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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of early nonpharmaceutical interventions aimed at slowing transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Navajo Nation and surrounding states (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah)

During an early period of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Navajo Nation, much like New York City, experienced a relatively high rate of disease transmission. Yet, between January and October 2020, it experienced only a single period of growth in new COVID-19 cases, which ended when cases peaked in May 2020. The daily number of new cases slowly decayed in the summer of 2020 until late September 2020. In contrast, the surrounding states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah all experienced at least two periods of growth in the same time frame, with second surges beginning in late May to early June. Here, we investigated these differences in disease transmission dynamics with the objective of quantifying the contributions of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (e.g., behaviors that limit disease transmission). We considered a compartmental model accounting for distinct periods of NPIs to analyze the epidemic in each of the five regions. We used Bayesian inference to estimate region-specific model parameters from regional surveillance data (daily reports of new COVID-19 cases) and to quantify uncertainty in parameter estimates and model predictions. Our results suggest that NPIs in the Navajo Nation were sustained over the period of interest, whereas in the surrounding states, NPIs were relaxed, which allowed for subsequent surges in cases. Our region-specific model parameterizations allow us to quantify the impacts of NPIs on disease incidence in the regions of interest.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mouse models of Ebola virus tolerance and lethality: characterization of CD-1 mice infected with wild-type, guinea pig-adapted, or mouse-adapted virus

Development of lethal models of Ebola virus disease has been achieved by the serial passage of virus isolates from human cases in mice and guinea pigs. Use of mice infected with non-adapted virus has been limited due to the absence of overt clinical disease. In recent years, newly recognized sequelae identified in human cases has highlighted the importance of continued investigations of non-lethal infection both in humans and animal models. Here, we revisit the use of rodent-adapted and non-adapted Ebola virus (EBOV) in mice to investigate infection tolerance and future utility of these models in pathogenesis and therapeutic intervention studies. We found that like non-adapted wild-type EBOV, guinea pig-adapted EBOV resulted in widespread tissue infection, variably associated with tissue pathology, and alterations in clinical and immunological analytes in the absence of overt disease. Notably, infection with either non-lethal variant did not greatly differ from lethal mouse-adapted EBOV until near the time end-point criteria are reached in these mice. Furthermore, these data support future investigations of pathogenesis, convalescence, and sequelae in mouse models of virus tolerance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fusing time-varying mosquito data and continuous mosquito population dynamics models

Climate change is arguably one of the most pressing issues affecting the world today and requires the fusion of disparate data streams to accurately model its impacts. Mosquito populations respond to temperature and precipitation in a nonlinear way, making predicting climate impacts on mosquito-borne diseases an ongoing challenge. Data-driven approaches for accurately modeling mosquito populations are needed for predicting mosquito-borne disease risk under climate change scenarios. Many current models for disease transmission are continuous and autonomous, while mosquito data is discrete and varies both within and between seasons. This study uses an optimization framework to fit a non-autonomous logistic model with periodic net growth rate and carrying capacity parameters for 15 years of daily mosquito time-series data from the Greater Toronto Area of Canada. The resulting parameters accurately capture the inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability of mosquito populations within a single geographic region, and a variance-based sensitivity analysis highlights the influence each parameter has on the peak magnitude and timing of the mosquito season. This method can easily extend to other geographic regions and be integrated into a larger disease transmission model. This method addresses the ongoing challenges of data and model fusion by serving as a link between discrete time-series data and continuous differential equations for mosquito-borne epidemiology models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

ProZES: the methodology and software tool for assessment of assigned share of radiation in probability of cancer occurrence

