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At least 163 records · Page 9

Development of a Model for the Small-Particle Orbital Debris Population Based on the STS Impact Record

In preparation for the release of the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) version 3.1, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) revisited how orbiting debris populations of characteristic sizes smaller than 1 cm were modeled. The primary contributor to the population of sub-centimeter debris particles is the surface deterioration or erosion of spacecraft materials exposed to the outer-space environment. Because small particulates are not directly trackable by remote sensing, the primary means of detection is via historical counts of small impact features on flown radiator and window surfaces of the U.S. Space Transportation System (STS, also known as the Space Shuttle) from 1995-2011. Historic NASA studies of high-velocity impact tests have related impact-feature size to particle mass and velocity for certain STS surfaces, so that a corresponding particle size may be inferred from each small-impact feature observed. Micro-debris populations are then estimated by modeling the path and orientation of an STS mission through a simulated debris environment, and the densities of this simulated environment are rescaled to approximate the number of observed STS impact features. Monte-Carlo methods are further employed to gauge the estimation uncertainty of the rescaled environment. A description of the chosen methodologies for estimating and adjusting the micro-debris population model, and the results, are presented.

Seago, J..↗

Towards Real-time Global Assessment of Post-fire Debris Flow Hazard

As the risk of wildfires increases worldwide, burned steeplands are vulnerable to the secondary hazard of widespread sediment mobilization through debris flows. Following an initial burn, sediment and soil previously restrained by vegetation are no longer consolidated, allowing for easy mobilization into channels and along steep hillslopes through runoff. Sufficiently powerful rainfall incorporates entrained material into turbulent flows and serves as the primary trigger for debris flow initiation. There is thus an ongoing need to establish the relationship between rainfall and debris flow initiation based on a variety of spatiotemporal preconditions. Previous work establishes regional and local thresholds to constrain the effect of rainfall in recently burned areas, but no empirical or numerical solution has worldwide application. Building from regionally-based efforts in the U.S., this work considers how remote sensing data can be applied to better approximate the post-fire debris flow hazards worldwide using freely available global datasets and software. Our work assesses the utility of remote sensing resources for analyzing burn characteristics, topography, rainfall intensity/duration, and, thus, debris flow initiation. Early results show that global observations are sufficient to delineate background rainfall rates from storms likely to cause debris flows across a variety of burn severity and topographic conditions. However, the dearth of publicly-available post-fire debris flow inventories globally limit the ability to test how the model framework performs within different climatologic and morphologic areas. This work will present preliminary analysis over the Western United States and demonstrate the feasibility of a global, near-real time model to provide situational awareness of potential hazards within recently burned areas worldwide. Future work will also consider how global or regional precipitation forecasts may increase the lead time for improved early warning of these hazards.

Elijah Orland↗

Using Machine Learning to Infer Material Properties of Debris Fragments from X-ray Images in the DebriSat Project

