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Strong Kitaev Interaction in BaCo 2⁢ (AsO 4 ) 2

The inelastic neutron scattering results and their analysis unequivocally point to a dominant Kitaev interaction in the honeycomb-lattice cobaltate BaCo 2 ⁢(AsO 4 ) 2 . Our anisotropic-exchange model closely describes all available neutron scattering data in the material’s field-polarized phase. Furthermore, the density-matrix renormalization group results for our model are in close accord with the unusual double-zigzag magnetic order and the low in-plane saturation field of BaCo 2 ⁢(AsO 4 ) 2 .

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 37, No. 2, April-June 1996]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 97 The Nuclear Community and the Public: Cognitive and Cultural Influences on Thinking About Nuclear Risk, M. A. Meyer; 109 Twenty-Third Water Reactor Safety Information Meeting, D. A. Copinger; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 126 Analysis of a PWR LBLOCA Without SCRAM, Trevor N. Tyler, Rafael Macian-Juan and John H. Mahaffy; DESIGN FEATURES: 139 Vulnerability of Multiple-Barrier Systems, N. C. Lind; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 149 A Study of Wet Catalytic Oxidation of Radioactive Spent Ion Exchange Resin by Hydrogen Peroxide, Xingchao Jian, Tianbao Wu, and Guichun Yun; 157 A Comparison Study and Resolution of Differences Between Emergency Response and Safety Analysis Codes Used at the Savannah River Site, A. A. Simpkins; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 164 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 167 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 172 Proposed Rule Changes as of Dec. 31,1995; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 178 American Nuclear Society 1997 Annual Meeting; 178 American Nuclear Society Nuclear Criticality and Safety Division Topical Meeting; 176 The Authors.

05 NUCLEAR FUELS

Accessing bands with extended quantum metric in kagome Cs 2 Ni 3 S 4 through soft chemical processing

Flat bands that do not merely arise from weak interactions can produce exotic physical properties, such as superconductivity or correlated many-body effects. The quantum metric can differentiate whether flat bands will result in correlated physics or are merely dangling bonds. A potential avenue for achieving correlated flat bands involves leveraging geometrical constraints within specific lattice structures, such as the kagome lattice; however, materials are often more complex. In these cases, quantum geometry becomes a powerful indicator of the nature of bands with small dispersions. We present a simple, soft-chemical processing route to access a flat band with an extended quantum metric below the Fermi level. By oxidizing Ni-kagome material Cs 2 Ni 3 S 4 to CsNi 3 S 4 , we see a two orders of magnitude drop in the room temperature resistance. However, CsNi 3 S 4 is still insulating, with no evidence of a phase transition. Using experimental data, density functional theory calculations, and symmetry analysis, our results suggest the emergence of a correlated insulating state of unknown origin.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Toward an AI-Powered Software Pipeline for Real-Time Tracking and Analysis of Wildfire and Smoke

Real-time tracking of wildfires and smoke is crucial for effective response, minimizing damage, protecting lives, and efficiently managing resources during fire emergencies. We develop a web-based AI-powered pipeline that detects wildfires in aerial video and estimates deployment-relevant behavior metrics, including cumulative burned area, burned-area growth rate, fire spread direction, and smoke dispersion. The system combines a YOLO-based detector with YCbCr-based fire segmentation, HSV-based smoke segmentation, Farneback optical flow, and centroid-based spatiotemporal tracking. Using ground sampling distance (GSD), pixel-level fire masks are converted to physical burned-area measurements by correlating fire pixel counts with camera altitude and tilt angle. We benchmark YOLO variants and non-YOLO baselines (GoogLeNet, CNN, DBN, Autoencoder, U-Net, and AlexNet) on the IEEE FLAME dataset and a newly created aerial frame dataset, Wildfire-DB. Cross-dataset evaluation uses a strict threshold-transfer protocol: decision thresholds are selected on FLAME validation and transferred unchanged to Wildfire-DB to quantify generalization under domain shift. YOLOv6 achieves the strongest cross-dataset frame-level fire detection on Wildfire-DB (ROC-AUC 0.8200, PR-AUC 0.8044, and transferred-threshold F1 0.7596). For tracking-oriented deployment requiring oriented localization, YOLO11-OBB provides the most reliable cross-dataset behavior among OBB-capable models while remaining computationally feasible. To analyze the feasibility of UAV deployment, we further measure inference efficiency using synchronized GPU and CPU power logs on a fixed workload of 1569 frames. YOLO-family models process the video in 5.73–12.47 seconds with net energy of 1247.28–1775.39 J, substantially lower latency and energy than heavier classification and reconstruction baselines. Overall, model optimality depends on operational objectives: YOLOv6 is best for cross-dataset detection robustness, whereas YOL...

