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NASA NTRS2005

Trends from the Long-term Data Record and Models: What Do They Tell Us About our Ability to Predict Ozone Recovery?

Our industrial society has performed an experiment on the stratospheric ozone layer over the last several decades. The initial part of this experiment was the rapidly increasing release of halogen-containing compounds that carry chlorine and bromine to the stratosphere where they can cause a loss of ozone. The present part of this experiment is the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, which has led to a leveling off of these halogen compounds and the beginning of their slow removal from the atmosphere. The observation and attribution of ozone response to the halogens has been a particularly important and difficult task because of the impact of solar cycle uv variation, two major volcanic eruptions (El Chichon and Pinatubo), and interannual dynamic variability of the stratosphere. We have run 3 different simulations of the chemistry and transport of ozone and the minor constituents that affect ozone to help evaluate our understanding of the causes of ozone change and to assess our ability to predict ozone recovery with the removal of halogens from the stratosphere. One simulation, using the Goddard chemical transport model (CTM), had interannual variability in the dynamics for the entire 50 years of simulation, which included the past 3 decades (1974-2004) and the next 2 decades to 2022. The other two simulations used the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) CTM with no dynamical variability: one used a the winds and temperatures from a repeating warm Arctic winter and the other used a repeating cold Arctic winter. All simulations included the effects of aerosol surfaces from volcanic eruptions on chemical reactions as well as the variation in UV over the 11-year solar cycle.

Strahan, Susan↗

NASA NTRS2014

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

Shukla, Shraddhanand↗

NASA NTRS2015

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

Shukla, Shraddhanand↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Influence of Thermophysical Property Variability on Thermal Predictions of Ti-6Al-4V

The additive manufacturing (AM) industry has experienced rapid growth in recent decades as industrial interest in the process has grown. Because of this, there are many groups interested in simulations of the AM process. However, the influence of thermophysical property variability on the melt pool geometry during processing of various AM alloys is unclear. The goal of my work at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) was to characterize this influence on Ti-6Al-4V during AM processing alongside developing a tool to enable equivalent studies on other AM materials. To facilitate this process, a database tool was developed to contain and organize thermophysical data previously reported by primary sources. The specific thermophysical properties of interest for this study were density, specific heat capacity, and conductivity. Thermal diffusivity was calculated using the other three properties. This data was then fit with a Gaussian distribution and then randomly sampled from using Monte Carlo random value sampling. Using the Rosenthal equation, this sample data was used to simulate the temperature field during additive manufacturing and extract the melt pool geometry. Specifically, the melt pool’s length, width, and depth. This process was repeated an arbitrary number of times, with the default being 1000. Once this information was obtained, histograms were made showing the distributions of the sizes of the melt pool’s length, width, and depth. Representative statistical metrics of the distributions were calculated (mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variance). This work found that at the simulated processing values, the melt pool’s width and depth had a 5.7% variation while the length had a 3.2% variation. Additionally, a tool was constructed to graph a thermal color map representation of the melt pool for specific, arbitrary values of density, specific heat, and conductivity. This tool allowed for more efficient plotting of individual queries of the thermophysical properties. The results that were observed in the research were that values reported in literature vary and this variance can have a significant impact on the simulation. Predictions of the melt pool’s dimensions show that length has a standard deviation of approximately 6 μm, width has a standard deviation of approximately 5 μm, and depth can vary by approximately 3 μm. Considering the mean sizes of length, width, and depth are 185 μm, 88 μm, and 44 μm respectively, such a deviation is significant. This shows that depth, for example, could be more than 10% larger or smaller than expected. This demonstrates that variability in the reported thermophysical properties are not negligible and should be expected to have an influence on the results of the laser powder bed fusion additive manufacturing process. When simulating this process in the future, measures should be taken to account for this discrepancy and the uncertainty involved

