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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Monitoring agroecosystem productivity and phenology at a national scale: A metric assessment framework

Effective measurement of seasonal variations in the timing and amount of production is critical to managing spatially heterogeneous agroecosystems in a changing climate. Although numerous technologies for such measurements are available, their relationships to one another at a continental extent are unknown. Using data collected from across the Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) network and other networks, we investigated correlations among key metrics representing primary production, phenology, and carbon fluxes in croplands, grazing lands, and crop-grazing integrated systems across the continental U.S. Metrics we examined included gross primary productivity (GPP) estimated from eddy covariance (EC) towers and modelled from the Landsat satellite, Landsat NDVI, and vegetation greenness (Green Chromatic Coordinate, GCC) from tower-mounted PhenoCams for 2017 and 2018. Overall, our analysis compared production dynamics estimated from three independent ground and remote platforms using data for 34 agricultural sites constituting 51 site-years of co-located time series. Pairwise sensor comparisons across all four metrics revealed stronger correlation and lower root mean square error (RMSE) between end of season (EOS) dates (Pearson R ranged from 0.6 to 0.7 and RMSE from 32.5 to 67.8) than start of season (SOS) dates (0.46 to 0.69 and 40.4 to 66.2). Overall, moderate to high correlations between SOS and EOS metrics complemented one another except at some lower productivity grazing land sites where estimating SOS can be challenging. Growing season length estimates derived from 16-day satellite GPP (179.1 days) were significantly longer than those from PhenoCam G CC (70.4 days, p adj < 0.0001) and EC GPP (79.6 days, p adj < 0.0001). Landscape heterogeneity did not explain differences in SOS and EOS estimates. Annual integrated estimates of productivity from EC GPP and PhenoCam G CC diverged from those estimated by Landsat GPP and NDVI at sites where annual production exceeds 1000 gC/m –2 yr –1 . Based on our results, we developed a “metric assessment framework” that articulates where and how metrics from satellite, eddy covariance and PhenoCams complement, diverge from, or are redundant with one another. The framework was designed to optimize instrumentation selection for monitoring, modeling, and forecasting ecosystem functioning with the ultimate goal of informing decision-making by land managers, policy-makers, and industry leaders working at multiple scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Scaling Analysis of Two–Phase Flow in Fractal Permeability Fields

Fluid mixing in permeable media is essential in many practical applications. The mixing process is a consequence of velocity fluctuations owing to geological heterogeneities and mobility contrast of fluids. Heterogeneities in natural rocks are often spatially correlated, and their properties, such as permeability, may be described using fractal distributions. This work models the fractal characteristics of such permeability fields in which the covariance function is expressed as a power-law function. A generalized scaling relation is derived relating various fractal permeability fields using the magnitude of their fluctuations. Here, this relation reveals the self-similar behavior of two-phase flow in such permeable media. To that end, a recently developed, high-resolution numerical simulator is employed to validate the analytically derived scaling relations. Two flow problems are considered in which flow is governed by 1) a linear, and 2) a nonlinear transport equation. Due to the probabilistic representation of the fractal permeability fields, a sensitivity study is conducted for each flow scenario to determine the number of realizations required for statistical convergence. Scaling analysis is performed using ensemble averages of simulated saturation profiles and their mixing lengths. Results support the validity of the developed scaling relation across the range of investigated flow conditions at intermediate times. The dynamics of linear flow in the asymptotic regime is affected by the correlation structure of heterogeneity. In nonlinear flow, scaling behavior appears to be dominated by the degree of nonlinearity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Natural marine cloud brightening in the Southern Ocean

Abstract. The number of cloud droplets per unit volume (Nd) is a fundamentally important property of marine boundary layer (MBL) liquid clouds that, at constant liquid water path, exerts considerable controls on albedo. Past work has shown that regional Nd has a direct correlation to marine primary productivity (PP) because of the role of seasonally varying, biogenically derived precursor gases in modulating secondary aerosol properties. These linkages are thought to be observable over the high-latitude oceans, where strong seasonal variability in aerosol and meteorology covary in mostly pristine environments. Here, we examine Nd variability derived from 5 years of MODIS Level 2-derived cloud properties in a broad region of the summer eastern Southern Ocean and adjacent marginal seas. We demonstrate latitudinal, longitudinal and temporal gradients in Nd that are strongly correlated with the passage of air masses over high-PP waters that are mostly concentrated along the Antarctic Shelf poleward of 60∘ S. We find that the albedo of MBL clouds in the latitudes south of 60∘ S is significantly higher than similar liquid water path (LWP) clouds north of this latitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simple model to investigate jet quenching and correlated errors for centrality-dependent nuclear modification factors in relativistic heavy-ion collisions

