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NASA NTRS1985

The Role of Vitamin D in the Bone Changes Associated with Simulated Weightlessness

The role of vitamin D in the change in bone metabolism was examined. The serum concentrations in rats sacrificed after 2, 5, 7, 10, 12 and 15 days of suspension was measured. Between days 1 and 5 of suspension and then gradually decreased towards normal between days 5 and 15. The time course of the changes in the circulating concentrations of 1,25(OH)2D and 24,25(OH)2D mirror almost precisely the changes in bone metabolism. The relationship between the changes in vitamin D metabolism and bone metabolism is investigated. Whether the bone changes are due to the change in serum concentration of 1,25(OH)2D or the changes in bone formation causing a reduction in Ca flux out of the serum pool and thereby suppressing 1,25(OH)2D production is examined. It is found that suspension had no effect on hormone concentration in the 1,25(OH)2D infused animals. Nevertheless, both vehicle and 1,25(OH)2D infused suspended rats exhibited the same reduction in bone mineral, and uptake of (45)Ca. It is suggested that the transitory reduction in circulating 1,25(OH)2D during suspension is not likely to cause the abnormalities in bone metabolism but rather that the changes in bone metabolism are primary and cause the fall in serum 1,25(OH)2D concentration. This supports the hypothesis that the metabolic abnormalities in bone associated with simulated weightlessness are due to the direct effect of unweighting on the bone.

Halloran, B. P.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A correlational analysis of the effects of changing environmental conditions on the NR atomic hydrogen maser

An extensive statistical analysis has been undertaken to determine if a correlation exists between changes in an NR atomic hydrogen muser's frequency offset and changes in environmental conditions. Data have been acquired over the past 20 months by recording the frequency offset of three NR atomic hydrogen masers along with the relative and absolute humidity, barometric pressure, and ambient temperature of the laboratory in which the masers are maintained. Correlational analyses have been performed comparing barometric pressure, humidity, and temperature with maser frequency offset as functions of time for periods ranging from 5.5 to 17 days. Semi partial correlation coefficients as large as -0.9 have been fond between barometric pressure and maser frequency offset for data covering periods as long as a week. Maser frequency offset and barometric pressure were consistently found to change simultaneously. The correlation between humidity and frequency offset is less predictable, and the resulting semi partial correlation coefficients were usually small when compared with those derived from the relationship between pressure and frequency offset. The time delay between changes in humidity and correlated changes in maser frequency offset was found to vary extensively with no predictable pattern. Analysis of temperature data indicates that, in the most current design, temperature does not significant(y affect maser frequency offset in the laboratory environment. Thus, the results of the analyses disclose a significant statistical correlation between changes in maser frequency offset and changes in barometric pressure. The statistics also reveal some correlation between humidity and frequency offset, bat for reasons to be discussed, the effects of humidity should be considered secondary to the effects of changing barometric pressure.

R. A. Dragonette↗

NASA NTRS2000

Aerosol-Induced Radiative Flux Changes Off the United States Mid-Atlantic Coast: Comparison of Values Calculated from Sunphotometer and In Situ Data with Those Measured by Airborne Pyranometer

The Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment (TARFOX) measured a variety of aerosol radiative effects (including flux changes) while simultaneously measuring the chemical, physical, and optical properties of the responsible aerosol particles. Here we use TARFOX-determined aerosol and surface properties to compute shortwave radiative flux changes for a variety of aerosol situations, with midvisible optical depths ranging from 0.06 to 0.55. We calculate flux changes by several techniques with varying degrees of sophistication, in part to investigate the sensitivity of results to computational approach. We then compare computed flux changes to those determined from aircraft measurements. Calculations using several approaches yield downward and upward flux changes that agree with measurements. The agreement demonstrates closure (i.e. consistency) among the TARFOX-derived aerosol properties, modeling techniques, and radiative flux measurements. Agreement between calculated and measured downward flux changes is best when the aerosols are modeled as moderately absorbing (midvisible single-scattering albedos between about 0.89 and 0.93), in accord with independent measurements of the TARPOX aerosol. The calculated values for instantaneous daytime upwelling flux changes are in the range +14 to +48 W/sq m for midvisible optical depths between 0.2 and 0.55. These values are about 30 to 100 times the global-average direct forcing expected for the global-average sulfate aerosol optical depth of 0.04. The reasons for the larger flux changes in TARFOX include the relatively large optical depths and the focus on cloud-free, daytime conditions over the dark ocean surface. These are the conditions that produce major aerosol radiative forcing events and contribute to any global-average climate effect.