Justin Martin↗

NASA NTRS2020

Toward Comprehensive Uncertainty Predictions for Remote Imaging Spectroscopy

Remote imaging spectroscopy’s role in Earth science will grow in the coming decade as a series of globe-spanning spectroscopy missions launch from NASA, ESA, and other agencies. The nature of remote imaging spectroscopy will change, advancing from short regional studies to address global multi-year questions. The diversity of data will also grow with exposure to a wider range of biomes and atmospheric conditions. To execute these new investigations we must reconcile diverse observing conditions to derive consistent global maps. To this end, rig- orous uncertainty quantification and propagation enables an optimal synthesis of data accounting for observing conditions and data quality. Understanding data uncertainties is also important for principled hypothesis testing, information content assessment, and informed decision making by end users. We survey prior efforts in uncer- tainty quantification for imaging spectroscopy, and describe methods for validating the accuracy of uncertainty predictions. We conclude with a discussion of remaining challenges and promising avenues for future research.

Susiluoto, Jouni↗

NASA NTRS2017

Coupled Data Assimilation for Integrated Earth System Analysis and Prediction: Goals, Challenges, and Recommendations

The purpose of this report is to identify fundamental issues for coupled data assimilation (CDA), such as gaps in science and limitations in forecasting systems, in order to provide guidance to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on how to facilitate more rapid progress internationally. Coupled Earth system modeling provides the opportunity to extend skillful atmospheric forecasts beyond the traditional two-week barrier by extracting skill from low-frequency state components such as the land, ocean, and sea ice. More generally, coupled models are needed to support seamless prediction systems that span timescales from weather, subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), multiyear, and decadal. Therefore, initialization methods are needed for coupled Earth system models, either applied to each individual component (called Weakly Coupled Data Assimilation - WCDA) or applied the coupled Earth system model as a whole (called Strongly Coupled Data Assimilation - SCDA). Using CDA, in which model forecasts and potentially the state estimation are performed jointly, each model domain benefits from observations in other domains either directly using error covariance information known at the time of the analysis (SCDA), or indirectly through flux interactions at the model boundaries (WCDA). Because the non-atmospheric domains are generally under-observed compared to the atmosphere, CDA provides a significant advantage over single-domain analyses. Next, we provide a synopsis of goals, challenges, and recommendations to advance CDA: Goals: (a) Extend predictive skill beyond the current capability of NWP (e.g. as demonstrated by improving forecast skill scores), (b) produce physically consistent initial conditions for coupled numerical prediction systems and reanalyses (including consistent fluxes at the domain interfaces), (c) make best use of existing observations by allowing observations from each domain to influence and improve the full earth system analysis, (d) develop a robust observation-based identification and understanding of mechanisms that determine the variability of weather and climate, (e) identify critical weaknesses in coupled models and the earth observing system, (f) generate full-field estimates of unobserved or sparsely observed variables, (g) improve the estimation of the external forcings causing changes to climate, (h) transition successes from idealized CDA experiments to real-world applications. Challenges: (a) Modeling at the interfaces between interacting components of coupled Earth system models may be inadequate for estimating uncertainty or error covariances between domains, (b) current data assimilation methods may be insufficient to simultaneously analyze domains containing multiple spatiotemporal scales of interest, (c) there is no standardization of observation data or their delivery systems across domains, (d) the size and complexity of many large-scale coupled Earth system models makes it is difficult to accurately represent uncertainty due to model parameters and coupling parameters, (e) model errors lead to local biases that can transfer between the different Earth system components and lead to coupled model biases and long-term model drift, (e) information propagation across model components with different spatiotemporal scales is extremely complicated, and must be improved in current coupled modeling frameworks, (h) there is insufficient knowledge on how to represent evolving errors in non-atmospheric model components (e.g. as sea ice, land and ocean) on the timescales of NWP.

CDA↗

NASA NTRS2020

Advancing Precipitation Estimation, Prediction, and Impact Studies

Precipitation exhibits a large variability over a wide range of space and time scales: from seconds to years and decades in time; from the millimeter scale of microphysical processes to regional and global scales in space. It also exhibits a large variability in magnitude and frequency, from low extremes resulting in prolonged droughts to high extremes resulting in devastating floods. Improving precipitation estimation and prediction has great societal impact for decision support in water resources management, infrastructure protection and design under accelerating climate extremes, quantifying water and energy balances at the regional to global scales, and predicting hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and droughts that affect the economy and security around the world (e.g., Blunden and Arndt, 2019). Yet, despite significant advances in observations and physical understanding, precipitation still remains one of the most challenging variables to model and predict at local, regional and global scales with significant implications for our ability to quantify water and energy cycle dynamics, inform decision making, and predict hydro-geomorphic hazards in response to precipitation extremes (e.g. Maggioni and Massari, 2019).