Here, we apply Bayesian techniques to compare a simple, empirical model for jet quenching in heavy-ion collisions to centrality-dependent jet R AA measured by ATLAS for Pb + Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV. We find that the R AA values for central collisions are adequately described with a model for the mean p T -dependent jet energy loss using only two parameters. This model is extended by incorporating two-dimensional initial geometry information from TRENTo and compared to centrality-dependent R AA values. We find that the results are sensitive to the value of the jet-quenching formation time, τ ƒ , and that the optimal value of τ ƒ varies with the assumed path-length dependence of the energy loss. We construct a covariance error matrix for the data from the p T -dependent contributions to the ATLAS systematic errors and perform Bayesian calibrations for several different assumptions for the systematic error correlations. We show that the most-probable functions and $χ^2_d$ values are sensitive to assumptions made when fitting to correlated errors. This work demonstrates the utility of a simple model that can quickly demonstrate the constraining power of jet-quenching observables with corresponding uncertainties and guide future studies using more sophisticated models.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Adjusting solar-induced fluorescence to nadir-viewing provides a better proxy for GPP

Solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) provides key information for inferring terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP). However, there is little research on analyzing the performance of nadir-adjusted SIF (SIF nadir ) on GPP, compared to total SIF emitted by all leaves (SIF total ) for reducing the viewing angle effects and estimating GPP. Besides, there have been controversial opinions on whether SIF total is better correlated to GPP than raw SIF observations (SIF obs ). Here we systematically analyzed the relationship between raw/nadir/total SIF (i.e., SIF obs , SIF nadir and SIF total ) and GPP and investigated the underlying mechanism, using multi-angular field measurements and eddy covariance data in wheat and corn crops at sub-daily scale. We further compared the performance of SIF obs , SIF nadir and SIF total in estimating GPP using the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) SIF and concurrent AmeriFlux measurements at daily scale. Furthermore, the results indicate that diurnal SIF nadir has stronger correlations to GPP than SIF obs for field measurements, with the increase of mean coefficient of determination (R 2 ) by 0.05–0.07 for far-red band and 0.11–0.20 for red band. SIF nadir shows comparable performance with SIF total for both far-red and red bands. Although the viewing angle effects dominate the difference in estimating GPP between SIF nadir and SIF obs , the correlation between light use efficiency (LUE) and fesc further determines the different performance of SIF nadir and SIF total in estimating GPP. TROPOMI-based analysis further confirms that SIF nadir overall has higher correlations to AmeriFlux GPP than SIF obs for different plant functional types and shows similar performance with SIF total . Compared to SIF total , the estimation of SIF nadir independent of viewing angle effects does not require any canopy structure parameters, and thus offers promising potential for reliably estimating regional and global GPP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Chiral-like doublet band structure and octupole correlations in 104 Ag

The nature of the yrast negative-parity band and its chiral-like partner band in 104 Ag is investigated experimentally and theoretically. Lifetimes of states in the negative-parity yrast band and positive-parity band based on the 4424-keV level are measured using Doppler shift attenuation technique. Lifetimes of three more states have been determined along with the upper limit for the lifetime of the highest observed yrast states. Further, lifetimes known from earlier studies are determined with better precision. The level scheme of 104 Ag has also been extended with the addition of new enhanced E1 transitions linking the positive-parity band based on the 4424-keV levels and the yrast negative-parity and its partner band. B(E1) and/or B(E1)/B(M1) values for the transitions from the positive-parity band to the yrast and its partner band have been determined for the first time; these suggest strong octupole correlation between the positive-parity and the negative-parity bands. Here, calculations based on the triaxial projected shell model (TPSM) and covariant density functional theory (CDFT) have been performed to unravel the intrinsic structures of the partner band and the excited positive-parity band. TPSM calculations predict that doublet bands have significant angular momentum contributions along the three principle axes, suggesting that bands could have chiral symmetry breaking origin. The CDFT calculations predict a π(g 9/2 ) -1 Ⓧν(h 11/2 )(g 7/2 ,d 5/2 ) 2 aligned quasiparticle configuration for the negative-parity doublet bands with deformation parameters β≈0.20 and γ≈5°. The partner band could be interpreted as a chiral vibration mode built on top of the yrast band. The excited positive-parity band is predicted to have aligned four quasiparticle configurations, namely, π(g 9/2 ) -1 Ⓧν(h 11/2 ) 2 (g 7/2 ,d 5/2 ) 1 . Further, these calculations predict significant octupole softness in 104 Ag which could be the reason for enhanced E1 transitions between the four quasiparticle positive-parity bands and the doublet negative-parity bands.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cross-scale covariance for material property prediction

