is then shown for determining the probability that the combined load would, at any time, have a value equal to or less than a certain level. Having obtained a statistical representation of how the acoustic and mechanical loads are expected to combine, an analytical approximation for defining design levels for these loads is presented using the First Passage failure criterion.

Crowe, D. R.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Controlled Environments Enable Adaptive Management in Aquatic Ecosystems Under Altered Environments

Ecosystems worldwide are impacted by altered environment conditions resulting from climate, drought, and land use changes. Gaps in the science knowledge base regarding plant community response to these novel and rapid changes limit both science understanding and management of ecosystems. We describe how CE Technologies have enabled the rapid supply of gap-filling science, development of ecosystem simulation models, and remote sensing assessment tools to provide science-informed, adaptive management methods in the impacted aquatic ecosystem of the California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The Delta is the hub for California's water, supplying Southern California agriculture and urban communities as well as the San Francisco Bay area. The changes in environmental conditions including temperature, light, and water quality and associated expansion of invasive aquatic plants negatively impact water distribution and ecology of the San Francisco Bay/Delta complex. CE technologies define changes in resource use efficiencies, photosynthetic productivity, evapotranspiration, phenology, reproductive strategies, and spectral reflectance modifications in native and invasive species in response to altered conditions. We will discuss how the CE technologies play an enabling role in filling knowledge gaps regarding plant response to altered environments, parameterization and validation of ecosystem models, development of satellite-based, remote sensing tools, and operational management strategies.

Remote Sensing↗
NASA NTRS2018

Estimating CO2 Emissions Using Real and Simulated Total Column Observations

Total column measurements of CO2 (XCO2) have been proposed as a possible way to estimate emissions from large urban regions. Using calculations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a 1km emissions field, we investigate the viability of both real and proposed observing systems consisting of surface and/or column measurements for constraining emission sources of various types and sizes in the San Francisco Bay Area. We find that column observations are best suited for assessing enhancements downwind of very large emissions sources. For smaller sources (such as highways), in situ surface monitors are required to provide sufficient sensitivity. We explore methods for estimating emissions from the real and simulated observations.

Raheja, Garima↗
NASA NTRS1990

Genetic-evolution-based optimization methods for engineering design

This paper presents the applicability of a biological model, based on genetic evolution, for engineering design optimization. Algorithms embodying the ideas of reproduction, crossover, and mutation are developed and applied to solve different types of structural optimization problems. Both continuous and discrete variable optimization problems are solved. A two-bay truss for maximum fundamental frequency is considered to demonstrate the continuous variable case. The selection of locations of actuators in an actively controlled structure, for minimum energy dissipation, is considered to illustrate the discrete variable case.

Rao, S. S.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Summer Arctic sea ice character from satellite microwave data

It is pointed out that Arctic sea ice and its environment undergo a number of changes during the summer period. Some of these changes affect the ice cover properties and, in turn, their response to thermal and mechanical forcing throughout the year. The main objective of this investigation is related to the development of a method for estimating the areal coverage of exposed ice, melt ponds, and leads, which are the basic surface variables determining the local surface albedo. The study is based on data obtained in a field investigation conducted from Mould Bay (NWT), Nimbus 5 satellite data, and Seasat data. The investigation demonstrates that microwave data from satellites, especially microwave brightness temperature, provide good data for estimating important characteristics of summer sea ice cover.

Carsey, F. D.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Development of Test-Analysis Models (TAM) for correlation of dynamic test and analysis results

The primary objective of structural analysis of aerospace applications is to obtain a verified finite element model (FEM). The verified FEM can be used for loads analysis, evaluate structural modifications, or design control systems. Verification of the FEM is generally obtained as the result of correlating test and FEM models. A test analysis model (TAM) is very useful in the correlation process. A TAM is essentially a FEM reduced to the size of the test model, which attempts to preserve the dynamic characteristics of the original FEM in the analysis range of interest. Numerous methods for generating TAMs have been developed in the literature. The major emphasis of this paper is a description of the procedures necessary for creation of the TAM and the correlation of the reduced models with the FEM or the test results. Herein, three methods are discussed, namely Guyan, Improved Reduced System (IRS), and Hybrid. Also included are the procedures for performing these analyses using MSC/NASTRAN. Finally, application of the TAM process is demonstrated with an experimental test configuration of a ten bay cantilevered truss structure.

