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At least 163 records · Page 9
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NASA NTRS2021

Reduced El NiñO Variability in the Mid-Pliocene According to the Pliomip2 Ensemble

The mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264–3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period during which atmospheric CO 2 levels were similar to recent historical values (∼400 ppm). Several proxy reconstructions for the mid-Pliocene show highly reduced zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the tropical Pacific Ocean, indicating an El Niño-like mean state. However, past modelling studies do not show these highly reduced gradients. Efforts to understand mid-Pliocene climate dynamics have led to the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Results from the first phase (PlioMIP1) showed clear El Niño variability (albeit significantly reduced) and did not show the greatly reduced time-mean zonal SST gradient suggested by some of the proxies. In this work, we study El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, which consists of additional global coupled climate models and updated boundary conditions compared to PlioMIP1. We quantify ENSO amplitude, period, spatial structure and “flavour”, as well as the tropical Pacific annual mean state in mid-Pliocene and pre-industrial simulations. Results show a reduced ENSO amplitude in the model-ensemble mean (−24 %) with respect to the pre-industrial, with 15 out of 17 individual models showing such a reduction. Furthermore, the spectral power of this variability considerably decreases in the 3–4-year band. The spatial structure of the dominant empirical orthogonal function shows no particular change in the patterns of tropical Pacific variability in the model-ensemble mean, compared to the pre-industrial. Although the time-mean zonal SST gradient in the equatorial Pacific decreases for 14 out of 17 models (0.2 ∘C reduction in the ensemble mean), there does not seem to be a correlation with the decrease in ENSO amplitude. The models showing the most “El Niño-like” mean state changes show a similar ENSO amplitude to that in the pre-industrial reference, while models showing more “La Niña-like” mean state changes generally show a large reduction in ENSO variability. The PlioMIP2 results show a reasonable agreement with both time-mean proxies indicating a reduced zonal SST gradient and reconstructions indicating a reduced, or similar, ENSO variability.

mid-Pliocene warm period↗
NASA NTRS2011

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): Experimental Design and Boundary Conditions (Experiment 2)

The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project has expanded to include a model intercomparison for the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.29 to 2.97 million yr ago). This project is referred to as PlioMIP (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project). Two experiments have been agreed upon and together compose the initial phase of PlioMIP. The first (Experiment 1) is being performed with atmosphere only climate models. The second (Experiment 2) utilizes fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Following on from the publication of the experimental design and boundary conditions for Experiment 1 in Geoscientific Model Development, this paper provides the necessary description of differences and/or additions to the experimental design for Experiment 2.

Haywood, A. M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Distributed Assimilation of Satellite-based Snow Extent for Improving Simulated Streamflow in Mountainous, Dense Forests: An Example Over the DMIP2 Western Basins

Snow cover area affects snowmelt, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and ultimately streamflow. For the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 2 Western basins, we assimilate satellite-based fractional snow cover area (fSCA) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, or MODIS, into the National Weather Service (NWS) SNOW-17 model. This model is coupled with the NWS Sacramento Heat Transfer (SAC-HT) model inside the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Land Information System. SNOW-17 computes fSCA from snow water equivalent (SWE) values using an areal depletion curve. Using a direct insertion, we assimilate fSCAs in two fully distributed ways: 1) we update the curve by attempting SWE preservation, and 2) we reconstruct SWEs using the curve. The preceding are refinements of an existing simple, conceptually-guided NWS algorithm. Satellite fSCA over dense forests inadequately accounts for below-canopy snow, degrading simulated streamflow upon assimilation during snowmelt. Accordingly, we implement a below-canopy allowance during assimilation. This simplistic allowance and direct insertion are found to be inadequate for improving calibrated results, still degrading them as mentioned above. However, for streamflow volume for the uncalibrated runs, we obtain: (1) substantial to major improvements (64-81 %) as a percentage of the control run residuals (or distance from observations), and (2) minor improvements (16-22 %) as a percentage of observed values. We highlight the need for detailed representations of canopy-snow optical radiative transfer processes in mountainous, dense forest regions if assimilation-based improvements are to be seen in calibrated runs over these areas.

Yatheendradas, Soni↗
NASA NTRS1995

Cloud-radiative effects on implied oceanic energy transport as simulated by atmospheric general circulation models

This paper summarizes the ocean surface net energy flux simulated by fifteen atmospheric general circulation models constrained by realistically-varying sea surface temperatures and sea ice as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. In general, the simulated energy fluxes are within the very large observational uncertainties. However, the annual mean oceanic meridional heat transport that would be required to balance the simulated surface fluxes is shown to be critically sensitive to the radiative effects of clouds, to the extent that even the sign of the Southern Hemisphere ocean heat transport can be affected by the errors in simulated cloud-radiation interactions. It is suggested that improved treatment of cloud radiative effects should help in the development of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models.