Russell, P. B.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Surface Elevation Changes in West Antarctica from Satellite Altimetry: Mass Balance Implications

Time-series of surface elevation change, which are constructed from 7-years (1992-1999) of ERS-1 and 2 satellite radar altimeter data of Antarctica, show significant seasonal, inter-annual, and long-term changes. Elevation time-series are created from altimeter crossovers among 90-day data periods on a 50 km grid to 81.5 degrees S and fit with a multivariate linear/sinusoidal function to give the average rate of elevation change (dH/dt) and account for seasonal changes. On the major Ronne, Filchner, and Ronne ice shelves, the dH/dt are small or near zero. In contrast, the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula and along the West Antarctic coast appear to be thinning significantly, with a 23 +/- 3 cm a(exp -1) surface elevation decrease on the Larsen ice shelf and a 65 +/- 4 cm a(exp -1) decrease on the Dotson ice shelf. Significant elevation decreases are obtained over most of the drainage basins of the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers. Significant increases are obtained over most of the other grounded ice in Marie Byrd Land, the Antarctic Peninsula, and Coates Land. Over the sector from 85 degrees W to 115 degrees W, which includes the Pine Island and Thwaites basins, the average elevation is significantly decreasing by 8.1 cm a(exp -1). The corresponding ice thickness change is about -11 cm a(exp -1), with a corresponding mass loss of 82 Gt a(exp -1), and a 0.22 mm a(exp -1) contribution to global sea level rise. In terms of elevation change, the decrease in the Pine Island-Thwaites sector is largely balanced by the increase in the Marie Byrd Land, but only balanced by about 1/4 in terms of ice thickness change and contribution to sea level rise. The overall average elevation change for the grounded ice is + 1.2 cm a(exp -1). Using an average bedrock uplift of 2.5 cm a(exp -1), implies an average ice thickness decrease of 1.3 cm a(exp -1), a mass loss of 22 Gt a(exp -1), and a 0.06 mm a(exp -1) contribution to global sea level rise.

Zwally, H. Jay↗

NASA NTRS2001

Methodology for Evaluating Raw Material Changes to RSRM Elastomeric Insulation Materials

The Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) uses asbestos and silicon dioxide filled acrylonitrile butadiene rubber (AS-NBR) as the primary internal insulation to protect the case from heat. During the course of the RSRM Program, several changes have been made to the raw materials and processing of the AS-NBR elastomeric insulation material. These changes have been primarily caused by raw materials becoming obsolete. In addition, some process changes have been implemented that were deemed necessary to improve the quality and consistency of the AS-NBR insulation material. Each change has been evaluated using unique test efforts customized to determine the potential impacts of the specific raw material or process change. Following the evaluations, the various raw material and process changes were successfully implemented with no detectable effect on the performance of the AS-NBR insulation. This paper will discuss some of the raw material and process changes evaluated, the methodology used in designing the unique test plans, and the general evaluation results. A summary of the change history of RSRM AS-NBR internal insulation is also presented.

