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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Thermal and mechanical performance of gypsum composites containing fly ash cenosphere encapsulated phase change materials

Utilizing phase change materials (PCMs) within construction materials improves the thermal energy storage capabilities in the built environment. Notably, integrating PCMs into drywalls presents a promising avenue to reduce building energy use. However, incorporating PCMs into drywalls poses challenges, particularly reduced mechanical properties and workability limitations as it can adversely affect the hardening and cohesiveness of gypsum composites. To address these challenges, this study explores a novel strategy to incorporate PCMs into gypsum composites through fly ash cenosphere-encapsulated PCM, namely CenoPCM, aiming to enhance the mechanical properties and thermal conductivity over existing commercial counterparts. An experimental program was conducted to study the impact of the inclusion of CenoPCM on the mechanical and thermal performance of gypsum composites, and the results were compared to those of commercially available polymerencapsulated PCM benchmark (Micronal). The findings highlighted that PCM-charged samples exhibited up to 95.90 J/g (CenoPCM) of latent heat with 70 % CenoPCM loading. The results of mechanical tests also showed that CenoPCM outperformed its polymer-encapsulated counterpart, achieving 55 % higher mechanical strength on average. Here, this improvement is attributed to the rigid shell of fly ash cenosphere (FAC) serving as a PCM carrier, providing a skeleton-like structure to gypsum composites for higher load-bearing capacity. Additionally, hotbox tests demonstrated that the CenoPCM-charged wall panels yielded a 20 % higher thermal conductivity and a 22 % increased time lag compared to Micronal PCM-charged panels, indicating its potential to shift the peak load in buildings.

Ceno PCM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Grid Value Analysis of Geothermal Systems for End-Use Applications

Fuel based end-uses for residential, commercial, and industrial consumers require a technology change to achieve economy-wide decarbonization. Space heating accounts for 42% of residential and 32% of commercial energy demand, much of which is currently met through carbon emitting fuels. Industrial energy use is heavily fuel based with electricity currently representing 13% of energy demand. Geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) and geothermal direct use can eliminate the need for CO2 emitting and simultaneously allow for more efficient electrification of end uses. Past work has assessed the impact on total energy costs and generation investments but did not identify specific grid services benefited. Energy usage in residential and commercial structures was assessed by leveraging data from ComStock and ResStock models. These models utilize housing attributes, occupancy patterns, weather data, and sophisticated energy simulations to generate hourly load profiles for individual buildings identified by unique IDs associated with their locations. Industrial sector energy use was evaluated using information from the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) as well as plant utilization data from the US Census to estimate hourly plant operations. The change in end-use demand for electricity, natural gas, and other fuels was calculated for different technologies that could meet this need. Using the ReEDS capacity expansion model, we produce regional price profiles that capture the grid benefit associated with the amount and timing of energy shifts in the power system from the adoption of geothermal systems relative to other technologies that could meet space heating, space cooling, and process heat requirements. We find that geothermal systems for meeting end-use demand add value to the energy system. In buildings where geothermal systems increase grid costs, these values are offset by reduced fuel costs and benefits to externalities, including emissions and health impacts.

decarbonization↗
DOE OSTI2024

Powering Data Centers with Clean Energy: A Techno-Economic Case Study of Nuclear and Renewable Energy Dependability

