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At least 163 records · Page 9

Synergies and trade-offs between storage, transmission, and sector coupling in high renewable energy systems

Energy storage, transmission, and sector coupling are some prominent flexibility solutions to support variable renewable energy (VRE) integration. However, investment cost uncertainties and public acceptance could hamper the deployment of these flexibility solutions. This raises questions about the development and cost-effectiveness of future energy systems, especially on how the dependence on local and cross-border solutions of flexibility would evolve if the uptake of these solutions is restricted. In this context, this paper identifies the synergies among flexibility options under restrictions on transmission expansion or increased costs of energy storage. It contributes to determining whether investments in energy storage and/or transmission expansion offer the least-cost transition and investigates the impact of sector coupling on these solutions. A long-term energy system planning and optimisation model towards 2050 is developed using the open-source energy system optimisation tool Balmorel, and a case study of the countries surrounding the Baltic Sea and the North Sea is established. Five cases with restrictions imposed on transmission expansion and higher energy storage technology costs are analysed at different levels of sector coupling. The results highlight the importance of transmission expansion at all levels of sector coupling. As the level of sector coupling increases, uncertainties around the cost of energy storage drive the least-cost pathways. Optimal investment solutions are found to have a mix of transmission and energy storage in capacity expansion at all levels of sector coupling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Thermomechanical phenomena in high speed rubbing

An analytical approach is presented for the modeling of the thermomechanical interactions which occur in high speed sliding situations. These sliding contact problems which are characterized by active and interrelated thermal and mechanical phenomena could be called 'rub energetics' problems. Analytical models were developed to simulate two different rub situations: high energy braking of disk brakes and high speed rubs of gas path seals in turbine engines. The models proved to be particularly useful in predicting the severe temperatures and deformations near hot contact patches on the rubbing surfaces. The size of the hot patches is generally determined by normal load and the properties of the contacting materials. Temperatures at the contact patches can approach the melting point of the materials, especially at high sliding velocities. These high temperatures can lead to large amounts of near-surface deformation and high wear rates. Decreased contact temperatures can result from using materials with increased thermal conductivity and increased heat capacity or choosing mechanical properties (decreased stiffness, yield stress or coefficient of thermal expansion) which give larger hot spot size.

Kennedy, F. E.

Electra: A Modular-Based Expansion of NASA's Supercomputing Capability

NASA has increasingly relied on high-performance computing (HPC) re- sources for computational modeling, simulation, and data analysis to meet the science and engineering goals of its missions in space exploration, aeronautics, and Earth and space science. The NASA Advanced Supercomputing (NAS) Division at Ames Research Center in Silicon Valley, Calif., hosts NASA’s premier supercomputing resources, integral to achieving and enhancing the success of the agency’s missions. NAS provides a balanced environment, funded under the High-End Computing Capability (HECC) project, comprised of world-class supercomputers, including its flagship distributed-memory cluster, Pleiades; high-speed networking; and massive data storage facilities, along with multi-disciplinary support teams for user support, code porting and optimization, and large-scale data analysis and scientific visualization. However, as scientists have increased the fidelity of their simulations and engineers are conducting larger parameter-space studies, the requirements for supercomputing resources have been growing by leaps and bounds. With the facility housing the HECC systems reaching its power and cooling capacity, NAS undertook a prototype project to investigate an alternative approach for housing supercomputers. Modular supercomputing, or container-based computing, is an innovative concept for expanding NASA’s HPC capabilities. With modular supercomputing, additional containers—similar to portable storage pods—can be connected together as needed to accommodate the agency’s ever-increasing demand for computing resources. In addition, taking advantage of the local weather permits the use of cooling technologies that would additionally save energy and reduce annual water usage. The first stage of NASA’s Modular Supercomputing Facility (MSF) prototype, which resulted in a 1,000 square-foot module on a concrete pad with room for 16 compute racks, was completed in Fall 2016 and an SGI (now HPE) computer system, named Electra, was deployed there in early 2017. Cooling is performed via an evaporative system built into the module, and preliminary experience shows a Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) measurement of 1.03. Electra achieved over a petaflop on the LINPACK benchmark, sufficient to rank number 96 on the November 2016 TOP500 list [14]. The system consists of 1,152 InfiniBand-connected Intel Xeon Broadwell-based nodes. Its users access their files on a facility-wide file system shared by all HECC compute assets via Mellanox MetroX InfiniBand extenders, which connect the Electra fabric to Lustre routers in the primary facility over fiber-optic links about 900 feet long. The MSF prototype has exceeded expectations and is serving as a blueprint for future expansions. In the remainder of this chapter, we detail how modular data center technology can be used to expand an existing compute resource. We begin by describing NASA’s requirements for supercomputing and how resources were provided prior to the integration of the Electra module-based system.