Efi Foufoula-Georgiou↗

NASA NTRS2012

An Assessment of CFD/CSD Prediction State-of-the-Art by Using the HART II International Workshop Data

Over the past decade, there have been significant advancements in the accuracy of rotor aeroelastic simulations with the application of computational fluid dynamics methods coupled with computational structural dynamics codes (CFD/CSD). The HART II International Workshop database, which includes descent operating conditions with strong blade-vortex interactions (BVI), provides a unique opportunity to assess the ability of CFD/CSD to capture these physics. In addition to a baseline case with BVI, two additional cases with 3/rev higher harmonic blade root pitch control (HHC) are available for comparison. The collaboration during the workshop permits assessment of structured, unstructured, and hybrid overset CFD/CSD methods from across the globe on the dynamics, aerodynamics, and wake structure. Evaluation of the plethora of CFD/CSD methods indicate that the most important numerical variables associated with most accurately capturing BVI are a two-equation or detached eddy simulation (DES)-based turbulence model and a sufficiently small time step. An appropriate trade-off between grid fidelity and spatial accuracy schemes also appears to be pertinent for capturing BVI on the advancing rotor disk. Overall, the CFD/CSD methods generally fall within the same accuracy; cost-effective hybrid Navier-Stokes/Lagrangian wake methods provide accuracies within 50% the full CFD/CSD methods for most parameters of interest, except for those highly influenced by torsion. The importance of modeling the fuselage is observed, and other computational requirements are discussed.

Smith, Marilyn J.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Measurement science and manufacturing science research

The research program of Semiconductor Research Corp. is managed as three overlapping areas: Manufacturing Sciences, Design Sciences and Microstructure Sciences. A total of 40 universities are participating in the performance of over 200 research tasks. The goals and direction of Manufacturing Sciences research became more clearly focused through the efforts of the Manufacturing Sciences Committee of the SRC Technical Advisory Board (TAB). The mission of the SRC Manufacturing Research is the quantification, control, and understanding of semiconductor manufacturing process necessary to achieve a predictable and profitable product output in the competitive environment of the next decade. The 1994 integrated circuit factory must demonstrate a three level hierarchy of control: (1) operation control, (2) process control, and (3) process design. These levels of control are briefly discussed.

Phillips, D. Howard↗

NASA NTRS1989

Survey Of Wind Tunnels At Langley Research Center

Report presented at AIAA 14th Aerodynamic Testing Conference on current capabilities and planned improvements at NASA Langley Research Center's major wind tunnels. Focuses on 14 major tunnels, 8 unique in world, 3 unique in country. Covers Langley Spin Tunnel. Includes new National Transonic Facility (NTF). Also surveys Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel (UPWT). Addresses resurgence of inexpensive simple-to-operate research tunnels. Predicts no shortage of tools for aerospace researcher and engineer in next decade or two.

Bower, Robert E.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Science Formulation of Global Precipitation Mission (GPM)

In late 2001, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission was approved as a new start by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The new mission, which is now in its formulation phase, is motivated by a number of scientific questions that are posed over a range of space and time scales that generally fall within the discipline of the global water and energy cycle (GWEC), although not restricted to that branch of research. Recognizing that satellite rainfall datasets are now a foremost tool for understanding global climate variability out to decadal scales and beyond, for improving weather forecasting, and for producing better predictions of hydrometeorological processes including short-term hazardous flooding and seasonal fresh water resources assessment, a comprehensive and internationally sanctioned global measuring strategy has led to the GPM mission. The GPM mission plans to expand the scope of rainfall measurement through use of a multi-member satellite constellation that will be contributed by a number of world nations. This talk overviews the GPM scientific research program that has been fostered within NASA, then focuses on scientific progress that is being made in various areas in the course of the mission formulation phase that are of interest to the Natural Hazards scientific community. This latter part of the talk addresses research issues that have become central to the GPM science implementation plan concerning the rate of the global water cycling, cloud macrophysical-microphysical processes of flood-producing storms, and the general improvement in measuring precipitation at the fundamental microphysical level.

