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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Aerosol Decline Accelerates the Increasing Extreme Precipitation in China

Extreme precipitation is becoming more intense and frequent. The increasing trends in extreme precipitation in China in warm season related to changes in aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs) are investigated using observations, reanalysis data and model simulations. A significant accelerating increase in extreme precipitation occurred around 2010, with the trend in accumulated extreme rainfall amount (R95pTOT) increasing from 2.88 mm per decade during 2000–2010 to 22.88 mm per decade during 2010–2023. The sudden acceleration of the increasing extreme precipitation is largely attributed to the reverse in aerosol trends associated with China’s clean air actions, which affects extreme precipitation through perturbing cloud microphysics and atmospheric dynamics, accounting for half of the change in R95pTOT trends. Future aerosol reduction to achieve carbon neutrality is shown to continue to intensify the extreme precipitation, which overweighs the effect induced by GHGs, highlighting the importance of aerosol changes in modulating future climate and weather extremes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A storyline analysis of Hurricane Irma’s precipitation under various levels of climate warming

Abstract Understanding how extreme weather, such as tropical cyclones, will change with future climate warming is an interesting computational challenge. Here, the hindcast approach is used to create different storylines of a particular tropical cyclone, Hurricane Irma (2017). Using the community atmosphere model, we explore how Irma’s precipitation would change under various levels of climate warming. Analysis is focused on a 48 h period where the simulated hurricane tracks reasonably represent Irma’s observed track. Under future scenarios of 2 K, 3 K, and 4 K global average surface temperature increase above pre-industrial levels, the mean 3-hourly rainfall rates in the simulated storms increase by 3–7% K −1 compared to present. This change increases in magnitude for the 95th and 99th percentile 3-hourly rates, which intensify by 10–13% K −1 and 17–21% K −1 , respectively. Over Florida, the simulated mean rainfall accumulations increase by 16–26% K −1 , with local maxima increasing by 18–43% K −1 . All percent changes increase monotonically with warming level.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2020

New World Meteorological Organization Certified Megaflash Lightning Extremes for Flash Distance (709 km) and Duration (16.73 s) Recorded From Space

Identification and validation of atmospheric extremes are essential to monitoring climate change, to addressing engineering and safety concerns, and to promoting technological advancement. An international World Meteorological Organization evaluation committee has critically adjudicated and recommended acceptance of two lightning megaflash events (horizontal mesoscale lightning discharges of >100 km in length) as new global extremes using analysis of Geostationary Lightning Mapper data. The world's greatest extent for an individual lightning flash is a single flash that covered a horizontal distance of 709 ± 8 km (441 ± 5 mi) across parts of southern Brazil on 31 October 2018. Furthermore, the greatest duration for a single lightning flash is 16.730 ± 0.002 s from a flash that developed continuously over northern Argentina on 4 March 2019.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Contrasting Responses of Hailstorms to Anthropogenic Climate Change in Different Synoptic Weather Systems

Hailstones and extreme precipitation generate substantial economic losses across the United States (US) and the globe. Their strong association with short-lived, intense convective storms poses a great challenge in predicting their future changes. Here, we conducted model simulations at 1.2 km grid spacing for severe convective storms with large hail and heavy precipitation that occurred in two typical types of synoptic-scale environments in spring seasons over the central US under both current and future climate conditions. We find that the responses of large hail (diameters >2.5 cm) to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) are markedly different between the hailstorms developed in the two types of synoptic-scale environments, with over 110% increase in large hail occurrences for the frontal systems, whereas less than 30% increase for the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) systems. This is explained by the larger increase in convective intensity and updraft width and a smaller increase in warm cloud depth in the frontal storms compared with the GPLLJ storms. Interestingly, the occurrences and intensity of heavy precipitation (rain rate >20 mm hr-1) in both types of systems are similarly sensitive to ACC (e.g., 40% and 33% increases in the occurrences for the frontal and GPLLJ systems, respectively). These results advance our knowledge of hail projection and have important implications for managing risks for future hail.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021