A simulation can stand its ground against an experiment only if its prediction uncertainty is known. The unknown accuracy of interatomic potentials (IPs) is a major source of prediction uncertainty, severely limiting the use of large-scale classical atomistic simulations in a wide range of scientific and engineering applications. Here we explore covariance between predictions of metal plasticity, from 178 large-scale (~10 8 atoms) molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, and a variety of indicator properties computed at small-scales (≤10 2 atoms). All simulations use the same 178 IPs. In a manner similar to statistical studies in public health, we analyze correlations of strength with indicators, identify the best predictor properties, and build a cross-scale “strength-on-predictors” regression model. This model is then used to estimate regression error over the statistical pool of IPs. Small-scale predictors found to be highly covariant with strength are computed using expensive quantum-accurate calculations and used to predict flow strength, within the statistical error bounds established in our study.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sulfur isotope fractionation between aqueous and carbonate-associated sulfate in abiotic calcite and aragonite

Sulfate (SO 4 2– ) incorporated into calcium carbonate minerals enables measurements of sulfur (S) isotope ratios in carbonate rocks. This Carbonate Associated Sulfate (CAS) in marine carbonate minerals is thought to faithfully represent the S isotope composition of the seawater sulfate incorporated into the mineral, with little or no S isotope fractionation in the process. However, comparison between different calcifying species reveals both positive and negative S isotope fractionation between CAS and seawater sulfate, and a large range of S isotope ratios can be found within a single rock sample, depending on the component measured. To better understand the isotopic effects associated with sulfate incorporation into carbonate minerals, we precipitated inorganic calcite and aragonite over a range covering more than two orders of magnitude of sulfate concentration and precipitation rate. Coupled measurements of CAS concentration, S isotope composition and X-ray absorption near-edge spectra (XANES) permit characterization and explanation of the observed dependence of S isotope fractionation between CAS and aqueous sulfate (CAS-SO 4 2– isotope fractionation) on sulfate concentration and precipitation rate. In aragonite, the CAS-SO 4 2– isotope fractionation is 1.0 ± 0.3‰ and independent of the sulfate (and CAS) concentration. In contrast, we note the CAS-SO 4 2– isotope fractionation in calcite covaries strongly with the sulfate concentration and weakly with the precipitation rate, between values of 1.3 ± 0.1 and 3.1 ± 0.6‰. We suggest that the correlation between aqueous sulfate concentration and CAS-SO 4 2– isotope fractionation in calcite reflects a dependence of the equilibrium S isotope fractionation on the concentration of CAS, through the effect of the sulfate impurity on the carbonate mineral’s energetic state.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Strong Correspondence in Evapotranspiration and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes Between Different Eddy Covariance Systems Enables Quantification of Landscape Heterogeneity in Dryland Fluxes

Abstract The eddy covariance method is widely used to investigate fluxes of energy, water, and carbon dioxide at landscape scales, providing important information on how ecological systems function. Flux measurements quantify ecosystem responses to environmental perturbations and management strategies, including nature‐based climate‐change mitigation measures. However, due to the high cost of conventional instrumentation, most eddy covariance studies employ a single system, limiting spatial representation to the flux footprint. Insufficient replication may be limiting our understanding of ecosystem behavior. To address this limitation, we deployed eight lower‐cost eddy covariance systems in two clusters around two conventional eddy covariance systems in the Chihuahuan Desert of North America for a period of 2 years. These dryland settings characterized by large temperature variations and relatively low carbon dioxide fluxes represented a challenging setting for eddy covariance. We found very good closure of energy and water balance across all systems (within ±9% of unity). We found very good correspondence between the lower‐cost and conventional systems' fluxes of sensible heat (with concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) of ≥0.87), latent energy (evapotranspiration; CCC ≥ 0.89), and useful correspondence in the net ecosystem exchange ((NEE); with CCC ≥ 0.4) at the daily temporal resolution. Relative to the conventional systems, the low‐frequency systems were characterized by a higher level of random error, particularly in the NEE fluxes. Lower‐cost systems can enable wider deployment affording better replication and sampling of spatiotemporal variability at the expense of greater measurement noise that might be limiting for certain applications. Replicated eddy covariance observations may be useful when addressing gaps in the existing monitoring of critical and underrepresented ecosystems and for measuring areas larger than a single flux footprint.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying Gaussian Process Machine Learning and Modern Probabilistic Programming to Satellite Data to Infer CO 2 Emissions