Biswas, Rupak

Optimizing airport runway improvement program - A dynamic programming approach

In order to reduce the air traffic delay in the terminal area, an immediate remedy is to increase airport capacity by an expansion of the existing runway system. The runway expansion program is often limited by budgetary constraints; the expensive facilities for a long-term improvement cannot be built at once. When a runway improvement strategy is being considered for a longer planning horizon, the investiment decision depends upon the interrelations of its composite periods. The problem, therefore, is to determine how time factor and investment decisions interact to yield an optimal improvement scheme that meets demand at a minimum cost. With this objective in mind, a dynamic programming methodology is employed to determine the optimal planning scheme. Also, an example runway improvement problem is tested to illustrate how a dynamic programming model is practical in actual application.

Yu, J. C.

Assessing Urban Heat in the Cincinnati and Covington Area to Inform Local Decision-Makers and Environmental Justice Initiatives

The Urban Heat Island effect is a phenomenon characterized by urban areas experiencing temperatures that are, on average, warmer than surrounding suburban and rural regions. Urban Heat Islands are fueled by expansive impervious surfaces, vehicle emissions, and insufficient urban green space. Densely populated urban centers like the Cincinnati, Ohio and Covington, Kentucky area can experience negative health impacts due to the Urban Heat Island. NASA DEVELOP partnered with Groundwork USA and Groundwork Ohio River Valley to combine environmental education and outreach with technical capacity building in NASA Earth observations. The DEVELOP team used Landsat 5 TM and ISS ECOSTRESS to calculate daytime and nighttime land surface temperature anomalies. The team found that the Cincinnati and Covington area was 8.32°F warmer during the day and 4.97°F warmer at night compared to non-urban areas. The team also ran the Natural Capital Project InVEST Urban Cooling Model to map a heat mitigation index for the study area. The heat mitigation index models the cooling capacity of each pixel and the effect of green spaces on the pixel’s ability to mitigate heat. Results show which communities are most vulnerable to impacts of increased urban heat. The team also assessed alternative tree canopy scenarios with the InVEST model to better understand the effectiveness of potential heat mitigation strategies. Increasing tree canopy cover by 25% in urbanized land cover types was found to reduce mean temperature across the study area by 0.87°F. Combining these results with work from Groundwork’s Climate Safe Neighborhoods program highlights the relationship between extreme heat and historical-race based housing practices in the region. Results provide partners at Groundwork with refined methodologies to support future education and outreach, as well as increase future capacity to NASA Earth observations.

Celeste Gambino

Potential of deep learning methods to enhance satellite-based monitoring of nuclear power plants focusing on remote operation evaluations