ProZES is a software tool for estimating the probability that a given cancer was caused by preceding exposure to ionising radiation. ProZES calculates this probability, the assigned share, for solid cancers and hematopoietic malignant diseases, in cases of exposures to low-LET radiation, and for lung cancer in cases of exposure to radon. User-specified inputs include birth year, sex, type of diagnosed cancer, age at diagnosis, radiation exposure history and characteristics, and smoking behaviour for lung cancer. Cancer risk models are an essential part of ProZES. Linking disease and exposure to radiation involves several methodological aspects, and assessment of uncertainties received particular attention. ProZES systematically uses the principle of multi-model inference. Models of radiation risk were either newly developed or critically re-evaluated for ProZES, including dedicated models for frequent types of cancer and, for less common diseases, models for groups of functionally similar cancer sites. The low-LET models originate mostly from the study of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Risks predicted by these models are adjusted to be applicable to the population of Germany and to different time periods. Adjustment factors for low dose rates and for a reduced risk during the minimum latency time between exposure and cancer are also applied. The development of the methodology and software was initiated and supported by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) taking up advice by the German Commission on Radiological Protection (SSK, Strahlenschutzkommission). These provide the scientific basis to support decision making on compensation claims regarding malignancies following occupational exposure to radiation in Germany.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sustainability Trait Modeling of Field-Grown Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) Using UAV-Based Imagery

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) provide an intermediate scale of spatial and spectral data collection that yields increased accuracy and consistency in data collection for morphological and physiological traits than satellites and expanded flexibility and high-throughput compared to ground-based data collection. In this study, we used UAV-based remote sensing for automated phenotyping of field-grown switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), a leading bioenergy feedstock. Using vegetation indices calculated from a UAV-based multispectral camera, statistical models were developed for rust disease caused by Puccinia novopanici, leaf chlorophyll, nitrogen, and lignin contents. For the first time, UAV remote sensing technology was used to explore the potentials for multiple traits associated with sustainable production of switchgrass, and one statistical model was developed for each individual trait based on the statistical correlation between vegetation indices and the corresponding trait. Also, for the first time, lignin content was estimated in switchgrass shoots via UAV-based multispectral image analysis and statistical analysis. The UAV-based models were verified by ground-truthing via correlation analysis between the traits measured manually on the ground-based with UAV-based data. The normalized difference red edge (NDRE) vegetation index outperformed the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for rust disease and nitrogen content, while NDVI performed better than NDRE for chlorophyll and lignin content. Overall, linear models were sufficient for rust disease and chlorophyll analysis, but for nitrogen and lignin contents, nonlinear models achieved better results. As the first comprehensive study to model switchgrass sustainability traits from UAV-based remote sensing, these results suggest that this methodology can be utilized for switchgrass high-throughput phenotyping in the field.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

DeepCare: Improving Patient Care using Deep Learning on Electronic Health Records

Coordinating patient care using electronic health records (EHR) data presents an exciting but formidable opportunity in data extraction, analysis and modeling. Traditional methods use a manual feature driven approach to model patients with age, family history and symptoms to predict disease outcomes. We propose a novel approach to model patients based on their streaming electronic health records data combined with information from medical knowledge bases, which has been gained over years of medical research. Using a combination of representation learning and long short term memory (LSTM) networks we plan to model patient evolution over time, leading to more accurate and individualized predictive models for patient’s diseases. Our approach will be transformative in providing critical decision support for patient care, enabling accurate understanding and evolution of diseases in patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparative analysis of the functional properties of human and mouse ferroportin

Ferroportin (Fpn)—expressed at the plasma membrane of macrophages, enterocytes, and hepatocytes—mediates the transfer of cellular iron into the blood plasma. Under the control of the iron-regulatory hormone hepcidin, Fpn serves a critical role in systemic iron homeostasis. Although we have previously characterized human Fpn, a great deal of research in iron homeostasis and disorders uses mouse models. By way of example, the flatiron mouse, a model of classical ferroportin disease, bears the mutation H32R in Fpn and is characterized by systemic iron deficiency and macrophage iron retention. The flatiron mouse also appears to exhibit a manganese phenotype, raising the possibility that mouse Fpn serves a role in manganese metabolism. At odds with this observation, we have found that human Fpn does not transport manganese, so we considered the possibility that a species difference could explain this discrepancy. We tested the hypothesis that mouse but not human Fpn can transport manganese and performed a comparative analysis of mouse and human Fpn. We examined the functional properties of human Fpn, mouse Fpn, and mutant mouse Fpn by using radiotracer assays in RNA-injected Xenopus oocytes. We found that neither mouse nor human Fpn transports manganese. Mouse and human Fpn share identical properties with respect to substrate profile, calcium dependence, optimal pH, and hepcidin sensitivity. We have also demonstrated that Fpn is not an ATPase pump. Our findings validate the use of mouse models of ferroportin function in iron homeostasis and disease.