Gleckler, P. J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

"Hot Spots" of Land Atmosphere Coupling

Previous estimates of land-atmosphere interaction (the impact of soil moisture on precipitation) have been limited by a severe paucity of relevant observational data and by the model-dependence of the various computational estimates. To counter this limitation, a dozen climate modeling groups have recently performed the same highly-controlled numerical experiment as part of a coordinated intercomparison project. This allows, for the first time ever, a superior multi-model approach to the estimation of the regions on the globe where precipitation is affected by soil moisture anomalies during Northern Hemisphere summer. Such estimation has many potential benefits; it can contribute, for example, to seasonal rainfall prediction efforts.

Koster, Randal D.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Changing Characteristics of Tropical Extreme Precipitation-Cloud Regimes in Warmer Climates

In this paper, we have investigated the changing characteristics of climatic scale (monthly) tropical extreme precipitation in warming climates using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Results are from Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations driven by a) control experiment with present-day sea surface temperature (SST) and CO 2 concentration, b) P4K, same as in a) but with uniform increase by 4K in SST globally, and c) same as in a), but with imposed SST and CO 2 concentration from outputs of coupled E3SM forced by 4xCO 2 concentration. We find that as the surface warms under P4K and 4xCO 2 , both convective and stratiform rain increase. Importantly, there is increasing fractional contribution of stratiform rain as a function of precipitation intensity, with the most extreme but rare events occurring preferentially over land more than ocean, more so under 4xCO 2 than P4K. Extreme precipitation is facilitated by increased precipitation efficiency, reflecting accelerated rates of recycling of precipitation-cloud water (both liquid and ice phases) in regions with colder anvil cloud tops. Changes in vertical profiles of clouds, condensation heating and vertical motions indicate increasing precipitation-cloud-circulation organization from control, P4K to 4xCO 2 . Results suggest that large-scale ocean warming, i.e., P4K, is the primary cause contributing to organization structure resembling the well-known Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) for increased extreme precipitation on shorter (hourly to daily) time scales. Additional 4xCO 2 atmospheric radiative heating, and dynamically consistent anomalous SST further amplifies the MCS organization under P4K. Analyses of the surface moist static energy distribution show that increase in surface moisture (temperature) under P4K and 4xCO 2 is the key driver leading to enhanced convective instability over tropical ocean (land). However, the fast and large increase in land surface temperature and lack of available local moisture result in strong reduction in land surface relative humidity, reflecting severe drying and enhanced convective inhibition (CIN). It is argued that very extreme and rare “record-breaking” precipitation events found over land under P4K, more so under 4xCO 2 , are likely due to the delayed onset of deep convection, i.e., the longer the suppression of deep convection by CIN, the more severe the extreme precipitation when eventually occur, due to the release of large amount of stored surplus convective available potential energy in the lower troposphere during prolonged CIN.

climate-scale extreme tropical precipitation↗
NASA NTRS2014

Evaluating the Dominant Components of Warming in Pliocene Climate Simulations

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is the first coordinated climate model comparison for a warmer palaeoclimate with atmospheric CO2 significantly higher than pre-industrial concentrations. The simulations of the mid-Pliocene warm period show global warming of between 1.8 and 3.6 C above pre-industrial surface air temperatures, with significant polar amplification. Here we perform energy balance calculations on all eight of the coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations within PlioMIP Experiment 2 to evaluate the causes of the increased temperatures and differences between the models. In the tropics simulated warming is dominated by greenhouse gas increases, with the cloud component of planetary albedo enhancing the warming in most of the models, but by widely varying amounts. The responses to mid-Pliocene climate forcing in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes are substantially different between the climate models, with the only consistent response being a warming due to increased greenhouse gases. In the high latitudes all the energy balance components become important, but the dominant warming influence comes from the clear sky albedo, only partially offset by the increases in the cooling impact of cloud albedo. This demonstrates the importance of specified ice sheet and high latitude vegetation boundary conditions and simulated sea ice and snow albedo feedbacks. The largest components in the overall uncertainty are associated with clouds in the tropics and polar clear sky albedo, particularly in sea ice regions. These simulations show that albedo feedbacks, particularly those of sea ice and ice sheets, provide the most significant enhancements to high latitude warming in the Pliocene.