Rising data demands from artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) generating images, videos, and text have prompted increased need for larger and more robust data centers in the United States. Major companies interested in these larger data centers face the choice of linking them to existing regional grids, building stand-alone power supplies onsite, or a combination of both. The request, review, and approval process for new transmission lines to grids in the United States, however, has grown in recent years to times spans rivaling those of new construction for nuclear power plants. Building an islanded power supply for each data center is therefore becoming a prominent option. In this case study, several technologies are modeled in techno-economic simulations for long-term system costs subject to fixed electricity demand from a singular data center. A 250 MWe data center is assumed with additional 50 MWe for resiliency. Techno-economic simulations are conducted using the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) software, which is a part of the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite. Technologies considered include solar, wind, lithium-ion batteries, and several types of nuclear reactors: large-scale reactors, small modular reactors, and microreactors. A low- and high-cost estimate for each technology is assumed to develop a range of expected economic performance. Low-cost estimates included several clean energy production tax credits. Different combinations of renewable energy generators with nuclear reactors are considered, ranging from a fully renewable-powered data center to a fully nuclear-powered data center. Historic time series of wind and solar availability from the Texas grid are used to train a reduced order model; this model then generates unique time series with similar characteristics of the training dataset. Multiple scenarios of weather and subsequent operations are simulated for each renewable-nuclear combination to determine total costs throughout the project lifetime. Fully renewable-powered configurations required large amounts of installed capacity (GW scale) in the simulations to meet the fixed demand of the data center. This is due to some scenarios in the historical dataset which captured low-wind and low-solar days, requiring over-building of these technologies as well as batteries to compensate for the low amounts of electricity generation. Fully nuclear-powered configurations outperformed the fully renewable and mixed renewable-nuclear configurations in terms of cost, with ranges between $1B and $10B in 2023 USDs compared to $40B+ for fully renewable configurations. Of the nuclear technologies, small modular reactors performed better economically than large-scale nuclear models due to lower projected capital costs, and both performed better than the microreactor models. These results demonstrate the applicability of firm, dispatchable electricity resources from baseload generators like nuclear power plants for operating facilities that run at constant power without daily variability.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Physiological Controls on Carbon Fluxes and Biomass Production in Miscanthus: Insights From a Process‐Based Agroecosystem Model

Biomass crops serve as essential feedstocks for renewable energy and bioproducts and play a critical role in achieving lower emissions in the transportation sector. However, dedicated perennial biomass crops such as Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus) remain underrepresented in process-based agroecosystem models, limiting robust evaluation of their economic and environmental performance. In this study, we developed a data-constrained representation of the sterile triploid Miscanthus (IL clone) within the process-based model ecosys, integrating global sensitivity analysis, ensemble simulation, and parameter calibration. Planting, harvesting, and fertilization practices consistent with field management were incorporated, and phenology was constrained using PhenoCam-derived Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) data. Using the Morris global sensitivity analysis method, we identified 11 key physiological parameters governing plant carbon, water, and nutrient relations, particularly processes associated with CO 2 assimilation. We then conducted ensemble simulations by perturbing these parameters and calibrated the model against eddy covariance fluxes and field-measured biomass. Building on the calibrated operating state, parameter-response analyses show that different photosynthetic processes influence productivity in different ways. Protein allocation determines whether productivity increases toward a higher level, whereas electron transport capacity controls additional gains once protein allocation approaches saturation. These findings demonstrate that parameter importance depends on physiological context and on which photosynthetic processes remain limiting. Calibration and validation against observations show that ecosys can reliably reproduce carbon and water fluxes, as well as both above- and belowground biomass, with post-calibration GPP R 2 improving from 0.67 to 0.95 during the calibration period and remaining high during validation (R 2 = 0.95). These results provide a mechanistic foundation for regional simulations and sustainable bioenergy assessments.

ecosys↗
DOE OSTI2026

Supply Chain for Photovoltaics in the United States: 2024 in Review

Solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage system (BESS) technologies are two immediately available options for meeting U.S. electricity demands, which are increasing due to expansion of loads from end uses including data centers, buildings, vehicles, and factories. Globally, PV and BESS supply chains are dominated by products manufactured in China and elsewhere by Chinese companies. However, U.S. PV and BESS manufacturing have recently grown, with some capacity in each step of the PV supply chain, albeit not enough to currently meet demand with domestic manufacturing alone. This study analyzes U.S. PV supply chains and costs in 2024, for the crystalline silicon and cadmium telluride module supply chains. The full report additionally addresses the PV balance of system, inverter and BESS supply chains. The study concludes with an analysis of technology installation trends, government support for domestic manufacturing, manufacturing jobs, and the domestic content of PV systems installed in the United States in 2024.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors in Africa