Satellite data provides essential insights into the spatiotemporal distribution of CO 2 concentrations. However, many atmospheric inverse models fail to adequately incorporate the spatial and temporal correlations inherent in satellite observations and often lack rigorous methods for estimating parameters like spatial length scales. We introduce an inference model that processes the spatiotemporal covariance in satellite data and estimates hyperparameters such as covariance length scales. Our approach uses the Gaussian process (GP) machine learning (ML) and modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) to perform atmospheric inversions of emissions from satellite data. We develop a GP ML inversion system based on modern PPLs and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, simulating atmospheric CO 2 concentrations corresponding to the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2/3 (OCO-2/3) data for July 2020. In our supervised learning framework, we treat the GEOS-Chem simulated data set as the target, with predictors derived by scaling the target with sector-specific factors hidden from the GP machine. Our results show that the GP model, combined with GPU-enabled PPLs, effectively retrieves true emission scaling factors and infers noise levels concealed within the data. This suggests that our method could be applied over larger areas with more complex covariance structures, enabling comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns observed in OCO-2/3 and similar satellite data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Preparation of Nuclear Data Libraries for Web Release [Slides] and Tutorial for Generating Correlated Random Samples and Propagation of Uncertainty [Slides]

The first presentation discuses moving distribution of nuclear data to an online platform which allows ore frequent nuclear data updates, greater ease of acquiring nuclear data, and user flexibility in what nuclear data to download. The second presentation illustrates uncertainties without correlation, uncertainties without correlation with negative samples, uncertainties with correlation, uncertainties with a χ-like constraint, uncertainties with a Σ tot -like constraint, sampling using different distributions, and dealing with negative eigenvalues in a covariance matrix.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ab initio calculations of overlap integrals for μ → e conversion in nuclei

The rate for μ → e conversion in nuclei is set to provide the most stringent test of lepton-flavor symmetry and a window into physics beyond the Standard Model. However, to disentangle new lepton-flavor-violating interactions, in combination with information from μ → ey and μ → 3e, it is critical that uncertainties at each step of the analysis be controlled and fully quantified. In this regard, nuclear response functions related to the coupling to neutrons are notoriously problematic, since they are not directly constrained by experiment. We address these shortcomings by combining ab initio calculations with a recently improved determination of charge distributions from electron scattering by exploiting strong correlations among charge, point-proton, and point-neutron radii and densities. We present overlap integrals for 27 Al, 48 Ca, and 48 Ti including full covariance matrices, allowing, for the first time, for a comprehensive consideration of nuclear structure uncertainties in the interpretation of μ → e experiments.

ab initio calculations↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Galaxy mock catalogs for BAO analysis

The calibration and validation of scientific analysis in simulations is a fundamental tool to ensure unbiased and robust results in observational cosmology. In particular, mock galaxy catalogs are a crucial resource to achieve these goals in the measurement of baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) in the clustering of galaxies. Here we present a set of 1952 galaxy mock catalogs designed to mimic the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 BAO sample over its full photometric redshift range 0.6 < zphoto < 1.1. The mocks are based upon 488 ICE-COLA fast N-body simulations of full-sky light cones and were created by populating halos with galaxies, using a hybrid halo occupation distribution – halo abundance matching model. This model has ten free parameters, which were determined, for the first time, using an automatic likelihood minimization procedure. We also introduced a novel technique to assign photometric redshift for simulated galaxies, following a two-dimensional probability distribution with VIMOS Public Extragalactic Redshift Survey data. The calibration was designed to match the observed abundance of galaxies as a function of photometric redshift, the distribution of photometric redshift errors, and the clustering amplitude on scales smaller than those used for BAO measurements. An exhaustive analysis was done to ensure that the mocks reproduce the input properties. Finally, mocks were tested by comparing the angular correlation function w(θ), angular power spectrum Cℓ, and projected clustering ξp(r⊥) to theoretical predictions and data. The impact of volume replication in the estimate of the covariance is also investigated. The success in accurately reproducing the photometric redshift uncertainties and the galaxy clustering as a function of redshift render this mock creation pipeline as a benchmark for future analyses of photometric galaxy surveys.Key words: catalogs / large-scale structure of Universe / galaxies: distances and redshifts / Galaxy: halo / methods: numerical

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust Statistical Approach for Determination of Graphite Nitridation Using Bayesian Model Comparison