Mildenhall, Scott D.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Data and Modeling of Dendrites Subject to A Step Change in Pressure (TDSE)

There is considerable interest in dendritic solidification because of the influence dendrites have in the determination of microstructure, and thereby in the physical properties of cast metals and alloys. Current theories and models of dendritic growth generally couple diffusion effects in the melt with the physics of the interface. Data and subsequent analysis prior of the tip growth speed and radii of thermal succinonitrile dendrites in the near-convection free, on-orbit, free-fall environment demonstrate that these theories yield predictions that are reasonably in agreement with the results of experiment. However, data and analysis for assessing the interfacial physics component of theory are not sufficiently detailed or definitive. To study fundamental aspects of dendritic interface stability, we are measuring and modeling the kinetics and morphology of dendrites as they evolve from one well-defined steady state at a pre-set supercooling, through a transient stage, to a different well-defined steady state. More specifically, we subject succinonitrile dendrites, growing under steady-state conditions, to a rapid change in pressure. This leads to a rapid change in thermal driving force from the corresponding change in both the equilibrium melting temperature due to the Clapeyron effect, and a change in the far-field temperature due to adiabatic temperature changes in the bulk liquid and solid. Subsequently, we observe transformations from a well-characterized initial state into a new steady-state. Initial data reveal that the dendrite tip velocity changes almost as fast as the pressure charges, while the tip radius changes occur more slowly, taking from 10 60 seconds depending on the size of the step change and the final supercooling. Computer modeling of this process shows both agreements and disagreements with the experimental data. In making these observations and measurements, we are gaining new understandings of interfacial dynamics and state-selection physics.

Koss, Matthew B.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Haemodynamic changes during neck pressure and suction in seated and supine positions

We sought to quantify the contribution of cardiac output (Q) and total vascular conductance (TVC) to carotid baroreflex-mediated changes in mean arterial pressure (MAP) in the upright seated and supine positions. Acute changes in carotid sinus transmural pressure were evoked using brief 5 s pulses of neck pressure and neck suction (NP/NS) via a simplified paired neck chamber that was developed to enable beat-to-beat measurements of stroke volume using pulse-doppler ultrasound. Percentage contributions of Q and TVC were achieved by calculating the predicted change in MAP during carotid baroreflex stimulation if only the individual changes in Q or TVC occurred and all other parameters remained at control values. All NP and NS stimuli from +40 to -80 Torr (+5.33 to -10.67 kPa) induced significant changes in Q and TVC in both the upright seated and supine positions (P < 0.001). Cardiopulmonary baroreceptor loading with the supine position appeared to cause a greater reliance on carotid baroreflex-mediated changes in Q. Nevertheless, in both the seated and supine positions the changes in MAP were primarily mediated by alterations in TVC (percentage contribution of TVC at the time-of-peak MAP, seated 95 +/- 13, supine 76 +/- 17 %). These data indicate that alterations in vasomotor activity are the primary means by which the carotid baroreflex regulates blood pressure during acute changes in carotid sinus transmural pressure.

Clinical Trial↗

NASA NTRS1996

Changes in autonomic activity preceding onset of nonsustained ventricular tachycardia

Background: The triggering role of the autonomic nervous system in the initiation of ventricular tachycardia has not been established. To investigate the relationship between changes in autonomic activity and the occurrence of nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT) we examined heart rate variability (HRV) during the 2-hour period preceding spontaneous episodes of NSVT. Twenty-four subjects were identified retrospectively as having had one episode of NSVT during 24-hour Holter ECC recording. Methods: We measured the mean interval between normal heats (meanRR), the standard deviation of the intervals between beats (SD), the percentage of counts of sequential intervals between normal beats with a change of >50 ms (%RR50), the logarithms of low- and high-frequency spectral components (lnLF, lnHF) of HRV for sequential 10-minute segments preceding NSVT. The correlation dimension (CDim) of HRV was calculated similarly for sequential 20-minute segments. We assessed the significance of the time-course change of each marker over the 120-minute period prior to NSVT onset. Results: MeanRR (P < 0.05), lnLF (P < 0.0001), lnHF (P < 0.0001), the natural logarithm of the ratio of LF to HF (ln[LF/HF]; P < 0.05), and CDim (P < 0.05) showed significant time-course changes during that period, while SD and %RR50 did not. MeanRR, lnLF, lnHF, and CDim all decreased prior to the onset of NSVT, whereas ln(LF/HF) increased. We divided the subjects into two groups: one consisting of 12 patients with coronary artery disease; and the second group of 12 patients without known coronary artery disease. Both groups showed significant changes (P < 0.05) of CDim, lnLF, and lnHF preceding the episodes of NSVT. Conclusions: Changes in the pattern of HRV prior to the onset of episodes of NSVT suggest that changes in autonomic activity may commonly play a role in the triggering of spontaneous episodes of NSVT in susceptible patients. The measured changes suggest a reduction in parasympathetic activity, perhaps in conjunction with an increase in sympathetic activity, may trigger NSVT.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2007

