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NASA NTRS1998

On the Correlation Between Maximum Amplitude and Smoothed Monthly Mean Sunspot Number during the Rise of the Cycle (from t = 0-48 months Past Sunspot Minimum)

During the rise from sunspot minimum to maximum, the observed value of smoothed monthly mean sunspot number at maximum RM is found to correlate with increasing strength against the current value of smoothed monthly mean sunspot number R(t), where t is the elapsed time in months from minimum. On the basis of the modern era sunspot cycles (i.e., cycles 10-22), the inferred linear correlation is found to be statistically important (i.e., at the 95-percent level of confidence) from about 11 mo past minimum and statistically very important (i.e.. at the 99-percent level of confidence) from about 15 mo past minimum; ignoring cycle 19, the largest cycle of the modern era, the inferred linear correlation is found to be statistically important from cycle onset. On the basis of R(t), estimates of RM can be gauged usually to within about +/- 30 percent during the first 2 yr and to within about +/- 20 percent (or better) after the first 2 yr of a cycle's onset. For cycle 23, because controversy exists regarding the placement of its minimum (i.e., its onset), being either May 1996 or perhaps August 1996 (or shortly thereafter), estimates of its RM are divergent, being lower (more like a mean size cycle) when using the earlier epoch of minimum and higher (above average in size) when using the later-occurring minimum. For smoothed monthly mean sunspot number through October 1997 (t = 17 or 14 mo, respectively), having a provisional value of 32.0. the earlier minimum date projects an RM of 110.3 +/- 33.1, while the later minimum date projects one of 137.2 +/- 41.2. The projection is slowly decreasing in size using the earlier onset date, while it is slowly increasing in size using the later onset date.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2008

A New, Highly Improved Two-Cycle Engine

The figure presents a cross-sectional view of a supercharged, variable-compression, two-cycle, internal-combustion engine that offers significant advantages over prior such engines. The improvements are embodied in a combination of design changes that contribute synergistically to improvements in performance and economy. Although the combination of design changes and the principles underlying them are complex, one of the main effects of the changes on the overall engine design is reduced (relative to prior two-cycle designs) mechanical complexity, which translates directly to reduced manufacturing cost and increased reliability. Other benefits include increases in the efficiency of both scavenging and supercharging. The improvements retain the simplicity and other advantages of two-cycle engines while affording increases in volumetric efficiency and performance across a wide range of operating conditions that, heretofore have been accessible to four-cycle engines but not to conventionally scavenged two-cycle ones, thereby increasing the range of usefulness of the two-cycle engine into all areas now dominated by the four-cycle engine. The design changes and benefits are too numerous to describe here in detail, but it is possible to summarize the major improvements: Reciprocating Shuttle Inlet Valve The entire reciprocating shuttle inlet valve and its operating gear is constructed as a single member. The shuttle valve is actuated in a lost-motion arrangement in which, at the ends of its stroke, projections on the shuttle valve come to rest against abutments at the ends of grooves in a piston skirt. This shuttle-valve design obviates the customary complex valve mechanism, actuated from an engine crankshaft or camshaft, yet it is effective with every type of two-cycle engine, from small high-speed single cylinder model engines, to large low-speed multiple cylinder engines.

Wiesen, Bernard↗

NASA NTRS2010

Polar Chromospheric Signatures of the Subdued Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum

Coronal holes appear brighter than the quiet Sun in microwave images, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is about 10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radioheliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approximately 250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes.

Gopalswamy, N.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Chromospheric Signatures of the Subdued Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum in Microwaves

Coronal holes appear brighter than the quiet Sun in microwave images, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is about 10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radio-heliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approx.250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes.

Yashiro, S.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Transmutations Observed from Pressure Cycling Palladium Silver Metals with Deuterium Gas

Hydrogen, deuterium, and helium gases were separately cycled through a Johnson-Mattheypurifier containing coiled palladium silver alloy tubing: Pd25Ag (75 wt% Pd and 25 wt% Ag).During the cycling of D2 gas, evidence of anomalous heat production was observed. However,during the cycling of H2 and He,very little (H2) or no (He) unusual heat events were observed.After cycling the D2 gas through the coiled tubing for several months, Pd25Ag samples showedan increase in Cu and Fe compared with the amounts in unexposed Pd25Ag. Chromium,manganese, and zinc were detected in gas-cycled Pd25Ag samples, whereas they were notdetected in unexposed Pd25Ag samples. In particular, Zn was present in the gas-cycled Pd25Agmaterial in larger quantities than either Cr or Mn. Although a small amount of Cu was present inthe Pd25Ag coil before the D2 gas cycling, 7 times more was present after the cycling. Multiplematerial characterization techniques were used to obtain both pre-test and post-test elementalcomposition. The results indicate that novel post-test elements, primarily on the surface, werecreated by unknown nuclear mechanisms at low energy.