The anticipated expansion of the nuclear industry and the deployment of new nuclear reactors (200 + GW of new nuclear capacity by 2050) require the development of monitoring systems that align with safety and security concerns, providing enhanced evaluation capabilities. A remote monitoring system using satellites and deep learning techniques was evaluated for its ability to detect anomalies and capture various features of nuclear reactors independently of the conditions on the ground. Satellite images of current operational and under-construction nuclear power plants were collected from Google Earth Pro as a surrogate database. Subsequently, five datasets were created from the collected images. Transfer learning technique was used for several classification tasks utilizing VGG16, ResNet50V2, Xception, DenseNet121, and MobileNetV2 pre-trained models. In the first task, the capability of the monitoring system to detect abnormal conditions or processes in a nuclear power plant was investigated. In the second task, the ability to capture operational features remotely was examined. As an example, for the purposes of this study, these features included classifying reactors based on type, power range, or onsite condition. Several evaluation metrics were used to compare the performance of the pre-trained models and the overall monitoring system. Here, the evaluation results demonstrated that deep learning techniques and pre-trained models applied to satellite images have the potential to facilitate further and expand capabilities in monitoring systems to assess plant operation details.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Assessing Climate Change-Induced Variability in Generation Potential and Droughts of Renewable Energy Systems in India

Solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy systems are crucial for decarbonizing the electricity sector and achieving climate goals. However, these systems are weather-dependent, and ignoring the potential changes in their generation levels due to climate change could compromise achieving climate targets and meeting future electricity demand. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on the generation potential of wind and solar PV systems in India for three future periods, 2030 (2021-2040), 2050 (2041-2060), and 2070 (2061-2080) compared to the baseline year 2000 (1991-2010), under three emission scenarios: SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. Solar PV generation levels consistently decline (up to 10 %) across all regions and scenarios. Wind energy shows more pronounced variability (-20 % to 30 %). The South and Southeastern regions of India show improvements in wind potential across all scenarios and time periods. This study also investigated the projected changes in the generation droughts of both energy systems. For solar PV, drought days increase across most regions (exceeding 500 days under SSP370 across the 20-year period). In contrast, wind energy sees a reduction in drought days, especially in parts of South and Southeast India (declines exceeding 50 days across different scenarios). For both energy systems, the patterns of generation drought and generation potential are similar, and indicate that Western and Northern India may be less favorable for the future expansion of solar PV and wind energy, respectively. These results highlight the need to account for the potential impacts in future capacity planning.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Bayesian blacksmithing: discovering thermomechanical properties and deformation mechanisms in high-entropy refractory alloys

Finding alloys with specific design properties is challenging due to the large number of possible compositions and the complex interactions between elements. This study introduces a multi-objective Bayesian optimization approach guiding molecular dynamics simulations for discovering high-performance refractory alloys with both targeted intrinsic static thermomechanical properties and also deformation mechanisms occurring during dynamic loading. The objective functions are aiming for excellent thermomechanical stability via a high bulk modulus, a low thermal expansion, a high heat capacity, and for a resilient deformation mechanism maximizing the retention of the BCC phase after shock loading. Contrasting two optimization procedures, we show that the Pareto-optimal solutions are confined to a small performance space when the property objectives display a cooperative relationship. Conversely, the Pareto front is much broader in the performance space when these properties have antagonistic relationships. Density functional theory simulations validate these findings and unveil underlying atomic-bond changes driving property improvements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Visual‐Analytics Bridge Complexity and Accessibility for Robust Urban Water Planning

Urban water resources planning is complicated by unprecedented uncertainty in supply and demand. Real‐world planning often simplifies the full range of uncertainty faced by a system into a limited set of deterministic scenarios to enhance accessibility for decision‐makers and the public. However, overlooking uncertainty can expose the system to failures. On the other end of the spectrum, academically developed tools for scenario analysis rigorously quantify the combined effects of multiple sources of uncertainty, but the practical application of these models is limited by the challenges of information visualization and communication of results. In short, municipal water supply planners lack access to planning frameworks that effectively integrate a rigorous treatment of uncertainty with accessible, user‐friendly visual and interactive tools to enhance user accessibility. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing Visual‐Robust Decision Making, and demonstrate an application for the city of Santa Barbara (SB), CA. Santa Barbara faces multiple uncertainties from pending state and federal regulations to changing hydrology and water demand. The city seeks to increase its water portfolio robustness by expanding its seawater desalination plant, but must decide how much capacity to add. We introduce computational tools that assess uncertainty across nine uncertain drivers identified with the help of water planners in SB. To allow public participation in the desalination expansion decision, we develop interactive visual‐analytics to aid decision‐makers and stakeholders in navigating complex scenario analysis outcomes. Our results quantify the tradeoffs between increased capacity and system robustness and aim to enhance participation and uncertainty characterization of urban water planning efforts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Methods for Assessing Opportunities for Ring Dam Pumped Storage Hydropower