climate models↗
NASA NTRS1999

Soil Surface Runoff Scheme for Improving Land-Hydrology and Surface Fluxes in Simple SiB (SSiB)

Evapotranspiration on land is hard to measure and difficult to simulate. On the scale of a GCM grid, there is large subgrid-scale variability of orography, soil moisture, and vegetation. Our hope is to be able to tune the biophysical constants of vegetation and soil parameters to get the most realistic space-averaged diurnal cycle of evaporation and its climatology. Field experiments such as First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE), Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS), and LBA help a great deal in improving our evapotranspiration schemes. However, these improvements have to be matched with, and coupled to, consistent improvement in land-hydrology; otherwise, the runoff problems will intrinsically reflect on the soil moisture and evapotranspiration errors. Indeed, a realistic runoff simulation also ensures a reasonable evapotranspiration simulation provided the precipitation forcing is reliable. We have been working on all of the above problems to improve the simulated hydrologic cycle. Through our participation in the evaluation and intercomparison of land-models under the behest of Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP), we identified a few problems with Simple SiB (SSIB; Xue et al., 1991) hydrology in regions of significant snowmelt. Sud and Mocko (1999) show that inclusion of a separate snowpack model, with its own energy budget and fluxes with the atmosphere aloft and soil beneath, helps to ameliorate some of the deficiencies of delayed snowmelt and excessive spring season runoff. Thus, much more realistic timing of melt water generation was simulated with the new snowpack model in the subsequent GSWP re-evaluations using 2 years of ISLSCP Initiative I forcing data for 1987 and 1988. However, we noted an overcorrection of the low meltwater infiltration of SSiB. While the improvement in snowmelt timing was found everywhere, the snowmelt infiltration has became excessive in some regions, e.g., Lena river basin. This leads to much reduced runoff in many basins as compared to observations. We believe this is a consequence of neglect of the influence of subgrid-scale variations in orography that affects the production of surface runoff.

Sud, Y. C.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Predictability of the 1997 and 1998 South Asian Summer Monsoons on the Intraseasonal Time Scale Based on 10 AMIP2 Model Runs

Predictability of the 1997 and 1998 South Asian summer monsoons is examined using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalyses, and 100 two-year simulations with ten different Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST). We focus on the intraseasonal variations of the south Asian summer monsoon associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis shows a clear coupling between SST anomalies and upper level velocity potential anomalies associated with the MJO. We analyze several MJO events that developed during the 1997 and 1998 focusing of the coupling with the SST. The same analysis is carried out for the model simulations. Remarkably, the ensemble mean of the two-year AGCM simulations show a signature of the observed MJO events. The ensemble mean simulated MJO events are approximately in phase with the observed events, although they are weaker, the period of oscillation is somewhat longer, and their onset is delayed by about ten days compared with the observations. Details of the analysis and comparisons among the ten AMIP2 (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) models will be presented in the conference.

Wu, Man Li C.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Multidecadal Changes in the UTLS Ozone from the MERRA-2 Reanalysis and the GMI Chemistry Model

Long-term changes of ozone in the UTLS (Upper Troposphere / Lower Stratosphere) reflect the response to decreases in the stratospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting substances as well as changes in the stratospheric circulation induced by climate change. To date, studies of UTLS ozone changes and variability have relied mainly on satellite and in-situ observations as well as chemistry-climate model simulations. By comparison, the potential of reanalysis ozone data remains relatively untapped. This is despite evidence from recent studies, including detailed analyses conducted under SPARC (Scalable Processor Architecture) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP), that demonstrate that stratospheric ozone fields from modern atmospheric reanalyses exhibit good agreement with independent data while delineating issues related to inhomogeneities in the assimilated observations. In this presentation, we will explore the possibility of inferring long-term geographically and vertically resolved behavior of the lower stratospheric (LS) ozone from NASA's MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications -2) reanalysis after accounting for the few known discontinuities and gaps in its assimilated input data. This work builds upon previous studies that have documented excellent agreement between MERRA-2 ozone and ozonesonde observations in the LS. Of particular importance is a relatively good vertical resolution of MERRA-2 allowing precise separation of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone contents. We also compare the MERRA-2 LS ozone results with the recently completed 37-year simulation produced using Goddard Earth Observing System in "replay" mode coupled with the GMI (Global Modeling Initiative) chemistry mechanism. Replay mode dynamically constrains the model with the MERRA-2 reanalysis winds, temperature, and pressure. We will emphasize the areas of agreement of the reanalysis and replay and interpret differences between them in the context of our increasing understanding of model transport driven by assimilated winds.

