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At least 163 records · Page 9

Our Next Two Steps for Fukushima Daiichi Muon Tomography

After the vast disasters caused by the great earthquake and tsunami in eastern Japan, we proposed applying our Muon Tomography (MT) technique to help and improve the emergency situation at Fukushima Daiichi using cosmic-ray muons. A reactor-tomography team was formed at LANL which was supported by the Laboratory as a response to a request by the former Japanese Prime Minister, Naoto Kan. Our goal is to help the Japanese people and support remediation of the reactors. At LANL, we have carried out a proof-of-principle technical demonstration and simulation studies that established the feasibility of MT to image a reactor core. This proposal covers the next two critical steps for Fukushima Daiichi Muon Imaging: (1) undertake case study mock-up experiments of Fukushima Daiichi, and (2) system optimization. We requested funding to the US and Japanese government to assess damage of reactors at Fukushima Daiichi. The two steps will bring our project to the 'ready-to-go' level.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Gary Laughlin IHNS Intro to 2015 HPC Annual Report

The International, Homeland, and Nuclear Security (IHNS) Program Management Unit (PMU) oversees a broad portfolio of Sandia’s programs in areas ranging from global nuclear security to critical asset protection. We use science and technology, innovative research, and global engagement to counter threats, reduce dangers, and respond to disasters. The PMU draws on the skills of scientists and engineers from across Sandia. Our programs focus on protecting US government installations, safeguarding nuclear weapons and materials, facilitating nonproliferation activities, securing infrastructures, countering chemical and biological dangers, and reducing the risk of terrorist threats. We conduct research in risk and threat analysis, monitoring and detection, decontamination and recovery, and situational awareness. We develop technologies for verifying arms control agreements, neutralizing dangerous materials, detecting intruders, and strengthening resiliency. Our programs use Sandia’s High-Performance Computing resources for predictive modeling and simulation of interdependent systems, for modeling dynamic threats and forecasting adaptive behavior, and for enabling decision support and processing large cyber data streams. In this report, we highlight four advanced computation projects that illustrate the breadth of the IHNS mission space.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Critical Load Restoration using Distributed Energy Resources for Resilient Power Distribution System

Extreme weather events have a significant impact on the aging and outdated power distribution infrastructures. These high-impact low-probability (HILP) events often result in extended outages and loss of critical services, thus, severely affecting customers' safety. This calls for the need to ensure resilience in distribution networks by quickly restoring the critical services during a disaster. This paper presents an advanced feeder restoration method to restore critical loads using distributed energy resources (DERs). A resilient restoration approach is proposed that jointly maximizes the amount of restored critical loads and optimizes the restoration times by optimally allocating grid's available DER resources. The restoration problem is modeled as a mixed-integer linear program with the objective of maximizing the resilience to post-restoration failures while simultaneously satisfying grid's critical connectivity and operational constraints and ensuring a radial operation for a given open-loop feeder configuration. Simulations are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach using IEEE 123-node feeder with 5 DERs supplying 11 critical loads and IEEE 906-bus feeder with 3 DERs supplying 17 critical loads. The impacts of DER availability and fuel reserve on restored networks are assessed and it is shown that the proposed approach is successfully able to restore a maximum number of critical loads using available DERs.

resilience, microgrids, reactive power, energy res↗

Future North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities in thermodynamically modified historical environments

Tropical cyclones (TCs) rank as the deadliest and most financially crippling natural disasters in the United States for the last half-century. It is imperative to assess potential shifts in TC intensity within the paradigm of an evolving climate. In this study, we have modeled the intensities of 620 historical TC events in the North Atlantic Basin using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT)'s deep learning intensity model. By applying a thermodynamic warming signal extrapolated from Global Climate Models, we rerun historical events under eight different future climate scenarios, providing a spectrum of potential TC intensity outcomes. One of the future simulations indicates a staggering 43% increase in the number of major hurricanes, underscoring the critical impact of climate change on TC intensity. Additionally, an interactive dashboard has been created to enable users to explore individual storm simulations and understand the influence of future climate signals on environmental conditions of TC development and resulting TC intensities. This dataset and the user-friendly tool offer invaluable resources for systematic exploration of the discrete effects that changes in the air-sea thermodynamic state have on the intensities of TCs.

