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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Evolution of Intent and Social Influence Networks and Their Significance in Detecting COVID-19 Disinformation Actors on Social Media

Online disinformation actors are those individuals or bots who disseminate false or misleading information over social media, with the intent to sway public opinion in the information domain towards harmful social outcomes. Quantification of the degree to which users post or respond intentionally versus under social influence, remains a challenge, as individuals or organizations operating the profile are foreshadowed by their online persona. However, social influence has been shown to be measurable in the paradigm of information theory. In this paper, we introduce an information theoretic measure to quantify social media user intent, and then investigate the corroboration of intent with evolution of the social network and detection of disinformation actors related to COVID-19 discussions on Twitter. Our measurement of user intent utilizes an existing time series analysis technique for estimation of social influence using transfer entropy among the considered users. We have analyzed 4.7 million tweets originating from several countries of interest, during a 5 month period when the arrival of the first dose of COVID vaccinations were announced. Our key findings include evidence that: (i) a significant correspondence between intent and social influence; (ii) ranking over users by intent and social influence is unstable over time with evidence of shifts in the hierarchical structure; and (iii) both user intent and social influence are important when distinguishing disinformation actors from non-disinformation actors.

Gunaratne, Chathika↗
DOE OSTI2021

COVID-19 dynamics across the US: A deep learning study of human mobility and social behavior

This paper presents a deep learning framework for epidemiology system identification from noisy and sparse observations with quantified uncertainty. The proposed approach employs an ensemble of deep neural networks to infer the time-dependent reproduction number of an infectious disease by formulating a tensor-based multi-step loss function that allows us to efficiently calibrate the model on multiple observed trajectories. The method is applied to a mobility and social behavior-based SEIR model of COVID-19 spread. The model is trained on Google and Unacast mobility data spanning a period of 66 days, and is able to yield accurate future forecasts of COVID-19 spread in 203 US counties within a time-window of 15 days. Interestingly, a sensitivity analysis that assesses the importance of different mobility and social behavior parameters reveals that attendance of close places, including workplaces, residential, and retail and recreational locations, has the largest impact on the effective reproduction number. Furthermore, the model enables us to rapidly probe and quantify the effects of government interventions, such as lock-down and re-opening strategies. Taken together, the proposed framework provides a robust workflow for data-driven epidemiology model discovery under uncertainty and produces probabilistic forecasts for the evolution of a pandemic that can judiciously provide information for policy and decision making. All codes and data accompanying this manuscript are available at https://github.com/PredictiveIntelligenceLab/DeepCOVID19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Systematic Screening of COVID-19 Disease Based on Chest CT and RT-PCR for Cancer Patients Undergoing Radiation Therapy in a Coronavirus French Hotspot

Patients with cancer are presumed to be more vulnerable to COVID-19. We evaluated a screening strategy combining chest computed tomography (CT) and reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for patients treated with radiation therapy at our cancer center located in a COVID-19 French hotspot during the first wave of the pandemic.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large Deviations Anomaly Detection (LAD) for collection of multivariate time series data: Applications to COVID-19 data

Time series anomaly detection is frequently used to identify extreme behaviors within a single time series. Identifying extreme trends in relation to a collection of other time series, on the other hand, is frequently of significant interest, such as in public health policy, social justice, and pandemic propagation. Using concepts from large deviations theory , we propose an algorithm that can scale to large collections of time series data. This paper expands on the LAD algorithm presented in Guggilam et al. (2022). The proposed algorithm is an online anomaly detection method for identifying anomalies in a collection of multivariate time series that takes advantage of the algorithm’s ability to scale to high-dimensional data. We show how the proposed Large Deviations Anomaly Detection (LAD) algorithm can be used to identify regions with anomalous trends in COVID-19 cases, deaths, biweekly growth rates, vaccinations, and fatality rates. Several of the observed anomalous trends are associated with regions that have demonstrated poor response to the COVID pandemic.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Identification of a pharmacological approach to reduce ACE2 expression and development of an in vitro COVID-19 viral entry model