Gustave C Fralick↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Disorder to Order in Interface Patterns: Thermal Noise to Limit Cycle Transition in Dendrite Sidebranch Formation

Thin sample directional solidification experiments have been carried out in the model succinonitrile-camphor system to examine the origin of secondary branches in dendrite morphologies. Thermal noise at the dendrite tip creates interface instabilities which amplify to form sidebranches. This is accepted as the primary mode of sidebranching in dendritic growth from an undercooled melt and occurs in directional solidification of dendrites. The proposed limit cycle couples the growth of the tip with the initiation of the sidebranch. Directional solidification of curved interfaces is a driven dissipative system with the potential to form a limit cycle. Two sets of experiments were performed, the first holding velocity constant and evolving the gradient and the second imposing oscillating velocities around the natural period of sidebranching. Both experimental methods were found to characterize a transition from disordered sidebranching induced by thermal noise to ordered sidebranching produced by the limit cycle mechanisms. This is the first quantitative measurement of previously hypothesized limit cycle growth. These experiment sets have been quantitatively analyzed for dynamic behavior seen in limit cycles. High-quality data sets of the tip and instability enable the measurement of the FFT and analysis through a power spectrum. At low gradients, the sidebranches are found to be excited by thermal noise far away from the tip. As the gradient increases and velocity is held constant, the distance between the instability and tip decreases until limit cycle growth is found between the tip of the primary dendrite and the first forming sidebranch. An alternative to the deterministic limit cycles seen in experiments of gradient evolution is a limit cycle actively driven through the square wave oscillation of velocity. Crucial observations of the solidified microstructure conclude that this produced periodic interconnected bridges between the primary dendrites. This is a finding with potentially significant implications for commercial applications.

Trevor Lyons↗

NASA NTRS2018

Future of the North American Carbon Cycle: Chapter - 19

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, primarily due to fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, are expected to continue to drive changes in both climate and the terrestrial and ocean carbon cycles. Over the past two-to-three decades, there has been considerable effort to understand how terrestrial and oceanic systems behave (in response to rising atmospheric CO2 and changing climate conditions), quantify the dynamics of system responses to environmental change, and project how the ocean and terrestrial carbon cycle will interact with, and influence, future atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate. In this presentation, we will summarize key findings related to projected changes to the North American carbon cycle and drivers and associated consequences of these changes, as reported in Chapter 19 of the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2). The findings not only capture projections of emissions from fossil fuel and changes in land cover and land use, but also highlight the decline in future carbon uptake capacity of North American carbon reservoirs and soil carbon losses from the Northern high-latitudes. Such a discussion of future carbon cycle changes is new in SOCCR-2, yet timely. It underlines the progress made since the release of the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-1) in 2007 in identifying the vulnerability of key carbon pools and their co-evolution with changing climatic conditions. We will also discuss key knowledge gaps and outline a set of future research priorities, including both monitoring and modeling activities, that are necessary to improve projections of future changes to the North American carbon cycle and associated adaptation and resource-management decisions.

North America↗

NASA NTRS2018

An Early Prediction of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

A “Solar Dynamo” (SODA) Index prediction of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 is described. The SODA Index combines values of the solar polar magnetic field and the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm to create a precursor of future solar activity. The result is an envelope of solar activity that minimizes the 11-year period of the sunspot cycle. We show that the variation in time of the SODA Index is similar to several wavelet transforms of the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm. Polar field predictions for Solar Cycles 21 – 24 are used to show the success of the polar field precursor in previous sunspot cycles. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle’s smoothed peak activity will be about 140 ± 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a Version 2 sunspot number of 135 ± 25. This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 2025.2 ± 1.5 year. Because the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve as the upcoming solar minimum draws closer.

