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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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154 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

An On-Demand Electric Transit Case Study of New Rochelle, New York

This work explores the extent to which an on-demand mobility service utilizing lightweight electric vehicles (EVs) provides community and sustainability benefits in New Rochelle, New York. Travel and survey data from September 2019 through 2023 are used to describe the system and estimate impacts on travelers. The system was found to be used more by women (nearly 60%) and younger demographics (>65% under the age of 42), with peak use in the middle of the day and a grocery store as a top origin and destination. The service is utilized primarily for short trips (86% under 2 miles), and the small, right-sized EVs have carbon dioxide emissions associated with charging the fleet that are roughly one-quarter of the fleet emissions of conventional hybrid vans and nearly 50 times less than a fleet of diesel buses. Mapping current socio-spatial dynamics of travel demand can inform equity performance, as well as assist future planning and service area development and possible extensions to similar smaller, lower-density environments that are nearby and connected to major metropolitan areas. The findings in this case study suggest on-demand electric transit may be a significant and growing space for advancing clean and highly valued public mobility services. Sustainable public transport interventions that consider right-sized, electric, on-demand vehicles can help achieve improved accessibility and reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. This work was presented at the Transportation Research Board (TRB) 2025 Annual Meeting on January 7, 2025.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coupled social and infrastructure approaches for enhancing solar energy adoption. Final Report

The goal of this project was to work with rural electric cooperatives to facilitate the diffusion of solar energy adoption in households located in the rural and semi-urban areas of Virginia by identifying social and behavioral factors that might be unique to rural regions; and develop a model to calculate the solar adoption propensity score for household based on their demographics, social and behavioral characteristics which would provide an objective metric to cooperatives that can be further used to do targeted marketing of rooftop solar panels. This was achieved through the following tasks: (1) Conducted a survey of the members of Virginia electric cooperatives to identify demographic, social, financial and behavioral attributes of individuals who are likely to adopt rooftop solar panels. (2) Developed a highly detailed, data-driven, agent-based model of the population of Virginia, focusing on the rural regions. (3) Developed diffusion models that use social, behavioral, and demographic factors, and peer effects to study their impact on solar adoption in rural areas. (4) Built a prototype tool based on the diffusion model to help study market segmentation in rural areas and made it available to National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA). (5) Results and recommendations derived from the model were provided to NRECA to be shared with participating cooperatives. (6) Results were published in peer reviewed journals, conference proceedings and book chapters, and ideas disseminated through presentations and newsletters. There were several important methodological contributions made under this project which are detailed in the published papers, including: (1) Built a decision-adjusted model for predicting adoptors with imbalanced training data; (2) designed seeding strategies to maximize adoption given a fixed budget; (3) built a methodology to compare different agent based models; (4) created models to identify important factors that influence decision to adopt solar panels; and (5) built a methodology for building household profiles of solar generation to study the duck curve phenomenon. The team included members from the University of Virginia (lead), National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA), Arizona State University, Virginia Tech and Sandia National Laboratory. Note that no individual entity or stakeholder has incentive to promote solar in rural regions. Most of the research and work focuses around urban regions where the potential for growth in solar adoption is higher due to higher population density. This puts rural areas at a disadvantage. By improving the diffusion of solar adoption in rural parts of the country, we can not only provide clean energy to rural areas but also promote job growth and improves energy independence.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

New Norms or Old Habits: Evaluating Interlinked Trajectories of Online Shopping and Work Commute Post-Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly shifted travel behaviors, with major changes observed in online shopping and travel to work. Despite considerable research into pandemic-induced changes in travel behavior, it remains uncertain whether these new patterns have persisted or reverted to pre-pandemic norms. This study addresses this uncertainty by evaluating whether shifts in online shopping and work travel during the pandemic have become permanently ingrained in individuals' daily routine. Leveraging data from the 2022 National Household Travel Survey, a bivariate ordered probit model is employed to analyze changes in online shopping and work travel - whether they have increased, decreased, or remained stable compared to pre-pandemic levels across different population segments. The analysis finds that the pandemic did not significantly alter online shopping for home delivery and travel to work for the majority of society. However, a substantial portion of respondents reported increased online shopping for home delivery and reduced travel to work compared to pre-pandemic levels, with online shopping trends appearing more permanent. Segment-wise analysis and model results indicate heterogeneity in behavioral shifts with females engaging more in online shopping, while zero-vehicle households are traveling less to work, compared to pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, increase in online shopping frequency is significantly and negatively correlated with decrease in traveling to work. These findings highlight the need for improved digital infrastructure, flexible work policies, and integrated transportation solutions tailored to evolving demographic and socioeconomic needs in the post-pandemic era. Additionally, the study calls for integrating passenger and freight movement in a single framework rather than treating them in silos.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cross‐Cultural Validation of the Binge Eating Disorder Screener‐7 ( BEDS ‐7) Across 42 Countries