A better estimation of surface reaction efficiency of semiconductor-grade graphite with atomic nitrogen, as well as the calibration error are calculated using Bayesian updating based on experimental data. Compared with a conventional deterministic model, the stochastic model approach is a powerful tool in the sense that the model is capable of taking into account underlying error correlations among the data quantities. In this paper, we investigate four different stochastic models (called “stochastic system model classes” herein) corresponding to different descriptions of modeling and measurement error structures, given one deterministic physical model. These stochastic system model classes differ in the covariance matrix structure that is used in the uncertainty model to represent uncertainties associated with the physical model and experimental measurements. For each model class, Bayesian inference is used to estimate the posterior probabilities of the physical model parameters as well as of the stochastic model parameters. Model comparison and selection are then applied based on two measures including Bayesian evidence and Bayesian information criterion, as well as the deviance information criterion. Both measures suggest the stochastic model class, which considers that a correlation between errors in two data quantities among different data points is the most plausible. With the stochastic model class, the range of uncertainty in surface reaction efficiency is estimated to be about two orders of magnitude at [Formula: see text].

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

Combination of cluster number counts and two-point correlations: validation on mock Dark Energy Survey

ABSTRACT We present a method of combining cluster abundances and large-scale two-point correlations, namely galaxy clustering, galaxy–cluster cross-correlations, cluster autocorrelations, and cluster lensing. This data vector yields comparable cosmological constraints to traditional analyses that rely on small-scale cluster lensing for mass calibration. We use cosmological survey simulations designed to resemble the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES-Y1) data to validate the analytical covariance matrix and the parameter inferences. The posterior distribution from the analysis of simulations is statistically consistent with the absence of systematic biases detectable at the precision of the DES-Y1 experiment. We compare the χ2 values in simulations to their expectation and find no significant difference. The robustness of our results against a variety of systematic effects is verified using a simulated likelihood analysis of DES-Y1-like data vectors. This work presents the first-ever end-to-end validation of a cluster abundance cosmological analysis on galaxy catalogue level simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistical analysis of correlations in the x-ray induced Coulomb explosion of iodopyridine

Coulomb explosion imaging is a promising experimental tool to study individual molecules. Here, in this work simulation data for the x-ray induced Coulomb explosion of 2-iodopyridine is analyzed and the involved fragmentation dynamics are described. It is found that particular final ion momenta show correlations that reflect a collision of two atoms during the explosion. Variations of the proton kinetic energies can be associated with variations in the charge build-up time. Covariances of the forces during the explosion can be utilized to simplify the description of the dynamics in reduced dimensionality using only four collective coordinates.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evidence for widespread thermal acclimation of canopy photosynthesis

Plants acclimate to temperature by adjusting their photosynthetic capacity over weeks to months. However, most evidence for photosynthetic acclimation derives from leaf-scale experiments. Here we address the scarcity of evidence for canopy-scale photosynthetic acclimation by examining the correlation between maximum photosynthetic rates (A max,2,000 ) and growth temperature $(\overline{T_{air}})$ across a range of concurrent temperatures and canopy foliage quantity, using data from >200 eddy covariance sites. We detect widespread thermal acclimation of canopy-scale photosynthesis, demonstrated by enhanced A max,2,000 under higher $\overline{T_{air}}$, across flux sites with adequate water availability. A 14-day period is identified as the most relevant timescale for acclimation across all sites, with a range of 12-25 days for different plant functional types. The mean apparent thermal acclimation rate across all ecosystems is 0.41 (-0.38-1.04 for 5th-95th percentile range) µmol m -2 s -1 °C -1 , with croplands showing the largest acclimation rates and grasslands the lowest. Incorporating an optimality-based prediction of leaf photosynthetic capacities into a biochemical photosynthesis model is shown to improve the representation of thermal acclimation. Our results underscore the critical need for enhanced understanding and modelling of canopy-scale photosynthetic capacity to accurately predict plant responses to warmer growing seasons.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantum chaos, integrability, and late times in the Krylov basis

Quantum chaotic systems are conjectured to display a spectrum whose fine-grained features (gaps and correlations) are well described by random matrix theory (RMT). We propose and develop a complementary version of this conjecture: quantum chaotic systems display a Lanczos spectrum whose local means and covariances are well described by RMT. To support this proposal, we first demonstrate its validity in examples of chaotic and integrable systems. We then show that for Haar-random initial states in RMTs the mean and covariance of the Lanczos spectrum suffice to produce the full long-time behavior of general survival probabilities including the spectral form factor, as well as the spread complexity. In addition, for initial states with continuous overlap with energy eigenstates, we analytically find the long-time averages of the probabilities of Krylov basis elements in terms of the mean Lanczos spectrum. This analysis suggests a notion of eigenstate complexity, the statistics of which differentiate integrable systems and classes of quantum chaos. Lastly, we clarify the relation between spread complexity and the universality classes of RMT by exploring various values of the Dyson index and Poisson distributed spectra.

Combinatorics↗