Mission Risk Reduction Regulatory Change Management

NASA Headquarters Environmental Management Division supports NASA's mission to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research by integrating environmental considerations into programs and projects early-on, thereby proactively reducing NASA's exposure to institutional, programmatic and operational risk. As part of this effort, NASA established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) as a resource for detecting, analyzing, and communicating environmental regulatory risks to the NASA stakeholder community. The RRAC PC focuses on detecting emerging environmental regulations and other operational change drivers that may pose risks to NASA programs and facilities, and effectively communicating the potential risks. For example, regulatory change may restrict how and where certain activities or operations may be conducted. Regulatory change can also directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage applications of certain materials. Regulatory change can result in significant adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities due to NASA's stringent performance requirements for materials and components related to human-rated space vehicles. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented a system for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the process utilized by the RRACPC to communicate regulatory change and the associated potential risks within NASA, as well as the process for communicating and cooperating with other government agencies and industry partners, both domestic and international, to ensure mission success.

Scroggins, Sharon↗

NASA NTRS2009

Modeling Bird Migration under Climate Change: A Mechanistic Approach

How will migrating birds respond to changes in the environment under climate change? What are the implications for migratory success under the various accelerated climate change scenarios as forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change? How will reductions or increased variability in the number or quality of wetland stop-over sites affect migratory bird species? The answers to these questions have important ramifications for conservation biology and wildlife management. Here, we describe the use of continental scale simulation modeling to explore how spatio-temporal changes along migratory flyways affect en-route migration success. We use an individually based, biophysical, mechanistic, bird migration model to simulate the movement of shorebirds in North America as a tool to study how such factors as drought and wetland loss may impact migratory success and modify migration patterns. Our model is driven by remote sensing and climate data and incorporates important landscape variables. The energy budget components of the model include resting, foraging, and flight, but presently predation is ignored. Results/Conclusions We illustrate our model by studying the spring migration of sandpipers through the Great Plains to their Arctic breeding grounds. Why many species of shorebirds have shown significant declines remains a puzzle. Shorebirds are sensitive to stop-over quality and spacing because of their need for frequent refueling stops and their opportunistic feeding patterns. We predict bird "hydrographs that is, stop-over frequency with latitude, that are in agreement with the literature. Mean stop-over durations predicted from our model for nominal cases also are consistent with the limited, but available data. For the shorebird species simulated, our model predicts that shorebirds exhibit significant plasticity and are able to shift their migration patterns in response to changing drought conditions. However, the question remains as to whether this behavior can be maintained over increasing and sustained environmental change. Also, the problem is much more complex than described by the current processes captured in our model. We have taken some important and interesting steps, and our model does demonstrate how local scale information about individual stop-over sites can be linked into the migratory flyway as a whole. We are incorporating additional, species specific, mechanistic processes to better reflect different climate change scenarios

Smith, James A.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Gender-related Changes in Dorsal Hand and Foot Vein Function Following 60 Days of Head Down Bed Rest