Smith, Eric A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Relationship of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission to Global Change Research

In late 2001, the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission was approved as a new start by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). This new mission is motivated by a number of scientific questions that are posed over a range of space and time scales that generally fall within the discipline of the global water and energy cycle (GWEC). Recognizing that satellite rainfall datasets are now a foremost tool for understanding global climate variability out to decadal scales and beyond, for improving weather forecasting, and for producing better predictions of hydrometeorological processes including short-term hazardous flooding and seasonal fresh water resources assessment, a comprehensive and internationally sanctioned global measuring strategy has led to the GPM mission. The GPM mission plans to expand the scope of rainfall measurement through use of a multi-member satellite constellation that will be contributed by a number of world nations. This talk overviews the GPM scientific research program that has been fostered within NASA, then focuses on scientific progress that is being made in various research areas in the course of the mission formulation phase that are of interest to the global change scientific community. This latter part of the talk addresses research issues that have become central to the GPM science implementation plan concerning: (1) the rate of global water cycling through the atmosphere and surface and the relationship of precipitation variability to the sustained rate of the water cycle; (2) the relationship between climate change and cloud macrophysical- microphysical processes; and (3) the general improvement in measuring precipitation at the fundamental microphysical level that will take place during the GPM era and an explanation of how these improvements are expected to come about.

Smith, Eric A.↗

NASA NTRS2007

A Fast Method of Deriving the Kirchhoff Formula for Moving Surfaces

The Kirchhoff formula for a moving surface is very useful in many wave propagation problems, particularly in the prediction of noise from rotating machinery. Several publications in the last two decades have presented derivations of the Kirchhoff formula for moving surfaces in both time and frequency domains. Here we present a method originally developed by Farassat and Myers in time domain that is both simple and direct. It is based on generalized function theory and the useful concept of imbedding the problem in the unbounded three-dimensional space. We derive an inhomogeneous wave equation with the source terms that involve Dirac delta functions with their supports on the moving data surface. This wave equation is then solved using the simple free space Green's function of the wave equation resulting in the Kirchhoff formula. The algebraic manipulations are minimal and simple. We do not need the Green's theorem in four dimensions and there is no ambiguity in the interpretation of any terms in the final formulas. Furthermore, this method also gives the simplest derivation of the classical Kirchhoff formula which has a fairly lengthy derivation in physics and applied mathematics books. The Farassat-Myers method can be used easily in frequency domain.

Farassat, F.↗

NASA NTRS2008

The Formation of Coronal Loops by Thermal Instability in Three Dimensions

Plasma loops in solar active regions have been observed in EUV and soft X-rays for decades. Their formation mechanism and properties, however, are still not fully understood. Predictions by early models, based on 1D hydrostatic equilibria with uniform plasma heating, are not consistent with high-resolution measurements. In this Letter, we demonstrate, via 3D simulations, that a class of heating models can lead to the dynamic formation of plasma loops provided the plasma is heated sufficiently to match SXT soft X-ray measurements. We show that individual flux tubes in a 3D magnetic structure tend to stand out against their neighbors. The loops have large aspect ratios and nearly uniform cross sections in the corona, similar to those observed by EIT and TRACE. The coronal EUV emission from these thermally unstable solutions is roughly consistent with EIT measurements. The solution oscillates in time through a large-amplitude, nonlinear cycle, leading to repeated brightening and fading of the loops.