Climate Change↗

A generic microgrid controller: Concept, testing, and insights

Microgrids have garnered attention in recent years as a way to increase the reliability of the grid, increase the reliability of electricity service to customers, adapt to an increasing percentage of intermittent renewable generation, and serve both customer critical loads and the needs of adjacent communities in the case of emergencies such as natural disasters. One barrier to microgrids is the historic cost and lack of standardization associated with microgrid controllers. To reduce this cost and address standardization, specifications for a Generic Microgrid Controller (GMC) were developed with the goal to facilitate the design and ease of adaptation of microgrid controllers to various microgrids of different sizes and with different resources. A GMC must address two core functions, Transition and Dispatch, as well as several optional higher level functions such as economic dispatch, and renewable and load forecasting. The GMC specifications were demonstrated and evaluated using a commercial simulation platform for two different microgrids, a 20MW-Class community microgrid and a 10MW-Class medical center microgrid. For each microgrid, the GMC was tested in hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) using an OPAL-RT real-time digital simulator, and the two core functions were assessed. The results established that (1) the GMC is successful in seamlessly transitioning the microgrids to and from an islanded mode, (2) a load/generation mismatch at the time of separation depends on the microgrid configuration and must be lower than a specific value determined by simulation testing, and (3) the GMC Dispatch Function response is acceptable in maintaining, in the islanded mode, 60Hz for a range of load changes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Robust Decentralized Secondary Control Scheme for Inverter-based Power Networks

Inverter-dominated microgrids are quickly becoming a key building block of future power systems. They rely on centralized controllers that can provide reliability and resiliency in extreme events. Nonetheless, communication failures due to cyber-physical attacks or natural disasters can make autonomous operation of islanded microgrids challenging. This paper examines a unified decentralized secondary control scheme that is robust to inverter clock synchronization errors and can be seamlessly applied to grid-following or grid-forming control architectures. The proposed scheme overcomes the well-known stability problem that arises from parallel operation of local integral controllers. Theoretical guarantees for stability are provided along with criteria to appropriately tune the secondary control gains to achieve good frequency regulation performance while ensuring fair power sharing. The efficacy of our approach is demonstrated through simulations on a 5-bus microgrid with four grid-forming inverters.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Economic Consequence Analysis of Disasters: The ECAT Software Tool

This study develops a methodology for rapidly obtaining approximate estimates of the economic consequences from numerous natural, man-made and technological threats. This software tool is intended for use by various decision makers and analysts to obtain estimates rapidly. It is programmed in Excel and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) to facilitate its use. This tool is called E-CAT (Economic Consequence Analysis Tool) and accounts for the cumulative direct and indirect impacts (including resilience and behavioral factors that significantly affect base estimates) on the U.S. economy. E-CAT is intended to be a major step toward advancing the current state of economic consequence analysis (ECA) and also contributing to and developing interest in further research into complex but rapid turnaround approaches. The essence of the methodology involves running numerous simulations in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for each threat, yielding synthetic data for the estimation of a single regression equation based on the identification of key explanatory variables (threat characteristics and background conditions). This transforms the results of a complex model, which is beyond the reach of most users, into a "reduced form" model that is readily comprehensible. Functionality has been built into E-CAT so that its users can switch various consequence categories on and off in order to create customized profiles of economic consequences of numerous risk events. E-CAT incorporates uncertainty on both the input and output side in the course of the analysis.

Environmental Economics↗

Satellite Gravimetry Improves Seasonal Streamflow Forecast Initialization in Africa

West Africa is one of the poorest regions in the world and highly vulnerable to extreme hydrological events due to the lack of reliable monitoring and forecast systems. For the first time, we demonstrate that initial hydrological conditions informed by satellite-based terrestrial water storage (TWS) estimates improve seasonal streamflow forecasts. TWS variability detected by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites is assimilated into a land surface model during 2003–2016 and used to initialize 6-month hindcasts (i.e., forecasts of past events) during West Africa's wet seasons. We find that GRACE data assimilation (DA) generally increases groundwater and soil moisture storage in the region, resulting in increased evapotranspiration and reduced total runoff. Total runoff is particularly lower at the headwaters of the Niger River, positively impacting streamflow simulations and hindcast initializations. Compared to simulations without GRACE-DA, hindcasts are notably improved at locations draining from large basin areas, in particular, over the Niger River basin, which is consistent with GRACE's coarse spatial resolution. The long memory of groundwater and deep soil moisture, two main TWS components updated by GRACE-DA, is reflected in prolonged improvements in the streamflow hindcasts. Model accuracy at Niamey, Niger, the most populated city where streamflow observations are available, improved up to 33% during the flood season. These new findings directly contribute to ongoing developments in food security, flood potential forecast, and water-related disaster warning systems for Africa.