Cell Biology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Molecular architecture and functional dynamics of the pre-incision complex in nucleotide excision repair

Nucleotide excision repair (NER) is vital for genome integrity. Yet, our understanding of the complex NER protein machinery remains incomplete. Combining cryo-EM and XL-MS data with AlphaFold2 predictions, we build an integrative model of the NER pre-incision complex(PInC). Here TFIIH serves as a molecular ruler, defining the DNA bubble size and precisely positioning the XPG and XPF nucleases for incision. Using simulations and graph theoretical analyses, we unveil PInC’s assembly, global motions, and partitioning into dynamic communities. Remarkably, XPG caps XPD’s DNA-binding groove and bridges both junctions of the DNA bubble, suggesting a novel coordination mechanism of PInC’s dual incision. XPA rigging interlaces XPF/ERCC1 with RPA, XPD, XPB, and 5' ssDNA, exposing XPA’s crucial role in licensing the XPF/ERCC1 incision. Mapping disease mutations onto our models reveals clustering into distinct mechanistic classes, elucidating xeroderma pigmentosum and Cockayne syndrome disease etiology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

NANO.PTML model for read-across prediction of nanosystems in neurosciences. computational model and experimental case of study

Abstract Neurodegenerative diseases involve progressive neuronal death. Traditional treatments often struggle due to solubility, bioavailability, and crossing the Blood-Brain Barrier (BBB). Nanoparticles (NPs) in biomedical field are garnering growing attention as neurodegenerative disease drugs (NDDs) carrier to the central nervous system. Here, we introduced computational and experimental analysis. In the computational study, a specific IFPTML technique was used, which combined Information Fusion (IF) + Perturbation Theory (PT) + Machine Learning (ML) to select the most promising Nanoparticle Neuronal Disease Drug Delivery (N2D3) systems. For the application of IFPTML model in the nanoscience, NANO.PTML is used. IF-process was carried out between 4403 NDDs assays and 260 cytotoxicity NP assays conducting a dataset of 500,000 cases. The optimal IFPTML was the Decision Tree (DT) algorithm which shown satisfactory performance with specificity values of 96.4% and 96.2%, and sensitivity values of 79.3% and 75.7% in the training (375k/75%) and validation (125k/25%) set. Moreover, the DT model obtained Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) scores of 0.97 and 0.96 in the training and validation series, highlighting its effectiveness in classification tasks. In the experimental part, two samples of NPs (Fe 3 O 4 _A and Fe 3 O 4 _B) were synthesized by thermal decomposition of an iron(III) oleate (FeOl) precursor and structurally characterized by different methods. Additionally, in order to make the as-synthesized hydrophobic NPs (Fe 3 O 4 _A and Fe 3 O 4 _B) soluble in water the amphiphilic CTAB (Cetyl Trimethyl Ammonium Bromide) molecule was employed. Therefore, to conduct a study with a wider range of NP system variants, an experimental illustrative simulation experiment was performed using the IFPTML-DT model. For this, a set of 500,000 prediction dataset was created. The outcome of this experiment highlighted certain NANO.PTML systems as promising candidates for further investigation. The NANO.PTML approach holds potential to accelerate experimental investigations and offer initial insights into various NP and NDDs compounds, serving as an efficient alternative to time-consuming trial-and-error procedures.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive models of long COVID