There is growing interest in new pumped storage hydropower (PSH) deployment to provide a range of grid flexibility, reliability, and resiliency services under an evolving and uncertain future power sector. The National Laboratory of the Rockies develops open PSH resource assessment and cost modeling tools to help evaluate PSH deployment opportunities, and this report describes expansions to those tools to consider an additional PSH system configuration - ring-dam reservoirs built on flat topographical features that are constructed from roller-compacted concrete material. This reservoir type is common among current PSH proposals and requires new methods to identify sites with this reservoir geometry throughout the United States and characterize the associated dam cost. Cost characterization for ring dam reservoirs required collecting historical dam cost data for earthen, rockfill, and roller-compacted concrete dams and regressing equations that relate costs between alternative materials. The ring dam site identification algorithm follows a 5-step procedure to identify circular geometry reservoirs. Once ring dam reservoirs are identified, they are then paired with potential dry-gully reservoirs, and the full set of potential paired reservoirs is cost-optimized to produce a least-cost set of potential PSH sites with no overlapping reservoirs. The resulting analysis found 1,663 ring-dam to dry-gully systems in the contiguous United States that are lower cost than any overlapping dry-gully to dry-gully systems, 29 in Alaska, and none in Hawaii or Puerto Rico. These systems constitute 1.5 TW of capacity in the contiguous United States and nearly 29 GW in Alaska, demonstrating that under suitable topography and head, ring-dam systems can provide cost-effective PSH opportunities. The greatest density of these opportunities are found in the intermountain west where there are mesas and flat land at bases of mountain ranges, but continued work could incorporate additional site characteristics or consider more complex reservoir shapes to find additional PSH deployment opportunities.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

Agrivoltaic Grazing Systems for a Sustainable Future: A Multi‐Disciplinary Review & Gap Analysis

Solar photovoltaics (PV) is the fastest growing source of electricity in the world, however, its expansion has raised concerns about the displacement of agriculture and the degradation of rangeland ecosystems. This has prompted research and development of multi-land-use systems that co-prioritize energy production alongside agriculture, commonly referred to as agrivoltaics. Currently, agrivoltaic grazing (also called solar grazing) is one of the most common forms of these systems. However, peer-reviewed research on these systems is limited. This review synthesizes research on agrivoltaic grazing systems, drawing upon literature addressing agrivoltaics broadly and considering relevant literature in adjacent fields of study. Based on this review, we identify six key gaps and priority directions for future research. These include foundational fieldwork to characterize the layered ecological impacts of solar PV and grazing and understand PV-livestock integration from both an animal welfare and a PV infrastructure perspective. This will facilitate the development of biogeochemical and economic models that improve our predictive capacity and ability to compare system designs. We also identify gaps in understanding the human aspects of these systems and emphasize the importance of utilizing collaborative research methods and increasing research on the social dimensions of agrivoltaic grazing systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Evolving Competitive Markets in SAPP: Leveraging Competitive Wholesale Electricity Markets to Drive Renewable Generation Capacity in the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP)

