Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Deep uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9

Simulations using a 3D-moment turbulence closure in a two-dimensional cloud model - Comparisons with observations

A method for deep cumulus cloud simulations is presented, in which the plumes or clouds are simulated using a two-dimensional axisymmetric numerical cloud model with third-moment turbulence closure. This method is based on the assumption that the only uncertainty in the turbulence closure is in the turbulent length scale specification. Therefore, the length scale is varied, and, using different length scales, the simulated plumes are compared to the observed ones, making it possible to optimize the length scale prescription.

Krueger, Steven K.↗

An improved error assessment for the GEM-T1 gravitational model

Several tests were designed to determine the correct error variances for the GEM-T1 gravitational solution which was derived exclusively from satellite tracking data. The basic method employs both wholly independent and dependent subset data solutions and produces a full field coefficient by coefficient estimate of the model uncertainties. The GEM-T1 errors were further analyzed using a method based upon eigenvalue-eigenvector analysis which calibrates the entire covariance matrix. Dependent satellite and independent altimetric and surface gravity data sets, as well as independent satellite deep resonance information, confirm essentially the same error assessment.

Lerch, F. J.↗

The Spectrum of the Cosmic X-ray Background Observed by RTXE/PCA

We have analyzed a large set of Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer/Proportional Counter Array (RXTE/PCA) scanning and slewing observations performed between April 1996 and March 1999. We obtained the 3-20 keV spectrum of the cosmic X-ray background (CXB) by subtracting Earth-occulted observations from observations of the X-ray sky at high galactic latitude and far away from sources. The sky coverage is approximately 22.6 x 10(exp 3) square degrees. The PCA spectrum of CXB in 3-20 keV energy band is adequately approximated by a single power law with photon index GAMMA approximately 1.4 and normalization at 1 keV approximately 9.5 phot/s/square centimeter/keV/sr. Instrumental background uncertainty precludes accurate RXTE/PCA measurements of the spectrum of cosmic X-ray background at energies above 15 keV and therefore we cannot detect the high energy cutoff observed by the High Energy Astronomical Observatory (HEAO)-1 A2 experiment. Deep observations of the 6 high latitude points used to model the PCA background provide a coarse measure of the spatial variation of the CXB. The CXB variations are consistent with a fixed spectral shape and variable normalization characterized by a fractional rms amplitude of approximately 7% on angular scales of approximately 1 square deg.

Revnivtsev, M.↗

Optimal Estimation of Rain Rate Profiles from Single-Frequency Radar Echoes

The significant ambiguities inherent in the determination of a particular vertical rain intensity profile from a given time profile of radar echo powers measured by a downward-looking (spaceborne or airborne) radar at a single attenuating frequency are well-documented. Indeed, one already knows that by appropriately varying the parameters of the reflectivity-rain-rate (Z - R) and/or attenuation-rain-rate (k - R) relationships, one can produce several substantially different hypothetical rain rate profiles which would have the same radar power profile. Imposing the additional constraint that the path-averaged rain-rate be a given fixed number does reduce the ambiguities but falls far short of eliminating them. While we now know how to generate as many mutually ambiguous rain-rate profiles from a given profile of received radar reflectivities as we like, there remains to produce a quantitative measure to assess how likely each of these profiles is, what the appropriate 'average' profile should be, and what the 'variance' of these multiple solutions is. Of course, in order to do this, one needs to spell out the stochastic constraints that can allow us to make sense of the words 'average' and 'variance' in a mathematically rigorous way. Such a quantitative approach would be particularly well-suited for such systems as the proposed Precipitation Radar of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Indeed, one would then be able to use the radar reflectivities measured by the TRMM radar from one particular look in order to estimate the most likely rain-rate profile that would have produced the measurements, as well as the uncertainty in the estimated rain-rates as a function of range. Such an optimal approach is described in this paper.

deep space flight computer real-time advanced spac↗

InSight orbit determination

The InSight mission relied on accurate deep-space navigation for a successful Mars landing on November 26, 2018. In this paper, we discuss the role of the cruise Orbit Determination team, whose responsibilities included determining the spacecraft state, predicting the future trajectory, and quantifying the uncertainty associated with those estimates. In particular, we will focus on spacecraft dynamic modeling, small forces due to attitude control, radiometric tracking data, filter strategies, uncertainty quantification, and responses to unexpected flight situations. We will also provide analysis of reconstructed maneuvers, small forces, and delivery accuracy at Mars arrival.