Background: The cause and symptoms of long COVID are poorly understood. It is challenging to predict whether a given COVID-19 patient will develop long COVID in the future. Methods: We used electronic health record (EHR) data from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative to predict the incidence of long COVID. We trained two machine learning (ML) models — logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF). Features used to train predictors included symptoms and drugs ordered during acute infection, measures of COVID-19 treatment, pre-COVID comorbidities, and demographic information. We assigned the ‘long COVID’ label to patients diagnosed with the U09.9 ICD10-CM code. The cohorts included patients with (a) EHRs reported from data partners using U09.9 ICD10-CM code and (b) at least one EHR in each feature category. We analysed three cohorts: all patients (n = 2,190,579; diagnosed with long COVID = 17,036), inpatients (149,319; 3,295), and outpatients (2,041,260; 13,741). Findings: LR and RF models yielded median AUROC of 0.76 and 0.75, respectively. Ablation study revealed that drugs had the highest influence on the prediction task. The SHAP method identified age, gender, cough, fatigue, albuterol, obesity, diabetes, and chronic lung disease as explanatory features. Models trained on data from one N3C partner and tested on data from the other partners had average AUROC of 0.75. Interpretation: ML-based classification using EHR information from the acute infection period is effective in predicting long COVID. SHAP methods identified important features for prediction. Cross-site analysis demonstrated the generalizability of the proposed methodology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

O-GlcNAc forces an α-synuclein amyloid strain with notably diminished seeding and pathology

Amyloid-forming proteins such α-synuclein and tau, which are implicated in Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s disease, can form different fibril structures or strains with distinct toxic properties, seeding activities and pathology. Understanding the determinants contributing to the formation of different amyloid features could open new avenues for developing disease-specific diagnostics and therapies. Here we report that O-GlcNAc modification of α-synuclein monomers results in the formation of amyloid fibril with distinct core structure, as revealed by cryogenic electron microscopy, and diminished seeding activity in seeding-based neuronal and rodent models of Parkinson’s disease. Although the mechanisms underpinning the seeding neutralization activity of the O-GlcNAc-modified fibrils remain unclear, our in vitro mechanistic studies indicate that heat shock proteins interactions with O-GlcNAc fibril inhibit their seeding activity, suggesting that the O-GlcNAc modification may alter the interactome of the α-synuclein fibrils in ways that lead to reduce seeding activity in vivo. Our results show that posttranslational modifications, such as O-GlcNAc modification, of α-synuclein are key determinants of α-synuclein amyloid strains and pathogenicity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regional Relative Risk, a Physics-Based Metric for Characterizing Airborne Infectious Disease Transmission

Airborne infectious disease transmission events occur over a wide range of spatial scales and can be an important means of disease transmission. Physics- and biology-based models can assist in predicting airborne transmission events, overall disease incidence, and disease control strategy efficacy. We describe a new theory that extends current approaches for the case in which an individual is infected by a single airborne particle, including the scenario in which numerous infectious particles are present in the air but only one causes infection. A single infectious particle can contain more than one pathogenic microorganism and be physically larger than the pathogen itself. This approach allows robust relative risk estimates even when there is wide variation in (i) individual exposures and (ii) the individual response to that exposure (the pathogen dose-response function can take any mathematical form and vary by individual). Based on this theory, we propose the regional relative risk—a new metric, distinct from the traditional relative risk metric, that compares the risk between two regions. In theory, these regions can range from individual rooms to large geographic areas. In this paper, we apply the regional relative risk metric to outdoor disease transmission events over spatial scales ranging from 50 m to 20 km, demonstrating that in many common cases minimal input information is required to use the metric. Also, we demonstrate that the model predictions are consistent with data from prior outbreaks. Future efforts could apply and validate this theory for other spatial scales, such as transmission within indoor environments. This work provides context for (i) the initial stages of an airborne disease outbreak and (ii) larger-scale disease spread, including unexpected low-probability disease “sparks” that potentially affect remote populations, a key practical issue in controlling airborne disease outbreaks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of a reconfiguration of the InterSpread Plus US national FMD model as a potential tool to analyze a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak on a single large cattle feedlot in the United States