Augusto Getirana↗

Towards Optimal and Executable Distribution Grid Restoration Planning With a Fine-Grained Power-Communication Interdependency Model

Distribution service restoration (DSR) under natural disasters is always a critical and challenging problem for utility companies. An effective solution must not ignore the power-communication interdependency as various systems are getting increasingly connected in the Smart Grid era. In this paper, we propose a two-layer distribution system model with both power and communication components. Based on this model, we formulate the restoration process as a routing problem that schedules the path and action sequence of utility crews that involves repairing damaged components, closing power switches, and enabling communication paths between the control center and remote field devices. Further, we develop a simulation-based method to quantitatively evaluate the restoration process with public reference models of large-scale power systems. The experimental results show that our method improves the total restored energy up to 57.6% and reduces the recovery time up to 63% by considering the power-communication interdependency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Climate Induced Spillover and Implications for U.S. Security.

Developing nations incur a greater risk to climate change than the developed world due to poorly managed human/natural resources, unreliable infrastructure and brittle governing/economic institutions. These vulnerabilities often give rise to a climate induced “domino effect” of reduced natural resource production-leading to economic hardship, social unrest, and humanitarian crises. Integral to this cascading set of events is increased human migration, leading to the “spillover” of impacts to adjoining areas with even broader impact on global markets and security. Given the complexity of factors influencing human migration and the resultant spill-over effect, quantitative tools are needed to aid policy analysis. Toward this need, a series of migration models were developed along with a system dynamics model of the spillover effect. The migration decision models were structured according to two interacting paths, one that captured long-term “chronic” impacts related to protracted deteriorating quality of life and a second focused on short-term “acute” impacts of disaster and/or conflict. Chronic migration dynamics were modeled for two different cases; one that looked only at emigration but at a national level for the entire world; and a second that looked at both emigration and immigration but focused on a single nation. Model parameterization for each of the migration models was accomplished through regression analysis using decadal data spanning the period 1960-2010. A similar approach was taken with acute migration dynamics except regression analysis utilized annual data sets limited to a shorter time horizon (2001-2013). The system dynamics spillover model was organized around two broad modules, one simulating the decision dynamics of migration and a second module that treats the changing environmental conditions that influence the migration decision. The environmental module informs the migration decision, endogenously simulating interactions/changes in the economy, labor, population, conflict, water, and food. A regional model focused on Mali in western Africa was used as a test case to demonstrate the efficacy of the model.

Tidwell, Vincent C.↗

Optimize Topology, Component Sizes, and Operating Strategy of Participant's Protype: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report

The purpose of the project was to complete testing of Shine Technologies LLC’s prototype power system called “Juicebox 3.0.” Testing of the prototype using NREL’s hardware-in-the-loop capabilities, including a DC power supply programmed to simulate PV module output and provide the JuiceBox 3.0 at the specified power level and with a load bank of sufficient capacity to mimic DC and AC loads connected to the outlets of the Juicebox 3.0. The unit is provided with SAE wire connectors. A photo of a JuiceBox 3.0 unit is shown in Figure 1 below.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

GPM Avionics Module Heat Pipes Design and Performance Test Results

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is an international network of satellites that provide the next-generation global observations of rain and snow. The GPM core satellite carries an advanced radar / radiometer system to measure precipitation from space and serve as a reference standard to unify precipitation measurements from a constellation of research and operational satellites. Through improved measurements of precipitation globally, the GPM mission will help to advance our understanding of Earth's water and energy cycle, improve forecasting of extreme events that cause natural hazards and disasters, and extend current capabilities in using accurate and timely information of precipitation to directly benefit society. The avionics module on the core satellite contains a number of electronics boxes which are cooled by a network of aluminum/ammonia heat pipes and a honeycomb radiator which contains thirteen embedded aluminum/ammonia heat pipes. All heat pipes were individually tested by the vendor (Advanced Cooling Technologies, Inc.) prior to delivery. Following delivery to NASA, the flight avionics radiator and the flight spare transport heat pipes were mounted to flight-like test structure and a system level thermal vacuum test was performed. This test, which used simulators in place of all electronics boxes, was done to verify the operation of the thermal control system as a whole. This presentation will discuss the design of the avionics module heat pipes, and then discuss performance tests results for the individual heat pipes prior to delivery and for the system level thermal vacuum test. All heat pipes met their performance requirements. However, it was found that the power was too low in some instances to start all of the smaller radiator spreader heat pipes when they were tested in a reflux configuration (which is the nominal test configuration). Although this lowered the efficiency of the radiator somewhat, it did not impact the operating temperatures of the electronics boxes.