This report assesses the feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors, including large-scale plants, advanced small modular reactors (SMRs), and microreactors, in African countries. Case studies focus on South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria, examining nuclear energy’s role in Africa’s rapidly evolving energy landscape, marked by fast-growing demand, significant electricity access gaps, increasing renewable penetration, and strong policy commitments to industrialization and energy security. Several U.S. reactor technologies and designs are considered based on their development status and readiness for deployment. The analysis finds that nuclear power can provide reliable, clean baseload and flexible generation, as well as high-temperature process heat for desalination, hydrogen production, and industrial applications. However, suitability is highly country-specific, depending on grid size and stability, transmission capacity, cooling water availability, regulatory readiness, and fuel supply chains. Near-term deployment opportunities are strongest for light-water reactors (such as NuScale, BWRX-300, AP300, and SMR-300) that use low-enriched uranium and build on proven technology. More advanced concepts, including gas-cooled, sodium-cooled, molten-salt cooled reactors, and microreactors, will likely be relevant for African deployment in the 2030s or later, contingent on demonstration projects, high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel availability, and mature international licensing frameworks. Economic analysis shows that SMRs are capital-intensive, with projected overnight costs for 300 MWe units in 2025 ranging from approximately 1.4 to 2.6 billion USD per module. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is highly sensitive to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Given typically higher financing costs and utility balance-sheet weaknesses in many African countries, bankable project structures will require sovereign guarantees, robust offtake arrangements, and layered financing from export credit agencies, development finance institutions, and vendor nations. Comparisons with recent large nuclear projects in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt underscore the central role of state-backed loans, long tenors, and concessional terms. Country case studies illustrate a spectrum of readiness and opportunity. South Africa operates two 920 MWe pressurized light water reactors (totaling 1,840 MWe) at Koeberg and has the most mature regulatory and industrial base, positioning it as a prime candidate for both large reactors and SMRs to replace coal, support desalination, and anchor industrial hubs. Egypt is constructing four VVER-1200 units at El Dabaa with strong state leadership and could later complement this fleet with SMRs for coastal and industrial applications. Kenya and Ghana are advancing through IAEA Milestones with growing institutional capacity and clear interest in SMRs that match their smaller grids and industrialization plans. Nigeria has the largest demand potential but faces acute constraints in grid reliability, project bankability, and regulatory capacity; targeted deployments of large reactors and SMRs near coastal or industrial sites could have high impact if accompanied by major grid upgrades and institutional reforms. The report identifies cross-cutting challenges such as financing, political continuity, public acceptance, nonproliferation and security, waste and back-end management, regulatory capacity, grid adequacy, and long deployment timelines for first-of-a-kind designs, and ANL/NSE-26/3 ii proposes broad directions for resolution. These include stronger multifaceted financing for nuclear, long-term national energy strategies that transcend electoral cycles, proactive stakeholder engagement, strengthened regional and national regulators, and systematic workforce development through centers of excellence and expanded training. The United States should develop partnerships with African countries and offer end-to-end nuclear package similar to those used effectively by competitors: coordinated project development, state-backed financing, long-term fuel services, and durable in-country support through regional offices and sustained workforce/regulatory training. With timely planning, sustained political commitment, and appropriate financing and institutional support, nuclear energy, both large reactors and advanced SMRs, can become a meaningful, though not dominant, pillar of Africa’s future power mix, enhancing energy security, enabling industrial growth, and supporting climate goals.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sharing the Sun: Community Solar Deployment and Subscriptions (As of January 2026)