Towards the end of June 2021, temperature records were broken by several degrees Celsius in several cities in the Pacific Northwest areas of the US and Canada, leading to spikes in sudden deaths and sharp increases in emergency calls and hospital visits for heat-related illnesses. Here we present a multi-model, multi-method attribution analysis to investigate the extent to which human-induced climate change has influenced the probability and intensity of extreme heat waves in this region. Based on observations, modelling and a classical statistical approach, the occurrence of a heat wave defined as the maximum daily temperature (TXx) observed in the area 45–52 °N, 119–123 °W, was found to be virtually impossible without human-caused climate change. The observed temperatures were so extreme that they lay far outside the range of historical temperature observations. This makes it hard to state with confidence how rare the event was. Using a statistical analysis that assumes that the heat wave is part of the same distribution as previous heat waves in this region led to a first-order estimation of the event frequency of the order of once in 1000 years under current climate conditions. Using this assumption and combining the results from the analysis of climate models and weather observations, we found that such a heat wave event would be at least 150 times less common without human-induced climate change. Also, this heat wave was about 2 °C hotter than a 1-in-1000-year heat wave would have been in 1850–1900, when global mean temperatures were 1.2 °C cooler than today. Looking into the future, in a world with 2 °C of global warming (0.8 °C warmer than today), a 1000-year event would be another degree hotter. Our results provide a strong warning: our rapidly warming climate is bringing us into uncharted territory with significant consequences for health, well-being and livelihoods. Adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare societies for a very different future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Different Strategies of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Would Significantly Affect Climate Extreme Mitigation

Abstract Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) has been proposed as a potential supplement to mitigate some climate impacts of anthropogenic warming. Using Community Earth System Model ensemble simulation results, we analyze the response of temperature and precipitation extremes to two different SAI strategies: one injects SO 2 at the equator to stabilize global mean temperature and the other injects SO 2 at multiple locations to stabilize global mean temperature as well as the interhemispheric and equator‐to‐pole temperature gradients. Our analysis shows that in the late 21st century, compared with the present‐day climate, both equatorial and multi‐location injection lead to reduced hot extremes in the tropics, corresponding to overcooling of the mean climate state. In mid‐to‐high latitude regions, in comparison to the present‐day climate, substantial decreases in cold extremes are observed under both equatorial and multi‐location injection, corresponding to residual winter warming of the mean climate state. Both equatorial and multi‐location injection reduce precipitation extremes in the tropics below the present‐day level, associated with the decrease in mean precipitation. Overall, for most regions, temperature and precipitation extremes show reduced change in response to multi‐location injection than to equatorial injection, corresponding to reduced mean climate change for multi‐location injection. In comparison with equatorial injection, in response to multi‐location injection, most land regions experience fewer years with significant change in cold extremes from the present‐day level, and most tropical regions experience fewer years with significant change in hot extremes. The design of SAI strategies to mitigate anthropogenic climate extremes merits further study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Strengthening Resilience: Florida Resident Voices on Resource Needs During Power Outages

Extreme weather events related to climate change, and an aging electricity infrastructure are disrupting reliable electricity services to a greater degree. Further, previous research has found that more socially vulnerable populations are more likely to live in areas with a higher probability of power outages. Here, this study examines the issues that people face during power outages and the resources that help individuals maintain resilience during power outages caused by extreme weather events in socially vulnerable communities. Using qualitative data from focus groups with 56 individuals in Central and North Florida, the research highlights lived experiences during outages and difficulties using and accessing resources during these conditions. Based on a qualitative review of the focus group discussions, this paper explores the solutions and support systems residents believe would improve their ability to cope. The findings offer insights to guide policy and strategic planning, with the goal of strengthening personal preparedness and response by focusing on the resources people consider most helpful for enduring frequent and severe outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hurricane-induced power outage risk under climate change is primarily driven by the uncertainty in projections of future hurricane frequency

Nine in ten major outages in the US have been caused by hurricanes. Long-term outage risk is a function of climate change-triggered shifts in hurricane frequency and intensity; yet projections of both remain highly uncertain. However, outage risk models do not account for the epistemic uncertainties in physics-based hurricane projections under climate change, largely due to the extreme computational complexity. Instead they use simple probabilistic assumptions to model such uncertainties. Here, we propose a transparent and efficient framework to, for the first time, bridge the physics-based hurricane projections and intricate outage risk models. We find that uncertainty in projections of the frequency of weaker storms explains over 95% of the uncertainty in outage projections; thus, reducing this uncertainty will greatly improve outage risk management. We also show that the expected annual fraction of affected customers exhibits large variances, warranting the adoption of robust resilience investment strategies and climate-informed regulatory frameworks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Beaver dams overshadow climate extremes in controlling riparian hydrology and water quality

Abstract Hydrologic extremes dominate chemical exports from riparian zones and dictate water quality in major river systems. Yet, changes in land use and ecosystem services alongside growing climate variability are altering hydrologic extremes and their coupled impacts on riverine water quality. In the western U.S., warming temperatures and intensified aridification are increasingly paired with the expanding range of the American beaver—and their dams, which transform hydrologic and biogeochemical cycles in riparian systems. Here, we show that beaver dams overshadow climatic hydrologic extremes in their effects on water residence time and oxygen and nitrogen fluxes in the riparian subsurface. In a mountainous watershed in Colorado, U.S.A., we find that the increase in riparian hydraulic gradients imposed by a beaver dam is 10.7–13.3 times greater than seasonal hydrologic extremes. The massive hydraulic gradient increases hyporheic nitrate removal by 44.2% relative to seasonal extremes alone. A drier, hotter climate in the western U.S. will further expand the range of beavers and magnify their impacts on watershed hydrology and biogeochemistry, illustrating that ecosystem feedbacks to climate change will alter water quality in river systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Intercomparison of Dynamically and Statistically Downscaled Climate Change Projections over the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