Because of rapid emergence and circulation of the SARS-CoV-2 variants, especially Omicron which shows increased transmissibility and resistant to antibodies, there is an urgent need to develop novel therapeutic drugs to treat COVID-19. In this study we developed an in vitro cellular model to explore the regulation of ACE2 expression and its correlation with ACE2-mediated viral entry. We examined ACE2 expression in a variety of human cell lines, some of which are commonly used to study SARS-CoV-2. Using the developed model, we identified a number of inhibitors which reduced ACE2 protein expression. The greatest reduction of ACE2 expression was observed when CK869, an inhibitor of the actin-related protein 2/3 (ARP2/3) complex, was combined with 5-(N-ethyl-N-isopropyl)-amiloride (EIPA), an inhibitor of sodium-hydrogen exchangers (NHEs), after treatment for 24 h. Using pseudotyped lentivirus expressing the SARS-CoV-2 full-length spike protein, we found that ACE2-dependent viral entry was inhibited in CK869 + EIPA-treated Calu-3 and MDA-MB-468 cells. This study provides an in vitro model that can be used for the screening of novel therapeutic candidates that may be warranted for further pre-clinical and clinical studies on COVID-19 countermeasures.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

SARS-CoV-2 RNA in Wastewater Settled Solids Is Associated with COVID-19 Cases in a Large Urban Sewershed

Wastewater-based epidemiology may be useful for informing public health response to viral diseases like COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2. Here, we quantified SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater influent and primary settled solids in two wastewater treatment plants to inform the preanalytical and analytical approaches and to assess whether influent or solids harbored more viral targets. The primary settled solids samples resulted in higher SARS-CoV-2 detection frequencies than the corresponding influent samples. Likewise, SARS-CoV-2 RNA was more readily detected in solids using one-step digital droplet (dd)RT-PCR than with two-step RT-QPCR and two-step ddRT-PCR, likely owing to reduced inhibition with the one-step ddRT-PCR assay. We subsequently analyzed a longitudinal time series of 89 settled solids samples from a single plant for SARS-CoV-2 RNA as well as coronavirus recovery (bovine coronavirus) and fecal strength (pepper mild mottle virus) controls. SARS-CoV-2 RNA targets N1 and N2 concentrations correlated positively and significantly with COVID-19 clinically confirmed case counts in the sewershed. Together, the results demonstrate that measuring SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in settled solids may be a more sensitive approach than measuring SARS-CoV-2 in influent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19: Initial Results From CovidMIP

Many nations responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO 2 , other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We perform a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth System model simulations to assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. Eleven models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 280 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over East Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020-2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID-19-related emission reductions on near-term climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Shaping the Future of Science: COVID‐19 Highlighting the Importance of GeoHealth

Abstract From the heated debates over the airborne transmission of the novel coronavirus to the abrupt Earth system changes caused by the sudden lockdowns, the dire circumstances resulting from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic have brought the field of GeoHealth to the forefront of visibility in science and policy. The pandemic has inadvertently provided an opportunity to study how human response has impacted the Earth system, how the Earth system may impact the pandemic, and the capacity of GeoHealth to inform real‐time policy. The lessons learned throughout our responses to the COVID‐19 pandemic are shaping the future of GeoHealth.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Abrupt emissions reductions during COVID-19 contributed to record summer rainfall in China

Record rainfall and severe flooding struck eastern China in the summer of 2020. The extreme summer rainfall occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, which started in China in early 2020 and spread rapidly across the globe. By disrupting human activities, substantial reductions in anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols might have affected regional precipitation in many ways. Here, we investigate such connections and show that the abrupt emissions reductions during the pandemic strengthened the summer atmospheric convection over eastern China, resulting in a positive sea level pressure anomaly over northwestern Pacific Ocean. The latter enhanced moisture convergence to eastern China and further intensified rainfall in that region. Modeling experiments show that the reduction in aerosols had a stronger impact on precipitation than the decrease of greenhouse gases did. We conclude that through abrupt emissions reductions, the COVID-19 pandemic contributed importantly to the 2020 extreme summer rainfall in eastern China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Antiviral and clinical activity of bamlanivimab in a randomized trial of non-hospitalized adults with COVID-19

Abstract Anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibodies are mainstay COVID-19 therapeutics. Safety, antiviral, and clinical efficacy of bamlanivimab were evaluated in the randomized controlled trial ACTIV-2/A5401. Non-hospitalized adults were randomized 1:1 within 10 days of COVID-19 symptoms to bamlanivimab or blinded-placebo in two dose-cohorts (7000 mg, n = 94; 700 mg, n = 223). No differences in bamlanivimab vs placebo were observed in the primary outcomes: proportion with undetectable nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 RNA at days 3, 7, 14, 21, and 28 (risk ratio = 0.82–1.05 for 7000 mg [ p (overall) = 0.88] and 0.81–1.21 for 700 mg [ p (overall) = 0.49]), time to symptom improvement (median 21 vs 18.5 days [ p = 0.97], 7000 mg; 24 vs 20.5 days [ p = 0.08], 700 mg), or grade 3+ adverse events. However, bamlanivimab was associated with lower day 3 nasopharyngeal viral levels and faster reductions in inflammatory markers and viral decay by modeling. This study provides evidence of faster reductions in nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels but not shorter symptom durations in non-hospitalized adults with early variants of SARS-CoV-2. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04518410.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Swift and extensive Omicron outbreak in China after sudden exit from ‘zero-COVID’ policy