The community solar market analysis presented here is based primarily on data collected through Sharing the Sun, an initiative of the National Community Solar Partnership+ (NCSP+). Sharing the Sun data collection and analysis are conducted by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) as part of its support for implementation of NCSP+. NLR first released a dataset of community solar projects in 2018 and updates it biannually. The January 2026 dataset, data collection methodology, and all the previous datasets are available from NLR's Data Catalog: https://data.nlr.gov/submissions/244. The dataset presents project-level information including location, capacity, operating utility, and year of interconnection. The dataset is created from multiple data sources such as utility data, public utility commissions, project developer websites, media releases, primary data collection by NLR, and data provided by developers under nondisclosure agreements. This presentation builds on a previous analysis of the community solar project dataset, Sharing the Sun: Community Solar Deployment and Subscriptions (as of June 2024). Dr. Gabriel Chan and his team at the University of Minnesota contribute to this effort. NCSP+ is led and funded by U.S. Department of Energy's Integrated Energy Systems Office (IESO).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

EV Charging Infrastructure Energization An Overview of Approaches for Simplifying and Accelerating Timelines to Processing EV Charging Load Service Requests

The United States has seen significant growth in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, leading to increased demand for EV charging infrastructure. Over the past decade, EV charging infrastructure site developers, site hosts, and electric distribution utilities have navigated the process to integrate chargers onto the electric grid. Site developers and site hosts have raised the alarm that the integration process for high-powered EV charging projects does not meet the needs of the EV market for timeliness or cost. High-powered charging stations typically require a load service request or an agreement with the local utility to connect to the grid. The process of energizing a new high-powered charging site can be complex and time-consuming, often taking up to 2 years. This timeline is the result of current utility energization processes having been designed for construction projects that take longer to build (i.e., buildings). The specific challenges stem from various factors, including compartmentalization in application processes, the integration of EV charging process approvals with other distributed energy resources (DERs), and the need to ensure grid reliability. The energization process needs to evolve to meet the growing demand for high-powered EV charging. This white paper compiles information gathered through various conversations with key stakeholders, including utilities, utility regulators, EV charging operators, site developers, and authorities having jurisdiction (AHJ) as well as through an extensive literature review. This document identifies the challenges and provides potential solutions to streamline the process of connecting EV charging infrastructure to the power grid in the United States, serving as a starting point for future conversations around these solutions. The solutions noted in this white paper require collaborative efforts among utilities, regulators, and EV charging infrastructure developers to streamline the grid connection process for EV charging infrastructure. They are broadly organized into four areas: 1. Increase data access and transparency: Develop automated load service request tools, integrate hosting capacity and load service request analyses, incorporate EV adoption forecasts, and provide transparency on the processing queue. 2. Improve energization processes and timing: Create fast-track options based on prescreening criteria, provide flexibility or phased approvals in the load service request/interconnection process, build internal knowledge within utilities about EV charging technologies, and provide standardized workforce training. 3. Promote economic efficiency: Right size distribution components to accurately reflect the load requirements of EV charging infrastructure, make proactive investments in grid infrastructure based on EV adoption forecasts and growth projections, and consider energy equity and environmental justice factors such as equitable access to EV charging when planning infrastructure. 4. Improve grid reliability and resilience: Use load management/power control systems (PCS) at EV charging stations, adopt and implement harmonized standards for communication protocols and information models between the EV charging and grid control infrastructure, and address cybersecurity considerations by implementing robust security measures and standards for EV charging infrastructure—with particular emphasis on clarifying the security requirements for the interface to the grid. The objective of the solutions proposed in this white paper is to accelerate the timeline and decrease costs associated with connecting EV charging infrastructure to the grid. Electric utilities, utility regulators, EV charging infrastructure developers, and site hosts will first need to understand which solutions are available in their service territory, and if warranted, which combination of solutions would support their specific needs. Through the successful implementations of solutions at scale detailed here, industry will demonstrate a new and innovative ecosystem where timely deployment and energization of EV charging infrastructure with greater grid resiliency and reliability is a reality.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

3D printing of architected sulfur cathodes with dual-site atomic catalysts for accelerated polysulfide kinetics and Li-ion transport in high areal-loading lithium–sulfur batteries

