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DOE OSTI2023

Understanding Biases in Sample Preparation Techniques for Coupled Scanning Electron Microscopy and MAMA PuO 2 Morphological Analysis

In this project, the scanning electron microscopy (SEM) sampling method used during the statistical design study (SDS) was investigated to determine if any sampling biases were present in the analyzed data. Using standard particle size distribution powders from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST 1984 standard reference material) with the origin wet dispersion method, it was determined that a bias to smaller particles was present. This was supported by theoretical calculations using Stokes’ law to determine the settling rate of spherical particles of roughly the same size and mass as those found in the SDS. Based on the theoretical calculations, it was determined that the settling rate for each of the 76 powder sets in the SDS could be unique based on specific particle shape and mass distributions, making a universal correction factor/formula not applicable. Therefore, priority shifted to developing an improved wet dispersion method that significantly reduced the particle settling rate for all particle size and shapes. This was achieved by replacing the original solvent (isopropyl alcohol) with a heavy liquid (lithium heteropolytungstates), which dramatically slowed the settling rate and allowed for the capture of a suitable homogeneous aliquot. SEM imaging and Morphological Analysis for Material Attribution (MAMA) software analysis were conducted on the NIST standard, and the SEM/MAMA data were compared to data captured by a dynamic image analysis particle size analyzer. The resulting data confirmed that the new wet dispersion method does indeed deliver an improved representative aliquot to the SEM stub. For instance, in the NIST certificate, the average particle size is ~17.1 µm ± 2.2 µm with a normal distribution. The initial wet dispersion method resulted in a drastically reduced average particle size of 6.1 µm in addition to a non-representative heavy bi-modal distribution whereas the improved LST wet dispersion method resulting in an average particle size that was much closer to the NIST certificate (12.7 µm) with a similar normal distribution. Although the improved method was still short of the NIST certificate average, atomic force microscopy analysis determined that the resulting ~20-25% reduction in size was due to particles sinking into the carbon sticky tape used for SEM imaging. It is believed that that this bias can be calibrated in a much more predicable manner than the original settling rate bias. In addition, the matching normal distribution curves between the NIST certificate and the heavy liquid method indicate a much-improved representative aliquot has been sampled and imaged. A surrogate CeO 2 powder was used to reflect PuO 2 more accurately and to aid in implementing radiological controls and shielding. The resulting data sets from the SEM/MAMA method and the particle size analyzer give almost identical average particle sizes and particle distribution statistics. Future work will re-analyze several select runs from the SDS to determine if morphological signatures can be found with the improved sampling method.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

The DESI One-percent Survey: Evidence for Assembly Bias from Low-redshift Counts-in-cylinders Measurements

Abstract We explore the galaxy-halo connection information that is available in low-redshift samples from the early data release of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We model the halo occupation distribution (HOD) from z = 0.1 to 0.3 using Survey Validation 3 (SV3; a.k.a., the One-Percent Survey) data of the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey. In addition to more commonly used metrics, we incorporate counts-in-cylinders (CiC) measurements, which drastically tighten HOD constraints. Our analysis is aided by the Python package, galtab , which enables the rapid, precise prediction of CiC for any HOD model available in halotools . This methodology allows our Markov chains to converge with much fewer trial points, and enables even more drastic speedups due to its GPU portability. Our HOD fits constrain characteristic halo masses tightly and provide statistical evidence for assembly bias, especially at lower luminosity thresholds: the HOD of central galaxies in z ∼ 0.15 samples with limiting absolute magnitude M r < −20.0 and M r < −20.5 samples is positively correlated with halo concentration with a significance of 99.9% and 99.5%, respectively. Our models also favor positive central assembly bias for the brighter M r < −21.0 sample at z ∼ 0.25 (94.8% significance), but there is no significant evidence for assembly bias with the same luminosity threshold at z ∼ 0.15. We provide our constraints for each threshold sample’s characteristic halo masses, assembly bias, and other HOD parameters. These constraints are expected to be significantly tightened with future DESI data, which will span an area 100 times larger than that of SV3.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program: Cosmological Biases from Host Galaxy Mismatch of Type Ia Supernovae