Color segmentation

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Demonstration of gold nanorod systems for enhanced total efficiency: Experimental and numerical analysis

This study investigates the photothermal performance of gold nanorods engineered to exhibit longitudinal plasmon resonances at 695 nm, 780 nm, and 970 nm. The work combines synthesis, structural characterization, extinction measurements, numerical modeling, and controlled temperature experiments to quantify how nanorod geometry, resonance tuning, concentration, and chamber shape jointly influence heat generation. Transmission electron microscopy confirms that increasing nanorod aspect ratio systematically shifts the longitudinal plasmon peak toward the near-infrared region. Extinction measurements show strong agreement with theoretical predictions, validating the numerical model across two independent datasets. Three chamber geometries were tested under laser excitation at 640 nm, 808 nm, and 980 nm: an ascending stepped base, a flat base, and a descending stepped base. Without nanorods, the ascending geometry produced the highest efficiency due to enhanced natural convection. After introducing gold nanorods, all geometries exhibited substantial thermal enhancement, with total efficiencies exceeding 20%. The strongest improvement was obtained for nanorods resonant at 780 nm with a mass concentration of 4.6 mg/mL implemented on the descending stepped-base geometry. This performance resulted from the combined effect of spectral overlapping with the 808 nm laser, the highest nanorod concentration, and localized heat accumulation that intensified buoyancy-driven flow. The findings demonstrate that total efficiency is governed by a synergistic interplay between optical resonance, nanoparticle concentration, and macroscopic chamber design, revealing the system-level coupling between nanoscale plasmonic absorption and macroscale heat-transfer phenomena. The results provide a validated framework for tuning nanoscale plasmonic absorbers and optimizing thermal systems for applications requiring efficient light-to-heat conversion.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY

Modeling Flow in a Microreactor Core: From High-Fidelity CFD to Subchannel Analysis

The accurate prediction of pressure drop in tightly packed, low–Reynolds number (Re) bare rod bundles is essential for the thermal-hydraulic design of the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation (MARVEL) reactor and other microreactor concepts. However, existing friction factor correlations, particularly the upgraded Cheng-Todreas (UCTD) correlation, have limited validation for the small pitch-to-diameter ratios (P/Ds) and transitional flow conditions characteristic of these systems. In this work, we perform high-fidelity large-eddy simulations (LESs) of both an infinite bare rod bundle and a finite bare 37-pin scalloped rod bundle across the range 1000≤ 𝑅𝑒 ≤5500. The simulations reveal strong gap vortex–driven transitional behavior and indicate that the UCTD may underpredict the friction factor by up to 28% at 𝑃/𝐷 = 1.05. Using the LES-calculated pressure drops, we formulate a new friction factor correlation that follows the Cheng-Todreas functional form but is calibrated for low-Re and tightly packed geometries representative of a MARVEL-like reactor. The correlation is implemented in the MOOSE (Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment) subchannel module and compared against both the LES and UCTD predictions. Across all subchannel types, the proposed model reduces the streamwise velocity differences from as high as 44% (UCTD) to below 9%, and decreases the pressure gradient differences from 13% to 25% (UCTD) to 0.7% to 7% relative to the LES results. These results suggest that the new correlation has the potential to improve the pressure drop and flow field predictions for such geometries, highlighting the importance of high-fidelity simulations in supporting microreactor thermal-hydraulic model development and motivating future pressure drop experiments for compact rod bundles to further validate these findings.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN

CatTestHub: A benchmarking database of experimental heterogeneous catalysis for evaluating advanced materials

The ability to quantitatively compare newly evolving catalytic materials and technologies is hindered by the widespread availability of catalytic data collected in a consistent manner. While certain catalytic chemistries have been widely studied across decades of scientific research, quantitative comparisons based on literature information is hindered by variability in reaction conditions, types of reported data, and reporting procedures. Here, we present CatTestHub, an open-access database dedicated to benchmarking experimental heterogeneous catalysis data. Combining systematically reported catalytic activity data for selected probe chemistries, with relevant material characterization and reactor configuration information, the database provides a collection of catalytic benchmarks for distinct classes of active site functionality. Through key choices in data access, availability, and traceability, CatTestHub seeks to balance the fundamental information needs of chemical catalysis and the FAIR data design principles. Details of the database architecture and the means through which to navigate it are presented, highlighting examples of catalytic insights readily drawn from the available benchmarking data. In its current iteration, CatTestHub spans over 250 unique experimental data points, collected over 24 solid catalysts, that facilitated the turnover of 3 distinct catalytic chemistries. Here, a roadmap is presented through which to expand the open-access platform that serves as a community wide benchmark, primarily through continuous addition of kinetic information on select catalytic systems by members of the heterogeneous catalysis community at large.

Benchmark

Fast, Nondestructive and Precise Biomass Measurements Are Possible Using Lidar-Based Convex Hull and Voxelization Algorithms

Light detection and ranging (lidar) scanning tools are available that can make rapid digital estimations of biomass. Voxelization and convex hull are two algorithms used to calculate the volume of the scanned plant canopy, which is correlated with biomass, often the primary trait of interest. Voxelization splits the scans into regular-sized cubes, or voxels, whereas the convex hull algorithm creates a polygon mesh around the outermost points of the point cloud and calculates the volume within that mesh. In this study, digital estimates of biomass were correlated against hand-harvested biomass for field-grown corn, broom corn, and energy sorghum. Voxelization (r = 0.92) and convex hull (r = 0.95) both correlated well with plant dry biomass. Lidar data were also collected in a large breeding trial with nearly 900 genotypes of energy sorghum. In contrast to the manual harvest studies, digital biomass estimations correlated poorly with yield collected from a forage harvester for both voxel count (r = 0.32) and convex hull volume (r = 0.39). However, further analysis showed that the coefficient of variation (CV, a measure of variability) for harvester-based estimates of biomass was greater than the CV of the voxel and convex-hull-based biomass estimates, indicating that poor correlation was due to harvester imprecision, not digital estimations. Overall, results indicate that the lidar-based digital biomass estimates presented here are comparable or more precise than current approaches.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology

SODAs: sparse optimization for the discovery of differential and algebraic equations

Differential-algebraic equations (DAEs) integrate ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with algebraic constraints, providing a fundamental framework for developing models of dynamical systems characterized by time-scale separation, conservation laws and physical constraints. While sparse optimization has revolutionized model development by allowing data-driven discovery of parsimonious models from a library of possible equations, existing approaches for dynamical systems assume DAEs can be reduced to ODEs by eliminating variables before model discovery. This assumption limits the applicability of such methods for DAE systems with unknown constraints and time scales. We introduce sparse optimization for differential-algebraic systems (SODAs), a data-driven method for the identification of DAEs in their explicit form. By discovering the algebraic and dynamic components sequentially without prior identification of the algebraic variables, this approach leads to a sequence of convex optimization problems. It has the advantage of discovering interpretable models that preserve the structure of the underlying physical system. To this end, SODAs improves since SODAs is singular numerical stability when handling high correlations between library terms, caused by near-perfect algebraic relationships, by iteratively refining the conditioning of the candidate library. We demonstrate the performance of our method on biological, mechanical and electrical systems, showcasing its robustness to noise in both simulated time series and real-time experimental data.