The practical deployment of lithium–sulfur batteries (LSBs) is hindered by fundamental limitations in conventional slurry-cast cathodes, including poor sulfur utilization, sluggish ion transport, and low areal capacity, particularly in thick electrodes required for high energy density. To address these challenges, we present direct ink writing (DIW) as an additive manufacturing strategy to fabricate advanced current-collector-free, 3D-printed sulfur cathodes (3DP S@CoNi-DSACs/NC) with hierarchically porous architectures that enhance lithium-ion diffusion, promote electrolyte penetration, and reduce interfacial resistance. The synergistic effects of Co/Ni dual-atom sites accelerate redox kinetics and mitigate polysulfide shuttling. As a result, the optimized 3DP cathode with a sulfur loading of 5.4 mg cm −2 demonstrated excellent rate capability, delivering a high reversible capacity of 1041.4 mAh g −1 at 1C with 85.5% capacity retention after 1000 cycles, significantly outperforming its cast counterpart. Remarkably, even at a higher sulfur loading of 8.1 mg cm −2 , the 3DP cathode maintains outstanding performance, achieving a discharge capacity of 1538.4 mAh g −1 and an areal capacity of 12.5 mAh cm −2 at 0.1C. This study not only demonstrates the functional integration of catalytically active materials into 3D printable sulfur cathode architectures but also offers a scalable and transformative platform for building high-performance LSBs beyond conventional electrode manufacturing methods.

3D electrode↗
DOE OSTI2026

Carbon Capture Pilot at Dry Fork Power Station (Final Technical Report)

The objective of this project was to design, seek necessary approvals, build and operate a large-scale pilot sorbent-based post combustion carbon capture system (CCS) at a coal fired power generation facility. TDA’s CCS uses a highly stable, low-cost, high-capacity physical adsorbent to effectively remove CO 2 via a combination vacuum and concentration swing adsorption (VCSA) process. The CCS is integrated with the power plant flue gas exhaust, which is rich in CO 2 (~13% vol. CO 2 ) and removes more than 90% of the plant’s overall carbon emissions.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

Innovative Advanced Hydrogen Mobile Fueler (Final Technical Report)

The US Department of Energy (DOE) funded a project to design, develop, deploy and analyze the economic viability of an innovative Advanced Hydrogen Mobile Fueler (AHMF). As part of the design activity the project team defined specifications based upon vehicle requirements and compliance with specific fueling performance criteria. The AHMF was originally designed to fuel 10-20 fuel cell vehicles (FCV) per day, consistent with the requirements of the H70 fueling category. The AHMF is able to operate without remote power connections, is modular for easy transport and deployment, and can provide expanded daily capacity and multi-day operations using delivered gaseous hydrogen. Toward the end of the project, due to request from the hydrogen industry and some necessary modifications of the AHMF, the system is now modified to fuel heavy duty vehicles. The project was conducted over two primary phases, each including several key tasks, subtasks, and project milestones. Phase 1 involved the design, development, and construction of the AHMF, moving from a conceptual design through to completion of assembly and testing. In addition to reviewing several different approaches, the team chose to take a conventional station design and modify it for mobile fueling. There were several innovative components included in the design. The high pressure storage was the first to achieve a US Department of Energy (DOE) Special Permit (SP 20391) to transport high pressure hydrogen (95 MPa) in a composite cylinder. The second novel system was a liquid nitrogen (LIN) cooling system with a compact heat exchanger. Without this change, the cooling system would not be able to fit into the AHMF. Phase 2 demonstrated the AHMF by fueling fuel cell buses at a fleet in Pomona, CA. The site was chosen because a temporary fueling solution was required while a fixed station was being installed. The existing permits for the fixed station and non-public access also was a determining factor. Over two months, the buses were fueled 320 times with over 5000 kg of hydrogen from tube trailers. Existing shore power was used, and the average electrical efficiency was 0.13 kWh/kg. The average liquid nitrogen (LIN) consumption was 90.68 scf/kg. The fueling and consumption data was provided to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for analysis. An economic analysis was performed and will be provided in a separate report. The project was successful, but not without challenges and lessons learned. The DOT special permit led the way for the use of high pressure, composite cylinders and is being by multiple other systems and applications. The pandemic along with time for the DOT special permit approval delayed the project for years. The team also believes that hydrogen mobile fueling has a use for the industry, especially during this upcoming phase of expansion. However, it does have its limitations due to high cost to build and operate, and the same permitting challenges as a fixed station. A fully capable system at the speeds and pressures of the AHMF may not be necessary for most applications and would help reduce the cost and increase storage capacity. The on-board generator can be easily replaced with shore power or the wide range of power generation solutions in the marketplace. One of the major results of the project was the development of new code language in National Fire Protection Agency (NFPA) 2 and the International Fire Code (IFC) for on-demand mobile fueling. This will provide guidance for Authorities Having Jurisdiction (AHJ) and user on how to permit temporary fueling sites across the nation.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

