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At least 163 records · Page 9

Simulation of Stochastic Processes by Coupled ODE-PDE

A document discusses the emergence of randomness in solutions of coupled, fully deterministic ODE-PDE (ordinary differential equations-partial differential equations) due to failure of the Lipschitz condition as a new phenomenon. It is possible to exploit the special properties of ordinary differential equations (represented by an arbitrarily chosen, dynamical system) coupled with the corresponding Liouville equations (used to describe the evolution of initial uncertainties in terms of joint probability distribution) in order to simulate stochastic processes with the proscribed probability distributions. The important advantage of the proposed approach is that the simulation does not require a random-number generator.

Zak, Michail↗

A statistical approach to screening isotopic signatures in monitoring for underground nuclear explosions

The ability to differentiate between atmospheric radionuclide signatures from underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) and signals from other sources, such as medical isotope-production facilities and nuclear reactors, can be critical to the detection and monitoring of unannounced, low-yield nuclear events. Signatures having anomalously high amplitudes, compared to background levels, remain the best indicator in screening for a UNE. However, isotopic composition can further validate a suspected UNE signature, but separation from any atmospheric background composition is first necessary. To date, evaluating the challenges of performing this separation has typically involved comparing an observed background with a highly idealized deterministic model of radioxenon signature production by a UNE that does not consider the influence of post-detonation chemical/physical processes in the detonation cavity or the subsequent gas transport mechanisms that can also affect the isotopic composition of the detected gas signature. In addition, purely deterministic models, as previously employed, overlook the uncertainty inherent in estimating critical parameters characterizing the UNE and its detonation environment. In this paper, we create detailed, multi-parameter models of radionuclide evolution using the widely accepted England and Rider post-detonation radionuclide decay-chain network coupled to detailed models simulating physical production and transport processes affecting the gas signature. Because these models are governed by uncertain parameters including barometric fluctuations, realistic ranges of variation for each of the parameters influencing isotopic composition are then defined. A Latin-Hypercube sampling approach is used to obtain a random distribution of isotopic production and gas transport results associated with a given value of each parameter. We apply these results to background histories of two stations, one providing 4-isotope background measurements and the other providing two-isotope measurements associated with the 2013 DPRK announced UNE.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Piston geometry and stroke optimization for high efficiency propane spark ignition engines

Propane has unique properties and offers interesting characteristics for high-efficiency spark ignition engines. Its high volatility reduces or completely eliminates fuel-wall wetting and facilitates fuel air mixing. Furthermore, propane has a research octane number of 112 and a high octane sensitivity of 15. Finally, its laminar flame speed is on the same order as that of conventional gasoline, and it exhibits high dilution tolerance. Modern spark ignition internal combustion engines rely on fast combustion rates and high dilution to achieve high brake thermal efficiencies. To accomplish this, high stroke-to-bore ratios and high geometric compression ratios have been used in new engine designs. Therefore, propane’s relatively high laminar flame speeds, high knock resistance, and dilution tolerance make it an excellent candidate fuel for modern spark ignition engines. The objective of this work is to co-optimize the piston geometry and the engine stroke to maximize the efficiency of a spark-ignition engine fueled with propane. 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations employing the extended coherent flamelet model were used to study the parametric effects of piston shape and stroke length. A piston geometry based on high performing pistons was parameterized using four controlling parameters. The piston geometry and engine stroke design space was explored using deterministic and quasi-random sampling techniques. In conclusion, a Gaussian process regression model was built using the simulation data to explain the results observed.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Nuclear safety Enhanced: A Deep dive into current and future RAVEN applications

