Ice Sheets System Model : Sensitivity Analysis : User Guide (Dakota)
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2021 NETL Workshop on Multiphase Flow Science, Virtual, August 3-5, 2021
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The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) was awarded a contract by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) Oil and Gas Research Program (NDIC No. G-051-101) to conduct a study on the recycling of water used in oil and gas operations, also known as produced water, from oil- and gas-producing regions of North Dakota as directed by Section 19 of North Dakota House Bill 1014. This final report provides a compilation of results of the study, which include regulatory, scientific, technological, and feasibility methods and considerations associated with North Dakota produced water management. The report provides a synopsis of this project’s previously submitted produced water assessment report entitled “Produced Water Management and Recycling Options in North Dakota” (Energy & Environmental Research Center, 2020), with updated values provided as appropriate. The report provides the results from the investigation of a novel produced water management strategy, referred to as geologic homogenization, conditioning, and reuse (GHCR), which aims to use a subsurface geologic formation as a natural medium for managing produced water recycling and reuse. Water management is a significant technical and economic challenge for sustainable oil and gas production, and water volumes are intrinsically linked to oil production volumes. North Dakota oil production rose to over 1.5 million barrels (MMbbl)/day in 2019, and despite a downturn in oil price in early 2020, North Dakota oil production has recovered to 1.1 MMbbl/day as of August 2021. Bakken petroleum system development between 2008 and 2020 has resulted in a nearly fourfold increase in produced water volumes to 642 MMbbl/yr in 2020 after peaking at 740 MMbbl/yr in 2019 and a fivefold increase in saltwater disposal (SWD) volumes to 565 MMbbl/yr in 2020 after a peak of 682 MMbbl/yr in 2019. Produced water and SWD volumes are forecasted to double by 2030. SWD is the primary method of produced water management used in North Dakota, with approximately 95% of the SWD volume occurring through subsurface injection into sandstones of the Dakota Group (Dakota). Localized pressurization of the Dakota resulting from SWD and projected increases in produced water volumes could impact the economics of North Dakota oil production. As a result, there is an emerging need to pursue alternative produced water management approaches, including recycling and reuse. While produced water recycling is not yet widespread, commercial operators are making strides in overcoming the technical challenges of using high salinity produced water in completion operations (Marathon Oil, 2020). As water management continues to be a key focal point in companies’ environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives, focus on water management, including recycling, will likely continue to increase. Laboratory column testing, field sample collection, geologic modeling and numerical simulation, and techno-economic analysis all indicate that GHCR could feasibly be implemented as a potential water management option. Laboratory column testing and field sample collection indicate that the Inyan Kara sandstone and native formation fluid are capable of homogenizing with the Bakken produced water to a point where the fluid composition appears to stabilize. Extracting that stabilized fluid could be considered homogeneous and capable of providing individual batches of hydraulic fracturing fluid. Numerical simulation results indicate that extraction of fluids from the Inyan Kara in a GHCR implementation scenario is capable of reducing formation pressure, which would help ease localized pressurization of the Inyan Kara and extend the available capacity for nearby existing SWD wells. Economic analysis indicates that there are scenarios where GHCR implementation can be a competitive or even lower-cost option than a conventional water management approach. Site-specific conditions will dictate the economic potential of GHCR, but potentially attractive sites for GHCR implementation will be those that are located above a pressurized zone of the Inyan Kara, need six or more Bakken infill wells, and face high costs for conventional SWD and/or freshwater. Based on the regulatory review, drilling into the Inyan Kara for SWD and to harness as a source water for industrial use have precedent in North Dakota, and a workable regulatory solution for GHCR seems likely. However, restrictions in the state regarding surface storage and transport of produced fluids may limit some activities, which will affect how GHCR could ultimately be implemented. In summary, this study reveals pursuing GHCR can be a viable approach to water management in North Dakota. The GHCR concept addresses some of the challenges that hinder the more traditional approaches to recycling in the industry. Furthermore, an assessment of the current landscape of water management within the state reveals the ongoing trend of increasing volumes of produced water and SWD. Projections reveal that the volumes of produced water that need to be managed are expected to double over the next decade (Energy & Environmental Research Center, 2020). With the continued development of the Bakken and continuing driving factors related to ESG initiatives, implementing a practice such as GHCR is a feasible approach to adding recycling of produced water to industry within the state. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission Oil and Gas Research Program. References Energy & Environmental Research Center, 2020, Produced water management and recycling options in North Dakota: Final Report for North Dakota Legislative Management Energy Development and Transmission Committee and North Dakota Industrial Commission. Marathon Oil, 2020, Sustainability report: https://cdn.sanity.io/files/ghcnw9z2/website/ 91744eb6ef8fbe59505a911c6b8d2e8dd9a537fa.pdf?dl (accessed November 2021).
The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), the EERC’s State Energy Research Center (SERC), MPLX Operations LLC, and TC Energy Development Holdings Inc. (a subsidiary of TC Energy Corporation), studied the potential for subsurface hydrogen storage and recovery in the Williston Basin of western North Dakota. The project’s goal was to evaluate the feasibility of large-scale, secure geologic H 2 storage to support future hydrogen generation, storage, and use. This work included laboratory testing, H 2 –rock–fluid exposure experiments, literature reviews on H 2 embrittlement, and reservoir modeling and simulations. The study included an assessment of storage potential across three types of storage reservoirs using both reservoir simulation and DOE’s web-based tool SHASTA-HELP (Subsurface Hydrogen Assessment, Storage, and Technology Acceleration – Hydrogen Estimator for Logistical Planning), as well as investigation of potential H 2 production and markets for commercial-scale deployment. Building on prior EERC gas storage research, three storage options were selected for detailed evaluation: the Broom Creek Formation (a clastic saline reservoir), the Dickinson Lodgepole Mounds (DLM) complex (carbonate mud mound structures) of the Lodgepole Formation (an active oil and gas producing reservoir), and the Dunham Salt Interval of the Piper Formation (to be used for engineered salt cavern development). These targets were prioritized based on prior EERC research using datasets related to seal capacity, reservoir quality, mechanical integrity, and injectivity. Exposure tests on Broom Creek and DLM samples showed mineral dissolution and precipitation that increased brine salinity and altered reservoir rock surfaces. Although these results provide useful insight, they are limited by small sample sizes and short-term (30-day) exposure, requiring further study to assess long-term storage integrity. Salt formations were not tested because of their known nonreactivity and established mechanical stability. Results of reservoir simulations performed for a single site demonstrated that the Broom Creek Formation may be capable of receiving up to 42,000 tonnes of injected H 2 over 7 months via one well. H 2 recovery took place over 5 months, resulting in approximately 26,000 tonnes (~62% without cushion gas [CG]). This work suggests water production may be important and subsequent cycles of injection and production may perform more efficiently; however, significant site-specific work in the future is needed to assess actual reservoir performance of injection and withdrawal of H 2 storage. For oil reservoir potential, a multiple-well model was used to simulate injection of approximately 32,000 tonnes of H 2 into a single wellbore while simultaneously producing in place reservoir fluids from four offset wells to maintain reservoir pressure. The simulation results suggested a high recovery (~98%); in addition, cost advantages through existing infrastructure could be realized. Challenges in this reservoir include vi managing gas purity and leakage risks. In both scenarios, production of H 2 takes place in a single-well scenario with 10 cycles (7 months of injection and 5 months of production) over 10 years. Finally, the use of engineered caverns in the Dunhan Salt was evaluated, and the results suggest that while they have a smaller capacity (<1000 tonnes per cavern), they exhibit nearly complete gas recovery (>99%), fast response times, and low purity risk. While caverns in North Dakota may be smaller in capacity, fields can be developed in galleries to accommodate the volumetric needs and rapid turnaround times necessary to meet market demands. Geographic limitations and thin salt intervals in North Dakota may represent less total storage potential than salt domes elsewhere, but significant opportunities exist to expand this market for gas storage in North Dakota. A basinwide assessment was performed to estimate a first-of-its-kind value for H 2 storage on a large scale. DOE’s SHASTA-HELP, combined with EERC simulation work, was used to perform the assessment. Estimated H 2 storage potential varied widely for each formation type. The Broom Creek saline formation was estimated to have a storage potential of approximately 1.7–90.5 million tonnes (MMt). The DLM oil reservoirs were estimated to have 0.07–0.19 MMt of capacity. Notably, each of these estimates relies on significant assumptions regarding reservoir thickness, porosity, permeability, and CG needed for operation. Much research is needed to understand the true site-specific storage resource potential of each formation. Using the Dunham Salt Interval for cavern development may result in as much as 4.79 MMt (up to 2.87 MMt working gas) of H 2 storage potential. An important note for consideration is that the values presented here need significantly more geological characterization and engineering assessments prior to gaining confidence in performance. This will be a focal point for future research and development needs. The basinwide evaluation also indicated that North Dakota has significant H 2 generation potential, with estimates up to a possible 13 MMt annually, suggesting a substantial opportunity for H 2 market development and thus the need for commercial-scale H 2 storage to facilitate growth and resilience. Key Recommendations 1. Conduct detailed site characterization (3D seismic, well logs, core sampling) to reduce geologic uncertainty. 2. Perform techno-economic analyses incorporating market, regulatory, and incentive frameworks. 3. Investigate long-term interactions among H 2 , CGs, well materials, and formations to assess risks. 4. Develop pilot- and field-scale demonstrations to validate models and establish best practices.
Total in-place oil for the Bakken petroleum system (BPS) (which includes the Bakken and Three Forks Formations) has been estimated to be 600 billion barrels (bbl). However, BPS wells have decline rates as high as 85% over the first 3 years of their lives, and primary recovery factors typically range from 3% to 10% of original oil in place. Given the low initial recovery rates, even small incremental productivity improvements could dramatically increase technically recoverable oil in the BPS. One potential solution is enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using gas injection, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or hydrocarbon (HC) gases. While commonly used in conventional reservoirs, CO2 EOR in unconventional tight oil reservoirs has been limited to pilot tests. EOR using rich gas (mixture of methane, ethane, and propane) has also been employed in numerous pilots in several unconventional plays and has recently been successfully applied in the Eagle Ford play. If successful, large-scale gas-based EOR in the BPS could dramatically increase oil productivity and recovery factors and extend the life of the play for decades. While CO2 may be a technically suitable working fluid for EOR in the BPS, supplies are limited and costs for using CO2 in EOR pilots are prohibitively high. Meanwhile, produced gas flaring has presented challenges for BPS operators in North Dakota. Analysis conducted by the North Dakota Pipeline Authority indicates that the current gas-gathering infrastructure in North Dakota is insufficient to accommodate all of the associated gas that is produced from the BPS. The geographically isolated location of North Dakota relative to large natural gas markets, combined with suppressed natural gas prices, has made it economically challenging for industry to invest capital in expanding gas-gathering infrastructure in the state. These circumstances led to a research program conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Liberty Resources Management Company LLC (LR) to examine the potential to use rich gas injection for EOR and mitigate flaring. A rich gas EOR pilot test was designed and executed by LR at its Stomping Horse development area in Williams County, North Dakota. From July 2018 through May 2019, a total of 160 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of rich produced gas was injected into the BPS using five different wells in a sequential injection strategy. LR’s Leon–Gohrick drill spacing unit (DSU) was used as the test site. Regulatory oversight was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). Technical support was provided by the EERC through a series of laboratory, modeling, and field-based activities, and additional post-pilot research activities incorporated learnings from the test, developed new laboratory data, improved fracture modeling methods, and developed machine learning and big data analytics. The results from the Stomping Horse rich gas EOR pilot activities indicate that developing an effective, economical EOR approach for the BPS will require more field tests. Another key lesson learned from the Stomping Horse tests is that detailed pre- and posttest data on reservoir conditions and fluids production are essential. Robust reservoir characterization provides information that is crucial to creating realistic geomodels and conducting valid dynamic simulations of potential EOR scenarios. A detailed understanding of the completions and production history of offset wells is also necessary for valid test result interpretations. This knowledge is essential to designing the operational parameters of injectivity tests and interpreting the results. A conformance control strategy is also essential to success. Laboratory-based examinations of rich gas interactions with reservoir fluids and rocks were conducted, with an emphasis on determining the ability to mobilize oil in the tight reservoir rocks and shales of the BPS. Injection fluid composition was shown to have a positive impact on reducing reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), reducing interfacial tension (IFT), and altering wettability. IFT and contact angle measurements demonstrated that wettability can be altered in the presence of rich gas, suggesting the potential to improve oil recovery. Iterative modeling of surface infrastructure and reservoir performance using data generated by the various project activities was conducted. A geologic model of the Stomping Horse area was built; history-matched oil, gas, and water production was used in simulations of various EOR scenarios. Early programmatic modeling results were used to support LR’s design and operation of the EOR pilot and to provide insight regarding optimization of future commercial-scale BPS EOR design and operations. Post-pilot modeling focused on alternative methods of understanding complex fracture networks and accelerating simulation time. These led to improved simulation run times and provide excellent history-matching results. Several of these iterative models were used as the bases for developing algorithms into machine learning and big data analytics. History matching in reservoir simulation is time-consuming and computer processing-intensive. Machine learning algorithms were created, and an automated history-matching tool was developed. A large set of synthetic reservoir simulations were created to generate well responses (oil, gas, and water production, well bottomhole pressure [BHP], and tracer or propane breakthrough) for a set of EOR operating parameters that included offset well status (open or closed), injectate (rich gas or propane), injection rate, and injection well BHP. A user interface was developed to provide real-time visualization. Machine learning-based models were developed to provide rapid forecasting of well performance given a set of user-defined EOR operating parameters. These predictive models allow the user to modify the offset well status, injection rate, and injection well BHP and rapidly forecast future production performance. The combination of real-time visualization tools with real-time forecasting tools provides a framework for real-time control—operational changes that the EOR site operator can enact (e.g., changing gas injection rates) to affect the observed performance and potentially improve the EOR outcome. There is great reason to be optimistic about the future of EOR in the Bakken. The results of the laboratory studies suggest significant potential for high rates of oil mobilization using produced field gas injection under the right conditions. The results of the lab studies, combined with rigorous statistical analysis of well production data and associated modeling efforts, confirm the notion that fluid mobility within the reservoir is controlled by fractures. As more knowledge is gained about the nature and distribution of fracture networks in the Bakken, the industry will be in a better position to predict and, ultimately, influence fluid mobility. New field tests are necessary to develop a more complete understanding of those conditions. Thoughtful and creatively engineered field tests within a well-characterized geologic setting will yield the fundamental knowledge needed to take Bakken oil production to the next level. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s Oil and Gas Research Program and Computer Modelling Group.
The University of North Dakota (UND) Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in collaboration with the UND Center for Process Engineering Research (CPER), conducted a project to validate two technologies capable of converting North Dakota lignite and lignite coal waste to high-quality graphite for fast-charging lithium-ion battery (LIB) anode. The project was conducted over about 3 years from April 7, 2022, to July 6, 2025. The two technological paths pursued in this project include path A – direct conversion of coal or coal waste to graphite by the upgraded carbon ores to products (UCOP) process being developed at the EERC and path B – lignite-derived coal tar pitch (CTP) conversion to graphite (CTP2G) process being developed at CPER. The results from this project validate the two technological approaches and are expected to be an integral part of a portfolio of emerging technologies for making high-quality graphite not only from North Dakota lignite, but from all ranks of U.S. domestic coal and coal waste resources. The quality of the graphite produced by these technologies is high enough for various applications, including batteries for the fast-growing electric vehicle industry, energy storage applications, electric arc furnace electrodes for steel production, and graphene production, among others. Although the two technologies can produce high-quality graphite, they are fundamentally different in that the UCOP technology provides a direct path to transform coal to graphite, while the CTP2G technology needs to go through a CTP intermediate and a coking process for the intermediate, which requires a special facility to accomplish. For application in the industry, the UCOP process is designed to be more flexible, with feedstock to include potentially any carbonaceous material such as all coal ranks and biochar, while the CTP2G process is designed to utilize CTP as the starting precursor. The key project accomplishments include the following: • Successful preparation of high-quality synthetic graphite from North Dakota lignite coal/coal wastes and lignite-derived CTP. • Patent application has been filed for the UCOP process and an internal invention disclosure has been filed for the CTP2G process. • The produced graphite performs better than a commercial battery-grade sample in LIB coin cells, especially fast-charging capability, stability, and long-duration cycling. • Coin-type Li-ion half-cells with CTP2G graphite showed excellent performance, with >370 mAh/g capacity, >90% initial coulombic efficiency, and 93%/67% retention at 1C/2C rate, which outperforms commercial graphite in charging speed, stability, and cycling. • Results of fabricated 18650 cells were consistent with the observations in coin cells. • Preliminary techno-economic analysis (TEA) estimates for the UCOP technology indicate a manufacturing cost of about $\$$39/kg based on 50-metric ton/year capacity. • Preliminary TEA estimates for the CTP2G technology indicate a market price of about $\$$7107/ton ($\$$7/kg) based on 22,000-ton/year production capacity.