ABSTRACT Objective This study aimed to evaluate the reliability and validity of the Binge Eating Disorder Screener‐7 (BEDS‐7) across 42 countries and 26 languages, assessing its reliability and validity as a screening tool for binge‐eating disorder (BED) in diverse cultural contexts. Specifically, it sought to enhance early recognition of BED symptoms in primary care settings globally, contributing to a standardized framework for assessing BED. Method The International Sex Survey, a cross‐sectional online study, was conducted in 42 countries and 26 languages. A diverse community sample of 82,243 participants, aged 18 years or older, completed the BEDS‐7 and measures of sexuality, mental health, substance use, and sociodemographic characteristics. Confirmatory factor analyses and tests of measurement invariance were employed to evaluate the reliability and validity of the BEDS‐7 across languages, countries, genders, and sexual orientations. Results The BEDS‐7 demonstrated scalar factorial invariance across languages and countries, indicating consistent factor loadings and item intercepts. In contrast, the screener showed residual invariance across gender and sexual orientation groups, supporting its robustness across these demographics. Kruskal–Wallis tests revealed significant differences in BED symptoms across languages, countries, genders, and sexual orientations, with the highest BED scores observed among queer, pansexual, and gender‐diverse individuals. The BEDS‐7 also demonstrated adequate reliability (Cronbach's alpha > 0.80) and moderate criterion validity. Discussion The findings provide further evidence of the reliability and validity of the BEDS‐7 as a potential screening tool for identifying probable cases of BED globally, facilitating early intervention in primary care settings.

Gewirtz‐Meydan, Ateret [School of Social Work, Fac↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results

Accurate representation of the turbulent exchange of carbon, water, and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere is critical for modelling global energy, water, and carbon cycles in both future climate projections and weather forecasts. Evaluation of models' ability to do this is performed in a wide range of simulation environments, often without explicit consideration of the degree of observational constraint or uncertainty and typically without quantification of benchmark performance expectations. We describe a Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) that attempts to resolve these shortcomings, comparing the surface turbulent heat flux predictions of around 20 different land models provided with in situ meteorological forcing evaluated with measured surface fluxes using quality-controlled data from 170 eddy-covariance-based flux tower sites. Predictions from seven out-of-sample empirical models are used to quantify the information available to land models in their forcing data and so the potential for land model performance improvement. Sites with unusual behaviour, complicated processes, poor data quality, or uncommon flux magnitude are more difficult to predict for both mechanistic and empirical models, providing a means of fairer assessment of land model performance. When examining observational uncertainty, model performance does not appear to improve in low-turbulence periods or with energy-balance-corrected flux tower data, and indeed some results raise questions about whether the energy balance correction process itself is appropriate. In all cases the results are broadly consistent, with simple out-of-sample empirical models, including linear regression, comfortably outperforming mechanistic land models. In all but two cases, latent heat flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 are better predicted by land models than sensible heat flux, despite it seeming to have fewer physical controlling processes. Land models that are implemented in Earth system models also appear to perform notably better than stand-alone ecosystem (including demographic) models, at least in terms of the fluxes examined here. The approach we outline enables isolation of the locations and conditions under which model developers can know that a land model can improve, allowing information pathways and discrete parameterisations in models to be identified and targeted for future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Simulations of Forest Hurricane Disturbance and Recovery in Puerto Rico by ELM-FATES Using Field Measurements

In the past three decades, Puerto Rico (PR) experienced five hurricanes that met or exceeded category three, and they caused severe forest structural damage and elevated tree mortality. To improve our mechanistic understanding of hurricane impacts on tropical forests and assess hurricane-affected forest dynamics in Earth system models, we use in situ forest measurements at the Bisley Experimental Watersheds in Northeast PR to evaluate the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES). The observations show that before Hurricane Hugo, 77.3% of the aboveground biomass (AGB) is from the shade-tolerant plant function type (PFT). The Hugo-induced mortality rates are over ~50%, and they induce a ~39% AGB reduction, which recovers to a level like the pre-Hugo condition in 2014, following a second, lower intensity hurricane, Georges. We perform numerical experiments that simulate damage from Hugo and Georges on the forests, including defoliation, sapwood and structural biomass damage, and hurricane-induced mortality. ELM-FATES can reasonably represent coexistence between the two PFTs–light-demanding and shade-tolerant–for both the pre-Hugo and post-Hugo conditions. The model represents a reasonable size distribution of mid-and large-sized trees although it underestimates AGB, likely due to the overestimated nonhurricane mortality. ELM-FATES temporarily stimulated leaf biomass and diameter increment after Georges, an effect that should be tested with observations of future hurricane defoliation events. This research indicates that addressing model-data mismatches in tree mortality and understory dynamics are essential to simulation of more extreme hurricane effects under climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tree architectural characteristics and stem and leaf functional traits for 17 individuals in the Central Amazon