Abstract Redshift measurements, primarily obtained from host galaxies, are essential for inferring cosmological parameters from type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). Matching SNe to host galaxies using images is nontrivial, resulting in a subset of SNe with mismatched hosts and thus incorrect redshifts. We evaluate the host galaxy mismatch rate and resulting biases on cosmological parameters from simulations modeled after the Dark Energy Survey 5 Yr (DES-SN5YR) photometric sample. For both DES-SN5YR data and simulations, we employ the directional light radius method for host galaxy matching. In our SN Ia simulations, we find that 1.7% of SNe are matched to the wrong host galaxy, with redshift differences between the true and matched hosts of up to 0.6. Using our analysis pipeline, we determine the shift in the dark energy equation of state parameter (Δ w ) due to including SNe with incorrect host galaxy matches. For SN Ia–only simulations, we find Δ w = 0.0013 ± 0.0026 with constraints from the cosmic microwave background. Including core-collapse SNe and peculiar SNe Ia in the simulation, we find that Δ w ranges from 0.0009 to 0.0032, depending on the photometric classifier used. This bias is an order of magnitude smaller than the expected total uncertainty on w from the DES-SN5YR sample of ∼0.03. We conclude that the bias on w from host galaxy mismatch is much smaller than the uncertainties expected from the DES-SN5YR sample, but we encourage further studies to reduce this bias through better host-matching algorithms or selection cuts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Catalytic Bias of NADH-Dependent Reduced Ferredoxin: NADP+ Oxidoreductase (Nfn) and its Relevance to Ethanol Production in Thermoanaerobacterium Saccharolyticum

NADH-dependent reduced ferredoxin: NADP+ oxidoreductase (Nfn) enzyme catalyzes an energy-conserving flavin-based electron bifurcation (FBEB) reaction. In microbial metabolism, Nfn links redox pools of three electron carriers - ferredoxin (Fd), NAD(H), and NADP(H) - through the following FBEB reaction: 2 NADPH + NAD+ + 2 Fdox 2 NADP+ + NADH + 2 Fdred + H+ The forward reaction is termed electron bifurcation, and the reverse reaction is electron confurcation. Catalytic bias describes an enzyme's tendency to favor one direction of a reversible reaction over the other and is expressed as the ratio of activities in the two directions. Thermoanaerobacterium saccharolyticum (Tsac) is a thermophilic, ethanologenic bacterium that ferments hemicellulose to ethanol at yields above 90%. Its Nfn enzyme is known to support ethanol production, presumably by operating in the confurcating direction to balance cellular cofactors, but this has not previously been demonstrated. To investigate the Tsac Nfn further, we heterologously expressed, purified, and reconstituted the proteins NfnS (NfnA), NfnL (NfnB), and the putative partner Fd with iron-sulfur cluster and/or FAD cofactors. Activity assays monitoring the oxidation or reduction of Fd showed that, across pH 5-10, Tsac Nfn is catalytically biased towards the confurcating direction, favoring NADPH generation over NADPH oxidation by at least fivefold. Using protein electrochemistry, we also determined the reduction potentials of the cofactors in NfnL and Fd. These results indicate that the energetic landscape of FBEB in Tsac Nfn is similar to that in an ortholog. However, Tsac Fd has redox properties distinct from previously assayed Fds, suggesting that the identity and redox properties of Fd may help determine the catalytic bias of Nfn. Additionally, we confirmed the standalone ferredoxin: NADP+ oxidoreductase (FNOR) activity of NfnL but found it to be low and likely insignificant for in vivo redox conversion. We also show how the catalytic bias of Nfn integrates with the hydrogen cycling mechanism proposed in Tsac to better explain cofactor balancing for ethanol production. Our work advances the understanding of electron transfer processes within metabolic networks for the generation of valuable bioproducts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