As the horizon of nuclear energy expands with the advent of small modular reactors, IV generation reactors, and fusion reactors, there is a growing perspective that the licensing process could benefit from a more comprehensive approach. Moving beyond traditional deterministic and PRA analysis might pave the way for a novel safety analysis paradigm propelled by the increasing computational power at our disposal. This paper explores different methodologies that can improve the outcomes of nuclear safety analysis. These range from uncertainty quantification techniques, aimed at enhancing the precision of safety margins, to deploying dynamic event trees by driving system code simulations, capturing the potential evolutions of severe accidents. These methodologies introduce innovative dimensions to safety analysis, considering the consequences of postulated events and the dynamics of accident sequences. However, they also bring forth challenges, especially in managing the complexity and sheer volume of potential scenarios. The paper touches upon some strategies to counter these challenges, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and continuous evolution in the face of emerging nuclear safety concerns. Additionally, the paper sheds light on the need for advanced tools to apply these methodologies. Among these tools is RAVEN, an open-source software designed for parametric and probabilistic analyses. Its core components, including distribution, sampler, and reduced order model, enable various applications, from risk assessment and mitigation to dynamic learning and plant control logic simulations.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Inherent Conservatism in Deterministic Quasi-Static Structural Analysis

The cause of the long-suspected excessive conservatism in the prevailing structural deterministic safety factor has been identified as an inherent violation of the error propagation laws when reducing statistical data to deterministic values and then combining them algebraically through successive structural computational processes. These errors are restricted to the applied stress computations, and because mean and variations of the tolerance limit format are added, the errors are positive, serially cumulative, and excessively conservative. Reliability methods circumvent these errors and provide more efficient and uniform safe structures. The document is a tutorial on the deficiencies and nature of the current safety factor and of its improvement and transition to absolute reliability.

Verderaime, V.↗

A Fast Hybrid (3-D/1-D) Model for Thermal Radiative Transfer in Cirrus via Successive Orders of Scattering

We investigate the impact of cirrus cloud heterogeneity on the direct emission by cloud or surface and on the scattering by ice particles in the thermal infrared (TIR). Realistic 3-D cirri are modeled with the 3DCLOUD code, and top-of-atmosphere radiances are simulated by the 3-D Monte Carlo radiative transfer (RT) algorithm 3DMCPOL for two (8.65 micrometers and 12.05 micrometers) channels of the Imaging Infrared Radiometer on CALIPSO. At nadir, comparisons of 1-D and 3-D RT show that 3-D radiances are larger than their 1-D counterparts for direct emission but smaller for scattered radiation. For our cirrus cases, 99% of the 3-D total radiance is computed by the third scattering order, which corresponds to 90% of the total computational effort, but larger optical thicknesses need more scattering orders. To radically accelerate the 3-D RT computations (using only few percent of 3-D RT time with a Monte Carlo code), even in the presence of large optical depths, we develop a hybrid model based on exact 3-D direct emission, the first scattering order from 1-D in each homogenized column, and an empirical adjustment linearly dependent on the optical thickness to account for higher scattering orders. Good agreement is found between the hybrid model and the exact 3-D radiances for two very different cirrus models without changing the empirical parameters. We anticipate that a future deterministic implementation of the hybrid model will be fast enough to process multiangle thermal imagery in a practical tomographic reconstruction of 3-D cirrus fields.

radiative transfer↗

Deterministic fabrication of 3D/2D perovskite bilayer stacks for durable and efficient solar cells

Realizing solution-processed heterostructures is a long-enduring challenge in halide perovskites because of solvent incompatibilities that disrupt the underlying layer. By leveraging the solvent dielectric constant and Gutmann donor number, we could grow phase-pure two-dimensional (2D) halide perovskite stacks of the desired composition, thickness, and bandgap onto 3D perovskites without dissolving the underlying substrate. Characterization reveals a 3D–2D transition region of 20 nanometers mainly determined by the roughness of the bottom 3D layer. Thickness dependence of the 2D perovskite layer reveals the anticipated trends for n-i-p and p-i-n architectures, which is consistent with band alignment and carrier transport limits for 2D perovskites. Here we measured a photovoltaic efficiency of 24.5%, with exceptional stability of T 99 (time required to preserve 99% of initial photovoltaic efficiency) of >2000 hours, implying that the 3D/2D bilayer inherits the intrinsic durability of 2D perovskite without compromising efficiency.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Hydraulic Properties Data Package for the E-Area Soils, Cementitious Materials, and Waste Zones–Update