An incursion of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) into the United States remains a concern of high importance and would have devastating socioeconomic impacts to the livestock and associated industries. This highly transmissible and infectious disease poses continual risk for introduction into the United States (US), due to the legal and illegal global movement of people, animals, and animal products. While stamping out has been shown to effectively control FMD, depopulation of large cattle feedlots (>50,000 head) presents a number of challenges for responders due to the resources required to depopulate and dispose of large numbers of animals in a timely and effective manner. However, evaluating alternative strategies for FMD control on large feedlots requires a detailed within-farm modeling approach, which can account for the unique structure of these operations. To address this, we developed a single feedlot, within-farm spread model using a novel configuration within the InterSpread Plus (ISP) framework. As proof of concept we designed six scenarios: (i) depopulation - the complete depopulation of the feedlot, (ii) burn-through – a managed “burn-through” where the virus is allowed to spread through the feedlot and only movement restriction and biosecurity are implemented, (iii) firebreak-NV – targeted depopulation of infected pens and adjacent pens without vaccination; (iv) firebreak - targeted depopulation of infected pens and adjacent pens with vaccination of remaining pens; (v) harvest-NV - selective harvest of pens where a 100% movement restriction is applied for 28-30 days, then pens are set for selection to be sent to slaughter, while allowing a controlled “burn-through” without vaccination; and (vi) harvest - selective harvest of pens with vaccination. Overall, the burn-through scenario (ii) had the shortest epidemic duration (31d (30, 33)) median (25th, 75th percentiles), while the firebreak scenario (iv) had the longest (47d (38,55)). Additionally, we found that scenarios implementing depopulation delayed the peak day of infection and reduced the total number of pens infected compared to non-depopulation scenarios.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Insights into pulmonary phosphate homeostasis and osteoclastogenesis emerge from the study of pulmonary alveolar microlithiasis

Pulmonary alveolar microlithiasis is an autosomal recessive lung disease caused by a deficiency in the pulmonary epithelial Npt2b sodium-phosphate co-transporter that results in accumulation of phosphate and formation of hydroxyapatite microliths in the alveolar space. The single cell transcriptomic analysis of a pulmonary alveolar microlithiasis lung explant showing a robust osteoclast gene signature in alveolar monocytes and the finding that calcium phosphate microliths contain a rich protein and lipid matrix that includes bone resorbing osteoclast enzymes and other proteins suggested a role for osteoclast-like cells in the host response to microliths. While investigating the mechanisms of microlith clearance, we found that Npt2b modulates pulmonary phosphate homeostasis through effects on alternative phosphate transporter activity and alveolar osteoprotegerin, and that microliths induce osteoclast formation and activation in a receptor activator of nuclear factor-κB ligand and dietary phosphate dependent manner. This work reveals that Npt2b and pulmonary osteoclast-like cells play key roles in pulmonary homeostasis and suggest potential new therapeutic targets for the treatment of lung disease.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The development of Nanosota-1 as anti-SARS-CoV-2 nanobody drug candidates

Combating the COVID-19 pandemic requires potent and low-cost therapeutics. We identified a series of single-domain antibodies (i.e., nanobody), Nanosota-1, from a camelid nanobody phage display library. Structural data showed that Nanosota-1 bound to the oft-hidden receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, blocking viral receptor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). The lead drug candidate possessing an Fc tag (Nanosota-1C-Fc) bound to SARS-CoV-2 RBD ~3000 times more tightly than ACE2 did and inhibited SARS-CoV-2 pseudovirus ~160 times more efficiently than ACE2 did. Administered at a single dose, Nanosota-1C-Fc demonstrated preventive and therapeutic efficacy against live SARS-CoV-2 infection in both hamster and mouse models. Unlike conventional antibodies, Nanosota-1C-Fc was produced at high yields in bacteria and had exceptional thermostability. Pharmacokinetic analysis of Nanosota-1C-Fc documented an excellent in vivo stability and a high tissue bioavailability. As effective and inexpensive drug candidates, Nanosota-1 may contribute to the battle against COVID-19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The onset of rare earth metallosis begins with renal gadolinium-rich nanoparticles from magnetic resonance imaging contrast agent exposure