The SADC region has significant natural resource potential to increase renewable energy generation, improve electricity reliability, and support economic development. This research finds an apparent lack of confidence from electricity infrastructure investors in SAPP wholesale electricity markets, which increases risk perception and lowers the likelihood of capital deployment. With respect to free market fundamentals, competitive market obstacles and renewable energy development obstacles are characterized. Stakeholders identified the top obstacles to well-functioning competitive markets as insufficient transmission infrastructure for interconnection and regional movement of electricity, dominance of national single-buyer markets, and lack of or weak nation-state regulatory frameworks. Stakeholders prioritized the top three obstacles for renewable energy development as a lack of viable commercial arrangements for variable renewable energy (VRE) balancing, lack of functional and consistent nation-level regulations, and higher project costs related to reliance on imported equipment. With respect to potential solution options, stakeholders prioritized the development of new cost allocation and finance methods to facilitate new transmission expansion, training to educate new or potential new market entrants on SAPP processes, as well as modeling and analysis of regional SAPP participation benefits disaggregated to the nation-state level. From these perspectives, this research identified strategy options for consideration including transitioning SAPP to a regional transmission operator (RTO) for operation and planning of cross-border transmission facilities and market administration, shifting operations of SAPP member transmission systems to Independent System Operators (ISOs), establishing a regional regulatory authority and enhancing market data transparency. Implementing these reforms is expected to be challenging, but not insurmountable, given the domestic political, legal, and jurisdictional complexities of the SADC region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Control-structure-thermal interactions in analysis of lunar telescopes

The lunar telescope project was an excellent model for the CSTI study because a telescope is a very sensitive instrument, and thermal expansion or mechanical vibration of the mirror assemblies will rapidly degrade the resolution of the device. Consequently, the interactions are strongly coupled. The lunar surface experiences very large temperature variations that range from approximately -180 C to over 100 C. Although the optical assemblies of the telescopes will be well insulated, the temperature of the mirrors will inevitably fluctuate in a similar cycle, but of much smaller magnitude. In order to obtain images of high quality and clarity, allowable thermal deformations of any point on a mirror must be less than 1 micron. Initial estimates indicate that this corresponds to a temperature variation of much less than 1 deg through the thickness of the mirror. Therefore, a lunar telescope design will most probably include active thermal control, a means of controlling the shape of the mirrors, or a combination of both systems. Historically, the design of a complex vehicle was primarily a sequential process in which the basic structure was defined without concurrent detailed analyses or other subsystems. The basic configuration was then passed to the different teams responsible for each subsystem, and their task was to produce a workable solution without requiring major alterations to any principal components or subsystems. Consequently, the final design of the vehicle was not always the most efficient, owing to the fact that each subsystem design was partially constrained by the previous work. This procedure was necessary at the time because the analysis process was extremely time-consuming and had to be started over with each significant alteration of the vehicle. With recent advances in the power and capacity of small computers, and the parallel development of powerful software in structural, thermal, and control system analysis, it is now possible to produce very detailed analyses of intermediate designs in a much shorter period of time. The subsystems can thus be designed concurrently, and alterations in the overall design can be quickly adopted into each analysis; the design becomes an iterative process in which it is much easier to experiment with new ideas, configurations, and components. Concurrent engineering has the potential to produce efficient, highly capable designs because the effect of one subystem on another can be assessed in much more detail at a very early point in the program. The research program consisted of several tasks: scale a prototype telescope assembly to a 1 m aperture, develop a model of the telescope assembly by using finite element (FEM) codes that are available on site, determine structural deflections of the mirror surfaces due to the temperature variations, develop a prototype control system to maintain the proper shape of the optical elements, and most important of all, demonstrate the concurrent engineering approach with this example. In addition, the software used for the finite element models and thermal analysis was relatively new within the Program Development Office and had yet to be applied to systems this large or complex; understanding the software and modifying it for use with this project was also required. The I-DEAS software by Structural Dynamics Research Corporation (SDRC) was used to build the finite element models, and TMG developed by Maya Heat Transfer Technologies, Ltd. (which runs as an I-DEAS module) was used for the thermal model calculations. All control system development was accomplished with MATRIX(sub X) by Integrated Systems, Inc.

Thompson, Roger C.