It is well known that female astronauts are more likely to experience post-flight orthostatic hypotension and presyncope compared to male astronauts. It has been suggested that the disproportionally higher incidence of presyncope (83% of female vs. 20% male crewmembers) may be due to sex-related differences in vascular function between the upper and lower limbs. However, much of this evidence is specific to changes in resistance vessels. Given that more than 70% of the circulating blood volume resides in compliance vessels, it is conceivable that even small changes in venous function may contribute to post-flight orthostatic hypotension. In spite of this, little is currently known regarding the influence of microgravity exposure on venous function between males and females. PURPOSE: To determine the influence of 60 days of HDBR on dorsal foot and hand vein function between healthy males (M) and females (F). METHODS: Using 2-D ultrasound, dorsal hand and foot vein diameter responses to intravenous infusions phenylephrine (PE), acetylcholine (ACh), and nitroglycerine (NTG) were determined in 26 adults; 10 females (age:37 +/- 2 yr ) and 16 males (age:34 +/- 2 yr ). Changes in venous function were calculated as the difference between diameter at baseline and following each venoactive drug. Differences in venous function between limb and sexes across HDBR were determined using mixed-effects linear regression. RESULTS: In response to 60 days of HDBR, the change in venousconstrictor response to PE in the dorsal hand veins was not significantly different between M and F. Interestingly, the change in constrictor response in the dorsal foot veins (compared to pre HDBR) was approximately 30% greater in the F, whereas the constrictor response was approximately 45% less in the M (p=0.026). HDBR had no influence on the change in dilator response to ACh, or NTG between M and F and between vascular beds. CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate that 60 days of HDBR contributes to sex-related differences in venous function. Importantly, the changes are specific to dorsal foot veins and do not appear to be related to changes in endothelial or smooth muscle function. Previous data from our laboratory indicate that females have an impaired sympathetic response following HDBR. However, the results from the current investigation imply that F maintain the ability to respond to sympathetic stimulation but may not be able to adequately activate a proper response following HDBR.

Westby, Christian M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Linked Open Data in the Global Change Information System (GCIS)

The U.S. Global Change Research Program (http://globalchange.gov) coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP is developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will centralize access to data and information related to global change across the U.S. federal government. The first implementation will focus on the 2013 National Climate Assessment (NCA) . (http://assessment.globalchange.gov) The NCA integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the USGCRP; analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The NCA has received over 500 distinct technical inputs to the process, many of which are reports distilling and synthesizing even more information, coming from thousands of individuals around the federal, state and local governments, academic institutions and non-governmental organizations. The GCIS will present a web-based version of the NCA including annotations linking the findings and content of the NCA with the scientific research, datasets, models, observations, etc. that led to its conclusions. It will use semantic tagging and a linked data approach, assigning globally unique, persistent, resolvable identifiers to all of the related entities and capturing and presenting the relationships between them, both internally and referencing out to other linked data sources and back to agency data centers. The developing W3C PROV Data Model and ontology will be used to capture the provenance trail and present it in both human readable web pages and machine readable formats such as RDF and SPARQL. This will improve visibility into the assessment process, increase understanding and reproducibility, and ultimately increase credibility and trust of the resulting report. Building on the foundation of the NCA, longer term plans for the GCIS include extending these capabilities throughout the U.S. Global Change Research Program, centralizing access to global change data and information across the thirteen agencies that comprise the program.

Tilmes, Curt A.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Preindustrial to Present-Day Changes in Tropospheric Hydroxyl Radical and Methane Lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