Mok, Yung↗

NASA NTRS2013

NASA Brief: Q-Thruster Physics

Q-thrusters are a low-TRL form of electric propulsion that operates on the principle of pushing off of the quantum vacuum. A terrestrial analog to this is to consider how a submarine uses its propeller to push a column of water in one direction, while the sub recoils in the other to conserve momentum -the submarine does not carry a "tank" of sea water to be used as propellant. In our case, we use the tools of Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) to show how the thruster pushes off of the quantum vacuum which can be thought of as a sea of virtual particles -principally electrons and positrons that pop into and out of existence, and where fields are stronger, there are more virtual particles. The idea of pushing off the quantum vacuum has been in the technical literature for a few decades, but to date, the obstacle has been the magnitude of the predicted thrust which has been derived analytically to be very small, and therefore not likely to be useful for human spaceflight. Our recent theoretical model development and test data suggests that we can greatly increase the magnitude of the negative pressure of the quantum vacuum and generate a specific force such that technology based on this approach can be competitive for in-space propulsion approx. 0.1N/kW), and possibly for terrestrial applications (approx. 10N/kW). As an additional validation of the approach, the theory allows calculation of physics constants from first principles: Gravitational constant, Planck constant, Bohr radius, dark energy fraction, electron mass.

White, Harold↗

NASA NTRS1985

The detection of long-term changes in stratospheric ozone Scientific requirements and current results from satellite-based measurement systems

The ability to detect subtle trends in upper stratospheric ozone places strict requirements on satellite-based Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) sensors intended for this purpose. Simulation of the long-term change in backscattered radiance indicates trends in the range 1.0-1.6 percent per decade depending on wavelength for an ozone depletion scenario based on chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) chemistry. The maximum percentage change in the measured quantity, as would be sensed by the Nimbus-7 SBUV experiment and future similar instruments, is roughly a factor of two less than the maximum percentage change in ozone, the quantity of geophysical interest. Furthermore, interannual variations, whose magnitude can be estimated from the SBUV data set, could obscure a CFC-related trend in radiance when viewed over a period less than a decade. Even when such atmospheric noise and possible solar cycle variations are neglected, the detection of an ozone trend of the magnitude predicted for CFC-related chemistry requires a set of radiance measurements that are internally consistent to 1 percent or better over a time span of a decade.

Frederick, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Predicting Hydrological Drought: Relative Contributions of Soil Moisture and Snow Information to Seasonal Streamflow Prediction Skill

in this study we examine how knowledge of mid-winter snow accumulation and soil moisture conditions contribute to our ability to predict streamflow months in advance. A first "synthetic truth" analysis focuses on a series of numerical experiments with multiple sophisticated land surface models driven with a dataset of observations-based meteorological forcing spanning multiple decades and covering the continental United States. Snowpack information by itself obviously contributes to the skill attained in streamflow prediction, particularly in the mountainous west. The isolated contribution of soil moisture information, however, is found to be large and significant in many areas, particularly in the west but also in region surrounding the Great Lakes. The results are supported by a supplemental, observations-based analysis using (naturalized) March-July streamflow measurements covering much of the western U.S. Additional forecast experiments using start dates that span the year indicate a strong seasonality in the skill contributions; soil moisture information, for example, contributes to kill at much longer leads for forecasts issued in winter than for those issued in summer.

Koster, R.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Shock Radiation Tests for Saturn and Uranus Entry Probes

This paper describes a test series in the Electric Arc Shock Tube at NASA Ames Research Center with the objective of quantifying shock-layer radiative heating magnitudes for future probe entries into Saturn and Uranus atmospheres. Normal shock waves are measured in Hydrogen-Helium mixtures (89:11 by volume) at freestream pressures between 13-66 Pa (0.1-0.5 Torr) and velocities from 20-30 kms. No shock layer radiation is detected within measurement limits below 25 kms, a finding consistent with predictions for Uranus entries. Between 25-30 kms, radiance is quantified from the Vacuum Ultraviolet through Near Infrared, with focus on the Lyman-a and Balmer series lines of Hydrogen. Shock profiles are analyzed for electron number density and electronic state distribution. The shocks do not equilibrate over several cm, and in many cases the state distributions are non-Boltzmann. Radiation data are compared to simulations of Decadal Survey entries for Saturn and shown to be as much as 8x lower than predicted with the Boltzmann radiation model. Radiance is observed in front of the shock layer, the characteristics of which match the expected diffusion length.

Hydrogen↗