International Applications for Floating Solar PV (FPV) [Slides]

Floating solar is a comparatively new concept. Floating solar is about to form a third pillar in the market for solar energy next to ground mounted and rooftop solar. The Asia-Pacific region already dominates the fast-emerging market in floating solar PV (FPV), and it looks set to build on that position as more nations get on board and costs fall. Asia-Pacific is set to increase its market share from 74% in 2020 to 87% in 2026 in terms of global installed FPV capacity. However, since floating solar systems are still a new application, there is a lack of information on its performance, cost, technical complexity, and operations and maintenance (O&M). This seminar series seeks to partially remedy that through presenting case studies that highlight the benefits, challenges, and applications of FPV in South and Southeast Asia.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A noncollinear density functional theory ansatz for the phononic and thermodynamic properties of α -Pu

Plutonium's phase diagram is host to complex structures and interactions that make the description of its ground state properties elusive. Using all-electron density functional theory calculations, we study the thermodynamic properties of α-Pu. To do this, we build on recent work in the literature by introducing a novel noncollinear magnetic ansatz for α-Pu's ground state. We show that the noncollinear ansatz improves the description of the experimental phonon density of states, heat capacity, and thermal expansion over previous results obtained with a collinear ansatz. Here, despite lacking a bond-equivalent picture of the bonding, these new results for α-Pu, along with recent results on δ-Pu, demonstrate the efficacy of noncollinear ansatzes for the description of plutonium.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dual Purpose – Heating & Cooling – Thermal Battery for Flexible and Energy-Efficient Heat Pump Systems

The integration of heat pumps with thermal energy storage (HP-TES) systems is gaining attention as a viable solution for managing peak building demand driven by immense cooling and heating loads. With growing reliance on renewable energy sources, thermal energy storage offers an excellent opportunity to mitigate mismatches in thermal load between energy supply and demand. The use of phase-change material (PCM) TES is especially promising, as PCMs offer significant latent energy storage capacity with smaller temperature glides in smaller volumes compared to other TES technologies. However, challenges arise because current HP-TES architectures can load-shift only cooling or heating, not both, requiring two systems and thus doubling cost, weight, and footprint. Furthermore, current research efforts lack specific tools and techniques to advance integrated systems from concept design to end-user application, focusing on only discharge performance. To address these challenges, this research proposes a dual-mode (heating and cooling) integrated HP-TES system that uses room-temperature PCM-TES as a high-temperature heat source in heating mode and a low-temperature heat sink in cooling mode, thereby reducing temperature lifts and compressor power. Design criteria for PCM-TES heat exchangers were developed, balancing thermal-hydraulic performance with practical constraints such as available building space and weight requirements along with PCM selection considerations such as shipping conditions, moisture exposure, and number of available cycles. A detailed transient model for HP-TES systems was developed to enable rapid annual performance assessments in any US climate zone.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Framework for Assessing Economic and Environmental Trade-offs of Internalized Emission Costs in ERCOT Grid Planning