The DebriSat project is a collaboration effort with the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command Center, The Aerospace Corporation, and the University of Florida. To date, over 200,000 fragments from this ground-based, hypervelocity impact experiment have been collected, and processing is underway to determine their physical characteristics, such as material, shape, color, characteristic length, and average cross-sectional area. The x-ray process is primarily used to identify the location of the fragments and estimated size for extraction, so that these physical characteristics can be assessed. This paper proposes a machine learning-based approach to characterize materials from x-ray images of debris fragments embedded in soft-catch foam used in the DebriSat project. The novel methodology discussed in this paper will highlight the use of x-ray imagery data to characterize these fragments without extraction or a human-in-the-loop. Both supervised and unsupervised machine learning techniques are utilized with this approach to infer the physical parameters of the fragments embedded in the soft-catch foam panels used in the impact experiment based on x-ray images of the foam panels. Additionally, 3D reconstructions of the extracted fragments are created with images taken from two different angles using the structure from motion (SfM) method. The characteristic lengths and shape from the 3D reconstruction, alongside the physical characteristics of the debris, are used in the inference of the material type. To develop and test the approach, a dataset of x-ray images of debris fragments of varying sizes and materials is collected. Supervised learning methods such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), support vector machines (SVM), decision trees, and random forest classifiers are used due to the high-dimensional feature spaces of the debris and nonlinear decision boundaries for material categorization. Given the limited pre-labeled data of embedded debris materials smaller than 10 mm, unsupervised machine learning techniques such as clustering algorithms and autoencoders are used, in addition to supervised learning methods. The clustering algorithms group similar fragments together based on their physical properties, and autoencoders reduce the dimensionality of the x ray images and extract relevant features. The performance of the proposed approach's is analyzed using a range of statistical methods, including confusion matrices, receiver operating characteristic curves, and precision-recall curves. The results are compared with those obtained using a baseline approach that relies on manual identification and classification of debris fragments. To evaluate the effectiveness of different machine learning methods, statistical tests such as t-tests, ANOVA, and cross-validation are performed, comparing the performance of CNNs, SVMs, clustering algorithms, and autoencoders. Additional analysis needs to be conducted to identify any sources of bias or variability that may affect the results, such as variations in imaging conditions or fragmentation patterns. Other topics explored are limitations, refinements, and the potential use of semi-supervised learning techniques, such as self-training to label unlabeled datasets and co-training using x-ray images taken from two different angles as two different models.

Saik Anam Siam↗

Using Machine Learning to Infer Material Properties of Debris Fragments from X-ray Images in the DebriSat Project

The DebriSat project is a collaboration effort with the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command Center, The Aerospace Corporation, and the University of Florida. To date, over 200,000 fragments from this ground-based, hypervelocity impact experiment have been collected, and processing is underway to determine their physical characteristics, such as material, shape, color, characteristic length, and average cross-sectional area. The x-ray process is primarily used to identify the location of the fragments and estimated size for extraction, so that these physical characteristics can be assessed. This paper proposes a machine learning-based approach to characterize materials from x-ray images of debris fragments embedded in soft-catch foam used in the DebriSat project. The novel methodology discussed in this paper will highlight the use of x-ray imagery data to characterize these fragments without extraction or a human-in-the-loop. Both supervised and unsupervised machine learning techniques are utilized with this approach to infer the physical parameters of the fragments embedded in the soft-catch foam panels used in the impact experiment based on x-ray images of the foam panels. Additionally, 3D reconstructions of the extracted fragments are created with images taken from two different angles using the structure from motion (SfM) method. The characteristic lengths and shape from the 3D reconstruction, alongside the physical characteristics of the debris, are used in the inference of the material type. To develop and test the approach, a dataset of x-ray images of debris fragments of varying sizes and materials is collected. Supervised learning methods such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), support vector machines (SVM), decision trees, and random forest classifiers are used due to the high-dimensional feature spaces of the debris and nonlinear decision boundaries for material categorization. Given the limited pre-labeled data of embedded debris materials smaller than 10 mm, unsupervised machine learning techniques such as clustering algorithms and autoencoders are used, in addition to supervised learning methods. The clustering algorithms group similar fragments together based on their physical properties, and autoencoders reduce the dimensionality of the x ray images and extract relevant features. The performance of the proposed approach's is analyzed using a range of statistical methods, including confusion matrices, receiver operating characteristic curves, and precision-recall curves. The results are compared with those obtained using a baseline approach that relies on manual identification and classification of debris fragments. To evaluate the effectiveness of different machine learning methods, statistical tests such as t-tests, ANOVA, and cross-validation are performed, comparing the performance of CNNs, SVMs, clustering algorithms, and autoencoders. Additional analysis needs to be conducted to identify any sources of bias or variability that may affect the results, such as variations in imaging conditions or fragmentation patterns. Other topics explored are limitations, refinements, and the potential use of semi-supervised learning techniques, such as self-training to label unlabeled datasets and co-training using x-ray images taken from two different angles as two different models.