The leitmotifs of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) contrast agent-induced complications range from acute kidney injury, symptoms associated with gadolinium exposure (SAGE)/gadolinium deposition disease, potentially fatal gadolinium encephalopathy, and irreversible systemic fibrosis. Gadolinium is the active ingredient of these contrast agents, a non-physiologic lanthanide metal. The mechanisms of MRI contrast agent-induced diseases are unknown. Mice were treated with a MRI contrast agent. Human kidney tissues from contrast-naïve and MRI contrast agent-treated patients were obtained and analyzed. Kidneys (human and mouse) were assessed with transmission electron microscopy and scanning transmission electron microscopy with X-ray energy-dispersive spectroscopy. MRI contrast agent treatment resulted in unilamellar vesicles and mitochondriopathy in renal epithelium. Electron-dense intracellular precipitates and the outer rim of lipid droplets were rich in gadolinium and phosphorus. We conclude that MRI contrast agents are not physiologically inert. The long-term safety of these synthetic metal–ligand complexes, especially with repeated use, should be studied further.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predictive Risk Mapping of Schistosomiasis in Madagascar Using Ecological Niche Modeling and Precision Mapping

Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) found throughout tropical and subtropical Africa. In Madagascar, the condition is widespread and endemic in 74% of all administrative districts in the country. Despite the significant burden of the disease, high-resolution risk maps have yet to be produced to guide national control programs. This study used an ecological niche modeling (ENM) and precision mapping approach to estimate environmental suitability and disease transmission risk. The results show that suitability for schistosomiasis is widespread and covers 264,781 km 2 (102,232 sq miles). Covariates of significance to the model were the accessibility to cities, distance to water, enhanced vegetation index (EVI), annual mean temperature, land surface temperature (LST), clay content, and annual precipitation. Disease transmission risk is greatest in the central highlands, tropical east coast, arid-southwest, and northwest. An estimated 14.9 million people could be at risk of schistosomiasis; 11.4 million reside in rural areas, while 3.5 million are in urban areas. This study provides valuable insight into the geography of schistosomiasis in Madagascar and its potential risk to human populations. Because of the focal nature of the disease, these maps can inform national surveillance programs while improving understanding of areas in need of medical interventions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comprehensive compartmental model and calibration algorithm for the study of clinical implications of the population-level spread of COVID-19: a study protocol

The complex dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has made obtaining reliable long-term forecasts of the disease progression difficult. Simple mechanistic models with deterministic parameters are useful for short-term predictions but have ultimately been unsuccessful in extrapolating the trajectory of the pandemic because of unmodelled dynamics and the unrealistic level of certainty that is assumed in the predictions. We propose a 22-compartment epidemiological model that includes compartments not previously considered concurrently, to account for the effects of vaccination, asymptomatic individuals, inadequate access to hospital care, post-acute COVID-19 and recovery with long-term health complications. Additionally, new connections between compartments introduce new dynamics to the system and provide a framework to study the sensitivity of model outputs to several concurrent effects, including temporary immunity, vaccination rate and vaccine effectiveness. Subject to data availability for a given region, we discuss a means by which population demographics (age, comorbidity, socioeconomic status, sex and geographical location) and clinically relevant information (different variants, different vaccines) can be incorporated within the 22-compartment framework. Considering a probabilistic interpretation of the parameters allows the model's predictions to reflect the current state of uncertainty about the model parameters and model states. We propose the use of a sparse Bayesian learning algorithm for parameter calibration and model selection. This methodology considers a combination of prescribed parameter prior distributions for parameters that are known to be essential to the modelled dynamics and automatic relevance determination priors for parameters whose relevance is questionable. This is useful as it helps prevent overfitting the available epidemiological data when calibrating the parameters of the proposed model. Population-level administrative health data will serve as partial observations of the model states.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