We have analysed time-slice simulations from 17 global models, participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), to explore changes in present-day (2000) hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration and methane (CH4) lifetime relative to preindustrial times (1850) and to 1980. A comparison of modeled and observation-derived methane and methyl chloroform lifetimes suggests that the present-day global multi-model mean OH concentration is overestimated by 5 to 10% but is within the range of uncertainties. The models consistently simulate higher OH concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with the Southern Hemisphere (SH) for the present-day (2000; inter-hemispheric ratios of 1.13 to 1.42), in contrast to observation-based approaches which generally indicate higher OH in the SH although uncertainties are large. Evaluation of simulated carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations, the primary sink for OH, against ground-based and satellite observations suggests low biases in the NH that may contribute to the high north–south OH asymmetry in the models. The models vary widely in their regional distribution of present-day OH concentrations (up to 34%). Despite large regional changes, the multi-model global mean (mass-weighted) OH concentration changes little over the past 150 yr, due to concurrent increases in factors that enhance OH (humidity, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, and UV radiation due to decreases in stratospheric ozone), compensated by increases in OH sinks (methane abundance, carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic carbon (NMVOC) emissions). The large inter-model diversity in the sign and magnitude of preindustrial to present-day OH changes (ranging from a decrease of 12.7% to an increase of 14.6%) indicate that uncertainty remains in our understanding of the long-term trends in OH and methane lifetime. We show that this diversity is largely explained by the different ratio of the change in global mean tropospheric CO and NOx burdens (Delta CO/Delta NOx, approximately represents changes in OH sinks versus changes in OH sources) in the models, pointing to a need for better constraints on natural precursor emissions and on the chemical mechanisms in the current generation of chemistry-climate models. For the 1980 to 2000 period, we find that climate warming and a slight increase in mean OH (3.5 +/- 2.2%) leads to a 4.3 +/- 1.9% decrease in the methane lifetime. Analysing sensitivity simulations performed by 10 models, we find that preindustrial to present-day climate change decreased the methane lifetime by about four months, representing a negative feedback on the climate system. Further, we analysed attribution experiments performed by a subset of models relative to 2000 conditions with only one precursor at a time set to 1860 levels. We find that global mean OH increased by 46.4 +/- 12.2% in response to preindustrial to present-day anthropogenic NOx emission increases, and decreased by 17.3 +/-2.3%, 7.6 +/- 1.5%, and 3.1 +/- 3.0% due to methane burden, and anthropogenic CO, and NMVOC emissions increases, respectively.

nitrogen oxides↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Effect of Agricultural Growing Season Change on Market Prices in Africa

Local agricultural production is a key element of food security in many agricultural countries in Africa. Climate change and variability is likely to adversely affect these countries, particularly as they affect the ability of smallholder farmers to raise enough food to feed themselves. Seasonality influences farmers' decisions about when to sow and harvest, and ultimately the success or failure of their crops. At a 2009 conference in the United Kingdom hosted by the Institute of Development Studies, Jennings and Magrath (2009) described farmer reports from East Asia, South Asia, Southern Africa, East Africa and Latin America. Farmers indicate significant changes in the timing of rainy seasons and the pattern of rains within seasons, including: More erratic rainfall, coming at unexpected times in and out of season; Extreme storms and unusually intense rainfall are punctuated by longer dry spells within the rainy season; Increasing uncertainty as to the start of rainy seasons in many areas; Short or transitional second rainy seasons are becoming stronger than normal or are disappearing altogether. These farmer perceptions of change are striking in that they are geographically widespread and are remarkably consistent across diverse regions (Jennings and Magrath, 2009). The impact of these changes on farmers with small plots and few resources is large. Farming is becoming riskier because of heat stress, lack of water, pests and diseases that interact with ongoing pressures on natural resources. Lack of predictability in the start and length of the growing season affects the ability of farmers to invest in appropriate fertilizer levels or improved, high yielding varieties. These changes occur at the same time as the demand for food is rising and is projected to continue to rise for the next fifty years (IAASTD, 2008). Long-term data records derived from satellite remote sensing can be used to verify these reports, providing necessary analysis and documentation required to plan effective adaptation strategies. Remote sensing data can also provide some understanding of the spatial extent of these changes and whether they are likely to continue. Given the agricultural nature of most economies on the African continent, agricultural production continues to be a critical determinant of both food security and economic growth (Funk and Brown, 2009). Crop phenological parameters, such as the start and end of the growing season, the total length of the growing season, and the rate of greening and senescence are important for planning crop management, crop diversification, and intensification. The World Food Summit of 1996 defined food security as: "when all people at all times have access to sufficient, safe, nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life". Food security roughly depends on three factors: 1) availability of food; 2) access to food and 3) appropriate use of food, as well as adequate water and sanitation. The first factor is dependent on growing conditions and weather and climate. In a previous paper we have investigated this factor by evaluating the effect of large scale climate oscillation on land surface phenology (Brown et al., 2010). We found that all areas in Africa are significantly affected by at least one type of large scale climate oscillations and concluded that these somewhat predictable oscillations could perhaps be used to forecast agricultural production. In addition, we have evaluated changes in agricultural land surface phenology over time (Brown et al., 2012). We found that land surface phenology models, which link large-scale vegetation indices with accumulated humidity, could successfully predict agricultural productivity in several countries around the world. In this chapter we are interested in the effect of variability in peak timing of the growing season, or phenology, on the second factor of food security, food access. In this chapter we want to determine if there is a link between market prices and land surface phenology and to determine which markets are vulnerable to land surface phenology changes and variability and which market prices are not correlated.