Saik Anam Siam↗

Lightforce Photon-Pressure Collision Avoidance: Efficiency Analysis in the Current Debris Environment and Long-Term Simulation Perspective

This work provides an efficiency analysis of the LightForce space debris collision avoidance scheme in the current debris environment and describes a simulation approach to assess its impact on the long-term evolution of the space debris environment. LightForce aims to provide just-in-time collision avoidance by utilizing photon pressure from ground-based industrial lasers. These ground stations impart minimal accelerations to increase the miss distance for a predicted conjunction between two objects. In the first part of this paper we will present research that investigates the short-term effect of a few systems consisting of 20-kilowatt-class lasers directed by 1.5-meter-diameter telescopes using adaptive optics. The results found such a network of ground stations to mitigate more than 85 percent of conjunctions and could lower the expected number of collisions in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) by an order of magnitude. While these are impressive numbers that indicate LightForce's utility in the short-term, the remaining 15 percent of possible collisions contain (among others) conjunctions between two massive objects that would add large amount of debris if they collide. Still, conjunctions between massive objects and smaller objects can be mitigated. Hence, we choose to expand the capabilities of the simulation software to investigate the overall effect of a network of LightForce stations on the long-term debris evolution. In the second part of this paper, we will present the planned simulation approach for that effort. For the efficiency analysis of collision avoidance in the current debris environment, we utilize a simulation approach that uses the entire Two Line Element (TLE) catalog in LEO for a given day as initial input. These objects are propagated for one year and an all-on-all conjunction analysis is performed. For conjunctions that fall below a range threshold, we calculate the probability of collision and record those values. To assess efficiency, we compare a baseline (without collision avoidance) conjunction analysis with an analysis where LightForce is active. Using that approach, we take into account that collision avoidance maneuvers could have effects on third objects. Performing all-on-all conjunction analyses for extended period of time requires significant computer resources; hence we implemented this simulation utilizing a highly parallel approach on the NASA Pleiades supercomputer.

space debris mitigation↗

The frequency of gaseous debris discs around white dwarfs

ABSTRACT A total of 1–3 per cent of white dwarfs are orbited by planetary dusty debris detectable as infrared emission in excess above the white dwarf flux. In a rare subset of these systems, a gaseous disc component is also detected via emission lines of the Ca ii 8600 Å triplet, broadened by the Keplerian velocity of the disc. We present the first statistical study of the fraction of debris discs containing detectable amounts of gas in emission at white dwarfs within a magnitude and signal-to-noise ratio limited sample. We select 7705 single white dwarfs spectroscopically observed by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and Gaia with magnitudes g ≤ 19. We identify five gaseous disc hosts, all of which have been previously discovered. We calculate the occurrence rate of a white dwarf hosting a debris disc detectable via Ca ii emission lines as $0.067\, \pm \, ^{0.042}_{0.025}$ per cent. This corresponds to an occurrence rate for a dusty debris disc to have an observable gaseous component in emission as 4 ± $_{2}^{4}$ per cent. Given that variability is a common feature of the emission profiles of gaseous debris discs, and the recent detection of a planetesimal orbiting within the disc of SDSS J122859.93+104032.9, we propose that gaseous components are tracers for the presence of planetesimals embedded in the discs and outline a qualitative model. We also present spectroscopy of the Ca ii triplet 8600 Å region for 20 white dwarfs hosting dusty debris discs in an attempt to identify gaseous emission. We do not detect any gaseous components in these 20 systems, consistent with the occurrence rate that we calculated.

Manser, Christopher J.↗

Coarse woody debris decomposition assessment tool: Model development and sensitivity analysis