The power grid is on the cusp of a massive transition driven by three major areas: 1) the growth in demand for electricity, 2) efforts to decarbonize the United States economy, and 3) a desire to mitigate social disparities from the impact of electricity generation on local populations. However, most studies of the electricity sector do not include equity impacts in their models. This study seeks to do so by developing a comprehensive and generalizable model tailored to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid, designed to incorporate the equity impacts of electricity generation in a decarbonized and resilient framework. To integrate equity into our research, we incorporate environmental externalities into our capacity expansion model of ERCOT. Specifically, we factor in intermediate-level local marginal damages of precursor pollutants (NH3, NOx, primary PM2.5, SO2, and VOC) and global pollutant CO2 into the cost of generating electricity. We do this by taking into account county population, county ambient pollution concentration, and generator emission rates. Leveraging open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX we construct a county-level model to account for these costs. We integrate these marginal damages into the variable operations and maintenance costs of generators, for both existing and potential future builds. This study’s findings suggest that the value of a dynamic social cost of carbon (SSC) will cover criteria pollutant marginal damages within the ERCOT grid and solar and wind is expected to increase out to 2035. Key metrics evaluated within this research include fuel mix distribution across technologies, transmission and grid infrastructure costs, CO2 emissions, local pollutants marginal damages, and the variation in generation capacity built by the model. These results and framework can be used to support grid decisions that explicitly include distributional and procedural equity within a decarbonized and sustainable grid framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward a life cycle approach for classifying the toxicity of refrigerants

Refrigeration and air conditioning currently account for ~20% of the total electricity consumption in buildings around the world (IEA, 2018). Over the next three decades, as global temperatures are projected to increase, urbanization and economic growth will lead to an increased demand for refrigeration and cooling. While technological advances have led to increased cooling capacity and safer refrigerants over the years, emissions from refrigeration systems can affect the environment by contributing to greenhouse gas emissions or by depleting the ozone layer, depending on the gas emitted. Further, because of ongoing and pending policy and regulatory changes to avert ozone depletion and global climate change, there is an increasing focus on adopting compounds that are efficient at cooling while also reducing emissions and other adverse environmental impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Electrified Vehicle Options in Drayage Fleets

The electrification of drayage fleets offers potential economic and operational benefits, but the financial viability of electrified vehicles remains sensitive to battery cost, energy price, and fleet usage patterns. While total cost of ownership (TCO) is a useful benchmark, fleet operators and investors are equally concerned with investment performance metrics such as payback period (PB) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), which better reflect financial risks and investment return timelines. This study develops a unified techno-economic framework that jointly evaluates TCO, PB, and IRR to determine when electrified trucks become cost-effective alternatives to diesel trucks. Building on a previously developed cost modeling tool and using real-world telematics data from a Class 8 drayage fleet at the Port of Savannah, the analysis incorporates projected battery cost trajectories, electricity and diesel price trends, vehicle efficiency improvements, and multiple battery capacities. Parameter ranges reflect widely cited projections and observed drayage-duty-cycle variability. A surrogate-modeling method approximates economic performance across thousands of battery cost–electricity price combinations, enabling high-resolution identification of conditions that achieve TCO parity, acceptable PB thresholds, and target IRR levels. Additionally, the study estimates the evolving share of the fleet that can feasibly electrify over time under multiple economic metrics. This integrated framework offers a novel, data-driven approach to inform risk-aware decision-making for fleet electrification and supports investment planning under evolving cost and operational conditions.

Sun, Ruixiao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000341768676)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from analytic models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as technology and infrastructure deployment, to global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require the designers of these models to trade off between coverage and resolution. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses but at a relatively coarse level of resolution. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers by endogenously projecting prices for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This global model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy released by the White House in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide decarbonization discussions and strategy development for decades. Other models instead focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects capacity expansion with an emphasis on integration of variable renewable energy into the grid of the future. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices in adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the United States. These global and sector-specific modeling approaches can complement each other. The global approach ensures consistent, endogenous energy pricing and resource allocation, which can substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios, while the sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and tradeoffs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and discusses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