Seubert, Jill↗

Estimating Sampling Biases and Measurement Uncertainties of AIRS-AMSU-A Temperature and Water Vapor Observations Using MERRA Reanalysis

We use MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research Applications) temperature and water vapor data to estimate the sampling biases of climatologies derived from the AIRS/AMSU-A (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A) suite of instruments. We separate the total sampling bias into temporal and instrumental components. The temporal component is caused by the AIRS/AMSU-A orbit and swath that are not able to sample all of time and space. The instrumental component is caused by scenes that prevent successful retrievals. The temporal sampling biases are generally smaller than the instrumental sampling biases except in regions with large diurnal variations, such as the boundary layer, where the temporal sampling biases of temperature can be +/- 2 K and water vapor can be 10% wet. The instrumental sampling biases are the main contributor to the total sampling biases and are mainly caused by clouds. They are up to 2 K cold and greater than 30% dry over mid-latitude storm tracks and tropical deep convective cloudy regions and up to 20% wet over stratus regions. However, other factors such as surface emissivity and temperature can also influence the instrumental sampling bias over deserts where the biases can be up to 1 K cold and 10% wet. Some instrumental sampling biases can vary seasonally and/or diurnally. We also estimate the combined measurement uncertainties of temperature and water vapor from AIRS/AMSU-A and MERRA by comparing similarly sampled climatologies from both data sets. The measurement differences are often larger than the sampling biases and have longitudinal variations.

MERRA↗

An Empirical Determination of the Intergalactic Background Light Using Near-Infrared Deep Galaxy Survey Data Out to 5 Micrometers and the Gamma-Ray Opacity of the Universe

We extend our previous model-independent determination of the intergalactic background light, based purely on galaxy survey data, out to a wavelength of 5 micrometers. Our approach enables us to constrain the range of photon densities, based on the uncertainties from observationally determined luminosity densities and colors. We further determine a 68% confidence upper and lower limit on the opacity of the universe to gamma-rays up to energies of 1.6/(1 + z) terraelectron volts. A comparison of our lower limit redshift-dependent opacity curves to the opacity limits derived from the results of both ground-based air Cerenkov telescope and Fermi-LAT observations of PKS 1424+240 allows us to place a new upper limit on the redshift of this source, independent of IBL modeling.

BL Lacertae↗

Wavelet transform analysis of the small-scale X-ray structure of the cluster Abell 1367

We have developed a new technique based on a wavelet transform analysis to quantify the small-scale (less than a few arcminutes) X-ray structure of clusters of galaxies. We apply this technique to the ROSAT position sensitive proportional counter (PSPC) and Einstein high-resolution imager (HRI) images of the central region of the cluster Abell 1367 to detect sources embedded within the diffuse intracluster medium. In addition to detecting sources and determining their fluxes and positions, we show that the wavelet analysis allows a characterization of the sources extents. In particular, the wavelet scale at which a given source achieves a maximum signal-to-noise ratio in the wavelet images provides an estimate of the angular extent of the source. To account for the widely varying point response of the ROSAT PSPC as a function of off-axis angle requires a quantitative measurement of the source size and a comparison to a calibration derived from the analysis of a Deep Survey image. Therefore, we assume that each source could be described as an isotropic two-dimensional Gaussian and used the wavelet amplitudes, at different scales, to determine the equivalent Gaussian Full Width Half-Maximum (FWHM) (and its uncertainty) appropriate for each source. In our analysis of the ROSAT PSPC image, we detect 31 X-ray sources above the diffuse cluster emission (within a radius of 24 min), 16 of which are apparently associated with cluster galaxies and two with serendipitous, background quasars. We find that the angular extents of 11 sources exceed the nominal width of the PSPC point-spread function. Four of these extended sources were previously detected by Bechtold et al. (1983) as 1 sec scale features using the Einstein HRI. The same wavelet analysis technique was applied to the Einstein HRI image. We detect 28 sources in the HRI image, of which nine are extended. Eight of the extended sources correspond to sources previously detected by Bechtold et al. Overall, using both the PSPC and the HRI observations, we detect 16 extended features, of which nine have galaxies coincided with the X-ray-measured positions (within the positional error circles). These extended sources have luminosities lying in the range (3 - 30) x 10(exp 40) ergs/s and gas masses of approximately (1 - 30) x 10(exp 9) solar mass, if the X-rays are of thermal origin. We confirm the presence of extended features in A1367 first reported by Bechtold et al. (1983). The nature of these systems remains uncertain. The luminosities are large if the emission is attributed to single galaxies, and several of the extended features have no associated galaxy counterparts. The extended features may be associated with galaxy groups, as suggested by Canizares, Fabbiano, & Trinchieri (1987), although the number required is large.