Ozone↗
NASA NTRS1999

Coupling Processes Between Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate

This is the final report. The overall objective of this project is to improve the understanding of coupling processes among atmospheric chemistry, aerosol and climate, all important for quantitative assessments of global change. Among our priority are changes in ozone and stratospheric sulfate aerosol, with emphasis on how ozone in the lower stratosphere would respond to natural or anthropogenic changes. The work emphasizes two important aspects: (1) AER's continued participation in preparation of, and providing scientific input for, various scientific reports connected with assessment of stratospheric ozone and climate. These include participation in various model intercomparison exercises as well as preparation of national and international reports. and (2) Continued development of the AER three-wave interactive model to address how the transport circulation will change as ozone and the thermal properties of the atmosphere change, and assess how these new findings will affect our confidence in the ozone assessment results.

Ko, Malcolm K. W.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Coupling Processes Between Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate

This is the final report for NAS5-97039 for work performed between December 1996 and November 1999. The overall objective of this project is to improve the understanding of coupling processes among atmospheric chemistry, aerosol and climate, all important for quantitative assessments of global change. Among our priority are changes in ozone and stratospheric sulfate aerosol, with emphasis on how ozone in the lower stratosphere would respond to natural or anthropogenic changes. The work emphasizes two important aspects: (1) AER's continued participation in preparation of, and providing scientific input for, various scientific reports connected with assessment of stratospheric ozone and climate. These include participation in various model intercomparison exercises as well as preparation of national and international reports. (2) Continued development of the AER three-wave interactive model to address how the transport circulation will change as ozone and the thermal properties of the atmosphere change, and assess how these new findings will affect our confidence in the ozone assessment results.

Ko, Malcolm↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Overview of the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) during 2013-2020

The Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) project is one of the four core projects of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Researchers interested in SPARC use global atmospheric reanalysis products to understand a wide range of processes and variability in the atmosphere, to validate chemistry climate models, and to investigate and identify climate change. The SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) was initiated in 2011 and officially started in 2013 to conduct a coordinated intercomparison of all major global atmospheric reanalysis data sets. The S-RIP has been aiming at writing up an assessment report in the SPARC report series (to be published by the end of 2020) (1) on overall quality of temperature, winds, ozone, and water vapor data, (2) on more process- and region-oriented evaluation of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, extratropical stratosphere-troposphere coupling, extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, the tropical tropopause layer, the quasi-biennial oscillation, polar processes, and the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere, and (3) with a coordinated description of the reanalysis systems. We also have an inter-journal special issue on "The SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP)" in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) and Earth System Science Data (ESSD). In the presentation, we will discuss key findings and recommendations as well as the evaluation of this rst phase of the S-RIP activity.

Masatomo Fujiwara↗
NASA NTRS2003

Status of Middle Atmosphere-Climate Models: Results SPARC-GRIPS

The middle atmosphere is an important component of the climate system, primarily because of the radiative forcing of ozone. Middle atmospheric ozone can change, over long times, because of changes in the abundance of anthropogenic pollutants which catalytically destroy it, and because of the temperature sensitivity of kinetic reaction rates. There is thus a complex interaction between ozone, involving chemical and climatic mechanisms. One question of interest is how ozone will change over the next decades , as the "greenhouse-gas cooling" of the middle atmosphere increases but the concentrations of chlorine species decreases (because of policy changes). concerns the climate biases in current middle atmosphere-climate models, especially their ability to simulate the correct seasonal cycle at high latitudes, and the existence of temperature biases in the global mean. A major obstacle when addressing this question This paper will present a summary of recent results from the "GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC" (GRIPS) initiative. A set of middle atmosphere-climate models has been compared, identifying common biases. Mechanisms for these biases are being studied in some detail, including off-line assessments of the radiation transfer codes and coordinated studies of the impacts of gravity wave drag due to sub-grid-scale processes. ensemble of models will be presented, along with numerical experiments undertaken with one or more models, designed to investigate the mechanisms at work in the atmosphere. The discussion will focus on dynamical and radiative mechanisms in the current climate, but implications for coupled ozone chemistry and the future climate will be assessed.