Downscaling of global climate model (GCMs) simulations is a key element of regional-to-local-scale climate change projections that can inform impact assessments, long-term planning, and resource management in different sectors. Here, we conduct an intercomparison between statistically and dynamically downscaled GCMs simulations using the hybrid delta (HD) and the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model, respectively, over the Midwest and Great Lakes region to 1) validate their performance in reproducing extreme daily precipitation (P) and daily maximum temperature (T max ) for summer and winter and 2) evaluate projections of extremes in the future. Our results show the HD statistical downscaling approach, which includes large-scale bias correction of GCM inputs, can reproduce observed extreme P and T max reasonably well for both summer and winter. However, raw historical WRF simulations show significant bias in both extreme P and T max for both seasons. Interestingly, the convection-permitting WRF simulation at 4-km grid spacing does not produce better results for seasonal extremes than the WRF simulation at 12 km using a parameterized convection scheme. Despite a broad similarity for winter extreme P projections, the projected changes in the future summer storms are quite different between downscaling methods; WRF simulations show substantial increases in summer extreme precipitation, while the changes projected by the HD approach exhibit moderate decreases overall. The WRF simulations at 4 km also show a pronounced decoupling effect between seasonal totals and extreme daily P for summer, which suggests that there could be more intense summer extremes at two different time scales, with more severe individual convective storms combined with longer summer droughts at the end of the twenty-first century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Biogeochemical Processes Across Aquatic Interfaces

The aquatic interfaces exposing terrestrial soils to oxic-anoxic regime shifts represent biogeochemical “hotspots” that are extremely sensitive to climate and environmental change. However, processes and interaction across theses aquatic interfaces are poorly understood and underrepresented in current Earth system models. In this project, we aim to develop predictive understanding of the feedbacks between microbial systems and geochemical environments that determine emergent ecosystem behaviors and resilience in response to disturbances. We use experimental, mechanistic modeling and meta-analysis tools to elucidate interactions among soil, water, geomorphology and microbiology that regulate the molecular transformations and fluxes of carbon, nutrients, and redox-sensitive compounds across aquatic interfaces.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A New Paradigm for Observing and Modeling of Air-Sea Interactions to Advance Earth System Prediction

The protection of people, property, and environmental resources from extreme weather, seasonal patterns, and climate change drives the need for predictions of weather, ocean, and climate patterns that have skill and value at timescales longer than traditional 1-10-day forecasts, including outlooks spanning weeks to decades. Advancing Earth System Prediction (ESP) skill at this range of timescales requires improved observations, understanding, and modeling of the processes in the ocean boundary layer, the atmospheric boundary layer, and their interface. A new way of referring to this coupled system is the Air-Sea Transition Zone (ASTZ). The report that follows is framed by the paradigm that the ASTZ is a single entity that regulates the flow of energy and matter between the ocean and the atmosphere. The ASTZ is thus the medium through which the ocean and atmosphere respond to and influence one another across their often disparate scales of variability. ASTZ modeling, observing, and understanding needs are particularly acute because very few measurements exist over oceans, and even fewer span the entire ASTZ, even though oceans cover 70% of Earth’s surface and are the source of most of the rain and snow that falls on both the land and the oceans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deployment Readiness Framework for Marine Energy

As electricity prices continue to rise and extreme weather events related to climate change become more frequent, many island and remote coastal communities are prioritizing their energy future. Isolated locations and coastal environments pose challenges for energy costs and grid resilience, but the ocean can be a key solution. Marine energy could provide these communities with clean, affordable, and reliable power. The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory are developing the Deployment Readiness Framework (DRF) to support remote, coastal, and island community-driven energy transitions. This framework can be used to better understand the readiness of communities for marine energy technology demonstration projects and their operation. The DRF builds on the Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project (ETIPP) supported in part by DOE's Water Power Technologies Office.

community readiness↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Impact of Model Resolution on the Southern Hemisphere in Community Climate System Model Version 4 Idealized Climate Simulations

Model resolution plays a large role in accurately simulating the Southern Hemisphere circulation in both the ocean and atmosphere. Resolving the mesoscale field is important as it has been shown to have a significant impact on the large-scale climate in eddy-rich regions, which are regions of large CO2 absorption. The presence of ocean and atmospheric mesoscale features can affect sea surface temperatures, the strength and location of storm tracks, and many other air-sea processes. Additionally, with an improvement in resolution, the eddy kinetic energy in the ocean can be expected to change considerably. The significance model resolution has on the Southern Hemisphere is examined using the Community Climate System Model, Version 4, eddy-parameterizing and eddy-resolving simulations. The CO2 concentrations and ozone levels are specified independently to better understand how the mesoscale field responds to extreme changes in external forcing and the resulting climate impacts. Overall, in the eddy-parameterizing simulations, the ozone forcing is found to be more important than the changes in CO2 concentrations. However, in the case of the eddy-resolving simulations, the CO2 concentrations are found to be more dominant, especially in eddy-rich regions. These results demonstrate the need for an increase in model resolution for climate prediction.