Solar Cycle Predictions↗

NASA NTRS2018

Global Changes in the Diurnal Cycle of Surface Ozone

Changing emissions of NOx and other ozone precursors drive trends in both production and loss of surface ozone, leading to surface ozone trends that differ according to the time of day. Consequently, the magnitude of the diurnal cycle in surface ozone is changing in several regions of the world. Changes in the diurnal cycle of ozone have implications for the metrics used to assess the impact of ozone on human health and vegetation, since different metrics are sensitive to different portions of the diurnal cycle. We use a high resolution model simulation to examine global changes in the magnitude of the diurnal cycle of O3 between 1980 and 2015. The simulation reproduces the negative trends in the tropospheric NO2 column over the eastern United States and Europe, and the positive trends over East Asia, seen by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). It also gives a reasonable reproduction of the change in the diurnal cycle of surface ozone seen at rural sites in the eastern United States between the 1990s and 2000s. The simulation shows that the magnitude of the surface O3 diurnal cycle is increasing in regions with positive changes in NOx emissions, such as South and East Asia, and decreasing in regions with reductions in NOx emissions. It also shows changes in the diurnal cycle of the tropospheric ozone column, although these have fewer regions with statistically significant trends. These changes suggest that daily mean ozone is responding less than the mid-day ozone measured by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and OMI.

Trends↗

NASA NTRS2019

An Analysis of the Strayton Engine, a Brayton and Stirling Cycle Recuperating Engine

This paper explores the novel Strayton engine concept. This engine combines the cycles of a Brayton engine with that of a Stirling engine to create a highly efficient recuperating gas turbine engine. In the explored case, both Brayton cycle and Stirling cycle engines are used to generate electrical power. Additionally, the Stirling engine is used to draw heat out of the Brayton turbine (acting to cool the turbine blades), while also pumping heat into Brayton cycle just before combustion occurs (acting as the mechanism for recuperation). The purpose of this paper is to detail the system level modeling techniques used to generate the simulation, perform a cycle analysis of the combined cycle engine, identify key technologies and challenges associated with the concept, and compare potential performance gains with existing gas turbine engines and internal combustion engines. Topics such as controls, blade cooling effects, engine weight, and heat transfer using heat pipe are also explored. Results from this work show potential architectures that could provide the required heat transfer rates, potential control strategies, and performance benefits, including efficiency gains between 10% and 3% on engines ranging from 200HP to 670HP with the combined cycle engine.

Gas turbine engine↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU) Pressure Garment System (PGS) Cycle Testing Overview and Results

With the development of NASA’s next generation spacesuit, the hardware life expectations for the new spacesuit required evaluation. The xPGS team designed and performed a test series to assess the new hardware against the life requirements. The EMU on the International Space Station (ISS) today tests the life of the suit and new components by performing isometric individual joint cycle motions with the requirements based on previously performed Extra-Vehicular Activities (EVAs). The xPGS includes new designs for suit components to provide increased mobility for performance of lunar operations, thus the requirements for the life cycle of the suit had to be developed and tested with these new operations in mind. Cycle requirements shifted to cycles of functional tasks in lieu of isometric cycles to better understand the life of the suit. Manned cycle testing of the xPGS was conducted by performing repetitions of a series of tasks that reflect predicted Lunar EVA operations. The test series utilized a gravity offload system to simulate Lunar gravity environment. Cycle testing concluded after 30 test days in October of 2022 with lessons learned that will be critical for future spacesuit design. Specific lessons learned with regards to suit performance and test methodology will be provided.

spacesuit↗

NASA NTRS1976

System studies of coal fired-closed cycle MHD for central station power plants

This paper presents a discussion of the closed-cycle MHD results obtained in a recent study of various advanced energy-conversion power systems. The direct coal-fired MHD topping-steam bottoming cycle was established as the current choice for central station power generation. Emphasis is placed on the background assumptions and the conclusions that can be drawn from the closed-cycle MHD analysis. It is concluded that closed-cycle MHD has efficiencies comparable to that of open-cycle MHD. Its cost will possibly be slightly higher than that of the open-cycle MHD system. Also, with reasonable fuel escalation assumptions, both systems can produce lower-cost electricity than conventional steam power plants. Suggestions for further work in closed-cycle MHD components and systems are made.

Zauderer, B.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Status of the DOE /STOR/-sponsored national program on hydrogen production from water via thermochemical cycles

A pure thermochemical cycle is a system of linked regenerative chemical reactions which accepts only water and heat and produces hydrogen. Thermochemical cycles are potentially a more efficient and cheaper means of producing hydrogen from water than is the generation of electricity followed by electrolysis. The Energy Storage Systems Division of the Department of Energy is currently funding a national program on thermochemical hydrogen production. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is responsible for the technical management of this program. The goal is to develop a cycle which can potentially operate with an efficiency greater than 40% using a heat source providing a maximum available temperature of 1150 K. A closed bench-scale demonstration of such a cycle would follow. This cycle would be labeled a 'reference cycle' and would serve as a baseline against which future cycles would be compared.