Given recent increases in tree mortality rates in the Amazon forest following extreme drought and wind events, we tested if lower wood density and acquisitive plant functional traits were associated with increased growth and mortality for common co-occurring trees in the Central Amazon. Research was conducted at the ZF2 Research Station located north or Manaus, Brazil, managed by the Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA). Seventeen trees of different species with similar sizes but a range in wood density (WD) and wood traits were felled, then assessed for 27 different individual functional parameters, including whole tree architecture, stem xylem anatomical and hydraulic traits and leaf traits. Wood logs were collected at DBH, 50% stem length and at 100% stem length (at the base of the canopy). For wood anatomy samples, n=3-6 subsamples from each height. For leaf samples, 30 leaves were collected from the upper sunlit canopy. The methodology is detailed in the accompanying manuscript. The trait data are summarized in this file: "Trait_Summary.CSV". Summary Trait code abbreviations and units are described in this file: "Sample_Info_Traits_Summary.CSV". Stem traits measured along the bole from the base of the tree (DBH, diameter breast height), mid-stem, and base of the canopy are described in these files: "Sapwood_Area_height.CSV"; "Species_Info_height.CSV"; "Sample_Info_height.CSV"

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

High dimensional predictions of suicide risk in 4.2 million US Veterans using ensemble transfer learning

We present an ensemble transfer learning method to predict suicide from Veterans Affairs (VA) electronic medical records (EMR). A diverse set of base models was trained to predict a binary outcome constructed from reported suicide, suicide attempt, and overdose diagnoses with varying choices of study design and prediction methodology. Each model used twenty cross-sectional and 190 longitudinal variables observed in eight time intervals covering 7.5 years prior to the time of prediction. Ensembles of seven base models were created and fine-tuned with ten variables expected to change with study design and outcome definition in order to predict suicide and combined outcome in a prospective cohort. The ensemble models achieved c-statistics of 0.73 on 2-year suicide risk and 0.83 on the combined outcome when predicting on a prospective cohort of ~4.2 M veterans. The ensembles rely on nonlinear base models trained using a matched retrospective nested case-control (Rcc) study cohort and show good calibration across a diversity of subgroups, including risk strata, age, sex, race, and level of healthcare utilization. In addition, a linear Rcc base model provided a rich set of biological predictors, including indicators of suicide, substance use disorder, mental health diagnoses and treatments, hypoxia and vascular damage, and demographics. Similar content being viewed by others

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mortality correlates with tree functional traits across a wood density gradient in the Central Amazon

Introduction: Understanding the mechanisms of tree mortality in tropical ecosystems remains challenging, in part due to the high diversity of tree species and the inherently stochastic nature of mortality. Plant functional traits offer a mechanistic link between plant physiology and performance, yet their ability to predict growth and mortality remains poorly understood. Given recent increases in tree mortality rates in the Amazon forest following extreme drought and wind events, we tested if lower wood density and acquisitive plant functional traits were associated with increased growth and mortality for common co-occurring trees in the Central Amazon. Methods: Seventeen trees of different species with similar sizes but a range in wood density (WD) and wood traits were felled, then assessed for 27 different individual functional parameters, including whole tree architecture, stem xylem anatomical and hydraulic traits and leaf traits. Traits of the individual trees were related to stand-level growth and mortality rates collected periodically over 30 years from nearby permanent inventory plots. Results: Higher wood density was associated with smaller leaf size, lower foliar base cations, lower stem water content and sapwood fraction, in agreement with the fast-slow plant economics spectrum. Lower wood density was associated with more acquisitive characteristics with greater hydraulic capacity and foliar nutrient concentrations, correlating with greater growth and mortality rates. Discussion: Our results show that lower wood density is part of a coordinated suite of traits linked to high resource acquisition, fast growth, and increased mortality risk, providing a functional framework for predicting species performance and forest vulnerability under future climate stress.

demographics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hot droughts in the Amazon provide a window to a future hypertropical climate

Tropical forests represent the warmest and wettest of Earth’s biomes, but with continued anthropogenic warming, they will be pushed to climate states with no current analogue. Droughts in the tropics are already becoming more intense as they occur at successively higher temperatures. Here, in this study, we synthesize multiple datasets to assess the effects of hot droughts on a central Amazon forest. First, a more than 30-year record of annually resolved forest demographic data from a selective logging experiment showed higher tree mortality during intense droughts, particularly among fast-growing pioneer species with low wood density. Second, analysis of ecophysiological field measurements from the 2015 and 2023 El Niño droughts identified a soil moisture threshold beyond which transpiration rates rapidly declined. As rainless days beyond this threshold continued, drought conditions intensified, increasing the potential for tree mortality from hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. Third, analyses from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 demonstrated that under high-emission scenarios, a large area of tropical forest will shift to a hotter ‘hypertropical’ climate by 2100. Last, under a hypertropical climate, temperature and moisture conditions during typical dry season months will more frequently exceed identified drought mortality thresholds, elevating the risk of forest dieback. Present-day hot droughts are harbingers of this emerging climate, offering a window for studying tropical forests under expected extreme future conditions.

drought↗