Prices↗

NASA NTRS2014

Quantification of In-flight Physical Changes: Anthropometry and Neutral Body Posture

Currently, NASA does not have sufficient in-flight anthropometric data gathered to assess the impact of physical body shape and size changes on suit sizing. For developing future planetary and reduced gravity suits, NASA needs to quantify the impacts of microgravity on anthropometry, body posture, and neutral body postures (NBP) to ensure optimal crew performance, fit, and comfort. To obtain these impacts, anthropometric data, circumference, length, height, breadth, and depth for body segments (i.e. chest, waist, bicep, thigh, calf) from astronauts for pre, in-, and postflight conditions needs to be collected. Once this data has been collected, a comparison between pre, in-, and postflight anthropometric values will be analyzed, yielding microgravity factors. The NBP will be used to determined body posture (joint angle) changes between subjects throughout the duration of a mission. Data collection, starting with Increments 37/38, is still in progress with the completion of 3 out of 12 subjects. NASA suit engineers and NASA's Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Project Office have identified that suit fit in microgravity could become an issue. It has been noted that crewmembers often need to adjust their suit sizing once they are in orbit. This adjustment could be due to microgravity effects on anthropometry and postural changes, and is necessary to ensure optimal crew performance, fit, and comfort in space. To date, the only data collected to determine the effects of microgravity on physical human changes have been during Skylab, STS-57, and a recent HRP study on seated height changes due to spinal elongation (Spinal Elongation, Master Task List [MTL] #221). The Skylab and the STS-57 studies found that there is a distinct neutral body posture (NBP) based on photographs. The still photographs showed that there is a distinguishable posture with the arms raised and the shoulder abducted; and, in addition, the knees were flexed with noticeable hip flexion and the foot plantar flexed [1,2]. This is the one standard set of body joint angles for a NBP in microgravity. A recent simulated microgravity NBP study [3] has shown an individual variability and inconsistencies in defining NBP. This variation may be influenced by spinal growth, the type of suit fit, and other potential anthropometry factors such as spinal curvature, age, and gender. The variation aspect of this essential data is required for all kinds of space device designs (e.g. suits, habitat, mobility aids, etc.). The method proposed considers the dynamic nature of body movement and will use a measurement technique to continually monitor posture and develop a probability likelihood of the natural posture and how the NBP postures are affected by anthropometry. Additionally, Skylab studies found that crewmembers experienced a stature growth of up to 3%. The data included 3 crewmembers that showed that there is a bi-phasic stature growth once the crew enters into weightlessness. However, the Spinal Elongation study identified that the crewmembers could experience about a 6% growth in seated height and a 3% stature growth, when exposed to microgravity. The results prove that not all anthropometric measurements have the same microgravity percent growth factor. For EVA and suit engineers to properly update the sizing protocol for microgravity, they need additional anthropometric data from space missions. Hence, this study is aimed to gather additional in-flight anthropometric measurements, such as length, depth, breadth, and circumference, to determine the changes to body shape and size due to microgravity effects. It is anticipated that by recording the potential changes to body shape and size, a better suit sizing protocol will be developed for ISS and other space missions. In essence, this study will help NASA quantify the impacts of microgravity on anthropometry to ensure optimal crew performance, fit, and comfort. This study will use simplistic data collection techniques, 3D laser scanning, digital still, and video data, and perform photogrammetric analyses to determine the changes that occur to the body shape, size, and NBP when exposed to a microgravity environment.