Grebeney, S. A.↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-10863-DND

One important aspect of successful climate monitoring is satellite calibration. There is at least a 25-year of operational geostationary (GEO) record available for climate studies, if properly calibrated. The Global Space-based Inter-Calibration System (GSICS) project is another effort to provide the climate community consistent calibration across multiple platforms. Also, the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project, provides consistent GEO retrieved cloud properties and derived broadband fluxes across multiple platforms. This year GSICS is focusing on geostationary visible channel calibration. The GSICS strategy is to use multiple approaches, such as cross-calibrating the GEO radiances against MODIS as a reference, deep convective clouds as bright stable targets, deserts, sun-glint, stars, moon and other model based calibration methods. Each of these methods is independent of each other and can assess the stability of the GEO visible instrument with differing uncertainties. This study focuses on the inter-calibration of the GEO radiances against MODIS as a reference by using collocated, and coincident ray-matched radiances. The advantage of the ray-matching technique is that it provides a full dynamic range of radiances to check the linearity of the GEO visible instrument. This presentation will focus on the technique, some error analysis, comparisons with other methods, and an approach to inter-calibrate historical GEOs before MODIS.

D R Doelling↗

Assessment of MODIS and VIIRS Calibration Consistency for Reflective Solar Bands Using Vicarious Approaches

The Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is the key instrument of the NASA’s Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra and Aqua missions, launched in December 1999 and May 2002, respectively. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) expands the MODIS legacy, launched onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite in October 2011 and NOAA20 satellite in November 2017, respectively. The MODIS and VIIRS sensors have a similar design with spectrally matched reflective solar spectral bands (RSB). Their on-board calibration components include a solar diffuser and a solar diffuser stability monitor for RSB, a V-grooved blackbody for the thermal emissive bands (TEB), and a space view as a background reference. This study evaluates the calibration consistency of the Terra and Aqua MODIS RSB based on the current Collection 6.1 L1B data products generated by the NASA MODAPS, which have used consistent calibration coefficient look up tables (LUT) for the entire data-record. In the case of SNPP and NOAA20 VIIRS, the latest L1B data produced by NASA Land SIPS are used. Several independent vicarious approaches are used to examine the stability and consistency of the at-sensor reflectance among MODIS and VIIRS instruments. Vicarious approaches include observations from simultaneous nadir overpasses (SNO), the Libya-4 desert and Dome C snow sites, as well as deep convective clouds (DCC). Impact of existing band spectral difference on the reflectance is corrected using hyperspectral observations provided by Europe Space Agency’s SCIAMACHY sensor. Results of this study provide comprehensive assessments of calibration performance, radiometric agreement and associated uncertainties.

MODIS↗

The Threat of Uncertainty: Why Using Traditional Approaches for Evaluating Spacecraft Reliability are Insufficient for Future Human Mars Missions