Hydraulic property estimates for the soils, cementitious materials, and waste zones associated with the E-Area low-level radioactive waste disposal units have been provided to support the Performance Assessments (PA) for the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (LLWF). Nominal or “best estimate” hydraulic property values for use in the deterministic modeling are provided along with representations of the hydraulic property value uncertainty for use in sensitivity and uncertainty modeling. The hydraulic properties provided for each of the E-Area materials include: porosity ( η ), dry bulk density ( ρ b ), particle density (ρ p ), saturated hydraulic conductivity ( K sat ), characteristic curves (suction head, saturation, and relative permeability), and effective diffusion coefficient ( D e ). A representation of the uncertainty associated with each property, except for the characteristic curves, is provided for each material, except for the E-Area waste zones. These nominal parameter values for each of the E-Area soils, cementitious materials, and waste zones, and, where indicated, parameter uncertainty representations, are based upon the following in order of priority: Site-specific field data, Site-specific laboratory data, Similarity to material with site-specific field or laboratory data, and Literature data. Additionally, a methodology to represent long-term concrete degradation is provided. Finally, because much of the nominal hydraulic property values and uncertainty representations for the E-Area soils, cementitious materials, and waste zones are based on similarity to other materials or literature data, a methodology to prioritize additional work to better define these values and representations is outlined. Prioritization should be based on the importance of the material and/or property to the results of deterministic, sensitivity, and uncertainty modeling. This prioritization should be established through a process of sensitivity modeling. This report supersedes the previous hydraulic properties data package. Revision 1 contains clarifications, updates and corrections to text, figures and tables in a number of places in the report along with some minor editing.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Risk-Informed Initiating Events and Accident Response

Emerging nuclear technologies and advanced reactor developments have brought proposed changes to the regulatory framework which can be leveraged to improve safety implementation and regulatory oversight processes at existing operating nuclear power plants. Specifically, opportunities exist to make plants’ regulatory compliance processes more efficient. This can be done by decreasing reliance on purely deterministic and prescriptive approaches and expansion of the use of risk informed and performance-based approaches to demonstrate reactor safety while achieving economic gains and efficiencies. In this report, we researched possibilities of economic benefits potentially available from the application of concepts associated with a modernized regulatory framework developed for advanced reactors to the existing light water reactors. We used timing factors to demonstrate the complexity of the existing risk assessments and described how these complexities affect regulatory compliance activities at the plants. We also investigated regulatory framework for both existing and new reactors and provided an overview of potential improvements. Lastly, we evaluated various areas of existing plant operations where modernization of compliance activities can offer substantial benefits.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Analysis of Spacelab 3 residual acceleration data

A data reduction plan is being developed to efficiently process residual acceleration data, making such data more accessible to principal investigators of low-gravity experiments. Accelerometer data collected during the Spacelab 3 mission is being processed using a prototype version of this plan. The plan addresses various aspects of acceleration data analysis: the identification of disturbances that are intolerable to experiments, the investigation of acceleration orientations, the definition and characterization of the background acceleration corresponding to a given experiment time line, the isolation and examination of particular significant disturbances, and the identification of disturbance sources. Acceleration magnitude, frequency, and orientation are discussed: transient accelerations can have magnitudes as large as 0.01 g with frequency components no greater than 0.001 g. These accelerations fluctuate rapidly in orientation. The occurrence of disturbance sources in an orbiter is tentatively identified as a random process, whereas the response of the orbiter to given accelerations is considered deterministic. The need to continue monitoring of residual accelerations in orbiting space laboratories is stressed.