How non-ohmic contact-layer diodes in perovskite pinholes affect abrupt low-voltage reverse-bias breakdown and destruction of solar cells

Perovskite solar cells (PSCs) rapidly degrade under reverse bias, a condition that may occur during partial shading. Here, in this study, we use electrical measurements, electron microscopy, and optical and thermal imaging to investigate abrupt breakdown and hotspotting under low reverse potentials (<|-2| V). We show that microscopic pinholes in the perovskite layer cause rapid, destructive breakdown under reverse bias despite minimally reducing power conversion efficiencies. Measurements on miniature (200-micrometer diameter) PSCs and perovskite-free transport-layer diodes indicate that abrupt, low-voltage breakdown occurs in nanoscale to micrometer-scale defects and that metal migration and filamentation are unlikely causes. Reverse-bias stability substantially improves when pinholes in the perovskite and transport layers are eliminated. Atomic layer deposition of tin oxide prevents abrupt breakdown by ensuring physical separation between electrodes-not by blocking metal ion migration. Perovskite researchers should adopt cleaner, more uniform deposition techniques to enable robust PSCs for further research and commercial applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Exchange-Biased Quantum Anomalous Hall Effect

The quantum anomalous Hall (QAH) effect is characterized by a dissipationless chiral edge state with a quantized Hall resistance at zero magnetic field. Manipulating the QAH state is of great importance in both the understanding of topological quantum physics and the implementation of dissipationless electronics. Here, the QAH effect is realized in the magnetic topological insulator Cr-doped (Bi,Sb) 2 Te 3 (CBST) grown on an uncompensated antiferromagnetic insulator Al-doped Cr 2 O 3 . Through polarized neutron reflectometry (PNR), a strong exchange coupling is found between CBST and Al-Cr 2 O 3 surface spins fixing interfacial magnetic moments perpendicular to the film plane. Further, the interfacial coupling results in an exchange-biased QAH effect. This study further demonstrates that the magnitude and sign of the exchange bias can be effectively controlled using a field training process to set the magnetization of the Al-Cr 2 O 3 layer. It demonstrates the use of the exchange bias effect to effectively manipulate the QAH state, opening new possibilities in QAH-based spintronics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bias-Adjustment Methods for Future Subdaily Precipitation Extremes Consistent Across Durations

Model output from climate projections often requires bias-adjustment to compensate for systematic model errors. A bias-adjustment method for extreme precipitation intensity is proposed that preserves the scaling equation for different accumulation levels from hourly to daily, using intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) modeling. A validation is performed within a pseudo-reality setting, based on hourly precipitation from 28 regional climate model projections of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble over Belgium. The scaling-based adjustment methods improve upon previous methods, an optimal method is identified, and, analytical quantile mapping methods must be avoided due to three identified problems. The ensemble mean of the adjusted extreme precipitation intensity obeys the above-mentioned scale-invariance property, which is consistent with observed extreme intensities. We thus show that IDF modeling provides added value in the context of bias-adjustment, and, that the particular IDF model proposed balances well between accuracy and the preservation of desired properties such as scale invariance and consistency among rainfall durations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multivariate Drought Monitoring, Propagation, and Projection Using Bias-Corrected General Circulation Models

Understanding how droughts are characterized, propagated, and projected, particularly multivariate droughts, is necessary to explain the variability and changes in drought characteristics. This study aims to understand multimodel global drought monitoring, propagation, and projection by utilizing a multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) during the historical (1959–2014) and future (2045–2100) periods under two socioeconomic pathways SSPs (370 and 585), derived from the bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Based on the energy metrics, the multivariate bias correction method outperformed other techniques in correcting the biases in the CMIP6 drought representation. The drought indicators demonstrate distinct categories for meteorological, hydrological, and multivariate droughts. There were significant high cross correlations between Heatwave Total Length (HWTL) and MSDI in Africa and South America for all lagged times. Europe and North America generally saw the maximum MSDI drought duration (228 months) during the historical period. For future projections, Africa recorded the maximum drought duration (197 months), while Europe witnessed the minimum drought duration for SSP 370 (171 months), and North America (149 months) for SSP 585. Furthermore, during the historical period in tropical Africa, the propagation of meteorological to hydrological drought was slower during the wet months than during the dry months. Under the SSP 370 future projection, there was a shift in the long period of meteorological-hydrological propagation from the middle and late wet months to the beginning of the wet months in tropical Africa. Therefore, tracking and projecting drought characteristics is vital for understanding the risk of drought-related consequences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Interfacial Characterization of Positive Bias Voltage Degradation in PV Modules