Daher, Houraa (ORCID:0000000200177346)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung↗
DOE OSTI2022

Changing Trends in Drought Patterns over the Northeastern United States Using Multiple Large Ensemble Datasets

Since the infamous extreme drought of the 1960s, the climate of the northeastern United States (NEUS) has generally trended toward warmer and wetter conditions. Nonetheless, there is mounting evidence that short-term droughts will continue to pose a significant risk for this region. To better explore the processes governing events such as these, climate models have adopted more complex representations of the fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice system; however, large uncertainties in future projections still persist, with internal variability necessitating large ensembles to understand trends in both rare and high-impact extreme events such as rapidly developing droughts (a term here that includes flash droughts developing on monthly scales). In this study, seven large ensemble (LE) models are employed to answer the outstanding question: How are the frequency and character of drought in the NEUS changing under a warming climate? We find that most LE models indicate the NEUS will experience a long-term wetting trend with more “extremely wet” months, but also more frequent short-term extreme droughts. These changes are associated with increasing precipitation, atmospheric water demand, and climate variability. We also conclude that discrepant trends in precipitation and evapotranspiration variability will lead to increasing anticorrelation of these variables, which is relevant to the intensification of rapidly developing drought, particularly in the spring season. These changes are associated with an increase in evapotranspiration from plants, brought by an earlier emergence of the growing season and denser vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

How Flood Hazards in a Warming Climate Could Be Amplified by Changes in Spatiotemporal Patterns and Mechanisms of Water Available for Runoff

Prior research on climate change impacts on flooding has primarily focused on changes in extreme rainfall magnitudes, often neglecting snow processes and spatiotemporal storm patterns, such as hyetograph shapes and areal reduction factors (ARFs). This study examines projected changes in extreme water available for runoff (W) events in two snow-dominated basins in the western United States: the Yakima River Basin (YRB) in Washington State and the Walker River Basin (WRB) spanning the California-Nevada border. We analyze changes in W magnitudes, mechanisms, hyetograph shapes, and ARFs, and study their compounded impacts on flood hazard. Our findings suggest increased extreme W magnitudes across a large portion of the basins, with steeper or flatter hyetographs, and higher ARF values under the future climate. These changes are driven by a shift from seasonal snowmelt to more rain-on-snow events at higher elevations and by increased rainfall at lower elevations. We then use a single event-based rainfall-runoff model to estimate flood hazard changes based on extreme W magnitudes, hyetograph shapes, ARFs, and their compounded impacts. Our analysis reveals that focusing solely on the magnitude of changes in extreme W can significantly underestimate future flood hazards and uncertainties. Ignoring future changes in spatiotemporal patterns can underestimate future flood hazards by 63% and underestimate the uncertainty in future flood events by 18% in the WRB. These results underscore the necessity of incorporating spatiotemporal dynamics into future flood hazard assessments to provide a more accurate evaluation of potential impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Farmers’ Perception of Climate Change and Its Impacts on Agriculture

Climate change and climate variability drive rapid glacier melt and snowpack loss, extreme precipitation and temperature events, and alteration of water availability in the Himalayas. There is increasing observational evidence of climate change impacts on water resource availability and agricultural productivity in the central Himalayan region. Here, we assess the farmers’ perception of climate change and its impacts on agriculture in western Nepal. We interviewed 554 households and conducted eight focus group discussions to collect farmers’ perceptions of temperature and rainfall characteristics, water availability, onset and duration of different seasons, and the impacts of such changes on their lives and livelihoods. Our results indicate that the farmers’ perceptions of rising annual and summer temperatures are consistent with observations. Perception, however, contradicts observed trends in winter temperature, as well as annual, monsoon, and winter precipitation. In addition, farmers are increasingly facing incidences of extreme events, including rainfall, floods, landslides, and droughts. These hazards often impact agricultural production, reducing household income and exacerbating the economic impacts on subsistence farmers. Integrated assessment of farmers’ perceptions and hydrometeorological observations is crucial to improving climate change impact assessment and informing the design of mitigation and adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