Substantial oxygen loss and chemical expansion in lithium-rich layered oxides at moderate delithiation

Delithiation of layered oxide electrodes triggers irreversible oxygen loss, one of the primary degradation modes in lithium-ion batteries. However, the delithiation-dependent mechanisms of oxygen loss remain poorly understood. Here we investigate the oxygen non-stoichiometry in Li 1.18–x Ni 0.21 Mn 0.53 Co 0.08 O 2–δ electrodes as a function of Li content by using cycling protocols with long open-circuit voltage steps at varying states of charge. Surprisingly, we observe substantial oxygen loss even at moderate delithiation, corresponding to 2.5, 4.0 and 7.6 ml O 2 per gram of Li 1.18–x Ni 0.21 Mn 0.53 Co 0.08 O 2–δ after resting at upper capacity cut-offs of 135, 200 and 265 mAh g −1 for 100 h. Our observations suggest an intrinsic oxygen instability consistent with predictions of high oxygen activity at intermediate potentials versus Li/Li + . In addition, we observe a large chemical expansion coefficient with respect to oxygen non-stoichiometry, which is about three times greater than those of classical oxygen-deficient materials such as fluorite and perovskite oxides. Furthermore, our work challenges the conventional wisdom that deep delithiation is a necessary condition for oxygen loss in layered oxide electrodes and highlights the importance of calendar ageing for investigating oxygen stability.

Atomistic models

Solar and Storage Integration in the U.S. Southeast: Implications for Resource Adequacy [Slides]

In this study, we evaluate how an iterative portfolio approach compares to a more traditional capacity credit method, using the U.S. Southeast as a case study region. Using open-source planning and resource adequacy tools, we compare results using a capacity credit approximation method with those from iterating behind the two. We also explore how the iterative approach performs under a range of sensitivities, including higher load growth, regional coordination, and alternative weather years. We find that traditional capacity credit approximation methods can function well in today's system, but may face challenges for systems with higher levels of solar and storage. As such, integrating planning and resource adequacy models can address some of these gaps, helping planners deliver more reliable systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Land management and climate change determine second‐generation bioenergy potential of the US Northern Great Plains

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) has been proposed as a potential climate mitigation strategy raising concerns over trade‐offs with existing ecosystem services. We evaluate the feasibility of BECCS in the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB), a landscape with diverse land use, ownership, and bioenergy potential. We develop land‐use change scenarios and a switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) crop functional type to use in a land‐surface model to simulate second‐generation bioenergy production. By the end of this century, average annual switchgrass production over the UMRB ranges from 60 to 210 Tg dry mass/year and is dependent on the Representative Concentration Pathway for greenhouse gas emissions and on land‐use change assumptions. Under our simple phase‐in assumptions this results in a cumulative total production of 2,000–6,000 Tg C over the study period with the upper estimates only possible in the absence of climate change. Switchgrass yields decreased as average CO2 concentrations and temperatures increased, suggesting the effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 was small because of its C4 photosynthetic pathway. By the end of the 21st century, the potential energy stored annually in harvested switchgrass averaged between 1 and 4 EJ/year assuming perfect conversion efficiency, or an annual electrical generation capacity of 7,000–28,000 MW assuming current bioenergy efficiency rates. Trade‐offs between bioenergy and ecosystem services were identified, including cumulative direct losses of 1,000–2,600 Tg C stored in natural ecosystems from land‐use change by 2090. Total cumulative losses of ecosystem carbon stocks were higher than the potential ~300 Tg C in fossil fuel emissions from the single largest power plant in the region over the same time period, and equivalent to potential carbon removal from the atmosphere from using biofuels grown in the same region. Numerous trade‐offs from BECCS expansion in the UMRB must be balanced against the potential benefits of a carbon‐negative energy system.

climate change

The right conditions for high-precision dynamic temperature and heat capacity measurement via pyrometry and conductivity