In late 2022, China transitioned from a strict ‘zero-COVID’ policy to rapidly abandoning nearly all interventions and data reporting. This raised great concern about the presumably-rapid but unreported spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in a very large population of very low pre-existing immunity. By modeling a combination of case count and survey data, we show that Omicron spread extremely rapidly, at a rate of 0.42/day (95% credibility interval: [0.35, 0.51]/day), translating to an epidemic doubling time of 1.6 days ([1.6, 2.0] days) after the full exit from zero-COVID on Dec. 7, 2022. Consequently, we estimate that the vast majority of the population (97% [95%, 99%], sensitivity analysis lower limit of 90%) was infected during December, with the nation-wide epidemic peaking on Dec. 23. Overall, our results highlight the extremely high transmissibility of the variant and the importance of proper design of intervention exit strategies to avoid large infection waves.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven optimized control of the COVID-19 epidemics

Optimizing the impact on the economy of control strategies aiming at containing the spread of COVID-19 is a critical challenge. We use daily new case counts of COVID-19 patients reported by local health administrations from different Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) within the US to parametrize a model that well describes the propagation of the disease in each area. We then introduce a time-varying control input that represents the level of social distancing imposed on the population of a given area and solve an optimal control problem with the goal of minimizing the impact of social distancing on the economy in the presence of relevant constraints, such as a desired level of suppression for the epidemics at a terminal time. We find that with the exception of the initial time and of the final time, the optimal control input is well approximated by a constant, specific to each area, which contrasts with the implemented system of reopening ‘in phases’. For all the areas considered, this optimal level corresponds to stricter social distancing than the level estimated from data. Proper selection of the time period for application of the control action optimally is important: depending on the particular MSA this period should be either short or long or intermediate. We also consider the case that the transmissibility increases in time (due e.g. to increasingly colder weather), for which we find that the optimal control solution yields progressively stricter measures of social distancing. We finally compute the optimal control solution for a model modified to incorporate the effects of vaccinations on the population and we see that depending on a number of factors, social distancing measures could be optimally reduced during the period over which vaccines are administered to the population.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Budget constrained machine learning for early prediction of adverse outcomes for COVID-19 patients

Abstract The combination of machine learning (ML) and electronic health records (EHR) data may be able to improve outcomes of hospitalized COVID-19 patients through improved risk stratification and patient outcome prediction. However, in resource constrained environments the clinical utility of such data-driven predictive tools may be limited by the cost or unavailability of certain laboratory tests. We leveraged EHR data to develop an ML-based tool for predicting adverse outcomes that optimizes clinical utility under a given cost structure. We further gained insights into the decision-making process of the ML models through an explainable AI tool. This cohort study was performed using deidentified EHR data from COVID-19 patients from ProMedica Health System in northwest Ohio and southeastern Michigan. We tested the performance of various ML approaches for predicting either increasing ventilatory support or mortality. We performed post hoc analysis to obtain optimal feature sets under various budget constraints. We demonstrate that it is possible to achieve a significant reduction in cost at the expense of a small reduction in predictive performance. For example, when predicting ventilation, it is possible to achieve a 43% reduction in cost with only a 3% reduction in performance. Similarly, when predicting mortality, it is possible to achieve a 50% reduction in cost with only a 1% reduction in performance. This study presents a quick, accurate, and cost-effective method to evaluate risk of deterioration for patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of clinical evaluation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

The cardiac molecular setting of metabolic syndrome in pigs reveals disease susceptibility and suggests mechanisms that exacerbate COVID-19 outcomes in patients