Baker, C. E.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Solar flare protons and alpha particles during the last three solar cycles

This paper presents solar-flare-associated proton and alpha-particle fluxes determined for major events from October 1972 through March 1987 (the period that represents the last part of solar cycle 20 and the whole of solar cycle 21), using data obtained by detectors on board the IMP-7 and IMP-8 satellites, along with earlier obtained data for cycle 20. It was found that the average omnidirectional flux of protons with kinetic energy above 10 MeV for cycle 21 (64/sq cm per sec) is lower than the corresponding number for cycle 20 (92/sq cm per sec) and for the cycle 19 (378/sq cm per sec). No definitive correlation was found to exist between cycle-averaged solar flare proton fluxes and peak sunspot numbers.

Goswami, J. N.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Bimodality and the Hale cycle

Evidence is provided of a modulation of between 20 and 24 yr for the Hale cycle, and comparison of consecutive pairs of cycles strongly suggests that even-numbered cycles are preferentially paired with odd-numbered following cycles. The results indicate that cycles 22 and 23 form a new cyle pair. The sum of monthly mean sunspot numbers over consecutively paired sunspot cycles for Hale cycle 12 is found to be about 19,100 + or - 3000.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A transient plasticity study and low cycle fatigue analysis of the Space Station Freedom photovoltaic solar array blanket

The Space Station Freedom photovoltaic solar array blanket assembly is comprised of several layers of materials having dissimilar elastic, thermal, and mechanical properties. The operating temperature of the solar array, which ranges from -75 to +60 C, along with the material incompatibility of the blanket assembly components combine to cause an elastic-plastic stress in the weld points of the assembly. The weld points are secondary structures in nature, merely serving as electrical junctions for gathering the current. The thermal mechanical loading of the blanket assembly operating in low earth orbit continually changes throughout each 90 min orbit, which raises the possibility of fatigue induced failure. A series of structural analyses were performed in an attempt to predict the fatigue life of the solar cell in the Space Station Freedom photovoltaic array blanket. A nonlinear elastic-plastic MSC/NASTRAN analysis followed by a fatigue calculation indicated a fatigue life of 92,000 to 160,000 cycles for the solar cell weld tabs. Additional analyses predict a permanent buckling phenomenon in the copper interconnect after the first loading cycle. This should reduce or eliminate the pulling of the copper interconnect on the joint where it is welded to the silicon solar cell. It is concluded that the actual fatigue life of the solar array blanket assembly should be significantly higher than the calculated 92,000 cycles, and thus the program requirement of 87,500 cycles (orbits) will be met. Another important conclusion that can be drawn from the overall analysis is that, the strain results obtained from the MSC/NASTRAN nonlinear module are accurate to use for low-cycle fatigue analysis, since both thermal cycle testing of solar cells and analysis have shown higher fatigue life than the minimum program requirement of 87,500 cycles.

Armand, Sasan C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Interleaving Magellan altimetry data acquisition between mapping cycles 1 and 2

The Magellan spacecraft has been systematically mapping the surface of Venus since September 15, 1990, using side-looking synthetic aperture radar imaging and nadir-pointed altimetry. Venus rotates slowly under the nearly polar mapping orbit, completing a full revolution in 243 days, one 'mapping cycle'. The altimeter collects a 10 km swath of altitude measurements each orbit. The groundtrack advances 21 km each orbit due to the rotation of Venus, leaving an 11 km gap of unmeasured terrain. To obtain global surface coverage by the altimeter, these gaps are eliminated by interleaving the swaths collected during the second mapping cycle with those from the first mapping cycle. Interleaving was put into effect by a propulsive maneuver, executed at the end of the first mapping cycle, on May 17, 1991. The orbit node was changed by +0.106 degrees, so that the cycle 2 groundtracks would bisect adjacent cycle 1 groundtracks. This paper describes the maneuver design and execution results, including the problem and solution of the groundtrack prediction to the end of the first mapping cycle.

Engelhardt, D. B.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Cosmic ray modulation near the onset and maximum phases of solar activity cycle 22

Using data obtained with neutron monitors we study the cosmic-ray modulation of the five-year developmental phase of solar activity cycle (SAC) 22. The main characteristics of the observed modulation are compared with those of cycle 19. The similarities and differences between the two cycles are noted. The data indicate that the amplitude of the observed modulation is larger at higher and lower primary rigidities than that for cycle 19, which still remains the most active cycle. The lowest ever monthly-mean counting rates were obtained in June 1991. Even so, based upon our prior experience, we expect the recovery of the cosmic ray intensity in SAC 22 to follow the pattern observed for cycles 20 and 18, rather than that for cycle 19.

Ahluwalia, H. S.↗