Angelucci, Filippo↗
NASA NTRS1995

Static stability of the Space Station solar array FASTMast structure

The combined loads test of the 3-Bay FASTMast marks the end of the Lewis Research Center (LeRC) effort to characterize the behavior of the principal Space Station solar array support structure. The primary objective of this test and analysis effort was to develop a method to predict structural stability failure modes under flight-like applied loads. Included at the beginning of this report is a brief historical perspective of the hardware design development and FASTMast structural stability problem evolution. Once an understanding of the solution process has been established, test and analysis details are presented and related to the postulated failure theories. The combined load test series subjected the structure to a combination of transverse, moment, and torsion loads similar to that expected in the service environment. Nonlinear finite element (FE) models were developed and large displacement analyses were performed to support the test effort and failure mode predictions. Details of the test configuration as well as test and analysis results are presented. The results were then critiqued to establish valid and successful support of the failure mode assessments. Finally, study conclusions are drawn and recommendations for safe operation of the FASTMast structure are presented for consideration.

Shaker, John F.↗
NASA NTRS2005

ATTITUDE FILTERING ON SO(3)

A new method is presented for the simultaneous estimation of the attitude of a spacecraft and an N-vector of bias parameters. This method uses a probability distribution function defined on the Cartesian product of SO(3), the group of rotation matrices, and the Euclidean space W N .The Fokker-Planck equation propagates the probability distribution function between measurements, and Bayes s formula incorporates measurement update information. This approach avoids all the issues of singular attitude representations or singular covariance matrices encountered in extended Kalman filters. In addition, the filter has a consistent initialization for a completely unknown initial attitude, owing to the fact that SO(3) is a compact space.

Markley, F. Landis↗
NASA NTRS2015

Projections of Temperature-Attributable Premature Deaths in 209 U.S. Cities Using a Cluster-Based Poisson Approach

Background: A warming climate will affect future temperature-attributable premature deaths. This analysis is the first to project these deaths at a near national scale for the United States using city and month-specific temperature-mortality relationships. Methods: We used Poisson regressions to model temperature-attributable premature mortality as a function of daily average temperature in 209 U.S. cities by month. We used climate data to group cities into clusters and applied an Empirical Bayes adjustment to improve model stability and calculate cluster-based month-specific temperature-mortality functions. Using data from two climate models, we calculated future daily average temperatures in each city under Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0. Holding population constant at 2010 levels, we combined the temperature data and cluster-based temperature-mortality functions to project city-specific temperature-attributable premature deaths for multiple future years which correspond to a single reporting year. Results within the reporting periods are then averaged to account for potential climate variability and reported as a change from a 1990 baseline in the future reporting years of 2030, 2050 and 2100. Results: We found temperature-mortality relationships that vary by location and time of year. In general, the largest mortality response during hotter months (April - September) was in July in cities with cooler average conditions. The largest mortality response during colder months (October-March) was at the beginning (October) and end (March) of the period. Using data from two global climate models, we projected a net increase in premature deaths, aggregated across all 209 cities, in all future periods compared to 1990. However, the magnitude and sign of the change varied by cluster and city. Conclusions: We found increasing future premature deaths across the 209 modeled U.S. cities using two climate model projections, based on constant temperature-mortality relationships from 1997 to 2006 without any future adaptation. However, results varied by location, with some locations showing net reductions in premature temperature-attributable deaths with climate change.

Schwartz, Joel D.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Passive microwave measurements of temperature and salinity in coastal zones

Experimental methods and results from the maritime remote sensing (MARSEN) experiments using dual frequency microwave radiometer detecting systems on board aircraft are described. The radiometers were operated at 1.43 and 2.65 GHz and flown above U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, Chesapeake Bay, around Puerto Rico, and over the German Bight. The advanced switched radiometers used were configured to be independent of gain variations and errors originating from front-end losses and determined the absolute brightness temperatures to within a few tenths Kelvin. Corrections to the observed brightness temperature of the ocean are analytically defined, including accounts made for roughness, the cosmic background radiation, and the solar radio source. The coastal flight data for salinity gradients and surface temperatures were compared with sea truth measured from ships and found to be accurate to within 1 C and 1 pph.