Through the Evolvable Mars Campaign (EMC) study, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) continues to evaluate potential approaches for sending humans beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). A key aspect of these missions is the strategy that is employed to maintain and repair the spacecraft systems, ensuring that they continue to function and support the crew. Long duration missions beyond LEO present unique and severe maintainability challenges due to a variety of factors, including: limited to no opportunities for resupply, the distance from Earth, mass and volume constraints of spacecraft, high sensitivity of transportation element designs to variation in mass, the lack of abort opportunities to Earth, limited hardware heritage information, and the operation of human-rated systems in a radiation environment with little to no experience. The current approach to maintainability, as implemented on ISS, which includes a large number of spares pre-positioned on ISS, a larger supply sitting on Earth waiting to be flown to ISS, and an on demand delivery of logistics from Earth, is not feasible for future deep space human missions. For missions beyond LEO, significant modifications to the maintainability approach will be required.Through the EMC evaluations, several key findings related to the reliability and safety of the Mars spacecraft have been made. The nature of random and induced failures presents significant issues for deep space missions. Because spare parts cannot be flown as needed for Mars missions, all required spares must be flown with the mission or pre-positioned. These spares must cover all anticipated failure modes and provide a level of overall reliability and safety that is satisfactory for human missions. This will require a large amount of mass and volume be dedicated to storage and transport of spares for the mission. Further, there is, and will continue to be, a significant amount of uncertainty regarding failure rates for spacecraft components. This uncertainty makes it much more difficult to anticipate failures and will potentially require an even larger amount of spares to provide an acceptable level of safety. Ultimately, the approach to maintenance and repair applied to ISS, focusing on the supply of spare parts, may not be tenable for deep space missions. Other approaches, such as commonality of components, simplification of systems, and in-situ manufacturing will be required.

Stromgren, Chel↗

Incorporation of New Convective Ice Microphysics into the NASA GISS GCM and Impacts on Cloud Ice Water Path (IWP) Simulation

The CMIP5 configurations of the GISS Model-E2 GCM simulated a mid- and high latitude ice IWP that decreased by 50 relative to that simulated for CMIP3 (Jiang et al. 2012; JGR). Tropical IWP increased by 15 in CMIP5. While the tropical IWP was still within the published upper-bounds of IWP uncertainty derived using NASA A-Train satellite observations, it was found that the upper troposphere (200 mb) ice water content (IWC) exceeded the published upper-bound by a factor of 2. This was largely driven by IWC in deep-convecting regions of the tropics.Recent advances in the model-E2 convective parameterization have been found to have a substantial impact on tropical IWC. These advances include the development of both a cold pool parameterization (Del Genio et al. 2015) and new convective ice parameterization. In this presentation, we focus on the new parameterization of convective cloud ice that was developed using data from the NASA TC4 Mission. Ice particle terminal velocity formulations now include information from a number of NASA field campaigns. The new parameterization predicts both an ice water mass weighted-average particle diameter and a particle cross sectional area weighted-average size diameter as a function of temperature and ice water content. By assuming a gamma-distribution functional form for the particle size distribution, these two diameter estimates are all that are needed to explicitly predict the distribution of ice particles as a function of particle diameter.GCM simulations with the improved convective parameterization yield a 50 decrease in upper tropospheric IWC, bringing the tropical and global mean IWP climatologies into even closer agreement with the A-Train satellite observation best estimates.

tropical regions↗

Hybrid Modeling for Complex Systems Health Management

The research work presents application of hybrid physics-informed machine learning to a representative electric powertrain for unmanned aerial vehicles. The model is composed of physics-derived and empirical equations, integrated with connected networks that are strategically placed within the model to substitute equations that are subject to large uncertainty. Polynomial fit driven by heuristics or empirical observations can be substituted by more flexible networks that can minimize the error between model predictions and observations without being restricted to a predefined functional form. This modeling strategy allows training of networks deep inside the model and unknown parameters in a single learning stage. The powertrain model consists of Li-ion batteries, electronic speed controller with pulse-width modulation, and brush-less DC motor with connected propeller. Results obtained from combination of laboratory and simulation tests are discussed in this work.

PINNS↗

Hybrid Modeling of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Electric Powertrain for Fault Detection and Diagnostics

This paper shows the application of hybrid physics-informed machine learning to a representative electric powertrain for unmanned aerial vehicles. The model is composed of physics-derived principles and empirical equations, as well as fully connected networks that are strategically placed within the model to substitute equations that are subject to large uncertainty. Polynomial fit driven by heuristics or empirical observations can be substituted by more flexible networks that can minimize the error between model predictions and observations without being restricted to a predefined functional form. This modeling strategy allows training of networks deep inside the model and unknown parameters in a single learning stage. It has already been applied to Li-ion batteries in the past, and in this work, we extend the applications to other components of an electric powertrain, namely electronic speed controller with pulse-width modulation, and brushless DC motor with connected propeller. Training and testing of the model is carried out using experimental data from Li-ion battery discharge and powertrain testing in a laboratory environment.