Ottenstein, Laura↗

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

InVEST Urban Development: Incorporating Earth Observation Data into the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation Model Python API

Urban flooding poses as one of the biggest issues for cities today, as its impacts are amplified by both climate change and urbanization. The Natural Capital Project’s Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation (UFRM) model, which benefits from its simplicity and robustness, is commonly used in NASA DEVELOP projects for disaster mitigation, urban planning, and environmental justice issues. While InVEST UFRM model was able to produce the surface water runoff and retention map sufficient for the scopes of past projects, the model accuracy and spatial variability need improvement. Since the current InVEST UFRM model employs constant rainfall depth for all pixels in the area of interest (AOI), the model suffers from inaccurately estimating rainfall depth, runoff volume, and flood depth. Therefore, we adapted the model so that satellite-based precipitation raster datasets (i.e., Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement [GPM IMERG]) can be used instead of a single constant value. We simulated the flood events on August 21st and August 22nd, 2017 in Wyandotte County, Kansas using both our modified and the original InVEST UFRM model and then compared the results after incorporating the rainfall raster into the model. Areas with developed land on the land use map predicted moderate to high flood volume in the original volume regardless of the actual amount of precipitation. The modified model considered the rainfall depth’s spatial variation achieving less overestimation of flood runoff and volume at low-to-moderate rainfall area.

Son Do↗

InVEST Urban Development: Incorporating Earth Observation Data into the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation Model Python API

Urban flooding poses as one of the biggest issues for cities today as its impacts are amplified by both climate change and urbanization. The Natural Capital Project’s Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Flood Risk Mitigation (UFRM) model, which benefits from its simplicity and robustness, is commonly used in NASA DEVELOP projects for disaster mitigation, urban planning, and environmental justice issues. While the InVEST UFRM model was able to produce the surface water runoff and retention map sufficient for the scopes of past projects, the model’s accuracy and spatial variability need improvement. Since the current InVEST UFRM model employs constant rainfall depth for all pixels in the area of interest (AOI), the model suffers from inaccurately estimating rainfall depth, runoff volume, and flood depth. Therefore, we adapted the model so that satellite-based precipitation raster datasets (i.e., Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement [GPM IMERG]) can be used instead of a single constant value. We simulated the flood events on August 21st and August 22nd, 2017, in Wyandotte County, Kansas using both our modified and the original InVEST UFRM model and then compared the results after incorporating rainfall raster into the model. Areas with developed land on the land use map predicted moderate to high flood volume in the original volume regardless of the actual amount of precipitation. The modified model considered the rainfall depth’s spatial variation achieving less overestimation of flood runoff and volume at low-to-moderate rainfall area.

Urban flooding↗

EPA and Idaho National Laboratory create first of its scale

Advancing the science and engineering of decontaminating water distribution systems and safely disposing of high-volumes of contaminated water are high priorities for the EPA. To help address these science gaps, EPA homeland security researchers have developed the first-of-its-scale Water Security Test Bed (WSTB). Water is an important component of everyday life. We rely on safe, clean water for our health and the health of the environment. Protecting this vital resource is critical to living safely and securely. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is responsible for working with water utilities to protect water systems from contamination and to clean up systems that become contaminated. Purposeful or inadvertent distribution system contamination can result in large amounts of infrastructure and water that must be cleaned. Water distribution systems contamination can be caused by, for example, natural disasters such as Superstorm Sandy or by individuals hoping to cause harm. The WSTB, constructed at the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Idaho National Laboratory, replicates a section of a typical municipal drinking water system including a piping system with roughly 445 feet of pipe and two fire hydrants laid out in an “L” shape using 40-year-old, eight-inch cement mortar lined, ductile iron pipes, excavated after twenty years of use for water conveyance. Researchers built the WSTB above ground for easy access during experiments, and to facilitate fast leak detection. Over the next several years, EPA and partner researchers will conduct experiments using simulants of various biological, chemical, and radioactive materials that simulate high toxic versions of these agents. At this “full” sized system, researchers will demonstrate approaches to contamination detection, sensor and model testing, infrastructure decontamination, water treatment and cyber testing developed at lab and pilot scale. Researchers are also able to verify if laboratory results that were effective in controlled conditions are as effective in full-scale testing. Having the ability to conduct bench scale studies in a real world setting can help address specific research gaps, and help water researchers understand conditions in which real world drinking water systems operate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ship-to-grid integration: Environmental mitigation and critical infrastructure resilience

The United States and European Union have an increasing number of projects that are engaging end-use devices for improved grid capabilities. Areas such as building-to-grid and vehicle-to-grid are simple examples of these increasing capabilities. In this paper, we present an innovative concept study for a ship-to-grid integration. The goal of this study is to simulate a two-way power flow between ship(s) and the grid with GridLAB-D for the port of Kyllini in Greece, where a ship-to-shore interconnection was recently implemented. Extending this further, we explore: (a) the ability of ships to meet their load demand needs, while at berth, by being supplied with energy from the electric grid and thus powering off their diesel engines; and (b) the ability of ships to provide power to critical loads. As a result, the ship-to-grid integration helps (a) mitigate environmental pollutants from the ships’ diesel engines and (b) provide resilience to areas affected by natural disasters.

Vlachokostas, Efthimios Alexandros↗