Blume, H.-J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1983

An analysis of new techniqes for radiometric correction of LANDSAT-4 Thematic Mapper images

The utility of methods for generating TM RLUTS which can improve the quality of the resultant images was investigated. The TM-CCT-ADDS tape was changed to account for a different collection window for the calibration data. Several scenes of Terrebonne Bay, Louisiana and the Grand Bahamas were analyzed to evaluate the radiometric corrections operationally applied to the image data and to investigate several techniques for reducing striping in the images. Printer plots for the TM shutter data were produced and detector statistics were compiled and plotted. These statistics included various combinations of the average shutter counts for each scan before and after DC restore for forward and reverse scans. Results show that striping is caused by the detectors becoming saturated when they view a bright cloud and depress the DC restore level.

Kogut, J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Regional Deformation Studies with GRACE and GPS

GRACE data indicate large seasonal variations in gravity that have been shown to be to be related to climate-driven fluxes of surface water. Seasonal redistribution of surface mass deforms the Earth, and our previous study using GRACE data demonstrate that annual radial deformations of +/-13 mm in the region of Amazon River Basin were observed by both GRACE and ten GPS sites in the region. For the GRACE determinations, we estimate in a least-squares solution for each Stokes coefficient parameters that represent the amplitudes of the annual variation. We then filter these parameters based on a statistical test that uses the scatter of the postfit residuals. We demonstrate by comparison to the GPS amplitudes that this method is more accurate, for this region, than Gaussian smoothing. Our model for the temporal behavior of the gravity coefficients includes a rate term, and although the time series are noisy, the glacial isostatic adjustment signal over Hudson s Bay can be observed. .

Davis, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Two Mathematical Models of Nonlinear Vibrations

Two innovative mathematical models of nonlinear vibrations, and methods of applying them, have been conceived as byproducts of an effort to develop a Kalman filter for highly precise estimation of bending motions of a large truss structure deployed in outer space from a space-shuttle payload bay. These models are also applicable to modeling and analysis of vibrations in other engineering disciplines, on Earth as well as in outer space.

Brugarolas, Paul↗
NASA NTRS1974

Coastal wetlands - Prospects for satellite inventory

It is pointed out that coastal wetlands are among the nation's most valuable natural resources. A relatively low cost and moderately accurate method for mapping these areas would, therefore, be very attractive. It appears that such a method could be found by utilizing ERTS-1 data. Two test sites were selected for an intensive study of the feasibility of such an approach. One test area involves a salt marsh complex located at the mouth of the Chincoteague Bay in Virginia. The second area constitutes a near-saline marsh at the mouth of the Nanticoke River, Maryland. The study shows that ERTS-1 digital data provide maximum gray-level resolution for the mapping of wetland species and features.

Anderson, R. R.↗
NASA NTRS1989

CSM parallel structural methods research

Parallel structural methods, research team activities, advanced architecture computers for parallel computational structural mechanics (CSM) research, the FLEX/32 multicomputer, a parallel structural analyses testbed, blade-stiffened aluminum panel with a circular cutout and the dynamic characteristics of a 60 meter, 54-bay, 3-longeron deployable truss beam are among the topics discussed.

Storaasli, Olaf O.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Mapping Atlantic coastal marshlands, Maryland, Georgia, using ERTS-1 imagery

Eastern coastal marshes are the most extensive and productive in the United States. A relatively low cost, moderately accurate method is needed to map these areas for management and protection. Groundbased and low-altitude aircraft methods for mapping are time-consuming and quite expensive. The launch of NASA's Earth Resources Technology Satellite has provided an opportunity to test the feasibility of mapping wetlands using small scale imagery. The test sites selected were in Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, and Ossabaw Island, Georgia. Results of the investigation indicate that the following may be ascertained from ERTS imagery, enlarged to 1:250,000: (1) upper wetland boundary; (2) drainage pattern in the wetland; (3) plant communities; (4) ditching activities associated with agriculture; and (5) lagooning for water-side home development. Conclusions are that ERTS will be an excellent tool for many types of coastal wetland mapping.

Anderson, R. R.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Comparison of techniques for approximating ocean bottom topography in a wave-refraction computer model

A study of the effects of using different methods for approximating bottom topography in a wave-refraction computer model was conducted. Approximation techniques involving quadratic least squares, cubic least squares, and constrained bicubic polynomial interpolation were compared for computed wave patterns and parameters in the region of Saco Bay, Maine. Although substantial local differences can be attributed to use of the different approximation techniques, results indicated that overall computed wave patterns and parameter distributions were quite similar.

Poole, L. R.↗