Pawson, Steven↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Crop Yield Change Emulator for Use in GCAM and Similar Models: Persephone v1.0

Future changes in Earth system state will impact agricultural yields and, through these changed yields, can have profound impacts on the global economy. Global gridded crop models estimate the influence of these Earth system changes on future crop yields but are often too computationally intensive to dynamically couple into global multisector economic models, such as the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and other similar-in-scale models. Yet, generalizing a faster site-specific crop model’s results to be used globally will introduce inaccuracies, and the question of which model to use is unclear given the wide variation in yield response across crop models. To examine the feedback loop among socioeconomics, Earth system changes, and crop yield changes, rapidly generated yield responses with some quantification of crop response uncertainty are desirable. The Persephone v1.0 response functions presented in this work are based on the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) sensitivity test data set and are focused on providing GCAM and similar models with a tractable number of rapid to evaluate dynamic yield response functions corresponding to a range of the yield response sensitivities seen in the C3MP data set. With the Persephone response functions, a new variety of agricultural impact experiments will be open to GCAM and other economic models: for example, examining the economic impacts of a multi-year drought in a key agricultural region and how economic changes in response to the drought can, in turn, impact the drought.

Snyder, Abigail↗
NASA NTRS2017

WCRP Task Team for the Intercomparison of Reanalyses (TIRA): Motivation and Progress

Reanalyses have proven to be an important resource for weather and climate related research, as well as societal applications at large. Several centers have emerged to produce new atmospheric reanalyses in various forms every few years. In addition, land and ocean communities are producing disciplinary uncoupled reanalyses. Current research and development in reanalysis is directed at (1) extending the length of reanalyzed period and (2) use of coupled Earth system models for climate reanalysis. While WCRPs involvement in the reanalyses communities through its Data Advisory Council (WDAC) has been substantial, for example in organizing international conferences on reanalyses, a central team of reanalyses expertise is not in place in the WCRP structure. The differences among reanalyses and their inherent uncertainties are some of the most important questions for both users and developers of reanalyses. Therefore, a collaborative effort to systematically assess and intercompare reanalyses would be a logical progression that fills the needs of the community and contributes to the WCRP mission. The primary charge to the TIRA is to develop a reanalysis intercomparison project plan that will attain the following objectives.1)To foster understanding and estimation of uncertainties in reanalysis data by intercomparison and other means 2)To communicate new developments and best practices among the reanalyses producing centers 3)To enhance the understanding of data and assimilation issues and their impact on uncertainties, leading to improved reanalyses for climate assessment 4)To communicate the strengths and weaknesses of reanalyses, their fitness for purpose, and best practices in the use of reanalysis datasets by the scientific community. This presentation outlines the need for a task team on reanalyses, their intercomparison, the objectives of the team and progress thus far.

WDA↗
NASA NTRS2018

WCRP Task Team for the Intercomparison of ReAnalyses (TIRA): Motivation and Progress

Reanalyses have proven to be an important resource for weather and climate related research, as well as societal applications at large. New atmospheric reanalyses in various forms are produced every few years. In addition, land and ocean communities are producing disciplinary uncoupled reanalyses, and regional reanalyses are emerging in addition to global reanalyses. Systems of data information are being developed to facilitate the intercomparison of reanalyses among themselves and with observations and climate change experiments (e.g. CREATE-IP and WRIT). Current research and development in reanalysis is directed at (1) extending the length of reanalyzed period and (2) use of coupled Earth system models for climate reanalysis. While the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) involvement in the reanalyses communities through its Data Advisory Council (WDAC) has been substantial, for example in organizing international conferences on reanalyses. However, these efforts have previously not included an analysis of the differences among reanalyses and their inherent uncertainties which are important questions for both users and developers of reanalyses. Therefore, the WCRP Task Team for the Intercomparison of ReAnalyses (TIRA) task team has been formed as collaborative effort to address reanalyses role in WCRP. This constitutes a logical progression that fills the needs of the community and contributes to the WCRP mission. The primary charge to TIRA is to develop a reanalysis intercomparison project plan that will attain the following objectives.1)To foster understanding and estimation of uncertainties in reanalysis data by intercomparison and other means)To communicate new developments and best practices among the reanalyses producing centers3)To enhance the understanding of data and assimilation issues and their impact on uncertainties, leading to improved reanalyses for climate assessment4)To communicate the strengths and weaknesses of reanalyses, their fitness for purpose, and best practices in the use of reanalysis datasets by the scientific communityThis contribution outlines the need for a task team on reanalyses, their intercomparison, the objectives of the team and progress thus far. Results for some pilot intercomparisons will also be discussed.

Bosilovich, Michael↗