Abstract Although metabolic syndrome (MetS) is linked to an elevated risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), the cardiac-specific risk mechanism is unknown. Obesity, hypertension, and diabetes (all MetS components) are the most common form of CVD and represent risk factors for worse COVID-19 outcomes compared to their non MetS peers. Here, we use obese Yorkshire pigs as a highly relevant animal model of human MetS, where pigs develop the hallmarks of human MetS and reproducibly mimics the myocardial pathophysiology in patients. Myocardium-specific mass spectroscopy-derived metabolomics, proteomics, and transcriptomics enabled the identity and quality of proteins and metabolites to be investigated in the myocardium to greater depth. Myocardium-specific deregulation of pro-inflammatory markers, propensity for arterial thrombosis, and platelet aggregation was revealed by computational analysis of differentially enriched pathways between MetS and control animals. While key components of the complement pathway and the immune response to viruses are under expressed, key N6-methyladenosin RNA methylation enzymes are largely overexpressed in MetS. Blood tests do not capture the entirety of metabolic changes that the myocardium undergoes, making this analysis of greater value than blood component analysis alone. Our findings create data associations to further characterize the MetS myocardium and disease vulnerability, emphasize the need for a multimodal therapeutic approach, and suggests a mechanism for observed worse outcomes in MetS patients with COVID-19 comorbidity.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating efficacy of indoor non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 outbreaks with a coupled spatial-SIR agent-based simulation framework

Contagious respiratory diseases, such as COVID-19, depend on sufficiently prolonged exposures for the successful transmission of the underlying pathogen. It is important that organizations evaluate the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions aimed at mitigating viral transmission among their personnel. We have developed a operational risk assessment simulation framework that couples a spatial agent-based model of movement with an agent-based SIR model to assess the relative risks of different intervention strategies. By applying our model on MIT’s Stata center, we assess the impacts of three possible dimensions of intervention: one-way vs unrestricted movement, population size allowed onsite, and frequency of leaving designated work location for breaks. We find that there is no significant impact made by one-way movement restrictions over unrestricted movement. Instead, we find that reducing the frequency at which individuals leave their workstations combined with lowering the number of individuals admitted below the current recommendations lowers the likelihood of highly connected individuals within the contact networks that emerge, which in turn lowers the overall risk of infection. We discover three classes of possible interventions based on their epidemiological effects. By assuming a direct relationship between data on secondary attack rates and transmissibility in the agent-based SIR model, we compare relative infection risk of four respiratory illnesses, MERS, SARS, COVID-19, and Measles, within the simulated area, and recommend appropriate intervention guidelines.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inferring the spread of COVID-19: the role of time-varying reporting rate in epidemiological modelling

The role of epidemiological models is crucial for informing public health officials during a public health emergency, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, traditional epidemiological models fail to capture the time-varying effects of mitigation strategies and do not account for under-reporting of active cases, thus introducing bias in the estimation of model parameters. To infer more accurate parameter estimates and to reduce the uncertainty of these estimates, we extend the SIR and SEIR epidemiological models with two time-varying parameters that capture the transmission rate and the rate at which active cases are reported to health officials. Using two real data sets of COVID-19 cases, we perform Bayesian inference via our SIR and SEIR models with time-varying transmission and reporting rates and via their standard counterparts with constant rates; our approach provides parameter estimates with more realistic interpretation, and 1-week ahead predictions with reduced uncertainty. Furthermore, we find consistent under-reporting in the number of active cases in the data that we consider, suggesting that the initial phase of the pandemic was more widespread than previously reported.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Employing Technology to Enable Remote Research Charrettes as a Method for Engaging Industry and Uncovering Best Practices: A Novel Approach for a Post-COVID-19 World

Methods to collect data in construction engineering and management (CEM) research are evolving, informed by recent technological advancements. One such method is research charrettes that allow effective interactions and knowledge sharing between expert industry practitioners and academic researchers, all colocated in a single venue, enabling rich data collection and live communication. A pivot point in technological evolution occurred with the COVID-19 pandemic, forcing a global shift to remote work. Hence, planned in-person research charrettes had to shift to remote sessions, relying on virtual conferencing platforms and online data collection mechanisms. Technology-enabled charrettes have allowed the authors to collect significantly richer data sets and ensure a more diverse representation of participants, while saving tremendous amounts of time. With the continuing emergence of technological applications, the world might not go back to functioning fully in person. The authors believe remote research charrettes (RRCs) will still be used in a post-COVID-19 world because of their superior performance. This paper builds on a previous publication that described traditional research charrettes as a method to enhance CEM research a decade ago; it offers a significantly updated and improved RRC method based on the knowledge gained from transitioning a dozen in-person charrettes into RRCs. It also presents performance comparisons between RRCs and traditional charrettes by quantifying metrics indicating how RRCs are more time-efficient and cost-saving, harness more participants from more diverse locations, and enable the collection of richer data sets and four times more industry comments and expert feedback. This paper also provides guidance on the integration of technology with traditional research charrettes, hence contributing to the CEM body of knowledge.

42 ENGINEERING↗