This report details the results for an optimization of the dimensions of the moderators in the preliminary design of the Spallation Neutron Source Second Target Station (STS). This study uses the optimization algorithms of Dakota and an unstructured mesh model for the moderators in MCNP. More details on the unstructured mesh model and the automated mesh generation can be found in [3]. Parallel to this effort, the same moderator geometries have been optimized using a constructive solid geometry (CSG) MCNP model. More details on this model and its results can be found in [4]. Three optimal designs are selected for each moderator: one that is optimized for maximum peak brightness, one for maximum time-integrated brightness, and one for a combination of peak and time-integrated brightness. The backbone of the optimization work flow is provided by Dakota. For each set of design parameters requested by Dakota, a new solid geometry is automatically built in Creo and SpaceClaim, and subsequently exported to Attila4MC to generate an unstructured mesh geometry for MCNP. After the MCNP calculation is finished, the objective function (e.g., brightness metric) is returned to Dakota. After the new design has been evaluated, a result-file is written, and Dakota proposes the next set of design parameters to be evaluated. The loop continues until a specified convergence criterion has been met. The design parameters of the cylindrical (upper) moderator include the hydrogen radius, the premoderator thickness (top, bottom, radial), the beryllium radius and the horizontal position of the moderator. The crucial design choice is the hydrogen radius. A radius of 62 mm is shown to provide the maximum time-integrated brightness. The maximum peak brightness occurs with a radius of 40 mm. A combined (middle) design, which balances peak and time-integrated brightnesses, is obtained with a hydrogen radius of 50 mm. The premoderator thicknesses and the beryllium radius are slightly larger in the design optimized for time-integrated brightness than in the design optimized for peak brightness. The sensitivity to these two parameters is relatively small close to the optimal configurations. The hydrogen vessel and vacuum vessel wall thicknesses are dependent on the radius of the liquid hydrogen due to structural integrity requirements. The increased wall thicknesses for larger vessels significantly penalize the time-integrated brightness, with the maximum obtainable value reduced by more than 10% relative to earlier studies which used fixed vessel wall thicknesses. The impact of the variable wall thicknesses is much less for the peak brightness and combined brightness designs. The design parameters of the tube (lower) moderator selected for the optimization are the tube length, the annular premoderator thickness, the beryllium radius and the horizontal position of the moderator. The tube length is the crucial parameter and is chosen large (210 mm) and small (125 mm) in the designs optimized for time-integrated and peak brightness respectively. A combined optimal design has a tube length of 170 mm. The premoderator thickness and the beryllium radius are chosen larger in the design optimized for time-integrated brightness.
Commonly produced as a byproduct of uranium fission, 99 Mo is a key medical isotope that is in high demand in the United States. An international goal is to switch from medical isotope production technologies that require highly enriched uranium to medical isotope production technologies that require only low-enriched uranium. Niowave Inc. is contributing to this goal by developing an accelerator-driven subcritical assembly called the Uranium Target Assembly (UTA). This work compares the performance of Dakota’s Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA) against traditional sensitivity analysis in the neutronic optimization of the UTA-3 system. The design objectives are k-eigenvalue (k eff ) and natural uranium fission power, which are directly correlated with the amount of 99 Mo produced. Dakota:MOGA did not perform as well as human engineering ingenuity in optimization studies with high numbers of input parameters, such as fuel rod type selection and fuel rod placement. However, Dakota:MOGA did outperform traditional sensitivity analysis in optimization studies with fewer than 20 parameters and revealed the degree to which each parameter influences the optimal design space for k eff and natural uranium fission power (to a lesser extent). As the design model became more complex in the final stage of design, the computational resources required to calculate the design objective values in the Monte Carlo N-Particle transport code from selected input parameter combinations limited Dakota:MOGA’s performance, and, unfortunately, human intervention was required to discern the optimal design space. In conclusion, future work will attempt to reduce computational resource constraints by incorporating areduced-order neutronics model into the optimization cycle.