Physics-Informed Machine Learning↗

Physics Informed Neural Nets for Systems Health Management

To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current health state of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditions. Development in data-driven algorithms in regression of complex nonlinear functions and classification tasks have generated a growing interest in artificial intelligence for industrial applications. Complex multi-physics models as well as digital twins, once purely built on physics and corresponding simplified lumped parameter iterations, can now benefit from machine learning algorithms to mitigate the lack of understanding of some complex behavior. The research work presents application of physics-informed neural nets application to a representative electric powertrain for unmanned aerial vehicles. The model is composed of physics-derived and empirical equations, integrated with connected networks that are strategically placed within the model to substitute equations that are subject to large uncertainty. Polynomial fit driven by heuristics or empirical observations can be substituted by more flexible networks that can minimize the error between model predictions and observations without being restricted to a predefined functional form. This modeling strategy allows training of networks deep inside the model and unknown parameters in a single learning stage.

Physics Informed↗

Model Based Approaches for Fault Detection, Prognostics, Decision Making in Complex Systems

The presentation discusses application of model based approaches to complex systems. The model is composed of physics-derived and empirical equations, integrated with connected networks that are strategically placed within the model to substitute equations that are subject to large uncertainty. Polynomial fit driven by heuristics or empirical observations can be substituted by more flexible networks that can minimize the error between model predictions and observations without being restricted to a predefined functional form. This modeling strategy allows training of networks deep inside the model and unknown parameters in a single learning stage.

Physics Informed↗

Understanding Relationships Between Satellite, Model, and Ground-Based Surface Temperature Characterizations From Overcast to Clear Conditions in Support of Satellite Remote Sensing of Clouds and Radiation

Accurate and consistent global estimates of cloud coverage and their properties are fundamental to long-term Earth radiation budget (ERB) monitoring efforts like the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project. Cloud detection algorithms often apply thresholding approaches to identify where clouds occur by comparing satellite-measured radiances with those that are expected under cloud-free conditions. In addition, once a cloud is detected, the derivation of cloud optical and microphysical properties also requires knowledge of the background radiances below the cloud. In the infrared, knowledge of the surface emissivity and the expected skin temperature under both cloudy and cloud-free conditions is needed. These traits are generally well known over the oceans. Over land, however, comparisons between satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST) with that characterized in numerical weather analyses reveal large differences in many parts of the world, often exceeding 5 K, which can lead to significant satellite cloud detection and cloud property retrieval errors. Furthermore, clouds have a dramatic influence on the LST, and therefore characterization of that model parameter also depends on the capability of the model to accurately resolve clouds. Thus, the LST characterized in models is, at times, a poor approximation for what would otherwise be observed, thereby impeding accurate satellite cloud retrievals. As a result, we seek to develop a more robust method for estimating the LST required for satellite cloud characterizations. This effort is accomplished through a combination of surface emission/air temperature relationship studies in all-sky conditions using ground measurement stations, along with deep neural network (DNN) estimates of expected LST under overcast and cloud-free conditions. We demonstrate that substituting DNN-predicted LST for that generated by numerical models can mitigate model-inherent diurnal dependencies and reduce overall bias and uncertainty relative to satellite/ground observations by 0.5–4 K and 0.5–2 K, respectively. It is expected that this work will lead to improved satellite cloud retrievals that enhance ERB monitoring efforts.

B Scarino↗

Regenerative pseudo-noise ranging for deep space applications

Currently, ranging for deep space missions is performed by turning around the uplink ranging modulation and remodulating it onto the downlink carrier. This method results in about 1.5 MHz of noise also being modulated onto the downlink, severely degrading the received ranging SNR on the ground. This degradation must be compensated for by either increasing the integration time of the received signal, which increases the length of time for the track, or increasing the downlink ranging signal's modulation index, which decreases the power available for the telemetry modulation. A method for the regeneration on the spacecraft of a pseudo noise (PN) ranging signal has been developed. This method allows for an increase of up to 30dB in the received downlink ranging power. The increased power can be used to decrease the measurement uncertainty, reduce the time of the measurement, or increase the power allocated to the downlink telemetry. This system was implemented in the Spacecraft Transponding Modem that was developed by JPL for NASA.

deep space ranging↗