The pursuit of accurate bulk temperature T under extreme conditions has been a long-standing goal of the high pressure science community, complicated by a lack of data to inform models. To reach these extremely high-pressure, high-temperature (high P − T) conditions, a combination of dynamic and heated static experiments (e.g., diamond or gem anvil cel experiments) are used. For example, in a diamond anvil cell (DAC) experiment, a sample placed in the DAC is first pressurized. Following pressurization, the sample T is increased either by heating the entire DAC (usually using resistive heating, and limited to ∼1000K) or by applying intense laser power to the sample surfaces. In a dynamic experiment, the process of pressurizing the sample also heats it. In the case of shock physics experiments, such heating is substantial, easily reaching thousands of Kelvin; in our work we have seen T ∼17000K. Most methods of measuring temperature at ambient are not compatible with experiments under these high-pressure, high-temperature conditions: thermocouples break, melt, or have conductivity properties that differ from ambient where they are calibrated; thermometers would melt; both are too slow. As a result most methods are based on non-contact techniques such as x-ray diffraction broadening, neutron scattering, or optical methods. Of these, optical methods using the visible and near-infrared region of the spectrum are the most commonly used as the sources and detectors are readily available. In the case of optical methods the optical depth, and therefore the measurement location, is limited to the surface. When a window or anvil material is used, heat flows from the sample into the window/anvil. Likewise, if the sample undergoes a change in thermodynamic state, such as expansion upon release, different T may be expected. As a result, the surface or apparent temperature T app measurement will differ from the bulk or interior temperature that is desired. This surface measurement must be related to the bulk measurement using thermal transport models and material models. While it is tempting to conclude that one should just use x-ray methods that directly probe the interior, even these methods have been shown to depend on thermal transport and material models. Regardless of the method used to create the high P − T condition, therefore, we must understand the role of thermal transport and material models upon our interpretation of the T measurement, as well as the errors and uncertainties associated with the choice of models used in the analysis. This is a substantial area of research and this paper is by no means a complete survey of the relevant sources of uncertainty. For example, we have yet to begin to address alternate transport models in a detailed manner (e.g., Tan-Ahrens), or the many models that use additional layers to approximate melting, turbulence, or epitaxial phenomena). Likewise, we have not explored the impact upon uncertainty of thermal models that use temperature-dependent thermal transport coefficients, or the wide range of material models that can be applied. Instead, this paper focuses on using one simple model, the Urtiew-Grover model, to understand the sources of error in T measurement so that we may identify how best to focus future research efforts to return the best improvements and avoid working on over-optimizing a single type of measurement. To this end, we work through some of the best and worst case scenarios for T measurement.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC

Wholesale Electricity Markets and Resource Adequacy with High Clean Energy Generation Targets

Wholesale electricity markets are intended to incentivize system generation investments and operations outcomes that meet evolving system needs. In this work, we evaluate the effectiveness of wholesale market structures, rules and policies in achieving system resource adequacy (RA) and clean energy targets in the presence of self-interested generation investors using the Electricity Markets and Investment Suite Agent-based Simulation (EMIS-AS) model. Results highlight that both capacity markets and operating reserve demand curves (ORDCs) can help achieve a reliable system but with different RA compliance timelines and distribution of generation technologies. Structures with capacity markets tend to favor more capital-intensive peaking technologies while reducing wind and solar build-outs due to suppressed energy and clean energy market prices, particularly in the absence of strong clean energy targets. Conversely, ORDCs improve the commitment of available generation units, but this comes at the expense of higher system costs and renewable generation curtailment. We also find that well-calibrated static capacity demand curves can yield similar reliability and total cost compared to capacity market demand curves informed dynamically by resource adequacy while also yielding stable annual capacity prices. Different approaches to formulating ORDC curves can also yield key trade-offs, namely that a more efficient treatment of storage chronology results in lower ORDC curves and prices, yielding less investment and cost but at the expense of reliability. Finally, the effectiveness of wholesale electricity markets in practically achieving very high clean energy generation targets highly depends on the cost-competitiveness of clean energy technologies that can support critical balancing needs across multiple timescales.

capacity expansion