Coarse woody debris (CWD) is an important component in forests, hosting a variety of organisms that have critical roles in nutrient cycling and carbon (C) storage. We developed a process-based model using literature, field observations, and expert knowledge to assess woody debris decomposition in forests and the movement of wood C into the soil and atmosphere. The sensitivity analysis was conducted against the primary ecological drivers (wood properties and ambient conditions) used as model inputs. The analysis used eighty-nine climate datasets from North America, from tropical (14.2° N) to boreal (65.0° N) zones, with large ranges in annual mean temperature (26.5°C in tropical to -11.8°C in boreal), annual precipitation (6,143 to 181 mm), annual snowfall (0 to 612 kg m -2 ), and altitude (3 to 2,824 m above mean see level). The sensitivity analysis showed that CWD decomposition was strongly affected by climate, geographical location and altitude, which together regulate the activity of both microbial and invertebrate wood-decomposers. CWD decomposition rate increased with increments in temperature and precipitation, but decreased with increases in latitude and altitude. CWD decomposition was also sensitive to wood size, density, position (standing vs downed), and tree species. The sensitivity analysis showed that fungi are the most important decomposers of woody debris, accounting for over 50% mass loss in nearly all climatic zones in North America. The model includes invertebrate decomposers, focusing mostly on termites, which can have an important role in CWD decomposition in tropical and some subtropical regions. The role of termites in woody debris decomposition varied widely, between 0 and 40%, from temperate areas to tropical regions. Woody debris decomposition rates simulated for eighty-nine locations in North America were within the published range of woody debris decomposition rates for regions in northern hemisphere from 1.6° N to 68.3° N and in Australia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Influence of Environment on Post-Detonation Chemistry and Debris Formation (Abbreviated Final Report: 20-SI-006)

Predicting, responding to, or interpreting the chemical record preserved in debris derived from nuclear events can be challenging due to chemical fractionation. Chemical fractionation is where different species of the evolving radionuclide inventory segregate and/or are lost from the system over the timescales of debris formation. Both historic data and recent research suggest that the interaction and character of the local environment may exert controls on chemical fractionation by influencing the cooling and evolution of the associated fireball as well as the composition of the vapor term and resultant speciation. Prior to this work, an integrated platform permitting dynamic and concurrent consideration of physical and chemical evolution of early time post-detonation event environments did not exist. Our work merged historic data and experimental approaches to support development of a computational framework able to simulate fundamental processes (e.g., entrainment of local environment, oxidation chemistry, and cooling time scales) that may perturb the radionuclide inventory captured in post-detonation debris. Work with historic debris confirmed that entrained environmental material affect debris composition, structure, and radionuclide incorporation. Complementary work utilizing a readily controllable and tunable benchtop setup (a plasma flow reactor) simulated the late cooling of a nuclear fireball (e.g., T < 6000 K) and bounded the sensitivity of actinide speciation and particle size distribution to variations in oxygen concentration and cooling rates. Concurrent laser ablation and laser heating experiments were used to investigate the chemistry and physics of processes occurring in vaporized and/or rapidly heated actinides and other elements in the presence of oxygen. A more computationally efficient microphysical model was developed for predicting and evolving size distributions of particles forming from mixed vapor terms and simulating particle formation processes under a variety of extreme conditions. Continued study of historic nuclear event film confirmed that shockwave data and physics codes agree to within the uncertainty of the data. Good agreement was achieved for thermal emission from an airburst, however the paucity of low-temperature molecular opacity data for mixtures of air, bomb debris, entrained dirt, and water vapor complicate agreement for more elaborate scenarios. A multiphysics code (ALE3D) was modified to bring the necessary physics and chemistry, including these new data and insights, onto a single platform. Code development included improved initialization of large physical systems, modernization of chemistry capabilities, and modifications to enable inclusion of particle transport.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Augmentation of WRF-Hydro to simulate overland-flow- and streamflow-generated debris flow susceptibility in burn scars