Degradation from high system voltage is a prevailing failure mode in fielded photovoltaic modules, and the degradation mechanism is inherently dependent on the bias polarity. Here we report the effects of positive bias. Modules under positive bias demonstrated a significant photocurrent loss caused by two routes. First, delamination and discoloration of the silicon nitride layer, leading to optical loss determined by reflectance measurements. Second, chemical discoloration of the cell gridlines and encapsulant (EVA), which is linked to an electrochemical reaction at the silver electrodes. Chemical compositional analysis using X-ray photoemission spectroscopy demonstrated that the discoloration is attributed to Ag 2 S and/or Ag 2 O. Evidence of Ag ion migration from the cell grid into the encapsulant is observed after shallow depth profiling on the EVA surface. However, Ag was not detected at the EVA/glass interface, inferring limited Ag ion transport through the EVA. The source of sulfur is believed to be ambient air, which diffused into the module through the breathable backsheet.

characterization↗

DOE OSTI2022

Aggregation bias and its drivers in large‐scale flood loss estimation: A Massachusetts case study

Abstract Large‐scale estimations of flood losses are often based on spatially aggregated inputs. This makes risk assessments vulnerable to aggregation bias, a well‐studied, sometimes substantial outcome in analyses that model fine‐grained spatial phenomena at coarse spatial units. To evaluate this potential in the context of large‐scale flood risk assessments, we use data from a high‐resolution flood hazard model and structure inventory for over 1.3 million properties in Massachusetts and examine how prominent data aggregation approaches affect the magnitude and spatial distribution of flood loss estimates. All considered aggregation approaches rely on aggregate structure inventories but differ in whether flood hazard is also aggregated. We find that aggregating only structure inventories slightly underestimates overall losses (−10% bias), and when flood hazard data is spatially aggregated to even relatively small spatial units (census block), statewide aggregation bias can reach +366%. All aggregation‐based procedures fail to capture the spatial covariation of inputs distributions in the upper tails that disproportionately generate total expected losses. Our findings are robust to several key assumptions, add important context to published risk assessments and highlight opportunities to improve flood loss estimation uncertainty quantification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Combination of Rejection Sampling with Biased Probability Density Sampling (with Special Comments on MCNP "Cookie Cutter" Rejection)

Sampling from biased probability densities and rejection sampling are both very common Monte Carlo techniques. As far as I know, the combination of sampling from a biased density and rejection sampling has not been developed. This note develops the theory for sampling from a biased density and then accepting or rejecting that sampling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Biases in preconstruction estimates of wind plant annual energy production

Estimating the energy yield of a wind plant during the preconstruction phase is a historically difficult task, even with industry improvements in these estimations. We build on prior research comparing the realized energy production of wind plants and their estimated annual energy production P50 values (median energy production), using owner-provided energy production and losses. We produced similar results to prior studies but with a slightly increasing bias of overestimating median energy production (a bias between realized and estimated energy production of −7.4 % to −6.6 %, depending on the scenario, as opposed to −6.7 % to −5.5 % from earlier studies). In addition to assessing annual energy production P50 bias, we compared both the 1-year and the long-term annual energy production P90 and uncertainty energy yield assessment estimates to the observed long-term-corrected energy production. We found that neither the energy yield assessment uncertainty nor the P90 is conservative enough compared to the observed distribution of prediction errors, suggesting significant room for improvement in the energy yield assessment process.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Overview of Wind Energy Production Prediction Bias, Losses, and Uncertainties