Young, K. S.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Groundwater Storage Changes: Present Status from GRACE Observations

Satellite gravity measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) provide quantitative measurement of terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes with unprecedented accuracy. Combining GRACE-observed TWS changes and independent estimates of water change in soil and snow and surface reservoirs offers a means for estimating groundwater storage change. Since its launch in March 2002, GRACE time-variable gravity data have been successfully used to quantify long-term groundwater storage changes in different regions over the world, including northwest India, the High Plains Aquifer and the Central Valley in the USA, the North China Plain, Middle East, and southern Murray-Darling Basin in Australia, where groundwater storage has been significantly depleted in recent years (or decades). It is difficult to rely on in situ groundwater measurements for accurate quantification of large, regional-scale groundwater storage changes, especially at long timescales due to inadequate spatial and temporal coverage of in situ data and uncertainties in storage coefficients. The now nearly 13 years of GRACE gravity data provide a successful and unique complementary tool for monitoring and measuring groundwater changes on a global and regional basis. Despite the successful applications of GRACE in studying global groundwater storage change, there are still some major challenges limiting the application and interpretation of GRACE data. In this paper, we present an overview of GRACE applications in groundwater studies and discuss if and how the main challenges to using GRACE data can be addressed.

Australia↗

NASA NTRS2018

Global Changes in the Diurnal Cycle of Surface Ozone

Changing emissions of NOx and other ozone precursors drive trends in both production and loss of surface ozone, leading to surface ozone trends that differ according to the time of day. Consequently, the magnitude of the diurnal cycle in surface ozone is changing in several regions of the world. Changes in the diurnal cycle of ozone have implications for the metrics used to assess the impact of ozone on human health and vegetation, since different metrics are sensitive to different portions of the diurnal cycle. We use a high resolution model simulation to examine global changes in the magnitude of the diurnal cycle of O3 between 1980 and 2015. The simulation reproduces the negative trends in the tropospheric NO2 column over the eastern United States and Europe, and the positive trends over East Asia, seen by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). It also gives a reasonable reproduction of the change in the diurnal cycle of surface ozone seen at rural sites in the eastern United States between the 1990s and 2000s. The simulation shows that the magnitude of the surface O3 diurnal cycle is increasing in regions with positive changes in NOx emissions, such as South and East Asia, and decreasing in regions with reductions in NOx emissions. It also shows changes in the diurnal cycle of the tropospheric ozone column, although these have fewer regions with statistically significant trends. These changes suggest that daily mean ozone is responding less than the mid-day ozone measured by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and OMI.

Trends↗

NASA NTRS2020

Changing Physical Conditions and Lower and Upper Trophic Level Responses on the US Northeast Shelf

Sea surface temperature (SST), salinity, and chlorophyll concentration (CHL) have changed in the US Northeast Shelf ecosystem over recent decades. The changes in these parameters were distinctly marked by change points around the year 2012 resulting in a 0.83°C increase in SST, a 0.3 PSU increase in salinity, and decrease in CHL in excess of 0.4 mg m–3. Where temperature and salinity shifted in mean level around their respective change points, CHL declined in a more monotonic fashion. Modeled data suggest that the shift in CHL resulted in a greater contribution of pico- and nanophytoplankton and a decreased contribution of microphytoplankton to overall CHL. Complementary estimates of the contribution of different phytoplankton functional types suggest a diminished contribution of diatoms to the phytoplankton community. Hence, not only is there evidence of a decline in the overall primary production capacity of the ecosystem, but also evidence of a fundamental change in the size and quality of phytoplankton supporting food webs. Two ecosystem responses to the observed changes in SST, salinity, and CHL were analyzed. Both length and weight at age have declined for a number of species, and both measures of growth appear to be negatively associated with temperature and positively associated with CHL. Biomass of fish and macroinvertebrates has declined in recent years, with a decrease in pelagic species associated with a decrease in CHL, while the decline in demersal species was associated with an increase in temperature. Collectively, these ecosystem changes appear to be the result of the complex interactions of both thermal effects and changes at the base of the food web.

Kevin D. Friedland↗