In steep wildfire-burned terrains, intense rainfall can produce large runoff that can trigger highly destructive debris flows. However, the ability to accurately characterize and forecast debris flow susceptibility in burned terrains using physics-based tools remains limited. Here, we augment the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro) to simulate both overland and channelized flows and assess postfire debris flow susceptibility over a regional domain. We perform hindcast simulations using high-resolution weather-radar-derived precipitation and reanalysis data to drive non-burned baseline and burn scar sensitivity experiments. Our simulations focus on January 2021 when an atmospheric river triggered numerous debris flows within a wildfire burn scar in Big Sur – one of which destroyed California's famous Highway 1. Compared to the baseline, our burn scar simulation yields dramatic increases in total and peak discharge and shorter lags between rainfall onset and peak discharge, consistent with streamflow observations at nearby US Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gage sites. For the 404 catchments located in the simulated burn scar area, median catchment-area-normalized peak discharge increases by ~ 450 % compared to the baseline. Catchments with anomalously high catchment-area-normalized peak discharge correspond well with post-event field-based and remotely sensed debris flow observations. We suggest that our regional postfire debris flow susceptibility analysis demonstrates WRF-Hydro as a compelling new physics-based tool whose utility could be further extended via coupling to sediment erosion and transport models and/or ensemble-based operational weather forecasts. Given the high-fidelity performance of our augmented version of WRF-Hydro, as well as its potential usage in probabilistic hazard forecasts, we argue for its continued development and application in postfire hydrologic and natural hazard assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Are the stratospheric dust particles meteor ablation debris or interplanetary dust?

Natural and laboratory created fusion crusts and debris from artificial meteor samples were used to develop criteria for recognizing meteor ablation debris in a collection of 5 to 50 micron particles from the stratosphere. These laboratory studies indicate that meteor ablation debris from nickel-iron meteoroids produce spherules containing taenite, wuestite, magnetite, and hematite. These same studies also indicate that ablation debris from chondritic meteoroids produce spheres and fragmentary debris. The spheres may be either silicate rich, containing zoned olivine, magnetite, and glass, or sulfide rich, containing iron oxides (e.g., magnetite, wuestite) and iron sulfides (e.g., pyrrhotite, pentlandite). The fragmentary debris may be either fine-grained aggregates of olivine, magnetite, pyroxene, and occasionally pyrrhotite (derived from the meteorite matrix) or individual olivine and pyroxene grains (derived from meteorite inclusions).

Blanchard, M. B.↗

Debris impact on Earth-orbiting spacecraft

The accumulation of Earth-orbiting space debris leads to important new design considerations. Some 5,000 orbiting objects, many of them explosion fragments, are currently being tracked and future collision of these objects with each other is predicted. These collisions will occur at high velocities. Each collision will be explosive, ejecting thousands, of new orbiting objects, in turn increasing the frequency of future collisions. The debris population may thus become self-regenerative, and the future flux of orbiting debris will exceed that of meteoroids. As a result, a large space structure in Earth-orbit for several years has a significant probability of impact by debris objects. As a design problem, debris impact is significantly different from meteoroid impact. Protection against such large objects may require structural measures. The consideration of debris impact in the design of large, Earth-orbiting spacecraft is recommended.

Smith, D. G.↗

On the Latitudinal Distribution of Debris in the Northern Hemisphere of Mars

Examination of Mariner 9 images showed evidence of debris mantling on Mars. The evidence included craters that appeared to be filled with debris and an apparent lack of small craters. Based on such data, it was suggested that a circumpolar debris mantle exists poleward of about 30N and 30S latitudes. The presence of a debris layer has important implications for the modulation over time of atmospheric pressure by the cap-regolith-atmosphere system. Preliminary efforts in providing constraints on the thickness and distribution of debris are discussed. The initial approach is to examine crater size-frequency data for selected regions on Mars, later expanding the study to include an inventory of aeolian features and other direct indicators of debris deposition. The crater size-frequency distributions for ten regions between latitudes 20N and 80N and covering a range of longitudes were discovered. Crater data were derived from Viking Orbiter images with resolutions of between 26 and 75 meters/pixel.

Guinness, E. A.↗

Decision time on orbital debris

The problem of orbital debris, especially in LEO is discussed, stressing ways to minimize hazards caused by debris. There are over 7,000 objects making up 2.4 X 10 to the 6th kg of debris in LEO with velocities up to 7 km/sec. The least costly way of minimizing hazards from debris is to make spent rocket stages inert, to preclude failures after their useful life, by insuring that all residual propellants and pressurant gases are vented while the stage is still subject to command. A more costly option is the actively controlled deorbit of spent stages and spacecraft at the end of their useful mission life. The removal of inert stages or spacecraft is too costly to be practical. The least expensive methods of removal are deorbit for altitudes below 25,000 km and placing the object in earth-escape trajectory for objects at higher altitudes. NASA is developing a special radar to measure the existing small-particle debris and its changes over time, and international agreements are expected to set standards of operational practices to minimize debris.