DAE

Generative learning of densities on manifolds

A generative modeling framework is proposed that combines diffusion models and manifold learning to efficiently sample data densities on manifolds. The approach utilizes Diffusion Maps to uncover possible low-dimensional underlying (latent) spaces in the high-dimensional data (ambient) space. Two approaches for sampling from the latent data density are described. The first is a score-based diffusion model, which is trained to map a standard normal distribution to the latent data distribution using a neural network. The second one involves solving an Itô stochastic differential equation in the latent space. Additional realizations of the data are generated by lifting the samples back to the ambient space using Double Diffusion Maps , a recently introduced technique typically employed in studying dynamical system reduction; here the focus lies in sampling densities rather than system dynamics. The proposed approaches enable sampling high dimensional data densities restricted to low-dimensional, a priori unknown manifolds. The efficacy of the proposed framework is demonstrated through a benchmark problem and a material with multiscale structure.

Double diffusion maps

Dimensional Reduction for Sampled Priors and Application to Photometric Redshift Distributions

A typical Bayesian inference on the values of some parameters of interest q from some data D involves running a Markov Chain (MC) to sample from the posterior $p$($q$,$n$|$D$) $\propto$ $\mathcal{L}$($D$|$q$,$n$)$p$(q)$p$($n$), where n are some nuisance parameters with a separable prior. In some cases, the nuisance parameters are high-dimensional, and their prior p(n) is itself defined only by a set of samples that have been drawn from some other MC. The MC for the posterior will typically require evaluation of p(n) at arbitrary values of n, i.e., one needs to provide a density estimator over the full n space from the provided samples. But the high dimensionality of n hinders both the density estimation and the efficiency of the MC for the posterior. We describe a solution to this problem: a linear compression of the n space into a much lower-dimensional space u, which projects away directions in n space that cannot appreciably alter $\mathcal{L}$. The algorithm for doing so is a slight modification to principal components analysis, and is less restrictive on p(n) than other proposed solutions to this issue. We demonstrate this “mode projection” technique using the analysis of 2-point correlation functions of weak lensing fields and galaxy density in the Dark Energy Survey, where n is a binned representation of the redshift distribution n(z) of the galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Data-Driven Discovery and Experimental Validation of Solvent Polarity Effects on Conjugated Polymer Solution-to-Film Assembly Pathways

Understanding how solvent properties influence the solution-to-film assembly of conjugated polymers remains a critical challenge due to the complex and intertwined nature of polymer–solvent interactions. In this study, we integrate a data-driven framework with experimental validation to identify key parameters influencing the assembly and performance of poly[2,5-(2-octyldodecyl)-3,6-diketopyrrolopyrrole-alt-5,5-(2,5-di(thien-2-yl)thieno[3,2-b]thiophene)] (DPP-DTT) in organic field-effect transistors (OFETs). A machine learning (ML) approach identified the normalized Reichardt polarity parameter (E T N ) as a significant descriptor correlated with DPP-DTT hole mobility (μ). Systematic DPP-DTT devices fabricated using solvents across a wide E T N range revealed that higher E T N solvents yield enhanced μ. To elucidate the structural origins of high μ, we conducted comprehensive analyses using UV–vis–NIR spectroscopy and grazing incidence wide angle X-ray scattering (GIWAXS) measurements. The results revealed that films processed from high E T N solvents exhibit reduced paracrystallinity. By analyzing the solution-state behavior using optical microscopy and solution WAXS, we revealed polymer solubility differences in the various solvents and associated distinct polymer assembly pathways, elucidating why the high E T N solvent produces long-range ordered films. Notably, the high E T N solvent shows a pronounced preference for liquid-crystal (LC)-mediated assembly, providing a mechanistic explanation for the enhanced structural order. Therefore, these results demonstrate that solvent polarity, as evaluated by E T N , serves as an important parameter that plays a significant role in the DPP-DTT assembly pathway and resultant solid-state morphology. This work provides a strategy for integrating data science with experiments to identify critical parameters associated with complex polymer systems and helps guide rational process design for high-performance organic electronics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Case Study of Integrating High-Temperature Heat Pump with LiBr-H2O Absorption Chiller for Data Center Liquid Cooling