Rogers, Melissa J. B.↗

Probabilistic Structural Evaluation of Uncertainties in Radiator Sandwich Panel Design

The Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO) Space System is part of the NASA's Prometheus Program. As part of the JIMO engineering team at NASA Glenn Research Center, the structural design of the JIMO Heat Rejection Subsystem (HRS) is evaluated. An initial goal of this study was to perform sensitivity analyses to determine the relative importance of the input variables on the structural responses of the radiator panel. The desire was to let the sensitivity analysis information identify the important parameters. The probabilistic analysis methods illustrated here support this objective. The probabilistic structural performance evaluation of a HRS radiator sandwich panel was performed. The radiator panel structural performance was assessed in the presence of uncertainties in the loading, fabrication process variables, and material properties. The stress and displacement contours of the deterministic structural analysis at mean probability was performed and results presented. It is followed by a probabilistic evaluation to determine the effect of the primitive variables on the radiator panel structural performance. Based on uncertainties in material properties, structural geometry and loading, the results of the displacement and stress analysis are used as an input file for the probabilistic analysis of the panel. The sensitivity of the structural responses, such as maximum displacement and maximum tensile and compressive stresses of the facesheet in x and y directions and maximum VonMises stresses of the tube, to the loading and design variables is determined under the boundary condition where all edges of the radiator panel are pinned. Based on this study, design critical material and geometric parameters of the considered sandwich panel are identified.

Kuguoglu, Latife↗

Organic molecules are deterministically assembled in variably inundated river sediments, but drivers remain unclear

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is central to ecosystem function. A fundamental challenge is understanding the processes leading to variation in the chemistry of organic molecules that comprise DOM. Here we study these processes in variably inundated riverbed sediments, as an understudied, yet ubiquitous component of rivers. Using null-model approaches adopted from community ecology, we found that within-site variation in environmental conditions caused non-random (i.e., deterministic) shifts in DOM chemistry. Deterministic shifts were observed across diverse biomes, though the strength of determinism varied substantially. We found that the strength of determinism decreased with increasing sediment moisture, but in the form of a constraint space. Many systems fell below the upper constraint boundary, however. We propose a conceptual model based on our results and other publications in which DOM assemblages are hypothesized to be increasingly deterministic across the continuum from the river water column to saturated sediment pore spaces to unsaturated and dry soils/sediments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The LLNL nuclear data infrastructure for the GNDS data format

The next generation of nuclear data infrastructure tools at the Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) consists of pipeline of codes that read and process nuclear data from evaluated files saved in the new GNDS (Generalised Nuclear Data Structure) nuclear data format. The processing code FUDGE (For Updating Data and Generating Evaluations) is at the front-end of this pipeline as it reads and process the evaluated data for use in downstream transport codes. FUDGE is Python based with C and C++ extensions for computationally intensive tasks. As is the case for the evaluated data, the processed output is also saved in the GNDS format and the GIDI+ API is provided as the interface between the processed data and the transport codes. GIDI+ is a C++ based suite of codes and it includes GIDI (General Interaction Data Interface), a library for reading and writing GNDS data, and MCGIDI which is the cross section lookup, and reaction and product distribution sampling interface between Monte Carlo transport codes and the GNDS data. GIDI provides methods for easy access to the multi-group processed GNDS data and this is demonstrated through its implementation in ARDRA, the LLNL deterministic transport code. The evaluation and sampling methods in MCGIDI are available as both CPU and GPU methods which facilitates the use of MCGIDI in both traditional CPU-based as well as the next generation mixed model computational architectures. This is demonstrated through the GIDI+ implementation in MERCURY, the LLNL Monte Carlo transport code. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Nuclear Materials Process Modeling at the Y-12 National Security Complex

The Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) has implemented process modeling for various accountable nuclear materials operations that are performed throughout the plant. Using a discrete, event-based dynamic simulation program, key nuclear material streams are modeled, allowing Y-12 to effectively manage numerous points of interest within the plant’s production operations. Integration of the various material processes into a single, interdependent supply and demand model is one of the ongoing focuses within Y-12’s process modeling effort. The primary purpose of using dynamic simulation modeling is to allow for analysis of the nuclear materials inventories and forecasted supplies based on future demands. Analysis of these inventories includes capacity evaluation, bottleneck mitigation, and assessments of individual pieces of equipment to inform future facility investment decisions and associated project schedules. Modeling of the nuclear materials processes throughout the complex also allows for incorporation of changes relevant to production capabilities such as the upcoming transition of specific operations to the new Uranium Processing Facility. Prior to implementation of process modeling, Y-12 forecasted supply and demand of accountable nuclear materials streams using Microsoft Excel. With deterministic models such as Microsoft Excel, the annual forecasts, generated within data input condition parameters, can only provide a fixed point of data. Fixed data cannot simulate integrated material streams and account for the possibility of occurrences and other changes that dynamic simulations take into consideration. Y-12’s dynamic process modeling allows integrated simulations of multiple accountable nuclear materials processes, including supply and demand forecasting and analysis, and is a coordinated effort involving many steps of verification and validation (V&V), site briefings, testing, reporting, data mining, planning, and documentation that spans various programs throughout the Y-12 complex.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Deterministic Interfacial Cyclic Oxidation Spalling Model: Model Development and Parametric Response - Part 1