The financing of a wind farm directly relates to the preconstruction energy yield assessments which estimate the annual energy production for the farm. The accuracy and the precision of the preconstruction energy estimates can dictate the profitability of the wind project. Historically, the wind industry tended to overpredict the annual energy production of wind farms. Experts have been dedicated to eliminating such prediction errors in the past decade, and recently the industry is recording near-zero average energy prediction bias. Herein, we present an overview of the energy yield assessment errors across the global wind energy industry. We identify a long-term trend of reduction in the overprediction bias, whereas the uncertainty associated with the prediction error is prominent. We also summarize the recent advancements of the wind resource assessment process that justify the bias reduction, including the improvements in modeling and measurement techniques. Additionally, because the energy losses and uncertainties substantially influence the prediction error, we document and examine the estimated and observed loss and uncertainty values from the literature, according to the proposed framework in the International Electrotechnical Commission 61400-15 wind resource assessment standard. From our findings, we highlight the opportunities for the industry to move forward, such as the validation and reduction of prediction uncertainty, and the prevention of energy losses caused by wake effect and environmental events. Overall, this study provides a summary on how the wind energy industry has been quantifying and reducing prediction errors, energy losses, and production uncertainties. Finally, for this work to be as reproducible as possible, we include all of the data used in the analysis in appendices to the manuscript.

literature review↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bias‐Dependent Quantum Efficiency Reveals Recombination Pathways in Thin Film Solar Cells

Identifying where recombination predominantly occurs—whether at the front interface, back interface, or throughout the bulk—is crucial for optimizing CdSeTe solar cells and many other photovoltaic device architectures. Here, a simple and effective diagnostic is demonstrated: measuring external quantum efficiency (QE) under varying forward biases. The drift–diffusion simulations reveal that each recombination pathway leaves a distinct bias-induced signature in the normalized QE: a progressive drop at long wavelengths for back-limited devices, a short-wavelength decline for front-limited devices, and a relatively uniform decrease across all wavelengths for bulk-limited devices. These predictions are validated with experiments on As-doped and Cu-doped CdSeTe devices, with and without passivation layers or different front buffers. In each case, the observed bias-dependent QE spectral changes align with the simulated recombination map. Because this method uses standard QE instrumentation, it offers a broadly accessible and cost-efficient means to diagnose recombination pathways—extending beyond CdSeTe to other thin-film and emerging solar cell technologies. By pinpointing recombination bottlenecks, researchers and manufacturers can strategically refine doping profiles, passivation schemes, and interface designs to further improve device performance.

CdTe↗

DOE OSTI2020

Behavior of Na and RbF-Treated CdS/Cu(In,Ga)Se 2 Solar Cells with Stress Testing under Heat, Light, and Junction Bias

In this work, the effects of Na and RbF alkali treatment on the metastability behavior of CdS/Cu(In,Ga)Se 2 solar cells are investigated with stress factors of heat, junction bias, and illumination. Four device types with and without Na or RbF treatments are subjected to heat- and light-soaking under open- and short-circuit (OC, SC) junction bias. Low-Na devices show a higher bandgap due to increased minimum Ga content, higher recombination current, and lower open-circuit voltage (V OC ). Devices with RbF post-deposition treatment (PDT) show an improvement in net doping density ≈10 16 cm –3 , V OC , and efficiency. Heat- and light-soaking under OC junction bias provokes an increase in net carrier concentration and V OC irrespective of the alkali treatments. After SC stress, a decrease in V OC and net carrier concentration is observed, which can be stabilized by RbF-PDT. An increase in Na and oxygen concentration in CIGS is observed for baseline and low-Na devices, respectively, after OC stress. The oxygen concentration in CdS decreases after heat- and light-soaking for devices without RbF-PDT, whereas it remains unchanged for devices with RbF-PDT. The atomic concentration profiles in CIGS significantly stabilize as a function of stress with the addition of RbF-PDT.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Analysis of FPGA LUT Bias and Entropy for Physical Unclonable Functions

Process variations within Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) provide a rich source of entropy and are therefore well-suited for the implementation of Physical Unclonable Functions (PUFs). However, careful considerations must be given to the design of the PUF architecture as a means of avoiding undesirable localized bias effects that adversely impact randomness, an important statistical quality characteristic of a PUF. Here in this paper, we investigate a ring-oscillator (RO) PUF that leverages localized entropy from individual look-up table (LUT) primitives. A novel RO construction is presented that enables the individual paths through the LUT primitive to be measured and isolated at high precision, and an analysis is presented that demonstrates significant levels of localized design bias. The analysis demonstrates that delay-based PUFs that utilize LUTs as a source of entropy should avoid using FPGA primitives that are localized to specific regions of the FPGA, and instead, a more robust PUF architecture can be constructed by distributing path delay components over a wider region of the FPGA fabric. Compact RO PUF architectures that utilize multiple configurations within a small group of LUTs are particularly susceptible to these types of design-level bias effects. The analysis is carried out on data collected from a set of identically designed, hard macro instantiations of the RO implemented on 30 copies of a Zynq 7010 SoC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

How close are urban scale building simulations to measured data? Examining bias derived from building metadata in urban building energy modeling

Residential and commercial buildings in the United States accounted for 40% of total energy in 2020. Building energy modeling (BEM) is a useful tool that allows individuals, researchers, companies, or utilities to save energy by optimizing buildings through estimation of building technology savings and performance projection of building energy under various environmental conditions. Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) expands the scope beyond individual buildings to the buildings in a neighborhood, city, utility and more. Yet there is a knowledge gap in the literature as to how these models compare to measured data on an individual and aggregated basis. As UBEM data and methods continue to develop, it is important to consider the accuracy, bias, and limitations of the models. Here, nation-scale data and UBEM software suite named Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) was used to model 50,843 buildings in Chattanooga, Tennessee. The uncalibrated simulation results were compared to aggregated 15-minute electricity data for the year 2019 with visualizations highlighting sources of bias in building data and the AutoBEM framework while considering how they relate to other UBEM methods. Estimation of building type and year of constructions are found to be the major sources of bias. Accounting for the amount of conditioned area per building significantly improves the overall fit of the simulated energy use intensity. it was found that inherent variation in building energy use contributes to R 2 values between 0.008 and 0.095 across building types but slope values near 1 for the total number of buildings. This indicates the need for building aggregation for representative building energy modeling with data sources available at an urban scale while illustrating the need for additional individual building data and model improvement beyond the originally produced UBEM models for individual building analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Turbulence-induced bias in time-averaged laser absorption tomography of correlated concentration and temperature fields with a first-order correction

The influence of correlated scalar fluctuations on time-averaged laser absorption tomography measurements of temperature and species in a piloted turbulent premixed flame was examined using a coupled spectroscopic and fluid-dynamic analysis. To understand bias associated with turbulence, spatio-temporally resolved temperature and species mole fraction profiles predicted by large eddy simulations (LES) were used to synthetically generate time-resolved line-of-sight absorption measurements at short time scales (microsecond) to reflect the unsteady nature of a canonical jet burner across various transverse measurement planes. Inversion methods were employed on the time-averaged line-of-sight data to produce radially-resolved temperature and mole fraction profiles, analogous to those produced by laser absorption tomography performed on a time-averaged axisymmetric flowfield. It is shown that bias in the measurements compared to true time-averaged scalar fields is a function primarily of temperature dependence in absorptivity and non-zero correlation between temperature and species concentration scalars. Finally, a first-order correction to tomography measurements is proposed to account for the bias based on estimated correlations and the known spectroscopic parameters of the probed absorption transitions.

42 ENGINEERING↗