Data centers (DCs) are physical infrastructures that support artificial intelligence workloads. The rapid growth of artificial intelligence is putting substantial pressure on the US power grid. Most of electricity consumed by IT equipment, accounting for 50%-60% of total DC power, ultimately becomes waste heat. This heat is dissipated by DC’s cooling facilities, accounting for an additional 30%-40% of total DC power. Recovering and repurposing this waste heat offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency and reduce operating costs of DCs. One potential pathway is converting heat to cold using thermal-driven absorption chillers, therefore, reducing the power consumption in DC cooling facilities. Existing studies mainly demonstrate the technical and economic feasibility of repurposing DC’s waste heat for cooling applications but provide limited technical details on how to integrate the thermal-driven absorption chillers with DC cooling systems. In addition, the low-grade waste heat available from DCs must be upgraded to higher temperatures suitable for absorption chillers. This paper presents a case study on integrating high-temperature heat pumps with a LiBr-H2O absorption chiller to use DC waste heat for cooling. A thermodynamic model of single-effect, LiBr-H2O absorption chiller and an empirical model of high-temperature heat pumps were built. The case study considers ASHRAE W17 liquid-cooled DC, with facility service water supplied at 17.0℃ and returned at 25.3℃. The thermal behaviors of absorption chiller components were predicted for the generation temperature ranging from 75.0℃ to 115.0℃. Based on the available waste heat in the integrated system, two waste heat recovery strategies were evaluated: a facility service water-based strategy and cooling water-based strategy. Results indicated that the cooling water-based strategy achieves higher Coefficient of Performance (COPs) than the facility service water-based strategy. The relatively low cooling COPs of single-effect LiBr-H2O absorption chillers could be offset by high heating COP of high temperature heat pumps. The maximum cooling COP of absorption chiller and the overall COP of integrated systems occur at lower generation temperatures, but these conditions also yield lower cooling capacities. In practice, system operation should balance the trade-off between the COP and cooling capacity

Wang, Pengtao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000214713429)

Radiation-induced alteration of apatite on the surface of Mars: first in situ observations with SuperCam Raman onboard Perseverance

Abstract Planetary exploration relies considerably on mineral characterization to advance our understanding of the solar system, the planets and their evolution. Thus, we must understand past and present processes that can alter materials exposed on the surface, affecting space mission data. Here, we analyze the first dataset monitoring the evolution of a known mineral target in situ on the Martian surface, brought there as a SuperCam calibration target onboard the Perseverance rover. We used Raman spectroscopy to monitor the crystalline state of a synthetic apatite sample over the first 950 Martian days (sols) of the Mars2020 mission. We note significant variations in the Raman spectra acquired on this target, specifically a decrease in the relative contribution of the Raman signal to the total signal. These observations are consistent with the results of a UV-irradiation test performed in the laboratory under conditions mimicking ambient Martian conditions. We conclude that the observed evolution reflects an alteration of the material, specifically the creation of electronic defects, due to its exposure to the Martian environment and, in particular, UV irradiation. This ongoing process of alteration of the Martian surface needs to be taken into account for mineralogical space mission data analysis.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Establishing model credibility for process-microstructure-property relationships in additive manufacturing using exascale computing