An equation has been developed to model the iterative scale growth and spalling process that occurs during cyclic oxidation of high temperature materials. Parabolic scale growth and spalling of a constant surface area fraction have been assumed. Interfacial spallation of the only the thickest segments was also postulated. This simplicity allowed for representation by a simple deterministic summation series. Inputs are the parabolic growth rate constant, the spall area fraction, oxide stoichiometry, and cycle duration. Outputs include the net weight change behavior, as well as the total amount of oxygen and metal consumed, the total amount of oxide spalled, and the mass fraction of oxide spalled. The outputs all follow typical well-behaved trends with the inputs and are in good agreement with previous interfacial models.

Smialek, James L.↗

Heralded Generation of Correlated Photon Pairs from CdS/CdSe/CdS Quantum Shells

Quantum information processing demands efficient quantum light sources (QLS) capable of producing high-fidelity single photons or entangled photon pairs. Single epitaxial quantum dots (QDs) have long been proven to be efficient sources of deterministic single photons; however, their production via molecular-beam epitaxy presents scalability challenges. Conversely, colloidal semiconductor QDs offer scalable solution processing and tunable photoluminescence, but suffer from broader linewidths and unstable emissions. This leads to spectrally inseparable emission from exciton (X) and biexciton (XX) states, complicating the production of single photons and triggered photon pairs. Here, in this work, we demonstrate that colloidal semiconductor quantum shells (QSs) achieve significant spectral separation (∼75–80 meV) and long temporal stability of X and XX emissive states, enabling the observation of exciton-biexciton bunching in colloidal QDs. Our low-temperature single-particle measurements show cascaded XX-X emission of single photon pairs for over 200 s, with minimal overlap between X and XX features. The X-XX distinguishability allows for an in-depth theoretical characterization of cross-correlation strength, placing it in perspective with photon pairs of epitaxial counterparts. These findings highlight a strong potential of semiconductor quantum shells for applications in quantum information processing.

biexciton↗

An explicitly solvable energy-conserving algorithm for pitch-angle scattering in magnetized plasmas

In this work, we develop an Explicitly Solvable Energy-Conserving (ESEC) algorithm for the Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) describing the pitch-angle scattering process in magnetized plasmas. The Cayley transform is used to calculate both the deterministic gyromotion and stochastic scattering, affording the algorithm to be explicitly solvable and exactly energy conserving. An unusual property of the SDE for pitch-angle scattering is that its coefficients diverge at the zero velocity and do not satisfy the global Lipschitz condition. Consequently, when standard numerical methods, such as the Euler-Maruyama (EM), are applied, numerical convergence is difficult to establish. For the proposed ESEC algorithm, its energy-preserving property enables us to overcome this obstacle. We rigorously prove that the ESEC algorithm is order 1/2 strongly convergent. This result is confirmed by detailed numerical studies. For the case of pitch-angle scattering in a magnetized plasma with a constant magnetic field, the numerical solution is benchmarked against the analytical solution, and excellent agreements are found.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A semi-analytical model for laser induced densification in fused silica at elevated temperatures

A semi-analytical model for deterministic surface smoothing of fused silica below the evaporation temperature threshold is presented. Using this model, a method for calculating deterministic track depths for laser polishing fused silica is derived and validated with experiments. In this work, model predictions were in good agreement with experiment across varying laser preheating temperature and power. With the semi-analytical method presented here, deterministic laser smoothing can be achieved in the densification regime to close the process loop of laser polishing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