Loftus, Joseph P.↗

Shielding against debris

The damage to spacecraft caused by debris and design of the Space Station to minimize damage from debris are discussed. Although current estimates of the debris environment show that fragments bigger than 2 cm are not likely to hit the Space Station, orbital debris from about 0.5 mm to 2 cm will pose a hazard, especially on brittle surfaces, such as glass. Spacesuits are being designed to reduce debris caused dangers to astronauts during EVA. About 5 cm of high-strength aluminum are needed to prevent penetration by a 1 cm piece of aluminum with a mass near 1.5 g colliding at 10 km/sec. Because aluminum bumpers have the drawback of metallic debris ejected outward after a hypervelocity collision, the use of nonmetallic materials for bumpers is being studied. Methods of reducing the weight and volume of the shield for the Space Station are also being researched. A space station habitation module using bumpers has a 99.6 percent chance of avoiding penetration during its lifetime.

Cour-Palais, Burton G.↗

Orbital debris environment and data requirements

Orbital debris is already a major design consideration for Space Station Freedom and is becoming important to the design of unmanned spacecraft. Mathematical models predict the environment will increase with time. The amount it increases is dependent on future operations in space, and how these operations are conducted. Therefore, it is important to understand the sources of debris and which operations will minimize debris generation. This requires that debris be monitored. Currently, NASA plans to have an operational capability to monitor 1 cm debris at 500 km by 1991. However, there are currently no plans to monitor the environment of smaller debris which will be important to future spacecraft design.

Kessler, Donald J.↗

Working group written presentation: Meteoroid/orbital debris effects on materials

Low earth orbit (LEO) is the most significant region relative to orbital debris, since the flux of orbital debris peaks in the region from 800 to 1000 kilometers, and the relative velocities of objects in LEO are about 10 kilometers per second. The flux and relative velocities of objects in geosynchronous orbit (GEO) are small, so that debris is not considered to be a problem in GEO. The meteoroid environment is independent of orbit or altitude, so that its effects are the same in LEO and GEO. The effects of orbital debris and meteoroid impacts can be divided into two broad regions: (1) Erosion and pitting; Small particles (less than 100 microns) are very numerous. Impacts from these generally do not lead to penetration of surfaces, but cause pitting and erosion. The Solar Max surfaces were peppered with thousands of tiny impact pits. (2) Catastrophic impacts; Large debris particles are few in number relative to small debris, so that the probability of an impact is low. However, the effects of an impact of a large particle at 10 kilometers per second are devastating. These effects are examined.

Potter, Andrew↗

Orbital debris research at NASA Johnson Space Center, 1986-1988

Research on orbital debris has intensified in recent years as the number of debris objects in orbit has grown. The population of small debris has now reached the level that orbital debris has become an important design factor for the Space Station. The most active center of research in this field has been the NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center. Work is being done on the measurement of orbital debris, development of models of the debris population, and development of improved shielding against hypervelocity impacts. Significant advances have been made in these areas. The purpose of this document is to summarize these results and provide references for further study.

Reynolds, Robert C.↗

Implication of orbital debris for Space Station design

A large increase in the debris environment combined with the existing space station program requirements results in larger design debris particle sizes being used for designing the Space Station meteoroid and debris protection system. Equipment affecting survivability of the Space Station and its crew is identified and the amount of protection needed is assessed. A combination of passive shielding and active techniques is considered along with the requirements for developing easily augmentable shielding and the use of new shielding materials to reduce launch weight and volume. In addition to passive protection development, collision avoidance procedures moving the station out of the path of very large debris particles must be developed. Innovative solutions, including on-orbit debris detection and tracking devices, active debris interceptors, and 'storm cellars' are addressed.

Nieder, Raymond L.↗