Additive Manufacturing (AM) of alloys holds significant promise as a disruptive technology in various industries, yet its adoption is often hindered by challenges in achieving consistent part quality. These issues are primarily due to the complex process-microstructure-property (PSP) relationships inherent to AM. Computational models can greatly aid in understanding these relationships, but their widespread impact and adoption has been limited by a lack of validated, open-source, and computationally efficient PSP modeling frameworks and hardware limitations. Here, this study leverages the ExaAM software suite and data from the AMBench-2018 series of laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) benchmark experiments to perform a comprehensive model assessment, including verification, validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification. The RADICAL-EnTK workflow manager was used to perform an ensemble of heat transport, solidification, and mechanical response simulations on the exascale computer Frontier, considering uncertainties in critical model inputs such as laser spot size and nucleation parameters, and consisting of 125 explicit grain structure simulations and 7875 crystal plasticity simulations. For a selected location within the Inconel 625 AMBench-2018 test artifact, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification were performed using the predicted distributions of grain structure and mechanical properties. Qualitative agreement was found between the predicted grain size and texture and the observed AMBench-2018 microstructure, the mean predicted yield stress was within 5% of the experimental measurement mean, and the mean predicted engineering stress at 5% strain was within 10% of the experimental measurement mean. The insights gained from development and validation of the ExaAM PSP modeling framework will help guide future directions for enhancing the credibility and reliability of PSP models in AM, thereby accelerating the adoption of AM technologies in various industries.

Additive manufacturing

System for controller area network payload decoding

A system for decoding an unknown automotive controller area network (“CAN”) message definitions. CAN data vehicle signal mappings are typically held in secret and varied by automotive model and year. Without knowledge of the mappings, the wealth of real-time vehicle data hidden in the automotive CAN packets is uninterpretable—impeding research, after-market tuning, efficiency and performance monitoring, fault diagnosis, and privacy-related technologies. This system can ascertain the CAN signals' boundaries (start bit and length), endianness (byte ordering), signedness (binary-to-integer encoding) from raw CAN data. This allows conversion of CAN data to time series. Interpreting the translated CAN data's physical meaning and finding a linear mapping to standard units (e.g., knowing the signal is speed and scaling values to represent units of miles per hour) can be achieved for many signals by leveraging diagnostic standards to obtain real-time measurements of in-vehicle systems. The system can be integrated into lightweight hardware enabling an OBD-II plugin for real-time in-vehicle CAN decoding or run on standard computers. The system can output a standard DBC file with the signal definition information.

Verma, Kiren E.

Uncertainty quantification for competing failure mechanisms in unidirectionally reinforced carbon–carbon composites

Microstructure-informed finite element models play a key role in the carbon–carbon composite design process. Variability in manufacturing process parameters and experimental limitations introduce model parameter uncertainty. This study quantifies the effect of model parameter uncertainty on transverse tensile fracture behavior and proposes a methodology to predict the failure mode based on competing microscale damage mechanisms. Finite element simulations incorporate fiber–matrix interface debonding with cohesive zones and matrix damage with a smeared crack band approach in a unidirectional carbon–carbon composite. Results from a variance-based global sensitivity analysis identifies interfacial and matrix damage parameters as the primary source of variability in fracture behavior. Sobol’ indices indicate that matrix and cohesive zone strengths contribute 94% of the variance in the effective ultimate stress. A local analysis elucidates the relationship between these constituent strength parameters and failure mode by estimating the probability of cohesive, matrix, and mixed-mode dominated failure. Based on the results for 4000 simulations, 93% exhibit mixed-mode or interfacial dominated failure, which underscores the crucial role of fiber–matrix interface debonding in the transverse tensile failure of carbon–carbon composites. These uncertainty quantification results facilitate more efficient model calibration and provide a framework for microstructure-informed failure predictions in the face of manufacturing-induced uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE